14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20 Mphasis HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Positives outweigh the risks Maintain ADD on Mphasis supported by in-line 4Q rev and operating performance. Despite DXC-HP portfolio underperformance & uncertainty, (1) Continuity of strong growth vectors in Direct Core, (2) Industry tailwinds in Digital Risk, and (3) Attractive valuations (11.7x FY22E with FCF yield >10%, Dividend yield >4% and RoIC >25%) support our constructive stance. Our TP of Mphasis is Rs 825, at 12x FY22E EPS. Strong deal wins in Direct International: Mphasis’ revenue growth was +1.5/11.1% QoQ/YoY CC, supported by (1) Strong growth in Direct Core at +2.6/13.6% QoQ/YoY, (2) DXC-HP channel posting -1/+2.1% QoQ/YoY CC, and (3) Digital Risk growing 3.5% QoQ. 4Q TCV bookings of Direct International was USD 201mn, +6.3/53.4% QoQ/YoY (16.1% in FY20), 79% of 4Q TCV were in new-gen areas, increase in share of large deals (>USD 25mn) and improving annuity. Direct Core outperformance to continue: For FY20, rev growth was 11.7% CC with Direct Core growth at 15.4% CC, Digital Risk growth at 7% and DXC-HP channel growth at 7.5% CC. Within Direct Core, apart from the strategic accounts, new logo wins and Blackstone portfolio (growing 40-50% YoY) are contributing to the overall Direct Core growth. USD 5mn+ client bucket and USD 1mn+ client bucket expanded to 31 and 76, respectively (up from 27 & 64 in FY19) in Direct International. DXC-HP uncertainty persists, but downside protected: DXC-HP channel has decelerated following a stellar growth over FY17-19. Geo diversification, industry focus and strategic partnership are expected to support the revenue run-rate. The downside is protected with the residual minimum revenue commitment of USD 300mn for the next 6 qtrs within DXC (88% of DXC-HP channel); we have factored USD 465mn for next 6 qtrs (vs. USD 500mn posted in trailing 6 qtrs). Operational resilience & improved cash conversion: EBIT% came in-line at 16.3%, +10bps QoQ. APAT at Rs 3.11bn (adj. for one-time income tax benefit of Rs 0.42bn) was supported by higher other income. DSO (including unbilled) reverted to 73 days following a spike in FY19 supporting improvement in cash generation with OCF-EBITDA/FCF-APAT at 80/105% in FY20, respectively (vs. 72/65% in FY19). Dividend payout improved to 55% in FY20 (vs. 48% in FY19). Valuation and view: We’ve factored flat revenue in FY21 and rebound to +8.8% in FY22 with Direct Core growth at +2.3/13.3%, Digital Risk growth at +12.1/7.4% and DXC-HP at -7.5/+0.6% for FY21/22. Factored margin drop of 120bps for FY21 with EBIT% at 14.8/16.0% for FY21/22. Mphasis trades at an attractive valuation of 11.7x FY22E (vs. 13x 10-yr avg.). Financial Summary YE Mar (Rs bn) 4Q FY20 4Q FY19 YoY (%) 3Q FY20 QoQ (%) FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Net Revenues 23.46 20.25 15.9 22.77 3.1 65.46 77.31 88.44 90.59 99.92 EBIT 3.83 3.20 19.6 3.69 3.7 9.92 12.48 14.19 13.45 16.03 APAT 3.11 2.66 16.8 2.94 5.9 8.46 10.73 11.42 10.72 12.80 Diluted EPS (Rs) 16.7 14.3 16.7 15.8 5.9 45.4 57.6 61.3 57.5 68.7 P/E (x) 17.7 13.9 13.1 14.0 11.7 EV / EBITDA (x) 12.2 10.3 8.0 8.2 6.8 RoE (%) 14.6 20.0 20.6 17.9 20.1 Source: Company, HSIE Research ADD CMP (as on 14 May 2020) Rs 803 Target Price Rs 825 NIFTY 9,143 KEY CHANGES OLD NEW Rating ADD ADD Price Target Rs 800 Rs 825 EPS % FY21E FY22E -3.6% 2.7% KEY STOCK DATA Bloomberg code MPHL IN No. of Shares (mn) 187 MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 150/1,986 6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 264 52 Week high / low Rs 1,018/612 STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) 3M 6M 12M Absolute (%) (11.4) (10.1) (16.6) Relative (%) 13.2 12.7 0.0 SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) Dec-19 Mar-20 Promoters 52.20 56.18 FIs & Local MFs 13.87 14.12 FPIs 28.52 23.87 Public & Others 5.41 5.83 Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00 Source : BSE Apurva Prasad [email protected]+91-22-6171-7327 Amit Chandra [email protected]+91-22-6171-7345 Vinesh Vala [email protected]+91-22-6171-7332
Transcript
14 May 2020 Results Review 4QFY20
Mphasis
HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters
Positives outweigh the risks
Maintain ADD on Mphasis supported by in-line 4Q rev and operating
From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system
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Mphasis: Results Review 4QFY20
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