Can United States and Russia be friends?

Ilya Ponomarev, Russian State Duma

Free Russia Foundation

Tufts University, April 2015

Russians about democracy

• 49% say Russia is democracy• Many problems recognized:

• Just 15% say they are protected by law (plus 25% - “somehow protected”)

• Just 24% feel secure from the state• Why problems with democracy?

• 37% - such thing do not exist• 30% - people are not ready• 25% - authoritarian leadership• 17% - democracy is bad for Russia• 11% - weak opposition

• 71% value “order” over democracy• Only 4% worried by limitation of

civil rights• For Russians most important

human right is the right for decent life• And most important value is social

justice• Just 14% link democracy with

elections• 19% - with rule of law

Russians about United States

• Only 43% think US is democracy• Strong anti-imperialist feelings

• Most pro-American sentiment always was within Putin and United Russia supporters

• Despite anti-Americanism in the media people think our relationship is better than is seems

Russians about their government• 80% think government acts in its

own interests• 52% hate politics• 40% feel government in Russia is

strong• 64% are against street protests• For whose benefit Putin is working

for:• 46% Security forces• 38% large corporations and oligarchs• 33% state bureaucracy• …• 12% common people

• Putin’s main achievements:• 51% restore national dignity• 27% stop Russia from collapse• 25% increase wages• 25% stop war in Chechnya

• Putin’s main failures:• 35% ensure social justice, support

common people• 24% stop economic degradation• 24% enforce rule of law

What country is Russia not

• Russia is not Asia• Religion is Western• Family values are Western• Lifestyle is Western• Language and alphabet is

Western• Ethnicity is Western

• Russia is also not Europe• No developed civil society• Lower appreciation of

human life• Strategic (societal) values

placed above individual comfort, safety and prosperity

• Way more dynamic and entrepreneurial society

What country is Russia

• Russia is a lot like America• Melting pot• Individualistic• Entrepreneurial• People hate and distrust

the state• Orthodox religion labor

ethics is closer to protestant than to catholic

• Global, mission-oriented• But:

• Way more urban – way more fragmented and people alienated

• Capitalism and political theories of 200 years past

• More liberated lifestyle• Uncommitted elites

compensating themselves for Soviet era fears

Result: Russians about

Ukrainian conflict• Crimea was always Russian, so it is

fair to return it• If Putin would not return Crimea, it

would have been war like in Donbass• NATO could have been in Sevastopol

already• We are not at war with Ukraine, we

are at war with America in Ukraine• It is continuation on WWII – Gorbachev

betrayed what our grandfathers did; Putin is cleaning up the damage

• Ukrainians are zombified by American propaganda, so they need to be liberated• There is no visible intention to “conquer”

Ukraine• Help Ukrainians, not Russians in Ukraine

• Most likely there are Russian troops in Ukraine, but we should not admit it, because our intentions are good• Malaysian airplane was shot down by

Ukraine; or it was Western provocation, simply because we are good and cannot kill innocent people

• We are the peacemakers, and West had always been the warmonger, and everybody knows it

Why after twenty post-Soviet years

Russia is back to authoritarianism

• Elites did not change from Soviet times• No lustration happened in 1991• Some generational changes (Communist party ->

Komsomol)• KGB officers at command since Putin’s return

• No “genetic authoritarianism” in Russians• Individualism and skepticism over government• Nation’s mission – liberating our neighbors• USSR was a melting pot, destroying Russian ethnicity• Medvedev – proof of parliamentary concept

• Democratic values are compromised in the eyes of common people• Privatization seen as unfair and private property is

not legitimized• Entrepreneurs are appreciated, “businessmen” are not

• Media wars highlighted private interest behind every single public development project• Best example is Skolkovo initiative

• Western living standards have wide appeal, but political practices are compromised and seen unfair to Russian

• Immediate concerns always prevailed over the long-term benefits• One example – presidential elections in 1996

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What did go wrong between us?

• The West decided against “Marshall plan” after collapse of the Soviet Union

• The West consciously closed eyes on undemocratic developments of 1993 and 1996

• The West excluded Russia from organizations like NATO and limited political cooperation with European Union• Old time ideas of “spheres of

influence” are publicly condemned but actually honored

• Western companies in Russia are in front lines of praising our leadership in every wrongdoing happens to support their businesses

• Current sanctions are well justified, but wrongly implemented and counter-productive

• Both Russian elites and Russian people feel that the West is selfish and exploits Russian weaknesses in its favor

What can be done• Abandon attempts to influence

the situation within Russia• Recognition of a long-term

mutual interest• Civilizational alliance of Northern

Hemisphere• Old Russian dream of Third Rome

• Maximum transparency at people’s level – free travel

• Creation of conditions to incubate new elites for Russia• Work with diaspora• Visa relaxations• Political activists travels

• Pressure on existing corrupt Russian elites• Honor your own legislation!

• Let’s be consistent, honest and strategic