17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Examples of pro-active approaches to handle and communicate...

17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra

Examples of pro-active approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties


Proactive approaches to handle and communicate uncertainties

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Forward looking is about uncertainties Controversial policy dossiers

– Disagreement about how the future “should” develop (normative)– Contesting problem frames– Doubts about quality of data and analysis

How to add value and clarity to the user?



3

Challenges

Expert advisers should be reflexive (making concious choices)

Methods for dealing with uncertainty should merely be considered as tools, not as the solutions

Fear for paralysis in policy making should not be allowed to block communication about uncertainty

Communication with a wider audience about uncertainties is crucial



4

Politicians must decide under uncertainty The law that provides the agency’s mandate

requires that different scientific perspectives in areas of controversy should be reported

PBL must inspire the Ministry in openness and dealing with uncertainties

PBL, policy, plurality and uncertainties



5

Two examples from the PBL

Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and communication:– Systematic step-wise approach to address uncertainties

Contested problem frames as a starting point fpr scenario development:The example of the Dutch Nature Outlook 2020-2040. Four Visions on Nature Policy development.– Accomodating a plurality of views and possible futures– How to avoid confusion while bringing the message?



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Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication



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Purpose of the Guidance

Offer assistance to analysts Focussed on the following parts of assessments:

– problem framing

– involvement of stakeholders

– selection of indicators

– appraisal of knowledge base

– mapping and assessment of relevant uncertainties

– reporting of uncertainty information



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CONSENSUS ON KNOWLEDGEC

ON

SE

NS

US

ON

VA

LU

ES

+

_

+

_

Structured problem

road maintenance

Moderately structured (consensus on means) problem abortion; euthanasia

Moderately structured(consensus on goals) problem particulate matter

Unstructured problem

climate change

Policy problems

advocate

problem recognizermediator

problem solver



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‘Predictions’ are fundamentally non-statistical. Scenario uncertainty is not only about model inputs!

In end-to-end assessment of uncertainty, you also must be aware of what can go wrong in the upper levels of the assessment (summaries, press releases, media stories)



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CONSENSUS ON KNOWLEDGEC

ON

SE

NS

US

ON

VA

LU

ES

+

_

+_

Structured problem

statistical uncertainty

Moderately structured (consensus on means) problem value-ladenness

Moderately structured(consensus on goals) problem methodologicalunreliability;recognized ignorance

Unstructured problem

recognized ignorance;methodologicalunreliablity; value-ladenness

Relevant uncertainties



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Detailed Guidance

Structure of the Guidance

QuickscanHints &

Actions List

QuickscanQuestionnai

re

Mini-Checklist

Tool Catalogue

for UncertaintyAssessment

Reminder listInvokes ReflectionPortal to QS

Further GuidanceAdviceHints & Implications



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Stakeholder Participation Guidance



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Eight general conclusions (I)

1. Be tolerant with respect to uncertainty

2. Consider uncertainty information as knowledge

3. Recognizing ignorance often more important than characterizing variability

4. Communicate uncertainty in terms of societal/political risks



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Eight general conclusions (II)

5. Perform ‘extended peer reviews’ on knowledge inputs

6. Maintain space for dissidents

7. Make use of best practices in uncertainty communication

8. Institutionalize attention for uncertainty (guidances, courses, professional roles, ...)



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Dutch Nature Outlook 2020-2040



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Background for the Dutch Nature Outlook One of the tasks of PBL (in the law)• Natural resources are exploited in a unsustainable way• Nature is increasingly considered a hindrance for other land

uses• Growing gap between nature and landscape policy and

society• Decentralisation, deregulation en privatising of policy• Motives and guiding principles for policy?



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Objectives

• Inspire the discourse on the future of nature and landscapes in our country

• Support nature and landscape policy in order to make is more robust, flexible and effective

Input for interdepartmental discourse about the future of rural areas

Input for interdepartmental policy research programme on nature

Input for policy proposals to cut government budgets



2020

From motives to challenges

Keep, restore and develop internationally characteristic biodiversity

Make green areas in city and the countryside accessible and create possibilities for people to enjoy and experience them

Recognize functions of nature and use resources in a more sustainable way

Increase nature’s economic “wins” and reduce burden of rules resulting from Nature policy



2121

Four Visions

Vital Nature Nature as experience

Functional Nature “Fitting” Nature



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Present Future

Abstra

ct

Con

cre

te

Present situation

Policy scenarios Context

scenarios

Recommen- dations

Scenario-cycle



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Vital Nature

• Challenge: turning the trend of downgrading biodiversity

• Guiding principle: intrinsic value of nature and landscapes

• Large and coherent national ecological network: dunes, marshes, rivers, and lateral moraines

• Sustainable populations, natural processes, climate zones

• Nature is separated from other land uses



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Vital Nature

• National government makes long-term visions, defines a clear policy framework, generates budgets, and supervises other actors

• Policy programmes for nature development and water management are combined

• Ecological networks is scaled up, upgraded, and connected with neighbour countries

• Agriculture around natural areas is subject to firm norms



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Functional Nature

• Challenge: reducing the exploitation of natural resources

• Guiding principle: sustainable use of nature and landscapes

• Many small natural sites and landscape elements in rural areas; many parks and green spaces in and around cities

• Used for water retention, holding CO2, production of biomass, pollination

• Nature is highly interwoven with other land uses and valued as equal



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Functional Nature

• Municipalities cooperate intensively with public and private organisations

• Public-private enterprises organise local and regional markets for ecosystem services

• Ecological network is transformed into local and regional “ecosystem networks”

• In the whole country agriculture is subject to firm norms



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Nature as Experience

• Challenge: bridging the gap between nature policy and society

• Guiding principle: improving aesthetic quality of living and working environment

• Many newly developed landscape elements in highly accessible rural areas

• Many green and blue oases in cities and recreational sites around them

• Nature is highly interwoven with other land uses and considered equal



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Nature as experience

• Provinces coordinate integrated regional development

• Public and private organisations transfer money into regional development funds

• Ecological network is extended and transformed in highly attractive and accessible sites

• Agriculture in and around natural sites is subject to firm norms



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“Fitting”Nature

• Challenge: reducing costs and hindrance of other land uses

• Guiding principle: nature and landscapes represent money value and shouldn’t limit other land uses

• Few and little natural sites and landscape elements scattered around the country

• Small parks and green elements in the cities• Nature is highly interwoven with other land uses

but subordinate



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“Fitting” Nature

• Private and public organisations go into partnerships (site administrators are privatised)

• Real estate developers and municipalities invest in small parks, canals and ponds

• Ecological networks is reduced to Natura 2000 sites

• Farmers, leisure entrepreneurs, etc. are allowed to expand their activities in and around natural sites



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Assessing effects



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Building blocks for policy

Ecological network keeps its value

Room for experience and recreation

Recognize and stimulate sustainable use

More attention to “wins”, less to burdens

Planning (“RO”) policy is the basis for multiple land use



33 9 februari 2012 | Petra van Egmond en Ed DammersNatuurverkenning 2010 - 2040

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How did the messages “land”?

Minister for Economics, Agriculture and Innovation: Interested; no commitments

Parliament: Strong disagreements between the parties Scoring the effects helps to focus discussions

Provinces: are interested to think through the Visions

Nature organizations and others: A lot of interest in further presentations

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17 Feb 2012 | Willemijn Tuinstra Examples of pro-active approaches to handle and communicate...

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