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chapter 8 Economic analysis of the specific proposal 8.1 Purpose At this stage, the only purpose of this preliminary economic analysis of the proposal is to supply information on the profit potential of the final plant, which is needed to justify the continued expense for its development. This is definitely not the kind of economic analysis that will be needed later to approve the investment of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in an industrial plant (see Chapter 10). The preliminary analysis can be done within the project team, if an experienced “cost engineer” is available, or by a specialized consultant, or it may be subcontracted to an engineering company. It is based on: The process data contained in the preliminary design package, which was described in the previous chapter The cost data available in the files from previous projects The input from the marketing experts The non-committing, up-to-date quotations for the major equipment, ob- tained by direct contact with potential suppliers (not as formal tenders) To save time, this economic analysis could be started on partial drafts of the preliminary design package, which could be supplied informally, but of course, the “bottom line” recommendation can only be completed after the preliminary design package is completed and ready to be formally presented. 8.2 Preliminary estimate of the Fixed Capital Investment (revision 0) The working methodology for the preparation of fixed capital investment (FCI) estimates is well known from textbooks. 1,2 It is also practiced in Copyright © 2002 by CRC Press LLC
Transcript
  • chapter 8

    Economic analysis of the specific proposal

    8.1 Purpose

    At this stage, the only purpose of this preliminary economic analysis of theproposal is to supply information on the

    profit potential

    of the final plant,which is needed to justify the continued expense for its development. Thisis definitely not the kind of economic analysis that will be needed later toapprove the investment of tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in anindustrial plant (see Chapter 10).

    The preliminary analysis can be done within the project team, if anexperienced cost engineer is available, or by a specialized consultant, orit may be subcontracted to an engineering company. It is based on:

    The process data

    contained in the preliminary design package, whichwas described in the previous chapter

    The cost data

    available in the files from previous projects

    The input from the marketing

    experts

    The non-committing, up-to-date quotations

    for the major equipment, ob-tained by direct contact with potential suppliers (not as formal tenders)

    To save time, this economic analysis could be started on partial drafts ofthe preliminary design package, which could be supplied informally, butof course, the bottom line recommendation can only be completed afterthe preliminary design package is completed and ready to be formallypresented.

    8.2 Preliminary estimate of the Fixed Capital Investment (revision 0)

    The working methodology for the preparation of fixed capital investment(FCI) estimates is well known from textbooks.

    1,2

    It is also practiced in

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  • most engineering groups with good results and need not be discussedhere in detail.

    Just to recall some fact-of-life: For a

    preliminary estimate

    , the purchase,delivery, and installation costs of the

    major

    pieces of equipment are estimated

    separately

    , from the companys own records, or from published cost correla-tions, but mostly from up-to-date quotations obtained on-the-wire fromsuppliers. Note that such preliminary quotations can be obtained at this stagefrom only three or four suppliers, as it is not intended to make a bid com-parison, but only to select a reasonable average cost for this task. But if oneof the quotations received from the suppliers is way out from the average,this could indicate a problem in the concept or the wording of the requestspecification, which should be clarified.

    Table 8.1 illustrates a typical example for a preliminary small project forthe production of 5,000 tons per year (tpy) of zirconium oxide according toa novel process (Gorin-Mizrahi, described in Chapter 5, Figure 5.2). The listof equipment is taken from the preliminary process flow-sheets and theestimated installed costs for each are based from recorded data from otherprojects, with the necessary conservative adaptation and updating. Oneshould note that 90% of the installed equipment cost can be attributed toeight complete packages from specialized suppliers (kilns, dryer, ball-mill,agglomerator, etc.), including their design and operating know-how.

    The sum of the installed costs of all the major pieces of equipment isthen multiplied by different

    relative statistical factors

    , representing the costcontributions of minor standard equipment, buildings, piping, electrical,instrumentation and control, services connections and infrastructure, engi-neering and management, start-up, and miscellaneous. These different sta-tistical factors are

    individually chosen

    by an experienced cost engineer on thebasis of the recorded analysis of previous projects, and are adapted to thespecific characteristics of the present case (such as its location, request forexplosion-proof conditions, large flows of gases, etc.). For the case describedin Table 8.1, it was estimated that a factor of 3.0 would be sufficient, consid-ering a lower need for detailed engineering and electrical hardware.

    Separate

    safety margins

    (reserves) are then chosen to fit the uncertaintybuilt into the present state of project definition. These safety margins areadded to the total sum obtained above, but they will have to be reconsideredin each of the future revisions of this FCI estimate, as the process andimplementation conditions will be more focused and their uncertainty rangewill be decreased. For the case under discussion, a safety margin of 30% wasadded to reflect the early status of the estimate, bringing the total FCIpreliminary estimate to $16,510,000. This does not include the promotersown expenses, or the cost of additional testing.

    This is the usual methodology for a preliminary FCI estimate. The formatused is not critical, as a completely new format will be used later for thereal investment budget, when it will be prepared for approval of the plant(see Chapter 10).

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  • Table 8.1

    Typical Preliminary Fixed Capital Investment Estimate

    Tag Name Number Size MOC

    **

    Installed Cost

    T-01 HCl solution tank 1 50 m

    3

    FRP 20,000 T-02 Fuel tank 1 100 m

    3

    MS 15,000 T-03 Water tank 1 300 m

    3

    MS 32,000 S-01 Raw material silo 1 70 m

    3

    MS 30,000 MT-01 CaCl

    2

    solution mixed tank 1 50 m

    3

    MS 17,000 MT-02 Slurry mixed tank 1 20 m

    3

    MS 20,000 MT-03 Leaching first mixed tank 1 1.9 m

    3

    FRP 20,000 MT-04 Leaching second mixed tank 1 1.9 m

    3

    FRP 20,000 MT-05 Leaching third mixed tank 1 1.9 m

    3

    FRP 20,000 MT-06 Lime mixed tank 1 20 m

    3

    MS 25,000 M-01 * Grinding ball mill 1 1.80 ID 3.2 m. L RLS 900,000 M-02 * FB Aglom. dryer 1 1.48 ID 3.0 m. L MS 1,000,000 M-03 Clinker hammer mill 1 1.5 tph MS 50,000 C-01 * Adiabatic absorption tower 1 1.8 ID 8.0 m. L FRP + RLS 100,000 K-01 * Kiln 1 1 0.87 ID 12.4 m. L BL 500,000 K-02 * Kiln 2 1 0.87 ID 8.62 m. L BL 500,000 K-03 * Clinker cooler 1 1.0 ID 10 m. L SS / BL 100,000 M-04 * Belt filter 1 32 m

    2

    FRP + RLS 500,000 M-05 * Product dryer (solids) 1 700 kg/h SS 200,000 M-06 Cooling screw conveyor 1 0.1 ID 2 m. L SS 7,000 M-07 Wet cake elevator 1 1.5 tph FRP + RLS 20,000 M-08 Overhead crane 1 5 mt MS 10,000 M-09 Solids feeder 1 0.4 m

    3

    /h MS 15,000 M-10 Bagging machine 1 1 tph - 25,000 M-11 Dry granules elevator 1 2 tph SS 10,000 M-12 Wet magnetic separator 1 0.8 m

    3

    /h SS 18,000

    continued

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  • Table 8.1

    Typical Preliminary Fixed Capital Investment Estimate

    Tag Name Number Size MOC

    **

    Installed Cost

    P-01 CaCl

    2

    brine pump 1 1.3 m

    3

    /h MS 2,500 P-02 Slurry pump 1 2 m

    3

    /h MS 2,500 P-03 Clinker slurry pump 1 1.5 m

    3

    /h SS 4,000 P-04 Waste stream pump 1 5 m

    3

    /h PP 5,000 P-05 Wash water pump 1 3 m

    3

    /h PP 5,000 P-06/07 HCl solution pump 2 2 m

    3

    /h PP 10,000 P-08 Fuel pumps 1+1 0.3 m

    3

    /h MS 3,000 P-09 Water pumps 1+1 10 m

    3

    /h MS 6,000 P-10 Milk of lime pump 1 0.5 m

    3

    /h MS 2,500 Fan-01 From aglom. dryer 1 20 m

    3

    /sec MS 5,000 Fan-02 Air to combustion 4 2 m

    3

    /sec MS 6,000 Fan-04 Air to clinker cooler 1 0.7 m

    3

    /sec MS 2,000 Fan-05 To stack 1 2.5 m

    3

    /sec FRP 2,000 total 4,162,500

    * = complete package** = material of constructionFRP = fiberglass reinforced polyester; MS = mild steel; RLS = rubber-lined steel; BL = brick-lined; SS = stainless steel; PP = polypropylene

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  • But there is an additional item that is often neglected, in the experience ofthis author. That is the

    purchase cost of the internal inventory

    that is needed toarrive at the steady-state operation of the plant. At most, the relatively smallvalue of the work-in-progress is recorded, that is, the cost of the differentmaterials having intermediate compositions between the raw materials and theproducts, contained in the different pieces of equipment piping and storage. Thecost of the work-in-progress depends on the unit costs of the materials andon the various residence times (as an extreme case, consider for instance a solarpond in a salt operation, which takes several years to fill and concentrate).

    Many plants also require auxiliary purchased materials. For example, thesolvent stock in a solvent-extraction plant may account for a quite significantpart of the FCI, depending on the unit cost of the particular solvent used andon the internal volumes required. A similar situation exists with mercury cells,resins columns, circulating active-carbon, thermal oil, etc. There is definiteroom for optimization in this area, which is not always appreciated.

    This omission is often attributed to the fact that many certified accoun-tants do not accept the value of this internal inventory as part of the FCI, whichis used to calculate the tax-allowed depreciation and profitability of the invest-ment, and also to evaluate indirectly the cost of maintainance. Despite thebookkeeping formalities, however, almost all of the value of this internalinventory is a one-time expense, which cannot be recovered, even if the plantis terminated, and which, furthermore, will require some periodical make-up.

    Another controversial issue is how to handle past and future developmentexpenses, in relation to the FCI of the first plant, which could be build on amodest scale. Again, many certified accountants do not accept these develop-ment expenses as part of the FCI. There are different practices in this regard.Most corporations have probably already included the (recorded) past expensesin their yearly balances, and they are now forgotten. Other corporations mayhave capitalized these past expenses as part of their investment in specialsubsidiaries (daughter companies, joint ventures) and these sums have toreappear in a new plants investment. The same issue will be related to thetreatment of (expected) future development expenses, to the point when adecision to build a plant is reached. After that point, all development expensesare generally included in the engineering budget, a definite part of the FCI.

    Furthermore, the governments of certain developing countries encour-age the establishment of new industries (declared of national interest) bycontributing a grant of 20 to 40% of the FCI, subject to certain conditions.Such a grant could change much of the rules-of-the-game.

    8.3 Estimate of operating costs

    These operating costs are generally divided into

    fixed costs

    and

    variable costs

    ,to allow studies on the effect of different production levels. (See a typicalexample in Table 8.2.) Their estimate is a standard compilation of all thedifferent operating cost categories, that is delivery unit costs and the con-sumption of:

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  • Raw materials and different materials additives Services (see below) Any disposal cost of the waste streams Any packaging needed and the shipping of the products The maintenance of the plant, including property taxes Any contribution to maintenance of the site, taxes to the city, county, etc. The yearly cost of the plant staff and contractors Sales expenses, with any duty and taxes (if relevant) Financial costs, i.e., depreciation and interest on the operating capital Miscellaneous other minor factors

    To each significant cost category, a

    separate safety margin

    (reserve) isadded to reflect the present insufficient state of knowledge on consump-tions and actual delivery costs. These reserves can be added either in theunits needed (i.e., number of kilowatts per hour) or in the unit costs. Theseshould be noted for the record and should be reconsidered in each

    futurerevision of the operating cost

    estimate, as more reliable information is pro-gressively accumulated.

    Contrary to the FCI estimate, the detailed format used for this estimateof operating costs will probably be used later in many revisions, by otherengineers and managers, for repeated economic studies and for routine

    Table 8.2

    Typical Preliminary Operating Cost Estimate

    Fixed Cost per Year Units No. Unit Cost Total

    Management / sales employees Man-year 3 80,000 240,000Operation / shift employees Man-year 12 50,000 600,000Other employees Man-year 8 40,000 320,000Overhead on employees Estimate 250,000Indirect taxes and insurances Estimate 100,000Spare parts Estimate 100,000Waste disposal Estimate 50,000R & D Estimate 180,000Total fixed costs per year 2,000,000

    Interest on working capital per year 263,000

    Variable Costs per Ton of Product

    Raw material A Ton 1.51 435 656.85Raw material B Ton 0.916 100 91.60HCl (100% basis) Ton 0.076 35 2.66Lime Ton 0.075 100 7.50Heavy fuel Ton 0.39 35 13.65Water m

    3

    15 0.32 4.80Electricity Kwatt.h 425 0 25.50Packing and transportation to CIF

    Estimate 44.00

    Total variable costs 846.56

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  • production budget planning. So it is worthwhile to consider from the begin-ning the most convenient and detailed working format.

    8.4 Expected net sales income estimate

    The expected net sales income is generally the weaker point of thepreliminary economic study, since it has a very large leverage. It canonly be estimated, with the active contribution of the market experts andconsultants, from the

    expected sales

    of product, quantity and invoiced prices,after deducting any possible

    expense related directly to sales

    , such as thevarious freight expenses to bring the containers from the plant to the finaldestination, agents commissions, bank transfer fees, customs duties, andso on.

    The confidence level in this estimate could be very different, if:

    The product is intended to be sold in an already established market,with a recorded market

    price history

    , or within an

    exclusive sales con-tract

    to a wholesale distributor The product is relatively new or improved, and its expected sale price

    can only be based on what it

    should be

    worth to users

    In addition, the interest on working capital or the cost of the standingcredit at the bank should be estimated, from data on the percent of theproduct in store, in transit or payment delayed as per sales conditions, onthe sales revenue and on the expected level of banking interest. For example,in the above case, 3 months of credit at 7% gives an expense of $262,500 peryear for 100% production.

    8.5 Profitability calculation

    The expected profitability is calculated following one of several standard meth-ods, which are used in different countries and industrial sectors. This profit-ability is generally expressed as the percent of

    return on investment

    (ROI), beforeany taxes on corporate income or profits, or as the

    present value

    of the operationof the implemented project over a period of time, for example 10 years.

    Table 8.3 gives an example of the presentation preferred by this author,at this stage of the project review. It includes:

    A

    project cash flow

    for a period of 12 years, in which the first 2 yearsare for construction and the following 10 years for production atincreasing rates. For example, 50% of the nominal production in thethird (start-up) year, 75% in the fourth (consolidation) year, 100% forthe next 5 years, then a slight but gradual increase of production to110%. (Note that this last assumption has almost no financial conse-quence in a healthy project; it is only included as an expression ofconfidence in the future.)

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  • Table 8.3

    Typical Return On Investment Based on Cash Flow and on Present Value of Yearly Cash Flow (in $1,000)

    Total Investment 16,770Average Sales $/Ton CIF 3000 Pecent of Design Production 100Return on Investment 31.1%

    Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Fixed Capital Investment (6,708) (9,224) (839)FC Investment grant Production % of Design

    Capacity 50 75 100 100 100 100 100 105 107 110

    Total production sale value, CIF 7,500 11,250 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,750 16,050 16,500Fixed Production expenses (300) (1,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)Variable production expenses (2,141) (3,211) (4,281) (4,281) (4,281) (4,281) (4,281) (4,495) (4,581) (4,709)Interest on Working Capital (131) (197) (263) (263) (263) (263) (263) (276) (281) (289)RoyaltiesNet Cash Flow (7,008) (10,224) 2,390 5,842 8,457 8,457 8,457 8,457 8,457 8,979 9,188 9,502Disc. Net Cash Flow PV (10%

    rate) (7,008) (9,294) 1,975 4,389 5,776 5,251 4,773 4,340 3,945 3,808 3,543 3,330

    project's present value at 10% ROI

    24,828

    Disc. Net Cash Flow PV (ROI rate)

    (7,008) (7,798) 1,390 2,593 2,863 2,184 1,666 1,270 969 785 613 483

    Cum Disc. Net Cash Flow PV 9

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  • The projected

    capital investment

    is divided according to a reasonablepattern, such as 40%, 55%, and 5% in years 1, 2, and 3, unless thereis a specific reason to differ. Any expected FCI grant is deducted.

    The average

    net sales return

    per ton is taken as constant, for lack ofmore information.

    The calculated

    fixed production expenses

    (see above) start in year 1 as15% of the average, and 50% in year 2.

    The calculated

    variable production expenses

    (see above) are assumed tobe proportional to the production.

    Royalty

    payments are generally not relevant at this stage, but inter-ested parties could use this format in their eventual negotiation, tosee the impact of various royalty payments on the profitability. Thiscan be either a yearly fixed sum, a percentage of the net sales, or apercentage of the profits according to some formula.

    The

    net cash flow

    (negative or positive) is calculated for each year. Ifit is discounted at 10% (say, as a normal safe investment), the

    presentvalue of the project

    is obtained from the sum at year 1, which representsthe

    potential contribution

    of the new proposal/know-how (nearly $25million in Table 8.3).

    In addition, a

    discount rate

    can be calculated by simple trial-and-error,which results in present value = zero. This is in fact the

    ROI

    (31.1%in Table 8.3).

    Once prepared, this spreadsheet can be used easily to survey the effectof various factors on either the ROI or the present value of the operation,such as for instance, different values of FCI, net sales returns, raw materialscost, and so on.

    Different corporations use different standards to judge the attractivenessof new process proposals, according to their

    prevailing strategy

    considerations.As a

    general order of magnitude

    , however, we can say that in the free economyof the Western world, the profitability test at this stage should probably showan ROI of, at least, 25% before taxes, to justify the continuation of an intensivedevelopment and implementation effort. But if this development opens new,promising avenues to the corporation, it could well be that a lower ROI wouldbe accepted for the first plant (see also Sections 8.6 and 8.7 below).

    Of course, the degree of taxation varies in different locations and situa-tions. Certain countries promote the establishment of new industries byproviding them with an investment grant (say, as a fixed percentage) or witha period of reduced (or no) income-tax payment.

    8.6 Optimistic evaluation of the profit potential in other applications

    Together with the profitability study, the promoters could also develop andpresent to the decision makers the possibility that the proposed process mayhave a

    larger potential for profitable applications

    , once the first implementation

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  • is proven to be successful. Such larger profit potential can be in one or moreof the following forms:

    1. The simplest formula is

    increased production volume

    at the same sitein the future. This extra product can be obtained practically withthe same management and services, by making use of the built-inoversized facility and of the experience gained by the operatingstaff, and could be sold in developing markets. Thus, instead of theusual cash flow and profitability spreadsheet based on the presentnominal capacity for 10 years, an alternative spreadsheet could beprepared in which the production would be increased by 10% (forexample) every 2 to 3 years and the span increased over 15 years,reaching 150%. This is a frequently used format. Table 8.4 illustratesthis change with regard to Table 8.3 above. It can be seen that onthis basis, the projects net present value at 10% discount rate in-creased from $25 to $46 million. Note that the increase in ROI isnot as spectacular, only from 31.1% to 32.8%. This is typical of thecases with quite high ROI, where the contributions of the later yearsare felt less and less. For another case with an ROI of 15%, thisincreased production could have raised the resulting ROI to 25%,and this change would have made a different impact.

    2. Another commonly considered possibility involves future repeatplants built in other locations or countries, on the basis of the expe-rience learned in the first plant.

    3. A more complex possibility is the adaptation of the novel processtechnology to the production or improvement of (a line of) similarnew products.

    The presentation of such potential applications could change the per-spective of the decision makers from short-term cash flow into a widercorporate strategy. Of course, the access and exclusivity of these optionswould need to be secured by adequate patents.

    8.7 Possible synergetic effects with other production facilities

    In many cases, the promoters may also gain the goodwill of the decisionmakers by pointing out synergetic (that is, mutually profitable) effectsbetween the proposed project and some other existing or planned industrialfacility of the corporation. For example, the proposed project may:

    1. Use or upgrade the value of a by-product or waste stream. For example,the recovery and profitable use of valuable acids from a waste stream,instead of neutralizing them, or the utilization of excess concentratedthermal energy, instead of dispersing it into the surroundings.

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  • Table 8.4

    Typical Return On Investment with increased production volume and on Present Value of yearly Cash Flow based on Cash Flow

    Total investment 16,770Average sales $ /

    ton CIF3000

    % of design production

    100

    Return on investment

    32.77%

    Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

    Fixed Capital Investment

    (6,708) (9,224) (839)

    F C Investment grant ( 20% )

    Production % of Design Capacity

    50 75 100 100 110 110 120 120 120 130 130 140 140 150 150

    Total production sale value, CIF

    7,500 11,250 15,000 15,000 16,500 16,500 18,000 18,000 18,000 19,500 19,500 21,000 21,000 22,500 22,500

    Fixed Production expenses

    (300) (1,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000) (2,000)

    Variable production expenses

    (2,141) (3,211) (4,281) (4,281) (4,709) (4,709) (5,137) (5,137) (5,137) (5,565) (5,565) (5,993) (5,993) (6,422) (6,422)

    Interest on Working Capital

    (131) (197) (263) (263) (289) (289) (315) (315) (315) (341) (341) (368) (368) (394) (394)

    RoyaltiesNet Cash Flow (7,008) (10,224) 2,390 5,842 8,457 8,457 9,502 9,502 10,548 10,548 10,548 11,593 11,593 12,639 12,639 13,685 13,685Disc. Net Cash

    Flow PV (10% rate)

    (7,008) (9,294) 1,975 4,389 5,776 5,251 5,364 4,876 4,921 4,473 4,067 4,063 3,694 3,661 3,328 3,276 2,978

    project's present value at 10% ROI

    45,791

    Disc. Net Cash Flow PV (ROI rate)

    (7,008) (7,700) 1,356 2,496 2,721 2,050 1,735 1,307 1,092 823 620 513 386 317 239 195 147

    Cum Disc. Net Cash Flow PV

    4

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  • 2. Make use of idle production capacity in certain operations, in pack-aging or in utilities generation, or exploit the significant cost advan-tage of larger installations.

    3. Utilize available developed land, roads, warehouses, and similarfacilities.

    4. Participate in a combined marketing effort aimed at the same users,for example in the compound fertilizers market.

    Such interactions would involve the management of the existing oper-ation and, obviously, their essential cooperation and good will should besecured by the promoters before the above claims are presented to a largeraudience.

    8.8 Comprehensive report for the justification of the specific proposal

    The expected profitability is the bottom line of a comprehensive reportpresented to the relevant corporate management for a detailed and exhaus-tive review leading to a no/maybe decision, which should include, withan

    executive summary

    :

    The preliminary process design detailed in Chapter 7 The economic estimates listed above in this chapter The profit potential for other applications, described in Section 8.6 Some possible synergetic effects, described in Section 8.7

    Many proposed projects have met their end at this stage (NO), as thecalculated profitability level was considered, in the eyes of the decisionmakers, definitely not good enough and with no reasonable prospects ofimprovement.

    If the profitability potential does look promising (MAYBE), a go-aheadwill be given for the next stage of the development program, as discussedin the next chapter. In this case, the above preliminary economic study willbe also used to emphasize those cost items that are really heavy, for whichimprovements during the development program could result in a significantpositive effect.

    8.9 Contractual agreements

    Any authorization given by the corporate management for the next stage ofdevelopment will probably be conditional on the finalization of two contrac-tual agreements.

    First, relationships between the inventors/promoters and the imple-menting corporation need to be finalized at this point by a formal contract.Prior to this, an exclusive option agreement may have been signed for a

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  • limited period, conditional on the decision by the corporation to build aplant, by a certain date. The details to be included in such a contract dependvery much on the particular situation and cannot be discussed here, but thebasic interests of each party are clear:

    The inventors/promoters really want the project to succeed, andthey generally believe that they can contribute to that success byhaving a say in any major decision making in future. They alsowant clear public recognition and, of course, the maximum finan-cial remuneration possible, in relation to their optimistic profitpotential.

    The implementing corporation wants to secure the full cooperationand contributions of the inventors/promoters in the future, includingthe assignment of (present and future) patents, exclusivity on theirpast know-how and on their future work in this field for many years.The corporation would like all this, of course, at a minimum costwithout conceding any part of its decision-making position. To assurethat position, the financial remuneration may be divided into pro-gressive installments.

    Once this contract is signed, the overall responsibility of the workingprogram will be transferred to the project manager appointed by the cor-poration. The inventors/promoters will generally continue their contribu-tion as consultants.

    Second, a suitable engineering company should be selected andengaged by a service contract that, although quite standard in nature,always includes many specific clauses (see also Chapter 10, Section 10.5).The engineering company will provide many of the professionals neededfor the working program, mostly from their permanent offices, but someof them may also be delegated to the project manager s team or to thedifferent pilot sites.

    The project manager will likely chose the engineering company basedon past experience and will generally include, as a basic condition, a list ofeight to ten key leaders, employees of the engineering company, who willbe assigned to work most of their time on the project.

    8.10 Worth another thought

    The only purpose of the preliminary economic analysis of the pro-posal is to supply information on the profit potential and to justifythe continued expense for its development.

    The presentation of a larger potential of profitable applications, oncethe first implementation is proven to be successful, could change theviewpoint of the decision makers from the short-term cash flow to awider corporate strategy.

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  • References

    1. Peters, M. S. and Timmerhaus, K.,

    Plant Design and Economics for ChemicalEngineers, 4th ed

    ., McGraw-Hill, New York, 1990.2. Chauvet, A., Leprince, P., Barthel, Y., Raimbault, C., and Arlie, J. P.,

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    Developing an Industrial Chemical Process, An Integrated ApproachTable of ContentsChapter 08: Economic analysis of the specific proposal8.1 Purpose8.2 Preliminary estimate of the Fixed Capital Investment (revision 0)8.3 Estimate of operating costs8.4 Expected net sales income estimate8.5 Profitability calculation8.6 Optimistic evaluation of the profit potential in other applications8.7 Possible synergetic effects with other production facilities8.8 Comprehensive report for the justification of the specific proposal8.9 Contractual agreements8.10 Worth another thoughtReferences