18th AFA Int’l Annual Fertilizer Forum & Exhibition Feb., 7-9-2012,

Sharm El-Sheikh , Egypt Maritim Jolie Ville Hotel

Water Challenges with Special Focus on the Arab Region

Dr. Mahmoud Abu Zeid

Chairman, Arab Water Council

Egypt

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18th AFA Annual Forum & Exhibition(Challenges in Volatile Fertilizer Markets)

Feb. 7-9, 2012Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt

Water Challenges With

Special Focus on the Arab Region

Prof. Dr. Mahmoud Abu-Zeid

President , Arab Water Council

1. World Water Challenges

2. Water , Energy and Food Nexus

3. Climate Change and Impacts on Water

4. Arab Water

5. Demand Water Management in Arab Region

Presentation Outline

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• Water scarcity• Water quality deterioration• Fragmentation of water management• Decline of financial resources• Lack of awareness by decision-makers• Endangering world peace and security• Climate change

1.World Water Challenges1.World Water Challenges

World Water ResourcesWorld Water Resources

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Glaciers,Snow &Perma-Frost

1.725 %Oceans97.5 %

GroundWater

0.075 %

Lakes,Swamps& Rivers0.25 %

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Freshwater Availableper capita

1950 - 2050

1950 2000 2025 205012,050 m3 7, 310 m3 5,120 m3 4,580 m3

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Decline in per capita water share worldwide and in some regions

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1960 1990 2025

Africa

Asia

Middle East & North Africa

WORLD

5001000

4

4

1950

2025 2050

2000

Countries suffering from water poverty 5

Water ScarcityGlobal Water Status in 100 years

Water ScarcityGlobal Water Status in 100 years

Total Water for Human UsesTotal Water for Human Uses

1961 1975 1994 2000 2025 20500

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Cu

bic

km

Municipal

Industrial

Irrigation

53004800

40003800

29002000

6

5

High variant

tMedium varian

tLow varian

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502

4

6

8

10

12

14billions

Worldwide population increase and its relation to water

7.6 billions

2025

It is expected that population becomes tripled andwater demand becomes 6-fold by year 2050

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Water Quality DeteriorationMarginal-quality Water and Soil Resources

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• Marginal-quality water and soil resources are already used, but productivity in most cases is low

• Recent research and practices have demonstrated that effective utilization of marginal-quality soil and water resources in dry areas can improve the agricultural productivity per unit area and livelihood resilience of the farming communities.

Irrigation water use in fourMENA countries

Irri

gat

ion

wat

er u

se

Freshwater Marginal water

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The Arab region imports 50% of its water through food imports.

Agriculture sector accounts for an average of 85% of water use.

Water for energy currently amounts to about 8% of global water withdrawals (up to 45% in industrialized countries).

2. Water , Energy and Food Nexus

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Renewable energies are expected to expand as a key component of the green economy.

The EU Renewable Energy Directive foresees 20% more renewable energies by 2020.

In the US in 2010 already 35% of corn crop were used for ethanol.

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The water consequences of a replacement scenario of transportation fuel by biodiesel suggests that about 30 million barrels of ethanol and 23 million barrels of biodiesel would be required per day.

The feedback for a 10% biofuel target only for the ethanol in this scenario would already require an additional 600 billion cubic meters of water per year.

Electricity production is the fastest growing form of energy use, estimated to increase by 87% by 2035, with almost one third of that coming from China alone.

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Hydropower production - while already providing 15% of global electricity generation- is still far below its economically and technically feasible potential in many regions.

About 50% more primary energy has to be made available by 2035.

Groundwater is generally more energy intensive than surface water – up to 40% of total energy use in some countries for pumping groundwater.

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Pumping from greater depth increases energy demand exponentially – by a factor of 80 when going from 35 to 120 m depth.

Desalination capacity currently stands at 45 MCM per day, more than half of which is installed in the MENA region.

Water can currently be desalinated at about 0.25 m³ per KWH.

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Production is the largest use of water, responsible for 80-90% of consumptive blue water use, plus a large fraction of green water use by terrestrial ecosystem.

A rule of thumb suggests that it takes about one liter of water to produce one calorie of food energy.

Meat-eaters consume the equivalent of about 5000 liters of water a day compared to the 1000 – 2000 liters used by people on vegetation diets.

Food supply is responsible for around 30% of total global energy demand.

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3. Climate Change and Impacts on Water

3. Climate Change and Impacts on Water

• The recent observations of IPCC reveal that many dry areas are expected to become drier

• Higher water temperatures and changes in floods and droughts are projected to affect water quality and exacerbate many forms of water pollution

• Rising seawater levels and seawater intrusion are expected to affect water quality negatively in coastal areas.

IPCC Technical Paper VI

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Drivers of Global Change

Increasing population

Land cover/use change

Increasing greenhouse gases

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Consequences of Global Climate Change

• Greater and more intense rainfall

• Higher temperatures

• Greater droughts

• River bank erosion

• Rising sea levels

• More intense cyclones

• Salt water intrusions

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11

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This figure relates temperature changes and sea level rise for 6 different global models

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Climate Change in Mediterranean , North Africa and the Middle East countries

• By the 2050s North Africa and some parts of Egypt,Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria, Jordan and Palestine areexpected to have 20 to 25% less rainfall than thepresent mean values.

• This decrease in rainfall is accompanied by atemperature rise in those areas between 2°C and2.75°C . For the same period, the temperature in thecoastal areas will rise by about 1.5°C.

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Delta Region of Egypt

Risks through sea level rise on the costal zone, which is already subsiding at approximately 3-5mm/year around the Nile delta.

Low lying Nile delta region, which constitutes the main agricultural land of Egypt and hosts most of the population, industrial activities and commercial centers, is highly vulnerable to various impacts of climate change

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Delta Region (Cont.)

Rising sea level would destroy weak parts of the sand belt, which is essential for the protection of lagoons and the low-lying reclaimed lands in the Nile delta of Egypt (Mediterranean Sea).

One third of Egypt's fish catches are made in the lagoons. Sea level rise would change the water quality and affect most fresh water fish. Valuable agricultural land would be inundated.

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Sea level rise and Land Subsidence Rates in the Nile Delta for the past 3 decades

Port Said (East Delta)

Al-Burullus

(Middle Delta)

Alexandria

(West Delta)

Region

5.32.31.6SLR (mm/yr)

3.351.10.4Subsidence (mm/yr)

Assumption: Same increase rate of air temperature from IPCC 2007 of 0.6 degrees C/yr.

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(Cont.)

Nile Delta - Current Situation

Climate Change & Sea Water Rise

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(Cont.)

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Nile Delta – 1 Metre Sea Level Rise

Climate Change & Sea Water Rise

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(Cont.)

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Adaptations options for coping with climate variability

Evidence of increased climate variability is incontestable and the severity of that variability demands urgent response from water managers.

Adaptation options to climate variability include:

– technological elements of water infrastructures (storage reservoirs, boreholes, recharge wells and sand wells);

– boosting the yield of available resources (rain water harvesting, water recycling/reuse, desalination);

– adaptation benefits enormously from improved forecasting and climate modelling;

– modification of land use patterns, crop selection and tillage practices.

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The Arab region is one of driest regions in the world.

The region contains 5% of the world population with 1% of its water resources.

18 out of 22 countries suffer from scarcity.

8 have less than an average of 200 m³ per capita, and this average could drop to less than 100 m³ in the next decade.

The Arab region is one of driest regions in the world.

The region contains 5% of the world population with 1% of its water resources.

18 out of 22 countries suffer from scarcity.

8 have less than an average of 200 m³ per capita, and this average could drop to less than 100 m³ in the next decade.

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4. Arab Water

“The least per capita share in the World”Global Shares of Renewable Water Resources (2000)

35808

21622

16368

10867

4980 42701909 1060 177

3681 3518

7243

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Souther

n Am

erica

Eastern

Eur

ope

North

ern Am

erica

C. Am

erica

& C

aribb

ean

Wor

ld

Africa

W.&

Cen

tral E

urop

e

Centra

l Asia

S.& E

aste

rn A

sia

Near E

ast

Arab

Region

GCC

Per

Cap

ita

Sh

are

(cu

m/y

r)

GCC = Gulf Cooperation Council

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Water Scarcityand Population Pressure

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Features of Water ScarcityWith population expected to grow from around 300 million

today to around 500 million in 2050, per capita availability is expected to halve by 2050

Arab Region Population & Per Capita Water Shares

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70019

40

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

Pop

ula

tion

(M

illio

n)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Wat

er S

har

e (c

u.m

/cap

/yr)

Population Share from IRWR Share from ARWR

Rapidly growing population and diminishing per capita share

IRWR= Internal Renewable Water Resources ARWR= Actual (total) Renewable Water Resources 29

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Irrigation Water Savings • Land leveling• Modern farm irrigation systems• Canal lining• Proper irrigation scheduling• Low water consumption crops• Improved drainage

5. Demand Water Management in Arab Region

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Domestic Water Savings

• 20% - 50% losses in the water distribution systems in major Mediterranean cities

• Household water-saving devices (15% of domestic use)-- low flow showerheads (less than 2.5 gallons per minute)-- toilet displacement devices (4.2 gallons per day/device

savings)-- faucet aerators (1.5 gallons per day/device water savings)

• Metering (15% - 40%)• High efficiency washing machines (37% savings)• Landscape water conservation programs (20% savings)

-- moisture sensors-- rain shut-off switches

Ragab and Hamdy, 2008

Balancing the water demand with water supply: virtual water concept

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Ragab and Hamdy, 2008

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Actions forWater Demand Management

Recycle and reuse of water and wastewater for irrigation without endangering soil and water quality, human health or habitat biodiversity.

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We all pay for every thing .. There is No free lunch

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Valuation of water

What is WATER ???• An economic good• A social service• A cultural heritage• An environmental asset

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THANK YOU