1975-1991 DEMOGRAPHYThe Challenge of Population Growth

Demographic Transition

The population of Europe almost doubled between 1850 and 1914

Put pressure on rural land to produce enough food, and on urban housing & institutions

Forced migrations to the west, developing the Americas

Thomas Malthus: population growth will exceed food production; we will starve

Demographic Transition

However, population growth slowed after WWII (minus baby boom in US) Cultural changes: female employment, later age of

childbearing, fewer kids, family planning, older age of marriage

Lower # births in developed countries, high # births in developing ones = almost zero population growth

In developing nations, they actually encouraged large families to grow population, increasing their power

But the economies of the 70s and 80s shocked their countries and power did not come

Negative Population Growth: Europe

Reasons for Developing Demographics

Fertility is declining in developing areas now HIV/AIDS Poorly funded public health Still higher rates than developed

countries Ethnicities from developing countries,

living in developed countries, still experiencing high birth rates—cultural?

Culture dictates some aspects of fertility—which ethnicities have the most kids?

Industrialized Countries

Current fertility levels are so low, in some countries, without immigration, population will seriously decline

Japan: avg. # kids is 1.39; Italy: 1.2 Some European countries give tax

incentives for children Life expectancy is increasing as

fertility is dropping—people staying around longer

Happening more slowly in US—immigration

Scary Demography

95% of all future population growth will be in developing nations

Muslim, African, and South American countries are growing fastest

India and China continue to grow—they contain 1/3 of the world’s population in 2 countries

Over ½ Pakistan’s population is under 16

Results Growing gap between rich and poor

1 billion people live on less than $500 a year; concentrated in Africa, Latin America, and Asia

Growing gap within nations as well; regional The wealthiest 1% in the US own 30% of the nation’s

wealth; our poorest live on less than $5000 a year Environmental threats from population boom;

agricultural and industrial expansion Developing countries hit hardest with this, forcing

industrialization Efforts to improve environment have been

moderately successful in developed countries Collapse—Jared Diamond strikes back…