180124 Reporting On The 180124 Chinese Manufacturing ...€¦ · Why Bitcoin Is Both A Risk For...

WhyBitcoinIsBothARiskForDoomAndAnOpportunityForTransformation:ReportingOnTheChineseManufacturingIndustryBehindTheCryptocurrency

2018(c)telospi.com 1

…whenadvancingscienceandtechnologyalterman’slong-establishedrelationshipwiththeplanetonwhichhelives,revolutionizehissocieties,andatthesametimeequiphisrulerswithnewandimmenselymorepowerfulinstrumentsofdomination,whatoughtwetodo?Whatcanwedo?[AldousHuxley]Shenzhen,18.January,2018.AsIenterthearrivalhallinBaoanAirportmyeyessearchforVasilyinvain.Heisnothere.Igivehimacallandhepicksupthephone.“Iamonmyway.Youtoldmethatyouwouldarriveaquartertoeight.”IsitdowninaCostaCoffeenexttothearrivalexitandwaitforhim.Vasilyshowsuptenminuteslaterandsitsdownoppositeofme.Inoticethatheistallerthaninmymemory;probably1.90,slim,dressedinblackjeansandablackdenimshirt,agreyscarftiedaroundhisneck.Ifthereweren’tteenagerbraceletsonhisteeth,hewouldgothroughaRussianspyinaJamesBondmovie.VasilyisactuallyfromtheUkraineandImethimonlytwoweeksearlieronaShanghaievent,whereIspokeaboutthefutureofworkandtheimpactofroboticsandAI.Heapproachedmeaftertheeventandexplainedthatheownsatradingcompany,whichbuysminingrigsinShenzhenandsellsthemtoEasternEurope,RussiaandtheUS.Astheconversationunfolds,heprovidesincrediblenumbersaboutthehardwareindustrybehindtheBitcoinhype,andIamhooked.Miningrigs|挖矿机.WhatinGod’snameishetalkingabout?Aren’trigsinfrastructuretodrillforoil?Ihadafewyearsago,whenIfirstheardaboutBitcoinandcryptocurrencies,openedamentaldrawerandputtheentiresubjectadacta:pyramidscheme.Thosewhocomefirstearnmassiveprofits,thosewhocomelastbeartherisk.Recently,theblockchaintechnologybehindBitcoinhasattractedmyinterestafterreadingHeinzvonFörsterandBernhardPörksen’sconversationon



UnderstandingSystems.Förster,whohadthenicknameSocratesofCybernetics,explainsthereintheconceptofcircularityandIimmediatelyunderstoodthatblockchainindeedisthetechnologytoputinrealitywhattheparticipantsoftheMacyConferenceshaveprobablyenvisionedforhumanitybackinthe1950s:meritocracy.VasilyisfromKiev,studiedChineseandworkedasatranslatorforheavyandmilitaryindustrycompanieswhichselltheirproductstoChina.Hedid,asamatteroffact,alsosupportthesalesofhugeexcavators,thekindofwhichisusedinlargesurfacemines.Hetellsmewithanairofgenuineastonishment,thathisoldclientsalwayswantedtoknoweverydetailofthemachinetheywereabouttopurchase;butnothisnewclients.TheyasknoquestionsandpayuptoUSD6000forasinglerig.Onlysevenmonthsagoheleftthephysicalminingindustryforthedigitalone.Myfacialexpressionmusthavegivenawaymydisbelief,becausehepullsouthismobileandshowsmepicturesofmachineswhichlookabitlikechunkyearlydesktopcomputerswithoutmonitor.

Mynewtechnicaladvisorexplainsthatminingrigsaresupercomputerswhichcontainbetween170and200chips,eachoneofthemcapabletooperateahigh-endlaptop.Oncetheyarelaunched,theyperformthecomplexcalculationswhicharerequiredtomineforBitcoins.AcrashcourseforthosewhoknowevenlessthanmeaboutBitcoin:thedigitalcurrencywaslaunchedin2009andiscreatedasarewardforaso-calledproofofwork,i.e.solvinghypercomplexcalculationswithacomputer.Thecurrencyoperateswithblockchaintechnology,whichischaracterizedbybeingdecentralizedandencrypted.Now,Ioriginallylikedthatideaandthetimingcouldn’thavebeenbetter.WiththeGFCinfullswing,themysteriousBitcoinfounderswhoareknownunderthepseudonymSatoshiNakamotodefinitelyfeltthepulseofanerawhichischaracterizedbyfalteringeconomies,decadentcapitalism,corruptgovernmentsandbankswhicharetoobigtofail.TheyestablishedwithBitcoininarevolutionaryhackeractacurrencywhichisnotcontrolledbyacentralbankandcan’tbemanipulatedbyLehmanBrothers&Co.Sofarsogood.



Humanity’sChallengesMirroredInBitcoin1. Scarcityandexclusionvsabundanceandinclusion2. Environmentaldegradationvsecologicalconservation3. Greedvskindness

TheproblemwithBitcoinandasfarasIcantellwithallcryptocurrenciesisthatitoperatesapartfromdecentralizationandfraudsecurityalongthesamelinesasallfiatcurrenciesdo:Bitcoinestablishesafinancialsystemofscarcitywhichgivespreferredaccesstotech-savvyinsteadoffinance-savvypeople–orevenworse:acombinationofthetwo-andleavesmostofhumanitytoitsownterms.Itisafinancialsystemwhichisdrivenbygreedinsteadofcharityanditrewardsfutileminingwithprofitinsteadofmotivatingmantodogoodathisneighborortheenvironment.ResearchersatCornellhaverecentlyconfirmedthisassumptionbyshowingthatBitcoinandEthereumminingisverycentralized,withthetopfourminersinBitcoinandthetopthreeminersinEthereumcontrollingmorethan50%ofthehashrateandtheentireblockchainforbothsystemsisdeterminedbyfewerthan20miningentities.

Speakingoftheenvironment,thereisathirddownsidetoBitcoinwhichiswidelydiscussedin“green”circleslately,atleastsincetheWorldEconomicForumpostedashortclipexplainingthatBitcoinminingconsumedattheendof2017everydayasmuchelectricityasIrelandandNigeriatogetherandwillby2020consumemoreelectricitythantheentireworld.Well,that’ssomeexponentialgrowthsuperchargedbynihilistgreed.Moreformeattheexpenseoftheplanetandanyway,fuckyouall.TheAscentofMoneyDespiteonly3-5millionBitcoinusers,onlyabout120.000shopswhichacceptBitcoinaspaymentand0.2%electricityconsumptionofthetotalglobalvolume,weneedtorecognizethatBitcoinisanimportantinventioninthehistoryoffinance,whichwillchangethingsforever.HistorianNeilFergusonsummarizedin2008themilestonesoffinancialinnovationandmadeitclearthatinnovationisnotlimitedtotechnologyandscience,butextendsdeeplyintotherealmofmoney.Itistheconfluenceofscience,technologyandfinancethatcreatesthemostpowerfulsocialchangemaker;forbetterorworse.Humanityusesmoneysinceaboutfourmillenniaandasmuchasonewantstostigmatizethisinventionasadevil’sdeed,moneyisverymuchliketechnologynothingmorethanameantoanend.TheproblemformanypeopleisthesheerfactthattheyconfusethemeanwiththeendandgetstuckinamindsetwhichdeclaresmoneyeitherSatanorGod.Fergusonwritesthatitisasamatteroffactonlyamediumofexchange,whichhastheadvantageofeliminatinginefficienciesofbarter;aunitofaccount,whichfacilitatesvaluationandcalculation;andastoreofvalue,whichallowseconomictransactionstobeconductedoverlongperiodsaswellasgeographicaldistances.Fergusonrecountsthatwithmoneycameborrowingandlending,whichwasintheItaliancitystatesasearlyasthe11thcenturyinstitutionalizedinbanks.Governmentsstartedtoissuebondsin



the13thcenturytofinancewarsandothermajorinvestments.Corporationsfollowedthatmodelbyissuingstockfromthe15thcenturyonwards.The19thcenturyintroducedtheprivateinsuranceasavehicletospreadrisk.Governmentsreinventedthisconceptinthe20thcenturytoincreasethehealthoftheirtaxpayersthroughsocialsecurity.The20thcenturysawanexponentialgrowthinfinancialinnovationandintroducedmortgagebackedsecurities,whichexploitthehumanneedforsafetyandrendertheconceptofpropertyownershipadabsurdum.Thecollateralizedmortgageobligationwasthecradleforothersuchneo-mercantilistinnovationslikederivatives,futuresandoptions,allofwhichcontributingtothesubprimehousingcrisesandeventuallytothe2009GFC.HistorianYuvalHararididpointoutinSapiens–ABriefHistoryofMankindthatmoneyhadanenormouslyunifyingeffectonhumanity,whichbyfaroutpacedthetwoothercontendersforbringingunitytoourspecies:religionandempires.MoneymustalsobeconsideredasbeingmostconducivetothedevelopmentofwrittenlanguagesincetheearliestremainsofhumanwritingareSumerianaccountingbooksdatingbackthreemillenniaBC.Weclearlymustacknowledgethattherewouldn’thavebeenanyprogressinourcivilizationswithoutfinancialinnovations,butwealsomustunderstandthatthestoryofmoneycomeswithanarrativeofprofitextractionandsystemblindness,thatis,astoryofhumanvirtueandvice.

USCapitalismonChineseSteroidsVasilyandmerideanillegalcabfromtheairport20kmnorth,wheretheminingrigwarehouseislocated.Wepassahugebuildingwithneonlitletterssaying深圳西硅谷|ShenzhenWestSiliconValley.Thereisnodoubtaboutthiscity’saspirations.IrecallarecentchatwithanAppleengineerwhofliesonceaquartertoShenzhentochecktheproductionqualityofCaliforniadesigned

TheAscentofMoney

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Time Innovation Application

2ndmilBC Money standardizedunitfortheexchangeofgoods&services11th century Banks Borrowingofmoney13th century Bonds Financinggovernments17th century Stock Financing corporations19th century Insurance Spreadingrisk andandexploitingeconomiesofscale20th century Social insurance Healthiertax payers20th century Mortgage backedsecurity Exploitationofhumanneedforsafety20th century E-payment Eliminationofhumaninteraction

21st century Cryptocurrencies Eliminationofintermediary banks

Astoryofacceleratedprofitextractionandsystemblindness



products.ManyengineerslamentthatmanufacturinghasmovedtoChinaandarefullofenvyaboutthehighconcentrationofhardwareproductionfacilitiesinShenzhen.Thecity,whichwasbasicallyfoundedin1992,whenDengXiaopingundertookhisfamousjourneysouthtoopeninShenzhenthefirstspecialeconomiczone(SEZ)isasoftodayonlysecondtoBeijinginthenumberofresidentbillionaires.Inparticularrealestatetycoons–whichaccordingtoHurunmakeupforabout2/3ofChina’swealthandhigh-techentrepreneurshavechosensafedistancefromthecapitalandvicinitywiththeestablishedtradeandfinancecenterHongKong.GlobalgiantslikeVanke,BYD,Tencent,Huawei,ZTEandrisingtechstarslikeMegmeetorBitmaincallthecitytheirheadquarter.BloombergreportsthatmanyChineseSiliconValleyemployeesflockrecentlybacktothisplacedespitenoteveninthefurthestresemblinganypartofCalifornia.ShenzhenisabouttomergewithHongKong,GuangzhouandothercitiesinthePearlRiverDeltaandtheregionisexpectedtoturnby2030intotheworld’slargestmetropolitanareawithabout120millioninhabitants.Populationdensity,thicksmogandindustrialpollutioncan’tbethepullfortheseseaturtlestoreturntotheirhatchingbeaches.TherearefewthingslesspleasingtotheLord,andlessproductive,thananengineeringdepartmentthatrapidlyturnsoutbeautifulblueprintsforthewrongproduct.[PeterF.Drucker,ManagementPhilosopher]VasilytellsmethathewasinBitmain’sShenzhenofficesonlythisweektonegotiateaboutalargerminingrigorder.StockiscurrentlydifficulttocomebyatBitmainandonlydirectpurchasefromthemanufacturerguaranteesgoodmargins.Heaskedfor1000pcsofantminerS913.5T,Bitmain’snewestminingrig,whichwillsoonbesubstitutedbytheS914Tmodel.BitmaintoldhimthatthemaximumorderhecouldplaceafterChineseNewYearwere400pcsandthatthepricewouldbeUSD2400each.Hewouldbeabletopickuphisbatchmid-Aprilimplyingaleadtimeofroughlytwomonthsandprepayment.SinceIdon’tunderstandthecrazeaboutBitmain,Vasilytellsmeabitmoreaboutthecompanybackground.Foundedonlyin2013byformerfinancialanalystWuJianhanandtechmediaentrepreneurZhanMicree,thecompanyhassincethenembarkedonasteroidchargedgrowthandinnovationtrajectory.HeadquarteredinBeijingas比特币大陆科技有限公司,literallytranslatedBitcoinMainlandLtd.,itsnamedoesindicatetheirfounders’mission:todevelopaChinesesubstituteforBitcoinordisplaceitaltogether.Despitethistechno-nationalisticambition,BitmainhaslatelyrunintoproblemswithBeijing,becauseitsactivitieshaveincreasinglythreatenedthestabilityoftheChineseYuan.ItismainlyduetoBitmain’sroleasleadingmanufacturerofBitcoinminingrigs,itsvastinvestmentinminingfarmsandChineseinvestor’srushoncryptocurrenciesasalternativestotherigiddomesticfinancialsystem,thatinitialcoinofferings(ICO)havebeendeclaredillegalinmainlandChina.Sinceminingfarmshavealsocomeundermorescrutiny,Bitmainconsiderstoshiftpartsofitsbusinessmodel



andlooksforB2Gpartnerships,i.e.governmentswhicharewillingtoenterlongtermagreementsandcanprovidecheapelectricity.VasilybelievesinBitmain’sshorttermsuccessandhasalsostartedtothinkaboutestablishingminingfarmsinothercountries.HetellsmethatheandhisUSbusinesspartnerhavefoundedCryptocurrencyMiningInc.(CMI)inVirginiaStateandhavesolduptillnowroughly700rigstoclientsinUkraine,RussiaandUSofAmerica.TheyhavemadefriendswithasalesmanageratBitcoinwhomovesthemonthewaitinglistforwardinexchangeforacommissiontocuttheintermediarymargin.PurchasingfromBitmaindirectlyisdifficultandmostbatchesaresoldoutlongbeforetheyaremanufactured.WhilelatestmodelscostatBitmainaroundUSD2000,theyareresoldby1sttiertradersforaroundUSD4000andgettotheendcustomerformorethanUSD5000.“Marginsarejustphenomenal,”Vasilysays.OurcabstopsoppositeofTianhongMallatKaijiaHotel,bothbuildingslitwithneonandtoweringadozenfloorsoveralargeintersection.AshortChinese,dressedcompletelyinblack,militaryhaircut,opensthecardoorandthrowsafewwordsRussianatme.Wewalkintothehotellobbyandwhilethestaffcopiesourpassports,Irealizethatweareinthemidstofnegotiations.Vasilyasksforthecurrentprice.LaoWangtypes27000intohisiphone.Hedividesby6.4,showsVasily4218andadds“美金|USD.”Vasilyinturncallsafriendtoconfirmthepricefromanotherretailerandcomesbacktotheconversationwithanewnumber:25500.Iamlosingmypatiencewiththehotelstaff,sodoesVasily’sfriend,“Impossible”hesays,typing26500intohisphone.“Thisismylastprice.Howmanydoyouwanttobuyanyway?”Wequeueupfortheelevatorwithfouryoungwomenandrideuptothethirdfloor.Thefemalehotelattendantwhotakesustoourroomssmilesatuswhenthewomengetoutoftheelevatorandsmilesawkwardly,“WehaveaKTVon2ndand3rdfloor.Yourroomsmightbeabitnoisy.”HerwarningturnsouttobetrueandIamwakeuntil2amdespiteearplugslisteningtothedisharmonicvocalsofdrunkmen.Weleaveourroomsthoughimmediatelyafterdroppingoffourluggageandheadouttoseetheminingrigdistributors.Weleavethehotelthroughitsbackentrance,whichalsoservesasthenightclub’smainentranceandwalkonly100meterstothenextblockofbuildings.Innovativecompanynamesexpectusthere,generallyinducingasenseofindustryandconfidence:HoneyBeeTechnology|蜜蜂科技,GuangxiChinaTechnologyLtd.|桂华科技有限公司,DragonGodExcavators|神龙矿机,YutongMiningCorp.|禹彤矿业,ProfoundTrustMiningCorp.|伟信矿业.ThecreatorsofYutongMiningCorp.musthavebroodedsubstantiallyabouthowtocalltheirenterpriseandIamintriguedhowChineseentrepreneursquiteoftenmanagetoclaimthepastoftheirancientculture.YutongwasthemythicalfounderoftheXiaDynastywhichreignedoverthecradleofChinesecivilizationbetweenthe21stand16thcenturyBC.Heisalsonicknamedasthetamerofthefloods.Wewillseeifthecurrentrulerofthiscountrywillbeabletotamethefloodsunleashedbythisindustry.ADexun|德讯物流packagingstationisperchedinbetweenthedistributorofficesandabouttwodozenmenarebusymovingpalettesofminingrigsfromoneplacetoanother,preparingthe



packagesfortheirfinaldestinations.Itakeacloserlookatthedeliverynotesandread29piecestoShanxi,32piecestoXinjiang.“WhydomostofthesedeliveriesstayinChina?Ithoughtminingisnoanymoreallowed.”VasilypullsmeawayandtakesmetoYutongMiningCorp.,wherehewavestoayoungfellowinsidetheoffice.Theyoung,tallmanwithblondehairintroduceshimselfasSasha.DressedinsuperslimjeansandawideMoschinoT-Shirt,probablyinhisearly20s,heisnotreallyamatchforthisindustry,butheturnsouttoknoworatleasttalkalot.SashahasbeenlivinginChinafor10years,mostofthetimeinShenzhen,andnowworksasaRussian-ChinesetranslatorforYutong.HisbossisaShanxibusinesswomanwhooperatesbothadistributornetworkforminingrigsaswellasminingfarmsinShanxiandXinjiang.Sashaisclearlypartofthisgoldrush.Heskipsfromonelegtoanotherandtellsusthathehardlysleeps,maybetwoorthreehoursanight.Hestayshereeveryeveninguntil11pmandthinksthathesuffersfrominsomnia.“Iamokthough,”headds,“itsexciting.”HeexplainsthatDexunhassetupshopheretoshipminingrigsthroughoutthecountryandbeyond,sincemostmanufacturersarebasedinShenzhenandalargefractionoftheproductionvolumegoesthroughthedealersonsite.“ThismorningwesoldtheS913.5modelfor23500,butthiseveningitwas27000,”Sasha’seyesareshiningandhesmilesbroadly.Thehardwarebehindtheentireminingcrazeistightlylinkedtothevaluefluctuationsofthecryptocurrency.“Sure,youcanalsobuysecondhandrigs.Wejustgotabatchof400returnedfromaXinjiangbusinessman.Hethinksthatoperatingafarmistoodangerouswiththegovernmentincreasingelectricitypricesandpotentiallyshuttingdownoperations.Insuchasituation,youcangetrigsmuchcheaper.”IaskSashawhymostoftheDexundeliveriesstillgotoChineserecipientswhenitisillegaltorunfarms.Herepliesthat“It’sashamethatthegovernmenttriestodestroysuchaprofitableindustry,”andexplainsthatthereisalwaysthepossibilitytostrikeadealwithlocalgovernmentsandcontinuefarmingoperations.“Althoughsuchhugepowerconsumersmustbeeasytolocate?”Iwanttoknow.SashashowsthathehasassimilatedhimselftoskirtingregulationsandunderstandsthecomplexdynamicsofmultipleinterestsinChinesesociety.“Yousee,forthegovernmentandtheStateGrid(thestate-ownedelectricitysupplier)it’sagreatbusinesstohavestableandlargeconsumersandtheywouldliketocontinuecooperation;manylocalgovernmentsdoalsoharvesttaxrevenueinremotelocations.Theynaturallywantthefarmstocontinueoperation.”OnourwaybacktothehotelashiverrunsdownmybackasIrealizethatIjustdiscussedthemanufacturingindustrybehindoneofthemilestonesinfinancialinnovationwithtwoCaucasianmeninChinese,notinEnglish.Aclearsignofwherepowerconvergesinthe21stcenturyattheintersectionwithscienceandtechnology.Thenightclubisinfullswing,barfliesqueuingattheelevatoranddeafeningKaraokesingingalreadypenetratingthelobby,andIcontinuetochatwithVasilyabouttheimplicationsofBitcoinminingfortheChinesegovernment.WhywereICOsdeclaredillegalin2017?CryptocurrenciesdonotonlycorrupttheUSD,butallnationalandcentrallycontrolledcurrencies.



BitcoinisthusathreatforallgovernmentsanditsgrowthinvalueincreasesnotonlytheUSDbutalsotheCNYinflation.ButifBeijingwerereallyconcernedabouttheCNYbeingcorruptedbyBitcoinbanningfarmsfromitsterritorydoesn’tseemtobethedecisiveblowrequiredtostabilizeitsowncurrency.Itwouldhavetoshutdownthemanufacturersofminingrigsandcoulddoso,because90%ofthemarelocatedonitsterritory.Antminer|蚂蚁，DivineHorse|神马，Avalong|阿瓦隆，Chipmover|芯动科技，Wingbit|翼比特.TheindustryleadersareallChinese.So,whyisitholdingbackalethalstrike?ItsseemslikeBeijingisinadilemma.Therearehightechcompanies,whichcreatejobsandaddvaluetotheeconomy,butindirectlysabotagethenationalcurrency.OntopofthatcompanieslikeBitmainarerisingstarsinartificialintelligenceresearch,oneifnotthemoststrategicindustryBeijingwantstodominate.VasilybelievesthatthecompanyhasavisionwhichgoesfarbeyondBitcoin.TherevenuemadewiththesalesofminingrigsisreinvestedinthedevelopmentofSophon,anewgenerationofmicrochip,whichisaccordingtothecompanyfounderssupposedtopowerAItowardssingularity.WiredpublishedaboutayearagoapieceaboutwhereZhanMicree’sinspirationforSophoncamefrom:sciencefictionauthorLiuCixincallsaprotonsizedmicroprocessorSophon.ItisspreadonEarthbyhostilealiensinhisnovelTheThreeBodyProblem.Bitmainisalsoactiveinrobotics–orshouldIrathersayeducation-andhasrecentlypresentedLuoXiaodou.ThissmallrobotwhichresemblesEvefromPixar’sWall-Eisdesignedtosupportchildrenintheirlearningprogress.Iwon’tgohereintodetails,butaskanydevelopmentalpsychologist,kindergartenorprimaryschoolteacherandtheywillalltellyouthatchildrenlearnbestwithhumans,notrobots.OneisleftwithafoultasteaboutallBitmainactivitiesandmustwonder:whichendjustifiesthesemeans?Vasilyalsoconfidestomehisconspiracytheory,butonlyafterheadmitsthathethoughtthatIamAustralian.NowthatheknowsthatIamfromthisbeautifulcountrywhichishometoSteyrrifles,“Trueworksofart”hemarvels,andAlfredAdler’sindividualpsychotherapy,heexpoundshistheoryaboutminingrigsbeingremotelycontrolledandBitmaintryingtobuildaglobalsupercomputer.IgivetheideasomethoughtsandswiftlyhaveMatrix-likevisionsinmyhead.WhatiftheminingrigscouldreallybecontrolledthroughthewebandwhatifBitmainwilllaunchSophontotakeovertheircollectiveprocessingpower?Whatwouldthatmeanforhumanity?AcceleratedCurrencyLifeCyclesIdon’tarrivethoughatdoomsdaysciencefictionscenariosofeithertheChinesegovernmenttakingovertheworldthroughBitmainnoraliensusurpingourplanet.Quiteonthecontrary,IstarttothinkagainaboutcurrencylifecyclesandfinancialinnovationandwhatThomasHobbesmeantwhenheusedinLeviathanthemucholderproverbhomohominilupus.Humankinddoesn’tneedhostilealiens,becauseitexcelsatdestroyingitself.Onereallyhastospendafewthoughtsonthemonetarysystemtounderstandwhatdigitalcurrencieshavekickedoffandwhatourgreeddrivenracetowardssingularityimplies.



TheUSDollar,whichisstillthemostdominantglobalcurrency,hasbeeninusesinceitsinceptionin1792,butwas1971decoupledfromgoldandissincethenfiatcurrency,i.e.avaluewebelieveinandwhichhasnorepresentationinthephysicalworld.OnecouldarguenowwhethertheUSDhashadahithertolifespanofroughly230or45years,butonewouldalwayscometotheconclusionthatnotonlytheUSD,butallfiatcurrenciesaresubjecttoalifecycleofbirthanddeath.Whyisthat?Thisstatementisgroundedonthreesimpleobservations.Firstly,allcurrenciesthathumanityhasseensofarhavecreatedabundanceforafewandscarcityforthemajority;theyareassuchanexchangemechanismwhichgraduallyleadstomorewealthinequality,becausetheyenabletherulingclassestoextractprofitattheexpenseoftheworkingclass(humanresources)andtheplanet(naturalresources).FrencheconomistThomasPikettyandhisresearchteamhavepartlyexplainedthisgradualinequalityincreaseinCapitalinthe21stCenturywiththeformular>g,i.e.ifreturnoncapitalishigherthaneconomicgrowth,theninequalityrises.Pikettyproposesaglobalsystemofprogressivewealthtaxestohelpreduceinequalityandavoidthevastmajorityofwealthcomingunderthecontrolofatinyminority.Idonotagreewithhissolutiontotheproblem,becauseitisasuperficialone,whichdoesnotaddresstheothertwoobservations:gradualinflationandthevaluesystembehindcurrencies.Allcurrencieslooseinvalueoverthecourseoftimeuntiltheyarerenderedalmostvaluelessattheexpenseofthosewhoselltheirworkforceinsteadofhavingbeenabletoacquirephysicalwealth,thatisrealestate.CryptocurrenciesarenotanexceptiontothisruleasthefuturewillshowdespitethegoldrushonBitcoin,whichessentiallygivesprofitstothosewhocangenerateelectricitycheapest.TheywillfollowthetrajectoryoftheUSDatamuchfasterpaceandthusconfirmthatallcurrencieswhichcreatescarcityhaveonlyalimitedlifespan.InthecaseoftheUSDinflationbetween1981and2009was50%;anditlost2/3ofitsvaluebetween1961and1981.Whatdoesthismeanexactly?Itmeansthatsomebodywhoinheritedlandfromherparentsin1981worthUSD100kaddedUSD100knominalnetworth–nottakingintoaccountotherfactorscontributingtorealestatepricefluctuations.Somebodywhoearned1981USD100kayearwouldhavetomakeUSD200kpayrollasof2009tobeabletoaffordthesamethingshewasbackin1981.Statisticalrecordsshowthoughthatwageshavenotincreasedinpurchasingpowerparity,butquiteonthecontrarymeltedliketheArcticiceshieldunderclimatechange.TheEconomicPolicyInstitute(EPI)writes:Ignoredistheeasy-to-understandrootofrisingincomeinequality,slowliving-standardsgrowth,andahostofotherkeyeconomicchallenges:thenearstagnationofhourlywagegrowthforthevastmajorityofAmericanworkersoverthepastgeneration.[…]Slowandunequalwagegrowthinrecentdecadesstemsfromagrowingwedgebetweenoverallproductivity—theimprovementsintheamountofgoodsandservicesproducedperhourworked—andthepay(wagesandbenefits)receivedbyatypicalworker.Inotherwords,theAmericanelitehaskeptwithinitsnationmostoftheproductivitygainsforitselfinsteadofsharingwithsocietyatlarge;andhasdonesoevenmorewithrespecttotheROW.ItisinparticularChinawhichfollows



thisAmericanconcept,despitebeingatleastsinceacenturyundeterminedwhetheritshouldbefriendandimitateorhateanddestroyitsPacificadversary.

Bitcoinsadlyrepeatsabrokensystem.Itmakesthosewhohaveaccesstoitwealthy,thosewhodon’tareleftbehindandallthishappensatanenormousecologicalcost,confirmingoncemorethatsocialandenvironmentalproblemsareintrinsicallyconnectedwitheachother.NiallFergusoncametoasimilarconclusionwhenhewroteinTheAscentofMoneyontheoriginsandeffectsofhedging:Thefactneverthelessremainsthatthisfinancialrevolutionhaseffectivelydividedtheworldintwo:thosewhoare(orcanbe)hedged,andthosewhoarenot(orcannotbe).Youneedmoneytobehedged.Whathaschangedthoughisthecurrencylifecycleduration.Whilenationalfiatcurrenciesmighthavelastedcenturiesordecades,Bitcoinwon’tlastthatlongbecauseithasreintroducedaphysicalrepresentationwhichmakesitimpossibletonotrecognizetheexploitationofrelatedresources.Silverandgoldwerethemostwidelyusednaturalresourceswhichweremintedintocoinssince600BC.Thescarcityofthemetalswasrepresentedintheirvalueaspaymentandsowasthevalueofourcurrenciesbytheirrepresentationinthemetals.Itwastheyear1971,whenwebasicallylostthedirectconnectionbetweenourcurrenciesandtheirphysicalrepresentation.TheUSDwasdecoupledfromgoldandallcountriesonthisplanetfollowedensuite,Switzerlandbeingthelastcountrytodecouplefromgoldonlyin1999.Theresultscan’tbemorehighlighted:wehavelostourframeworkofreferenceforwhatweextractfromtheplanet.ThisobservationismostpoignantlyputintowordsbyeconomistE.F.SchumacherwhowroteonlytwoyearslaterinSmallisBeautiful:EconomicsasifPeopleMattered:

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Theillusionofunlimitedpowers,nourishedbyastonishingscientificandtechnologicalachievements,hasproducedtheconcurrentillusionofhavingsolvedtheproblemofproduction.Thelatterillusionisbasedonthefailuretodistinguishbetweenincomeandcapitalwherethisdistinctionmattersmost.Everyeconomistandbusinessmanisfamiliarwiththedistinction,andappliesitconscientiouslyandwithconsiderablesubtletytoalleconomicaffairs–exceptwhereitreallymatters:namely,theirreplaceablecapitalwhichmanhasnotmade,butsimplyfound,andwithoutwhichhecandonothing.[…]Abusinessmanwouldnotconsiderafirmtohavesolveditsproblemsofproductionandtohaveachievedviabilityifhesawthatitwasrapidlyconsumingitscapital.How,then,couldweoverlookthisvitalfactwhenitcomestothatverybigfirm,theeconomyofSpaceshipEarthand,inparticular,theeconomiesofitsrichpassengers?Onereasonforoverlookingthisvitalfactisthatweareestrangedfromrealityandinclinedtotreatasvaluelesseverythingthatwehavenotmadeourselves.Bitcoinhassteppeduptheexploitationofnaturalresourcesandacceleratesthisprocessbytheday.Butithasreintroducedacommodityrepresentationsinceitsvalueispeggedtothepriceofelectricity,whichlikegoldorsilverisaphysicalcommodity.Wewillthereforeagainseedirectly–notonlyindirectly-whathasbeenhiddenfromusforalmost50years:thataneconomicsystem,nomatterbywhichcurrencyitisrepresented,whichisbasedonscarcity,profitextraction,ignoranceandcompetitionwilleventuallyleadtoenvironmentaldegradationandsocialdissolution.

ThreeReasonsWhyBitcoinWon’tLast

ShorteningCurrencyLifeCycle

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Currency From To Physicalrepresentation Value01/18

Silver 600BC Yes- Silver USD554/kg

Gold 600BC Yes- Gold USD42.873/kg

USD- Gold 1792 1971 Yes- Gold

USD- Fiat 1971? No

CNY 1949 No 6.41USD

EUR 2002 No 0.82 USD

Bitcoin 2009 Yes- Electricity USD 11.664



Now,therearethreereasons,whyIbelievethatBitcoinwillbegoneinlatestthreeyearsfromnow.Firstly,itisnotintheinterestoftheChinesegovernmenttoletBitcoingrowintoagenuinerivaltoitsowncurrency.HereIaddmyownpoliticalconspiracytheory,becauseafterallwhatIhaveseendownhereinShenzhen,itismorethanplausiblethatBeijingplaysfortime,assumingthatthealreadyshakenUSeconomywillfalterandcrashearlierthanitsownunderthepressureofthecryptocurrencyrush.DespiteconsideringtobanminingfarmsandhavingdeclaredICOsillegallastSeptembertherearenochangesinsales,deliveryandoperationofminingrigs.WeallknowthatChineseauthoritiesarecapableofexecutingtopdownpoliciessharplyiftheyreallywantto.Butthispolicydoesn’tseemtobeanexecutivepriority.HarbinbornLiuYan,ownerofYutongMiningCorp.,tellsmethattherearenorestrictionswhatsoever.Bitmain’smonthlyproductionvolumestandsat70.000miningrigsandtheyareshippingtobuyersalloverthecountry.ThemanageratDexunlogisticsexplainsthathiscompanyalonedeliversaround10.000Bitmainproducts–notlimitedtominingrigs–aday.Itdoesn’tseemthatBeijinghasmadeamoveyet,butsurelywillonceitsobjectiveisreached.Wewitnessafinancialcyberwarwhichisfueledbybothgreedforpowerandfearoflosingit.Secondly,Chinaandtherestoftheworldcan’taffordtoturnablindeyetotheenormousenergyconsumptionforbothtransactionsandmining.QuartzreportsthatcheapelectricityisamajoradvantageforbitcoinminersinChina.Coal-abundantregionssuchasXinjiangandInnerMongoliahaveinrecentyearstakentocryptominingasanicheapproachtotransformingtheirless-developedeconomies.Bitmainhastakenadvantageofcheapcoal-firedpowerinthosetworegionstobuildseveraloftheworld’slargestminingfacilities.InInnerMongolia’sOrdoscity,localauthoritiesofferthecompanyasubsidizedelectricityrateofjust4UScentsperkilowatthour.That’s30%cheaperthanwhatindustrialfirmsintheareatypicallypay,andwellbelowpricesintheUSandmostEuropeanUnioncountries[of13UScentandmore].TheflourishingofChina’sdigitalminingindustryaccountingfor2/3oftheglobalvolumecanbealsounderstoodasaresultofasystemfailure,i.e.ahighlycentralizedpowergenerationwhichfailstoproduceclosetotheconsumers.AgainQuartz:ThemassivehydropowernetworksinSichuanandYunnanwerebuilttotransferelectricitytotherestofthecountry,butstate-rungridoperatorstoooftenfailtoprioritizerenewableenergyovercoal.In2016,Yunnanwastedastaggering32billionkWh(linkinChinese)ofhydropower,aboutequaltothetotalelectricityconsumptionofDenmarkthesameyear.Buteveniftheconsumptionoffossilfuelsforminingiseliminatedandashifttorenewablesissuccessfulashydropower,geothermalandsolarfarmsinAustria,IcelandandtheUSshow,thereremainimportantquestionstoanswer:whyshouldweanywayconsumehugeamountsofelectricitytosolvetheoreticalcalculations?Whatproductivitygaindoweactuallygenerateforsocietythereby?Don’twesufferfromenormoussystemblindnessifwecan’tcomeupwithanotherproofofworkconcept?Aproofofworkperformedbyamachinewhichyoujustplugintothegridseemstobenoproofatall.Whyshouldtheownerofthatmachineretrieveanyrewardinthefirstplace?Isn’titapervertedconcepttoengagemachinestocreate“fiatprofit”whenactuallyonly



excessconsumptionwhichtranslatestodestructionofnaturalresourcestakesplaceinitspurestform,thatisenergy?Whyaren’tweabletocreateacurrencywhichrewardsvalueaddedtosociety,thatisaproductivebenefittopeopleorplanet,whichdoesnotcomeattheexpenseofoneanother?AndthisleadstothethirdreasonforBitcoin’searlydemise:advancingcomputingpowerandeventuallysingularity.Somepeoplebelievethatsingularityisstillfaroutinspaceandtime.Somedon’tevenknowwhattheconceptentails.ButwecancertainlyassumethatresearchintodeeplearningmicrochipsbycompanieslikeBitmainorIntelwillfurtherspeedupcomputingpower.WhilemostcomputersstilloperatewithaCentralProcessingUnits(CPU),miningrigsandstateoftheartdeeplearningmachinesuseGraphicProcessingUnits(GPU).BothBitmain’sSophonandIntelsNeuromorphicProcessingUnit(NPU)willbeabletoperformcalculationsbeyondthedigitalzero&oneelementsandopenthedoorintotheeraofquantumcomputing.SuchexponentialaccelerationofcomputingpowercanonlyleadtotwooutcomesIreckon.Oneisasingularitywhichisabletosolveallcalculationsinnotime,bringingtheBitcoinsystemtoasuddencrash,becausethecompetitionbetweencomputingunitstoaddnewblockstothechainiseliminated.Thisisinparticularinteresting,ifweassumethatsingularityentailsaself-consciouscollectivenetworkofexistingcomputingpowerasopposedtoonewhichmyfriendVasilyenvisionedasbeingremotelycontrolledbycompanieslikeBitmain.Twoisanever-acceleratingsystemofcalculationswhichcanbeonlycomparedtoPandora’sbox,whichmankindopenedtodevourthisplanet.TheVergewritesthatsomecryptocurrencyentrepreneursbelievethattheswitchtogreenminingsectorsisboundtohappen.Butevenifitdoes,it’sunlikelytotakeplacerightaway.Fossilfuelswillremaincheapfortheforeseeablefuture,andbetterrenewabletechnologiestaketimetodevelop.Untilthen,it’samatterofwhatsocietyvaluesthemost:analternativecurrencythatmaygivepeoplefreedomfrombigbanks—orlesscharitably,wildprofitsoncurrencyspeculationattheexpenseoftheenvironment.Inotherwords,it’samatterofwhathumankindismotivatedby:greedorcompassionfortheenvironment.

3 ReasonsWhyBitcoinWon’tLast

NotininterestofBeijing

Ecologicallynotsustainable

AIchipswillbringsingularity1/21/18 2017©telospi.com 11



Modernmandoesnotexperiencehimselfasapartofnaturebutasanoutsideforcedestinedtodominateandconquerit.Heeventalksofabattlewithnature,forgettingthat,ifhewonthebattle,hewouldfindhimselfonthelosingside.[E.F.Schumacher]Theunderlyingsystemisthusmuchlargerthanjustatransformationoftheenergysectorfromfossilfuelbasedtorenewables.Theenergysectordoesthoughlikenothingelseonthisplanetreflecthumankind’svaluesystem:adistributedandglobalnetworkofsharingorisolatedpatchesofinefficientgenerationandwastefulconsumption.Competitionbasedincentivesinevitablymovetowardscentralizationandtheformationofoligopoliesorworse,amonopoly.ThisisclearlyvisibleinChina’slongtermplansforitsownenergyinfrastructurewhichrelyheavilyoncentralizedandindependentnuclearpower.Bitcoinisaresource(energy)token,butitalsorequiresthatyoucreatemoreoftheresourcetobeabletominethetoken.Oneobserverwrotethatitresemblesanenergyviruswithabuilt-indopaminerewardforitshostsbasedonhowmuchenergytheyfeedit.ThevirusisthoughclearlyinthemindsetandvaluesystemofBitcoinusers.Ifwecontinue,theentireoutputofhumanactivitywillconcentrateonbuildingenergyfarmstofeedbitcoin.Atrajectorywhichdefeatsthepurposeofhavingmorerenewableenergywithwhichwetrytoreplacefossilfuelbasedenergysources.AtrajectorywhichplaysthoughintothehandsofgovernmentslikeChinawhichwanttocreatenationalcryptocurrenciesthatarefueledbyinfinitenuclearpower.Suchacrypto-CNYwouldbeindeedanironricebowlandbringpowergenerationandpoliticalpowerindirectcorrelationuntiltheexternalitiesofgeneratingnuclearpowerhavetobepaid.Weallknow,thatpayingfortheseexternalitiesisevenbeyondthepoliticalhorizonoftheCCP.VisionaryAldousHuxleymighthaveseenthisfuturewhenhewrotein1963inThePoliticsofEcologytheveryfollowing:Someday,letushope,rulersandruledwillbreakoutoftheculturalprison[oflustforpower]inwhichtheyarenowconfined.Someday...Andmaythatdaycomesoon!For,thankstoourrapidlyadvancingscienceandtechnology,wehaveverylittletimeatourdisposal.Theriverofchangeflowseverfaster,andsomewheredownstream,perhapsonlyafewyearsahead,weshallcometotherapids,shallhear,louderandeverlouder,theroaringofacataract.ItisthiscataractwhichIhearwhenaminingrigisstarteduporthedoortoaminingfarmopens.Everynewminingrigconnectedtothegridandthewebacceleratesthedestructionoftheplanetandultimatelyacceleratesourself-destruction.BlockchainforSocialGoodSo,whatoughtwetodo?Whatcanwedo?ZennonKapron,authorofChompingattheBitcoin,islatelyaverybusyandmuchcovetedspeaker.ThestellarriseofBitcoinsvalueagainsttheUSDandthemassiveChinesestakesinthegamehasmadehimoneofthemostsought-afterguestsinmanyeventsthroughouttheworld.HeprovidedthisJanuaryanoverviewofblockchainapplicationswithapositivesocialimpactandcategorizedthemintofourgroups:political,environmental,socialandeconomic.Heelaboratedonafewexamplesandexplainedthattherearelotsofgoodintentions



visiblelikeEthereumestablishingitselfasasubstituteforgovernmentandlawindustryboundcontracts.HeconcludesthatthepotentialapplicationsofBlockchainforsocialgoodarevariedandexciting,howeveritalsohasitslimitations.Blockchainoffersapowerfulmechanismtoincentivizetruth,increasetransparency,andhasthepotentialtomakevariousaspectsofsocietyworkbetter,butitcannotbringaboutchangealone.Inordertobringaboutlastingchange,avarietyofstrategiesandregulationwillberequiredfrombothgovernmentsandcorporations.Aswithanynewanddevelopingtechnology,cybersecurityisofparamountimportance.Blockchainpromisestobedecentralizedandsomewhat‘un-hackable’,yetthetechnologyremainsuntestedatscale.WhatZennonpointsatgoesbeyondtechnology.Itneveristechnologyalonethatbringsaboutchange,butalwaysitsinteractionwithhumanintentionandourunderlyingvaluesystems.Dowewanttechnologytoservebuildingabetter,fairer,oneglobalormanynationalsocieties?AndrecallingmyconversationwithVasilyaboutAlfredAdler’sindividualpsychotherapy,arewemotivatedintheapplicationoftechnologiesbypower,pleasureorpurpose?ItseemsasifBitcoinhasforthetimebeingconfirmthatFreudwaswrong,becausemanisclearlynotmotivatedbypleasureasheclaimed,neitherbypurposeasFranklsaid,butbypowerasFreud’scontemporary,AlfredAdler,explainedinhistheoryofindividualpsychology.Powerpolitics-aswehaveseenbefore–don’tgowellwithenvironmentalprotectionandsolidarity.

HowtoBuildaSustainableCivilization?Wehavetoaskthoughwhatittakestobuildasocietywhichmotivatessocialcohesionandtheprotectionoftheenvironment.NiallFergusonasksthisquestiontoacertainextentinCivilization–TheWestandtheRest.HearguesinaretrospectivePOVthatsixnovelcomplexesofinstitutions

POWERAlfredAdler– IndividualPsychology

PLEASURESigmundFreud- Psychoanalysis

PURPOSEViktorFrankl - Logotherapy

CalibratingMotivation

1/21/18 2017©telospi.com 12



andassociatedideasandbehaviorsdistinguishedtheWestfromtherestandwerecausalfortheEuropeanworlddominanceforthelast500years.Thesekillerapplicationsarecompetition,science,propertyrights,medicine,consumersocietyandworkethic.Ferguson’ssixkillerappsareifwithoutproperguidancebysoundvalueswhatFergussoncallsthem:killerapps.AppswhichexterminatedthepopulationsontheNorthandSouthAmericancontinents,appswhichenslavedAfricaandlargeswathsofAsia,appswhichledtotwoworldwarsandholocaust.Wecanofcourseapplycompetition,science,propertyrights,medicine,consumersocietyandworkethicintheserviceofhumanity,butifwelackcompassionatepurpose,alltheseappsgomad.Andthisisexactly,whatishappeninginparticularinBeijingandShenzhen,whereacommercialcrazeforAIisdrivenbyapoliticalelitewhichismotivatedbyglobaldominationandundoingwhat500yearsofEurocentrismhaveinflictedupontheChinese:thecenturyofhumiliation|百年国耻.AsaresulttheAfricancontinenthasbeenturnedbyChinaintoonelargephysicalmine,whichfuelstheexcavationofavastspiritualvoid.

Itmakesthereforemuchmoresensetotalkaboutsevenlifeappsinstead.Let’sexchangeworkethicwithmeritocracy,eliminatingnepotismandneuroticworkaholics,competitionwithcooperation,ahigherformofplay,sciencewithhumor,becausescienceisaproductofcuriosityandcooperation;andthemadscientistisonewhohasnosenseofhumor;letsexchangepropertyrightswithopensource;theconsumersocietywithabasicincomeandlet’saddeducationandcompassion;thenwehavetheappswhichwewillneedtobuildacommonfuture.Blockchaincanbethetechnologyto



runtheseapps,butweneedtofliptheprinciplesofhumanmotivationinoureconomicsysteminordertomakeitagoodtechnology,anddesigntheproofofworkonthisnewfoundation.ThetheoreticalphysicistFreemanDysononcesaidthattechnologyisagiftofGod.Afterthegiftoflife,itisperhapsthegreatestofGod'sgifts.Itisthemotherofcivilizations,ofartsandofsciences.DespitemysincereconvictionthattechnologycanbeappliedthewayDysonputsit,IwouldarguewithhimanddeclarecompassionandkindnessthegreatestofGod’sgiftsandindeedthemotherofcivilizations.Societieswhichlackcompassionandkindnessturnedthroughouthistoryintomanandbeastdivulgingmonstrosities.Ourscientificandtechnologicalpowershaveincreasedtosuchanextentthatourlackofcompassiontowardtheplanetwillsoonturnagainstourselves.OntheUrgencyofandtheOpportunityforTransformationBitcoinholdsamirrorintoourface,nomatterwhetherSatoshiNakamotodesignedthecurrencydeliberatelybeingpeggedtoelectricityornot.Itsinceptionandrapidproliferationacceleratesourfinancialsystems,shortensthelifecycleofcurrencies,putsenormouspressureonbothnaturalresourcesandenergygenerationinfrastructureandshowswithoutmercythatwehavedesignedoursocietiesonthebasisofscarcity,ignorance,competitionandgreed.WithanincreasingnumberofBitcoinusers,thenegativeimpactonourplanetgrowsexponentiallysincethemechanicsofthesystemmotivatemoreandmorepeopletoliftthemselvesintoahighereconomicstatus,whichinreturnrequiresmoreresources:impact=resources*economicstatus*population(i=r*e*p).Itisinunderthisthreatofextinctionthathumanitycanmanageaturnaroundandrenewitselffromtheverycore.Itisbyfindingacommondenominatorinoursurvivalthatwecanunderstandthatonlyatransformationofourveryownselftowardscompassion,charityandcooperationwillresultinabundanceforall.

ValueSystemsBehindCurrencies

1/21/18 2017©telospi.com 15

Traditional SocialScarcity AbundanceCompetition CooperationGreed CharityIgnorance &systemblindness Compassion&systemawarenessExtractedProfitfromPeople&Planet AddedValuetoPeople&Planet

Notsustainable Sustainable



Videosources:Techcashhouse:DoesBitcoinminingstillpayoff?January1stUpdateGordonGekko:GreedisGoodDesperateHousewivesonBitcoin:Howdoesitwork?WorldEconomicForum:TheelectricityrequiredforasingleBitcointradecouldpowerahouseforawholemonthSourcesonblockchain:https://techcrunch.com/2017/10/16/mapping-the-blockchain-project-ecosystem/https://www.treehugger.com/economics/forget-bitcoin-its-blockchain-might-change-everything.htmlhttps://www.crypto-economy.net/everything-need-know-blockchain-technology/?lang=enSourcesonbitcoinandcryptocurrencies:https://www.metalandthings.com/-insaneretailerofmoneymakingmachineshttps://qz.com/1174091/china-wants-an-orderly-exit-from-bitcoin-mining/http://fortune.com/2017/09/05/china-bitcoin-blockchain-ico-ban/https://news.bitcoin.com/close-look-haobtc-mining-farm-china/http://hackingdistributed.com/2018/01/15/decentralization-bitcoin-ethereum/Sourcesonbitcoinandenergyconsumptionhttps://qz.com/1172632/chinas-dominance-in-bitcoin-mining-under-threat-as-regulators-hit-where-it-hurts-electricity/https://www.theverge.com/2017/12/21/16806772/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-energy-consumption-renewables-climate-changehttps://thebitcoinnews.com/a-visit-to-a-bitcoin-mining-farm-in-sichuan-china-reveals-troubles-beyond-regulation/http://www.mycountryandmypeople.org/01-blog-2133823458/captain-planet-and-the-planeteershttp://world-nuclear.org/information-library/current-and-future-generation/plans-for-new-reactors-worldwide.aspxSourcesonbigdata:SusanEtlinger:Whattodowithallthisbigdata?Sourcesonmoney:

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