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19 October 2011, Mexico City, Mexico
Hydrological Modeling and Impact of Climate changes in the Caribbean Islands of Dominican
Republic, Puerto Rico and Jamaica
Shimelis G Setegn, Ph.D.Postdoctoral Research Scientist
Florida International University, Dep. of Earth and Environment
Project Personnel'sAssefa Melesse (PI)
Francisco NunezDale WebberJorge Ortiz
Felipe Vicioso
The presentation consists ofThe presentation consists of CCS - CCS - Core Science Objectives Study area Study area Modeling toolsModeling tools Modeling ResultsModeling Results Climate change projectionsClimate change projections Impact of climate change on water Impact of climate change on water
resourcesresources
Caribbean Coastal Scenarios
Core Science Objectives Determine spatial and temporal variability in
climate across the region.
Determine geographic & demographic characteristics of catchments – topography, land cover, geology, soil, land
management techniques, population, roads and infrastructure, urban systems, etc.
Consider present & future trends in the nature & distribution of dynamic characteristics – e.g. land cover, management techniques, population,
infrastructure, urban systems.
Caribbean Coastal ScenariosCore Science Objectives (cont.) Simulate seasonal and inter-annual
fluxes of fresh water, sediments, and dissolved loads to coastal zones as a function of climate and catchment characteristics.
Montego Bay
Caribbean Costal RegionsCaribbean Costal Regions
Puerto RicoPuerto Rico Manate and Plata BasinsManate and Plata Basins
Dominican RepublicDominican Republic Haina and Yuna watershedsHaina and Yuna watersheds
JamaicaJamaica Great River and Re CobreGreat River and Re Cobre
STUDY AREA
Islands of interestIslands of interest
Watershed ModelingWatershed Modeling
Many hydrological models are developed to Many hydrological models are developed to describe the hydrology, erosion and describe the hydrology, erosion and sedimentation processes. sedimentation processes.
They describe the physical processes controlling They describe the physical processes controlling the transformation of precipitation to runoff and the transformation of precipitation to runoff and detachment and transport of sediments.detachment and transport of sediments.
Overview of Watershed modelling
Watershed models are used to implement Watershed models are used to implement alternative management strategies in the alternative management strategies in the areas ofareas of
– water resources allocationwater resources allocation– flood controlflood control– impact of land use changeimpact of land use change– impact of climate changeimpact of climate change– environmental pollution controlenvironmental pollution control
SWAT (Soil water Assessment SWAT (Soil water Assessment Tool)Tool)
SWAT is a river basin scale developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields
It is a public domain model actively supported by the USDA Agricultural Research Service at the Grassland, Soil and Water Research Laboratory in Temple, Texas, USA.
The SWAT system (ArcSWAT), embedded within geographic information system (GIS),
can integrate various spatial environmental data, including soil, land cover, climate, and topographic features.
SWAT cont.SWAT cont.
The model is physically based The model is physically based i.e., it requires specific information i.e., it requires specific information
It is computationally efficientIt is computationally efficientSimulation of very large basinsSimulation of very large basins
SWAT enables to study long-term SWAT enables to study long-term impactsimpacts
Phases of hydrologic cycle simulated by Phases of hydrologic cycle simulated by SWATSWAT
Land phase
Water phase
Courtesy: SWAT Manual
Model InputModel Input
GIS input files needed for the SWAT GIS input files needed for the SWAT model includemodel include
the digital elevation model (DEM),the digital elevation model (DEM), land cover, and land cover, and soil layerssoil layers
The DEM can be utilized by ArcSWAT to The DEM can be utilized by ArcSWAT to delineate basin and subbasin delineate basin and subbasin boundaries, calculate subbasin boundaries, calculate subbasin average slopes and delineate the average slopes and delineate the stream network.stream network.
The The land use, soil and Slope land use, soil and Slope layers layers are used to creat and define are used to creat and define Hydrological response units (HRU’s).Hydrological response units (HRU’s).
Metrological DataMetrological Data
The weather variables for driving the The weather variables for driving the hydrological balance arehydrological balance are – precipitation, precipitation, – air temperature, air temperature, – solar radiation, solar radiation, – wind speed and wind speed and – relative humidity. relative humidity.
Model Input Cont.Model Input Cont.
Hydrological dataHydrological data
River Discharge and Suspended sediment loadRiver Discharge and Suspended sediment load
Land ManagementLand Management Management input files include planting, harvest, tillage Management input files include planting, harvest, tillage
operations, and pesticide and fertilizer application.operations, and pesticide and fertilizer application.
Model Input Cont.Model Input Cont.
Model Calibration and EvaluationModel Calibration and Evaluation
The ability of a watershed model is evaluated The ability of a watershed model is evaluated through sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and through sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and model validation.model validation.
For model evaluation we used the goodness of For model evaluation we used the goodness of measures such as NSE, Rmeasures such as NSE, R22, ,
MODELING MODELING RESULTSRESULTS
Puerto Rico, Rio Manati
Time serious graph for calibration period – Rio Manati
Water balance Component Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation 1620
Surface runoff 86
Lateral soil flow 386
Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer) 3
Revap (shallow aquifer => soil/plants) 102
Deep aquifer recharge 5
Total aquifer recharge 94
Total water yield 474
Percolation out of soil 89
Actual evapotranspiration 1067
Potential evapotranspiration 1838
Annual average water balance of the Rio De Manati watershed
MONTHS
RAIN, (mm)
SURF Q, (mm)
LAT Q
Water Yield, (mm)
ET, (mm)
PET, (mm)
1 108.76 4.17 32.9 38.29 67.41 101.332 88.83 5.01 26.28 32.13 76.37 121.583 101.83 4.81 22.5 27.64 118.21 184.684 151.33 7.36 23.39 30.89 116.1 172.32
5 118.01 3.19 26.49 29.68 118.83 188.356 61.9 0.93 19.67 20.61 98.55 203.887 76.59 0.97 14.98 15.94 76.01 204.73
8 145.36 2.99 20.23 23.2 73.26 172.569 187.47 7.18 32.94 40.08 87.54 148.13
10 272.15 29.28 56.65 85.78 87.8 129.211 178.87 13.44 61.68 75 79.9 117.3812 131.44 6.57 48.81 55.29 69.08 97.17
Average Monthly Basin Values of Manati watershed
Area (%)0.0034.141
28.3871.2950.2250.612
51.0780.107
13.0150.0111.127
Land use: Plata Watershed, PR
Puerto Rico – Plata
Time serious graph for calibration period – Rio Plata
Area1.279
46.92217.80010.244
0.0274.9160.0120.296
17.5680.936
Land use: Haina Watershed, DR
Dominican Republic - Rio Haina
Time serious graph for calibration period – Haina Watershed
Water balance Component Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation 2101
Surface runoff 927,63
Lateral soil flow 21
Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer) 215
Revap (shallow aquifer => soil/plants) 17
Deep aquifer recharge 12.33
Total aquifer recharge 246.64
Total water yield 1161.63
Percolation out of soil 250.31
Actual evapotranspiration 890.6
Potential evapotranspiration 1702
Annual average water balance of the Haina watershed
Jamaica, Great River Basin
Time series of observed and simulated monthly flow for calibration (top) and validation (bottom) period at
Lethe station of Great River
Jamaica, Rio Cobre Watershed
The time-series comparison between measured and simulated monthly flow at Rio Cobre Watershed
Water balance Component Annual Average (mm)
Precipitation 1953.0
Surface runoff 102.8
Lateral soil flow 427.7
Groundwater flow (shallow aquifer) 368.8
Revap (shallow aquifer => soil/plants) 9.0
Deep aquifer recharge 19.9
Total aquifer recharge 397.6
Total water yield 899.0
Percolation out of soil 393.5
Actual evapotranspiration 1028.3
Potential evapotranspiration 1579.8
Annual average water balance of the Rio Cobre watershed (1997-2008).
Seasons/months Rainfall
, mm
Surface
runoff,
mm
Lateral
flow, mm
Water
Yield,
mm
AET,
mm
PET,
mm
Average (1997-2008) 154.44 21.68 38.10 79.73 71.50 180.42
Dry (Jan-Mar) 57.72 4.20 11.67 28.24 68.12 180.33
Wet (Aug-Oct) 267.09 52.20 72.15 151.99 77.49 179.79
Monthly mean and seasonal water balance components for the Rio Cobre watershed
Spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration in the Rio Cobre Watershed, Jamaica.
Spatial distribution of water yield in the Rio Cobre Watershed, Jamaica.
Climate ChangeClimate Change
30 August 2010, Gran Melia, Puerto Rico, photo by Shimelis S 30 August 2010, Gran Melia, Puerto Rico, photo by Shimelis S
• GCM’s are numerical coupled models that represent various earth systems including the atmosphere, oceans, land surface and sea-ice and offer considerable potential for the study of climate change and variability.
Climate Change Impact on Water Resources Variability
Climate change scenarios• Scenarios are images of the future, or alternative futures. They are
neither predictions nor forecasts.
• The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) are grouped into four scenario families (A1, A2, B1 and B2) that explore alternative development pathways, covering a wide range of demographic, economic and technological driving forces and resulting GHG emissions.
Center Model Atmospheric resolution (approx)
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (NASA/GISS), USA,AOM 4x3 4 x 3
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA, USA GISS_ModelE-H 4 x 5
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3)
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office United Kingdom
Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 1 (HadGEM1)
1.25 x 1.875
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Norway (BCCR) Bergen Climate Model (BCM2.0) 2.8×2.8
Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis Canada (CCCMA) Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) 3.75× 3.7
Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques France(CNRM) CNRM-CM3 2.8× 2.8
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Australia (CSIRO)
CSIRO Mark 3.0 1.9× 1.9
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Australia (CSIRO)
CSIRO Mark 3.5 1.9× 1.9
Max-Planck-Institut for Meteorology Germany (MPI-M) ECHAM5/MPI-OM 1.9× 1.9
Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn (Germany), (MIUB) ECHO-G 3.75× 3.7
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA ( GFDL) CM2.0 - AOGCM 2.5× 2.0
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA (GFDL) CM2.1 - AOGCM 2.5× 2.0 Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia (INM) INMCM3.0 5.0× 4.0 Institut Pierre Simon Laplace France (IPSL) IPSL-CM4 3.75× 2.5 Meteorological Research Institute Japan (MRI) MRI-CGCM2.3.2 2.8× 2.8 National Centre for Atmospheric Research USA (NCAR) Parallel Climate Model (PCM) 2.8× 2.8
National Centre for Atmospheric Research USA(NCAR) Community Climate System Model, version 3.0 (CCSM3)
1.4× 1.4
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, United Kingdom - UK Met. Office UK (UKMO)
HadCM3 3.75× 2.5
Trends in Climate ChanTrends in Climate Change - Temperaturege - Temperature
Trends in Climate ChanTrends in Climate Change - Rainfallge - Rainfall
Projected Seasonal changes in Rainfall
Changes in stream flow due to changes in precipitation and air temperature for the period 2046-2065 and 2080-2100
Changes in potential and actual evapotranspiration (PET and AET) for the 2046-2065
Annual changes in potential and actual evapotranspiration (PET and AET) for the 2080-2100
Annual changes in soil water storage for 2046-2065 and 2080-2100 period
Changes in surface and ground water for 2046-2065 and 2080-2100 periods
Changes in surface and ground water for 2046-2065 and 2080-2100 periods
Uncertainties in GCM model outputsUncertainties in GCM model outputs
Thank You!Thank You!
30 August 2010, Puerto Rico 30 August 2010, Puerto Rico