14th August 2009

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2/142 Thunder Road Report - 14 August 2009

obvious rising population (about 230,000 per day globally), rising incomes in the emerging world,

constraint on arable land and increasingly volatile climactic conditions.

The next chart shows how the percentage of disposable income spent on food in the US (in total and for

food consumed at home) has fallen sharply. Total expenditure on food has fallen from c.25% in the 1930s

and late-1940s to 9.6% of disposable income in 2008. Food consumed at home has fallen from c.20%

down to 5.6% last year. It looks to me like these ratios are levelling out and my guess is that they are

going to start to increasing. Remember, when nancial sector stocks accounted for about 40% of total S&P

earnings in early 2007? That wasnt sustainable and I doubt that Americans spending only about 5% of

their disposable income on food consumed at home is either.

Percentage of disposable income spent on food in the US: 1929-2008

Source: USDA

Bill Doyle, President and CEO of fertiliser producer, Potash Corp. of Sasketchewan, was talking up the bull

case in a conference call following its Q209 results on 23 July 2009:

The pressure on the food supply is just enormousyou are going to see these same headlines on food

crisis appear once again. My guess is a year from now well be back in the food crisis, where people are

saying jeez, what happened this thing came back at us again. We thought it was over, well isnt over with

it is never been over with. And you are just going to have a lot of pressure on food supply, which means

youre going to have higher prices. You are going to have higher prices across the Ag commodity spectrum

the process, (which is) going to use more fertilizer. So, this is a long term story.

He would say that wouldnt he, but I agree with him. Until now, Ive had no exposure to food/agriculture

but Ive bought what is a medium-sized position for me using the remaining cash in my portfolio, switching

out of a bit of technology exposure and one of my junior gold explorers.

With food/agriculture, there are different ways of gaining exposure. Fertiliser and crop protection

(agrochemical) companies are obvious ways via the stock market. However, rightly or wrongly, Im

concerned about the sustainability of the current stock market rally, so Im opting for more direct exposure

to agricultural commodity prices via an ETF (exchange traded fund).

The hard part is getting the timing right on the individual commodities so Ive opted for some diversication.

Ive bought the Power Shares DB Agriculture Fund (ticker: DBA) which gives exposure to wheat, corn,

soybeans and sugar (rebalanced to 25% each every November). The two-year performance chart is shown

below. The recovery from the December low is c. 20%, i.e. much less than the recovery in the stock market

from its low back in March

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

1929

1933

1937

1941

1945

1949

1953

1957

1961

1965

1969

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993

1997

2001

2005

Total At Home

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Power Shares DB Agriculture Fund

Source: yahoonance.com

I like the fact that DBAs current exposures are:

B Sugar 36%: currently in a powerful bull market;

B Soybeans 26%: showing some positive signs

B Wheat 20%: close to bottoming?

B Corn 18%: close to bottoming?

Im hoping is that the bull market in sugar continues to drive DBA higher between now and November when

the rebalancing takes place. After that, soybeans, wheat and corn should take up the baton. Well thats the

plan!

The surge in the sugar price due to lower production in Brazil (worlds largest sugar cane producer), due

to too much rain, and India (worlds largest consumer), due to a drought, has been well documented. With

only another month to go in the Indian monsoon season, rainfall has been 29% below average so far. The

problems with sugar supply on a worldwide basis remain acute. Here is a Reuters report from earlier this

week:Some of Americas biggest food companies say the U.S. could virtually run out of sugar if the Obama

administration doesnt ease import restrictions amid soaring prices for the key commodity. In a letter

to Agriculture Secretary Thomas Vilsack, the big brands - including Kraft Foods Inc., General Mills Inc.,

Hershey Co. and Mars Inc. - bluntly raised the prospect of a severe shortage of sugar used in chocolate

bars, breakfast cereal, cookies, chewing gum and thousands of other products. The companies threatened

to jack up consumer prices and lay off workers if the Agriculture Department doesnt allow them to import

more tariff-free sugar.

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Sugar 1-year Soybeans 1-year

Source: timingcharts.com Source: timingcharts.com

The price of soybeans has also done fairly well rising about 35% from the low in late-2008 helped by strong

Chinese demand and problems in drought-ridden Argentina. The Chinese customs authority announced on

22 July 2009 that June soybean imports rose 31% year-on-year to 4.71m tonnes. Imports for the rst six

months were 28% higher at 22.09m tonnes. While the Chinese government has been holding auctions of

soybeans, it has sought prices above the level on international markets. This has led to few takers and a

question mark as to how serious its desire to sell really is?

Nogger is an independent commentator on the agriculture industry and a 30-year veteran as a shipper,

trader and broker (see Noggers Blog at www.nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com). Here is his blog entry for

21 July 2009:

The markets took a hit last Thursday, and are lower again today, on the back of the news that China was

to sell assorted quantities of corn, wheat and soybeans out of its strategic reserve. Does that mean that

China has more than enough stocks and is looking to ofoad a few million tonnes, or could there be another

explanationThey certainly seem to keep coming back for more US soybeans. Last week on the very

day China announced the sale of 500,000 MT (metric tonnes) of soybeans sending the market tumbling,

Chinese buyers actually were reported to have booked 636,200 MT themselves in the USDAs weekly export

sales reportThey are unlikely to nd a huge queue of buyers at asking prices $40-50 higher than current

US levelsIt makes China look better in the eyes of the WTO, rather than just being a buyer and hoarder

of grains they become a world player, supplying their needy Asian neighbours.

While coffee, cotton and cocoa have also been good performers of late, with prices up 35-55% from their

2008 lows, lets consider the laggards among the major crops, i.e. corn and wheat (see the price charts

below). I am expecting that we will see a reversal in corn and wheat prices in the near future although this

seems to be something of a contrarian view.
http://www.nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/http://www.nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/

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Wheat (Chicago) 1-year Corn 1-year

Source: timingcharts.com Source: timingcharts.com

Ive been watching the wheat price, in particular, as it has fallen back from US$6.75/bushel on 1 June 2009

to its current level in Chicago of US$4.90/bu on Friday. Obviously, the heady days when the price reached

US$13/bu in the 2007/08 season seem like a distant memory. Back then, world wheat stocks fell to c.120-

150m tonnes depending on whether you believe USDA (US Department of Agriculture) or the FAO (Food

& Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). In terms of the stocks to use (consumption) ratio, we

reached levels not seen for more than 30 years.

Wheat - stocks to use ratio

Source: Chris Meyer

The high prices back then incentivised farmers to plant wheat and apply fertiliser and, combined with good

weather, worldwide wheat production recovered from 616.7m tonnes in 2007/08 to 687.4m tonnes in

2008/09 according to USDA. Based on the latters data, world wheat stocks increased from 121.2m tonnes

at the end of the 2007/08 season to 167.4m tonnes at the end of the 2008/09 season. Although USDA

currently expects wheat production to fall by more than 20m tonnes in 2009/10, it is projecting an increase

in stocks at the end of the season. The general view is that the market is well supplied and thats why the

wheat price has been weak of late.

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World wheat estimates 2009/10

millions tonnes

Beginning stocks 169.50

Production 659.29

Consumption (645.23)

Ending stocks 183.56

Source: USDA

The current 2009/10 wheat season has been interesting because many of the big exporting regions/nations,

like the EU, US, Canada, Russia, Argentina and the Ukraine, have reported declining production due to

drought and the credit crunch. Furthermore, some of the estimates published by the closely-followed USDA

in recent months have been so obviously incorrect for wheat as to question, in some quarters, whether it

is incompetent (or something else)?

Source: Noggers Blog

For example, here is part of an unambiguous report titled Smallest Wheat Crop Since 1910 Forecasted For

Argentina from Meropress (the South American news agency) on 30 April 2009:

Argentina is forecasted to plant the smallest wheat crop on record because of drought and export restrictions,

according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange. Planting will fall as low as 3.7 million hectares this fall that

would be the smallest since the Exchange began recording such data in 1910This years planted area will

be 18.6% less than a year ago, said the Exchange.

Argentina has traditionally been a major wheat exporter, but exports have dwindled after two disastrous

harvests. In the 2008/09 season, USDA estimated that Argentina produced 8.40m tonnes of wheat down

from 18.00m tonnes in the previous year. In June 2009, USDA was still forecasting a 2.60m tonne increase

in this years harvest to 11.0m tonnes despite reports like the one above! The forecast was lowered to

9.50m tonnes in July and to 8.50m tonnes (still implying a marginal year-on-year increase) in the latest

data published on Wednesday.

Below is a table showing estimated world wheat production for the worlds largest exporting nations

according to USDA and a comparison with Noggers estimates.

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World wheat production and major exporters (mt)

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10E (USDA) 2009/10E (Nogger)

World 610.93 682.32 659.29 654.9

EU-27 120.24 151.64 136.29 136.2

US 55.82 68.03 59.43 59.0

Argentina 18.00 8.40 8.50 7.0Australia 13.84 21.50 23.00 23.0

Canada 20.05 28.61 22.50 22.0

Ukraine 13.90 25.90 19.50 19.5

Russia 49.40 63.70 55.50 57.0

Top 7 exporters 291.25 367.78 324.72 323.7

% of world prodn. 47.7% 53.9% 49.3% 49.4%

World exports 117.51 136.35 123.38 n/a

Top 7 % 81.3% 88.1% 85.8% n/a

Source: USDA, Nogger

Production from the worlds seven largest exporters is expected to be well down in 2009/10 44.4m tonnes

using Noggers estimates. These seven exporters typically account for over 80% of world exports in any

given year. It suggests to me that supply and demand could tighten up quite quickly if harvests disappoint

in any of the key consuming/importing nations.

China is not usually a large importer or exporter of wheat but, in terms of individual countries, it is (not

surprisingly) the worlds largest producer and consumer.

China wheat statistics (mt)

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10E (USDA) 2009/10E (Nogger)

Consumption 106.00 102.50 101.00 n/a

Production 109.30 112.50 114.50 115.0

Imports 0.05 0.35 0.30 n/a

Exports 2.84 0.75 1.50 n/a


The current crop got off to a very poor start with severe drought affecting the major wheat growing areas

in Henan, Shandong, Anhui and Hebai during January and early February this year. The problem was so

severe that the Chinese government reportedly sent 279,000 experts and technical personnel to the

wheat-growing regions and red thousands of shells containing silver iodide pellets into the atmosphere.

The rains came towards the end of February and the crop was reported to be in good condition by April.

The two pieces of information which piqued my interest were, rstly, the reports in June that heavy storms

delayed some of the harvesting and had adversely affected some of the crop in Shandong and Hebei,

although Henan, the most important region, seemed to fare much better. As China Economic Net reported

on 11 June 2009:

China is racing extreme weather including hail, heavy rain and strong winds to harvest wheat.

By 22 June 2009, Chinas Ministry of Agriculture reported that almost all the crop (over 90%) had been

successfully harvested. Hmmm maybe.

The second piece of information was the data on Chinese wheat imports in May and June. May importswere 70,968 tonnes which was a 103% increase on the previous months while the June gure was 192,905

tonnes. Chinese imports in H109 have already matched USDAs 0.3m estimate for 2009, although the

numbers are obviously small at this stage. The key question for me is whether the Chinese crop was really

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as good as we have been led to believe or whether imports will have to remain strong. If they do, it will

have a benecial impact on the wheat price.

Lets get back to USDA (loveable chumps I think is Noggers expression) and its strange forecasts and this

time focus on its upgrade to Indian wheat production published this week. Nogger highlighted in his blog

entry Todays USDA Faux Pas in which he noted:

Have you spotted it yet? You might have heard that theres a drought on in India. Maybe you are aware

that they had their worst monsoon rains in 83 years during June?...Here around 60% of the agricultural

land is exclusively rain-fed, the remaining 40% relies on irrigation from reservoirs normally lled with

abundant monsoon rains. The sugar market has been hitting regular daily highs on the back of this drought,

so what does this mean for wheat production potential in the worlds second largest producer for the season

ahead? Thats right its increased by 3 MMT (million metric tonnes) from last month to an all-time high of

80.58 MMT!

India wheat statistics (mt)

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10E (USDA) 2009/10E (Nogger)

Consumption 76.35 70.77 76.88 n/a

Production 75.81 78.60 80.58 77.6

Imports 1.89 0.01 0.00 n/a

Exports 0.05 0.20 0.20 n/a


From digging around, Id like USDA to explain why the Indian government announced in early July that it

would permit exports of 900,000 tonnes of wheat and 650,000 tonnes of wheat products by March 2010,

only to reverse this decision two weeks later due to concerns about the monsoon?

The next chart from Texas AgriLife Extension Economist, Mark Welch, shows that in seasonal terms buying

exposure to wheat in mid-August has usually been a reasonable bet over the last ve and ten years:

Source: Texas AgriLife

A medium-term concern regarding the supply of wheat is the potential spread of the Ug99 fungus (it

originated in Uganda in 1999) known as stem rust. The fungus forms reddish brown akes on the plant

stalks and deprives the plant of nutrients. The fungus is carried by the wind but has so far only been

found in Africa and the Middle East although the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center

has estimated that 19% of world production could be in danger. There are 17 international research

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organisations collaborating on the development of resistant wheat varieties. In the meantime, if it reaches

the bread baskets of North America, Asia and Central Europe, we are in trouble.

Finishing on a lighter note, I like Noggers blog and he has a very amusing donate button:

Feeling guilty and embarrassed about accessing all this quality free information? Of course you are, and

I dont blame you, nobody likes a freeloading cheapskate. Why not ease your burden by hitting Donate

to buy Nogger a beer via PayPal? Youll feel better, Ill feel better, and the puppy will feel better. If youreIcelandic Ill settle for a half and a bag of nuts.

I was talking about the collapse of the Icelandic currency in the last Thunder Road a poster child for the

UK and US at some point? Anyway, Im going to buy Nogger a beer as he sounds like a good bloke

US Treasury Bonds emerging Ponzi scheme

A key theme of Thunder Road reports is that we are approaching a dollar crisis and that this will be brought

on by investors refusing to continually pour more good money after bad into buying US Treasury bonds

and nancing gargantuan US federal decits. This was the lesson from the collapse of the London Gold Pool

in 1968 which led to the end of the (quasi) gold standard and massive devaluation of the US dollar gold

went from being xed at US$35/oz to its interim high of US$195/oz in 1974.

The out-of-control spending of the US Federal Government continues with Geithner, the Treasury Secretary,

seeking yet another increase in what is currently a US$12.1trn debt limit.

It is critically important that Congress act before the limit is reached so that citizens and investors here

and around the world can remain condent that the United States will always meet its obligations,

Meet its obligations in increasingly worthless paper? I doubt they are raising their glasses to him in Beijing

more likely Chinese ofcials are buying more gold, copper, soybeans and wheat, etc.

A week ago, there was a buzz around nancial websites after Chris Martenson (article here) uncovered how

the demand for US Treasury bonds might not be as robust as the authorities would like us to believe. On

30 July 2009, the US Treasury announced the results of an auction of US$28.0bn of 7-year US Treasury

Notes. According to the release (here) bids of US$73.6bn were received giving a bid-to-cover ratio of

2.63. Of the US$28.0bn of notes sold, US$10.0bn went to the Primary Dealers. Overall, the Primary Dealers

(basically 18 of the worlds largest banks, including the US governments primary agents, GS and JPM),

who are obliged to bid in these auctions, accounted for US$48.0bn, or 65.2%, of all bids tendered. The full

details of this auction can be seen here but Chris scanned in the top part of the announcement highlighting

the all-important CUSIP number, i.e. identifying the bonds specically sold in this auction.

Source: Chris Martenson
http://www.chrismartenson.com/fed-buys-last-weeks-treasury-auction/23880http://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanne/2009/R_20090730_1.pdfhttp://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanne/2009/R_20090730_1.pdfhttp://www.chrismartenson.com/fed-buys-last-weeks-treasury-auction/23880

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Lets move forward just seven days to 6 August 2009 and the details of the Federal Reserves Permanent

OMO (open market operations) on that day. A Permanent OMO is an outright purchase or sale of US

Treasury securities from the banking system (i.e. the Primary Dealers) for the Feds own balance sheet. On

6 August, the Fed bought US$7.0bn of long-dated (7 to 10-year) Treasuries:


Drilling down into the details of this purchase, Chris showed how US$4.7bn of the purchase were the same

Treasuries which had only been issued a week earlier as identied by the CUSIP number.


As he commented:

Good grief! Just last week when the auction results were announced it was trumpeted to great fanfare that

there was more than sufcient bid-to-cover, strong demand and all the rest. And now it turns out that

47% (!) of the bonds that were taken by the primary dealers in that auction have been quietly bought by

the Fed and permanently secreted to its balance sheet. They didnt even wait a full week! A more honest

and open approach would have been for the Fed to simply buy them outright at the auction but this way,

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using primary dealers and POMOs and all these other extra steps the basic fact that the Fed is openly

monetizing US government debt is effectively hidden from a not-too-terribly inquisitive US press and

public. The speed of the shell game is accelerating.

Zero Hedge made a poignant remark:

The question is did the Fed implicitly tell the primary dealers they are merely holding the treasuries for a

ip, and that it would acquire them immediately.

It also makes me question just how serious the other US$48.0bn of tendered but not accepted bids from the

Primary Dealers really were if the latter are in on the scam. Strip out the US$4.8bn of bonds immediately

monetised and US$38.0bn of tendered but unaccepted bids from the Primary Dealers and the bid-to-cover

ratio suddenly drops to 1.10. Hey presto, Washington we have a problem.

The timing of this rapid monetisation of longer-dated Treasuries was interesting for two reasons. Firstly,

as I noted in the last Thunder Road Report, there had been a disappointing auction of US$39.0bn 5-year

Treasury Notes only the day before this one (on 29 July 2009) when the bid-to-cover ratio was only 1.92.

The next day, with the bid-to-cover ratio rising to 2.63 everything looked rosy again. Here is how CNBC

reported the 30 July 2009 auction on its website:

The bond market got a bit of relief Thursday, as a $28 billion auction of seven-year notes went somewhat

better than expected. The auction saw a yield of 3.369 percent on a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.63 as the price

continues to increase for the governments massive debtload. The bond market this week already has

weathered two tepid auctions, for two- and ve-year notes. With todays auction of $28 billion in seven-

year notes sending investors even further out on the yield curve, there was little optimism that things

would change.

Secondly, the point about sending investors even further out on the yield curve, i.e. selling them longer-

dated bonds, is important. Lets look at the change in holdings of short-dated (Treasury Bills, i.e. less

than one year maturity) versus longer-dated (Notes and Bonds, i.e. more than one year maturity) of USTreasury Securities by foreign governments from July 2008 to May 2009 (the most recent data).

Foreign central bank holdings of US Treasury Securities (US$bn)

July 2008 May 2009

Treasury Bills 232.5 586.2

T-Bonds & Notes 1,694.4 1,701.3

Total 1,926.9 2,287.5

Source: US Treasury

While the overall holdings have increased by c.US$350bn, there has been a marked change in the balance

of maturities. Foreign governments have essentially refused to lend any more money to the US on a longer

term basis although they are still happy to lend money on a short-term basis. This is clearly the behaviour

of creditors who sense bankruptcy/ination risk. If nobody wants to buy your long-term debt, then the

game will soon be up.

What Im also wondering is whether there is a link between the Chinese delegation travelling to Washington

(what was said about the decit behind closed doors?) the same week as the bond auctions described

above and signs that the man overseeing US government nances is starting to feel the heat? Remember

the Wall Street Journal story about the unusual meeting between Geithner and US regulators on the Friday

(31 July 2009) of that week. The online WSJ reported on :

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner blasted top U.S. nancial regulators in an expletive-laced critique

last Friday as frustration grows over the Obama administrations faltering plan to overhaul U.S. nancial

regulation, according to people familiar with the meetingAmong those gathered in the Treasury conference

room were Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Mary

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Schapiro and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair. Fridays roughly hourlong meeting was

described as unusual, not only because of Mr. Geithners repeated use of obscenities, but because of the

aggressive posture he took with ofcials from federal agencies generally considered independent of the

White House. Mr. Geithner reminded attendees that the administration and Congress set policy, not the

regulatory agencies.

Mr. Geithner, without singling out ofcials, raised concerns about regulators who questioned the wisdom of

giving the Federal Reserve more power to oversee the nancial system. Ms. Schapiro and Ms. Bair, among

others, have argued that more authority should be shared among a council of regulators.

Lets continue the ne double act of Chris Martenson (I think Im going to subscribe to his paid service)

and Zero Hedge and look at another chart published by the former. This shows the Dow Jones Industrial

Average since 1 January 2009 above the chart of the total Permanent OMOs (both Treasury and Agency

securities, e.g. Fannie and Freddie). Just to clarify, this is the Federal Reserve creating money and buying

securities off the banking system in exchange for cash.

Dow Jones Industrial Average and Fed POMO activity


This cash increases the reserves of the banks which can either lend the money or put it some other use

like the stock market maybe?

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The goal, we surmise, is simply to get the stock market to move upwards. This is not an unthinkable idea

to me because, frankly, it is exactly the prescription I would write for an economy as dependent on rising

asset prices as is the United States. If a rising stock market helps to get people out buying and spending

again then it is a worthy goal in many a policy-makers mind, I am sure.

After all, there is a close link between consumer condence and the stock market, especially in the US,

which has more of an equity culture than the UK.

Its not all gloom, however, and at least the July 2009 US employment report from last Friday was better-

than-expected on a seasonally adjusted basis 247,000 job losses versus consensus expectations of

320,000 (following a 467,000 gure in June). The irony for me was that if you try to calculate the underlying

number, excluding the most obvious US government manipulations, it was even better than reported.

Two Thunder Roads ago, I showed how using John Williams (shadowstats.com) detailed analysis of the

June numbers, a better estimation of the number of job losses was 698,000 compared with the headline

gure of 467,000 adjusting for the concurrent seasonal factor bias (CSFB) and birth/death model. Making

the same adjustments to the July data, the underlying number might have been close to 145,000.

US non-farm payrolls - estimated underlying change in unemployment in 2009

(,000s) April May June July

Headline reported 504 322 467 247

CSFB (48) 89 46 (134)

Birth/death 226 220 185 32

Underlying change 682 631 698 145

Source: BLS, shadowstats.com

We know that the payrolls data is low quality, based on sampling, and Obama needed some good news,

so it could have been somewhat fabricated, I dont know. Certainly, the disruptions to the auto industry

played havoc with the normal phasing of production shutdowns this year. It is also worth remembering that

the non-seasonally adjusted reduction in non-farm payrolls in July was 1.333m compared with 1.401m last

July, which was hardly an improvement.

f we give the BLS the benet of the doubt on the July data I also have an explanation for such a good

number. Weve just been through a quarterly earnings season where the majority of companies exceeded

consensus expectations for earnings although the dismal trend in sales revenue was as bad as feared.

Hence the realisation that the corporate sector did a surprisingly good job of cutting jobs in order to beat

numbers for the quarter. I think its possible that companies are now holding back on layoffs to see if sales

begin to recover, given all the talk of green shoots. If they dont, I expect that job losses will pick up again

later this quarter.

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14/14

Author: I started work the month before the stock market crash in 1987. Ive worked mainly as an analyst

covering the Metals & Mining, Oil & Gas and Chemicals industries for a number of brokers and banks

including S.G. Warburg (now UBS), Credit Lyonnais, JP Morgan Chase, Schroders (became Citibank) and,

latterly, at the soon to be mighty Redburn Partners.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this report are my own and are for information only. It is not intendedas an offer, invitation, or solicitation to buy or sell any of the securities or assets described herein. I do not

accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document or

its contents. Please consult a qualied nancial advisor before making investments. The information in this

report is believed to be reliable , but I do not make any representations as to its accuracy or completeness.

I may have long or short positions in companies mentioned in this report.

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