Ellie Cohen and Point Blue StaffJoint LCC- SWCSC WorkshopOctober 27, 2016

1.5C- To Be or Not to Be?Nature-Based Solutions to Secure our Future

Photo: Cohen

• On track for 5 degrees C warming this century--

Impending tipping point for the future of life on our planetExceeding 4 of 9 ‘planetary boundaries’

• Steffen et al, SCIENCE, Jan 2015, Planetary Boundaries• Natl Acad. of Sci., Abrupt Climate Change Dec 2013• Barnosky et al, NATURE June 2012

Image Cheng (Lily) Li.

• Climate change• Species extinction• Habitat loss (land-use changes)• Fertilizers (altered

biogeochemical cycles)

August 2016 – ties July as hottest month ever recorded

Nutrients

NONutrients

Blob overshadowed El Nino; driving drought>90% of warming in ocean; 200m deep

http://www.nanoos.org/resources/anomalies_workshop/workshop2.phpLong et al Biogeochemical Cycles Feb 2016

Jacox et al . Geophysical Research Letters, July 2016IUCN- Explaining Ocean Warming Sept 2016

aters hold less oxygen; mix less into depths;

Ocean “deoxygenation” widespread by 2030’s with BAU GHGs

Triple Threat: Warming, acidification & oxygen loss Long et al Biogeochemical Cycles Feb 2016

Credit: Matthew Long, NCAR

Nature Impacts

We are totally reliant on nature

www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.aspxdatabank.worldbank.org

•Climate•Flood•Disease•Water quality•Recreational•Educational•Spiritual

•Freshwater, clean air•Food, fisheries•Wood, fiber, fuel

Est value= 2x global GNP or $72 trillion in 2012

Ecosystem Services or Nature’s Benefits

Paris Climate Agreement - Dec. 2015Hold increase in global avg. temp. below 2°C (1.5); includes nature-based solutions

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changehttp://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf

www.pointblue.org/parisagreementecosystems

…importance of ensuringintegrity of all ecosystems, including oceans….

…take action to conserve sinks of greenhouse gases…

…Build resilience through sustainable management of natural resources.

Nature-Based Solutions- New Policies

From LGC, TNC, CalCAN

CA--SB 379 (Jackson): Requires cities and counties to include climate adaptation in their general plans –including identification of natural infrastructure actions.

CA--AB 1482 (Gordon): Requires all state agencies to use the climate adaptation strategy to inform planning decisions --includes natural infrastructure.

Sept 2016: $105 million in funding for climate smart agriculture programs for fiscal year 2016-17 including Healthy Soils Initiative

President Obama Policy Guidance Oct 7 2015: directs all federal agencies to incorporate natural infrastructure & ecosystem services into planning and decision making.

“Source watersheds are now defined asintegral components of CA water infrastructure”

Meadows, Streams, Upland VegetationNow Eligible For Billions in Public Works $

Landmark CA Law– AB 2480 -- Sept 27 2016

Extension of CA Climate LawSB32 (Pavley)– 40% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels by 2030

• Now at 440 MMT/yr

• With current policies

375 MMT/yr

• By 2030 260 MMT/yr

http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/08/27/more-electric-cars-more-solar-power-expected-as-state-struggles-to-reach-tough-new-climate-standards/

Climate change tool box…

Renewable Clean Energy

Building Energy Efficiency

Mass TransitVehicle Miles

Traveled

Tara G. Martin, James E. M. Watson. Intact ecosystems provide best defence against climate change. Nature Climate Change, 2016; 6 (2): 122 DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2918

…must include nature-based solutions for nature’s benefits, incl.‘negative emissions’

Water Use Efficiency

Climate-Smart Conservation Principles1. Focus on future conditions, not past; plan ahead to

reduce risks and enhance resilience

2. Design actions in watershed/ecosystem/biosphere context across multiple scales in time and space

3. Employ flexible, adaptive approaches for timely response to continual change

4. Prioritize actions for multiple benefits across a range of scenarios to nature and people

5. Collaborate & communicate across sectors for timely, long term solutions

6. Practice the TEN% Rule: Test and Experiment Now!

Adapted from: NWF Climate Smart Conservation Adaptation Principles 2011; Draft Principles for CA Resources Agency Adaptation Update 2012; CSIRO’s Climate change impacts on Australia's biodiversity conservation & protected areas, Sept 2012 Update

Prioritize actions for multiple benefits-Protect, restore & accelerate nature’s benefits

LIFE on EARTHBiosphere

CARBON

HUMAN COMMUNITIES

ecohen@pointblue.org

Duffy et al PNAS May 2016Atwood, et al. Predators - blue carbon ecosystems. Nature Climate Change, 2015Ballard, et al. Biological Conservation 2012

Restore rangelands- 50% of CAAccelerate NbS: prescribed grazing, compost application

50 m acres @ avg. 1MT CO2e/acre = offset >10% of CA emissions/year == residential/commercial emissionshttp://www.carboncycle.org/marin-carbon-project/

Partner Biologists

Manage forests for resilience, waterAccelerate NbS: allow severe fireGabrielle Boisramé, Sally Thompson, Brandon Collins, Scott Stephens. Managed Wildfire Effects on Forest Resilience and Water in the Sierra Nevada. Ecosystems, 2016; DOI: 10.1007/s10021-016-0048-1

Restore mountain meadowsAccelerate NbS: Beaver Dam Analogues

The Nature ConservancyUC Davis

US Forest ServicePoint Blue Conservation Science

Store carbon (30,000 acres = 2 m tons CO2e), recharge aquifers, sustain wildlife, other benefits Norton et al. 2011 Point Blue - unpublished

Need standard METRICS to SCALE UP: Rangeland Monitoring Network

Eco

logi

cal f

unct

ion

Soil Dynamic Properties

Water Infiltration

Bulk Density

Organic Soil Carbon

Vegetation

Species composition

Cover

BirdsAbundance

Diversity

Grazing Management

Number of Animals

Timing

Frequency and Duration

http://www.pointblue.org/our-science-and-services/conservation-science/working-lands/rangeland-monitoring-network/

Lewis et al. 2015,~3 miles over 45 yrs = Marin Co. reduction goals of ~84,000 T CO2e by 2020Matzek et al. 2015, Seavy et al.2009; Gardali et al. 2006, Golet et al.2008

Restore Riparian HabitatAccelerate NbS: climate-smart planting pallet

• Filters out pollutants• Recharges groundwater• Captures carbon • Supports birds, fish, other wildlife• Protects soil• Increases property values,

recreation

Preliminary avg annual carbon sequestration rates over 50 yrs

Combined scenario: restoration and succession in biomass looks promising

Dybala, et al. In process

Sears Point: Engineered for multi benefits- e.g., marsh mounds to capture sediment, grow tidal marsh faster

Restore tidal marshAccelerate NbS: marsh mounds, layer sediment

Seal Beach NWR: apply layer of fill or sediment to slow SLR

Engage the community: STRAW

+

Track, Manage Water in Near Real-Time Accelerate NbS: optimize water mgmt. to achieve multiple benefits – guide where & when put water

Groundwater recharge potential

Our Coast Our Future- SLR, storm surge online toolAccelerate NbS: adaptation planning and action

Partners:• USGS• NOAA• POINT BLUE• NPS

CA Coastline

www.pointblue.org/ocof

Google

prioritize actions for a range of future scenarios

Restore seagrass: Accelerate NbS--sequester C, reduce acidification impacts, increase habitat, slow wave action

Hejnowicz et al Frontiers in Marine Science 2015Travathan-Tackett et al Ecology 2015First National Report on Living Shorelines Institutional Barriers Released 2015 www.estuaries.org

http://baynature.org/article/subtleties-of-the-subtidal/

http://www.habitat.noaa.gov/coastalcarbonsequestration.html

Recolonize Sea Otters and restore kelp forests Accelerate NbS: sequester C, reduce OA impacts, other benefits

Hughes et al PNAS 2013Wilmers et al Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 2012

Prey on sea urchins

Urban Green Infrastructure – resilience, benefitsAccelerate: rain gardens, permeable streets, green alleys

Trust for Public Land

Natural Resource Managers

ScientistsGovernment & Regulators

HumanCommunities

20th century silo mindset: it’s all about me!

21st century climate-smart mindset: We are all in this together!

Key Tool: Scenario Planning

Brings together diverse stakeholders to address climate change in an uncertain future

Scenario PlanningSee also: http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/tools/scenario-planning/index_html

Moore, Sara S.; E. Seavy, Nathaniel; Gerhart, Matt. Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation—A Guidance for Resource Managers. Point Blue Conservation Science & California Coastal Conservancy 2013.

Apply the 10% Rule Every Day

T = Test &

E = Experiment

N = Now

Ok be 80% performer on agency requirements!!

No more ‘business as usual’

- Reverse greenhouse gas emissions,

- Transition to clean, efficient and equitable energy and water-use economy, and,

- Make nature-based, multi-benefit approaches an equal priority-- required for success.

“We have to wake up to the fierce urgency of the now”Jim Yong Kim on Climate ChangePresident, The World Bank

What do LCC’s need to do?• Come out of the closet: climate change is real

and happening now

• Stop wasting time: vulnerability studies? LCD projects? Wait until published?

• Conduct scenario planning and work with watershed communities to catalyze action now

• Invest in demonstration projects and scale up with standardized metrics; monitoring

• Prioritize and decide what we aren’t going to do

What will each of us start doing differently today?

Be bold, take risks, innovate and act now to accelerate

nature’s benefits for wildlife & people

4-5

feet

Add

ition

al 6

ft We have choices!

Future Redwood City shoreline?

Collaborative Water Management Works for Wildlife, Groundwater & Growers

Sept 2020

Major Investments in Nature-based Solutions Pay Off!

Water flowing, aquifers replenished and wildlife thriving despite extensive drought August, 2030

• baylandsgoals.org/science-update-2015/• mavensnotebook.com/2015/07/29/tidal-marshes-an

climate-change/ Callaway, 2015

West-wide Coastal Restoration Success!Carbon captured, communities healthier, wildlife increased, and

infrastructure protected despite rising seas Sept 2046

LCC’s Awarded Presidential Medal of Freedom for Climate Leadership

November 2050

Because of our collaborative climate-smart conservation

actions today, healthy ecosystems will sustain thriving wildlife & human communities well into the

future…

ecohen@pointblue.org

http://www.pointblue.org/blog/sciencenews

Thank You!Anonymous (2)11th Hour Fund

Audubon California Bay Area Ecosystems Climate Change Consortium

S.D. Bechtel, Jr. FoundationBernice Barbour Foundation

Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Land Management

California Coastal ConservancyCalifornia Department of Fish and Game

California Department of Water ResourcesCalifornia Bay Delta Authority

California Landscape Conservation CooperativeCalifornia State Parks

Central Valley Joint VentureFaucett Catalyst FoundationRichard Grand Foundation

Marin Community FoundationGiles Mead Foundation

Moore Family FoundationDavid and Lucile Packard Foundation

National Park ServiceNational Science Foundation

NOAA National Marine SanctuariesNatural Resource Conservation Service

Resources Legacy Fund FoundationSF State University

San Francisco Bay Joint VentureThe Nature Conservancy

U.S. Fish and Wildlife ServiceUSDA Forest ServiceUS Geological Survey

USDA Natural Resources Conservation Serviceand Point Blue Board, Members and Staff

Other ResourcesCommunity Resilience Building Workshop GuideAdam Whelchel

Scenario Planning for Climate Change Adaptation—A Guidance for Resource Managers. Point Blue Conservation Science & California Coastal Conservancy Moore et al 2013.

World Conservation Congress (Sept 2016)https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLnr53rBAcZifnVao1du4SYuVOZv0s_kU-

https://portals.iucn.org/library/node/46191Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-3nobLGK02A

Natural Infrastructure– FEMA definitionNatural infrastructure (or nature-based) is the use of engineered features and restored natural features to mimic or restore natural processes that are created by human design.

Examples include, but are not limited to, restored habitat for fish and wildlife, a constructed impounded wetland, or a beach and dune system site specifically engineered for coastal storm damage reduction.

Nature-based approaches can be used in combination with or instead of new, existing, or other similar measures. A nature-based approach could also substitute for proposed actions, or could be used in combination with a proposed action.

(Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) --http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/101759)

Will 2016 set new record?August 2016 – ties July as hottest month ever recorded