1.4 Demographic Change

Is urbanisation a solution or a problem for improving sanitation?

Learning objectives: to gain insights about the role of demography in sanitation planning and implementation

Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

The Urban Sanitation Challenge

World population (in billions): 2000 2050 (estimate)

Total 6

Rural 3

Urban 3

3

6

Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

Thus, new housing on virgin land in new cities provides excellent opportunities for new sanitation options to fulfil

the Millennium Development Goals for sanitation

9

Population growth rates and the proportion living in informal settlements: means for the largest cities (%)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Africa Asia LA & C Oceania Europe

Informal settlementsPopulation growth/year

%

Source: UNDP& Unicef 2003

LA & C = Latin America and the Caribbean

Treated waste-water

City council capacity to do its part

Source: UNDP& Unicef 2003

%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Africa Asia LA & C America Europe

Proportion of wastewater being effectively treated

Demografic patterns are decisive: The growth-infrastructure hypotheses

Population

Time

transi-tion

transi-tion

Slow develop-ment of the infrastructure

Lowering portion or even absolute decrease of infrastructure

Rapid improvement

Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

How to manage sanitation arrangements?

Turn-key management where the utility (private or public) provides the service and the residents just pay the bill

Own-key management where single households or housing associations initiate, build and control, while they put to use available skills, materials, and other local resources

Turn-key Own-key

WC &sewerage

Dry urine-diverting toilet

Dug latrine Aqua privyJan-Olof Drangert. Linköping University, Sweden

A key question is about control, not decentralisation. Two extremes:

Example: Evolution of w&s in Kisumu town, Kenya

1963 200019501900

Turn-key

Own- key

Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

350,000

200,000

300,000

100,000

50,000

Population

Indepen-dence

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

piped water

sewerage

wc

Norrköping

Example: Evolution of w&s in Norrköping, Sweden

Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

Norrköping(thousands)

First piped water

Town area expansion

Town area expansion

Town area expansion

Hypotheses on best management optionPopulation

transi-tion

transi-tion

own-key own-key own-key

Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

pro

po

rtio

ns Turn-key Turn-keyTurn-key

Time

Economic Development and Water Supply in a ' Secondary city'National GDP per person real with 0.88% and 2.15% per year trend lines

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

Present low-income economies average GNI pc at PPP

Present lower middle-income

Present upper middle-income

High-inc

Water Closets becoming popular in capital cityNewly installed WCs discharging to ditches, Hagley Road

Ordure is emptied anywhere at nightfall; The city’s first public wash house opened in Kent StreetMind where you tread, Sir, for the children have been here'One third of city using unimproved pit latrines First sewage farm acquired

City trying to convert to bucket latrines as improvement'One in three artisan families still had to share external toilet with neighbours'45% households access bucket latrines (1 per 10 HHs) 15% using unimproved pit latrines;

Over half houses get WCs - most still outsideopen 'drainage [in one slum court] is so vile that the air seems positively putrid' 20% lacking a WC Still shared toilets for slums

Household toilets generally achieved

'Cost reflective tariffs' required for newly privatised providers (300 year sewer

replacement cycle?)

Source: Cranfield university, UK

Economic development and w&s in Cranfield, UK National GDP per person real with 0.88% and 2.15% per year trend lines

Evolution of indoor water taps in rural Sweden

1900 1950

100%10 Mil

17%

2000

50%

29%

63%

70%

10%

90%

Gradual improvement towards full coverage

BUT, what about the impact of urbanisation?

5 Mil

Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

Why do we often act as if we were only a few hundred million people on earth?

• Small farmers understand and practise reuse, but urban residents do not

• Ever more people live in big villages and towns

• Most farmers have had access to chemical fertilisers this far

• Change comes with a cost

• But, there is also a saving; better food security

Local experience

global understanding

Jan-Olof Drangert, Linköping University, Sweden

However we still act as if we were a few hundred million people on earth