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NOVEMBER 2012 ELECTION RESULTS

Jan. 31, 2013 SHARE THIS INFORMATION WITH EVERYONE Number 13-1

10 Takeaways from the 2012

Election

by Robert Watson, Ph.D.

1. The more the things changeThe 57th quadrennial presidential election isin the bag and, after what was the longest, mostexpensive, and nastiest campaign in history, in away we find ourselves exactly where we were beforethe campaign. Obama is still in the White House,the Republicans have a narrow hold on the House(234 to 200, a change from the last Congress: 241to 191), the Democrats/Independents still havean advantage in the Senate (55 to 45, up from53 to 47)a few seats are still to be decided. Thecongressional leadership in both parties and bothhouses remains essentially unchanged, and thebitter partisan divide will continue to be a keyobstacle to governing. Thus, many of the samechallenges remain, as is evident as the nationstares down the barrel of the looming fiscal cliff.

2. Demographics and mathematicsObama won for several reasons, but one of the

overarching themes of this election was theimpact of demographics and mathematics on theelection. The President carried just about everymajor demographic group except white malesand southern Evangelicals. For instance, Obamawon 93% of the African American vote, 80% ofthe Asian vote, 71% of the Hispanic vote (80% ofthe Puerto Rican vote) and even managed to winnearly half of the staunchly Republican Cuban

American community in Miami. By a comfortablemajority, he took the youth vote, womens vote, gayvote, and so on. Quite simply, there arent enoughconservative white males to get to 270 electoralvotes. The nation is changing demographicallybut the Republicans campaigned like it was 1950in the South.

3. Party realignmentEvery so often in history one of the parties (or a

president) manages to put together a governingcoalition of demographic groups and other targetedpopulations such as labor, gun owners, and so on.If the Democrats do it right, they should be in themidst of stitching together a majority coalitionthat should give them an electoral advantage forseveral years. As was mentioned above, they wonnearly every major demographic and all but one ofthe swing states.

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4. Anti-partyThe old truism is that, to win a campaign, youcant just give voters a reason to vote against youropponent. Rather, voters must also be given areason to vote for you. The Republican Party hasbecome an anti party. Except for tax cuts forthe rich, the glue that holds together their baseis not what they stand for but all of the types of

individuals, policies, and beliefs they dislike. Fear,hate, and paranoia are not the basis for governingand a party that rejects science (the existence ofclimate change, evolution, etc.), family planning,healthcare, gay rights and marriage equality,the existence of legitimate rape, the necessityof infrastructure, and so on is poised to winelections only in the 19th century. Such was thesituation that candidate Jon Huntsman tweetedin desperation: I believe in evolution and trustscientists on global warming. Call me crazy.

5. Republican civil warSo, there is a battle for the heart and soul of theGOP going on. The GOPs positions during the2012 campaign and the ugly rhetoric of so manyof their candidates against immigration, womens

issues, healthcare, and so on, alienated themajority of Americans. The simple, mathematicareality is that they cannot win outside of Dixiewithout changing their positions and dialing backtheir rhetoric. Yet, many Republican leaders haveclaimed Romney wasnt conservative enough andcomments by Romney and other GOP leadersafter the election suggest they are still tone deaf

Stay tuned as moderate elements within the partyduke it out with Tea Party extremists.

6. Romney as a giftDespite the aforementioned points, the Demo-crats were fortunate that Obama faced Rom-ney and not a Rea-gan or Eisenhower.Romneys constantgaffes stayed in theheadlines, kept his

campaign off-mes-sage, and kept mostAmericans (even hissupporters) scratch-ing their heads. There was no shortage of bizarrecomments the infamous dismissal of 47% of thecountry, Im not concerned about the very poor,I like being able to fire people, binders full ofwomen, I bet you $10,000, corporations arepeople too, my friend of course they are, andmany more, along with alarming inaccuracies in

his understanding of international affairs includ-ing his comments during his international tourlate in his campaign and his announcement thaSyria and Iran share a border (they dont) and iis Irans only route to the sea (it isnt).

Moreover, presidential campaigns are, at therisk of sounding flippant, to a degree, popularitycontests. We like to get to know our presidentialcandidates. Yet, Romneys constant flip-flops onthe issues made it difficult for anyone to know ihe stood for anything, much less have a sense o

him. Romney was truly Etch-a-sketch Mitt, aman who was pro-choice and pro-life, opposed tothe kind of healthcare reform he earlier promotedin Massachusetts, and was both for and againstany number of issues including the death penaltyguns, ending the war in Iraq, the economicstimulus, and so on. So extensive were his flipsthat he changed his position within and betweendebates!

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7. Floridas ballotThe leadership in the legislature filled the 2012ballot with 11 amendments that were unnecessary(the measures should have been dealt with inlegislative session and not by constitutionalamendment), convoluted (they were written in away that voters had trouble understanding them),and designed to dupe the voters. Fortunately,most of them failed. The most shameful amongthem, including a symbolic vote against Obamashealthcare reform, an effort to pack the SupremeCourt and shift the balance of powers in Tallahassee,the ban on abortion, and a measure to weaken theseparation of church and state, all failed by widemargins. Score one for the voters!

8. The circusThe Democrats also benefitted from theRepublican primary field. After conservative

darlings Sarah Palin and Donald Trump declinedto run for president, various unusual candidates

took turns at the top of the polls, embarrassing theparty and harming their chances in November.The likes of Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry,Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, and Newt Gingrichconstitute the worst field of candidates in recentmemory.

It is doubtful the GOP will repeat the manymistakes from 2012.

9. Year of the woman?There are now 20 women in the U.S. Senate, whichis a record!

10. Election reformIf one thing is crystal clear from this election itis that we sorely need election reform, not onlynationally but at the state and local levels as wellThis issue resonates loudest here in Florida, whereour system of elections continues to be a punch-line

for late-night comedians. At the same time, votersmust hold the governor and Republican legislatureaccountable for a series of alarming actions, fromfailing to invest in elections, to refusing to extendvoting hours, to limiting early voting, all under theguise of a campaign to stamp out an alleged crisisof voter fraud (which is actually virtually non-existent). The real voting fraud in this electioncycle was the efforts to disenfranchise voters bythe governor and leadership in Tallahassee. ##

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2012 Election ResultsPages 4-6 show the outstanding resultsproduced by the Democrats of Palm BeachCounty. Note how many blue backgroundsthere are vs. the number of reds! (Graybackgrounds = non-partisan winners,most of whom also were supported byDemocrats.)

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2012 PBC Election Results

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