of 55
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
1/55
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
Copy No
C A B I N E T M I N U T E
Submission
No.
6363
Canberra, Apri l 1989
No. 12416
Aust ra l i an Response
to
the
Greenhouse Effec t and
Related
Climate Change
The
Cabine t agreed
t ha t : -
4
(a) a s t rong commitment i s requi red to address the
greenhouse
i s sue
both na t i ona l l y
and
in te rna t iona l ly ;
(b) a
comprehensive
s t r a t egy
address ing greenhouse
i s sues
be
adopted
compris ing
a co-o rd ina ted core
resea rch program (on reg ional
c l imate model l ing)
plus
a dedica ted
resea rch
grant s
scheme fo r
implementa t ion in
1990-91) and support
for
development
of na t iona l
and
i n t e rna t iona l
responses;
(c) funds be
provided of
1.039
mil l ion
in 1988-89
and
6.752
mil l ion in
1989-90,
with those
amounts to inc lude s t a f f and support cos t s ;
2
This
document is the property of the Australian Government
and
is not to e copied or reproduced
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
[1]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
2/55
C BINET IN CON Fl
DENCE
2.
No. 12416 Contd)
2.
d) a Nationa l
Greenhouse
Advisory
Committee be
es tab l i shed
to
provide
exper t advice on
greenhouse
resea rch
i s sues , inc luding
p r io r i t y
areas and objec t ives for fu r the r resea rch ,
and
t h a t the Committee be se rv iced by the Department
of Arts , Sport , the
Environment,
Tourism and
Ter r i to r ie s
DASETT);
e) Commonwealth ac t ion on
nat iona l
greenhouse
i s sues
be
co-ord inated by
an
in te r -agency
committee
cha i red
by the
Department
of the Prime
Minis t e r and
Cabinet ;
f )
the
Prime
Minis ter i s sue
a
press r e l ease along
the l ine s o f t ha t a t Attachment
A
to the
Submission: and
g) appropr ia te re fe rence to the na t i ona l resea rch
a )
program on greenhouse r e l a t ed
c l ima te
and
environment changes
a lso
be made i n
the sc ience
pol icy s ta tement
to
be de l ive r e d i n
May
1989.
The
Cabinet noted t ha t : -
agreement to
sub-paragraph
l c ) above wi l l
requi re addi t iona l
SL
CSIRO 4
in 1988-89 and
approximately 30
in
1989-90 outs ide SL
con t ro l s ) , D SETT
2 in 1988-89 and 10 SL in
1989-90 and the Bureau
of
Meteorology
5
SL in
1989-90), with
de ta i l s
to
be
s e t t l e d
with
the
Min i s t e r
for Finance; and
. . .
/3
This
document is the property
of
the ustralian Government and is not to be copied or
reproduced
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
[2]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
3/55
C BINET
IN CON Fl DENCE
3.
No. 12416 Contd)
b) the
Minis ter fo r the Arts
Spor t ,
the
Environment, Tourism and
Ter r i to r ie s
would
repor t
back to
Cabinet before the end of 1989 on
fur ther
ac t ion
requi red
to address
greenhouse
c l imate
change
i s sues inc luding
funding
requirements
fo r 1990-91 and
1991-92.
Secre ta ry
to
Cabinet
This document is
the
property
of
the
ustralian Government and is not to be copied or reproduced
CABINET IN CONFIDE
CE
[3]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
4/55
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
Submission No. 63 63_
OR C BINET
Copy No.
Title
Minister
Purpose/Issues
Sensitivity Criticism
Legislation
involved
1
ency:
L..ntical/sign fica
nt
dates
sultation:
Ministers/Depts
consulted
s
there
agreement?
Timing handling of
announcement
Cost
ASL:
AUSTRALIAN RESFONSE
TO THE GREENHOUSE
EFFECT
AND
RELATED CLIMATE
CHANGE
Sena tor the
Hon
Graham Richardson, Minis ter for the
Arts ,
Sport ,
the
Environment,
Tourism
and
Ter r i to r i e s : The
Hon
Barry
Jones ,
MP,
Minis t e r for
Science ,
Customs
and Small
Business : The
Hon Stewart
West,
MP, Minis te r
for
Adminis t ra t ive Services
respond to Cab inet s reques t (Minute No 11674 o f
~ u t 1988) on opt ions
fo r
enhancing
Aus t ra l i an
rch i n to greenhouse
c l imate change
and
t o
e
Aust ra l i a
to
respond
quickly
to poss ib le
s in
the
environment
r e s u l t i ng from inc reas ing
s
of greenhouse gases
in
the
atmosphere .
Prime
Minis te r has
under taken to
provide
dd i t i ona l research funds i f required
(House
of
Represen ta t ives ,
3.11.88) . The
1988
ALP Platform
s t a t e s add i t iona l
research
and po l icy
development i s
requi red .
Greenhouse
re l a t ed
c l imate change i s a
major
global
environmental i s sue . I t is
essen t i a l
t ha t
the
Government has
a
response
s t ra tegy fo r
Aus t ra l i a .
Nil
The c l im a t i c e f f e c t s in the Aust ra l i an
region
must
be
i den t i f i ed now.
We must develop responses and
pro t e c t our i n t e r e s t s i n t e rna t iona l ly .
A-G's ,
DCS H, Defence, DEET,
Finance,
DFAT,
DILGEA,
DPIE,
BM
and C,
DT C, Treasury , ASTEC.
No, see
co-ord ina t ion
comments a t Attachment G
Off ice o f
Government
Information
and Advert i s ing
has
been consul ted . Release of press
s ta tement
by the
Prime Minis ter
along
the l ines of Attachment
A.
DASETT
BOM
CSIRO
Fin Yr
88/89
$1.0 9m
2
4
Fin Yr
89/90
$6.7
52m
10
5
approx
30
) Fin Yr
90/91
Resources
from
199
0/91
onwards
to
be
sub jec t
of a
fu r the r
Cabinet submission
This
document is
the
property o the
ustral ian Government
and is
not
to be
copied
or
reproduced
CABINET I
CONFIDENCE
~
[4]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
5/55
C A B I N E T I N C O N F I D E N C E
Human
a c t i v i t i e s , espec ia l ly ra te s of popula t ion growth,
burning fos s i l
fue l s ,
agr icu l ture and defores ta t ion a re
l eading
to growing concentra t ions of co
2
and
other
greenhouse
gases
(oxides of ni t rogen, CFCs, methane) in
t he
atmosphere.
There
i s
widespread
(even
i f not
un iver sa l )
s c i e n t i f i c agreement
tha t
t h i s
wil l
cause global warming by
re ta in ing
a
h igher
propor t ion of the
sun ' s heat .
In tu rn , sea
l eve l s wi l l r i s e , pa t te rns of r a in f a l l , storms and cyclones
wil l change ( for more de ta i led
informat ion
see
Attachment B).
2. There is
inc reas ing
i n t e rna t iona l
concern
about the
greenhouse e f f ec t and
re la ted
cl imate changes. There i s a l so
increas ing dom estic concern. Cabinet recognised t h i s
when
it
reques ted opt ions to enhance Aust ra l ian research . To avoid
1
long term dele ter1ous soc1a
,
econom1c
and
env1ronmental
e f fec t s , Aust ra l ia must:
(a)
a c c e l e r a t e
i t s
research e f fo r t s to unders tand the
impl ica t ions of the
greenhouse
e f fec t
for Aus t ra l i a ' s
c l imate ; and
(b) develop
long
term
s t r a t eg ie s to minimise the damage
caused
by
these changes.
3 . Aust ra l i an
greenhouse
re la ted
research
was surveyed by
the
Department
of the
Arts ,
Spor t , the
Environment, Tourism
and Ter r i to r i e s
DASETT) in
1988.
Some
research i s being
under taken
by the Commonwealth Sc i en t i f i c and
Indus t r i a l
Research Organisa t ion
CSIRO)
and the
Bureau of
Meteorology
BOM).
However,
there is littl
o ther s pe c i f i c
greenhouse
research
(see Attachment C).
Aus t ra l i a ' s research program
must
be
acce le ra t ed
i f
we are to unders tand the e f fec t s of the
greenhouse
phenomenon in
the
southern hemisphere genera l ly and
spec i f i ca l l y on
the
Aust ra l ian
cl imate
and
environment.
4.
In te rna t iona l
ac t ion
on
greenhouse i s sues has recen t ly
become focused
through an In tergovernmenta l
Panel on
Climate
Change
(IPCC),
es tab l i shed j o i n t l y by the World Meteorological
Organisa t ion
WMO) and
the
United Nations
Environment
Programme UNEP) in
1988.
The United
Nations
General
Asse
rrb ly
and
the OECD,
among other i n t e rna t iona l fora , are
a lso
address ing
greenhouse and
c l imate
change mat te rs .
5.
Unless
A us t r a l i a par t i c i pa t e s in
these
de l ibe r a t i ons , we
r i sk
having fo i s ted
upon
us po l i c i e s which wil l
pre jud ice
our
i n t e rna t iona l and
domestic
economic i n t e r e s t s in agr icu l ture ,
CABIN ET 1 N CON
Fl
DENCE
[5]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
6/55
CABINET IN-CONFIDENCE
fo re s t ry ,
t r a ns por t , energy and manufacturing e t c .
6.
Most i n t e rna t iona l research
i n to
the greenhouse
e f fec t
derives from and
focuses upon the nor thern hemisphere .
Aust ra l ia i s one of
the few
count r ies in the southern
hemisphere capable of
undertaking the necessary
research and
playing a
leading
ro le
in
the development of i n t e rna t iona l
s t r a t egy .
7. Regiona l ly ,
New
Zealand, Japan and the
Republ ic
of Korea
have
expressed i n t e r e s t in col labora t ing with Aust ra l ia on
greenhouse
i ssues .
CONSIDER TION
OF
ISSU S
8. Aust ra l i a must:
a)
develop regional c l imate
models;
b) predic t regional c l imate changes;
c)
i de n t i f y consequent environmental and
socio-economic
impacts;
d) ensure tha t i n t e rna t iona l research t akes in to
account southern hemisphere concerns ;
e)
pa r t i c ipa t e in
in te rna t iona l
research
programs such
as the World Climate Research Frograrnrne and t he
In t e rna t iona l Geosphere-Biosphere
Programme
IGBP);
f )
formulate
pol icy
responses
to
these
changes;
and
g) formulate pol icy
responses
to reduce the bui ld-up
of
greenhouse gases .
We cannot
e f fec t i ve l y
assess greenhouse impacts
or
formulate
po l icy
responses wi thout
a
predic t ive
capac i ty , which
we l ack .
9. Current support
fo r
greenhouse
research i s inadequate:
a) Aus t ra l i an
Research
Council
funding
i s i n su f f i c i en t
fo r
greenhouse
research . The Council cannot fund
non-educat ional
i n s t i t u t i o n s eg
CSIRO
and
BOM);
b)
CSIRO has d iver ted 2m from
o ther projec t s
but
cannot
fur the r rea l loca te appropr ia ted funds without damaging
i t s e f fo r t s in o ther equal ly high p r i o r i t y areas ;
c) OM es tab l i shed
the National
Climate
Centre
from
with in
exis t ing resources in 1983, and has committed
maximum poss ib le e f fo r t to
the
c l imate i s sue s ince
the
es tabl i shment of the World
Climate
Programme
in
1979. BOM's cl imate networks and data banks must
be
upgraded
i f
t i s to
meet
c l imate monitor ing
requirements in the 1990s. I t cannot d ive r t
funds
CABINET-IN-CONFIDENCE
[6]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
7/55
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
4
to s t rengthen i t s research;
(d)
othe r Government
research programs
(eg
adminis te red
by
the
Departments o f
Primary Indus t r i e s
and
Energy
and Heal th and
Community
Services) address
greenhouse i s sues
only
i nd i r ec t ly .
10. Furthermore, greenhouse research
must
be
co-ord ina ted
i f
Aust ra l ia
is
to
develop
an
e f fec t i ve s t r a t egy .
STR TEGY
11.
We propose
the fol lowing
research
s t r a t egy se t out a t
Attachment D and
supplemented by Attachments
E
and
F):
(a)
fund an acce le ra t ed program of modell ing of regional
c l imate changes by CSIRO
and
BOM (annual funding o f
3.462m (with 0.405m in
1988/89)
p lus one of f
expendi ture on cap i t a l equipment o f 1.670m); and
(b) es t ab l i sh a Nat iona l Greenhouse Advisory Committee
to provide
exper t s c i e n t i f i c
advice
to
Government
on
greenhouse
i s sues genera l ly
and,
in p a r t i c u l a r ,
advice on
p r io r i t y
areas fo r
fur the r
greenhouse
research bas ic sc ience , impacts and
responses) and
se t
ob jec t ives
fo r a dedica ted
research
gra n t s
scheme,
with a
view
to
having
a
scheme
opera t iona l
in
1990/91. The
Committee
would be
serv iced
by
DASETT.
Annual
admin i s t ra t ive cos t s
of
the
Committee,
inc luding es tabl ishment , s a l a r i e s
and on
cos t s for the s e c r e t a r i a t are
0.086m
in 1988/89 and
0.
634m in 198 9/9 0.
(Funding
from
199
0/91 onwards
w i l l be the sub jec t of a fu r the r submiss ion;
however, i t i s proposed a t t h i s s tage
tha t the
gran t s
scheme
be
1.5m
in
1990/91
r i s i n g
to
3.0m
in
1991/92
with
annual
admin i s t ra t ive cos t s fo r the
Committee and scheme of 0.714m).
This
s t ra tegy i s
designed to
complement
the
sc ience
i n i t i a t i v e s
agreed
to in
Minute No.l2289
of
6
March
1989 and a
Nat iona l
Climate
Program
being
developed by
BOM in
consu l t a t ion with CSIRO and DASETT, and othe rs .
12.
This
wil l
permi t us to develop pol icy
and adminis t ra t ive
i n i t i a t i v e s (funding of 0.148m in
1988/89
and 1.006m in
1989/90
- w i t h ant ic ipa ted
funding
o f 1.006m in
1990/91 and
0.589m in
1991/92)
to address
the
causes
and impacts
of
the
greenhouse
e f f ec t within Aust ra l i a and to
p a r t i c i p a t e
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
[7]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
8/55
CABINETsiN CONFIDENCE
e f f e c t ive ly in major
in te rna t iona l
greenhouse a c t i v i t i e s . An
in te r -agency
committee (sponsored
by DASETT
and
BOM and
cha i red by DASETT w i l l co-ordinate
greenhouse i s sues and
ensure
l i a i s on
with
bodies
such
as DPIE and DFAT,
having
important
r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s fo r aspec ts
of
pol icy formula t ion .
Co-operat ion with the Sta t e s w i l l cont inue us ing e x i s t i ng
Commonwealth/State mechanisms
such as
m in i s t e r i a l counci l s .
13.
As t h i s
i s
a
global
problem Aust ra l i a must
r ep resen t
southern
hemisphere
i n t e r e s t s in in te rna t iona l fo ra .
Spec i f i c
funding
is necessary
for
the
WMO/UNEP
IPCC
Aus t ra l i an
input
to be co-ordina ted j o i n t l y
by
OM and DASETT ,
the
UNEP
Climate Impact Stud ies Programme, and
the
IGBP in p a r t i c u l a r
( funding
o f
0.100m
in
1988/89 and 0.280m
in
1989/90
- w i t h
ant ic ipa ted
funding
of
0.250m in
1990/91
and
0.050m in
1991/92) , de ta i l s a t Attachment D.
OPI IONS
14. There are two opt ions:
{a) cont inue the e x i s t i ng low l eve l ,
ad
hoc
approach
to
r esea rch , impact assessment and response development .
In essence , t h i s
ignores
the problem and r e s t s
upon
the assumption t ha t a so lu t ion acceptable
to
Aust ra l i a
w i l l
be
found
i n t e rna t iona l ly .
Such
inac t ion
wil l
be
p o l i t i c a l l y damaging;
or
(b)
implement
the program
ou t l ined
in paragraphs
11-13
above and
de ta i led in
Attachments
D
E and F .
15.
Action
i s requi red now:
(a)
i n t e rna t i ona l l y ,
governments are
recognis ing the
need
for a c o ~ r d i n t e d response.
Heads o f
Government
met in
The
Hague on 11 March.
(The
re su l tan t dec la ra t ion , which Aust ra l ia s igned, c a l l s
for urgent i n t e rna t iona l act ion
to combat
any
fur the r
warming of the atmosphere.) There are two
fu r the r i n t e rna t iona l m in i s t e r ia l meetings l a t e r
t h i s
year .
Aust ra l ia
must
ac t ,
and be seen
to
be
ac t ing ,
with
the same urgency. We must
be
able to
press
our
cons iderable t rade and domest ic i n t e r e s t s
as
i n t e rna t iona l
ac t ion
proceeds;
(b) as
greenhouse
research develops i n t e rna t iona l ly t he
demand
fo r
spec ia l i s t s
i s
inc reas ing .
Aust ra l i a w i l l
be
unable to compete for
t he i r
se rv ices un les s
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
[8]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
9/55
c )
C INET1N CONFIDENCE
greenhouse
research resources a re vas t ly enhanced;
and
p o l i t i c a l l y ,
the
Federa l
Government must
be
seen
to
be
t ak ing dec i s ive and p o s i t i v e ac t ion on greenhouse
i s sues s imi la r to our ac t ion
in implementing
ozone
pro tec t ion
measures ) .
EMPLOYMENT CONSIDERATIONS
16. The program
proposed
w i l l
require
approximately 30
e x t r a
s t a f f
fo r CSIRO outs ide
ASL
c on t ro l s ) , 5 fo r BOM, and 10 fo r
DASETT
(12 from 1990/91) ,
to
be
discussed
with the Minis te r
for Finance.
FINANCIAL CONSIDERATIONS
17.
The
proposed program (to be appropr i a t ed to DASETT w i l l
cos t
1.039m
in
1988/89 and
6.752m
in 1989/90. (Ongoing
funding
from
1990/91 w i l l
be the sub jec t
of a
fu r t h e r cab in e t
submiss ion
- wi th an t i c ipa ted cos t s
of 6.932m
in 1990/91 and
7.815m
in
1991/92.) J::A3tails
of cos t ings a re
summarised in
Attachment D.
COMMUNICATION
18. We
propose
t ha t the Prime
Minis te r
i s sue a media
s ta tement announcing the research i n i t i a t i v e (as
ou t l ined
in
Attachment A as soon
as
poss ib le
a f t e r
the dec i s ion i s taken.
The
s t r a t e g y
ou t l i ne
a t
Attachment
A,
Appendix
1)
pr imar i ly
sugges t s
themes
fo r
responses to
media o r o ther
fol low-up
i nqu i r i e s
and
does not envisage a
major campaign.
A longer
term educa t ion campaign
to
r a i s e community awareness of the
greenhouse
i s sue
and
gain support fo r Government
a c t i v i t i e s
in
the area w i l l be submit ted to the M i n i s t e r i a l Committee on
Government Information and
Advert i s ing
for
approva l . I t i s
envisaged t ha t
such
an educa t iona l campaign
wi l l
include
brochures , school k i t s and s imi la r ma te r i a l . I t
i s
a l s o
l i ke ly to recommend
fu r t h e r greenhouse
conferences .
RECOMMENDATIONS
19.
We
recommend t ha t Cabinet :
(a) agree t h a t a s t rong
commitment
i s
requi red to
address the
greenhouse
i s sue both na t iona l ly and
i n t e rna t iona l ly with
co-ord ina t ing
r e s pons ib i l i t y to
be with the Minis te r
fo r
the Arts , Spor t ,
the
Environment, Tourism and
Ter r i t o r i e s ;
CABINET 1 N CONFl DENCE
[9]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
10/55
CABINET1IN CONFIDENCE
(b)
agree to a comprehensive s t ra tegy
to
addre ss
greenhouse i s sues compris ing
a co-ordina ted core
research program (on regional c l imate
modell ing)
plus a
dedica ted
research
gran t s scheme
fo r
implementat ion in 1990/91) and support f o r
development of nat ional
and
in te rna t iona l
responses ;
(c)
agree to expending 7.79lrn (which
inc ludes
s t a f f and
suppor t
cos ts )
dur ing
1988/89 and 1989/90:
19 8 8/8 9 1 . 0 39m
1989/90
6.7
52m
(d) note
tha t the
fol lowing add i t iona l
resources wil l
be
r equ i red
in
subsequent years inc luding s t a f f and
suppor t
cos t s ) :
1990/91
1991/92
6.9
3 m
7 .815m
e ) agree to
es tab l i sh ing a Nat iona l Greenhouse
Advisory
Committee
to
provide exper t advice
on
greenhouse
i s sues , inc luding
p r i o r i t y
areas and ob jec t ives fo r
fur the r research ( to
be serv iced by DASETT};
f) agree t ha t Commonwealth
ac t ion on greenhouse i s sues be
co-ord ina ted by an in te r -agency committee sponsored
j o i n t l y
by
DASETT
and
BOM
and
cha i red
by
DASETT;
(g)
note
t ha t
agreement to recommendation (c) w i l l
requ i re add i t iona l ASL (CSIRO 4 in 1988/89 and
approximately 30
in 1989/90 outside ASL con t ro l s ) ,
DASETT 2 in 1988/89
and 10
ASL in 1989/90 and BOM 5
ASL
in
1989/90)
with de ta i l s to
be
se t t l ed with t he
Minis te r
fo r Finance;
(h)
note t ha t the
Minis te r
for the
Arts , Spor t ,
the
Environment , Tourism and Te r r i t o r i e s w i l l r e por t
back to Cabinet
before the
end of 1989 on
fur the r
act ion requi red
to address greenhouse
c l imate change
i s sues , inc luding funding requirements fo r 1990/91
and
1991/92; and
i )
agree to
the Prime
Minis ter i s su ing
a
pres s
re l ease
along
the l ines of Attachment A.
Graham
Richardson
29 March
1989
Barry Jones
29
March 1989
Stewar t West
30 March 1989
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
[10]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
11/55
DR FT MEDI
RELEASE
GOVERNMENT
NNOUNCES 7.8 MILLION
GREENHOUSE STR TEGY
Government support
fo r a nat ional research program
on
greenhouse r e l a t e d
c l imate
and environment changes was
announced today
by
the
Prime
Minis ter .
7.8 mil l ion
wi l l
be
provided during 1988/89 and 1989/90
for
r esea rch
and pol icy suppor t . A Nat iona l Greenhouse Advisory
Committee
of up to s ix
exper t s
w i l l
be
appointed to
provide
exper t s c i e n t i f i c
advice to
the
Government on
greenhouse
i s sues . A
key t a sk
for the Nat iona l Greenhouse
Advisory
Committee w i l l be to provide advice on p r i o r i t y areas
f o r
fu r t he r
greenhouse
research
(bas ic s c ience ,
impacts
and
responses) and se t ob jec t ives fo r a
dedicated
research gran t s
scheme, with a view to
the
scheme
ge t t ing
underway in 1990/91.
The
Committee
w i l l a l so promote publ ic unders tanding o f
)
greenhouse i s sues .
The Prime Minis ter
sa id 'The
greenhouse
i s sue
i s one of the
most severe
environmental
c r i s e s fac ing
Aus t ra l i a and t he
world. Research i n to
the greenhouse e f fec t i s c ruc i a l .
Without t Aust ra l i a w i l l not be
able
to
ident i fy
and adapt t o
environmental changes caused
by the
greenhouse
e f f ec t . A
na t iona l greenhouse research
program
i s
pa r t
of t h i s
Government 's commitment
to pro t e c t our
envi ronment .
The
Government
would
prov ide 5.54 mil l ion during
1988/89
and
1989/90 to CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
as
p a r t of the
na t iona l greenhouse
research program.
As p a r t
of
the na t iona l
greenhouse
research
program
the
Government w i l l
suppor t
the World Climate Impact Studies
)
Programme
being
undertaken
by the
United Nat ions
Environment
Programme and w i l l a l so
examine
the d e s i r a b i l i t y of
e s t a b l i s h ing a comprehensive nat ional c l imate
program
l inked
i n to the World Meteorologica l Organisat ion World Climate
Programme
and
the
Second
World
Climate Conference in
1990.
Funds
wi l l a l so
be provided to the
AcadeiT
of Science
to
a s s i s t the In t e rna t iona l Geosphere-Biosphere Program. This
program
s tud ies
the
i n t e rac t i ve
phys ica l , chemical
and
b io log ic a l processes t ha t
regu la te
the t o t a l ea r th
system.
These
i n i t i a t i v e s
w i l l
a s s i s t
A u s t r a l ia s
ac t ive
par t i c i pa t i on
in i n t e rna t iona l work on greenhouse
i s sues , inc luding the
development of po l icy responses to reduce the cont inuing
bu i ld -up
in
the atmosphere of
greenhouse
gases ,
and to
dea l
with the consequences
of poss ib le
c l imate and sea l e v e l
changes .
The Prime Minis te r sa id 'Ongoing
funding
requirements fo r the
greenhouse s t r a t e g y f o r 1990/91 onwards
wil l
be considered
by
the Government l a t e r
t h i s year .
CABINET 1 N CONFl DENCE
[11]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
12/55
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
MEDI STR TEGY OUTLINE
TT CHMENT A
APPENDIX
Because the
media s ta tement de l ibe r a t e ly does not
at tempt to sugges t
the research
program i s a s o lu t ion to the
greenhouse e f f e c t
or to dress up the
program as
a major
s t r a t egy
e i the r
of
which
claims
could
lead
to
media
and
publ ic
c r i t i c i sm) the pr imary
communication s t ra tegy
i s not
to
under take a proac t ive follow-up campaign.
There
wi l l
be media i n t e r e s t and, as
a
r e su l t
t
i s
recommended t ha t when Minis ters respond to reques ts
f o r
i n t e rv iews , ta lk-back
appearances,
e t c , the fol lowing po in t s
be borne in
mind:
1 . The
r esea rch
wi l l be
prac t i ca l and peop le -o r i en ted , eg:
research to pre d ic t
the
l i ke l y cl imate changes
in
pa r t i cu l a r
areas
research
on what the
poss ib le
e f f ec t s of the cl imate
changes
may
be:
what
wi l l
the
e f f ec t s be
on
a gr i c u l tu r e : wi l l
farming areas
need to change
crops / farming
techniques ; how
wi l l
weeds/pes ts
be
a f fec ted ;
wi l l
presen t s to rm water
dra inage
and
dam
systems
cope;
wi l l s o i l eros ion and s a l i n i t y problems
inc rease ;
wi l l coas ta l
eros ion i nc rease .
2.
The
ex ten t
and
e f fec t s of greenhouse cl imate change need
to be more r e l i ab l y pred ic t ed to prevent bad p lann ing .
Knee- jerk
reac t ions
now
based on the
r ecen t
scenar ios
could be very
expensive eg much more s t r i ngen t
bu i ld ing
regu la t ions
for
both r e s iden t i a l and commercial
prope r t i e s ) .
e need to be more
ce r t a i n
exac t ly what
ac t ion i s r equ i red to ensure
money
and e f fo r t are not
wasted.
The
p a r a l l e l
between the
proposed research and
the
value
of Census da ta fo r fu tu re planning could
be
mentioned.
3. The r esea rch i s
not
the f i r s t or only th ing being done
ozone protec t ion
measures
are being
implemented.
4. The r esea rch wi l l con t r ibu te to
the
g loba l body
of
knowledge
on the
sub jec t and wi l l help ensure Aust ra l i an
dimensions
are taken
in to
account when
i n t e rna t i ona l
or
regional organ i sa t ions are cons ider ing
t h e i r
responses to
the
problem.
5.
The t rade and economic
aspects of the
greenhouse
i ssue
should be played
down
as emphasis
on
them
might lead
to
c r i t i c i sm t ha t the Government i s ca te r ing to
sec t i ona l ,
moneymaking
i n t e r e s t s
r a the r
than
protec t ing the qua l i t y
of
l i f e
of
a l l Aust ra l i ans .
CABIN ET 1 N CON
Fl
D ENCE
[12]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
13/55
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
14/55
C I N E I N - C O N F I D E M J . .
=
v H M J m T . B
TH GREENHOUSE EFFE T
KEY F CTS
1 . The a tmospher ic concen t r a t ion of seve ra l gases
s
increas ing
f a s t - l eve l s o f carbon dioxide , t he most
impor tan t
greenhouse gas , a re expected to i nc rease
30
percen t n
t he
next
50
yea rs .
2
~ T h e . . . b u i - - l d - u p ofi-greenhouse 'gase
s-coui-d
-ncrea S'e
bhe
0
E a r t h s sur face t empera ture by between 1 .5 and 4.5 C by the
year
2030:
(a) t h i s
w i l l
have a major e f f e c t on cl imate - dur ing
t he l a s5 Ice
Age,
t he E a r t h s t emperature was only
about 5 C colde r than t i s
now;
(b)
n nor thern l a t i t udes , win te r s
w i l l
be
s ho r t e r and
wet t e r ,
summers longer and
dr i e r ;
sub t rop ica l
reg ions
w i l l become
even
dr i e r
than they
are
now;
t r op i ca l ones even wet t e r ;
(c) t hese changes
w i l l
have
subs tan t i a l
bu t
unpred ic tab le
e f f ec t s on ag r i cu l t u r e and na tu r a l
ecosystems;
and
(d) as t he oceans warm
up
and expand, sea
l eve l s w i l l
r i se , l ead ing to severe f looding over low- ly ing
l and.
3 . Climat ic changes of
t h i s type w i l l l ead to l a r ge
reg iona l changes
n
s o i l
mois ture , increased
dese r t i f i c a t i on ,
coas ta l
f looding
and
eros ion, s a l i n i t y
problems,
s torm
damage
and ser ious d i s rup t ion to coas t a l se t t l ement s and a c t i v i t i e s .
) .
These
changes
w i l l
be
subs tan t i a l
and
are
l i ke ly t o
occur
randomly.
There w i l l
be inc reased c l ima te
va r i a b i l i t y
and d i s r up t i on wel l
befo re
2030.
:IMPACTS
5. The changes
w i l l
have major
environmental and
socio-economic impacts
fo r
Aus t r a l i a . Sectors l i k e l y
to
be
a f fec ted
inc lude:
(a) Agr icu l tu re
A
warmer
c l ima te
i s
l i ke ly t o move t he a reas
su i t ab le
fo r
growing
spec i f i c
crops , such as wheat, towards
t he
po l e s . I f s o i l s
in
t hese a reas a re poorer ,
yie lds w i l l
f a l l . Marginal
ag r i cu l t u r e - as pr ac t i s ed , f o r
example,
n
t he
drought-prone Sahel - w i l l probably s u f f e r most
because o f d i f f i c u l t i e s
n
adapt ing to
t he
new
condi t i ons .
Changes
in
ag r i cu l t u r e w i l l , in t u r n , produce
cascade
e f f e c t s
throughout
soc ie ty ,
a l t e r i n g
t he
v i a b i l i t y
o f
farming, _ a g r i c u l t u r a l employment, commodity
pr i ce s ,
and
p a t t e r n s o f
world
t r ade .
CABINET IN CONFIDENCE
[14]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
15/55
CABIN
IN CON
Fl
E l \
C B M E N T
B
b) Natural
ecosystems
Changes
in
natura l
ecosystems wil l inc lude expansion of
grass l and
and
de s e r t areas with fores ted areas shr inking
and
moving polewards . Problems
such
as s o i l erosion
could become more acute .
c) Urban i n f r a s t ruc tu re
warmer
cl imate might make some
c i t i e s
unbearably hot .
w e t t e r -
o r - d r i : e r - c 1 : i m a t e - w i l l - - a f f e c t - w a t e r - u s e ~ a n d
long- te rm planning,
perhaps
making l a rge
reservoi rs
o r
o the r pro j ec t s use less
long before
t he i r
normal
50-year
l i f e t ime had elapsed .
d) Por t s and c oa s t a l communities
As the oceans expand, sea
l eve l s
wi l l r i s e caus ing
f looding
o f low- lying a reas . While r i che r na t ions
can
a f fo rd
to
pro t ec t themselves
as
the Dutch
have done
for
centur ies)
poorer
na t ions
wil l
have
no
choice
bu t
to
lose
l a rge areas of prec ious l and
to
the sea .
Most o f A u s t r a li a s popula t ion i s l oca ted on o r near t he
coas t . Poss ib le impacts range from extensive commercial
and personal
proper ty
damage, to
dis rupt ion to
shipping ,
t r ade , f i s h ing
and
l o s s
o f
beaches.
e)
Health
Trop ica l d i seases wi l l become more widespread, eg
malar i a and dengue fever , and mor ta l i ty o f the aged in
extreme weather events wi l l
increase .
f)
Energy
In t e rna t i ona l remedial
act ion , eg moves away
from
fo s s i l
fue l usage, could
have
s i gn i f i can t e f f ec t s upon
the
Aus t ra l ian
economy.
6.
Some
o f
the problems
discussed
above
a l ready a f f ec t
many
count r i es .
Global
warming wi l l
exacerbate
them, dis loca t ing
bommunities, dis rupt ing
t rade ,
genera t ing urgent
a i d demands,
and caus ing
i n t e rna t i ona l
t ens ions and conf l i c t s .
7 . Without de t a i l ed resea rch t
wil l
be imposs ible to
formulate responses
to
the
greenhouse
e f f ec t
o r
to
minimise
i t s impact upon
our
environment and economy.
8.
Government planning and
pr iva te decis ion making has long
assumed cl imate s t a b i l i t y .
Western soc i e t i e s
in
pa r t i cu l a r ,
are locked
in to
i ndus t r i a l and
agr i cu l t u ra l p rac t i ces
and
l i f e s ty l e s
which genera te greenhouse gases .
9.
For tuna te ly some
problems
which f low from the greenhouse
e f fec t a re
al ready
under s tudy eg land degradat ion ,
coas ta l
management,
popu la t ion
pressures .
10.
Act ion
i s underway
o r
proposed
i n t e rna t i ona l l y
to :
a) use energy b e t t e r ;
.CABIN ET 1 N CONFl DENCE
.
[15]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
16/55
CABIN
IN ONFIDENe rmmrr s
(b) reduce
f o s s i l
fue l use;
(c) encourage r e fo r e s t a t i on and discourage l and
c l ea r i ng ;
(d)
develop
laws
fo r
p ro tec t ion
o f t he
atmosphere ;
(e)
con t ro l
t h e product ion
and use o f ozone
dep le t ing
subs tances .
More
de ta i l ed
---nformatron i-s -conta-in-ed
-in4:he-unteU:-Nati-ons
Environmental Program paper which
fo l lows.
CABIN
ET 1
N CON
Fl
DENCE
[16]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
17/55
T T C H M E N T B
CABIN _ .IN CONFIDENC
PPENDIX 1
UNITED NATIONS
ENVIRONMENT PROGRAMME
UNEP Environment Brief No 1
the changing
tmos ere
Chemical pollution
is changing
the
structure of the Earth s atmosphere. threatening
t6 alter the climate and expose human populations to higher levels of dangerous
ultraviolet radiation. This publication.
the
first in a series of UNEP briefing
documents. summartzes
what
is
known about
the two
major
effects involved:
the build-up of
greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere. and damage to the ozone layer.
J
Key facts
he
greenhouse
effect
the atmospheric concentration of st>veral gases Is
Increasing
fast ... levels of
carbon
dioxide. the most
Important greenhouse
gas. are ex-pected to Increase
30
percent
In the next
50 years
this
build-up
of gases Is likely to Increase the
Earth s surface temperature by between 1.5 and
4.5
c by the year 2030
this
would be
suffici ent to have a major effect
on
climate
.. .
during the last
Ice Age.
the Earth s
temperature was only about 5 colder than t Is
now
n
northern latitudes. winters would be shorter and
wetter, summers longer and
drier
... sub-tropical
regions might become
even
drier than
they
are
now
and tropical ones even wetter
these changes would
have major
but
unpredictable
effects
on agriculture
and natural eco-systems
as the oceans wanned
up
and
expanded.
sea levels
would
rise
leading
to severe f1oodtng over low-level
land
there
is an urgent need for
International
action to
minimiZe the future greenhouse warming and Its
social effects
he
ozone
layer
chemicals
produced by tndustr1al activity
are
Interfering with
the
way ozone Is
created and broken
down.
threatening
to reduce Its
concentration
in
the
upper
atmosphere
because ozone filters out much of the Sun s
ultraviolet
radiation
. human
populations
may soon
be
exposed to
higher levels of a potentially
dangerous form of radiation
overall ozone levels have not yet fallen -
though
measurements made
during
the Antarctic
spring
reveal
that
levels
there
have dropped
4{)
percent
n
just a few years
scientists
predict
that
tf
chemicals
continue to be
produced
at
current rates,
ozone levels
tn
the
upper
atmosphere will fall by a
few percent durtng
the first
half of
the
next century
this could lead to Increased skin cancer and eye
disease, smaller
crop
and timber
yields.
and damage
to
ocean
ecology
a
convention to
protect
the
ozone layer has
been
signed by many states but has yet to come Into force
...
further
International action Is planned to restr1ct
the production
and
use
of the
most
seriously
Implicated
chemicals
C S I N E ~ Q E N C E
[17]
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
18/55
CABINE siN CONFIDENCE
A'PTACHt-lENT B
APPENDIX 1
The greenhouse problem
The atmosphere
that surround
s
the
Earth
plays
a critical role in
maintaining even
temperatures
on
the Earth s
surface.
Like
the glass
in
a greenhouse . the
atmosphere
absorbs some
of the
long-wave
radiation emitted by the Earth. and
radiates energy back at
the
Earth. If
the atmosphere were not present.
temperatures on
the
Earth
would
be
much
lower than they are
.
But Industrial activity
is
changing
the atmosphere 's
structure
. s
gases
like
carbon
dioxide are
produced
and released into
the
atmosphere. they absorb
more of
the Earth s radiation. and
return
more
of
t
back to the Earth . This
ergy. which
would
otherwise
cape harmlessly
I
nto space.
Is
already Increasing the
Earth s
surface
temperature. though so far
rbon dioxide : more and more
1750-100
-
I
150
I
I
1
40
I
I
/
130
120
I
-
10
T
1800 1900 2000
u) only small
amounts
(about 0 .5 ' C
over the past 120 years).
Carbon d ioxide is the most
i
mportant
of the greenhouse
gases
.
- d is produced
primarily
when
il
fuels
are
burnt to provide
power. Levels
of
ca
rbon
dioxide in
the atmosphere
have already
Increased
by
some
5
percent since
the
Industrial
Re\'olution: they
are
e;>;pected
to increase
by a
further
30
percent
in the next
50 years.
Many
other gases
also have a
greenhouse
effect. These include
mtrous oxide
(laughing
gas).
methane.
ozone
and chem icals
us
ed
in
refrigerat
ion and other industries
called chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs
for short) . The concentrations
of
these gases in the atmosphere are
much lower
than
that
of
carbon
dioxide
but
they are increasing.
and
many of them
produce
a very strong
greenhouse effect.
Sc
ientists
calculate that
over the next
half
century or
so the
temperature rise
produced
by increasing
concentrations
of carbon dioxide
will be matched by the effect of the
other
greenhouse
gases. The carbon
dioxide effect. in other
words
. will be
doubled.
How much is the temperature
likely
to rise?
By
making
assumpt
i
ons about
how
much
of
each gas
is
likely to
be
released
into
the
atmosphere
.
and
feeding this
Information Into computers that ran
model
the atmosphere s
behaviour.
scientists can
make
rough
es
timates
of what Is liktly to
happtn . Current precllt'
llons
are
that the greenhous
8/10/2019 1988-89 cabinet paper 6363
19/55
C B N E ~ I N C O N F I D E N C E
ATTACH1 1ENT B
APPENDIX 1
Ozone: the umbrella against the ultraviolet
The ozone layer: less ozone means more ultraviolet
ultraviolet
absort ed
by ozone
..
.
. .
:/ t
-...
Ozone. a
gas composed
of
three
gen atoms. surrounds
the Earth
, a delicate veil. protecting
the
planet and Its Inhabitants from
the
dlrt>ct
gaze
of the
Sun.
Ozone Is our
umbrella against the ultraviolet.
Were It
not
present In the
atmosphere. ltthallevtls of
ultra\1okt radlallon
from thC
Sun
would
reach
the
Earth s
surface.
Ozone Is
found up
to hC'IJ hts of
about
60
km.
It
Is
most dense 20-25
km up but
evC n htre only om
moltcule In
I 00
000 is ozone. If all
~ o z o n e we're collected at thC
'l h s
surface.
It would form a layer
only about 3 mm
thick.
But because
there is so
little
ofit. and because
its
presence 1s so important.
small
changes m
ozone concentrations
Jd have
dramatic
effects on life
Earth
.
Ozone
IS produC"ed naturally. from
oxygen. high In the atmosphere.
Natural
forces
also break it down.
with the
result that
the gas
is
constantly being created and
destroyed.
The speeds at
which
these reactions oc cur determine
how much ozone there is in
the
atmosphere.
And
these speeds can
be
greatly
influenced by chemicals
in
the
atmosphere which act as
catalysts
in
the
reactiOns.
speeding
them
up 1.1.1thout themselves being
destroyed .
Several chemicals
used
in
or
produced
by industry greatly affect
the
speed at which
ozone
is broken
down.
These include the
chlorofluorocarbons
(CFCs)
which
arc
used as the propellants
tn
aerosols. m
refngeratlon terh
nolocy. as
< ; ' a m - b l o \ ~ 1 1 1 ~
a ~ e n t s
space
----.._ 6 km
~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - , - - - ,
atmosphere
ozone depleted
~
h1gher levels of ultraviolet
. -