140224 Vietnam Quant Weekly

8/12/2019 140224 Vietnam Quant Weekly

1/13

24 Feb 2014Tuan [email protected]

Hoang [email protected]

Vietnam equity fund flows weekly (US$, mn)

Source: Bloomberg

Vietnam market enjoyed its 8thconsecutive week of net inflows,regarding that EMs posted

their 17thweek of net outflows. We believe that EMs funds outflows were mainly driven by QE

tapering movements of Fed since May 2013. According to Bloomberg data, funds that buy

shares from less developed countries have witnessed an inflows of US$407 mn while US$21 bn

was pulled out of emerging markets in the first 6 weeks of 2014. Theinflow reflected benchmark

stock indexes in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Vietnam, whose central banks control local

currencies, are among the 10 best performers this year within global equity gauges tracked by

Bloomberg,said Maria Levitov in her article Front ier-Market Funds Pour in Boosted b y Fixed

Currencies(Feb 21 2014).

Vietnam continues seeing net inflows of US$20 million in the previous week, accumulating the

year-to-date inflows to US$135 million. The strong inflows to Vietnam market were led by foreign

investorsbetting on easing Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL). And the two ETFs remains as key

drivers when they increased their outstanding shares by 8-10% year-to-date. The mass media

reported that the authorities may ease the FOL to 100% for non-state control sectors or apply

non-voting depository receipt (NVDR) to attract more capital inflows. Banking, Property and

Utilities sector were top inflows while Consumer goods and Healthcare sector suffered marginal

outflow.

Vietnam bond market posted it 2ndweek of inflows. Foreign funds uploaded US$44 mn of G-

bond via secondary market. Vietnam bond yield resumed downward trend after long sideway.

Lower bond yield may indicate a more stable macro condition, a background for further economic

growth in the future.

Vietnam ETF Tracker: Divergence. VNM increased its outstanding shares by 400,000 units to

22 million share. Meanwhile, XVFT redeemed 180,000 units to lower its outstanding shares to 13

million but still increase 8% year-to-date. XFVT and VNM will released their 1Q14 rebalancing

results in 07 March and 14 March respectively.

| Summary |

Vietnam market enjoyed its 8 thconsecutive week of net inflows since foreign investors bet on easing

Foreign Ownership Limit (FOL).

Vietnam bond market posted its second week of inflows as lower yield.

Vietnam ETF Tracker: Divergence Vietnam Market Victor ETF (VNM) increased its outstanding

share, DB x-Tracker ETF redeemed before their f irst quarterly rebalancing day of FY2014.

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Jan-12

Mar-12

May-12

Jul-12

Sep-12

Nov-12

Jan-13

Mar-13

May-13

Jul-13

Sep-13

Nov-13

Jan-14

XFVT

VNM

ETFs Outstanding shares (Units, mn)

Source: Bloomberg

21

8

28

34

13

-

12

20

1-Jan

8-Jan

15-Jan

22-Jan

29-Jan

5-Feb

12-Feb

19-Feb
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


2/13

Foreign investors net purchase by country (US$ m)

Source: MAS Research, Bloomberg

2

Weekly key table

Country1 week net inflow

4 weektotal

YTD2014

Annual net inflow

19-Feb 12-Feb 05-Feb 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009

India 175 -130 -265 -549 -124 20,100 24,548 -512 29,321 17,639

Indonesia 257 222 -65 324 625 -1,721 1,713 1,315 2,183 1,377

Philippines 27 34 -82 -78 -108 729 2,548 1,329 1,224 420

Korea -103 56 -1,261 -2,253 -2,504 5,859 15,044 -7,196 18,986 24,808

Taiwan 918 -882 -1,477 -1,921 -636 9,284 4,915 -9,479 9,246 14,742

Thailand -40 -151 -515 -872 -948 -6,089 2,503 -164 2,689 1,136

Vietnam 20 12 0 45 135 318 160 55 725 166


3/13

Vietnam foreign net inflow by sectors (US$ m)

Source: MAS Research

3

Weekly key table

Sector1 week net inflow

4 weektotal

YTD2014

Net flow2013

Net Asset Value

19-Feb 12-Feb 05-Feb

21-Feb

2014 2013 2012

Banking 5.1 2.8 0.0 10.7 28.8 1.5 2,126 1,986 1,499

Basic Materials 0.5 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 14.7 74.5 927 820 516

Consumer goods 4.4 2.3 0.0 8.3 -2.2 124.0 4,483 4,200 2,282

Consumer services 0.0 -0.7 0.0 -0.6 -1.1 14.9 52 50 16

Finance & Real Estate 1.6 6.3 0.0 14.0 36.8 -6.2 1,982 1,606 1,401

Health Care 0.1 -0.7 0.0 -0.8 -0.4 3.3 337 296 185

Industrials 3.4 0.8 0.0 5.5 11.3 26.0 817 700 388

IT -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 1.5 388 317 240

Oil and Gas 3.0 -0.8 0.0 1.9 17.6 37.8 575 427 182

Utilities 2.2 2.7 0.0 6.8 29.8 41.0 340 262 127

Total 20.3 12.4 0.0 45.3 135.3 318.3 12,029 10,665 6,839


4/13

Inflow by sectors (US$ m)


Oil and Gas

Health Care

Basic Materials

Utilities

4

Weekly key table

(1)

9

19

29

39

49

59

69

79

89

99

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

20-Feb

13-Mar

3-Apr

1-May

22-May

12-Jun

3-Jul

24-Jul

14-Aug

4-Sep

25-Sep

16-Oct

6-Nov

27-Nov

18-Dec

8-Jan

29-Jan

19-Feb

Weekly Flow (LHS) Accumulated net Flow (RHS)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)-

2

4

6

8

10

12

20-Feb

13-Mar

3-Apr

1-May

22-May

12-Jun

3-Jul

24-Jul

14-Aug

4-Sep

25-Sep

16-Oct

6-Nov

27-Nov

18-Dec

8-Jan

29-Jan

19-Feb


-

10

20

30

40

50

60

(6)

(4)

(2)

-

2

4

6

8

2

0-Feb

1

3-Mar

3-Apr

1-May

2

2-May

12-Jun

3-Jul

24-Jul

1

4-Aug

4-Sep

2

5-Sep

16-Oct

6-Nov

2

7-Nov

1

8-Dec

8-Jan

29-Jan

1

9-Feb


-

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

(1)

(1)

(0)

(0)

-

0

0

1

20-Feb

13-Mar

3-Apr

1-May

22-May

12-Jun

3-Jul

24-Jul

14-Aug

4-Sep

25-Sep

16-Oct

6-Nov

27-Nov

18-Dec

8-Jan

29-Jan

19-Feb



5/13

Weekly key table

Inflow by sectors (US$ m)


Industrials

Banking

Consumer goods

Finance and Real Estate

5

(30)

(10)

10

30

50

7090

110

130

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

3040

50

60

20-Feb

13-Mar

3-Apr

1-May

2

2-May

12-Jun

3-Jul

24-Jul

14-Aug

4-Sep

25-Sep

16-Oct

6-Nov

27-Nov

18-Dec

8-Jan

29-Jan

19-Feb


(30)

(20)

(10)

-10

20

30

40

50

60

70

(30)

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

30

40

50

20-Feb

13-Mar

3-Apr

1-May

22-May

12-Jun

3-Jul

24-Jul

14-Aug

4-Sep

25-Sep

16-Oct

6-Nov

27-Nov

18-Dec

8-Jan

29-Jan

19-Feb


-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

(8)

(6)

(4)

(2)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

2

0-Feb

1

3-Mar

3-Apr

1-May

2

2-May

12-Jun

3-Jul

24-Jul

1

4-Aug

4-Sep

2

5-Sep

16-Oct

6-Nov

2

7-Nov

1

8-Dec

8-Jan

29-Jan

1

9-Feb


(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

30

40

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

20-Feb

13-Mar

3-Apr

1-May

22-May

12-Jun

3-Jul

24-Jul

14-Aug

4-Sep

25-Sep

16-Oct

6-Nov

27-Nov

18-Dec

8-Jan

29-Jan

19-Feb



6/13

Weekly key table

Foreign investors net purchase (US$ m)


6

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

-

10

20

30

40

27-Feb-13

13-Mar-13

27-Mar-13

10-Apr-13

1-May-13

15-May-13

29-May-13

12-Jun-13

26-Jun-13

10-Jul-13

24-Jul-13

7-Aug-13

21-Aug-13

4-Sep-13

18-Sep-13

2-Oct-13

16-Oct-13

30-Oct-13

13-Nov-13

27-Nov-13

11-Dec-13

25-Dec-13

8-Jan-14

22-Jan-14

5-Feb-14

19-Feb-14

Weekly Flow (LHS) Accumulated net Flow (RHS) 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Weekly Flow (LHS))


7/13

Top holdings: Market Vectors Vietnam ETF


7

Code Company % /Nav Value US$ m Code Company % /Nav Value US$ m

PVS Petrovietnam Tec 8.6% 39,2 SHB SG-HN Bank 3.8% 17,5

VIC VINGROUP 7.7% 35,3 MIN Minor Inter-Nvdr 3.8% 17,2

VCB Vietcombank 7.6% 34,5 ONG Oil & Natural Ga 3.7% 17,1

BVH Bao viet Holdings 6.8% 31,1 ITA Tan Tao Group 3.7% 17,0

DPM Petrovietnam Fer 6.8% 30,9 SIA Soco Intl Plc 3.6% 16,4

STB Sacombank 5.9% 27,0 PPC Pha Lai Thermal 3.2% 14,8

PVD Petrovietnam Dri 5.2% 23,8 OGC Ocean Group Jsc 2.8% 13,0

PMO Premier Oil Plc 4.1% 18,6 GMD Gemadept Corp 2.7% 12,2

GAM Gamuda Bhd 4.0% 18,2 HPG Hoa Phat Group 2.5% 11,4

CPF Charoen Pok-Nvdr 3.9% 17,8 HAG HAGL 2.2% 10,2

Date: 21 Feb 2014

Market Vectors Vietnam ETF

Total Net Assets US$457.2 m

Shares Outstanding 22,000,000

NAV/share US$20.78

Last Price (21-Feb) US$21.75

Premium/Discount 4.67%

Weekly key table


8/13

Top holdings: DB x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF


8


MSN Masan Group 15.0% 55,2 ITA Tan Tao Group 2.7% 9,8

VIC VINGROUP 14.2% 52,1 GMD Gemadept Corp 2.2% 8,0

HPG Hoa Phat Group 11.3% 41,4 PPC Pha Lai Thermal 2.0% 7,4

HAG HAGL 9.1% 33,3 VSH Vinh Son-Song 1.7% 6,1

PVD Petrovietnam Dri 9.0% 32,9 CSM South Rubber In. 1.6% 5,8

DPM Petroviet Fertlz 7.9% 28,9 KBC KinhBac City 1.6% 5,8

VCB Vietcombank 6.1% 22,4 DRC DaNang Rubber 1.4% 5,1

STB Sacombank 3.9% 14,3 PVT PVTrans Corp 1.2% 4,6

BVH Bao Viet Holdings 3.0% 10,9 DIG DIC Corp 1.1% 4,0

HSG Hoa Sen Group 2.7% 9,9 OGC Ocean Group Jsc 1.0% 3,6

Date: 18 Feb 2014

DB x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF


Shares Outstanding 13,016,397

NAV/share US$28.11

Last Price (20-Feb) US$27.91

Premium/Discount -0.73%

Weekly key table


9/13

Top holdings: VinaCapital fund


9


VNM Vinamilk 14.2% 111,0 Unlisted SEATH 30.2% 63,7

Unlisted Sofitel Metropole 8.2% 64,1 Unlisted Ba Thien IP 12.3% 26,0

HPG Hoa Phat Group 5.5% 43,0 PVD PV Drilling 7.3% 15,4

KDC Kinh Do Corp 5.4% 42,2 Unlisted VALC 5.5% 11,6

Unlisted AGPPS 5.1% 39,9 PVS PTSC 4.7% 9,9

EIB Eximbank 5.0% 39,1 HPG Hoa Phat Group 4.3% 9,1

DHG Hau Giang Phar 3.6% 28,1 CII CII 3.4% 7,2

Unlisted Century 21 3.0% 23,5 GAS Petro Vietnam GAS 3.3% 7,0

Unlisted Danang Resort 2.3% 18,0 VSC Viiconship 2.8% 5,9

Unlisted Dai Phuoc Lotus 1.8% 14,1 SJD Can Don Hydr. 2.8% 5,9

Date: 31 Jan 2014

VinaCapital Vietnam Opportunities Fund


Shares Outstanding (17 Feb) 246,751,193

NAV/share US$3.16

Last Price (31 Jan) US$2.36


Weekly key table

Vietnam Infrastructure Ltd

Total Net Assets US$210.9m

Shares Outstanding (06 Jan) 359,227,504

NAV/share US$0.59

Last Price (31 Jan) US$0.39



10/13


11/13

Major Foreign funds investing in Vietnam: EQUITY


11

Fund Name Fund Type Bloomberg CodeNAV

(US$ m)As of

DB x-trackers FTSE Vietnam ETF Exchange - traded fund XFVT SP 365.9 20-Feb

Market Vectors Vietnam ETF Exchange - traded fund VNM US 457.2 21-Feb

Vina Capital Vietnam Opportunity Fund Close - end fund VOF LN 781.7 31-Jan

Vietnam Infrastructure Ltd Close - end fund VNI LN 210.9 31-Jan

Vietnam Enterprise Inv'ts Ltd Close - end fund VIETENI KY 525.5 13-Feb

Vietnam Growth Fund Close - end fund VIETNGF KY 296.5 13-Feb

DWS Vietnam Fund Close - end fund DWSVIET KY 325.9 31-Jan

JF Vietnam Opportunities Fund Mutual fund JFVNOPP HK 127.8 27-Jan

Vietnam Holding Ltd Close - end fund VNH LN 124.7 14-Feb

PXP Vietnam Fund Close - end fund VNF LN 81.2 27-Jan

Weekly key table


12/13

Secondary bond market: Foreign investors net purchase (US$ m)


12

Weekly key table

(300)

(200)

(100)

-

100

200

300

400

(150)

(100)

(50)

-

50

100

1-Mar-13

15-Mar-13

29-Mar-13

12-Apr-13

3-May-13

17-May-13

31-May-13

14-Jun-13

28-Jun-13

12-Jul-13

26-Jul-13

9-Aug-13

23-Aug-13

6-Sep-13

20-Sep-13

4-Oct-13

18-Oct-13

1-Nov-13

15-Nov-13

29-Nov-13

13-Dec-13

27-Dec-13

10-Jan-14

24-Jan-14

7-Feb-14

21-Feb-14

Weekly Flow (LHS) Accomulated Net Flow (RHS) 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Weekly Flow (LHS))


13/13

DISCLAIMERS

The information, statements, predicts in this report including individual comments are based on reliablesources of information. The statements in this report based on detailed and careful analysis. Oursubjective opinions are appropriate in the given reporting period. Any opinions or judgments in the reportcan be changed without prior notif ication.

This report is to provide information and does not intend to advise readers to buy, sell or hold anysecurities. Mirae Asset Securities (MAS) will not be liable for all or any damage or event which isconsidered damages for the use of all or any information or comments of this report.

The report is a property of MAS and under copyright protection. Infringement of copy, change and reprintof the report without permission of MAS is illegal. MAS owns the copyright on the report.

13

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