Market Weekly Analysis

Chumporn Palm Oil Public Company Limited (CPI) 1 | P a g e

Mar 05, 2011 (Week 11) 1) Market Last week – the market moves in points range.

2) Short-term forecast (this week) Technical Analysis:

Commodities Open High Low Close

KPOc3 (RM) 3271 3368 3222 3352

CLc1 (USD) 53.77 54.07 52.52 53.95

BOc1 (USD) 106.75 108.2 104.35 107.4

(a) Palm oil - Oscillators:

Stochastic

RSI

MACD

(b) Bollinger –

(c) Candlestick

(d) Pattern Ascending Triangle possible to go

upwards (rather than downwards)

(e) Open interest Break downtrend Open

interests increase while price increase Long

overcomes Short Confirm Bullish

(f) Volume Neutral

Short-Term (this week) –

<Sideway up to psychological resistance

3300 then be wary of Slight Correction>

(+) Risk of confrontation between Iran and the

western countries as UN

(+) USD slips to support crude oil.

(+) Upcoming - US Export of soybean (Thu)

(0) Upcoming – US unemployment claim (Thu) (+) Upcoming – Palm Export (Wed) (?) Upcoming – China PMI (Thu) (?) Upcoming – EU leader (17 countries) meeting on ESFS and ESM

Last week – Sideway up

Market Weekly Analysis

Chumporn Palm Oil Public Company Limited (CPI) 2 | P a g e

Fundamental Factors:

Date Effect Factors

Feb 6 (Mon) (+) Rains have been forecast this week in key growing regions of Argentina but dry weather over the past month was likely to reduce yields in the No. 3 world soy exporter.

Feb 14 (Tue) (+) Soybeans were little changed, hovering near a four-month top on concerns of dryness in Brazil, which could further damage the crop following a drought in January that curbed South American crop yields.

Feb 15 (Wed) (-) Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Feb. 1-15 fell 14 percent to 509,107 tonnes from 591,995 tonnes shipped during Jan. 1-15, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Wednesday

Feb 16 (Thu) (+) In the week ending February 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 348,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 361,000. The 4-week moving average was 365,250, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average of 367,000

Feb 17 (Fri) (+) The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment.

(+) Argentina's Agriculture Ministry on Thursday estimated the country's 2011/12 soybean harvest at 43.5 million to 45 million tonnes, well below USDA's current forecast of 48 million.

Feb 19 (Sun) (+) China is seen making more cuts to banks’ reserve requirements to fuel lending and sustain economic growth as the housing market cools (50 bp).

Feb 20 (Mon) (-) Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Feb. 1-20 fell 2 percent to 783,112 tonnes from 799,210 tonnes shipped during Jan. 1-20, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Monday

Feb 21 (Tue) (+) Greece wins the second bailout fund. Feb 22 (Wed) (-) The euro zone's service sector has been shrinking unexpectedly this month,

reviving fears that the region's economy could go into recession, the Markit Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers' Index showed. [nL9E7GA00C]

(-) China's manufacturing sector contracted in February for a fourth straight month as new export orders dropped sharply due to the euro zone debt crisis, dampening the economic growth outlook in the world's second-largest oil user. [nB9E7NB02D]

Feb 23 (Thu) (+) U.N. inspectors sent to visit the country's nuclear installations declared their mission a failure, a setback likely to increase the risk of confrontation with the West.

(+) Japan could cut Iranian imports by as much as 20 percent or more this year, a local newspaper reported, following reductions planned by other buyers in Asia and Europe as Western sanctions made trade difficult. [nL4E8DM9HO]

(-) Three Democratic lawmakers on Wednesday urged the White House to signal it is ready to tap the nation's oil stockpiles to combat surging fuel prices, arguing an "aggressive" strategy could tamp down speculation

Feb 24 (Fri) (+) The Sentiment Index rose to 75.3 in the February survey, just ahead of the 75.0 in January, but slightly below last February’s 77.5 - Consumers have shrugged off con-cerns about rising gas prices, the European crisis, and election year politics, preferring to focus on the favorable im-pact of job growth. (Reuters + U of Michigan)

(-) U.S. crude stocks rose 1.63 million barrels to 340.71 million barrels in the week to Feb. 17, the data showed, compared with a 500,000-barrel build forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll. Weekly crude inventories were the highest since September of 2011. (EIA / US)

(+) Soybean futures rose to a five-month high, helped by a weaker dollar, good export demand and concerns about crop production in Argentina and Brazil.

Feb 27 (Mon) (+) Malaysian palm oil product exports during Feb. 1-25 gained 1.1 percent to 992,362 tonnes from 981,275 tonnes shipped from Jan. 1-25, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Monday. (ITS)

(+) The Ifo Business Climate for trade and industry in Germany improved in February. More companies reported a favourable business situation than in January. They expressed greater optimism about their business expectations for the fourth time in succession. The German economy is currently supported by domestic demand. (Ifo/ Germany)

(-) The Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers said on Sunday they were "alert to the risks of higher oil prices" and discussed at length the impact that sanctions on Iran will have on crude supplies and global growth. [nL2E8DQ1OA]

Market Weekly Analysis

Chumporn Palm Oil Public Company Limited (CPI) 3 | P a g e

3) Medium-term forecast (one month ahead) Technical Analysis: Medium & Long-Term Fundamental:

Effect Time Factor

(+) Long-term Malaysia's oil palm industry will spend RM4.4 billion to replant some 365,000 hectares from 2011 to 2013 (or ~13% out of all plantation area)

(+) Long-term Possible of QE3 to spur economy in Q2, Q3 (Long-term) (+) Long-term M2 increases in the world economy as most central banks use monetary expansion

presently. (+) Long-term Biodiesel Mandate Latin America will spur consumption of soy oil (+) Long-term China cut legal reserve to 21%.(and cut further lately on Feb 17

th 50BP)

(+) Long-term ECB cut the monetary interest to 1% and likely to cut to 0.75% soon (+) Long-term Major central banks (US, Japan, Swill, Canada etc) have cut interest swap line by 0.5%

to support world economy. (+) Long-term The possibility of Fiscal Union and ESM measure in EU in 1Q2012 + Leaders completed

the fiscal-discipline treaty, which speeds sanctions on high-deficit states and requires euro countries to anchor balanced-budget rules in national law

(+) Long-term The tension in Persian Gulf as long as Iran still resumes its nuclear programme (-) Long-term The Euro-Zone debt crisis (+) Long-term Expectation of money supply increase in US benefit commodities after Fed promised to

keep interest at 0% further 2 years. (+) Long-term US defence secretary Leon Panetta believed Israel was likely to bomb Iran within months

to stop it building a nuclear bomb. (April, May or June) (Washington Post columnist.) (-) Long-term The U.S. CIA director told a Senate committee on Tuesday that OPEC member Saudi

Arabia's oil production appears to be ramping up and can fill some of the shortfall caused by sanctions on Iranian exports. Also, current sanctions appear to be biting much more in recent weeks. [nL2E8CVCW1]

(-) Long-term Malaysia's 2012 palm oil production is expected to rise 2.3 percent to 19.3 million tonnes as more estates come into maturity, an official from the country's industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Thursday Jan 19, 12.

(o) Long-term EIA forecast the oil demand will increase in slower pace – 1.27 mbpd in 2012 and 1.47

Mar 9 (Fri) Mar 10 (Sat) (+) Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for March 1-10 rose 29.5 percent to

444,259 tonnes from 342,982 tonnes shipped during March 1-10, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Saturday.

Medium-Term

1Q2012 (Mar 12)

Assumption

Expected average crude oil = 103

Target price of palm oil likely to = 3400

Market Weekly Analysis

Chumporn Palm Oil Public Company Limited (CPI) 4 | P a g e

Figure1 – Malaysian Palm Oil Export for 5 Years – The

export quantity has been rising in upward trend and has a

cycle in its aspect.

Figure2 – Palm Oil Export by Country – 4 countries

accounted for 60% of overall export have slow their

purchasing.

331,903

460,990

315,700

217,206

87,621

236,102

224,278

435,664

662,461

700,047

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2010 2011 2012

(T)

Export by Destination

China India US EU Pakistan Others

948,012

1,614,720

1,114,593

1,843,602

1,381,315

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Jan

Mar

May

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(T)

Export Trend

Overall Export

mbpd in 2013. (+) Long-term Malaysia has issued this year's tax-free crude palm oil export quotas of 3 million tonnes (+) Medium-term China will expand loan in 1Q2012. (+) Medium-term La Nina to cause drought in Latin America in soybean crop belt + expected drop in

output. (+) Medium-term Winter season in northern hemisphere to spur demand for oil. (+) Medium-term Recover signs in US economy (-) Medium-term S&P cut credit rating 9 country in EU including France (-) Medium-term The possibility of Fiscal Union and ESM measure in EU in 1Q2012 is in doubt with its real practice.

4) Indicative Statistics Palm oil

Soybean

Market Weekly Analysis

Chumporn Palm Oil Public Company Limited (CPI) 5 | P a g e

Figure3 + Table1 – Soybean Production – Due to La Nina

that cause dry spell in America continent, soybean production

slightly drops from last year by 2.7%. While US has a biggest

drop at 8.2%, Brazil edges lower by 2%.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Dec) 2012 (Feb)

Ton

ne

s

Ton

ne

s

Production Major Grower

World US Brazil Argentina Others

Unit: M Tonnes

Dec Jan Feb

World 220.47 211.96 260.85 264.18 259.22 257.00 257.00

US 72.86 80.75 91.42 90.61 82.89 83.17 83.17

Brazil 61.00 57.80 69.00 75.50 75.00 74.00 74.00

Argentina 46.20 32.00 54.50 49.00 52.00 50.50 50.50

Others 40.41 41.41 45.93 49.07 49.33 49.33 49.33

2012

2011201020092008

Figure4 + Table2 – Soybean Consumption – The demand is

growing in slower pace. Supply has a shortfall.

Unit: M Tonnes

Jan Feb

World 231.09 221.40 238.25 251.74 259.62 252.58

US 51.36 47.75 50.27 48.00 46.83 48.47

China 51.16 51.84 59.61 66.14 71.30 69.50

Others 128.57 121.81 128.36 137.59 141.49 134.61

2011

2012

2008 2009 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (Jan) 2012 (Feb)

Ton

ne

s

Ton

ne

s

Consumption Major Countries

World US China Others

Figure5 + Table3 – Soybean D/S Ratio – Supply slips while

demand steadily grow, the Demand / Supply thus gets climbing

fortifying bullish possibility for soybean for 2012.

Unit: X Times

Jan Feb

Demand 231.09 221.40 238.25 251.74 259.62 252.58

Supply 220.47 211.96 260.85 264.18 257.00 257.00

D/S ratio 1.05 1.04 0.91 0.95 1.01 0.98

2008 2009 2010 2011

2012

Market Weekly Analysis

Chumporn Palm Oil Public Company Limited (CPI) 6 | P a g e

5) Palm Oil Stock Situation

Malaysian Palm oil Stock: Forecast as of Feb 27, 2012:

Forecast as of Feb 20, 2012:

The Assumption:

-Production forecast by MPOB is19.36 MT for

2012, increase from last year (18.9 MT) by

2.43%

- Import and Local disappear is estimated by

basing on exponential average of past 2-year

export.

-Export figure is based on exponential average

of past 5-year export.

< Updated on Mar 12, 2012>

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Total

MPOB 1,080,050 1,056,990 1,200,000 1,406,700 1,585,310 1,650,000 1,827,000 1,899,500 1,962,809 1,997,220 1,932,100 1,759,803 19,357,482

Production CPO 1,287,194 1,158,475 1,250,000 1,406,700 1,585,310 1,650,000 1,827,000 1,899,500 1,962,809 1,997,220 1,932,100 1,759,803 19,716,111

Import 209,408 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 1,419,408

Export CPO 1,381,315 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 1,500,000 17,881,315

Local Disaapear 146,544 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 1,796,544

Ending Stock 2,007,967 1,626,442 1,336,442 1,203,142 1,248,452 1,358,452 1,645,452 2,004,952 2,427,761 2,884,981 3,277,081 3,496,884

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Total

MPOB 1,080,050 1,056,990 1,200,000 1,406,700 1,585,310 1,650,000 1,827,000 1,899,500 1,962,809 1,997,220 1,932,100 1,759,803 19,357,482

Production CPO 1,287,194 1,158,475 1,250,000 1,406,700 1,585,310 1,650,000 1,827,000 1,899,500 1,962,809 1,997,220 1,932,100 1,759,803 19,716,111

Import 209,408 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 110,000 1,419,408

Export CPO 1,381,315 1,208,697 1,393,274 1,400,694 1,445,343 1,517,897 1,674,591 1,577,043 1,572,722 1,721,503 1,669,820 1,569,817 18,132,715

Local Disaapear 146,544 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 150,000 1,796,544

Ending Stock 2,007,967 1,917,745 1,734,470 1,700,477 1,800,444 1,892,546 2,004,956 2,287,413 2,637,500 2,873,217 3,095,497 3,245,483

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Total

MPOB Forecast 1,080,050 1,056,990 1,200,000 1,406,700 1,585,310 1,650,000 1,827,000 1,899,500 1,962,809 1,997,220 1,932,100 1,759,803 19,357,482

Production CPO 1,287,194 1,141,549 1,260,000 1,406,700 1,585,310 1,650,000 1,827,000 1,899,500 1,962,809 1,997,220 1,932,100 1,759,803 19,709,185

Import 209,408 110,560 81,232 96,253 114,141 79,901 106,331 79,567 83,727 63,097 92,479 133,305 1,250,000

Export CPO 1,381,315 1,177,262 1,377,203 1,400,694 1,445,343 1,517,897 1,674,591 1,577,043 1,572,722 1,721,503 1,669,820 1,569,817 18,085,209

Local Disaapear 146,544 129,682 193,806 206,970 213,343 159,126 206,096 169,584 190,305 154,796 138,625 91,123 2,000,000

Ending Stock 2,007,967 1,953,132 1,723,355 1,618,644 1,659,408 1,712,286 1,764,929 1,997,370 2,280,879 2,464,897 2,681,032 2,913,200

1,8

32

,84

7

1,5

65

,53

2 1

,36

3,6

57

1

,29

2,3

03

1,3

66

,57

6

1,4

05

,50

0 1

,32

8,4

40

1,4

15

,10

9

1,5

56

,86

6 1

,98

5,0

55

1,9

34

,61

3 2

,23

8,7

17

2,0

00

,65

6 1

,78

5,2

33

1,6

54

,96

7 1

,62

2,5

80

1,5

62

,32

3 1

,45

1,1

53

1,4

05

,74

0 1

,72

3,2

62

1,7

08

,10

1 1

,79

2,8

40

1,6

36

,67

0 1

,61

4,6

71

1,4

18

,98

0 1

,48

1,4

10

1,6

14

,06

6 1

,67

0,7

62

1,9

18

,02

3 2

,05

2,8

70

1,9

96

,31

7 1

,88

4,5

60

2,1

19

,98

5

2,1

00

,41

5 2

,06

8,7

54

2,0

39

,22

4

2,0

07

,96

7 1

,85

0,4

60

1,8

51

,76

3 1

,81

7,7

69

1,9

17

,73

6 2

,00

9,8

39

2,1

22

,24

8 2

,40

4,7

05

24

26

22

24

2826

23

25 23

21

24

27 26 2626

25 26 26 25

27 28

31

39

44

52

57

36 36 3634

3031

3028

31 3032

33

1920

25

27

24

2022 21

2224 24

26 25 25

27 27 28

31

35

37 38

3534 34

3331 31

3028

30 3032 32

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

2009 2010 2011 2012

Stock CPO Malaysia CPO Production Malaysia (MPOB) EXPORT Malaysia (convert to CPO) Price CPO Thailand (Ex-Vat) Price CPO Malaysia

Unit : Baht/Kg Unit : TonMalaysia Production, Export and Stock

Forecast

Market Weekly Analysis

Chumporn Palm Oil Public Company Limited (CPI) 7 | P a g e

Thai Palm oil Stock: 1) FFB of 5 provinces

2) Stock Scenario (Most likely)

Forecast as of Feb 27, 2012: Forecast as of Feb 6, 2012:

The Assumption:

- B5 has taken effect since Jan01st onwards.

- Total FFB of 2011 is estimated at 10.56 M tonnes.

- Total FFB of 2012 is estimated at 10.58 M tonnes.

- Oil extraction rate 17.5% (2012)

- Export 2012 is 22,000 each month

<Updated on Mar 12, 2012>

< Stock would decline through Jan and Feb 2012 as

export surge>

Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Total Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

FFB 1,128,501 1,054,518 882,618 10,562,923 750,000 700,000 900,000 1,037,400 1,053,150 905,100 903,000 934,500 958,650 925,050 744,450 643,650

Production CPO 199,982 186,876 157,292 1,821,212 131,250 122,500 157,500 181,545 184,301 158,392 158,025 163,537 167,764 161,884 130,279 112,639

Import - - - 60,271 - - - - - - - - - - - -

Export CPO 69,480 37,986 25,149 306,845 37,500 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000

Export border 4,416 4,346 12,717 78,585 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000

Cons Food 52,180 54,361 89,426 798,173 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000

Cons Biodiesel 75,830 56,505 39,795 473,784 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000

Ending Stock 273,700 307,378 297,584 256,334 221,834 222,334 246,879 274,180 275,572 276,597 283,135 293,899 298,782 272,061 227,700

(Unit: 1,000 T)

FFB Usage Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12

Surat 170.3 119.3 149.5 112.1 141.8 241.8 333.6 387.1 397.8 407.5 380.8 378.8 473.3 425.2 329.8 265.2

Krabi 126.5 91.1 76.2 85.8 161.5 259.8 264.4 290.8 274.5 274.9 230.2 250.8 311.1 308.5 248.4 241.7

Chumporn 123.1 111.3 72.9 72.0 95.0 132.9 149.6 182.2 204.4 200.4 188.1 190.9 213.4 200.9 181.9 157.4

Prajuab 18.1 14.2 11.0 11.0 11.0 27.1 14.8 21.6 19.2 27.2 32.4 27.4 22.0 15.7 19.8 23.1

Trang 20.9 14.2 53.6 12.8 33.5 64.5 53.6 39.6 54.3 57.0 55.6 55.2 59.5 46.8 48.3 51.3

Total 458.9 350.1 363.3 293.6 442.8 726.2 816.1 921.3 950.1 967.2 887.0 903.1 1,079.2 1,001.3 828.2 738.7

Remark:

Nov-11 Dec-11 Total Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Total

OAE 678,768 838,888 1,128,959 1,146,364 1,163,768 1,000,167 997,847 1,032,655 1,059,342 1,022,213 822,643 711,256 11,602,870

FFB 1,054,518 882,618 10,562,923 788,183 790,000 900,000 1,037,400 1,053,150 905,100 903,000 934,500 958,650 925,050 744,450 643,650 10,583,133

Production CPO 186,876 157,292 1,821,212 137,699 138,250 157,500 181,545 184,301 158,392 158,025 163,537 167,764 161,884 130,279 112,639 1,851,815

Import - - 60,271 - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Export CPO 37,986 25,149 306,845 37,284 50,000 40,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 22,000 325,284

Export border 4,346 12,717 78,585 9,752 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 86,752

Cons Food 54,361 89,426 798,173 77,161 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 60,000 737,161

Cons Biodiesel 56,505 39,795 473,784 47,387 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 68,000 795,387

Ending Stock 307,378 297,584 263,699 216,949 199,449 223,994 251,295 252,687 253,712 260,250 271,014 275,897 249,176 204,815

Market Weekly Analysis

Chumporn Palm Oil Public Company Limited (CPI) 8 | P a g e

6) Palm Oil Forecast for 2012

Limitation:

The model has tied up the palm oil price with the crude oil price, so if the crude price is not accurate, the palm

oil price predicted hereby will not accurate as well.

About the model:

The sample used to construct the model comes from time series data of palm oil (FCPOc3) and crude oil

price (CLc1) since Jan 2007 to Nov 2011.

The forecasted figures is derived by econometric method under the mathematical model below:

Palmt = β0 + β1 Time + β2 (Crude)t+1

e

The model can describe the price of palm oil about 80%. The rest 20% is unexplained and may be affected

by other factors such as stock, production, soybean etc.

The coefficient of Crude price, time and the constant terms is highly statistical significant.

Here are some statistical result from running SPSS;

7) Forecast from keynote speaker in POC 2012 in Malaysia (Mar 5-7)

Thomas Milke

James Fry

Doram Mistry

Median

8) La Nina Situation

To see the accuracy of our forecast, please follow the link below:

Under construction.

Remark:

(1) The Market Weekly Analysis can also be accessed via CPI intranet / Marketing dept.

(2) The main source of information used to prepare this report is from Department of Internal Trade, MPOB, Reuter

Bloomberg and various Thai news agencies.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Prepared by Poonsak Tananat / Market Analysis Officer / Purchasing Raw Material Dept.

Model Summary(b)

Model R R Square

Adjusted R

Square

Std. Error of

the Estimate

Change Statistics

R Square

Change F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change

1 .902(a) .814 .807 258.20845 .814 120.483 2 55 .000

a Predictors: (Constant), CRUDE1, TIME b Dependent Variable: PALM

Coefficients(a)

Model

Unstandardized Coefficients

Standardized Coefficients

t Sig.

95% Confidence Interval for B Correlations Collinearity Statistics

B Std. Error Beta Lower Bound Upper Bound Zero-order Partial Part Tolerance VIF

1 (Constant)

496.976 144.839 3.431 .001 206.713 787.240

TIME 7.424 2.045 .213 3.630 .001 3.325 11.523 .331 .440 .211 .981 1.020

CRUDE1 23.858 1.652 .848 14.439 .000 20.547 27.169 .877 .890 .839 .981 1.020

a Dependent Variable: PALM

Average 2012

Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

Crude oil price 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105 105

Palm oil price 3,197 3,462 3,470 3,477 3,485 3,492 3,499 3,507 3,514 3,522 3,529 3,537 3,474

Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012