Daily Market Outlook 14 Mar 2016 1 Please see disclaimer on last page More understanding of ECB’s moves Thai shares look set to rise today tracking gains on global equities after ECB’s latest easing measures now are viewed far more positively than when they were first announced. The focus this week is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday and the consensus is that the central bank will stand pat. Global risk assets will also be supported by resumed rising oil prices, despite a series of weak Chinese data. Local factors today do not directly support or weigh down short-term market sentiment but they are positive to the economy in the longer term, e.g. the government targeting Iran as the next key export market and more loan facilities to support SMEs. Pick of the day: GPSC (Bt26.00; NR; Bloomberg TP Bt30.13) Global Power Synergy Plc's earnings growth is expected to accelerate over the next three years, while it has very secure revenue flows and cash and an appealing dividend. GPSC has committed to a plan to increase its power generation capacity by 16% p.a. over the next 5 years to 2,850 MW, from 1,338 MW at present. It has already secured its statutory 1,917MW capacity through a power purchase agreement (PPA) with state power authorities. This ambitious plan is made possible by its strong financial position after the IPO issuance last year. GPSC still benefits from the currently low gas costs as its gas- fired power accounts for around 80% of total capacity. According to Bloomberg’s earnings consensus, its EPS growth is expected to be a moderate 2.6% this year, before accelerating to a robust 21% next year and 47% in 2018, driven by the successive commercial operations of power plant projects on hand. In addition to the growth prospect, the share price offers a pleasing dividend yield of around 4.0% p.a. GPSC’s price pattern has shown increasing strength, with a daily and weekly buy signal along with a high chance for a monthly buy signal to occur if the share price manages to close above Bt24.20 by the end of the month. The share is likely to close above the main target at Bt26.25 before moving up to test its last-high level at Bt27.75 and making an all-time-high level at a target of Bt29.25. There is a stop loss at Bt24.30. (Resistance: 26.25, 26.75, 27.50; Support: 25.75, 25.25, 24.30) Local issue Targets Iran as key Middle East export market. After recent talks with Iranian Foreign Minister at government House, the government is interested in Iran as a key export market in the Middle East, following the lifting of international sanctions against the country, as well as cooperation between Thailand and Iran including trade, investment, energy and transport. (Bangkok Post) Major Indices Close Chg %Chg SET 1,379.06 -11.6 -0.8 SET50 887.86 -12.6 -1.4 SET P/E (x) 20.4 SET P/BV (x) 1.8 SET Div. Yield (%) 3.3 Dow Jones 17,213.31 +218.2 +1.3 S&P 500 2,022.19 +32.6 +1.6 NASDAQ 4,748.47 +86.3 +1.9 UK 6,139.79 +103.1 +1.7 Germany 9,831.13 +333.0 +3.5 France 4,492.79 +142.4 +3.3 Japan 16,852.35 +210.2 +1.3 South Korea 1,969.33 +16.4 +0.8 Hong Kong 19,984.42 -11.8 -0.1 China 2,804.35 -58.2 -2.0 Taiwan 8,660.70 +26.6 +0.3 Singapore 2,809.12 -1.3 -0.0 Malaysia 1,690.91 +4.6 +0.3 Indonesia 4,793.20 -17.8 -0.4 Philippines 7,048.08 +99.9 +1.4 Trading Summary Buy Sell Net Institution 4,254 4,407 -153 Proprietary 7,303 5,921 1,382 Foreign 11,119 10,976 143 Individuals 19,200 28,071 -1,373 Total Trading Value 49,374 Btmn Most Active Value Value Close %Chg TRUE 2,616 8.15 0.0 JAS 2,471 3.66 0.0 ADVANC 2,402 177.50 0.0 BANPU 1,933 18.90 0.0 PTT 1,851 275.00 0.0 Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg US Crude 38.69 +0.9 +2.2 Brent Crude 40.39 +0.3 +0.8 Gold 1,259.40 -13.4 -1.1 FX Rates Close Chg %Chg USD/THB 35.71 +0.0 +0.1 EUR/USD 1.06 -0.0 -0.2 USD/JPY 122.60 -0.1 -0.1 USD/CNY 6.39 +0.0 +0.0 Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg Technical picks (support & resistance) TPIPL (S: 2.44, R: 2.90); PTTGC (S: 57.25, R: 61.50); BLA (S: 41.50, R: 44.50); SET (S: 1,381, R: 1,410) Thailand Research Department Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041 Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090 Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056 Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094 Ms. Sukanya Leelarwerachai (No.68790) Tel: 02 680 5331
Transcript
Daily Market Outlook 14 Mar 2016
1
Please see disclaimer on last page
More understanding of ECB’s moves Thai shares look set to rise today tracking gains on global
equities after ECB’s latest easing measures now are viewed
far more positively than when they were first announced. The
focus this week is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday and the consensus is that the central bank will
stand pat. Global risk assets will also be supported by resumed
rising oil prices, despite a series of weak Chinese data. Local
factors today do not directly support or weigh down short-term
market sentiment but they are positive to the economy in the
longer term, e.g. the government targeting Iran as the next key
export market and more loan facilities to support SMEs. Pick of the day: GPSC (Bt26.00; NR; Bloomberg TP
Bt30.13)
Global Power Synergy Plc's earnings growth is expected to
accelerate over the next three years, while it has very secure
revenue flows and cash and an appealing dividend. GPSC has
committed to a plan to increase its power generation capacity
by 16% p.a. over the next 5 years to 2,850 MW, from 1,338
MW at present. It has already secured its statutory 1,917MW
capacity through a power purchase agreement (PPA) with
state power authorities. This ambitious plan is made possible
by its strong financial position after the IPO issuance last year.
GPSC still benefits from the currently low gas costs as its gas-
fired power accounts for around 80% of total capacity.
According to Bloomberg’s earnings consensus, its EPS growth
is expected to be a moderate 2.6% this year, before
accelerating to a robust 21% next year and 47% in 2018,
driven by the successive commercial operations of power plant
projects on hand. In addition to the growth prospect, the share
price offers a pleasing dividend yield of around 4.0%
p.a. GPSC’s price pattern has shown increasing strength, with
a daily and weekly buy signal along with a high chance for a
monthly buy signal to occur if the share price manages to close
above Bt24.20 by the end of the month. The share is likely to
close above the main target at Bt26.25 before moving up to
test its last-high level at Bt27.75 and making an all-time-high
level at a target of Bt29.25. There is a stop loss at
