170502-Meridian Chamber of Commerce - Zions Bank · 2020. 5. 29. · $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00...

ZionsBankEconomicOverviewMeridianChamberofCommerce

• May2,2017

National Economic Conditions

Dow20,000– TheTrumpBumpDowReachesNewHeightsFollowingU.S.PresidentialElection

Source:WallStreetJournal

CurrentLevelofConsumerConfidenceIndicatesEconomicProsperity

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Mar-12

Jun-12

Sep-12

Dec-12

Mar-13

Jun-13

Sep-13

Dec-13

Mar-14

Jun-14

Sep-14

Dec-14

Mar-15

Jun-15

Sep-15

Dec-15

Mar-16

Jun-16

Sep-16

Dec-16

Mar-17

Above110indicateseconomicprosperity

AprCCI=120.3

Source:TheConferenceBoard

ExpectationsofFutureInflationontheRise

NFIBSmallBusinessOptimismIndex

Source:TradingEconomics

IrrationalExuberance?

DivergenceofSoftvsHardData

Why?

Thou

sand

sCumulativeJobLossbyMonthsofRecession

Source:EulerHermesanalysisofBureauofLaborStatisticsData

Thou

sand

s

Source:EulerHermesanalysisofBureauofLaborStatisticsData

CumulativeJobLossbyMonthsofRecession

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Index

PeriodsfromValueScaledto100

2007Recession 2001Recession 1990Recession1981Recession 1980Recession 1973Recession

SlowerRecoverythanPastRecessions

Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis

SlowerRecoverythanPastRecessions

MixedMarchJobIndicators

Indicator Expectation ActualTotalNonfarmPayrolls 175,000 98,000UnemploymentRate 4.7% 4.5%PrivatePayrolls 200,000 89,000MonthlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 0.3% 0.2%

YearlyAverageHourlyWageGrowth 2.8% 2.7%

LaborForceParticipation 62.9% 63.0%

Sources:WallstreetJournalandBureauofLaborStatistics

98,000JobsAddedinMarch

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

5002005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

8.7MillionJobsLost

15.5MillionJobsRecovered

PayrollChange000’s

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics

98,000JobsAddedinMarch

126

237 225

153

43

297 291

176

249

124

164 155

216 219

98

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Janu

ary-16

February-16

March-16

April-16

May-16

June-16

July-16

August-16

Septem

ber-1

6

Octob

er-16

November-1

6

December-1

6

Janu

ary-17

February-17

March-17

PayrollChange000’s


NationalEmploymentChangePercentChangeinNationalEmploymentbyIndustry:Mar2016toMar2017

0.7% 0.9%

1.7% 2.3%

3.2% 2.2%

-1.2% 0.7%

0.3% 2.6%

0.4%

-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

GovernmentOtherServices

Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity

InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities

ManufacturingConstruction

Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:1.5%

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics;seasonallyadjusted

NationalEmploymentChangeTotalChangeinNumberofJobsbyIndustryinThousands:Mar2016toMar2017

15254

258527

639178

-32 192

37177

3

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700





Ntl.Res.&Mining

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics;seasonallyadjusted

UnemploymentRateIndicatesFullEmployment

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

5.0%=FullEmployment


UnemployedandDiscouragedWorkersDownfromLastMonth

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

U-6(Underemployed) U-3(Unemployment)


4.4

7.1

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Mar200067.3%

Apr197863.0%

Mar201763.0%

%

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Seasonallyadjusted

LaborForceParticipationAmongLowestLevelinAlmost40Years

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Seasonallyadjusted

62.0

63.0

64.0

65.0

66.0

67.0

68.0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

63.0

%

LaborForceParticipationIncreasingSlightly

CivilianLaborForceParticipationRateMalevsFemale

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%1948

1954

1960

1966

1972

1978

1984

1990

1996

2002

2008

2014

Men Women


ParticipationAmongWomenAged25-34HasSurged

YearlyWageGrowthDownSlightlyinMarch

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0% 2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Mar.20172.7%

2007-2016Average=2.4%

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Growthratecalculatedusingrealchained1982-1984dollars

ProducerPriceIndexRisingSlightlyinMarch

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.02011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Year-to-YearChange

Percen

t

Source:BureauofLaborStatistics;notseasonallyadjusted

-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%

Sept2011

Dec2

011

Mar2012

Jun2012

Sept2012

Dec2

012

Mar2013

Jun2013

Sept2013

Dec2

013

Mar2014

Jun2014

Sept2014

Dec2

014

Mar2015

Jun2015

Sep2015

Dec2

015

Mar2016

June2016

Sep2016

Dec2

016

Mar2017

U.S.ConsumerPriceIndexYearlyChangeRate

InflationAboveFedTargetButBelowExpectationsinMarch


GrowthinConsumerSpendingUnderPar

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

52006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Percent

PersonalConsumptionExpenditureYearlyPercentChange

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

ConsumersDriveGrowthinGDP

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GovernmentInventoriesNetExportsFixedInvestmentPersonalConsumptionRealGDPGrowth

Q12017GDP0.7%

TheU.S.DollarisStrong

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

TradeWeightedU.S.DollarIndex:Broad1973=100

Source:FederalReserve

EurocomparedtoU.S.Dollar

$0.80

$0.90

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60


PARITY

1.06

1.39

$6.00

$6.50

$7.00

$7.50

$8.00

$8.50

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2010Chinaallowstheyuantorise

Aug2015China

devaluestheyuanbylargestamountin20years

2001ChinajoinsWTO 2005

Chinaallowstheyuantorise

2008China

stopstheyuan’srise

U.S.DollarComparedtoChineseYuan


BritishPoundDroppedtoNewLowFollowingBrexit Vote

$1.00

$1.10

$1.20

$1.30

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017


BrexitVote

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

OilPrices ActiveOilRigs

Source:BakerHughesandU.S.EnergyInformationAdministrationNote:Totalcountincludesoilandgasrigs

U.S.TotalRigCountRecoveringfromLowasOilPricesRise

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Source:U.S.FederalReserve

FederalFundsTargetRateSees3nd IncreaseinOveraDecade

FederalFundsTargetRate=1.0

March2017FedRateIncreaseProjections

Source:BoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserve

1.4%

2.1%

3.0% 3.0%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2017 2018 2019 LongRun

Source: U.S Census Bureau

Idaho Economic Conditions

PercentChange:2015to2016U.S.Rate=0.7%

PopulationLoss

0.7%to1.4%(atoraboveU.S.rate)0.2%to0.6%

1.5%ormore

0.0%to0.1%

NM0.0%

UT2.0%

AZ1.7%

CA0.7%

NV2.0%

OR1.7%

TX1.6%

OK0.4%

CO1.7%

WA1.8%

ID1.8%

MT1.0%

WY-0.2%

ND0.1%

SD0.9%

MN0.7%

NE0.7%

KS0.3%

IA0.4%

MO0.3%

AR0.3%

LA0.3%

WI0.2%

IL-0.3%

IN0.3%

OH0.1%

FL1.8%

TN 0.9%

KY 0.3%

MS0.0%

AL0.2%

GA1.1%

SC1.4%

NC 1.1%

VA0.5%

WV-0.5%

PA-0.1%

NY0.0%

ME0.2%

AK0.6%

HI0.2%

MA0.4%

VT-0.2%

NH0.4%

RI0.1%

CT-0.2%

NJ0.1%

DE0.8%

MD0.4%

MI0.1%

DC1.6%

KS0.0%

IdahoPopulation3rd Fastest GrowinginU.S.

Source:U.S.CensusBureau

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,0001981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation

10,296

18,869

1,683,140

IdahoPopulationandComponentsofChange

Source:ZionsBankanalysisofU.S.CensusBureaudata

TotalPop

ulation

ComponentsofPopulationChange

IdahoPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty

2015to2016StateAverage=1.8%

Increaseof1.0%to1.7%


Increaseof3.0%orGreater


PopulationLoss


Jerome1.2%

Jefferson2.5%

Idaho-0.6%

Gooding-0.1%

Gem1.6%

Fremont1.0%

Franklin2.9%

Elmore0.9%

Custer0.2%

Clearwater0.2%

Washington2.1%

Clark-1.4%

Valley4.1%

Cassia0.0%

Twin Falls1.7%

Caribou1.8%

Teton3.7%Canyon

2.2%

Shoshone0.0%

Camas0.7%

Power0.4%

Butte0.0%

Payette0.8%

Boundary3.1%

Owyhee0.7%

Bonneville2.0%

Bonner1.8%

Nez Perce0.6%

Boise1.6%

Minidoka1.1%

Blaine1.1%

Madison2.5%

Bingham0.5%Lincoln

-0.7%

Benewah0.6%

Lewis1.6%

Bear Lake0.7%

Lemhi-0.4%

Bannock0.6%

Latah1.2%

Adams1.6%

Kootenai2.6%

Ada2.4%

Oneida1.3%

PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:March2016toMarch2017U.S.Rate=1.5%

Note:SeasonallyAdjustedSource:BureauofLaborStatistics

IdahoEmploymentGrowth6thintheNation


NM0.9%

UT3.2%

AZ2.0%

CA2.1%

NV3.0%

OR2.2%

TX2.1%

OK-0.1%

CO1.9%

ID2.7%

MT2.1%

WY-2.1%

ND-0.3%

SD1.6%

MN1.5%

NE0.9%

KS0.3%

IA0.5%

MO1.4%

AR1.1%

LA-0.1%

WI0.9%

IL0.4%

IN1.5%

OH0.7%

FL3.0%

TN 2.2%

KY1.5%

MS0.0%

AL1.4%

GA3.0%

SC1.8%

NC 1.6%

VA1.2%

WV-0.8%

PA1.0%

NY1.2%

ME0.9%

AK-2.1%

HI0.7%

MA1.4%

VT0.9%

RI0.8%

CT0.1%

NJ1.2%

DE0.8%

MD1.6%

MI1.9%

DC0.8%

Loss

1.6%to1.9%(atorabovetheU.S.rate)2.0%ormore

1.0%to1.5%0.0%to0.9%

WA2.9%

400

500

600

700

8001995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Thou

sand

sofEmployees

TotalNonfarmEmployment

Lossof59,000jobsfrom2007- 2010

Gainof110,100jobssincelow

in2010

Source:U.S.BureauofLaborStatistics,TotalnonfarmseasonallyadjustedNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand

IdahoTotalEmploymentatNewHighs

Source:IdahoDepartmentofLabor

PercentChangeinIdahoEmploymentbyIndustry:March2016– March2017

2.6% 2.5%

1.7% 3.7%

2.7% 4.5% 4.5%

1.5% 1.9%

5.2% -3.0%

-4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6%





Ntl.Res.&Mining

IdahoEmploymentGainsandLossesbyIndustry

Total:2.6%

3,200600

1,2003,700

2,3001,500

4002,000

1,2002,000

-100

-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000





Ntl.Res.&Mining

Total:18,000


IdahoEmploymentGainsandLossesbyIndustry

TotalChangeinIdahoEmploymentbyIndustry:March 2016 – March 2017

IdahoEmploymentChangeRatesByCounty

March2016toMarch2017StateRate=2.7%

Source:IdahoDepartmentofLabor,SeasonallyAdjustedTotalNonfarmEmployment

1.0%to2.6%

0.0%to0.9%

4.0%ormore

2.7%to3.9%

Loss

Jefferson2.3%

Jerome 2.8%

Idaho-0.4%

Gooding1.4%

Gem2.3%

Fremont4.7%

Franklin1.3%

Elmore-1.6%

Custer0.2%

Clearwater-2.3%

Washington0.45% Clark

-2.4%

Valley0.5%

Cassia1.1%

Twin Falls2.1%

Caribou0.6%

Teton0.9%Canyon

2.7%

Shoshone1.7%

Camas1.6%

Power0.2%

Butte2.33%

Payette1.6%

Boundary-1.1%

Owyhee0.7%

Bonneville2.5%

Bonner4.9%

Nez Perce2.8%

Boise2.8%

Minidoka1.1%

Blaine1.0%

Madison5.4%

Bingham4.1%Lincoln

0.8%

Benewah-1.2%

Lewis-0.55%

Bear Lake-1.9%

Lemhi2.0%

Bannock-2.0%

Latah3.9%

Adams4.2%

Kootenai2.3%

Ada2.8%

Oneida2.3%

March2017U.S.Rate=4.5%

HI2.8%

NH2.7%

NM6.8%

UT3.1%

AZ5.1%

CA5.0%

NV4.9%

OR4.0%

TX4.9%

OK4.6%

CO2.9%

WA4.9%

ID3.6%

MT3.8%

WY4.7%

ND2.9%

SD2.8%

MN4.0%

NE3.2%

KS4.0%

IA3.2%

MO4.1%

AR3.7%

LA5.8%

WI3.7%

IL5.4%

IN4.1%

OH5.1%

FL5.0%

TN 5.3%

KY4.9%

MS5.2%

AL6.2%

GA5.3%

SC4.4%

NC 5.1%

VA3.9%

WV5.2%

PA5.0%

NY4.4%

ME3.2%

AK6.4%

MA3.4%

VT3.0%

RI4.5%

CT4.7%

NJ4.4%

DE4.5%

MD4.2%

MI5.3%

DC5.7%

6.0%ormore

4.0%to4.7%(atorbelowU.S.rate)4.8%to5.4%

3.9%orless

5.5%to5.9%


IDUnemploymentRates12th LowestintheNation

NH2.8%

NM6.7%

UT3.1%

AZ5.0%

CA4.9%

NV4.8%

OR3.8%

TX5.0%

OK4.3%

CO2.6%

WA4.7%

ID3.5%

MT3.8%

WY4.5%

ND2.8%

SD2.8%

MN3.8%

NE3.1%

KS3.8%

IA3.1%

MO3.9%

AR3.6%

LA5.7%

WI3.4%

IL4.9%

IN3.9%

OH5.1%

FL4.8%

TN 5.1%

KY5.0%

MS5.0%

AL5.8%

GA5.1%

SC4.4%

NC 4.9%

VA3.8%

WV4.9%

PA4.8%

NY4.3%

ME3.0%

AK6.4%

MA3.6%

VT3.0%

RI4.3%

CT4.8%

NJ4.2%

DE4.5%

MD4.3%

MI5.1%

DC5.8%

IdahoUnemployment

RatesByCounty

March2017StateRate=3.5%

3.7%to5.9%

6.0%to6.9%

3.0%orlower

3.1%to3.6%

7.0%orgreater


Jerome3.1%

Jefferson2.7%

Idaho5.5%

Gooding2.8%

Gem4.2%

Fremont2,8%

Franklin2.7%

Elmore4.1%

Custer4.5%

Clearwater9.0%

Washington5.6% Clark

2.0%

Valley5.1%

Cassia2.7%

Twin Falls3.2%

Caribou3.7%

Teton3.0%Canyon

3.9

Shoshone7.0%

Camas3.1%

Power3.6%

Butte3.5%

Payette6.0%

Boundary5.5%

Owyhee4.2%

Bonneville2.9%

Bonner5.0%

Nez Perce3.1%

Boise5.4%

Minidoka2.9%

Blaine2.8%

Madison2.1%

Bingham3.4%Lincoln

4.2%

Benewah6.9%

Lewis7.0%%

Bear Lake3.4%

Lemhi6.0%

Bannock3.3%

Latah3.2%

Adams7.1%

Kootenai4.3%

Ada3.0%

Oneida3.0%

Source:BureauofEconomicAnalysis

PercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2015–2016U.S.=3.6%;ID=3.6% NH

4.7%

NM2.1%

UT5.6%

AZ4.3%

CA4.5%

NV5.9%

OR4.5%

TX2.9%

OK0.6%

CO3.9%

WA4.8%

ID3.6%

MT2.3%

WY-1.7%

ND-1.5%

SD1.2%

MN3.0%

NE2.8%

KS2.8%

IA2.3%

MO3.5%

AR3.2%

LA1.5%

WI3.1%

IL3.1%

IN3.9%

OH3.0%

FL4.9%

TN 3.9%

KY2.6%

MS3.2%

AL3.3%

GA4.8%

SC4.4%

NC 4.1%

VA3.6%

WV1.0%

PA2.9%

NY2.9%

ME3.7%

AK-1.0%

HI4.5%

MA4.3%

VT3.3%

RI3.1%

CT3.0%

NJ3.2%

DE2.9%

MD3.7%

MI3.6%

DC4.5%

3.6%to3.9%(atorabovetheU.S.rate)2.0%to3.5%

4.0%ormore

0.0%to1.9%Decrease

IDPersonalIncomeGrowthSameasNationalAverage

Construction

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,0002000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Idaho U.S.

IdahoMedianHomeSalePricesReachingApproachingPre-RecessionHighs

Source:Graphiq.comreportingdatafromCoreLogic

00.20.40.60.81

1.21.41.61.8

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Percentageoftotalhomesinforeclosureprocess

U.S. Idaho

IdahoMaintainsLowerPercentageofForeclosuresthanNation

Source:Graphiq.com

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015f

Single-FamilyUnits Multifamily Total

Source:U.S.DepartmentofCommerceandU.S.CensusBureau

IdahoResidentialConstructionActivitySlowlyClimbing


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,5001995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015f

Millions

SingleFamilyUnits MultiFamilyUnits Total

IdahoValueofNewResidentialConstructionIncreasing

Meridian

MeridianAtaGlance

• Population– 90,739• Unemployment– 3.0%• MedianIncome- $54,746• MedianHomeValue- $213,100• MedianGrossRent- $987• LargestEmployers

• BlueCross• Scentsy

• Forbesbestplacestoretire– 2016

MeridianisExperiencingExplosiveGrowth

ManufacturingandConstructionLeadJobsinMeridian

MeridianUnemploymentDropping

HousingPricesIncreasinginMeridian

Sources:IdahoDivisionofFinancialManagementandMoody’sEconomy.com e=estimatef=forecast

3.4

4.9

3.9

1.9

1.4

12

4.4

3.8

1.8

1.5

23.8

3

3.8

3.1

1.4

0 5 10 15 20 25

HousingStarts

PersonalIncome

UnemploymentRate

NonfarmEmployment

Population

2016 2017f 2018f

IdahoEconomicIndicators2016-2018

RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer

Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394

ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.

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Date post:	06-Oct-2020
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170502-Meridian Chamber of Commerce - Zions Bank · 2020. 5. 29. · $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00...

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