11may2009 Isaf Eia Stats

8/3/2019 11may2009 Isaf Eia Stats

1/26

1

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Unclassified MetricsApril 2009

Strategic Advisory GroupHQ ISAF

Prepared on 9 May 09


2/26

2

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

28% increase in CF force strength5

38% increase in ANA force strength4

59% increase in CF offensive events1

64% increase in Insurgent Initiated Attacks1

80% of attacks occurred in 13% of the districts (Jan-Apr 09)1

IED events up 80% (IEDs caused 60% of casualties Jan-Apr 09)1

Security Summary(Statistics Compare January - April 2009 v. January - April 2008)

Footnotes on Sources:1JOIIS, 4 May.

2ANQAR Survey, 31 Mar.3CJOC CivCas cell, 2 May.4CSTC-A, 4 May.5CJ1, 3 May.

ANSF4

ANA: - 50 of 79 Kandak battalions capable of independent ops- Average of 83 total deliberate ops per week in 09 (37 in 08)

ANP: - Focused District Development: 52 districts completed training- 14 of 20 Civil Order Police Battalions fielded

ABP: - Focused Border Development: 2 cycles complete (20 companies)- 3rd and 4th Cycles underway (14 companies programmed)

Civilian Deaths: down 44%3

ISAF/OEF Deaths: up 55%1

ANSF Deaths: up 25%1

(Since Jan 07, ANPs suffered 1.8x more deaths than ANA+ISAF) Attacks on GIRoA officials & district centers: up 90%1

Kidnappings/Assassinations: down 17%1

Afghan Perceptions (Mar 09)2

35% of Afghans say security isbetter now than it was 6 months ago(last quarter survey results: 28%)

13% say security is worse than itwas 6 months ago (last quartersurvey results: 17%)

NATO/ISAF UNCLASSIFIED

Baluchistan

NWFP

FATA

Prepared on 5 May 09

January to April 2009Kinetic Activity Density PlotBy District

More Activity

Less Activity


3/26

3

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Average Daily Insurgent Initiated Attacks

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09

By Province, January 1, 2009 April 30, 2009

UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED

10.6

4.5

3.9

2.0

1.4 1.2

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.8

+0.2

+0.3-0.1

+0.3+0.2 -0.1+0.1+0.2 +0.1+0.1 +0.1 +0.1-0.1 +0.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Helmand

Kandahar

Kunar

Khost

Paktika

Uruzgan

Zabul

Ghazni

Farah

Kunduz

Wardak

Nangarhar

Kabul

Herat

Badghis

Nuristan

Lowgar

Laghman

Paktya

Nimroz

Kapisa

Balkh

Faryab

Badakhshan

Baghlan

Takhar

Parwan

Jawzjan

Ghor

Bamyan

SariPul

DayKundi

Panjsher

Samangan

The Number inside the bar indicates average daily insurgent initiated attacks (i.e. Helmandaveraged 10.6 attacks per day from Jan 09 Apr 09)

The Number on top of the bar indicates the change relative to last month (i.e. average daily

insurgent initiated attacks decreased by 0.8 per day in Helmand relative to last month)


4/26

4

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Jan

07

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

07

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

08


08


09

Feb Mar Apr

Direct Fire IEDs Indirect Fire Surface to Air Fire

Insurgent Attacks

Insurgent initiated attacks were up 64%

overall (Jan/Apr 09 v. Jan/Apr 08): Direct Fire attacks were up 57% Indirect Fire attacks were up 44% IEDs were up 81% Surface to Air Fire was up 103% Coalition Force offensive actions were up 59%

Kinetic events increased substantially this

year relative to the same period last year Deliberate increase in operational tempo byANSF and ISAF Milder winter Continued freedom of action for insurgents fromsanctuaries across the border


PoppyHarvest

Winter

PoppyHarvest

New PAK GOVnegotiates w /FATA tribes

WinterWinter Ramadan Ramadan

TB senior leader directionfor asymmetric attacks

INSAttacks

PoppyHarvest


5/26

5

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same period during 2008, IED discoveries (finds plus turn-ins)were up 75% Since January 2007, discoveries have accounted for 55% of all IED events

IED Events (Found and Detonated)

UNCLASS // REL USA ISAF NATOSource: JOIIS, 4 May 09NATO / ISAF UNCLASSIFIEDNATO / ISAF UNCLASSIFIED

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan

07

Mar May Jul

07

Sep Nov Jan

08

Mar May Jul

08

Sep Nov Jan

09

Mar

ISAF Finds ANSF Finds LN Turn-Ins Detonations


6/26

6

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

IED Related Casualties

Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same time period in 2008, total casualties from IEDs were

down 9% despite an 81% increase in IED events IEDs remain the leading cause of total casualties: 60% of casualties Jan-Apr 09

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jan

07

Mar May Jul

07

Sep Nov Jan

08

Mar May Jul

08

Sep Nov Jan

09

Mar

ISAF ANA ANP Civilians


7/26

7

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

2009 Pro-GIRoA Events (through April): 127 Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same time period in 2008, Pro-GIRoA Events were down 3%

Cache, IED turn-ins and anti-INS activity

Pro-GIRoA Events


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan

07


07


08


08


09

Feb Mar Apr

RC-E RC-S RC-W RC-N RC-C


8/26

8

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

0

20

40

60

80

100120

140

160

180

200

Jan

07


07


08


08


09

Feb Mar Apr

ISAF/OEF Responsible Insurgent Responsible

Conflict-Related Civilian Deaths Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same time period in 2008, civilian deaths were down 44%

Since Jan 07, insurgents have caused 80% of civilian deaths

Civilian Casualty TrackingCell Formed in CJOC

Standardized process toinvestigate incidents of reportedcivilian casualties

Source: ISAF CJOC, CIVCAS Cell, As of 2 May 09

Among the CivCas events for which responsibility has beenattributed to ISAF/OEF Forces, ROE / EOF events accountfor the greatest proportion of CivCas events but CAS events

have caused the greatest proportion of Civilian Deaths.

UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED

Jan 07 - Apr 09 20%

Jan 07 - Dec 07 19%

Jan 08 - Dec 08 20%Jul 08 - Apr 09 28%

Sep 08 - Apr 09 23%

Jan 09 - Apr 09 23%

ISAF ResponsibleYear 2009 Civililan Deaths (ISAF/OEF Responsible)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Troops in Contact -Close Air Support

Troops in Contact -Indirect Fire

Troops in Contact -Direct Fire

Road TrafficAccident

Rules ofEngagement /

Escalation of Force

CivCas Events (Caused by ISAF/OEF)

Civilians Killed (Caused by ISAF/OEF)


9/26

9

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

*Attributed to insurgent initiated attacks (direct fire, indirect fire, IEDs, and surface-to-air fire)

Military Deaths*

Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same time period in 2008:

Total military deaths were up 29%

ANSF deaths were up 24%

ISAF deaths were up 55%

Source: JOIIS, 4 May 09UNCLASSIFIEDUNCLASSIFIED

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan

07

Mar May Jul

07

Sep Nov Jan

08

Mar May Jul

08

Sep Nov Jan

09

Mar

ISAF ANA ANP


10/26

10

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan

07

Mar May Jul

07

Sep Nov Jan

08

Mar May Jul

08

Sep Nov Jan

09

Mar

CM1 CM2 CM3 CM4

ANA Increasingly Conducting and Leading Operations (53% in last 120 days)

109 of 160 units fielded; 87,300 assigned (will grow to 134,000 by Dec 2011) ANA Air Corps have over tripled monthly troop and cargo capacity since Feb 08

Air Corps flying 90% of all Afghan missions

CM1 Level Description

CM 1 BN Level Ops, IF2 Enables

CM 2 BN Level Ops with IF SptCM 3 Co Level Ops with IF Spt

CM 4 Unit Formed, No Capability

Apr 09:63% CM1/2

Jan 08:49% CM1/2Jan 07:

30% CM1/2

1

CM = Capability Milestone Rating2IF = International Forces

Source: CSTC-A, as of 4 May 09.

ANA Size and Capability

KANDAK CM / Location

ANA Growth

Jan 09:61% CM1/2

UNCLASSIFIED / FOUOUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

Confidence in ANA


11/26

11

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

26

19 19 18 19

13

2422

24

19

28 2831 32

34

30

48

56

27

41

35

2932

4341

44

38 38

44

3941

39

44 45 45 4442

66

75

34

7

12 11 12

18 19 17

2320

22 21

27

22 23

28 27

23 22 21

2830

27 28

36 36

4745 45

34

51

31 31

49

37 36 3739

47

42

32

0

20

40

60

80

3-Aug-08

10-Aug-08

17-Aug-08

24-Aug-08

31-Aug-08

7-Sep-08

14-Sep-08

21-Sep-08

28-Sep-08

5-Oct-08

12-Oct-08

19-Oct-08

26-Oct-08

2-Nov-08

9-Nov-08

16-Nov-08

23-Nov-08

30-Nov-08

7-Dec-08

14-Dec-08

21-Dec-08

28-Dec-08

4-Jan-09

11-Jan-09

18-Jan-09

25-Jan-09

1-Feb-09

8-Feb-09

15-Feb-09

22-Feb-09

1-Mar-09

8-Mar-09

15-Mar-09

22-Mar-09

29-Mar-09

5-Apr-09

12-Apr-09

19-Apr-09

26-Apr-09

3-May-09

Week Ending

#

OperationsperW

eek

ANSF Led Operations

Coalition Led Operations

ANSF is demonstrating increased capacity and capability to

lead Deliberate Operations. Increases in ANSF capability and end-strength should lead to

further increases in ANSF led Deliberate Operations.

A sharp increase in the number of coalition led operations

beginning in the summer of 2008 led to a reduction in the

percentage of operations the ANSF led.

In spite of ANSF increased capacity and capabilities, any

increase in Coalition Forces and their operations will result inthe continued percentage decline of ANSF led operations.

UNCLASSIFIED / FOUOUNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

Summary of 2009 Deliberate Operations

ANSF has led an average of 44 Deliberate Operations per week. Average of 83 total deliberate operations conducted per week. On average, the ANSF has led 53% of Deliberate Operationsconducted during a given week in 2009.

Summary of 2008 Deliberate Operations ANSF led an average of 22 Deliberate Operations per week. Average of 37 total Deliberate Operations conducted per week.

On average, the ANSF led 61% of Deliberate Operationsconducted during a given week in 2008.

Source: CSTC-A, as of 3 May 09

ANSF Deliberate Operations


12/26

12

NATO

OTAN

AP3 Overview District community councils select local protection forces Special Forces train the trainers ANSF train the Afghanistan Public Protection Force (APPF); Ministry ofInterior provides oversight Amplified by Wardak Governors information and media campaign Deployment of AP3 assets is coordinated between the ANP and theDistrict community council

Wardak Province, Jalreyz District AP3 Pilot Program

CommunitySelects APPF

Ph 0: Prepare Ph 1: Shape Ph 2: Clear Ph 3: Hold Ph 4: Build

Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 May 09

ANA District Security Ops DevelopmentProjects

APPFDeployment

Key Takeaway: AP3 is a pilot communityengagement program that relies on civilparticipation to enhance local security, denyinsurgent support, and extend governmentlegitimacy to the district level

APPF Jalreyz District243 pax / 47 villages 46% Tajik 38% Pashtun 16% Hazara

Afghanistan Public Protection Program (AP3) Update

UNCLASSIFIED

Wardak

Initial Districts

1 2

1: Jalreyz2: Maydan Shair3: Nerkh4: Chak-e Vardak5: Sayed Abad

APPF Training

Class 2:- Phase 1 training began 25 Apr

- 81 students from Jalreyz andMaydan Shahr)

Continuing to conduct shapingoperations in Nerkh and clear/holdoperations in Jalreyz

Forming plans for Chak-e Vardak- Conditions-based progression

34

5


13/26

13

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

68 68

19

35

28

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Operations Labs Destroyed

2008 Total

2008 Year-to-Date

2009 Year-to-Date

Counter-Narcotic Efforts

1,174

3,884

5,058

2,644

1,830

4,474

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Centrally Directed

Eradications

Governor Led

Eradications

Total Eradications

2008 Year-to-Date 2009 Year-to-Date

6,067

40 506909

0

6,411

2,717

17,935

3,906 3,846

32,065

1,490

19,320

2,317

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Opium Morphine Hashish Poppy Seed Cannabis

Seed

Chemical

Precursors

(kg)

Chemical

Precursors

(litres)

2008 Year-to-Date

2009 Year-to-Date

Source: ISAF CNOC, as of 2 May 09.

Interdictions

Seizures and Destructions

Eradications

Denied the Insurgency:

$US 1.7M(Farm-Gate Value, excludes chemicals)

Source: UNODC, Afghanistan Periodic Report on

Poppy Eradication Survey, 25 April 2009.

18%

59%235%


14/26

14

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Back upsQuarterly Metric Slides(as of 31 March 2009)


15/26

15

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Public Perception of Security (Mar 09)

How is the security situation in your local area?

Good Fair Bad

Source: ANQAR Survey; last version completed Mar 09.

Results from the last two surveys indicate a potential reversal in the downward trend of securityperceptions. As of March, 85% say the security situation in their local area is good or fair.

92%

82% 82%

64%

39%

45%44%

35%

39%43%

6%17% 15%

27%

48% 43%41%

47% 43% 42%

2% 1% 3% 9% 13% 12% 15% 18% 18% 15%

Sep

05

Dec

05

May

06

Sep

06

Jul

07

Apr

08

Jul

08

Sep

08

Dec

08

Mar

09Surveys conducted from Sep 05 to Mar 09


16/26

16

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Public Perception of Changes in Security

Perception of an improving security climate has increased two quarters in arow; 86% of Afghans believe security is the same or better in their mantaqa.


31% 29%40%

56% 60%51%

10% 9%8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Kabul Sep 08 Kabul Dec 08 Kabul Mar 09

Worse The Same Better No Answer / Refused

24% 28%35%

56%54%

51%

19% 17%13%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Nationwide Sep08

Nationwide Dec08

Nationwide Mar09

Is security in your mantaqa better, the same or worsethan it was 6 months ago?

Kabul Nationwide


17/26

17

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Freedom of Movement

Overall, nearly 7 in 10 Afghans feel at leasta little safe using the roads in their districts.

Public Perception: How safedo you feel driving outside your

Mantaqa during the day?

Source: ANQAR Survey, Mar 09

12%

26%

31%

20%

10%

1%

15%

25%

32%

19%

8%

1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Completely

Safe

Mostly Safe A Little Safe A Little Unsafe Very Unsafe Don't Know

Dec 08 Mar 09

Comparing Jan-Apr 09 to the same timeperiod in 2008, attacks within 500meters of ISAF routes were up 36%

Results of increased security measures(implemented Sep 08):

Fewer attacks on bridges

Less effective attacks

Attacks within 500m of ISAF Routes

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan

07


07

Au g S ep Oct Nov Dec Jan

08


08

Aug S ep Oct Nov Dec Jan

09

Feb Mar Apr



18/26

18

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with theprovision of roads?

Public Perception of Road Infrastructure

27%28%

15%

18%

12%

32%

24%

16%

18%

10%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Very Dissatisfied Somewhat

Dissatisfied

Neither Somewhat

Satisfied

Very Satisfied

Dec 08 Mar 09

Source: ANQAR Survey, Mar 09

943 kms of Regional, National and

Provincial Roads assessed Traffic volumes up 58%

Travel times decreased 74%

No. of businesses increased 56%;

Gross sales increased 400%

Household Income up 39%

Irrigated land increased 47%

School attendance up 8%

Health Clinic visits up 7%

Roads ImpactAssessment Report

Source: USAID, Roads Socio-Economic Impact

Assessment, May 6 August 8, 2008; comparesinformation collected from Summer 2008 againstbaseline data collected in 2003.


19/26

19

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Change Colours

Provides one-time block grants of $5,000 to $60,000 to local communities

Reaches 68% of Afghanistan's 31,000+ communities Forms democratically elected Community Development Council (CDC)

CDC conducts a reconstruction and development assessment for its villageand identifies projects and activities (46k projects approved; 25k completed)

NSP Coverage, By District (Mar 09)

Source: ISAF; MRRD; as of 30 Mar 09.

Adapts to Afghan local cultural and politicalenvironments

Provides broad coverage and good performancewith low-leakage rates

Engenders local buy-in (requires 10%community contribution); highly popular program

Serves as a front-line mechanism for the Holdand Build phases of the overall COIN strategy

Number of CDCs Elected asa Percent of CDCs Required

80 100%

60 80%

40 60%

20 40%

0%

Kinetic Event Density

Source: JOIIS; 6 Apr 09.

NATO

OTAN

CDC Not Required

National Solidarity Program

January to March 2009Kinetic Activity Density Plot

By DistrictMore Activity

Little to No Activity


20/26

20

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Education

9062 Schools in 2007; 10,998 in 2008

147,641 Teachers in 2007; 157,244 in 2008

26 million textbooks printed in 2008

Adult literacy program will serve 1,300communities 2008 2013

Adult literacy rate is ~ 28%(women ~ 12%; men ~ 43%)

MINISTRY OF EDUCATIONMINISTRY OF EDUCATION

ACCOMPLISHMENTSACCOMPLISHMENTS

Number of Students in School

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Boys

Girls

Access to Schools (Girls)Access to Schools (Boys)

60 - 80%

40 - 60%

20 - 40%

0 - 20%

80 - 100%

Are 6 to 14 year old children in yourhousehold going to school?


Percentresponding Yes


21/26

21

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Has your family's economic situation gottenbetter, stayed the same or gotten worse

compared to 12 months ago?

Economy & Essential Services

18%

53%

28%

2%

25%

53%

25%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Better The Same Worse Refused /

Don't Know

Dec 08 Mar 08

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2 0 03 2 0 04 2 00 5 200 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 08

Gross Licit Domestic Product

Billions

US$

Source:IMF

Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with the provision ofservices in the area?

(Percent responding satisfied or very satisfied)

29%

33%

35%

25%

28%30%

37%

22%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Water Healthcare Electricity Jobs/Employment

Dec 08 Mar 08


22/26

22

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

* Word used in Dari & Pashto to encompass all AGEs

Down arrow indicates

change in color ratingrelative to previous survey(i.e. Zabul changed fromNeither to AGE MostInfluence)

Between the Anti-Government Elements (AGE)* and the

Government, who has more influence in your area?"

Up arrow indicates

change in color ratingrelative to last survey

Public Perception: INS v. GIRoA Influence

Taliban/AGE

Neither/Don't Know

GIRoA


77%

56% 68% 62% 63%

14%

27%

17%19% 19%

10%17% 15% 19% 18%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Apr 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09

GIRoA Most Influence

GIRoA Most Influence,

but


23/26

23

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Public Perception of the Government


Do you believe the Government is going in the rightdirection or wrong direction?

43%

19%

30%

8%

50%

19%

25%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Right Direction Same Place Wrong Direction Refused / Don't Know

Dec 08 Mar 09


24/26

24

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Do you agree/disagree that the ProvincialCouncil makes a difference for the province?

Participation & Representation

.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

RC-Capital RC-North RC-West RC-South RC-East

Agree, Dec 08 Agree, Mar 09


NATO


25/26

25

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec

08

Mar

09

Dec

08

Mar

09

Dec

08

Mar

09

Dec

08

Mar

09

Dec

08

Mar

09

Dec

08

Mar

09Nationwide RC-Capital RC-North RC-West RC-South RC-East

Refused / Dont Know

No one

Taliban

Foreign Forces

Other Govt Agencies (not ANSF)

Local Commanders

Own Security

ANA

Shuras / Elders

ANP

The Afghan National Police leads as the local provider of security for Afghans.

Who most bringssecurity to your

area?

Public Perception: Who Provides Security


NATO

P bli P i f ISAF


26/26

26

NATO

OTAN

UNCLASSIFIED

Public Perception of ISAF

Overall, nearly one third of the population hold a positive opinion of ISAF, one third hold a fairopinion, and nearly one third hold a negative opinion.

What is your opinion of ISAF?

> 50%

25% 50%

< 25%

8%

21%

33%

18%

12%

8%9%

22%

32%

16%

13%

8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Very Good Good Fair Bad Very Bad Don't Know

Dec 08 Mar 09


Percent within ProvinceResponding Very Good or

Good

Date post:	07-Apr-2018
Category:	Documents
Upload:	gary-owen
View:	225 times
Download:	0 times

11may2009 Isaf Eia Stats

Documents