15
14 th Annual Air Quality Governance Lekgotla Modise Molefe Benefits of Urban Climate Action for eThekwini Metro Protea Hotel by Marriot Technopark -Stellenbosch 1-4 October 2019
14th Annual Air Quality Governance LekgotlaModise Molefe
Benefits of Urban Climate Action for eThekwini Metro
Protea Hotel by Marriot Technopark -Stellenbosch
1-4 October 2019
Outline1. Climate, Air Quality and Health
2. Understanding the Problem
3. Action
4. The Benefits
5. Driving Action
6. Next Steps
7. Methods and Assumptions
2019/09/30 2
Climate, Air Quality
and Health
• . • The C40 is a Climate Action group that
connects over 90 of the worlds leading citiesto take bold climate action and build ahealthier more sustainable future.
• The C40 has patterned with Johnson andJohnson to conduct cutting edge research onconnecting the dots between climate action,improved air quality in cities and betterhealth among citizens.
• Cities are responsible for 70% of global CO2
emissions and play a leading role in reducingGHG emissions and meeting Paris agreement.
• Simultaneously cities need to take adaptationmeasures to protect themselves againstcurrent and future extreme weather events.
• Finally cities need to attend to local issues ofpollution, including pollutants and toxiccompounds. Pollutants such as PM and NO2
present major risk to peoples healthparticularly children and the elderly. PM2.5
penetrate deep into the lungs and is linked torespiratory and cardiovascular diseases anddeaths. Long term exposure to NO2 causesinflammation of air ways and respiratorydisease.2019/30/09 3
In order to tackle both climate change and air quality
cities need clean and efficient transport, buildings
and industry.
eThekwini DPSIR
2019/09/30 4
Understanding the problem• Industry is an important sector in
eThekwini economy but also mostpolluting.
• South Durban Basin(SDB) alone hasover 120 industries plus the mostconcentrated petrochemicalindustries in South Africa.
• The population within SBD of 240000 is subject to critical airpollution levels.
• Health impacts from poor airquality such as asthma and otherrespiratory illnesses have been akey issue in these industrial areas.
2019/09/30 5
The Action • The NEMAQA requires municipalities to appointAQO’s, develop and implement AQMP’s and regulatetheir industries using tools such as AEL.
• This should happen by controlled emitters complyingwith standards in 2018 and LA to complying with NewPlant standards by 2020.
• The AQMP identifies AQ hotspots like PM10 inHambanathi(Tongaat), PM2,5 & NO2 in SDB, PM2,5 andSO2 in uMkomaas and NO2 in CBD.
• The PPP regs requires large emitters of GHG to comeup with a plan of reducing emissions. In addition thecity has developed the DCCS with one of the keythemes in adaptation and mitigation being health andenergy efficiency.
• These set of acts, regulations, strategies and plansneed to work in synergy to yield effective and efficientresults.
50% reduction in PM2.5
from industry
30% reduction in Nox emissions from industry
2019/09/30 6
The Benefits
• With help from C40 the city analysed the social and economic impacts of industries complying with MES’s. The results showed this would have a massive improvement on air quality which in turn would improve the populations health and produce considerable economic benefits.
• The air quality improvements leads to reduced burden of cardiovascular and respiratory related disease and deaths.
• Hospital admissions are used as anindicator of morbidity(diseases),while the change in prematuredeaths, life expectancy and lifeyears gained is used to quantifymortality impacts.
• The economic impact representsthe monetary value of averting ahospital admission and of gainingan extra year of life.
• The Value of Life Year(VOLY) andValue of Hospital Admission(VHA)were used to calculate theeconomic costs.
2019/09/30 7
2019/09/30 8
With help from C40 the city analysed the
social and economic impacts of industries
complying with MES’s.
The results showed this would have a
massive improvement on air quality, reducing
PM2.5 non-background concentration by a
quarter, which in turn would improve the
populations health and produce considerable
economic benefits.
AIR QUALITY
CITY SDB
2019/09/30 9
The air quality improvements leads to
reduced burden of cardiovascular (CVD) and
respiratory related disease and deaths.
This means that 150 premature deaths and
130 hospital admissions can be averted each
year from CVD and respiratory diseases.
Citizens can expect to gain 20 days additional
of life expectancy. For people living in SDB,
the increased days can reach 110 days (3.6
months), due to their improved direct
environment. HEALTH
150 PREMATURE DEATHS AVERTED PER YEAR
130 AVERTED HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS PER YEAR
+20 DAYS
INCREASE IN LIFE EXPECTANCY PER CITIZEN
2019/09/30 10
Using city wide assumptions as per source
apportionment economic impact reduced due
to premature death is R2,885 billion.
Avoided respiratory hospital admission
amounts to R19,6 million annually
Avoided hospital admission costs due to CVD
is R8,1million annually.
ECONOMIC
City Wide Intervention Area
Driving Action
2019/09/30 11
Next Steps
2019/09/30 12
Methods and Assumptions• City average and background concentrations were derived from Wentworth, City Hall,
New Germany, Cato Ridge and Hambanathi AQMS.
• Health impacts estimates are based on PM2,5 and NO2 with only a third of the NO2 added.
• Population and health data at national level were used assuming representative
distribution to Durban. Burden of air pollution on mortality was calculated using RR from
published studies relating air pollution and health and applied to the difference between
city wide PM2.5 concentrations & GBD theoretical minimum exposure of 5,8µg/m3 and to
the mortality rate of the local population assuming impact to adults that are above 30 yrs
old only.
• Proxy data from London used for VOLY and VHA and converted from 2017 USD using the
relevant PPP exchange rate
2019/09/30 13
Next Steps• Improve on air quality monitoring data and station maintenance to ensure good
quality data.
• Collecting data on Durban's mortality and hospital admissions.
• Carry out health economics studies to determine VOLY and VHA.
• Plan source apportionment geographically to prioritize focus actions.
• Determining benefits of actions on other sectors or sources such as vehicle
emission.
2019/09/30 14
