16 Social Media Trends for 2010 -

by Agent Wildfire

Sean Moffitt @SeanMoffittPresident & Chief Evangelist, Agent WildfireNovember 2009

Predictions can be a tricky business….yikes

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." -- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment

Corp., 1977.

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Attributed to Bill Gates, 1981.

"Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet's continuing exponential growth. But I predict

the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse."

Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, 1995.

In the year 3000 YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook will merge into one super-time-wasting website called 'You Twit

Face'

….it’s possible

More recently – Web Predictions2001 2002

Web clickthroughs drop Weblogs will become more popular

Web-based advertising models plummet

Google will go public

Web-based ad agencies downsize

De-emphasis on HTML

Focus on enterprise sales Bluetooth will disappear

Customers will pay online Peer-to-peer as viable bus. model

Cyber attack will occur on air traffic controls

Outsourcing will take more control -operating budgets

Jakob Nielsen, Andy Oram Fagan Finder, ZD Net, Gartner

Some good….some bad…2003 2004

Broadband content Online voting would not happen by 2014

ITV The next decade health care will boom with tech

Fewer ads, more impact Social networks will expand our circles

Wireless will flounder News/publishing will need to adopt the most

Two tier internet – for fee and for free TiVo kills TV format, Napster kills music

Myth that internet is borderless will die One devastating attack will occur

ClickZ, Gerry McGovern Pew Internet

…and some ugly2005 2006

PDAs become pass, move to cell phones

2 to 3 game changers will make Flickr look small

Many people will lose jobs over blogs Web 2.0 as a term will Fall into disuse

Microsoft will open source a major product

Ecommerce meets social tools

Several Fortune 1000s will set up 24/7 blogging teams

Digg will expand into other areas

Jobs will move from iPod to iPhone focus

Microsoft Live will become the leader in apps

The Year of the Corporate Blog Five piece website has worn out welcome

Jupiter, Robert Scoble, Neville Hobson Conversion Rater, Poynter Online

Shift Happens Quickly

2000 2009

Cell phone users 750 million 3.8 billion

Internet users 360 million 1.6 billion

Social network members Few 1.2 billion Napsters

Blogs Hundreds 200+million

Ave. No. of Twitter Followers 0 70 Ave. No. of Facebook friends 0 130

16 Social Media Trends for 2010

Trend #1 - Attention Overload & Filtering

Trend #1 - Attention Overload & Filtering

More Volume Captive Audience

…Be the First …Get Clever

Trend #1 - Attention Overload & Filtering

More Aggressive Filters

…Learn SEO,Get networked,

Have great content

A-listing/Exclusivity/Private Spaces

Build Influencer RelationshipsTop 50 Journos/Top 100 Bloggers/

Top 500 Networkers

Trend #2 - Brand Community Building

The New 2.0 Frontiers

“Internal purposes” 65%

“External purposes” 58%

“Working with partners and suppliers” 41%

Trend #3 – Local, Grassroots, Local, Grassroots

Trend #3 – Local apps, geo tagging, contextual gaming/advertising

Trend #4 – Monetization…someone finally needs to pay us

Beliefs Strongly Agree AgreeAgencies need to radically reinvent themselves to stay competitive

39% 44%

Managing the customer experience is the key battleground for business

32% 50%

Source: Agent Wildfire Buzz Report 2009

Trend #5 – Radical Reinvention of Agencies

Ethnography?

Design?

Customer Experience? Compensation?

GrassrootsConnection?

Own the Idea?

Trend #6 – Employee Social Media

Trend #7 – Personal Brands = Corporate Brands = Brandividuals

Trend #8 – Content Syndication

How to Avoid This…

Trend #9 – The Rise of Community Evangelists/Managers

Community/Brand Evangelists – Social Media Bridges

How to Avoid This…

Trend #10 – Collaborative Real-Time Communication

Trend #11 – Joint Ventures

Trend #12 – Portability of Web

Trend #13 – Crowdsourcing Sacred Cows

Trend #14 – Word of Mouth Marketing

Expected 5 year Compound Annual Growth Rate

Word of Mouth 27%Internet/Mobile 14%

Branded Entertainment 13%Custom Publishing 11%Out of Home 10%

Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson

The world at our doorstep but…

Trend #15 – Math Marketing & Data Visualization

Trend #16 – Video Social Media

32

Marketers Never Forget – Humans are Hard Wired Social Animals

-30 industry/social media experts

- 100 brand communities/

initiatives

-Ongoing…

Agent Wildfire - Wiki Brand Strategy/Consulting Making Sense of a Participation Marketplace for

the now …and future

Types of Strategy & Consulting Projects WOM Executive Strategy Development Non-Traditional, Grassroots Planning Brand Story and Lingo Development Innovation Development Programs

Perfect For: Head of Marketing or Communications Senior company executives Head of mid-sized companies/start-ups Product developers Heads of innovation/research Brand leaders

Sean Moffittsmoffitt@agentwildfire.com

(416) 255-4500

Twitter: @seanmoffittwww.AgentWildfire.com

Blog: Buzz Canuck