Market Potential Analysis

Shawna Jones, Mollye Peters, Jessica Otterman, Erica Steele

Company Background

• Started in 1993

• Denver, Colorado

• Found and CEO: Steve

Ells

• “Food With Integrity”

• 837 locations

• 33 states, District of

Columbia, and

Toronto, Canada (Chipotle Mexican Grill, 2009)

• Fastest growing U.S. restaurant

chain (% increase in foodservice

revenue) (Basham, 2009)

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

• Naturally raised chicken

and pork

• Green buildings

• No artificial flavorings or

colors

• Vegetarian and vegan

choices

• Over 300 restaurants

recycle

Weaknesses

• Not fully expanded in the

U.S.

• Only 50% of stores have

natural beef

• Difficulty to fulfill “Food

With Integrity” philosophy

Opportunities

• Eco-friendly trend in design

• Popularity of natural food

products and trend in

healthy choices

Threats

• Attitudes toward American

brands

• Restaurants in foreign

countries mostly run by

natives (“Eating Places”, 2009).

(Chipotle Mexican Grill, 2009)

Macroscreening

• Positive attitude towards dining out

• Eating out as a convenience or social pastime

Four Promising Nations

• Australia

• Ireland

• United Kingdom

• Japan

Criteria and Weights

20%

20%

20%

15%

15%

10% Urban Population

% Import Growth- Food & Beverage Industry

Ease of Doing Business

Population Growth Rate

PPP Per Capita

Likeliness of Dining out

Urban Population

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90% 89%

80%

66%

90%

43%

77% 74%

61%

68%

87%

77%

Perc

ent of

Tota

l Popula

tion

Country

Urban Population (2008)

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2009)

% Growth of Import of

Food and Beverage Industry

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

Australia Canada Japan UK China France Germany Ireland Italy New Zealand

Spain

98.80%

52.72%

38.53%

59.57% 60.77% 63.15%

53.06%

83.39%

72.46% 74.93%

76.87%

Perc

ent G

row

th f

or

5 Y

ears

Country

Growth of Food/Beverage Imports

(CenTradeX, 2007)

Ease of Doing Business

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Australia Canada Japan UK China France Germany Ireland Italy New Zealand

Spain

9 8

12 10

83

31

25

7

65

2

49

Rank

Country

Ease of Doing Business

(CenTradeX, 2009)

Population Growth Rate

-0.200%

0.000%

0.200%

0.400%

0.600%

0.800%

1.000%

1.200% 1.195%

0.817%

-0.191%

0.279%

0.655%

0.549%

-0.053%

1.120%

-0.047%

0.935%

0.072%

Population Growth Rate

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2009)

PPP Per Capita

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

$38,100 $39,100

$34,000

$36,500

$6,000

$33,200

$35,400

$45,300

$31,300

$28,000

$34,700

US D

ollars

Country

PPP per Capita (2008)

(Central Intelligence Agency, 2009)

Likelihood of Dining Out

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Australia Canada Japan UK China France Germany Ireland Italy New Zealand

Spain

7

10

6

8

5

1

4

9

3

7

2

Rankin

g

Country

Likelihood of Dining Out

(Euromonitor International, 2009)

Model Australia Ireland Japan UK

Criteria Weight Rank Weighted Rank Weighted Rank Weighted Rank Weighted

Urban Population 20% 9 1.8 2 0.4 3 0.6 10 2

% Growth (5yr) of Imports for Food & Beverage Industry 20% 10 2 9 1.8 1 0.2 4 0.8 Ease of Doing Business 20% 6 1.2 8 1.6 5 1 9 1.8 Population Growth Rate 15% 10 1.5 9 1.35 1 0.15 5 0.75

PPP Per Capita 15% 8 1.2 10 1.5 5 0.75 7 1.05 Likelihood of Dining Out 10% 7 0.7 9 0.9 5 0.5 8 0.8

8.4 7.55 3.2 7.2

Selection

Australia

• Economy has seen over 17 years of continuous growth

• High affinity towards American products

• Tendency towards healthy and active lifestyle

• Egalitarian and values relationships

• Voted 2nd most ethical nation to conduct business with

• Population is approximately 21,262,641 (July 2009)

Rationale

(Global Road Warrior, 2009)

Sydney • 4,193,500 urban population

• wealthiest city in Australia

• possesses many tourist

attractions

Melbourne • 3,698,200 urban population

• cultural capital of Australia

• center of business

Brisbane • 1,849,500 urban population

• largest city in the world in

terms of land mass

• night life

Prospective Cities

(Global Road Warrior, 2009)

Sales Forecast - Industry

Food Service Industry Sales for 2010 in Australia

• Method 1:

• Approximately $1.24 billion

• U.S. and Australian urban populations

• Projected U.S. Food Service Industry Sales for 2010

• Method 2:

• Approximately $781 million

• Australian Foodservice Market Volume

• Australian Market Segmentation for Fast Food

(Basham, 2009)

(World Fact Book -

Australia & US, 2009)

(Datamonitor Industry Market Research, 2009)

• Method 1:

• Approximately $1.8 million for 3 locations in 2010

($607,343 per store)

• Approximately $2.1 million in 2011

($732,000 per store)

• Chipotle restaurant sales for 2007 and 2008

• Total number of locations for U.S.

• Urban population of U.S. compared to Australia

Sales Forecast - Brand

(Chipotle

Mexican

Grill, April

2009)

(World Fact Book - Australia & US, 2009)

• Method 2:

•Approximately $6.4 million for 3 locations in 2010

($2.1 million per store)

• Approximately $6.6 million in 2011

($2.2 million per store)

• Total sales, number of restaurants, and growth

rate for McDonald’s

Sales Forecast - Brand

(McDonald's Australia - A case study of a multinational operating within the

Australian Economy, 2007)

(Datamonitor Industry Market Research, 2009)

(McDonald's (Australia), 2009)

Basham, M. (2009, September 3). Industry Surveys: Restaurants. Retrieved October 6, 2009,

from Market Insight Database.

CenTradeX. (2009). Country Comparator - Tools & Games - globalEDGE. Retrieved October

6, 2009, from globalEDGE:

http://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/countryrank.asp?Year=2008&Statistic=12465

CenTradeX. (2007, March). Food and Beverage Industry Trade Statistics - globalEDGE.

Retrieved October 6, 2009, from globalEDGE: http://globaledge.msu.edu/industries/Food-

and-Beverage/tradestats/

Central Intelligence Agency. (2009, October). World Fact Book. Retrieved October 4, 2009,

from CIA - The World Fact Book: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/

Chipotle Mexican Grill. (2009, April). 2008 Annual Report and Proxy Statement. Retrieved

October 6, 2009, from Chipotle.com: http://phx.corporate-ir.net

Chipotle Mexican Grill. (2009). Chipotle: Gourmet Burritos and Tacos. Retrieved October 6,

2009, from Chipotle Mexican Grill: http://www.chipotle.com/#/land

Datamonitor Industry Market Research. (2009, August 15). Australia-Foodservice. (Industry

overview). Retrieved October 5, 2009, from Business and Company Resource Center:

http://galenet.galegroup.com

Works Cited

"Eating Places." Encyclopedia of American Industries. Online Edition. Gale, 2009. Reproduced

in Business and Company Resource Center. Farmington Hills, Mich.:Gale Group. 2009.

http://ezproxy.butler.edu:2133/servlet/BCRC

Euromonitor International. (2009). Country Reports: Australia. Retrieved October 7, 2009,

From Global Market Information Database.

Global Road Warrior, The (2008). Australia: Business Culture: Business Ethic and Framework.

Retrieved 10/11/2009, from

www.globalroadwarrior.com/ContentInfo.asp?nid=13.03&cid=7&next_nid=13.04&ctry=Aust

ralia&parent=Business%20Culture

Global Road Warrior, The (2009). Welcome to Australia. Retrieved October 7, 2009, from

Global Road Warrior: http://globalroadwarrior.com/welcome/asp?cid=7

McDonald's (Australia). (2009). Our Story. Retrieved October 8, 2009, from McDonald's

(Australia): www.mcdonalds.com.au/about-us/our-story

McDonald's Australia - A case study of a multinational operating within the Australian Economy.

(2007, February 21). Retrieved October 8, 2009, from Australian Trade Comission:

www.austrade.gov.au/ArticleDocuments/1454/EFF_mcdonaldscasestudy.pdf.aspx

World Fact Book - Australia & US. (2009). Retrieved October 7, 2009, from World Fact

Book.

Works Cited

Questions?