Highly Restricted 0
1H 2019 Financial Results and Strategic UpdateLakshmi Mittal, Chairman and CEO
Aditya Mittal, President and CFO
August 1, 2019
0
Disclaimer
Forward-Looking Statements This document may contain forward-looking information and statements about ArcelorMittal and its subsidiaries. These statements include financial projections and estimates and their underlying assumptions, statements regarding plans, objectives and expectations with respect to future operations, products and services, and statements regarding future performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the words “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “target” or similar expressions. Although ArcelorMittal’s management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, investorsand holders of ArcelorMittal’s securities are cautioned that forward-looking information and statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties, many of which are difficult to predict and generally beyond the control of ArcelorMittal, that could cause actual results and developments to differ materially and adversely from those expressed in, or implied or projected by, the forward-looking information and statements. These risks and uncertainties include those discussed or identified in the filings with the Luxembourg Stock Market Authority for the Financial Markets (Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) made or to be made by ArcelorMittal, including ArcelorMittal’s latest Annual Report on Form 20-F on file with the SEC. ArcelorMittal undertakes no obligation to publicly update its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.
Non-GAAP/Alternative Performance MeasuresThis document includes supplemental financial measures that are or may be non-GAAP financial/alternative performance measures, as defined in the rules of the SEC or the guidelines of the European Securities and Market Authority (ESMA). They may exclude or include amounts that are included or excluded, as applicable, in the calculation of the most directly comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with IFRS. Accordingly, they should be considered in conjunction with ArcelorMittal's consolidated financial statements prepared in accordance with IFRS, including in its annual report on Form 20-F, its interim financial reports and earnings releases. Comparable IFRS measures and reconciliations of non-GAAP/alternative performance measures thereto are presented in such documents, in particular the earnings release to which this presentation relates.
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1
2
Focused on creating sustainable valueResponding to challenging market conditions
Challenging market conditions
Disciplined response
Balance sheet progress
Focussed on creating value
• Lacklustre demand reflecting lower PMI readings and weak automotive market
• Escalating imports in Europe; safeguard measures ineffective
• Higher raw material costs not yet reflected in finished steel prices
• Reduced capex spend by $0.5bn to $3.8bn
• Further cost savings initiatives undertaken across the business
• Temporary European flat steel capacity reduction of 4.2Mtpa annualised in 2H’19
• $0.9bn FCF positive in 1H’19 despite weak EBITDA
• Excluding IFRS 16* net debt down $1.5bn YoY to $9.0bn - lowest post merger
• To complement the expected deleveraging through FCF generation, the Company has identified opportunities to unlock up to $2bn of value from its asset portfolio
• Supply reform must continue to address global excess capacity
• Focus is on Action2020 delivery, ensuring healthy FCF and deleveraging progress
• Maintaining investment grade balance sheet is a priority, with intention to increase capital returns on achievement of net debt target
* Considering the IFRS 16 Leases impact of $1.2bn on January 1, 2019; YoY refers to June 30, 2019 vs. June 30, 2018
Deteriorating steel market conditions have weighed on the Company’s results for the first half 2019.Demand in our core markets of Europe and the US has generally been lacklustre, reflecting softness inmanufacturing activity and continued weakness in automotive. The European flat steel market has beenfurther negatively impacted by escalating imports - as the safeguard measures now in place have failed toprotect the domestic industry from continued global overcapacity – whilst in the US, additional domesticsupply and destocking has driven flat steel prices lower. Given higher raw material costs, steel spreads inboth markets are at unsustainably low levels.
The significant price-cost squeeze observed in the first half 2019 has driven a marked deterioration in theoperating results in our steel business. The improved contribution from our Mining segment once againhighlights the benefits of ArcelorMittal’s vertical integration strategy, and the more resilient results in ourCIS and Brazil segments the benefits that regional diversification can provide.
As previously announced, ArcelorMittal is responding to the weak market backdrop by temporarily curtailingflat steel production rate in Europe by annualised 4.2Mt in 2H’19. This action will be further supported byinitiatives taken to reduce costs whilst the challenging operating environment persist.
At the same time, the company is reducing the cash needs of the business by $1bn for 2019 in order tosupport free cash flow. This complements the efforts to optimise working capital, and saw a healthy $0.9bnFCF generated in the first half of 2019. Together with the proceeds from asset sales we have seen goodprogress on net debt reduction.
On a comparable basis, excluding the impacts of IFRS 16 accounting, net debt at the end of June 30, 2019was $1.5bn lower vs. the same period in 2018, the lowest level post the ArcelorMittal merger.
Deleveraging remains the Company’s priority and the anticipated progress to be achieved through FCFgeneration will be complemented by up to $2bn of proceeds from further optimisation of the asset portfolioover the next 2 years.
Looking forward, whilst there are some constructive signs, particularly the recent prices increases in theUS, the steel industry in Europe remains in a fragile state. As such, we remain focussed on deliveringagainst our Action 2020 targets and integrating recently acquired assets to realise their full potential. Iexpect the business to generate healthy free cash flow this year and demonstrate progress in our efforts tofurther strengthen our balance sheet and improve shareholder returns.
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Safety is our priority LTIF* rate
* LTIF = Lost time injury frequency defined as Lost Time Injuries per 1.000.000 worked hours; based on own personnel and contractors; A Lost Time Injury (LTI) is an incident that causes an injury that prevents the person from returning to his next scheduled shift or work period. ** ArcelorMittal Italia previously known as ILVA. LTIF excluding ArcelorMittal Italia of 0.68x in 2Q’19 vs. 0.66x in 1Q’19 and 0.71x in 2Q’18. From 1Q’19 onwards, the methodology and metrics used to calculate health and safety figures for ArcelorMittal Italia have been harmonized with those of ArcelorMittal.
0.85 0.85 0.81 0.82 0.78 0.69
20112007 201420122008 1H1920182009 2010 2013 2015 2016
2.5
2017
1.8
3.1
1.9
1.4
1.0
3
Health & Safety performance
• 2Q19 LTIF rate of 1.26x (including ArcelorMittal Italia)**
• The Company’s efforts to improve the Group’s Health and Safety record will continue
• The Company is focused on further reducing the rate of severe injuries and fatality prevention
ArcelorMittalIncl. ArcelorMittal Italia
ArcelorMittalExcl. ArcelorMittal
Italia
0.66
1.19 1.19
Looking at our safety performance.
In 2Q’19, the Lost time injury frequency rate (LTIFR) including the recent acquisition ofArcelorMittal Italia was 1.26x incidents per million hours worked as compared to 1.14xin 1Q’19. Excluding this acquisition, the LTIF rate for the Group was 0.68x as comparedwith 0.66x in 1Q’19 and 0.71x in 2Q’18.
The Company’s efforts to improve its Health and Safety record remains focused on bothfurther reducing the rate of severe injuries and preventing fatalities.
We remain committed to the journey towards zero harm and ensure that all levels of theorganization are focused on this primary objective.
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Sustainable Development – key to our resilienceDriven by our vision to make steel the material of choice for the low carbon and circular economy
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• Published first Climate Action Report May 2019
Stated ambition to significantly reduce our carbon footprint by 2050
ArcelorMittal’s European business targets carbon neutral by 2050
Focus on continual energy efficiency improvements; technology innovation
and policy engagement to create conditions enabling the Company to meet
Paris agreement objectives
Targetting low-emission steelmaking with circular carbon, carbon capture
and utilisation, hydrogen and electrolysis technologies
• Completed independent pre-audit against ResponsibleSteel, a multi-
stakeholder standard due to be launched end 2019 that will provide customers
new levels of complete mine-to-metal reassurance
Moving to the topic of sustainable development. Our vision is to make our steel thematerial of choice for the low carbon, circular economy.
On May 29, 2019, ArcelorMittal published its first Climate Action Report in which weannounced our ambition to significantly reduce CO2 emissions globally and be carbonneutral in Europe by 2050. To achieve this goal, the Company is building a strategicroadmap linked to the evolution of public policy and developments in low-emissionssteelmaking technologies. A medium term target to 2030 will be announced in 2020,replacing the Company’s current target of an 8% carbon footprint reduction by 2020,against a 2007 baseline. The report explains in greater detail the future challenges andopportunities for the steel industry, the plausible technology pathways the Company isexploring as well as its views on the policy environment required for the steel industry tosucceed in meeting the targets of the Paris Agreement. We specifically highlight ourbreakthrough technology strategy to ensure that we can pursue any of the potentialpathways to low carbon steelmaking. While we are making progress on the technologysolutions it is important to recognise that we cannot achieve the true potential of lowcarbon steel making on our own. So we have also been assessing the policies we needto support us to significantly reduce our carbon footprint, and engaging with others toexplore these further.
During the quarter, ArcelorMittal hosted a consultation on the draft ResponsibleSteel™standard - the steel industry’s first, multi-stakeholder standard for the entire ‘mine-to-metal’ steel value chain. The standard is due to launch to the market at the end of 2019.
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Challenging price environment in 1H 2019Prices in core markets dislocated from global trends
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US and European HRC prices dislocated from China and the raw material basket• Challenging steel backdrop in 1H’19
– Lower average selling prices, in core markets
– Higher raw material basket prices
Negative price cost effect
• Mixed pricing
– China operating with higher levels of capacity utilisation positive earnings required to deleverage and invest in environmental improvement. Steel prices have increased YTD
– US prices have deteriorated through 1H’19 following period of destocking and increased domestic supply
– Europe-China price differential remains unusually low despite the safeguard measures now in place
As already highlighted, our results reflect the difficult market conditionsexperienced in our core markets during the first half of 2019.
As the chart shows, we have seen sharp declines in steel prices in Europe andthe US. This contrasts with the more stable price environment in China and therising raw material basket.
We continue to believe in the structural improvements in the steel industry overthe past 3 years, and this is demonstrated by the relative resilience of steelprices in China reflecting higher capacity utilisation rates.
In Europe, however, demand has declined due to macro headwinds, includingthe declines in auto production. Despite this, more supply is available in themarket through escalating imports due to ineffective safeguard measures.
In the US, the demand environment has also weakened, but the impact onprices has been exacerbated by additional domestic supply and customerdestocking.
In addition, the industry has been facing rising raw material prices, particularlyiron ore, due to supply-side developments in Brazil. As a result, profitabilitycompressed due to this negative price cost effect.
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Steel spreads in core markets unusually lowPrice declines coupled with high raw material prices have compressed steel spreads
6
USA HRC price ExW Indiana $/t vs IPP ($/t)
• US HRC prices have fallen to levels well below import parity (IPP)
$0.6bn impairments of ArcelorMittal USA did not factor in recent price increases
• European HRC steel spreads at historical low levels
Announced 4.2Mt annualised production curtailments for 2H’19 to bring supply inline with addressable demand and remove negative contribution tonnes
* July reference period as of Jul 15, 2019
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100USA HRC price ExW Indiana
Import parity price
Northern European spreads ($/t)
The unsustainability of current prices in our core markets is illustrated on thisslide.
Beginning with the US, the chart shows that current pricing has dislocated withinternational markets. Given the US continues to require imported steel to satisfydemand we believe that Import Parity Pricing (IPP) remains the ultimate pricesetter. Of course there are always over and under shoots relative to IPP whichare largely driven by restocking and destocking cycles. What we observe todayis an unusually wide discount to IPP reflecting the additional domestic supplyand prolonged destock. The impact that this has already had on our AM USAbusiness has prompted a $0.6bn non-cash impairment. Looking forward, thesituation is not expected to sustain and we are encouraged by the recent priceincreases which were not factored into the near term forecasts of the impairmentmodels.
Turning to Europe, the combination of declining prices and the impact of iron oresupply shocks on the raw materials basket has seen steel spreads compress tohistorically low levels as can be seen on the chart.
ArcelorMittal has responded by taking steps to reduce costs whilst maintainingour focus on quality and service. We’ve also taken the difficult decision to reduceHRC output in the 2H’19 by annualized 4.2Mt, equivalent to >10% of ourcapacity. This will strengthen the Group’s cost position in the 2H’19 and alsoimprove the supply/demand balance.
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4.35.6
3.2
1H’17 1H’191H’18
-42.6%
Operating results weaken during 1H’19Weaker operating results but improved free cashflow
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• EBITDA 42.6% lower YoY to $3.2bn
• Steel results performance impacted by negative price-cost
• Strong Mining performance due to higher seaborne iron ore prices (+30.6% YoY)
• Net loss of $33 million in 1H’19 impacted by $1.1bn of impairments*
• Positive FCF of $0.9bn in 1H’19
• Net debt down to $10.2bn. Excluding IFRS 16** net debt was $9.0bn, $1.5bn lower YoY and the lowest level achieved since the merger
* Impairment charges for 1H 2019 were $1.1 billion related to the remedy asset sales for the ArcelorMittal Italia acquisition ($0.5bn) and impairment of the fixed assets of ArcelorMittal USA ($0.6bn) following a sharp decline in steel prices and substantially higher raw material costs. ** Considering the IFRS 16 Leases impact of $1.2bn on January 1, 2019Note: YoY refers to 1H’19 vs. 1H’18
EBITDA ($bn)
24
941
1H’18 1H’19
Free cashflow ($mn)
Working capital investment of
$0.2bn in 1H’19
Turning now to the financial performance of the first half 2019.
ArcelorMittal reported EBITDA of $3.2bn for 1H’19 as compared to $5.6bn in 1H’18reflecting the challenging operating environment the industry has faced in recentmonths, characterized by rising raw material costs (reflecting supply-side developmentsin Brazil) and weaker pricing levels in most markets.
Our 1H’19 performance was impacted by a significant negative price-cost effect in oursteel business, a scope-adjusted decline in volumes and a negative impact from ILVAlosses, offset by improved mining performance benefiting from a 30.6% increase inseaborne iron ore reference prices YoY.
We reported a net loss of $33 million. This includes impairment charges of $1.1bnrelated to the remedy asset sales for the ArcelorMittal Italia acquisition ($0.5bn) andimpairment of the fixed assets of ArcelorMittal USA ($0.6bn) following a sharp decline insteel prices and high raw material costs.
In terms of cashflow performance, despite the increase in steel shipments and higherraw material costs in particularly iron ore, the Company invested only $0.2bn in workingcapital in 1H’19. The investment level is less pronounced than in prior years given ourfocus on eliminating the excess working capital accumulated in 4Q’18.
As a result, free cashflow for the first half of 2019 was $0.9bn. Net debt declined to$10.2bn as of June 30, 2019. Excluding the impact of IFRS 16 net debt was $9.0bndown $1.5bn YoY and the lowest level since the ArcelorMittal merger.
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• Steel-only EBITDA down (-55.0%) YoY primarily due to negative price-cost effect (PCE)
• 1H’19 steel-only EBITDA/t decreased to $50/t from $114/t at 1H’18
1H’18 vs 1H’19 highlights
• Europe: EBITDA down -62.1% Negative PCE and forex and scope effect of loss-making ArcelorMittal Italia
• ACIS: EBITDA down -54.7% Negative PCE effect and lower steel shipments
• NAFTA: EBITDA down -55.5% Negative PCE effect and lower steel shipments
• Brazil: EBITDA down -23.4% Negative PCE effect and forex offset in part by higher steel shipments
4.9
2.2
1H’191H’18
-55%
$50/t
$114/t
Steel results reflect lower spreads Weaker steel performance due to negative price-cost effect
8
Steel only EBITDA ($bn) and EBITDA/t ($/t)
1H’18 to 1H’19 steel only EBITDA ($bn)
* YoY refers to 1H’19 vs. 1H’18
1H’18
-0.2
-1.4
Europe ACIS NAFTA Brazil
-0.4
Others 1H’19
-0.7
4.9
0
2.2
8
Overall, our steel-only EBITDA declined by -55% to $2.2bn for 1H’19 as compared to$4.9bn in 1H’18 primarily driven by a negative price-cost effect.This reduction has been primarily driven by lower results in our core markets of Europe(including the negative impact of ArcelorMittal Italia and the remedy assets) andNAFTA. Performance of our ACIS and Brazil segments also deteriorated YoY, but sawmore resilient trends when comparing the 2Q’19 with 1Q’19.
On a per tonne basis, steel-only EBITDA/t for 1H’19 of $50/t compares unfavorably with1H’18 level of $114/t.
On a per tonne basis, the sharpest decline was in Europe, driven largely by a negativeprice-cost effect and forex. While Europe shipments increased +10.1%, this was due tothe inclusion of ArcelorMittal Italia which remains loss making mainly due to weakmarket conditions.
Were we to exclude the loss-making tonnes of ArcelorMittal Italia and the remedyassets (4.6Mt in total), then Europe segment’s EBITDA per tonne would have beencloser to $64/t (vs. the $35/t reported) in 1H’19 and Group Steel-only EBITDA per tonnewould have been $65/t (vs. the $50/t reported).
ArcelorMittal Italia results challengingArcelorMittal Italia operating losses acting as a drag on European segment performance
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Taranto raw material yard
Navigating a challenging market backdrop
• ArcelorMittal Italia results negatively impacted by weak
European market backdrop and ongoing import pressures
• Ramp-up to 6Mt run-rate (previously expected by 2H’19) has been slowed down due to weak markets
• Following extreme weather driven force majeure, raw material port operations remain impacted
• All three BF#s currently running albeit at a reduced operating rates
ArcelorMittal Italia action plan for further optimisation and return to profitability
• Accelerated action plan to significantly improve results by year end:
Assuming existing market conditions and no ongoing license to operate issues, an accelerated
action plan has been implemented to significantly reduce losses by 4Q’19.
The plan is essentially a combination of fixed and variable cost optimization, with 56 individual
projects that will be led by 6 teams that draw on specific expertise from the ArcelorMittal flat
Europe organization.
ArcelorMittal Italia is operating in a challenging environment and results for this business reflect the weakmarket backdrop and the pressure from imports faced most acutely in southern Europe.
The business is not achieving the level of results that we had planned at the time of the acquisition due tothe weak spread environment and the deliberate slow down of the production ramp-up. The management isfocused on safety, quality and service improvements rather than additional volumes until market conditionsimprove.
Following the extreme weather conditions that impacted the site earlier this month, we can report thatcurrently all three BFs are running – albeit at reduced operating rates – and the port facilities remainimpacted leading to some raw material supply interruptions.
Assuming existing market conditions and no ongoing license to operate issues, an accelerated action planhas been implemented to significantly reduce losses by 4Q’19.
The plan is essentially a combination of fixed and variable cost optimization, with 56 individual projects thatwill be led by 6 teams that draw on specific expertise from the ArcelorMittal flat Europe organization.
Moving to our license to operate. The Italian Parliament recently ratified a law decree enacted by theGovernment, which has removed the protection for criminal liability related to public health and safety, andworkplace security matters and, as from September 7, 2019, will also remove such protection as it relatesto environmental matters which is required for the ex-Ilva facilities to continue to operate during theimplementation of the environmental plan and was a part of our agreement to acquire theplant. Furthermore, on July 9, 2019 the public prosecutor of Taranto ordered a production halt atArcelorMittal Italia’s blast furnace No. 2 of the Taranto plant due to a historic issue related to safety.
ArcelorMittal Italia is currently assessing technical aspects.
In both instances we are working with the government to find suitable solutions. Whilst both of these issuesrepresent unexpected additional challenges to those posed by the weak operating environment, wecontinue to have confidence in our long term vision for the turnaround and potential of ArcelorMittal Italia.
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• Essar provides ArcelorMittal an opportunity to buy a producing, profitable, cash generating asset at below replacement costs
• Legal process nearing completion with transaction closing expected in 3Q’19
• ArcelorMittal aims to increase shipments to 8.5Mt in medium term, with long term target of 12-15Mt through additional brownfield capacity expansion
• Iron ore pelletising integration in East India provides optionality: 14Mtpa pellet capacity → currently being expanded to 20Mtpa
Performance has improved since bankruptcy process initiated:
• ESIL achieved record quarterly results ending June’19
1.9Mt crude steel production (+9.5% YoY)
EBITDA of $0.2bn
Existing gas based production more viable given the gas complex has moved lower
Essar performance improvingEssar brings scale, turnaround opportunity and growth optionality
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Moving to an update on the Essar acquisition.
We are making progress. On July 4, 2019, the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (“NCLAT”) of India approved our resolution plan for the acquisition of Essar Steel India Limited. Several further appeals have been filed before India’s Supreme Court challenging the NCLAT’s order and are pending a hearing on August 7, 2019. The transaction closing is now expected during 3Q’19.
Pleasingly, Essar is performing well and posted record results for the June quarter with annualised crude steel production of 7.6Mt and EBITDA of $0.2bn.
At the same time we have seen domestic natural gas prices have declined to reach 3 year lows. This makes the gas based steel production capacity at Essar - which we had expected to require partial replacement -profitable and, if sustained, more viable long term.
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• 1H’19 EBITDA improved +51.3% primarily due to higher seaborne iron ore prices (+30.6%)
• FY’19 market priced iron ore shipments expected to be stable YoY
Liberia: ArcelorMittal Liberia is conducting detailed engineering following the feasibility study to identify the optimal concentration solution for utilising the resources at Tokadeh (and other deposits)
The investment case will be assessed in 2H’19
• Focus on quality: ongoing commitment on quality, service and delivery
• Cost focus maintained: FCF breakeven remains at $40/t iron ore price (62% CFR China)
654
990
1H’18 1H’19
+51.3%
Significantly improved Mining performanceBenefitting from higher iron ore prices
Iron ore price ($/t)*
Mining EBITDA ($mn)
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7092
1H’191H’18
+30.6%
* Index of spot market Iron Ore prices delivered to China, normalized to Qingdao and 62% Fe US $ per tonne daily; YoY refers to 1H’19 vs. 1H’18
Moving on from Steel to our Mining segment.
Results in our Mining business benefitted from the significantly higher iron oreprice environment following the supply disruptions in Brazil earlier in the year.
EBITDA increased to $990m from $654m in 1H’18.
For 2019 we expect market priced iron ore shipments to remain stable ascompared to 2018.
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Cash needs reducedCapex moderated (without impacting key projects) and lower taxes
4.3 3.8
1.5
1.00.65
2019 revised guidance
2019F
0.65
6.4
5.4
-1.0
* Cash needs of the business consisting of capex, cash paid for interest and other cash payments primarily for taxes and excluding for these purposes working capital investment** Estimates for cash taxes in 2019 have been updated to reflect latest consensus forecast as of August 2019 (previous estimate based on 2018 taxable profit)
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• Cash needs in 2019 have been reduced by $1.0bn to $5.4bn (from $6.4bn previous guidance)
Due to weak market backdrop capex spend has been reduced by $0.5bn without impacting the timelines of key strategic projects
Cash taxes and others reduced by $0.5bn to $1.0bn primarily due to lower expected cash taxes and others
• Unplanned working capital investment in 2018 is expected to be released in 2019
• Given YTD working capital investment of $0.2bn this implies a release of $1.2bn in 2H’19
Taxes**, pension and
other
Net interest
Capex
Below-EBITDA cash needs ($ billions)
In response to the weaker operating environment and pressures on EBITDA, the Company has taken steps to reduce the cash needs of the business and support free cashflow.
The Company expects cash needs (including capex, interest, cash taxes, pensions and certain other cash costs but excluding working capital movements) to be approximately $5.4bn in 2019 versus $6.4bn previous guidance.
Whilst no significant delays to growth investments are expected, the Company has reduced capex across all segments by $0.5bn and now expects FY 2019 capex to be $3.8bn from previous guidance of $4.3bn.
Interest expense in 2019 is expected to be $0.65bn while cash taxes, pensions and other cash costs are now expected to be $1.0bn, this is $0.5bn below the guidance given at the start of the year primarily due to lower expected cash taxes and others.
We have made some progress during 1H’19 in optimising working capital following the $1bn excess investment in 2018. The Company limited investment to $0.2bn despite seasonally higher volumes and headwinds from higher iron ore prices.
We will continue to focus on structurally releasing the excess material in the system and this should provide good support to free cash flow in the 2H’19.
12
Balance sheet progressNet debt lower despite strategic growth investments
13
15.7
11.110.1 10.2 1.2
Dec 31, 2015
10.2
June 30 2019*
Dec 31, 2018
Dec 31, 2016
Mar 31, 2019*
Dec 31, 2017
11.2
IFRS 16 impact
Net debt excluding IFRS 16 impact
Net debt $bn• Current net debt (excluding IFRS 16 accounting impact) is the lowest since ArcelorMittal merger
• Progress achieved despite strategic growth investments (M&A and growth capex)
• Our strong financial position provides for strategic continuity whilst navigating market challenges
• Targeting further ~$3.2bn net debt reduction to achieve targets
• FCF-driven deleveraging to be complemented by further asset portfolio optimisation identified potential to unlock up to $2bn of value by June 2021
* The $1.2bn represents the recognition on January 1, 2019 of new leases under IFRS 16.
Moving to the balance sheet, it is clear that the progress we’ve made in recent years to reduce leverage and interest costs places the Company in a strong position to generate cash. Indeed, despite the market challenges in 1H’19 the Company generated $0.9bn in free cash flow.
Complemented by the proceeds received from the sale of remedy asset package assets to Liberty, net debt excluding IFRS 16 declined by $1.5bn over the past 12 months to the lowest level since the ArcelorMittal merger.
This progress has been achieved during a period of strategic growth for the business, both through M&A and high-return value-added capex.
Deleveraging remains a priority, to be supported by working capital release likely concentrated in the fourth quarter.
To complement the expected deleveraging through FCF generation, the Company has identified opportunities to unlock up to $2bn of value from its asset portfolio.
13
13
1H 2019 EBITDA to net resultsNet loss impacted by $1.1 billion impairment in 1H 2019
3,207
611194
302
Net loss
(315)
D&AEBITDA
(1,499)
Income from investments
Operating income
(1,097)
Impairment charges
Net interest expense
(404)
Forex and other fin. result
Pre-tax income
(227)
Taxes and non-
controlling interests
(33)
BASIC EPS 1H’19
Weighted Av. No. of shares (in millions) 1,013
Loss per share $(0.03)Related to the remedy asset
sales for the ArcelorMittal Italia acquisition ($0.5bn) and
impairment of the fixed assets of ArcelorMittal USA ($0.6bn) following a sharp decline in
steel prices high raw material costs.
Includes Erdemirdividend declared
$93m and contribution from Chinese investees
and Calvert
14
($million)
Moving to the financials results, in this slide we highlight the key elements of our waterfall from EBITDA to net income for 1H’19.
In 1H’19, we reported $3.2bn EBITDA and depreciation of $1.5bn which includes impact from IFRS 16.
We booked impairment charges for 1H’19 of $1.1bn related to the remedy asset sales for the ArcelorMittal Italia acquisition ($0.5bn) and impairment of the fixed assets of ArcelorMittal USA ($0.6bn) following a sharp decline in steel prices and high raw material costs.
Income from associates, joint ventures and other investments for 1H’19 was $302m. This figure mainly reflects the performance of the Chinese and Calvert investees and includes the annual dividend from Erdemir ($93m).
Net interest expense of $315m in 1H’19 includes the impact from IFRS 16.
Foreign exchange and other net financing result for 1H’19 includes a foreign exchange loss of $14m as compared to $237m in 1H’18.
Net loss for the 1H’19 was $33m (impacted by impairments as described above).
14
2Q 2019 EBITDA to net resultsNet loss in 2Q 2019 impacted by impairments
1,555
(158)(391) (447)
(154)
(173)
Impairment charges
(947)
EBITDA
(766)
D&A Operating loss
Income from investments
Forex and other fin. result
Net interest expense
Pre-tax income
(56)Taxes and
non-controlling interests
Net loss
94
BASIC EPS 2Q’19
Weighted Av. No. of shares (in millions) 1,014
Loss per share $(0.44)Related to the remedy asset sales for the ArcelorMittal Italia acquisition ($347m)
and impairment of the fixed assets of ArcelorMittal USA ($600m) following a sharp decline in steel prices and high raw material costs.
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($million)
Includes contribution from Chinese investees
and Calvert
In this slide, we highlight the key elements of our waterfall from EBITDA to net income for 2Q’19.
In 2Q’19, we reported $1.6bn EBITDA and depreciation of $766m.
We booked impairment charges for 2Q’19 of $947m related to the remedy asset sales for the ArcelorMittal Italia acquisition ($347m) and impairment of the fixed assets of ArcelorMittal USA ($600m) following a sharp decline in steel prices and high raw material costs.
Income from associates, joint ventures and other investments for 2Q’19 was $94m reflecting largely the performance of the Chinese and Calvert investees.
Net interest expense of $154m in 2Q’19.
Net loss for the quarter was $447m.
15
1H 2019 EBITDA to free cashflowFCF positive despite weaker earnings
3,2072,757
941
(1,816)
EBITDA Free cash flow
(200)
Cash flow from operations
(250)
* Change in working capital: cash movement in trade accounts receivable plus inventories less trade and other accounts payable
Change in working capital*
Net financial cost, tax and
others
Capex
16
($million)
In this slide, we highlight the waterfall from EBITDA to free cash flow for the 1H 2019.
During 1H’19, the Company invested $0.2bn in operating working capital. The third bar shows the combined impact of net financial cost, tax and other items totalling $0.3bn.
Cash flow from operations remains positive at $2.8bn and capex of $1.8bn resulted in a positive free cash flow for 1H’19 of $941m.
16
2Q 2019 EBITDA to free cashflowHealthy FCF generation
1,5551,786
917
353
EBITDA
(869)
Free cash flow
(122)
Cash flow from operations
* Change in working capital: cash movement in trade accounts receivable plus inventories less trade and other accounts payable
Change in working capital*
Net financial cost, tax and
others
Capex
17
($million)
In this slide, we focus on 2Q’19 EBITDA to free cash flow waterfall.
During 2Q’19, the Company released $0.4bn in operating working capital.
The third bar shows the combined impact of net financial cost, tax and other items totalling $0.1bn.
Cash flow from operations remains positive at $1.8bn and capex of $0.9bn resulted in a positive free cash flow for the quarter of $0.9bn.
17
1H 2019 Net debt analysisNet debt declined June 30, 2019 v December 31, 2018 excluding IFRS 16 impact
1,172
941
620
250
90
10,196
Net debt at Dec 31, 2018
IFRS 16 impact*
Free cash flow
M&A Dividends Share buy back
27
Forex and other
10,174
Net debt at Jun 30, 2019
18
($million)
Dividends paid to ArcelorMittal shareholders and by ArcelorMittal Mines Canada to POSCO
Includes proceeds from remedy asset
sales and rollover of Indian rupee hedge
* IFRS 16 impacts excluding the leases scope out for ArcelorMittal Italia remedies
Reported net debt has remained stable during the 1H 2019, but underlying progress is masked by the adoption of IFRS 16 (accounting for operating leases) which added $1.2bn to reported debt.
Including the healthy levels of FCF, the received proceeds from assets sales to Liberty of $0.5bn and the benefits of the rollover of the Indian rupee hedge, on an underlying basis net debt excluding IFRS 16 declined by $1.2bn in 1H’19.
18
2Q 2019 Net debt analysisNet debt declined June 30, 2019 v March 31, 2019
917
375204
Free cash flow
11,159
Net debt at Mar 31, 2019
M&A Dividends Forex and other Net debt at Jun 30, 2019
10,174
103
19
($million)
Dividends paid mainly to
ArcelorMittal shareholders
Includes proceeds from remedy asset sales and rollover of Indian rupee
hedge
Net debt declined by $1.0bn during the quarter to $10.2bn driven by positive free cashflow and M&A proceeds from the sale of ArcelorMittal Italia remedy assets ($0.5bn); offset in part by dividends paid to ArcelorMittal shareholders and forex of $0.1bn.
19
Liquidity lines
• $5.5bn lines of credit refinanced with 5 year maturity Dec 19, 2023
Debt Maturity:
• Continued strong liquidity
• Average debt maturity → 4.7 years
Ratings:
• S&P: BBB-, stable outlook
• Moody’s: Baa3, stable outlook
• Fitch: BBB-, stable outlook
5.5
3.7
Liquidity at Jun 30, 2019
Cash
Unused credit lines
9.2
1.31.8
1.3 1.5
0.6
3.30.6
1.0
0.7 0.5
0.4
0.6
≥202420222019
0.2
2020 2021 2023
Other loans
Bonds
Commercial paper
Liquidity and debt maturityInvestment grade rated by all three rating agencies
Liquidity* at Jun 30, 2019 ($bn) Debt maturities at Jun 30, 2019 ($bn)
20* Liquidity is defined as cash and cash equivalents plus available credit lines excluding back-up lines for the commercial paper program.
ArcelorMittal continues to maintain very strong liquidity.
At June 30, 2019, the Company had liquidity of $9.2bn, consisting of cash and cash equivalents of $3.7bn and $5.5bn of committed unused lines of credit. Lines of credit are with a group of core relationship banks and are committed for 5 years.
Subsequent to end of the quarter, we further continued to strengthen our funding profile with the issuance of new USD long term debt (5 and 10 years) followed by a repurchase of all of our USD bonds due in 2020 (totalling approx $1 billion). We have now pre-funded the equity consideration for Essar and have taken care of 2020 bond maturities while taking advantage of attractive market conditions.
We will continue to maintain a healthy liquidity position as well as a capital allocation policy that supports a strong balance sheet consistent with an investment grade credit profile.
20
Positioned to deliver valueGlobal diversified industry leader focussed on maximising per-share value
21
• Unique global portfolio
• Industry leader in product and process innovation
• Action2020 plan to structurally improve profitability
• Investing with focus and discipline in high return opportunities
• Investment grade balance sheet
• Progressively returning cash
Secure position in mature developed markets
(with growth exposure e.g. Mexico) with
emphasis on HAV leadership
High-growth, with attractive
market structure and gradual
evolution towards HAV
Access to
growth
markets
ArcelorMittal
Investment Grade Balance SheetE
UR
OP
E
BR
AZ
IL
AC
IS
IND
IA
Mining
(capturing the full value-in-use chain)
NA
FTA
To conclude.
ArcelorMittal has a unique global portfolio of steel and mining assets. The benefits of this diversification were apparent in the 1H’19 – the deterioration in performance in the developed market steel business contrasted with relatively more stable performance in the Brazil and CIS operations and the significantly stronger performance in the Company’s mining activities.
We remain focussed on achieving our Action2020 improvement plans that target structural improvements in our EBITDA and cash generation. The improved robustness of the business was demonstrated in the first 6 months of 2019 where, despite challenging market conditions, the Company achieved $0.9bn of FCF.
Net debt over the past 12 months has declined by $1.5bn to a historic post-merger low ($9bn excluding IFRS 16 impacts). This has been achieved whilst investing for growth, both through M&A and organic investment in high-return strategic capex projects.
Deleveraging remains the Group’s priority, and the anticipated progress to be achieved through FCF generation will be complemented by up to $2bn of proceeds from the further optimisation of the asset portfolio by June 2021.
The Company offers a unique exposure to both high-added-value product leadership position in the developed markets as well as higher-growth emerging markets, supported by the strong foundations of vertical integration and an investment grade balance sheet. The Company is making clear progress towards achieving its net debt objectives, at which point cash returns to shareholders will increase.
21
Capital allocation
22
Whilst investing in high-return opportunities with focus and strict
discipline
Targeting $7bn net debt*– a level of debt that should support positive FCF** and IG
credit metrics at all points of the cycle
Capital allocation to support strategic goalsBuilding strong foundations for future returns
23
Building the strongest platform for consistent capital returns to shareholders
Robust balance sheet
Invest in strengths
Returns to shareholders
Progressively increase base dividend with a commitment to returning a percentage
of FCF on attainment of debt target
Resilient platform
To grow FCF potential
Consistently return cash
* Previous target of $6bn adjusted to reflect impact of IFRS 16 ** Free cash flow refers to cash flow from operations less capex
23
US$1.0bn 3Yr investment commitment Construction of a new 2.5Mt hot strip mill
Mexico: HSM project High return mix improvement with future optionality
Project summary:• HSM project to optimize capacity and improve mix
$1bn project initiated in 4Q’17; expected completion in 2020
New 2.5Mt hot strip mill to increase share of domestic market (domestic HRC spreads are significantly higher vs. slab exports)
Includes investments to sustain the competitiveness of mining operations and modernizing its existing asset base
• ArcelorMittal Mexico highly competitive low cost domestic slab
• Growth market, with high import share
Mexico is a net importer of steel (50% flat rolled products import share)
ASC estimated to grow 2.0% CAGR 2015-25; growth in non-auto +2.2%, supported by industrial production and public infrastructure investment
• Potential to add $250 million in EBITDA on completion
Project status:
• Deep foundation essentially complete
• Building erection ongoing
• Working with EPC consortium on productivity improvements
John Deere India
24
5
0
20
10
15
(Mt)
52%
2015
50%
2016
54%
2017
50%
2018
15.7 16.2 17.2 16.6
Share captured by Imports
ASC (Million tonnes; flat products)
Reheat furnace
24
Brazil: Vega high added value capacity expansionHigh return mix improvement in one of the most promising developing markets
Project summary:
• HAV expansion project to improve mix
Completion expected 2021 with total capex spend of ~$0.3bn
Increase Galv/CRC capacity through construction of 700kt continuous annealing and continuous galvanising combiline
Optimization of current facilities to maximize site capacity and competitiveness; utilizing comprehensive digital/automation technology
To enhance 3rd generation AHSS capabilities and support our growth in automotive market and value added products to construction
• ArcelorMittal Vega highly competitive on quality and cost, with strategic location and synergies with ArcelorMittal Tubarão
• Investment to sustain ArcelorMittal Brazil growth strategy in cold rolled and coated flat products to serve domestic and broader Latin American markets
• Strengthening ArcelorMittal’s position in key markets such as automotive and construction through value added products
• Potential to add >$100mn to EBITDA
John Deere India
3Yr investment to expand rolling capacity → increase Coated / CRC capacity and
construction of a new 700kt continuous annealing line (CAL) and continuous
galvanising combiline (CGL)
25
25
Votorantim consolidates our position in Brazil longsMulti-year acquisition project concluded in April 2018
26
• Culmination of a multi-year process that began 2014
• Consolidating the Brazil long products market
• ArcelorMittal now the #1 long products producer with
annual crude steel capacity of 5.1Mt
• Acquired production facilities are geographically
complementary, enabling higher service level to
customers, economies of scale, higher utilization and
efficiencies
• ~$110m of identified synergies on track to be fully
captured in 2019
• Synergies coming from headcount reduction,
operational KPIs improvements and procurement
renegotiation
Current status:
• Keep competitive by reducing fixed costs
• Focus on working capital management and improving free cashflow
Resende Barra Mansa
Barra Mansa plant
Monlevade
Resende plant
Juiz de Fora
PiracicabaSao Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Minas Gerais
Creating the new market leader in Brazil longs
26
ArcelorMittal Italia turnaround to restore tier-1 statusMulti-year acquisition project concluded in Nov’18
• Improvement plan:o Ramp-up to 6Mt run-rate (previously expected by 2H’19)
has been slowed down due to weak market conditions
o Focus on improved quality and service
o Capture identified synergies (€310m) and realise asset’s potential
Focus on:• Health & safety: o Developing H&S mindset across the plant
o LTIF rate still considerably behind group average, so improvement still necessary
• Investment program underway: o All environmental interventions are progressing in line with
the accelerated timetable
o Regular checks with authorities are positive
o Presentation of the Environmental plan to the European Commission ENV DG with positive outcome
1.15
2.402.10
1.25
Total capexIndustrialEnviromental Net capex
0.30
Riva funds utilised
27
Industrial capex includes annual
maintenance
Progress at the raw material stock yard
Environmental capex includes: €0.3bn stock pile coverage; €0.2bn at coke ovens; €0.2bn waste water treatment; €0.3bn environmental remediation*
*€0.3bn environmental remediation (clean-up) will be financed with funds seized from the Riva Group
ArcelorMittal Italia capex commitment to 2024 (€ bn)
27
Appendix
• SECTION 1 | Climate action 29
• SECTION 2 | Trade 35
• SECTION 3 | Steel inventories 39
• SECTION 4 | Macro highlights 44
• SECTION 5 | Industry leadership 49
28
Climate action
29
29
Our ambition ArcelorMittal is committed to the objectives of the Paris Agreement
30
• ArcelorMittal’s stated ambition is to significantly
reduce our carbon footprint by 2050
• ArcelorMittal’s European business targets
carbon neutral by 2050
• We are undertaking extensive research and
pilot programs within our operations, as well as
evaluating the opportunity from off-setting
• We are developing our strategic roadmap and
will provide an interim 2030 target in 2020
30
Our low-emission innovation programLow-emissions steelmaking will be achieved through three technology pathways
31
• Clean power to fuel hydrogen-based ironmaking,
direct electrolysis ironmaking, and to contribute to
other low-emissions technologies.
• Circular carbon energy sources including bio-based/
plastic wastes from municipal and industrial sources
and agricultural and forestry residues.
• Fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage
(CCS) to transform existing iron and steelmaking
processes into low-emissions pathways.
No ‘one size fits all’ solution Pursue full range of possible technology pathways, depending on which becomes viable in the countries/ regions we operate.
31
Carbalyst®Capturing carbon gas and recycling into chemicals
32
• Working with LanzaTech in Ghent, Belgium, to build
first industrial-scale demonstration plant to capture
carbon off-gases from the blast furnace and convert
into a range of Carbalyst® recycled carbon products
• €120mn investment started in 2018 and once
completed in 2020 will capture ~15% of available waste
gases and convert into 80mn litres of ethanol annually
• LCA studies predict a CO2 reduction of up to 87%
from Carbalyst® bio-ethanol compared with fossil
transport fuels
• This alone has the potential to reduce CO2
equivalent to 100,000 electrical vehicles on the road
or 600 transatlantic flights annually
Carbalyst® technology
32
ToreroReducing iron ore with waste carbon
33
• Developing our first large-scale Torero demonstration
plant in Ghent, Belgium
• Target the production of ‘circular carbon’ inputs, such
as bio-coal from waste wood to displace the fossil fuel
coal currently injected into the blast furnace
• €40 million investment aims to convert 120,000 tonnes
of waste agricultural and forestry residues into bio-coal
annually
• Future projects would see expansion of sources of
circular carbon to other forms of bio- and plastic waste
Torero technology
33
H2 HamburgReducing iron ore with hydrogen
34
• Planned €65 million investment at our Hamburg site
• An industrial-scale experimental DRI installation on
100% pure hydrogen for the direct reduction of iron ore
in the steel production process
• Installation will generate the hydrogen from gas
separation of the waste gases at the existing plant and
demonstrate the technology with an annual production
of 100,000 tonnes of iron per year
• In the future, the plant should also be able to run on
green hydrogen (generated from renewable sources)
when it is available in sufficient quantities at affordable
prices.
Reducing iron ore with hydrogen
34
Trade
35
35
Trade cases:
• All key flat rolled steel products AD/CVD cases have been implemented
• Anti-circumvention petitions filed in September 2016 by the US industry and initiated by DOC for CRC and
CORE imports from China (via Vietnam); final affirmative determination received May 17, 2018
• In June 2018, the US industry filed anti-circumvention petitions with DOC for CRC and CORE imported from
Korea and Taiwan (through Vietnam); on July 3, 2019. DOC initiated the investigation on August 2, 2018.
Commerce reached affirmative preliminary decisions in the inquiries, with duties applied based on the exporters’
certification of the source of the substrate
• On July 30, 2019, the US ITC voted in favor of extending AD/CVD duties on HRC imports from China, India,
Indonesia, Taiwan, Thailand and Ukraine for another 5 years. This is the third 5-year review with these orders
having been in place since 2001. Section 232:• March 23, 2018: 25% tariffs on all steel product categories most countries
• June 1, 2018: 25% tariffs imposed on steel products in Europe, Canada & Mexico with the following exceptions:
• South Korea: Quota of 70% 2015-2017 average export volumes into US
• Brazil: Quota of 2015-2017 av. export volumes into US-70% for finished products; 100% for semi-finished
• Argentina: Quota of 135% of 2015-2017 average exports
• Australia completely exempt from tariffs and quotas
• Turkey: May 16, 2019, duties lowered back to 25% after having been at 50% since August 2018
• Canada/Mexico: May 17, 2019 tariffs removed for Canada & Mexico as well as retaliatory tariffs against the US
US tradeTrade cases and S232 addressing import challenges
36
36
Level playing field to avoid “carbon leakage”Discussions on Carbon Inclusion Mechanism ongoing
• ETS (Emission Trade System) growing restriction to CO2 allocations access significantly increasing price and affecting companies’ costs
• European steel players cannot pass-on their cost as it would cause lack of competitiveness vs. Non-EU players which are not subject to ETS rules
• With higher costs, European players will increase acquisition of slabs only relocating the CO2 generation to countries not subject to ETS, i.e., causing carbon leakage with no significant impact to World’s CO2 emissions
• To level the playing field among European players and foreign players selling in Europe, CO2 costs should also be applied to imports
• For Europe’s climate policy to be both effective and credible, a carbon neutral policy must avoid circumvention (“Carbon Leakage”).
• Realistic benchmarks based on verified emissions should be applied.
• To levy steel imports in to Europe with a CO2 cost in line with that incurred by domestic producers would equalise the conditions for local players and those exporting to Europe.
Rationale The proposal
37
37
Trade cases (Flat steel):
• All key flat rolled steel products Anti-dumping and countervailing duty cases have been implemented
• Monitoring for unfairly traded imports ongoing
Safeguard duties:
• Safeguard measures effective from February 2, 2019 through June 2021
• On May 17, 2019, the EC initiated a review of current safeguard measures with expected conclusion no later
than September 30, 2019
Eurofer position:
• Quarterly allocation for all country-specific quotas should be established. Access to remaining last-quarter quota
for exporting countries that have exhausted their country-specific quota should be fairly managed
• There should be national quarterly quotas for imports of hot-rolled flat steel products
• There is a need for re-alignment of the February quota increase (adjustment) to reflect the reality of the European
steel market situation
• Exemptions from developing countries when they exceed the “negligible imports” thresholds should be removed
(ex. stainless steel products from Indonesia). Imports from exempt developing countries should not be taken into
account when calculating the quotas, which should therefore be reduced by 2.4% on average
• For phase 2 from July 1, 2019, the quota levels increased by 5% across all product categories but should be
adapted to reflect market dynamics
EU tradeComprehensive solution for unfairly trade imports required
38
38
Steel Investments
39
39
Kryvyi Rih – New LF&CC 2&3Kryvyi Rih investments to ensure sustainability & improve productivity
• Facilities upgrade to switch from ingot to continuous
casting route; additional billets capacity of up to 290kt/y
• Industrial target:
• Step-by-step steel plant modernization with state-of-art
technology
• Product mix development
• Additional benefits:
• Cost reduction
• Billet quality improvement for sustaining customers
• Better yield and productivity
• LF&CC#3 is under commissioning June 2019
• LF&CC#2 expected to be completed in 2019
First heat cast at 6 strands of LFCC-340
40
ArcelorMittal Poland Sosnowiec Wire Rod Mill Long products strategy to grow HAV
41
• Sosnowiec is a double strand rolling mill located in Sosnowiec,
Poland.
• The investment is introducing new and innovative techniques for
the production of high quality wire rod for high demanding
applications (automotive app., steel cords, welding wires, cold
heading screws, suspension springs, special ropes)
• Phase 1 modernization has been done during the Nov 2018
stoppage. Then, the fine tuning has been done during the ramp
up phase which is today completed with a much better product
quality capability (narrow geometry dispersion and narrow
mechanical properties dispersion)
• Phase 2 modernization planned in Oct 2019 with focus on
volume productivity (+10%) and reliability via intermediate stands
and motors controlled by new automation system.
• Project completion planned end of 2019
41
Dofasco - Hot strip mill modernizationInvestments to modernize strip cooling & coiling flexibility to produce full range of target products
• Replace existing three end of life coilers with two state
of the art coilers and new runout tables
• Benefits of the project will be:
• Improved safety
• Increased product capability to produce higher
value products
• Cost savings through improvements to coil quality,
unplanned delay rates, yield and improved energy
efficiency
Current Status:
• Engineering and equipment manufacturing is
complete.
• Construction activities for coiler are on track
• Runout table installation works originally scheduled for
April 2019, will be effectively carried out during April
2020 shut down due to change in design and delay in
manufacturing project completion expected in 202142
June 2019 – New #4 & 5 Coiler Progress
42
Burns Harbour – Walking beam furnacesExpands surface capability to provide sustained automotive footprint
• Install 2 latest generation walking beam furnaces, including
recuperators & stacks, building extension & foundations for new
units
• Benefits associated to the project:
• Hot rolling quality and productivity
• Sustaining market position
• Reducing energy consumption
• Project completion expected in 2021
43
43
Macro highlights
44
44
Regional inventoryInventory levels in key regions in line with historical averages
* German inventories seasonally adjusted **Source: WSA, Mysteel, ArcelorMittal Strategy estimates
German inventories (000 Mt)*
China service centre inventories** (Mt/mth) with ASC%Brazil service centre inventories (000 Mt)
US service centre total steel inventories (000 Mt)
45
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0
5
10
15
20
25 Flat and long
% of ASC (RHS)(latest data point: May‐2019)
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400Flat stocks at service centresMonths Supply (RHS) (latest data point: May‐2019)
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000USA (MSCI)
Months Supply (RHS)
(latest data point: Jun‐2019)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400 Germany Stocks
Months supply (RHS)
(latest data point:Jun‐2019)
45
ChinaChinese inventory lower YoY; Exports down Y-o-Y
• Jun’19 finished steel exports of 5.3Mt down 7% MoM
• Jun’19 exports down 23% vs Jun’18 (6.9Mt)
• Jan–Jun 2019 YTD exports down 3.0% 2018 YTD levels
Source: ArcelorMittal Corporate Strategy team analysis 46
• 2019 CISA mill steel inventory lowest level in last 5 years
• Current 2019 levels down 9% YoY
CISA’s mill steel inventory data (the 2nd 10-day period of Jun) Chinese exports Mt
Dot on curves indicates timing of CNY
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12Exports of steel productsImports of steel productsNet-trade
(latest data point: Jun‐2019)
46
China focussed on capacity issuesGlobal overcapacity still a concern
• Chinese government committed to tackle overcapacity and environmental issues Permanent and illegal capacity targets in 2018 met though overcapacity still exists
• Steel replacement policy in favour of EAF v BF; no new capacity to be built ratio 1:1 for EAF and 1:1.25 for BF-BOF*
• Stronger domestic fundamentals plus global trade restrictions reduced incentive to export
• 3yr Blue Sky Campaign (2018-2020) - stringent emissions standards
• Winter capacity constraints supporting fundamentals through seasonally weaker demand period; delayed start in 2018
2019
• Winter capacity constraints expected Oct/Nov’19 – Mar’20 - based on ‘one-mill-one-policy’ principle (less impactful as more steel mills achieve the ultra-low emission standard and become exempted)
47* In the key regions (e.g. Jing-Jin-Ji, Fen-Wei area and Yangtze Delta Area, which take account 55% of overall crude steel capacity in China), 1:1 BF-BOF for non-key regions; ratio 1:1 for EAF no matter where the facilities are located
2019 steel exports stable YoY
Constraints expected to restart Oct/Nov’19-Mar’20 on one-mill-
one policy; moderately less
impactful
Permanent and illegal capacity cuts
achieved by end of 2018 → overcapacity
still exists
47
Global steel demandGlobal Apparent Steel Consumption (ASC) growth of +0.5% to +1.5% forecast in 2019F
Source: *ArcelorMittal estimates 48
Global ex China
+0.0% to +1.0%US
EU28
Global
CIS
Brazil
China
-2.0% to -1.0%
+0.5% +1.5%
+1.5% to 2.5%
+1.0% to +2.0%
+0.5% to +1.0%
+0.5% to +1.5%
Forecast ASC growth 2019F v 2018* at Aug 2019• Global apparent steel consumption to
grow by +0.5% to +1.5% in 2019F vs. 2018
• US: Demand remains positive driven by robust non-residential construction offset by ongoing weakness in automotive demand and a slowdown in machinery demand
• Europe: Demand decline largely due to weakening automotive
• China: Positive demand growth due to better than expected real estate demand
• Brazil: Demand moderated to reflect delay in infrastructure spending until pension reform is passed and impact from Argentina recession
Revised down from +0.5% to +1.5%
Revised down from -1.0% to 0.0%
Revised up from +0.0% to +1.0%
Revised down from +3.0% to +4.0%
Revised down from +1.0% to +2.0%
Revised down from +1.0% to +1.5%
48
Industry leadership
49
49
Leadership through innovation continuesR&D strength to drive innovation and maintain industry leadership position
50
• Global 2018 R&D spend $0.3bn (Automotive ~1/3); 1,300 full time researchers; 11 research centres EU/Americas
• Majority EU/NAFTA OEMs rank ArcelorMittal #1 in Technology: Steel to remain material for body structure application
• Leader in AHSS in both EU & NAFTA with the broadest portfolio of AHSS grades
50
Industry Leadership: Steligence® A radical new concept for the use of steel in construction
12-15
51
• Launched in June 2018, Steligence® is based on
extensive scientific research, independently peer-
reviewed
• Makes the case for a holistic approach to construction
that breaks down barriers, encouraging collaboration
between construction industry professionals
• Designed to resolve the competing demands of creativity,
flexibility, sustainability and economics
• Delivers efficiencies, benefits and cost savings to
architects, engineers, construction companies, real estate
developers, building owners, tenants and urban planners
• Will facilitate the next generation of high performance
buildings and construction techniques, and create a more
sustainable life cycle for buildings
• Our new Headquarters building is designed to showcase
the Steligence® concept
51
Industry Leadership: Transformation technologies Technology to potentially revolutionise the capture of BF carbon gas and convert it into bioethanol
12-15
• €120m project between ArcelorMittal & LanzaTech in Gent, Belgium, broke ground June 2018 • Technology to potentially revolutionise the capture of BF carbon gas and convert it into bioethanol• Licensed by LanzaTech, a proprietary microbe feeds on carbon monoxide to produce bioethanol,
to be used as transport fuel or potentially in the production of plastics• Annual production of bioethanol from this demonstration expected to reach around 80m litres,
which will yield an annual CO2 saving equivalent to 600 flights from London to New York• The new installation will create up to 500 construction jobs over the next two years and 20 to 30
new permanent direct jobs. Commissioning and first production is expected by mid-2020
52
52
ArcelorMittal IR Tools and Contacts
Team contacts London
Daniel Fairclough – Global Head Investor Relations (London)[email protected] +44 207 543 1105
Hetal Patel – UK/European Investor Relations (London)[email protected] +44 207 543 1128
Donna Pugsley– Investor Relations Assistant (London)[email protected] +44 203 214 2893
ArcelorMittal investor relationsapp available free for downloadon IOS or android devices
2018 Factbook & ClimateAction report availableto download online
Team contacts Global
Maureen Baker – Fixed Income/Debt IR (Paris)[email protected] +33 1 71 92 10 26
Lisa Fortuna – US Investor Relations (Chicago)[email protected] +1 312 899 3985
53