ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

SECURITY (SES) OF VARIOUS ENERGY SOURCES AT HOUSEHOLD LEVEL IN INDIA

Cdr Kapil Narula

Instructor, Faculty of Electronics and Communication Engineering, Indian Naval Academy, Ezhimala,

Dist Kannur, Kerala – 670310 (India) 

PhD Research Scholar,Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research,

Gen. A.K. Vaidya Marg, Goregaon (E), Mumbai - 400 065 (India)

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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• Introduction

• Model and methodology

• Populating ‘Scores’ and ‘Weights’

• Results – Dimensional Index and SES Index

• Sensitivity analysis

• Conclusion

Contents

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Introduction

• Energy is pre-requisite for development

• Energy security and sustainability is a complex multidimensional issue

• Sufficient supply, clean energy, affordable cost

• Sustainability in entire energy chain: supply, transformation, demand

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Aim

• To design a multi-criteria analysis framework for comparative assessment of SES using quantitative indicators and to assess the SES of different energy sources at household level in India

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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SES defined

• We define ‘Sustainable Energy Security’ (SES) as “provisioning of uninterrupted energy services in an affordable, equitable, efficient and environmentally benign manner”.

• Four dimensions – Availability, Affordability, Acceptability, Efficiency

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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ModelCode Energy Source, E(k)

C Coal/coke/charcoalFW Firewood and chipsDC Dung cakeLPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas

K KeroseneL Electricity

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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IndicatorsDimension Name Indicator Components Unit

Physical Availability (Access and

consumption)

AVL1 % of HH using ___as primary energy source

80 % weight: cook/water heating 20 % weight: lighting

%

AVL2 Average qty of energy (includes cooking and lighting) consumed

per month per capita

Qty of energy * energy content per unit of energy

source

Unit * (MJ/unit)

= MJ

Affordability AFF1 Monthly capital cost of end use device for cooking a

Capital cost of cook stove/Life of stove

Rs/month

AFF2 Cost of fuel purchase per month for meeting requirement of

cooking a

Average unit price of energy consumed per month}

*Specific fuel consumption * cooking work reqd per HH

per month

Rs per HH per month

Environmental Acceptability

ACP1 CO emissions from end use device for cooking

CO emissions from cook stove using ___ energy source

mg/m3

ACP2 PM emissions from end use device for cooking

PM emissions from cook stove using ___ energy source

mg/mg3

Efficiency EFF Efficiency of end use device for cooking b

(Energy output/energy input) * 100

%

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Decision matrix

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Methodology

Scores

• Raw Values (Separate for Rural and urban)• Min-Max scaling• Scale Inversion

Weights

•Analytical Hierarchal Process (AHP)

Index

•Dimensional Index

•SES Index

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Pair-wise comparison for weights

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Access to fuel

Energy Consumption

Capital Cost

Monthly fuel Cost

CO emissions

PM emissions

Efficiency of end use

1Access to fuel 1 1/3 3 1/3 5 5 7

2Energy

Consumption3 1 5 1 7 7 9

3Capital Cost 1/3 1/5 1 1/5 3 3 5

4Monthly fuel Cost 3 1 5 1 7 7 9

5CO emissions 0.2 0.14 0.33 0.14 1 1 3

6PM emissions 0.2 0.14 0.33 0.14 1 1 3

7Efficiency of end

use 0.14 0.11 0.20 0.11 0.33 0.33 1

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Calculations

AVL 1 AVL 2 AFF 1 AFF 2 ACP 1 ACP 2 EFFR U R U C R U C C C

C 0.64% 1.92% 3.92 8.12 8.33 147.83 180.06 42 0.02 23.2%FW 61.04% 14.00% 318.09 78.03 0.00 63.75 197.96 23 1.8 15.7%DC 5.04% 1.04% 87.36 19.08 0.00 41.82 140.74 21 13 11.1%LPG 9.20% 51.60% 13.75 83.63 12.50 276.09 273.03 4 0.01 60.4%

K 7.32% 6.14% 19.54 15.31 9.72 193.32 247.26 8 0.02 50.4%L 13.22% 19.04% 28.53 87.36 16.67 249.56 302.21 0 0 71.3%

AVL 1 AVL 2AFF

1 AFF 2ACP

1 ACP 2 EFFR U R U C R U C C C

C 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.55 0.76 0.00 1.00 0.25FW 1.00 0.26 1.00 0.88 1.00 0.91 0.65 0.45 0.86 0.00DC 0.07 0.00 0.27 0.14 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.22LPG 0.14 1.00 0.03 0.95 0.25 0.00 0.18 0.90 1.00 0.61

K 0.11 0.10 0.05 0.09 0.42 0.35 0.34 0.81 1.00 0.48L 0.21 0.36 0.08 1.00 0.00 0.11 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Dimension Weights

Component Weights

AVL 47.06% AVL 1 0.132 AVL 2 0.338

AFF 41.01% AFF 1 0.072 AFF 2 0.338

ACP 8.82% ACP 1 0.044EFF 3.11% ACP 2 0.044

EFF 0.031

Scores WeightsX = Index

Raw Values

Min-max scaling

Inversion

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Results - DI and SES Index

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Sensitivity to weightsScenarios 1-6: Variation (+/- 5 %) in weights allotted to AVL and AFF dimensions

SES Index of energy sources for different scenarios for rural and urban India

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Conclusion • The multi-criteria analysis framework has been applied to evaluate the SES

Index at the household level in rural and urban India separately.

• Results:– Rural - ‘Firewood and chips’ has the highest rank followed by Dung Cake and Kerosene in

rural areas, while LPG has the lowest rank.– Urban - Ranking of energy sources: Firewood, LPG, Electricity, Dung Cake, Coal and

Kerosene.

• Rankings are mostly insensitive to (+/-5%) variation in weights allotted to indicators.

• If India wants to achieve its goal of SES - Careful attention to promote the use of more ‘Efficient’ and ‘Environmentally Acceptable’ energy sources such as LPG and Electricity to ensure higher ‘Availability’ in the face of their lower ‘Affordability’.

ICAER - 2013 10-12 May 13Assessment of SES at household level in India –Cdr Kapil Narula

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Thank You