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17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR. 17 May 2012 EGYPT Moussa: We Disagree with many Aspects of Israeli Policy : Jerusalem Post Egyptian presidential candidate and former foreign minister Amr Moussa said Egypt disagrees with many aspects of Israel's foreign policy, especially with regards to the Palestinians and the peace process. Military Ruler Urges Egyptians to Vote, Vows Fair Election : Al Arabiya Egypt’s military ruler Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi urged citizens on Wednesday to vote in next week’s presidential election, vowing a fair poll that will serve as an example to the world. Brotherhood Mps Accuse SCAF of Backing Shafiq, Warn of Tampering with Votes : Egypt Independent In its third consecutive session, Parliament has again attacked candidates competing in the presidential election, with parliamentarians from the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party accusing the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of backing Ahmed Shafiq. Brotherhood Served under Mubarak Regime too, says Shafiq : Al-Masry Al-Youm Presidential hopeful Ahmed Shafiq resumed his criticism of the Muslim Brotherhood on Wednesday and defended himself from allegations that he represents the regime of ousted President Hosni Mubarak. Egypt MP's Meet SCAF to Resolve Abbasiya Detainee Crisis : Ahram Online Saad El Katatni, the speaker of the People's Assembly, sent a delegation of four MPs to the ruling military council on Tuesday to resolve the escalating crisis at Tora prison, as Abbasiya detainees threaten to join a mass hunger strike on 20 May in protest of the torture they have allegedly suffered in custody. ISRAEL / GAZA Nehushtan to Post: IAF Ready for Threats, Including Iran : Jerusalem Post The Israel Air Force is prepared for the many missions and threats it faces in the Middle East, including a possible operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities, outgoing OC Air Force Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan told The Jerusalem Post. The exclusive interview, which will appear in Friday’s Magazine, was conducted with Nehushtan – who has led the IAF for the past four years – just days before he handed over command to Maj.- Gen. Amir Eshel. Barak: Fall of Assad Regime will Seriously Hurt Iran and Hezbollah : Times of Israel The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad will prove a major blow to Iran and Hezbollah, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Wednesday. Israeli Jet Flew into Turkish Cypriot Airspace, Ankara Says : Times of Israel Turkey accused Israel of violating the airspace of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus five times on Monday, in an area which reportedly is the site for oil and gas exploration. New Palestinian Cabinet in West Bank Sworn In : Now Lebanon A new Palestinian government in the West Bank was sworn in on Wednesday at a ceremony in the West Bank town of Ramallah, in a move that has angered the Hamas government in Gaza. Hamas Fumes as Abbas Reshuffles PA Cabinet : Arutz Sheva An official familiar with the terms told the Bethlehem-based Maan News Agency that Hamas demanded to keep the key ministries in the new government, including the ministry of interior, and also demanded no change in the structure of security services in the Gaza Strip. Israeli Warplanes Violate Lebanese Airspace : The Daily Star OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected] UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO
Transcript
Page 1: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

EGYPT Moussa: We Disagree with many Aspects of Israeli Policy: Jerusalem Post Egyptian presidential candidate and former foreign minister Amr Moussa said Egypt disagrees with many aspects of Israel's foreign policy, especially with regards to the Palestinians and the peace process. Military Ruler Urges Egyptians to Vote, Vows Fair Election: Al Arabiya Egypt’s military ruler Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi urged citizens on Wednesday to vote in next week’s presidential election, vowing a fair poll that will serve as an example to the world. Brotherhood Mps Accuse SCAF of Backing Shafiq, Warn of Tampering with Votes: Egypt Independent In its third consecutive session, Parliament has again attacked candidates competing in the presidential election, with parliamentarians from the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party accusing the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of backing Ahmed Shafiq. Brotherhood Served under Mubarak Regime too, says Shafiq: Al-Masry Al-Youm Presidential hopeful Ahmed Shafiq resumed his criticism of the Muslim Brotherhood on Wednesday and defended himself from allegations that he represents the regime of ousted President Hosni Mubarak. Egypt MP's Meet SCAF to Resolve Abbasiya Detainee Crisis: Ahram Online Saad El Katatni, the speaker of the People's Assembly, sent a delegation of four MPs to the ruling military council on Tuesday to resolve the escalating crisis at Tora prison, as Abbasiya detainees threaten to join a mass hunger strike on 20 May in protest of the torture they have allegedly suffered in custody. ISRAEL / GAZA Nehushtan to Post: IAF Ready for Threats, Including Iran: Jerusalem Post The Israel Air Force is prepared for the many missions and threats it faces in the Middle East, including a possible operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities, outgoing OC Air Force Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan told The Jerusalem Post. The exclusive interview, which will appear in Friday’s Magazine, was conducted with Nehushtan – who has led the IAF for the past four years – just days before he handed over command to Maj.- Gen. Amir Eshel. Barak: Fall of Assad Regime will Seriously Hurt Iran and Hezbollah: Times of Israel The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad will prove a major blow to Iran and Hezbollah, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Wednesday. Israeli Jet Flew into Turkish Cypriot Airspace, Ankara Says: Times of Israel Turkey accused Israel of violating the airspace of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus five times on Monday, in an area which reportedly is the site for oil and gas exploration. New Palestinian Cabinet in West Bank Sworn In: Now Lebanon A new Palestinian government in the West Bank was sworn in on Wednesday at a ceremony in the West Bank town of Ramallah, in a move that has angered the Hamas government in Gaza. Hamas Fumes as Abbas Reshuffles PA Cabinet: Arutz Sheva An official familiar with the terms told the Bethlehem-based Maan News Agency that Hamas demanded to keep the key ministries in the new government, including the ministry of interior, and also demanded no change in the structure of security services in the Gaza Strip. Israeli Warplanes Violate Lebanese Airspace: The Daily Star

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

Page 2: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

Israeli fighter jets violated Lebanese airspace Wednesday. The warplanes crossed the border before midday and dispersed over southern Lebanon, diving low several times before roaring back into the sky. JORDAN Jordan Monarchy Faces Growing Challenges: UPI Queen Rania is coming under mounting criticism over alleged corruption in the Hashemite kingdom's political elite as the pro-Western monarchy faces major challenges to introduce reforms and scrap the 1994 peace treaty with Israel. Increase in Crime Cases Burdening Courts, President: The Jordan Times President of the Criminal Court on Wednesday said the increase in reported crimes and murders in Jordan is adding more burdens on the current six tribunals that are hearing these cases. LEBANON Hezbollah’s Khalil: Tripoli’s Events Due to ‘Sectarian Tension’: Now Lebanon Hajj Hussein al-Khalil, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s political aide, said in remarks published on Thursday that the latest events which rocked the Lebanese city of Tripoli were due “to sectarian tension.” Mikati Orders Security Forces to Erect Checkpoints in Tripoli and Arrest Armed Men: The Daily Star Prime Najib Minister Mikati ordered security forces Thursday to erect checkpoints in Tripoli, north Lebanon, and arrest anyone carrying arms in public. March 14 Blames Syria for Tripoli Clashes, Demands Arab, Intl’ Aid to Control Lebanese-Syrian Border: Naharnet The March 14 General Secretariat condemned on Wednesday the recent clashes in Tripoli, accusing Syria of being behind the unrest as it is seeking to spread its crisis to Lebanon. Two Lebanese Army Soldiers Wounded in Violence-Stricken Tripoli: Now Lebanon The National News Agency (NNA) reported on Thursday that two Lebanese army soldiers were wounded in the ongoing violence in the northern city of Tripoli. Berri says List of Assassination Targets Serious, Dangerous: The Daily Star Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said Wednesday that a reported list of figures targeted for assassination by extremist groups is dangerous, and voiced relief at the Lebanese army’s measures to restore security in Tripoli. FSA: Hezbollah Fighters in Syria, Carrying out Raids: Asharq Al-Awsat As the Syrian military continued to shell various areas of the country yesterday, Free Syrian Army [FSA] sources informed Asharq Al-Awsat that Lebanese kill-squads affiliated to Hezbollah had entered Syrian territory, specifically the al-Qasir region, close to the Lebanese border. Hezbollah says Solution to Spending Crisis with Sleiman, Mikati: The Daily Star Hezbollah Chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s chief political aide said in remarks published Thursday that the president and prime minister hold the key to resolving the Cabinet’s spending crisis, and added that the recent events in Tripoli were a result of heightened sectarian rhetoric. Sayyed Nasrallah Receives PFLP-GC Head, Delegation: Al Manar

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

Page 3: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah received on Tuesday the Secretary General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command, Ahmad Jibril, and his deputy Secretary-General Talal Naji, in addition to an accompanying delegation from the front. SYRIA Live Blog on Developments in Syria: Now Lebanon Of Note today: Syrian forces on Thursday killed 10 people, The Local Coordination Committees, threatened to pull out of opposition bloc the Syrian National Council over its "monopolization" of power. Elections Show Syrians Back the Regime’: Assad Says in Interview: Al Arabiya Syrians showed in elections this month that they support the government’s policy of reform and a majority of them back the regime, President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview broadcasted on Wednesday. Iran 'Sending Arms to Syria despite Ban': Al Jazeera Syria remains the top destination for Iranian arms shipments, in violation of a UN Security Council ban on weapons exports by the Islamic Republic, according to a confidential report. Assad: Syrians Support Me: Al Bawaba The Syrian president Bashar al-Assad said he hoped the new French president Francois Hollande would think about the interests of France and change its policy toward Syria and the region. He made these comments in an interview broadcast Wednesday on Rossia 24 TV. "I hope the new president will think about the interests of France. Election Results Show Syrians Support the Regime, says Assad: Al Arabiya Legislative elections in Syria this month showed a majority support for the regime and the government’s policy of reform, embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview broadcasted on Wednesday. Syrian Opposition Faces Fractures, Infighting: The Daily Star A key activist group threatened Thursday to withdraw from Syria's main opposition umbrella grouping, saying the council has drifted away from the spirit of the Syrian revolution. Lebanese, Syrian Hostages Released in Swap: The Daily Star Lebanese and Syrian citizens caught up in a tit-for-tat kidnapping linked to the Syria crisis were released Wednesday. EDITORIALS Islamists Seeking Pardon for Terror Convicts, Egyptian Official: Asharq Al-Awsat An Egyptian government official informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the country’s Islamists are seeking to develop legislation pardoning all those convicted and accused in terrorism-related cases, adding that should such legislation pass through parliament this would benefit hundreds of dangerous criminals, including criminals convicted in terror cases with no political aspects or features. When will Annan Admit Failure: Arab News Utilizing diplomatic language, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal stated that confidence in Kofi Annan’s mission in Syria “has started to decrease quickly.” To be more explicit, this means that Annan’s mission has failed, which is precisely what was expected since the beginning. Will Tripoli Make Samir Geagea Pay?: The Daily Star

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

Among the less obvious victims of the fighting in Tripoli this past weekend was Geagea. The head of the Lebanese Forces has made an alliance with the Sunnis a cornerstone of his electoral strategy next year, but suddenly many Christians saw, or thought they saw, that not a few of these partners were fearsome, bearded gunmen. In Egypt's Vote, Revolutionaries Lack a Candidate: Asharq Al-Awsat A black smoke covered Cairo's Tahrir Square. Around a dozen protesters who had been holding a weeklong sit-in demanding an end to military rule had come to the conclusion their gathering was useless. So over the weekend, they splashed gas on their tents and banners, burned them to ashes and left. Is U.S. Going Above and Beyond for Israel?: Washington Post Should the United States put solving Israel’s budget problems ahead of its own? When it comes to defense spending, it appears that the United States already is. Hezbollah’s Newest Threat: Tablet Magazine But there’s something else behind his Friday remarks: Nasrallah is more sensitive than ever to the devastation to which he has exposed the Shiite community because he fears that the culture of resistance Hezbollah has cultivated may be on the wane. Or, as anti-Hezbollah Shiite activist Lokman Slim told me “The shelf-life of the resistance has reached its expiration date.” Supporting Documentation:

EGYPT (Top)

17 May 2012 JPost Moussa: We Disagree with Many Aspects of Israeli Policy Egyptian presidential candidate and former foreign minister Amr Moussa said Egypt disagrees with many aspects of Israel's foreign policy, especially with regards to the Palestinians and the peace process. Speaking with CNN's Christiane Amanpour on Wednesday, Moussa said Egypt would respect the 1979 peace accords as it would all of Egypt's previous international agreements. Moussa said the issue of continued Israeli occupation, and the Jewish settlement movement, must be addressed. He stressed the importance of maintaining relations with Israel in order to keep Egyptian mediation relevant in the peace process. 17 May 2012 Al Arabiya Military Ruler Urges Egyptians to Vote, Vows Fair Election

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

(U) Egypt’s military ruler, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, took power when president Hosni Mubarak was ousted by a popular uprising last year. (AFP) Egypt’s military ruler Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi urged citizens on Wednesday to vote in next week’s presidential election, vowing a fair poll that will serve as an example to the world. Tantawi, who took power when President Hosni Mubarak was ousted by a popular uprising last year, called on Egyptians to “shoulder their national responsibility in the presidential election and choose a president for Egypt,” the official MENA news agency reported. “Egypt will offer an example to the world of free and fair presidential elections that (reflect) the will of the people,” Tantawi said. The country’s first contested presidential election comes after 15 tumultuous months of political upheaval following the popular revolt launched on January 25, 2001. Thirteen candidates are vying for the top job in the May 23-24 election, including former Arab League chief Amr Mussa and Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister under Mubarak. The two secular candidates face competition from the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Mursi and moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Tantawi, has vowed to hand power over to civilian rule once a president has been elected. 17 May 2012 Egypt Independent Brotherhood Mps Accuse SCAF of Backing Shafiq, Warn of Tampering with Votes In its third consecutive session, Parliament has again attacked candidates competing in the presidential election, with parliamentarians from the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party accusing the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces of backing Ahmed Shafiq. They warned of adding illegally names of army and police personnel, who are banned from participating in the election, to voter registration lists. MP Mohamed al-Adl claimed that there are large-scale attempts by the National Security Agency and cadres of the dissolved National Democratic Party to back a certain presidential candidate who had once said he would not allow the Muslim Brotherhood to rule the country.

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

Page 6: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

He added that he has proof of 80 names of police and army personnel that have been added to the lists. Leftist presidential candidate Abul Ezz al-Hariry claimed that rigging already took place in certain Egyptian embassies in the Gulf, and called for a parliamentary committee to monitor the voting. The SCAF renewed its statement that it is impartial to all candidates, leaving the Egyptian people to decide based on their own free will, and vowing to conduct the election in a manner that all the world would praise. In a report on Tuesday evening, Reuters said that at least two parties dominated by members of the dissolved NDP support Shafiq, who served as the last prime minister under former President Hosni Mubarak. But Shafiq's presidential campaign on Wednesday denied reports by Reuters that he was using former offices of the dissolved National Democratic Party. Campaign officials said in a statement that a Reuters news agency report concerning Shafiq’s use of the headquarters was “completely false and reflects the lack of professionalism, accuracy and verification of the editor of the report, which was published by several Egyptian newspapers.” Reuters later corrected the story to say "some members from at least two parties," not the parties themselves. 17 May 2012 Al-Masry Al-Youm Brotherhood Served Under Mubarak Regime too, says Shafiq Presidential hopeful Ahmed Shafiq resumed his criticism of the Muslim Brotherhood on Wednesday and defended himself from allegations that he represents the regime of ousted President Hosni Mubarak. “Everyone served under the former [Mubarak] regime, even the Muslim Brotherhood,” Shafiq said in an interview on privately owned Al-Hayat satellite channel. “Eighty-eight of them were in the 2005 Parliament after coming to an agreement with the National Democratic Party.” Shafiq said 99 percent of the remnants of the now-disbanded NDP do not support his candidacy. Under Mubarak, Shafiq served as civil aviation minister and then as the country’s last prime minister during the uprising early last year. Fears that the country's situation would deteriorate prompted him to run, Shafiq said, implying that this would happen if an Islamist is elected to the country’s highest office. He said the Brotherhood should learn about the nature of political work before getting involved in it. In March 2011, the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces dismissed Shafiq from his post following mass protests demanding his removal by activists who considered him Mubarak's crony. “Our revolution in Tahrir Square was legitimate because it was blessed by the people, but whoever revolts against my victory would be illegitimate,” Shafiq said. “The Brotherhood took to the square after the youth had started the revolution and they were the ones who yielded the results,” he said, describing himself as Sufi.

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

He added that he would seek to engage Muslims, Copts and women in his presidential administration. Shafiq added that he could not imagine the runoffs for the presidential election being between two Islamists. 16 May 2012 Ahram Online Egypt MP's Meet SCAF to Resolve Abbasiya Detainee Crisis At Tuesday meeting with MPs, SCAF denies military personnel brutalized Abbasiya detainees; over 300 prisoners threaten 20 May hunger strike to protest poor treatment in custody

(U) Army soldiers clashes with protesters at Abbasiya square near Egypt's Defence Ministry, in Cairo May 4, 2012. (Photo: Reuters) Saad El Katatni, the speaker of the People's Assembly, sent a delegation of four MPs to the ruling military council on Tuesday to resolve the escalating crisis at Tora prison, as Abbasiya detainees threaten to join a mass hunger strike on 20 May in protest of the torture they have allegedly suffered in custody. Katatni's decision came after several MPs proposed to discuss human rights violations against detainees since their arrest on 4 May during clashes between protesters and the military police outside of the Ministry of Defence in Abbasiya. The delegation consisted of Mohamed El-Beltagy, secretary-general of the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), Salafist Asala Party MP Mamdouh Ismail, head of the parliamentary Human Rights Committee Mohamed Anwar El-Sadat and FJP MP Adel Hamed. The parliamentary group met with Major General Hamdy Badeen, head of the military police and Major Mamdouh Shaheen, member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), who confirmed that "military police were subject to physical violations and not the other way around." However, Shaheen promised to conduct a second meeting to further investigate the detainees' accusations.

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

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Page 8: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

Earlier on Tuesday, the 300 detainees arrested during Friday's security forces attack on a march to the defence ministry, have threatened to join 16 hunger strikers in a mass hunger strike on 20 May, unless they are released without facing military tribunals.

ISRAEL / GAZA (Top)

17 May 2012 Jerusalem Post Nehushtan to Post: IAF Ready for Threats, Including Iran The Israel Air Force is prepared for the many missions and threats it faces in the Middle East, including a possible operation against Iran’s nuclear facilities, outgoing OC Air Force Maj.-Gen. Ido Nehushtan has told The Jerusalem Post. The exclusive interview, which will appear in Friday’s Magazine, was conducted with Nehushtan – who has led the IAF for the past four years – just days before he handed over command to Maj.- Gen. Amir Eshel. “I understand the missions that stand before the IAF, and we have done everything we can during this period to create capabilities so we can fulfill these missions,” he said in response to a question of whether the air force was capable of dealing with the Iranian threat. “In general, the IAF is prepared for all of these missions.” Nehushtan came out strongly during the interview against the ongoing public discussion regarding a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, saying it lacked “basic facts.” The Israeli media has been flooded with interviews and reports in recent months regarding a possible strike. IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Benny Gantz, for example, said in a series of interviews published on Independence Day that Israel had prepared a viable military option to attack the Islamic Republic. Defense Minister Ehud Barak has spoken many times about the need for the right timing for such a strike, while former Mossad chief Meir Dagan and former Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief Yuval Diskin have warned of the consequences of such an operation. “I think that in this specific issue [Iran] we should not talk,” Nehushtan said. “I say this with all of the responsibility it entails. I think that a public discourse on this issue is lacking the basic facts needed to hold it and I think that it should not be held in this way.” As an example, he brought Israel’s bombing of the Osirak reactor in Iraq in 1981. “The Iraqi thing was known for years before the reactor was attacked. It was known but it did not turn into a public discussion and that should be the case here as well,” he said. During the interview, Nehushtan warned that Israel’s air superiority was increasingly undermined by the proliferation of sophisticated surface-to-air missile systems throughout the region – in Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and the Sinai Peninsula. “The IAF needs to be ready to fly in places where there is a threat to its superiority,” he said “This is the case already now and therefore when we approach a front like Lebanon or Gaza we will first look at the intelligence, then study the threats and then think about the best way to carry out our missions.”

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

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Page 9: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

17 May 2012 Times of Israel Barak: Fall of Assad Regime will Seriously Hurt Iran and Hezbollah

(U) Defense Minister Barak during an interview with Piers Morgan on CNN. (screen capture: CNN The fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad will prove a major blow to Iran and Hezbollah, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Wednesday. Speaking to CNN, Barak said regime change in Syria would remove a key element connecting Iran and Hezbollah in the region, weakening the two actors’ ability to fight Israel. He said Islamic Jihad, a Gaza-based terror group, may also be affected by Assad’s downfall. However, he admitted to feeling frustrated by the length of time it is taking for Syria’s president to succumb to pressure from rebels and leave office, but asserted that that outcome was inevitable. Syria has been racked by violence for the last 14 months as opposition rebels have tried to push Assad and his Alawite supporters from power. The defense minister has made similar predictions in the past about Assad’s imminent fall. According to Israel Radio, Barak told interviewer Piers Morgan that the best result would be if President Bashar Assad and his officials leave office without the need to dismantle the Syrian government, army, and intelligence services. The defense minister, who is in the United States for talks with US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta, called on the international community to facilitate that course of events and stressed in particular the roles of Russia and Turkey. 17 May 2012 Times of Israel Israeli Jet Flew into Turkish Cypriot Airspace, Ankara Says

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

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Page 10: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

(U) An Israel Air Force Cobra Tzefa airplane (photo credit: Ofer Zidon/Flash90) Turkey accused Israel of violating the airspace of Turkish-occupied northern Cyprus five times on Monday, in an area which reportedly is the site for oil and gas exploration. According to Turkish media reports Thursday, the Israeli aircraft flew over the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus between 11:05 a.m. and 12:49 p.m. local time on Monday, and Turkish fighter jets had to chase out the Israeli jet, the Turkish army said in a statement. The Turkish news website Famagusta Gazette reported that the army statement gave no other details about the incident and did not identify the type of Israeli plane involved in the incident. The reported incident is not the first time Turkey has accused Israel of violating its airspace. Last September, Turkey also alleged that Israeli planes flew over natural gas reserves near Cyprus, and even approached a Turkish seismic research ship in the area. The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is a self-declared state located on the northeastern part of the island of Cyprus that has no international recognition other than by Turkey. The international community regards the area as occupied territory belonging to the Republic of Cyprus. Turkish-Israeli relations have been strained since Israel’s maritime raid of the Mavi Marmara Gaza flotilla ship in 2010, during which nine Turkish citizens were killed. In April, Turkey reportedly blocked Israel’s participation in an upcoming NATO summit because Israel has not apologized for the deaths of those Turkish citizens. 17 May 2012 Arutz Sheva Hamas Fumes as Abbas Reshuffles PA Cabinet

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

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Page 11: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

Unclassified Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas reshuffled his cabinet on Wednesday, “The government will be sworn in at (president Mahmud) Abbas’s office at 6:00 pm (1500 GMT),”PA labour minister Ahmad Majdalani told AFP. Abbas has been arranging his new cabinet - which will have seven new ministers - since the previous government resigned amid an ongoing corruption probe and fiscal insolvency in February 2011. The decision to shake things up in Ramallah came shortly after the PA leadership announced it would hold legislative and presidential elections “in the coming months.” Abbas previously tasked prime minister Salam Fayyad with forming a new government, but then put the brakes on in April after announced he had negotiated a reconciliation deal with Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mashaal. The agreement called for the creation of an interim cabinet of independent technocrats selected by the two factions, which would prepare for elections by May 2012. However, the deal revealed a growing schism between Mashaal's politburo-in-exile and the Hamas leadership in Gaza headed by Ismail Haniyeh, who effectively scuttled the March deal. Mashaal has tentatively accepted the notion of a state on the 1967 borders, and offered Abbas a one-year mandate for negotiations with Israel – though his fellow politburo members maintain any agreement with Israel will only serve as a “prelude to war.” However, Haniyeh and his allies maintain that all talks with Israel are “futile” and believes the tide of the Arab Spring will lead to victory in the movement’s armed quest to destroy the Jewish state. An official familiar with the terms told the Bethlehem-based Maan News Agency that Hamas demanded to keep the key ministries in the new government, including the ministry of interior, and also demanded no change in the structure of security services in the Gaza Strip. The Interior Ministry controls the Hamas 'security services.' Additionally, the source said Hamas "was not prepared to abandon control of Gaza." In essence, the new terms would allow Hamas to retain sole control over Gaza while giving it a say in the running of PA enclaves in Judea and Samaria. As a result, Abbas who has rejected Haniyeh's terms, restarted his plan to form a new cabinet without Hamas. According to a source in Fayyad’s office, seven new ministers will take up the portfolios covering health, tourism, national economy, justice, agriculture, transportation and telecommunications.

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO

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UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

Majdalani claimed the move to replace the old cabinet instead of bringing in the interim cabinet called for by the unity deal was a not a sign that the reconciliation process had collapsed. “No, we still hope that the reconciliation will happen. But we need to reshuffle the government to deal with the population’s everyday life,” he said. Meanwhile, Hamas reacted angrily to news of the new cabinet saying it underscored that the Fatah-Hamas unity deal was going nowhere. “This strengthens the division,” Hamas spokesman Fawzi Barhum told AFP. “This government was built on corruption, and was not the choice of the Palestinian people and was not approved by the legislative council.” Barhum said the move “shows clearly to all that the Palestinian Authority and Fatah are far from the implementation” of the unity agreement. Abbas’ Fatah faction has been pushing forward with plans for new elections – including laying the groundwork in Gaza – but Hamas has not consented to allow them to proceed. 16 May 2012 The Daily Star Israeli Warplanes Violate Lebanese Airspace Israeli fighter jets violated Lebanese airspace Wednesday. The warplanes crossed the border before midday and dispersed over southern Lebanon, diving low several times before roaring back into the sky. The jets flew low over Sidon, Tyre, Nabatiyeh and Marjayoun.

JORDAN (Top)

16 May 2012 UPI Jordan Monarchy Faces Growing Challenges

(U) Queen Rania Al-Abdullah and King Abdullah II Bin Al Hussein of Jordan. (UPI Photo/Monika Graff)

OSINT Phone #: 813.827.1441 - Email: [email protected]

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Page 13: 17 may 2012 osint levant tracker

UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO The CENTCOM

This OSINT publication contains foreign media derived entirely from open sources in and around the CENTCOM AOR.

17 May 2012

Jordan's Queen Rania is coming under mounting criticism over alleged corruption in the Hashemite kingdom's political elite as the pro-Western monarchy faces major challenges to introduce reforms and scrap the 1994 peace treaty with Israel. The 41-year-old queen, whose parents are Palestinian, has long faced accusations she was playing too prominent a role in running the largely desert and highly vulnerable state squeezed between the larger powers of Israel, Syria and Saudi Arabia. But as King Abdullah II, who she married in 1993 when he was a prince not then in line for the Hashemite throne, has sought to ride out the political turbulence from pro-democracy uprisings that have convulsed the Arab world since January 2011, she has become more of a target for popular ire. The normally high-profile queen, a stylish, cosmopolitan beauty who was born in Kuwait, has been advised by Jordan's powerful security service to adopt a lower profile to deflect criticism of the monarchy at a time of regional turmoil. Abdullah, who ascended the throne in 1999 after the death of his father, King Hussein, has repeatedly pledged to introduce sweeping democratic reforms. But so far he has failed to produce. He has sought to deflect criticism by blaming the governments he appoints. So far he has gone through 10 prime ministers -- three in the last 18 months since the Arab Spring began. The last to go was Awn Shawkat al-Khasawneh, who suddenly resigned April 26 after six months. That was a major setback for Abdullah's efforts to maintain stability in the face of the regional upheaval while maintaining as much power as he can for the monarchy established by Britain after World War I. Khasawneh, a respected international jurist, was apparently the victim of a power struggle with the kingdom's powerful security service, the General Intelligence Directorate. The pace of political change has been glacial and talk of meaningful parliamentary democracy, where government would be formed on a parliamentary majority rather than the whims of the monarch, has all but vanished in recent months. The king, once beyond public criticism, is now coming under direct attack, along with his wife, who is also being accused of corruption. High unemployment and economic woes fuel the growing anger. Abdullah blamed Khasawneh for dragging his feet on reforms the king says he ordered him to introduce. But political insiders say Abdullah privately concedes his agenda of gradual reforms has been blocked by powerful elements within the security establishment. These shadowy figures are determined to prevent Islamists, the most organized opposition group, from making the major political gains their brethren have made in Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Abdullah's innate caution has been heightened by the bloodbath in Syria, Jordan's powerful and often aggressive northern neighbor. More than half Jordan's 6.5 million populations are of Palestinian origin, many of them refugees bitterly opposed to the 1994 peace agreement.

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17 May 2012

The protests are largely peaceful and tame by Middle Eastern standards, but they mask a growing discontent. There is also stiff opposition from the Bedouin tribes, bedrock of support for the monarchy. They feel threatened by the largely urban Palestinian business class that has amassed considerable power and because they fear Israel's seeking to drive Palestinians out of the West Bank to turn Jordan into a Palestinian state. The king's appointment of a prominent conservative, Fayez Tarawneh, to succeed Khasawneh has heightened public anger. Tarawneh is seen as a royal yes-man who won't press for reforms. In recent days there has been a nationwide surge of protests by Islamists and leftists demanding the abrogation of the peace treaty. They've been doing that for 18 years. But these days, the mood is becoming darker and more aggressive as other Arab states topple longtime rulers and Israel stalls the peace process. "For the moment, the opposition calls are for reform rather than regime change, but the signs are becoming clear that Abdullah has failed to understand the new pressures unleashed by the Arab Spring," said British analyst Julien Barnes-Darcy. Columnist Lamis Andoni also fears the worst. "the regimes reached the conclusion - I think it's a miscalculation -- it can carry on without making fundamental changes," she said. "It's betting the protest movement will get weaker and that it can fall back on its traditional power base of tribal leaders. … But the reality is the economic situation will undermine those assumptions." 17 May 2012 The Jordan Times Increase in Crime Cases Burdening Courts, President President of the Criminal Court on Wednesday said the increase in reported crimes and murders in Jordan is adding more burdens on the current six tribunals that are hearing these cases. In 2011, there were 1,586 cases that were heard by the tribunals and this is “a high number” for the existing tribunals, said Judge Nayef Samarat. “We noticed a yearly increase in the number of murders and other offences over the past years and we are hopeful that the Ministry of Justice will work to increase the number of tribunals,” Samarat told The Jordan Times. He added that such an increase wills “surely ensure faster trials and will ease the burden on the existing tribunals”. The current situation, despite the difficulties and hard work required, is even better than the past, the judge said. Nevertheless, Samarat explained that there is a specialized tribunal to hear murder cases and the majority of these cases end in less than one year. “In the past, it used to take three to five years for some cases to end. But this is no longer the case,” Samarat explained.

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17 May 2012

The court’s president said that in 2011, the tribunals issued verdicts on 261 murder cases, 500 attempted murder cases, 476 molestation cases, 98 rape cases and 38 attempted rape cases. “These figures include crimes and murders that occurred in 2010 or even before and do not mean that they all end in convictions,” Samarat added. He provided no statistics on the previous years, but one study said that the murder rate in Jordan stood in 2006 at 1.74 per 100,000 people, which puts the figure that year at around 100 reported homicides. Turning to difficulties that challenge the courtroom’s work, Samarat said that judges, lawyers and the court’s administrative staff are not used to early court sessions, which results in delays or postponement of cases. The veteran judge said the future aim of the court is to speed up court proceedings on all cases so that “we would not waste the time and energy of citizens, judges, lawyers, forensic experts and the administrative branch that manages the courthouse”. On Tuesday, a Royal Decree was issued appointing Hisham Tal as president of the Court of Cassation and the Higher Judicial Council. In a letter to Tal, His Majesty King Abdullah called for developing all judicial apparatuses. “In this context, we stress the need to proceed with plans to maintain and develop the facilities of the judiciary and supportive apparatuses. Components of the judicial system should have access to each other and should be strengthened with qualified and experienced personnel,” he said. “The principle of specialization should be adopted in all judicial fields so that judges are enabled to rule on cases they are specialized in,” he added.

LEBANON (Top)

17 May 2012 Now Lebanon Hezbollah’s Khalil: Tripoli’s Events Due to ‘Sectarian Tension’ Hajj Hussein al-Khalil, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah’s political aide, said in remarks published on Thursday that the latest events which rocked the Lebanese city of Tripoli were due “to sectarian tension.” “[What happened in Tripoli] was the outcome of sectarian tension – stirred by some factions [in Lebanon] whether [intentionally or not],” Khalil told Al-Liwaa newspaper. “If we want a vital solution for all these internal problems and security setbacks, then [every political group] is required to refrain from [any] language [that whips up] sectarian [sentiments] and provokes [others].” Khalil added that Hezbollah “does not possess information about what happened in Tripoli and [regarding the case of] Shadi al-Mawlawi, other than that which is in the hands of the relevant security agencies.” Asked about Hezbollah’s relation with Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Khalil said the two were contacting each other continuously.

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As for Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) leader MP Walid Jumblatt, Khalil said: “As it is known, we disagree with [Jumblatt] on a number of issues and agree with him on others. [Moreover], regular meetings take place between [Hezbollah and the PSP].” Deadly clashes broke out on Saturday in Tripoli between Islamists and the army as young demonstrators, sympathizers of the revolt in Syria, tried to approach the offices of the pro-President Bashar al-Assad Syrian Social Nationalist Party. The clashes followed the arrest of Lebanese citizen Shadi al-Mawlawi by General Security. After his arrest, 100 young men blocked the northern and southern roads into Tripoli. The ensuing sectarian clashes left nine people dead and some 50 wounded. Asked about the issue of the system of proportional representation, Khalil told Al-Liwaa: “Proportionality does not treat any [party] unjustly, [since] every group [regardless of its size] can be represented in the parliament.” Lebanese parties are currently debating the electoral law for the upcoming 2013 parliamentary elections. After the parliament agreed on drafting a law based on proportional representation, some parties, including the PSP, rejected the proposed law and called for adopting the 2009 electoral law, which is based on the 1960 simple majority representation law.

17 May 2012 The Daily Star Mikati Orders Security Forces to Erect Checkpoints in Tripoli and Arrest Armed Men Prime Najib Minister Mikati ordered security forces Thursday to erect checkpoints in Tripoli, north Lebanon, and arrest anyone carrying arms in public. Mikati's move comes after a 13-year-old boy was killed and at least four people were wounded by sniper fire Thursday morning. Throughout the morning, the Lebanese Army responded to sporadic sniper fire in several neighborhoods of Tripoli as tensions remained high following three days of bloody clashes. Three rocket-propelled grenades were fired on Syria Street separating the rival neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen neighborhoods. The majority of snipers are located in the Talaat al-Omari area, situated between the rival neighborhoods. Social Affairs Minister Wael Abu Faour, also the head of the Higher Council for Childhood, said the council was following up with events in Tripoli with “great concern and discontent,” with regards to clashes claiming the lives of innocent children. “Keeping children away from armed clashes and protecting them from its repercussions is a moral and legal duty stipulated by the international convention for children's human rights ... and Vienna convention,” Abu Faour said in a statement. He urged rival forces to immediately cease fire and create a “peaceful environment needed for the psychological, social and health developments of children.”

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The fighting erupted after an Islamist supporter of the Syrian opposition, Shadi Mawlawi, 25, was arrested Saturday and accused of belonging to a "terrorist organization." Mawlawi’s controversial arrest sparked three-day clashes in Tripoli between opponents and supporters of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Especially galling to Mawlawi's supporters was that General Security personnel dressed in civilian clothes lured him to a social services center belonging to Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi with promises of medical care, only to arrest him. His arrest also prompted families of Islamist prisoners to hold a sit-in in Nour Square, also known as Abdel-Hamid Karami Square, demanding the swift trial or release of their relatives. Interior Minister Marwan Charbel announced Thursday that Mawlawi would be reinterrogated in the presence of his lawyers, who were not allowed to attend the initial session. Charbel had said Wednesday that he reached a settlement with the families of prisoners after promising them speedy trials to finalize outstanding cases of more than 300 prisoners. The prisoners were arrested on charges of fighting or aiding fighters during the 2007 armed clashes between the Lebanese Army and the Palestinian militant group Fatah al-Islam in the refugee camp of Nahr al-Bared, in the north of the country. 16 May 2012 Naharnet March 14 Blames Syria for Tripoli Clashes, Demands Arab, Intl’ Aid to Control Lebanese-Syrian Border

Unclassified The March 14 General Secretariat condemned on Wednesday the recent clashes in Tripoli, accusing Syria of being behind the unrest as it is seeking to spread its crisis to Lebanon. It said in a statement after its weekly meeting: “The unrest was sparked at the order of Syrian President Bashar Assad in order create violence in Lebanon and the region in response to his collapse on the internal scene.”

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It also accused Assad of seeking to portray Tripoli as a terrorist hub in order to tarnish the image of its residents who have supported the Syrian revolt and harbored Syrian refugees. Furthermore, the general secretariat condemned the manner in which the General Security Department lured Shadi al-Mawlawi to an office of Finance Minister Mohammed Safadi’s welfare association where he was soon arrested. It said: “It is clear that this manner of conduct was aimed at provoking those concerned to force them to retaliate in a way that would not be easily contained.” Clashes ensued between the rival Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen neighborhoods in Tripoli in light of al-Mawlawi’s arrest, leaving nine dead and at least 50 wounded. The March 14 forces demanded that a transparent investigation be launched in the arrest, urging all sides involved in the clashes to exercise restraint. It hoped that the army would enter all areas that witnessed clashes and to deal with the perpetrators “without discrimination.” Moreover, it noted that the clashes served as a reminder of the problem of the spread of illegitimate arms in Lebanon, demanding that Lebanon be stripped of all illegal weapons “in order for normal and democratic life to be restored.” Addressing the various security incidents that have taken place along the Lebanese-Syrian border and the infiltration of Syrian troops into Lebanese border towns, the general secretariat said that the violations have demonstrated the “powerlessness” of the state and security agencies in protecting the border. The March 14 General Secretariat therefore demanded the aid of the Arab and international communities to this end, in accordance with United Nations Security Council resolutions 1550, 1680, and 1701. 17 May 2012 Now Lebanon Two Lebanese Army Soldiers Wounded in Violence-Stricken Tripoli The National News Agency (NNA) reported on Thursday that two Lebanese army soldiers were wounded in the ongoing violence in the northern city of Tripoli. However, the report said the injuries were minor. In a separate report, the NNA said that intermittent shooting was heard on the Syria Street which separates Tripoli’s rival neighborhoods of Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tebbaneh. The report added that the sound of exploding rocket-propelled grenades was also heard in the area, but no injuries were reported. In another report, the NNA cited a medic at the Islamic Charitable Hospital in Tripoli as saying that eight wounded people were admitted to the hospital on Thursday morning, adding that the situation of two of them was critical. The report added that the Emergency and Relief agency in the Islamic Medical Association has recorded 39 injuries since the violence erupted in Tripoli, as it has also transferred 18 families to safe places.

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Deadly clashes broke out on Saturday in Tripoli between Islamists and the army as young demonstrators, sympathizers of the revolt in Syria, tried to approach the offices of the pro-President Bashar al-Assad Syrian Social Nationalist Party. The clashes followed the arrest of Lebanese citizen Mawlawi by the General Security at a social services center that belongs to Safadi. After his arrest, 100 young men blocked the northern and southern roads into Tripoli. The ensuing sectarian clashes left nine people dead and some 50 wounded. 17 May 2012 The Daily Star Berri says List of Assassination Targets Serious, Dangerous

(U) Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri listens to speeches during a session at the parliament in Beirut, Lebanon, and Thursday, April 19, 2012. (The Daily Star/Mohammad Azakir) Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said Wednesday that a reported list of figures targeted for assassination by extremist groups is dangerous, and voiced relief at the Lebanese army’s measures to restore security in Tripoli. “The list targeting a number of leaders and political figures by extremist parties is serious and dangerous and requires follow-up and vigilance,” Berri was quoted by MPs as saying following the weekly Parliamentary meeting. Berri’s remarks came after two reports by local media published Wednesday indicated a list with names of potential targets for assassination. The list included Berri's name. One report published by An-Nahar said that “a number of countries informed political figures including Berri that extremist individuals entered Lebanon to assassinate a number of figures.” Earlier this year, media reports said that Ashraf Rifi, the head of the Internal Security Forces, and Wissam al-Hasan, the chief of the Internal Security Force’s Information Branch, were the possible targets of a plot. The reports prompted the ISF to enact emergency measures around its headquarters in the neighborhood of Ashrafieh. Security sources said that the reported plot might have targeted Rifi or Hasan because they regularly use the road between the Hotel Dieu Hospital and ISF headquarters. During his talk with parliamentarians, Berri also touched on the three-day clashes in Tripoli between supporters and opponents of President Bashar Assad that left at least seven dead and 100 wounded.

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Berri expressed satisfaction over the measures taken by the Lebanese army in the city. On Tuesday, the Lebanese army heavily deployed in the city's conflict zones, particularly in the rival neighborhoods of Bab al-Tabbaneh and Jabal Mohsen. He urged everyone to facilitate the tasks of the military which everyone unanimously agrees should be deployed to preserve security and stability in the capital of the north. 17 May 2012 The Daily Star Syrian Opposition Faces Fractures, Infighting A key activist group threatened Thursday to withdraw from Syria's main opposition umbrella grouping, saying the council has drifted away from the spirit of the Syrian revolution. A pullout by the Local Coordination Committees from the Syrian National Council would be a blow for the group, which is already facing political and organizational challenges in its quest to oust President Bashar Assad. And if the SNC continues to deteriorate, it could complicate efforts for the West and others to get behind the opposition. Fifteen months into the uprising, Syria's opposition is still struggling to overcome infighting and inexperience, preventing the movement from gaining the traction it needs to present a credible alternative to Assad. Its international backers have repeatedly appealed for the movement to pull together and work as one unit. The SNC, whose members are largely Syrian exiles, has tried with little success to gather the opposition under its umbrella and has alienated minorities inside Syria, including the Kurds and Alawites. Other opposition groups accuse it of trying to monopolize power. Several prominent dissidents, including Haitham al-Maleh and Kamal al-Labwani, have already quit the SNC, calling it an "autocratic" organization. In Thursday's statement, the LCC - a network of activists based both inside and outside of Syria - accused the SNC leadership of marginalizing council members and acting alone on major decisions. It threatened to suspend its membership in the council and later withdraw altogether if its concerns are not addressed. "We have seen nothing except political incompetence in the SNC and a total lack of consensus between its vision and that of the revolutionaries," the statement said. The LCC said the council has "drifted away from the spirit of the Syrian revolution in its quest for a civil and democratic state based on the principles of transparency and transfer of power." Earlier this week, Burhan Ghalioun was re-elected to a third, 3-month term as head of the SNC. A Sunni Muslim professor at the Sorbonne in Paris who has led the council since its formation in September, he has been criticized by some opposition figures of being too close to the Muslim Brotherhood and of being out of touch with the reality on the ground in Syria. Ghalioun ran against George Sabra, a Christian council member seen by many as a better choice to soothe concerns by Syria's religious minorities, some of whom have remained loyal to Assad out of fear for their future in case his regime collapses.

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In a televised interview following his re-election, Ghalioun acknowledged divisions within the SNC and said the group was working on a new strategy. Unlike Libya's National Transitional Council, which brought together most factions against Moammar Gadhafi's regime and was quickly recognized by much of the international community, Syria's opposition has no leadership on the ground and has not been officially recognized by significant powers. A conference sponsored by the Arab League in Cairo to help unite the disparate opposition was canceled this week, largely because of infighting between various groups. 17 May 2012 Asharq Al-Awsat FSA: Hezbollah Fighters in Syria, Carrying out Raids As the Syrian military continued to shell various areas of the country yesterday, Free Syrian Army [FSA] sources informed Asharq Al-Awsat that Lebanese kill-squads affiliated to Hezbollah had entered Syrian territory, specifically the al-Qasir region, close to the Lebanese border. FSA commander of Homs, Colonel Qasim Saad al-Din, revealed that Hezbollah forces raided several villages in Al-Qasir, including Al-Safsafah, Al-Masriyah, Al-Sawadiyah, Mutribah, and Zaytah. He stressed “these forces arrested 37 Syrians, including women, and also erected roadblocks at the entry point of each of these villages.” The FSA commander asserted that the Hezbollah fighters entered these areas accompanied by Syrian security forces, adding that there were a total of around 200 Hezbollah fighters, divided into 20 separate groups, in the al-Qasir region yesterday. He also claimed that the Hezbollah fighters had illegally entered Syria via Shiite border villages known to be loyal to the Lebanese organization. Colonel Saad-al-Din asserted that “we have received information from the villages and from the FSA confirming that they identified them [the Hezbollah fighters] from their accents and clothes, whilst they were also accompanied by elements speaking Farsi.” He added “so far, they have carried out arrests and raided houses…injuring several people.” He also claimed that Hezbollah forces had previously aided and supported al-Assad regime forces in Syria, saying “they were present in more than one area in the Rif Dimashq governorate, as well as the western and southern Homs governorate. They were also present in large numbers in Al-Zabadani." For his part, FSA spokesman Colonel Khalid al-Hammoud informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the FSA is in possession of information confirming the presence of Hezbollah elements and fighters in Syria. He stressed that “Hezbollah elements are primarily deployed in the Al-Qasir area and the surrounding villages in the Homs countryside, as well as in Al-Zabadani, Rankus, and Madaya in the Rif Dimashq governorate, as these areas are close to the Lebanese borders and they allow the Hezbollah elements to easily enter and leave the country.” He added “there are also Iranian specialists present in the northern areas [of Syria] close to the Turkish borders who have set-up operation rooms…in order to intercept the telephone calls of activists and FSA members." Colonel Khalid al-Hammoud claimed that “the Hezbollah elements' role is confined to sniper operations, whilst the Iranian specialists’ tasks include training, communication operations and uncovering activists.”

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17 May 2012 The Daily Star Hezbollah says Solution to Spending Crisis with Sleiman, Mikati

(U) A Hezbollah flag is flying from the border fence with Israel in the southern village of Kfar Kila as Israeli soldiers stand guard in Metula, Friday, May 11, 2012. (The Daily Star/Mohammed Zaatari) Hezbollah Chief Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah’s chief political aide said in remarks published Thursday that the president and prime minister hold the key to resolving the Cabinet’s spending crisis, and added that the recent events in Tripoli were a result of heightened sectarian rhetoric. In an interview with Al-Liwaa, Hussein Khalil said: “There are two solutions to the spending crisis: the first is in Parliament, where the path to it was disrupted, and the second is in the hands of the executive branch -- the presidency and the premiership.” Khalil also held the Cabinet, Prime Minister Najib Mikati and President Michel Sleiman responsible for finding a solution to the spending crisis in order to facilitate the work of the government. The Cabinet has failed to agree on a means to retroactively authorize LL8.9 trillion in overspending, plunging the country into a financial crisis. Sleiman refuses to sign a decree to legalize the amount after it failed to win consensus in Parliament. He has instead urged the Cabinet to pass a revised draft law tackling the LL8.9 trillion in extra-budgetary spending, but March 8 ministers insist the proposal is unconstitutional and that the president sign the decree. Finance Minister Mohammad Safadi has refused to allocate further funds to the government until it either approves overspending or sets the 2012 state budget. However, the Cabinet approved the release of emergency funds for the army and police Wednesday. Khalil also spoke about the recent events in Tripoli, north of Lebanon, between supporters and opponents of the Syrian government that left at least seven dead and over 100 wounded. “What happened was a result of sectarian incitement which some parties adopted without even knowing the consequences and its negative repercussions on the country, its stability and civil peace,” the Hezbollah figure said. He added that for the country to resolve domestic issues and put an end to recurring security breaches, all parties must distance their political speech from what he described as “sectarian and provocative rhetoric.”

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In response to a question about Hezbollah’s relationship with Mikati, Khalil said that the resistance party does not regret the post of prime minister in 2011 and that no one is immune to mistakes. As for the party’s alliance with MP Michel Aoun, Khalil said: “The [former] general is our ally, he represents the largest portion of the Christian community, he is the head of the biggest bloc in Cabinet and he is an important point of reference; these factors should be taken into account on all political, administrative and organizational levels.” The House committee report noted that the United States will have put $900 million into the Iron Dome system if the full $680 million is used on the program “yet the United States has no rights to the technology involved.” It added that Missile Defense Agency Director Lt. Gen. Patrick J. O’Reilly should explore opportunities to enter into a joint production arrangement with Israel for future Iron Dome batteries “in light of the significant investment in this system.” So here is the United States, having added to its own deficit by spending funds that it must borrow, helping to procure a missile defense system for Israel, which faces the threat but supposedly can’t pay for it alone. To add insult to injury, Pentagon officials must ask the Israeli government-owned company that is profiting from the weapons sales — including Iron Dome — if the United States can have a piece of the action. 16 May 2012 Al Manar Sayyed Nasrallah Receives PFLP-GC Head, Delegation Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah received on Tuesday the Secretary General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command, Ahmad Jibril, and his deputy Secretary-General Talal Naji, in addition to an accompanying delegation from the front. The meeting was in the presence of the Head of Hezbollah’s Political Council Sayyed Ibrahim Amin al- Sayyed. The meeting tackled the latest political developments in the region, especially in Palestine, Lebanon and Syria, a statement issued by Hezbollah’s media relations said indicating that the viewpoints were identical on different issues. “Both sides underlined the depth and firmness of their relationship, especially in the face of all current developments,” said the statement.

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(U) Nasrallah meets PFLP Delegation

SYRIA (Top) 17 May 2012 Now Lebanon Live Blog on Developments in Syria 13:11 Syrian forces on Thursday killed 10 people; Al-Arabiya television quoted the Local Coordination Committees as saying. 12:30 The Local Coordination Committees (LCC), a network of activists on the ground in Syria, threatened Thursday to pull out of opposition bloc the Syrian National Council over its "monopolization" of power. 12:09 There is still no agreement among leaders of the world's richest nations on the final text of a declaration that will touch upon the protracted conflict in Syria, a Kremlin advisor said Thursday. 11:22 Four people were killed on Thursday in Syria; most of them in the area of Daraya near Damascus, Al-Jazeera television quoted the Local Coordination Committees as saying. 11:16 Regime forces sent shells crashing into rebel stronghold Rastan during the night, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, while calling on UN observers to rush to the town in central Homs province. 8:30 MORNING LEADER: Syrian forces were accused Wednesday of summarily executing 15 civilians, as members of a UN team of observers were evacuated from a shelled town the day after a bomb blast hit their convoy. 7:30 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is "doomed," Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Wednesday, urging the international community to increase pressure on his embattled regime. 17 May 2012 Al Arabiya Elections Show Syrians Back the Regime’: Assad says in Interview

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17 May 2012

Unclassified Syrians showed in elections this month that they support the government’s policy of reform and a majority of them back the regime, President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview broadcasted on Wednesday. The results of the May 7 legislative poll revealed that the Syrian people “are until now supporting the policy of reform” and “support the institutions of the state”, Assad told Russia’s Rossia-24 state news channel. Assad, whose regime has been engaged in a bloody standoff with opposition rebels, lashed out at “threats of terrorists” which he said were aimed at preventing the elections from taking place. “The Syrian people are not scared of the threats of terrorists who have tried to wreck the elections or even prevent us from holding them,” he added. Voters’ turnout was 51.26 percent, Syrian officials have said. However, only limited results of these elections have been released. Assad described the elections as a “very important step” and “part of the reforms that we started around a year ago”. “The polling stations show the opinion of the people. It is a serious message for everyone both inside the country and also beyond its borders,” he added. Assad complained that since the arrival of U.N. observers monitoring the Annan plan there had been a reduction in “direct confrontation” between the two sides but an increase in “terrorist attacks”. Accusing the West of ignoring opposition violence, he said: “The West only talks about violence, violence on the government side. There is not a word about the terrorists. We are still waiting.” He said Annan was due again in Syria this month. “I will ask him what this is about.” Assad denounced the armed opposition as a gang of “criminals” who he said contained religious extremists including members of Al-Qaeda. “It is not an army and it is not free,” he said, referring to the opposition Free Syrian Army that is fighting the regime. “They get money and weapons from abroad from various countries. It is a group of criminals who have for years broken the law and received convictions. There are also religious extremists there like from Al-Qaeda.” Assad said that many “foreign mercenaries” from Arab countries fighting for the opposition had been killed but others were still alive.

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“They have been captured and we are preparing to show them to the world,” he said, without giving further details. He also repeated claims first in Serbian media and repeated by Russia that members of the armed opposition were travelling to Kosovo in order to gain experience from former fighters there. Talking about the newly elected French President, Bashar al-Assad said he hoped the election of Socialist President Francois Hollande in France will lead to a change in French policy toward his country. Assad’s interview took place while fifteen civilians were “summarily executed” by regime forces in a neighborhood of the central Syrian city of Homs overnight, and as many as sixteen people have been killed by Syrian forces across the country. Earlier, the Syrian National Council (SNC) issued a statement accusing forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad of committing a “new massacre” in Khan Sheikhoun town in Idlib. The SNC underlined that the international peace plan has been violated in most of the Syrian cities “from Azzaz in Aleppo to Dael to al-Harak and Kharbat al-Ghazala in Deraa as well as Damascus suburbs, Baniyas, Homs, Hama, Idlib and Deir Ezzor. 17 May 2012 Al Jazeera Iran 'Sending Arms to Syria despite Ban'

(U) The UN Security Council has deployed a team of observers to Syria to monitor the tenuous ceasefire [EPA] Syria remains the top destination for Iranian arms shipments, in violation of a UN Security Council ban on weapons exports by the Islamic Republic, according to a confidential report. The report, submitted by a panel of sanctions-monitoring experts to the Security Council's Iran sanctions committee, said the panel investigated three large illegal shipments of Iranian weapons over the past year. Iran, like Russia, is one of Syria's few allies as it presses ahead with a 14-month-old assault on opposition forces determined to topple Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

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The report comes as Tehran and the UN International Atomic Energy Agency try to narrow their differences on how to tackle concerns over Iran's atomic programme, and as Iran prepares for talks with the five permanent Security Council members and Germany in Iraq next week. The report was leaked to the Reuters news agency hours after an article appeared in the Washington Post revealing how Syrian opposition fighters battling Assad's government are beginning to receive more, and better, weapons in an effort paid for by Gulf nations and coordinated partly by the US. The article cited opposition activists and US and foreign officials, detailing how the administration has expanded contacts with opposition military forces to provide the Gulf nations with assessments of fighters' credibility and command-and-control infrastructure, the paper reported. "We are increasing our nonlethal assistance to the Syrian opposition, and we continue to co-ordinate our efforts with friends and allies in the region and beyond in order to have the biggest impact on what we are collectively doing," a senior US state department official told the Post. Illegal shipments The panel on Iran said of the three shipments that it had investigated: "Iran has continued to defy the international community through illegal arms shipments. "Two of these cases involved [Syria], as were the majority of cases inspected by the Panel during its previous mandate, underscoring that Syria continues to be the central party to illicit Iranian arms transfers." The third shipment involved rockets that Britain said last year were headed for Taliban fighters in Afghanistan. "The panel recommends the designation [blacklisting] of two entities related to these interdictions," it said. "The report also takes note of information concerning arms shipments by Iran to other destinations." The kinds of arms that Iran was attempting to send to Syria before the shipments were seized by Turkish authorities included assault rifles, machine guns, explosives, detonators, 60mm and 120mm mortal shells and other items, the panel said. The most recent incident described in the report was an arms shipment discovered in a truck that Turkey seized on its border with Syria in February. Turkey announced last year that it was imposing an arms embargo on Syria. Diplomats said that the panel's draft report may be changed by the Security Council's Iran sanctions committee before it was submitted to the council itself for consideration. It was unclear how long it would take the committee to pass the report to the Security Council. Last year's expert panel report on Iran was never made public because Russia blocked its publication. Circumventing sanctions The report also discusses Iran's attempts to circumvent sanctions on its nuclear programme but notes that the four rounds of punitive measures the 15-nation Security Council imposed on Iran between 2006 and 2010 are having an impact. In-depth coverage of a growing regional debate

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"Sanctions are slowing Iran's procurement of some critical items required for its prohibited nuclear program," it said. "At the same time prohibited activities continue, including uranium enrichment." Among the items Iran has attempted to procure for its nuclear programme, the panel said, were nuclear-grade graphite, high-strength aluminum, aluminum, powder, specialized alloys, managing steel, carbon fiber, magnets, vacuum pumps, turbines, electrical switchboards and helium gas detectors. "The panel identifies the acquisition of high-grade carbon fiber as one of a number of critical items Iran requires for the development of more advanced centrifuges," the report said, adding that nations should be on alert for illicit attempts to acquire such items. Iran rejects allegations by Western nations and their allies that it is secretly developing the capability to produce nuclear weapons. It has refused to suspend its enrichment programme as demanded by the Security Council despite being hit with increasingly strong UN and various national sanctions. 16 May 2012 Al Bawaba Assad: Syrians Support Me The Syrian president Bashar al-Assad said he hoped the new French president Francois Hollande would think about the interests of France and change its policy toward Syria and the region. He made these comments in an interview broadcast Wednesday on Rossia 24 TV. "I hope the new president will think about the interests of France. I'm sure he does not want to continue to wreak havoc in the Middle East and throughout the Arab world," Assad said, adding that Paris was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands in Libya. The Syrian leader also said the 7 May elections have shown that the people support the regime and has not succumbed to the threat of "terrorists.” "The elections show that the majority of Syrians support the regime" he said, adding the Syrian "continue to support the path of reform" and were "not afraid from terrorists' threats," 17 May 2012 Al Arabiya Election Results Show Syrians Support the Regime, says Assad

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(U) Bashar al-Assad, whose regime has been engaged in a bloody standoff with opposition rebels, lashed out at “threats of terrorists” which he said were aimed at preventing the elections from taking place. Legislative elections in Syria this month showed a majority support for the regime and the government’s policy of reform, embattled Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said in an interview broadcasted on Wednesday. The results of the May 7 poll revealed that the Syrian people “are until now supporting the policy of reform” and “support the institutions of the state,” Assad told Russia’s Rossia-24 state news channel. Assad, whose regime has been engaged in a bloody standoff with opposition rebels, lashed out at “threats of terrorists” which he said were aimed at preventing the elections from taking place. “The Syrian people are not scared of the threats of terrorists who have tried to wreck the elections or even prevent us from holding them,” he added. Voter turnout was 51.26 percent, Syrian officials have said. However, only limited results of these elections have been released. Assad described the elections as a “very important step” and “part of the reforms that we started around a year ago.” “The polling stations show the opinion of the people. It is a serious message for everyone both inside the country and also beyond its borders,” he added. Assad complained that since the arrival of U.N. observers monitoring the Annan plan there had been a reduction in “direct confrontation” between the two sides but an increase in “terrorist attacks.” Assad also said that countries that “sow chaos” in Syria could suffer from it themselves. “For the leaders of these countries, it’s becoming clear that this is not ‘Spring’ but chaos, and as I have said, if you sow chaos in Syria you may be infected by it yourself, and they understand this perfectly well,” Assad said, referring to the Arab Spring that toppled long-entrenched leaders in the Middle East. Assad said Western sanctions are affecting Syria’s economy but Damascus has a “wonderful relationship” with non-Western countries, according to state-run Rossiya-24’s translation of his remarks.

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Accusing the West of ignoring opposition violence, he said: “The West only talks about violence, violence on the government side. There is not a word about the terrorists. We are still waiting.” He said Annan was due again in Syria this month. “I will ask him what this is about.” Assad denounced the armed opposition as a gang of “criminals” who he said contained religious extremists including members of al-Qaeda. “It is not an army and it is not free,” he said, referring to the opposition Free Syrian Army that is fighting the regime. “They get money and weapons from abroad from various countries. It is a group of criminals who have for years broken the law and received convictions. There are also religious extremists there like from al-Qaeda.” Assad said that many “foreign mercenaries” from Arab countries fighting for the opposition had been killed but others were still alive. “They have been captured and we are preparing to show them to the world,” he said, without giving further details. He also repeated claims first in Serbian media and repeated by Russia that members of the armed opposition were travelling to Kosovo in order to gain experience from former fighters there. Talking about the newly elected French President, Bashar al-Assad said he hoped the election of Socialist President Francois Hollande in France will lead to a change in French policy toward his country. Assad’s interview took place while fifteen civilians were “summarily executed” by regime forces in a neighborhood of the central Syrian city of Homs overnight, and as many as sixteen people have been killed by Syrian forces across the country. Earlier, the Syrian National Council (SNC) issued a statement accusing forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad of committing a “new massacre” in Khan Sheikhoun town in Idlib. The SNC underlined that the international peace plan has been violated in most of the Syrian cities “from Azzaz in Aleppo to Dael to al-Harak and Kharbat al-Ghazala in Deraa as well as Damascus suburbs, Baniyas, Homs, Hama, Idlib and Deir Ezzor. 16 May 2012 The Daily Star Lebanese, Syrian Hostages Released in Swap

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(U) Lebanese Abdullah Zein, center, poses with his relatives after his release in the border village of al-Qasr, Lebanon, Wednesday, May 16, 2012. (The Daily Star/Ali Jaafar) Lebanese and Syrian citizens caught up in a tit-for-tat kidnapping linked to the Syria crisis were released Wednesday. “All the hostages have been freed,” former Lebanese mayor of the border village of al-Qasr Dr. Ali Zeaiter, who mediated the swap deal, told The Daily Star. He was referring to Lebanese Khodr Jaafar, Abdullah Zein and Ahmad Medlej as well as some 32 Syrian men taken hostage by pro-Syrian Lebanese in the hope of exchanging them for the three Lebanese men. Jaafar, Zein and Medlej were kidnapped Thursday in the border village of Zeita, some two kilometers from the Syrian border and 15 kilometers north of Hermel, by Syrian opposition members who belong to a clan which accused the three of facilitating the arrest of a rebel by Syrian intelligence agents. Zeita is a small border town of mainly Lebanese inhabitants which lies in Syrian territory. Zeiter said the men were released between Zeita and nearby Saqarja. "What I did was a humanitarian act," Zeiter said proudly. A security source had told The Daily Star that pro-Assad Lebanese men were holding 60 Syrian workers hostage Sunday. The discrepancy regarding the number of Syrian captives indicates that the hostage-takers had apparently freed half of them earlier.

REGIONAL EDITORIALS (Top)

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16 May 2012 Asharq Al-Awsat Islamists Seeking Pardon for Terror Convicts, Egyptian Official By Abdul Sattar Hatita An Egyptian government official informed Asharq Al-Awsat that the country’s Islamists are seeking to develop legislation pardoning all those convicted and accused in terrorism-related cases, adding that should such legislation pass through parliament this would benefit hundreds of dangerous criminals, including criminals convicted in terror cases with no political aspects or features. The Egyptian official claimed that the Islamists true objective is to secure the release of approximately 37 leaders and cadres of the Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya group and the Egyptian Islamic Jihad [EIJ] group who have been sentenced to death or life imprisonment, or whose cases are still in the process of being tried. Egyptian parliamentary sources revealed that the Islamist Building and Development Party – the political wing of the Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, which is an organization that carried out numerous terrorist attacks against the state in the 1980s and 1990s –has put forward a draft proposal for a comprehensive pardon for all those accused in terrorism-related crimes during the era of former president Mubarak – and even prior to this – from 1976 to the fall of the Mubarak regime on 11 February, 2011. The source added that Egypt’s parliamentary Committee on Constitutional and Legislative Affairs yesterday witnessed sharp division within its ranks over this issue whilst the Egyptian government, represented by Deputy Minister of Justice for Legislative Affairs, Omar al-Sherif, comprehensively rejected this amendment, as did leftist and Coptic MPs, after it was revealed this pardon would include figures who have been convicted in terror cases against civilians, private properties and churches. The Egyptian government objected to a pardon for people convicted according to Article 86 of the Egyptian Penal Code. Whilst Egypt’s Karama Party MP Saad Abboud – also a member of the parliamentary Committee on Constitutional and Legislative Affairs – informed Asharq Al-Awsat that there are fears that this pardon would include those who had been involved in terrorist attacks on churches. Egyptian Deputy Justice Minister Omar al-Sherif stressed that Article 86 of the penal code applies to any cases of state terrorism and therefore seeking a pardon of anybody convicted under this article represents over-excessiveness on the part of the Building and Development Party which only wants to secure the release of 36 individuals imprisoned by the former regime for their political views and opposition activity. Article 86 of Egypt’s penal code defines terrorism as “any use of force of violence or any threat or intimidation to which the perpetrator resorts in order to disturb the peace or jeopardize the safety and security of society and of such nature as to harm or create fear in persons or imperil the lives, freedoms or security; harm the environment; damage or take possession of communications; prevent or impede the public authorities in the performance of their work; or thwart the application of the Constitution or of laws or regulations.” Karama Party MP Saad Abboud stressed that he had voted against this pardon, stressing the need to find a way to pardon Islamists convicted or accused in terrorism-related cases. As for the actual number of people who have been convicted under Article 86 of the Egyptian penal code, Abboud told Asharq Al-Awsat that more than the 36 Islamists whose release the Building and Development party is seeking to secure could benefit from this pardon, thereby harming Egyptian security and stability. He said that the Egyptian government had not provided the definitive number of people convicted in such cases, adding “we do not have specific figures at this time, and we do not know whether this is in the hundreds or thousands.” MP Saad Abboud also told Asharq Al-Awsat “Along with a number of other MPs in the parliamentary Committee, I said that we should hold off issuing a law pardoning convicts in terror-related chases…I believe that the more

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practical solution would be for the Egyptian Supreme Council of the Armed Forces [SCAF] to issue a pardon for these 37 Islamists only, on the grounds that they are political prisoners.” He added “the person who put forward this proposal could have waited until after the president was elected, but this did not happen due to their urgency.” For her part, Coptic MP Suzy Adly Nashed also revealed that she had opposed the pardon for those convicted under Article 86 of the Egyptian penal code, stressing that such figures had been convicted on terrorism charges for targeting tourism companies and religious sites, including Coptic churches. She added that despite the noble goal of “securing a pardon for 37 Islamists who have been unjustly convicted and imprisoned – and we support them wholeheartedly– it is not permissible to set certain rules for certain figures, in order to ensure that we are not accused of having double standards with regards to the law.” She also asserted that both Muslims and Christians had been killed at the hands of terrorists over the years, including the victims of the al-Qiddissin Church bombing in Alexandria last year, as well as the killing of former Egyptian Islamic Endowment Minister Sheikh Hussein al-Zahabi in 1977. 17 May 2012 Arab News When will Annan Admit Failure? By Tariq Alhomayed Utilizing diplomatic language, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal stated that confidence in Kofi Annan’s mission in Syria “has started to decrease quickly.” To be more explicit, this means that Annan’s mission has failed, which is precisely what was expected since the beginning. This does not disparage Annan himself, as we have stated repeatedly, for this failure is due to the Assad regime’s lack of credibility, not just today but over decades of rule, throughout the rule of Assad the father and Assad the son! There is much evidence regarding the Assad regime’s lack of credibility, and it is easy enough to observe this, but let us look at a present-day example, namely, the statement issued by the Turkish journalist who the Assad regime released after he was held for two months. Journalist Adem Ozkose, writer for Turkey’s Milat newspaper, revealed that he was on board the Turkish (Mavi Marmara) aid flotilla that was heading to the Gaza Strip in 2010 and was detained — along with other activists — on the ship by Israeli forces, and later held in an Israeli detention center. The Turkish journalist described the Israeli detention center as being “five-star” in comparison to the Syrian jail where he was held, adding that over the two months he spent in the Assad prison he would occasionally hear people crying out in anguish. The question that must be asked here is: What about the implementation of one of the points of Annan’s initiative, namely Assad releasing the detainees being held in his prisons? The answer to this is that there have been no releases, indeed detentions are on the rise! What is even worse than Assad’s prisons is the fact that his killing machine has not stopped until now, and the story as Prince Saud Al-Faisal said is not about reducing the number of people being killed, but the necessity of stopping the killing altogether, as well as Assad withdrawing his military forces from Syria’s streets. This is something that also did not occur, quite the opposition. In fact, we have seen reports verified by video recordings which reveal that Hezbollah elements are involved on the Syrian scene, providing support to the Assad regime forces in their operation to suppress the people of Syria.

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Prior to this, there were and remain Iranians on the scene in Syria, to the point that some sources and of course this is something that Annan and the international community must be aware of claim that there is an Iranian operations room in Damascus working to aid the Assad regime with regard to planning and coordination; this is not to mention Iran providing funds, arms and more to Assad! So after all this, can anybody claim that Annan’s efforts will bear fruit? Of course not! Here we see the UN is still unable to deliver the promised aid to approximately one million Syrians who are in dire need of this, and this is due to the Assad regime’s insistence that it must take over the distribution of this aid; this means that the Assad regime intends to pursue and punish the Syrians who are in need of assistance. If the Assad regime was concerned about the Syrian people in the first place the death toll would not have reached 12,000, and there would not be one million Syrians in need of assistance, this is not to mention the hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees who have sought sanctuary in neighboring countries. The reality is that Annan’s mission was dead on arrival and unfeasible, and it is the Syrian people who are paying the price for its failure today; indeed everybody is paying the price with every day that passes. This is because it is impossible for political missions to achieve anything with a regime such as the Assad regime. This is well known, and has been proven over time and by the facts on the ground: So when will Annan shoulder his moral responsibility and announce his mission’s failure? That is the question. 17 May 2012 The Daily Star Will Tripoli make Samir Geagea Pay? By Michael Young Among the less obvious victims of the fighting in Tripoli this past weekend was Samir Geagea. The head of the Lebanese Forces has made an alliance with the Sunnis a cornerstone of his electoral strategy next year, but suddenly many Christians saw, or thought they saw, that not a few of these partners were fearsome, bearded gunmen. The Syrians set a trap in Tripoli, and the city fell for it, as did a number of politicians in the March 14 alliance. When Shadi Mawlawi was arrested by the General Security directorate, the counter-reaction was predictable. Armed Islamists would descend into the streets demanding his release; fighting would begin between the Sunni quarter of Bab al-Tabbaneh and the mainly Alawite Jabal Mohsen; and suddenly Tripoli would resemble Kandahar, lending credence to the Syrian regime’s claim that it was fighting a coalition of “Salafist” forces both inside Syria and in neighboring Lebanon. The reality is somewhat different. While there is a good chance that northern Islamists have become more militant in the past year due to the Syrian uprising and the continued detention without trial of their comrades in Roumieh, Islamist groups in and around Tripoli, the Salafists among them, have traditionally been divided, not especially prosperous, and by and large opposed to jihadis. Indeed a number of Islamist groups are pro-Syrian. Upon closer look, the Islamist landscape in the north is complex and fractured. That won’t matter to Christian voters, though, who next year will determine, as they did in 2009, the makeup of the Lebanese Parliament, therefore of the state in the coming years. Hezbollah is maneuvering to shape the electoral aftermath in its favor. If President Bashar Assad falls (and no one can afford not to prepare), the party will protect itself by tightening its hold on national institutions. The only way it can do so is by ensuring that it controls a parliamentary majority, which would then select a compliant head of state.

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Michel Aoun imagines that he will be that head of state. Other politicians in Beirut are more dubious. They believe that General Jean Kahwagi, the Army commander, will be the anointed one. Before then, however, how might the legislative elections come out? Hezbollah supports a proportional system of representation, as Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah informed us last week. Their reasoning is that the principle of proportionality will take more seats away from March 14, the Future Movement in particular, and, implicitly, Walid Jumblatt, than it will from the Hezbollah-Aoun alliance. Not surprisingly, Jumblatt views the project as an existential threat, and if there is a vote in parliament to approve a proportional law, he and March 14 would probably have the numbers to defeat it. However, that wouldn’t substantially handicap Hezbollah. The party and its pro-Syrian partners will sweep seats in those electoral districts where Hezbollah dominates. Saad Hariri’s absence from Lebanon may pose further problems for the former prime minister’s lists in hitherto “safe” March 14 constituencies such as Beirut and Tripoli. But the big question is what will happen in those districts where Christian voters decide, and the picture there is far more convoluted. Geagea’s objective is to challenge Aoun’s primacy among Christians in terms of parliamentary representation. One facet of his plan is to place his candidates on strong Hariri lists in districts where the Sunni vote prevails or carries considerable weight. However, the Lebanese Forces leader must also devise a parallel approach allowing him to fare better than the Aounist in Mount Lebanon, because that is where the balance of power in Parliament may ultimately play out. A key electoral battlefield will be Baabda, where the Aoun-Hezbollah alliance will be difficult to beat. The Lebanese Forces have a presence in the area, but to gain ground they would need to persuade a large share of undecided Christian voters to back March 14 candidates. There are divisive issues to play on, not least a fear among Christians in the areas around the southern suburbs that they will soon succumb to the Shiite demographic expansion. Geagea is also wagering that Aoun has lost popularity in recent years, and that his failure to do anything in government will have turned many against him. Perhaps, but whichever way one cuts it, Aoun appears to retain the upper hand in Mount Lebanon because most of his potential opponents seem so anemic. In the Metn, Sami Gemayel and Michel Murr may pass, but unless Aoun manages to lose the large pro-Tashnag Armenian bloc of voters, it’s hard to see who else will be able to take seats from him. The same holds true in Jbeil, if Aoun enjoys a unified Shiite vote in his favor. The situation in Kesrouan is less clear. There are no hegemonic voting blocs in the district, amid suggestions that Geagea has made inroads into what had been a solidly pro-Aoun electorate. That could be true, but most of those likely to stand against the Aounist are not necessarily more credible, and do not enjoy the advantages of incumbency, therefore the power of patronage. The assassination attempt on Geagea’s life may have made voters wise to the infiltration of Hezbollah into Christian-majority areas – which is the message Geagea tried to get across – but will that matter at election time? The tension in Tripoli has made Christians pause. Between Sunni Islamists and Shiite Islamists, they are lost. Unless Samir Geagea can show that most Sunnis have nothing to do with the Islamist fringe, which requires less ambiguity from the Future Movement on incidents such as the Mawlawi arrest, the Lebanese Forces leader will find him on an uphill trek to garner Christian sympathy. 17 May 2012 Asharq Al-Awsat In Egypt's Vote, Revolutionaries Lack a Candidate

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A black smoke covered Cairo's Tahrir Square. Around a dozen protesters who had been holding a weeklong sit-in demanding an end to military rule had come to the conclusion their gathering was useless. So over the weekend, they splashed gas on their tents and banners, burned them to ashes and left. Last year, Tahrir was the icon on the revolution, where hundreds of thousands massed daily in the uprising that ousted longtime authoritarian ruler Hosni Mubarak in the name of democracy. Now, it has seen better days, dirty and littered with trash. Street vendors sell everything from sandwiches to socks during the day. At night, young men peddle hashish. Ahead of Egypt's historic election for a new president next week, Tahrir Square's woes reflect the disarray of the protest movement that called for a democratic transformation in the Arab world's most populous nation. The revolutionary leaders, largely secular and leftist, have no viable candidate in the race. Instead, the vote has boiled down to a choice between former members of Mubarak's regime, who the revolutionaries believe will keep the old system intact and will not challenge the military's grip on politics, and Islamists, who they worry will impose an equally authoritarian system but based on religion. The youth groups behind the revolution are left divided and muddled over the election and how to handle the post-election era. Some groups call for a boycott of the vote. Many in the movement believe that the real confrontations are still to come when they press their agenda on whatever new government emerges. But they are divided even on how to do that. Some question the reliance on protests since Mubarak's fall. Activists staged multiple protests in Tahrir the past year that repeatedly turned in to bloody clashes with police and the military. But they often failed to reach a unified list of demands or create a cohesive political movement. And the turmoil turned sections of the population against them, guided by a persistent military line that the protesters were to blame for chaos. "We are left with an orphaned revolution. The people don't know what the revolution wants to do," said Rami Sabri, a member of the Popular Socialist Alliance, a newly formed party. Support from Egyptians craving stability amid the turmoil and economic woes has vaulted two former regime figures to front-runner status — ex-foreign minister Amr Moussa and ex-prime minister Ahmed Shafiq. The latest polls have them slightly on top, though the polls' reliability is unknown. Religious constituencies have elevated two Islamists: the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi and a moderate, Abdel-Moneim Abolfotoh. The revolutionaries who intend to vote have been split. Some — including Wael Ghonim, the Google executive famed for his role in the Facebook page that helped launch the anti-Mubarak revolt — have backed Abolfotoh, drawn by his open views and strong backing for the uprising. Another favorite is the youngest of the 13 candidates, Khaled Ali, a labor activist known as "the lawyer for the poor." Ali is a distant underdog in the polls and has almost no chance of winning. But his candidacy is aimed at showing Egyptians that the revolution does have a face. "Give the revolution a chance to rule," the 40-year-old Ali proclaimed at a recent rally.

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17 May 2012

During the 18-day uprising that led to Mubarak's fall on Feb. 11, 2011, the protesters' slogan was "bread, freedom and dignity." Under that slogan, the revolutionaries had multiple calls for change. Security forces that formed the brutal basis for Mubarak's police state had to be reformed. A political system that ran on patronage and corruption had to be dismantled. The regime's grip on state media that controlled the agenda had to be lifted. The economy had to be reformed to benefit the large population of poor rather than rich elite. Long neglected infrastructure and dilapidated hospitals and schools had to be rebuilt. Freedom of speech, long muffled by the police, had to be unleashed. Over the past 15 months, however, almost none of that has been carried out. The military generals, who are all stalwarts of Mubarak's regime, took power after his fall and the bulk of Mubarak's system has remained. Most revolutionaries believe none of the top candidates will push for radical change. Ali, who helped organize labor protests in the early 2000s that were the first to call for Mubarak's ouster, has sought to set an agenda for the coming period. He calls for return of the public sector and state subsidies of the poor. But at the top of his campaign is "demilitarization" of the country. The military is infused through the system. It provided all of Egypt's four presidents. Former generals head many state institutions. Most governors come from army ranks. Laws enshrine the military's economic might — for example, giving it the priority over large swaths of land, some of which it leases out to cronies. All this will take pressure to uproot, Ali said recently in one of the many political TV talk shows. "Mubarak is not just a name; it is a system, policies and a network of interests. It will not go away without real confrontation." The military council dealt heavy blows to protesters the past year, with successive crackdowns that left dozens dead and others put on trial before military tribunals. Ahmed Fawzy, Ali's campaign manager, said the protests turned into "useless confrontations." "We have gone too far in these rallies. With protests every day, it lost value," he said. "People came to hate the revolution." The tactic did bring some successes. Over the months, protests forced the military to put Mubarak on trial and set a clearer timetable for handing over power. Also, many Egyptians recognize the elections wouldn't be taking place at all without the revolution. For the first time, Egyptians are fully engaged in politics. Private networks air daily debates and interviews with most of the 13 presidential candidates. In homes, workplaces, coffee shops, people are in heated discussions never seen before. Kamal Khalil, a leading leftist activist, says the continued protests swelled the number of "revolutionaries," and that this is a popular base for pressing demands for change in the future. "Egyptians are one thing before the revolution and another thing after. We used to have thousands of revolutionaries, but now we have tens of thousands," he told a recent gathering of a socialist group. As for the election, he dismissed it as a lot of fuss for nothing, using an Egyptian proverb.

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17 May 2012

"A lovely funeral," he said, "but held for a dog." 16 May 2012 Washington Post Is U.S. Going Above and Beyond for Israel? By Walter Pincus,

(U) Uriel Sinai/GETTY IMAGES - An Israeli missile is launched from the Iron Dome missile system in response to a rocket launch from the nearby Gaza Strip on March 12 near Ashdod, Israel. Should the United States put solving Israel’s budget problems ahead of its own? When it comes to defense spending, it appears that the United States already is. Ehud Barak, Israel’s defense minister, will meet Thursday in Washington with Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta to finalize a deal in which the United States will provide an additional $680 million to Israel over three years. The money is meant to help pay for procuring three or four new batteries and interceptors for Israel’s Iron Dome short-range rocket defense program. The funds may also be used for the systems after their deployment, according to the report of the House Armed Services Committee on the fiscal 2013 Defense Authorization bill. The Iron Dome funds, already in legislation before Congress, will be on top of the $3.1 billion in military aid grants being provided to Israel in 2013 and every year thereafter through 2017. That deal is part of a 10-year memorandum of understanding agreed to in 2007 during the George W. Bush presidency. “Those funds are already committed to existing large-ticket purchases, such as the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, C-130J transport planes and other items,” according to George Little, spokesman for Panetta. He also said the Israelis had increased their own spending on Iron Dome this year and the U.S. funds are to “augment” their funding.

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17 May 2012

And there’s more money involved. The House committee version of the defense authorization bill, up for debate on the House floor this week, includes another $168 million “requested by [the] Government of Israel to meet its security requirements,” according to the panel’s report. This money is to be added to three other missile defense systems that have been under joint development by the United States and Israel. The $168 million is in addition to another $99.9 million requested by the Obama administration for those programs. Israel has had its own debate over what its defense budget should fund. Given its economic problems, the country has cut its defense budget for this year by roughly 5 percent, with another 5 percent cut planned for next year. Its defense experts have debated whether it was more important to put scarce funds into offensive weapons that could destroy enemy missiles or into missile defense systems to protect civilian and military targets. In contrast to the United States, it has also raised taxes on wealthier citizens and upped its corporate tax rate. The Israeli military has long-term plans to deploy 13 to 14 Iron Dome batteries to defend military and civilian targets against rockets launched from Gaza and Lebanon. If there is any doubt that the U.S. Congress will continue to support the program, one only has to look at the Iron Dome Support Act. The bill was introduced in the House in March by Rep. Howard L. Berman (D-Calif.), the ranking minority member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, along with the panel’s chairman, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.). A companion measure is in the Senate. The first four batteries of Iron Dome, deployed last year in towns near the Gaza Strip, have proved successful in protecting against Hamas’s rocket attacks. Israeli military sources have said the system had more than a 70 percent success rate last month against incoming rockets. In early 2007, then-Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz chose Iron Dome to meet the short-range rocket threat. Testing began in 2008, and by January 2010 the system showed it could be effective. In May 2010, President Obama announced he would ask Congress to add $205 million to the fiscal Pentagon budget for the production phase of Iron Dome. The funds were approved, and in March 2011 the Israel Defense Forces declared the first batteries operational. Iron Dome was developed and built by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd., an Israeli government-owned, profit-making company that, since 2004, has been headed by retired Vice Adm. Yedidia Yaari, the former commander in chief of the Israel Navy. Rafael’s board chairman is retired Maj. Gen. Ilan Biran, former general director of the Ministry of Defense. In August, Rafael joined Raytheon Co. to market the Iron Dome system worldwide. The two are already partners in one of the other anti-missile systems that is being jointly run by Israel and the Pentagon. 16 May 2012 Tablet Magazine Hezbollah’s Newest Threat By Lee Smith Lebanon’s Party of God is feeling heat from certain Shiites, who aren’t eager to serve as human shields again

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17 May 2012

(U) Sayyed Muhammad Hassan al-Amine sits next to a poster of Sheikh Hassan Mchaymech, once a part of Hezbollah’s leadership and now imprisoned. (Wael Hamze) Hezbollah’s goal, in the words of its senior officials, has always been to create a society of resistance among Lebanese Shiite Muslims—one that would share in the setbacks as well as the victories of the militia’s fighters. So, why is Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah now complaining that Israel committed war crimes against civilians? In a culture of total resistance, surely no one is an innocent bystander. Yet at a celebration this past Friday for the rebuilding of portions of Beirut’s southern suburbs destroyed in the 2006 war with Israel, Nasrallah asked his followers: “Why wasn’t [Israel] content with the killings in the battlefield, or with bombing military bases? Why did it expand its aggression to destroy homes and schools?” Nasrallah apparently wants it both ways. He runs a guerrilla organization that stores its arms in homes and schools and hides among a civilian population that supports Hezbollah’s brand of asymmetric warfare. At the same time, he seeks to prick the conscience of the international community in order to have Israel sanctioned for crimes against the same population that his group uses as human shields. But there’s something else behind his Friday remarks: Nasrallah is more sensitive than ever to the devastation to which he has exposed the Shiite community because he fears that the culture of resistance Hezbollah has cultivated may be on the wane. Or, as anti-Hezbollah Shiite activist Lokman Slim told me “The shelf-life of the resistance has reached its expiration date.” Last week in Beirut I found that many Shiites, even those not actively opposed to Hezbollah, are becoming increasingly anxious about the role that the party has designed for them—as cannon fodder in the next round of warfare with Israel. I spoke with Slim at a reception he was hosting last week in Beirut in honor of a dissident Shiite cleric, Sheikh Hassan Mchaymech, once a part of Hezbollah’s leadership and now imprisoned for challenging the party’s doctrine. In his writings over the last two decades, Mchaymech has promoted democracy and criticized the notion of guardianship of the jurist (wilayet al-faqih), the theory handed down by the founder of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, which confers on Iran’s supreme religious leader supreme political power as well.

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Guardianship of the jurist is also what gives Tehran command and control over Hezbollah, an organization that it seeded more than 30 years ago in Lebanon’s Bekaa valley and continues to fund lavishly. The result is that the fate of Lebanon’s entire Shiite community—whether or not they’ve signed on to the culture of resistance—is in the hands of the Iranians. Hezbollah and its allies in Syria have accused Mchaymech of collaborating with Israel in order to silence him and anyone else who thinks of stepping out of line. But Slim contends that it is Hezbollah that is collaborating—with Iran—at the expense of Lebanon’s Shiites. Slim is hardly alone in his criticism of Hezbollah. Recently there have been a number of signs—including books, like the recently published volume of Mchaymech’s, as well as newspaper articles from Shiite journalists explicitly attacking Nasrallah—that suggest Hezbollah is feeling the heat at home. Hezbollah may control the Lebanese government, but the party hasn’t distinguished itself for its stewardship. Even in its own Shiite regions, like Beirut’s southern suburbs, the community, according to knowledgeable inside observers, is plagued with a growing crime rate, drug usage, and other sociological problems that Hezbollah has proven incapable of managing. Perhaps worst of all, the situation unfolding in neighboring Syria has left Hezbollah and its constituents in a bind: If the Assad regime is toppled, Hezbollah will lose one of its two patrons, Iran being the other. And yet Nasrallah has openly sided with the regime in Damascus and perhaps even sent fighters to assist Assad. And now many of Lebanon’s Shiites are asking themselves: Why is a resistance movement that is supposed to champion justice taking the side of a regime that slaughters other Muslims? In short, it’s not a great time to be Hassan Nasrallah. Indeed, even last Friday’s celebration for the southern suburbs is evidence of the challenges the Hezbollah chief faces. “The party was supposed to be held this coming July,” said Ali al-Amine, editor of a monthly Arab-language magazine called Shu’un Janubiya, which focuses on the concerns of the country’s Shiite community. “They pushed it up two months for a reason. Hezbollah is trying to show its supporters that they’ve done something good for the community and this is the only occasion it has to bring good news.” This gathering for Mchaymech, which brought together notable Shiite figures including clerics, like Sheikh Sayyed Muhammad Hassan Al-Amine (the editor’s father), politicians, and journalists, suggests that while Hezbollah still commands the loyalty of much of the Shiite community, there is a small yet growing resistance toward Hezbollah. “Some of the Shia community benefited from the 2006 war with Israel and wants to hold on to its gains,” said Slim, referring to the money that poured in from Iran and elsewhere during the conflict. He argues that this has created a level of affluence that has the potential to be damaging to a movement whose members used to rate themselves according to their sacrifices, not the size of their SUVs. Slim has his own resistance credentials. In the Lebanese civil war, he fought alongside the Palestinians against Israel and promised to himself that if he lived through Ariel Sharon’s 1982 invasion he’d leave the war as well as Lebanon. In the early ’90s, he returned from Europe to the southern suburbs of Beirut to stand up to Hezbollah in one of its own strongholds and has seen the damage that the party has done to the Shiite community. “Those Shia who lost their homes and money in 2006 don’t want to go through it again,” Slim said. “As far as they’re concerned, Hezbollah checked off that box labeled resistance with the 2006 war. It’s over.” In the likely scenario detailed by Israeli, American, and other Western strategists, if Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran will unleash Hezbollah to retaliate. Now that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formed his unity government—what some are calling a war Cabinet—it’s clear that the Shiites are anything but eager to bear that burden in Iran’s fight with Israel. Moreover, it appears that the Jewish state isn’t even Hezbollah’s

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17 May 2012

biggest concern at present. “The Israel issue is secondary right now,” Amine, the editor, told me. “The Syria issue is primary.” Hezbollah’s big concern is that the 14-month-old uprising against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could cut off its main arms route and strip the Lebanese militia of its strategic depth. The Shiite community also fears the uprising, but for a different reason: If a Sunni ruler replaces Assad’s Alawite regime it would jeopardize the political and financial prestige that many Lebanese Shiites have come to enjoy under the dispensation of Hezbollah. As Hezbollah leaders have quietly let on among their followers, a Sunni regime will represent an existential threat to the Shiites. “They don’t talk about it in public speeches,” Amine said. “But their internal communications are all fixated on the Sunnis. They talk about the threat coming from al-Qaida and the Salafis.” Naming Israel as the enemy is easy, said Slim. But identifying the Salafis as their main concern poses a delicate problem for Hezbollah. “These are fellow Muslims,” Slim explained. Moreover, playing the sectarian card may well backfire on the Shiite resistance movement. But right now, Hezbollah’s main goal is to keep the reins tight on its own community. As Amine said, “Hezbollah is using this fear of the Salafis to control the Shia.” And most Shiites, he added, “live and breathe because of Hezbollah. They can’t exist outside of this culture.” And yet there are other members of the Shiite community who are in the midst of a full-scale insurrection against the party of God. Slim told me that he’s been waiting for this moment. “I saw the birth of Hezbollah,” he said. “It is not divine, but a human thing, which means it has a lifespan. I will see its end as well.”


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