38
1Q17 Financial Results May 24 th , 2017
1Q17 Financial Results
May 24th, 2017
1 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to, and no responsibility is or will be
accepted by National Bank of Greece (the Group) as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in
this presentation and nothing in this presentation shall be deemed to constitute such a representation or warranty.
Although the statements of fact and certain industry, market and competitive data in this presentation have been
obtained from and are based upon sources that are believed to be reliable, their accuracy is not guaranteed and any
such information may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this presentation are
subject to change without notice. The Group is under no obligation to update or keep current the information
contained herein.
In addition, certain of these data come from the Group’s own internal research and estimates based on knowledge
and experience of management in the market in which it operates. Such research and estimates and their underlying
methodology have not been verified by any independent source for accuracy or completeness. Accordingly, you
should not place undue reliance on them.
Certain statements in this presentation constitute forward-looking statements. Such forward looking statements are
subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These risks and uncertainties
include, among other factors, changing economic, financial, business or other market conditions. As a result, you are
cautioned not to place any reliance on such forward-looking statements. Nothing in this presentation should be
construed as a profit forecast and no representation is made that any of these statement or forecasts will come to
pass. Persons receiving this presentation should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and are
advised to make their own independent analysis and determination with respect to the forecast periods, which reflect
the Group’s view only as of the date hereof.
Legal
Important Notice – Forward Looking Information
Table of Contents
1 Financial Highlights
2 Profitability
3 Asset Quality
4 Liquidity
5 Capital
6 Macro
7 Appendix
Financial Highlights
1
4 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
€ m 1Q17 1Q16 YoY 4Q161 qoq
NII 445 443 +0% 440 +1%
Net Fees & Commissions 63 31 >100% 58 +8%
Insurance income 22 18 +22% 23 -7%
Core Income 529 492 +8% 522 +1%
Trading & other income 0 (14) n/m 104 n/m
Income 529 478 +11% 626 -15%
Operating Expenses (270) (287) -6% (291) -7%
Core PPI 259 205 +27% 231 +12%
PPI 259 191 +36% 336 -23%
Provisions (235) (140) +68% (219) +8%
Operating Profit 24 51 -53% 117 -80%
Other impairments (7) (34) -81% (28) -77%
PBT 17 17 +2% 89 -81%
Taxes (12) (5) +100% (16) -26%
PAT (cont. ops) 5 12 -59% 73 -93%
P&L Highlights
1. 4Q16 trading & other income includes €150m gain from the sale of Astir Pallas
1Q17 PAT in positive territory; core PPI recovers sharply
Highlights
Group P&L
Driven by domestic operations, group core PPI reaches €259m,
up by 12% qoq and 27% yoy reflecting:
• Increasing core income (+8% yoy)
• Lower OpEx (-6% yoy)
More specifically:
• 1Q17 domestic core PPI reaches €244m (+13% qoq), reflecting
improving performance across all core lines: higher NII (+1.4%
qoq), Fees (+10.4% qoq) and lower OpEx (-7.1% qoq)
• Group OpEx reduction is driven by domestic personnel costs
(-11.7% yoy), reflecting the benefit of the December 2016 VES
involving c1,200 employees (c10% of domestic FTEs)
• Group credit risk charges pick up to 267bps (€235m) from 246bps
in 4Q16, due to the annual revaluation of domestic residential real
estate values for FY16 price developments; adjusting for that
charge would bring domestic CoR at c3Q16 levels
• Despite temporary CoR pick up, core PPI is sufficiently strong to
lead to a positive core operating result of €13m in the domestic
business and €24m for the Group
5 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Trend of NPE reduction continues in 2017
Liquidity, Asset Quality & Capital Highlights Key Ratios - Group
1Q17 FY16 9m16
Liquidity
Loans-to-Deposits ratio 88% 88% 90%
ELA exposure (€ bn) 5.6 5.6 5.2
Profitability
NIM (bps) 304 283 286
Cost-to-Core income 51% 57% 57%
Asset quality
NPE ratio 43.6% 43.6% 44.8%
NPE coverage ratio 56.0% 56.0% 56.3%
Cost of Risk (bps) 267 198 189
Capital
CET1 phased-in 16.0%1 16.3%1 16.4%2
CET1 ratio CRD IV FL 15,8%1 15.8%1 15.9%2
RWAs (€ bn) 41.31 41.11 40.32
1. Excludes the impact from the agreed sales of UBB, Interlease & SABA
2. Pro-forma for CoCos repayment
Highlights
Domestic NPE stock reduction continues in 2017
• NPE reduction continues in 2017, despite uncertainty during the first few months of
the year, which had a negative impact on performance
• NPEs were reduced further by €0.2b, reflecting zero formation and write offs
• NPE reduction achieved so far stands at €3.0b, constituting a buffer vs the SSM
targets of €0.7b
• NPE and NPL coverage remain at sector leading levels (57% and 75%)
By far lowest ELA exposure in the system at €5.6b
• ELA remains stable at €5.6b, despite a negative performance in the system’s deposit
flows, partly due to adverse seasonality and partly due to the temporary pick up in
uncertainty
• Execution of remaining capital actions and other initiatives, expected during the next
12-15 months, will permit NBG to disengage completely from ELA
• By far lowest ELA exposure of the sector, and a L:D ratio well below 100%, allow NBG
to take advantage of the expected recovery in corporate credit as soon as H217
CET 1 ratio at 16.0%1
• CET1 ratio on a CRD IV FL basis at 15.8%1
• Group RWAs at 41.31 of which €35.3b in Greece (phased in)
• UBB / Interlease are expected to close in mid-June
• Process for Insurance & Romania on track
Profitability
2
7 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
231 255 255 272 310
-164 -231 -201 -252 -294
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Domestic Core PPI margin1 (bps)
Domestic Core PPI bridge (€ m)Group Core PPI decomposition by region (€ m)
1. Core PPI margin and CoR are calculated over net loans
1Q17 domestic Core PPI up 13% qoq (+30% yoy), resulting in a margin of 310bps;
core operating margin positive at 16bps, despite temporary CoR pick up
Profitability
189208 205
216
244
17
16 15
15
15
206
224 220
231
259
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
GRE SEE & Other
216+6 +5 +0
+17 244
4Q16 ΔNII Δfees Δinsurance ΔOpEx 1Q17
Core PPI
margin
CoR
+29.6%
-9.0%
YoY
67 24 54 20 16 Core operating
margin
8 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
SEE & Other
Greece
396 400 403 393 398
268 274 283 286301
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
NII (€m) NIM (bps)
1Q17 domestic NII +1.4% qoq, NIM at 301bps (+15bps qoq)
Profitability
Domestic NII quarterly evolution (€ m)
Domestic NII breakdown
393 +6 +3
-3 -1
398
4Q16 Δloans Δdepos ΔEurosystem &
wholesale
Subs & other 1Q17
48 48 47 48 46
330 339 332 332 326
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
NII (€m) NIM (bps)
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Loans 395 384 378 360 366
Deposits -55 -46 -44 -40 -37
Bonds 85 83 79 81 81
Eurosystem &
wholesale-40 -36 -18 -18 -21
Subs & other 11 14 7 10 9
Total 396 400 403 393 398
9 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
17.7 17.8 17.7 18.0 17.8
6.6 6.8 7.2 7.6 7.0
11.5 11.1 11.1 11.3 11.3
35.7 35.7 36.036.8 36.1
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Time
Sight &
other
Savings
-2.1% qoq
Greek deposit yields (bps)
2420 20
18 17
132
113
103
95
89
62
5147
4441
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Time deposit yields down further, reflecting the ongoing narrowing of the front-
book to back-book spread, which will continue to support NII throughout 2017
Profitability
Greek deposits evolution (€ b)
Time
Total
New production
yield
at [69] bps
68% 69% 69% 69% 69% Core deposits/total
Mkt share 36%,
+1.6 ppts yoy
Core
10 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Greek lending yields1 (bps)
261 258 256 257 255
953 947 947933 932
672650 648 643
631
421 417 414403 404
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
1: Calculated on performing loans including FNPEs<90dpd
Domestic corporate performing loan balances stabilize, aided by €0.5b new
disbursements, while mortgage loans continue to shrink; loan yields stable qoq
Profitability
Greek loan evolution (€ b)
12.0 11.9 11.7 11.5 11.2
2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2
1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4
13.1 13.2 12.6 13.0 13.0
28.9 28.928.0 28.2 27.8
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Corporate
SBL
Consumer
Mortgages
Consumer
SBLs
Corporate
Mortgages
Total lending yield (bps)
-1.4% qoq
32.5 32.4 31.9 31.7 31.3 Net loans
Performing loans
409 404 402 396 395
11 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
22 20
27
20 22
21
9 8
8
1621 21
1Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Insurance
Fund mgm,
Brokerage &
other
Wholesale
Banking Fees
Retail Banking
Fees
51 5056
18 23
22
11
11
1180
84
89
1Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Group fees & insurance income (€ m)
1. Exclud. Pillar fee charges & Assets held-for-sale
Domestic fees up by +10% yoy; retail banking fees recover sharply, up by 30% qoq
Profitability
Domestic fees1 & insurance decomposition (€ m)
Fees/Assets1
51
+31%
YoY
Total
Total1
56Insurance
SEE &
Other
0.30%
Greece
+19%
7667
50
700.36%0.32%
+30%
qoq
-12%
+10%
+9%
12 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
56%55% 55%
53%
48%
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Domestic OpEx evolution (€ m)
Group OpEx by category (€ m)
Personnel costs decline 11% yoy, pushing down Cost to Core Income to 48%
Profitability
Headcount evolution (‘000)
Domestic cost-to-core income evolution
Greece Group
1Q17 1Q16 yoy 1Q17 1Q16 yoy
Personnel 142 161 -11.7% 166 185 -10.5%
G&As 61 58 +4.8% 77 75 +3.9%
Depreciation 24 24 -0.4% 27 27 -0.7%
Total 227 244 -6.7% 270 287 -5.9%
161 163 166 152 142
82 88 8693
85
244 251 252 245227
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
15.012.2 12.0 10.6 10.6
10.1
7.9 7.8
4.9 4.9
25.1
20.1 19.8
15.5 15.5
FY09 1 FY14 FY15 FY16 1Q17
G&A &
other
Staff
SEE &
Other
Greece
o/w:
Insurance: 0.8k
1
1. Excludes UBB employees
13 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Divestments: latest developments
1. Does not include discontinued operations of UBB & Interlease
Divestiture plan will enhance capital and liquidity meaningfully
Profitability
SEE headline figures1
P&L items (€ m) 1Q17 1Q16 YoY 4Q16 qoq
NII 46 48 -2.7% 48 -2.7%
Core income 58 60 -3.5% 61 -5.1%
OpEx (43) (43) -1.4% (46) -6.1%
Core PPI 15 17 -9.0% 15 -1.9%
Provisions (4) (6) -39.3% (18) -79.7%
Core Operating result 11 11 +0.1% (3) n/m
PAT (cont. ops) 8 13 -42.5% 1 >100%
• National Insurance in final stage to reach
an agreement
• UBB and Interlease closing in mid June
• SABA expected to close in H2.17
• Banca Romaneasca in advanced stage
• Excluding UBB, equity of remaining SEE
assets to be divested at €0.8b; RWAs at
€3.7b
Ratios 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 1Q16
NIM (bps) 326 332 332 330
Cost-to-Core income 74% 75% 75% 72%
90dpd ratio 23.6% 24.0% 23.9% 24.7%
90dpd coverage ratio 58.5% 58.6% 57.7% 58.8%
L/D ratio 104% 104% 104% 104%
Asset quality
3
15 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Remaining NPE reduction at €5.4b (€ b)
NPE operational targets for 2017 are attainable Parent NPE reduction targets (SSM perimeter) (€ b)
21.5
-3.0
-5.4 13.1
FY15 Done Remaining FY19
NPEs continue to decline in 1Q17; NPE reduction accomplished from end-2015 at
€3.0b
Asset quality
• Operational targets submitted to the SSM contain a reduction of
NPLs and NPEs by €7.4b and €8.5b over the period 2016-2019,
equal to a reduction of c.50% and 40% respectively
• Upon achieving these targets in 2019, NBG will have reduced its
NPL and NPE ratios by ca.15ppts, with NPE coverage around the
50% mark
• Already achieved reduction by €3.0b ytd, overshoots the target by
€0.7b, providing operating flexibility
15.2 15.3 15.0 15.0
14.0 13.9
12.6
7.7
6.4 0.0 6-0.9 5.6
-1.04.7
-0.9 4.7-0.2 4.6
-0.4
-5.0 5.4
21.5 21.5
20.6
19.618.7 18.5
18.1
13.1
-8.5
NPLs
NPEs
NPE reduction target
Total targeted:
-€8.5b
Remaining effort benefits
from a €0.7b buffer
16 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
15.4 15.1 15.3 14.4 14.3
6.6 5.9 4.84.8 4.7
22.0 21.120.1
19.2 19.0
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
FNPEs & other
impaired
90dpd
Domestic NPE stock evolution (€ b)
Domestic NPE stock movement (€ b)Domestic NPE stock per category – 1Q17 (€ b)
Despite uncertainty, the NPE stock declined in 1Q17, due to near zero formation
and write offs
Asset quality
49.6% 47.9% 46.4% 45.1% 45.1%NPE ratio
5.6
2.5 2.2
3.9
1.4
0.40.3
2.6
6.9
2.82.5
6.6
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate
FNPE & other
impaired
90dpd
14.3
19.0
22.0
-0.6-0.3
21.1
-0.7-0.2
20.1
-0.2 -0.7
19.2 +0.05
-0.2
19.0
17 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Mortgages (€ m)
Asset quality
NPE formation close to zero despite a pick up in uncertainty during 1Q17
Consumer (€ m) Domestic NPE formation (€ m)
SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)
-5
-553-609
-131
66
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
-13
-108 -101
-50 -34
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
11
-39
-81
-4
9
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
-13
51 32
-20
13
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
-20
-649
-759
-205
54
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
18 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Mortgages (€ m)
Asset quality
1Q17 domestic 90dpd formation turns positive (+€137m), due to mortgage NPLs
already included within the NPE perimeter
Consumer (€ m) Domestic 90dpd formation (€ m)
SBLs (€ m) Corporate (€ m)
-117-70 -32
42
145
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
-26 -19-8
0 9
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
10
-13-52
-3
7
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
260
106
280
-292
-24
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
127
3
188
-253
137
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
19 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Domestic NPE ratios and coverage per segment
Domestic 90dpd ratios per segment
1. Bank level
NBG maintains the lowest 90dpd and NPE ratios in Greece, along with the highest
cash coverage ratios
Asset quality
Domestic forborne stock breakdown (€ bn)
Domestic 90dpd – NPE bridge (€ bn)
Cash
coverage
Cash
coverage
14% 49% 47% 25% 26%LLAs/
Gross loans
14.3
2.9 1.0 0.719.0
90dpd FNPE <30 FNPE 31-90 Other impaired NPEs
42%
94% 77%
108% 75% 74%
33%
52%
61%
23%
34% 33%
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group
34%
82% 67%
65% 57% 56%
41%
60%
71%
39%45% 44%
Mortgages Consumer SBL Corporate Total GRE Group
FNPE<30 dpd
2.9
FNPE 31-90dpd
1.0
FNPE >90dpd
3.2
FPE 3.0
10.1
Collateral
coverage176% 8% 52% 52% 54%
SEE & other:
90dpd ratio: 24%
Coverage: 59%
SEE & other:
NPE ratio: 29%
Coverage: 48%
20 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Domestic 90dpd formation and provisions
1. CoR (bps) excludes AQR charges, calculated on net loans
2. Peer comparison is based on latest available data
TBV at €6.8b, net NPLs at €4.0b
Peer Group analysis2: asset quality (Group)
164 231 201 252 294CoR1
(bps)
Coverage
ratio
90dpd
ratio
TBV less net
NPLs (€b)
6.8 7.3 8.7 5.6 TBV (€ b)
Unprovided
NPLs (€ b)4.0 7.4 7.1 6.0
€2.8b -€0.1b €1.6b -€0.4b
74%69% 69%
66%
33%
37%38%
35%
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
127
3
188
-253
137134
188162
200
232
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
90dpd flows (€ m) Provisions (€ m)
Liquidity
4
22 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Eurosystem collateral cash values (€b) | May 2017
Peer group analysis1: liquidity position (Group)Eurosystem funding (€ b)
1. Latest available data
2. Excl. EFSF & ESM bonds
ELA exposure remains broadly stable ytd at €5.7b, despite 1Q pressure on deposits
14.2
9.8 10.0 10.1
12.5 11.8
8.97.5 6.7
4.6 5.2
13.9
17.615.6 11.5
11.0
6.1
5.25.6
5.65.7
14.2
23.6
27.6
25.6
24.0
22.8
14.9
12.6 12.3
10.210.9
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 May17
€4.8b in
outstanding
interbank
repos
5.7
11.913.0
11.6
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
L:D ratio 88% 115%135%117%
8% 20%21%17%
EFSF / ESM
2.8
Other
1.4
Tbills & GGBs
1.1 0.8
10.8
2.3
13.9
Cov. bonds
Credit claims
Other
Estimated cash value of eligible collateral:
€ 19.2b
ECB:
€ 5.2b
ELA
ECB
ELA/
Assets2
23 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
-2.2
-4.8
-3.6
0.30.8
-0.9
0.00.3
0.9
-0.8
4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Deposit evolution by geography (€ b)
35.7 35.7 36.0 36.9 36.1
3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Deposit stock reduction ytd reflects adverse seasonality and uncertainty pick up
Liquidity
NBG domestic deposit flows per quarter (€ b)
YoY
+1.0%
-1.3%
Group
SEE &
Other
Greece
39.3 39.3 39.6 40.5 39.7 +0.8%
-€10.6 b +€0.6 b
-2.2% qoq
24 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
44.3 44.0 43.3 42.6 42.1
4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
91% 91%89%
86%87%
92% 92% 90%88%
88%
141%
138%
134%
130%
130%
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17
Domestic L:D ratio evolution
1: Peer average data excluding NBG, based on latest available data
Lowest ELA exposure and L:D ratio permit the Bank to satisfy healthy demand for
corporate credit, expected to pick up in 2H17
Gross loan evolution by geography (€ b)
Liquidity
NBG Group
Peer domestic
L:D ratio1
SEE &
other
Greece
48.7 48.4 47.7 46.9 46.4
YoY
-5.1%
-2.2%
-4.9%Group
-1.2% qoq
NBG Greece
Capital
5
26 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
16.3%16.0%
8.75%
15.8%
12.25%
4Q16 1Q17 2017 SREP CRD IV fully
loaded
Peer Group analysis1,2: CET1 Capital ratios
Ordinary equity to CET 1 reconciliation (€ bn)CET 1 ratio
6.96.6
-0.1
+0.1
-0.3
Ordinary
equity
GW &
intangibles
Minority
interest
Other CET1
1. Peer comparison is based on latest available data
2. Excl. Preference shares
CET1 ratio at 16.0%, CRDIV fully loaded at 15.8%
Capital
RWAs
(€ bn)
15.8% 16.2% 16.7%13.9%
16.0%17.0% 17.1%
14.8%
NBG Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
Phased-in
Fully loaded
41.1 41.3
CET1:
€6.7bn
41.3
CET1:
€6.5bn
CET1:
€6.6bn
DTC:
€4.8b
CET1:
8.75%
OCR:
12.25%
Macro
6
28 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Sources: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, Eurostat, Bloomberg, EU Commission, MTFS for 2018-2021
0
4
8
12
16
0
4
8
12
16
Feb
-13
May-13
Aug
-13
No
v-13
Feb
-14
May-14
Aug
-14
No
v-14
Feb
-15
May-15
Aug
-15
No
v-15
Feb
-16
May-16
Aug
-16
No
v-16
Feb
-17
mid
May-17
Greece Portugal Italy
% Agreement on
3rd Program
Agreementon short-term debt relief measures
0.3
3.7
-2.3
1.6
-0.3
0.5
1.8
3.5
0.5
4.2
1.9*
3.5*
-2,5
-1,5
-0,5
0,5
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
2015 2016 2017e 2018f
Annual change in primary surplus (as % of GDP)
Primary surplus - 3rd Programme target (as % of GDP)
Primary surplus (as % of GDP)
% of GDP
* Medium Term Fiscal Strategy (MTFS) for 2018-2021 -2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
FR ES FI
SK
BE
EE
EU
AT
EA LV
NL
LT IT IE LU SI
DE
PT
MT
CY
GR
General government primary balance (as % of GDP)* - 2016
% of GDP
*excluding
banking system
support
3
6
9
12
15
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jan-1
5Feb
-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-
15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-15
Dec-
15
Jan-1
6Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Apr-
16
May-
16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Aug
-16
Sep
-16
Oct
-16
No
v-16
Dec-
16
Jan-1
7Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-
17
FTSE/ATHEX Larg Cap (left axis)
10yr Greek Government bond yield (right axis)
Greek non-financial corp. bond yield (BoG Composite Index, right axis)
Capital
controls &
3rd MoU
index %
mid
Fiscal adjustment in 2016 – exceeding even the most optimistic estimates – in conjunction with
substantial progress in completing the 2nd review of the program, boost Greece’s credibility
and limit downside risks to growth
Greece: Gen. Government Primary balance (as % of GDP) Gen. Government: Primary balance (as % of GDP) - 2016
10-year government bond spreads over bund Greek Sovereign, corporate bond yields & stock market
29 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
GDP growth (y-o-y and q-o-q, s.a.)
Sources: EL.STAT., Greek MinFin, Greek Ministry of Labor, Social Insurance & Welfare, EU Commission, Bank of Greece & NBG estimates
Employment growth (LFS) & new hirings (ERGANI)
-6-5-4-3-2-101234
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
Q4:
2012
Q1:
2013
Q2:
2013
Q3:
2013
Q4:
2013
Q1:
2014
Q2:
2014
Q3:
2014
Q4:
2014
Q1:
2015
Q2:
2015
Q3:
2015
Q4:
2015
Q1:
2016
Q2:
2016
Q3:
2016
Q4:
2016
Q1:
2017
Q2:
2017
Q3:
2017
Q4:
2017
GDP (q-o-q, s.a., right axis) GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a., left axis)
%
-0.1% q-o-q &-0.5% y-o-y in
Q1:2017 fore
cast
s
Gov. arrears clearance and public investment
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
Q1:2
016
Q2:2
016
Q3:2
016
Q4:2
016
Q1:2
017
Q2:2
017
H1
:2017
Payments for arrears clearance (incl. tax refunds, % GDP)
Public investment budget expenditure (% GDP)
as % of GDP forecasts
Economic activity in Greece contracted at a slower pace in Q1:2017, dragged down by a negative
carry from declining GDP in Q4:2016 and a smaller-than-expected improvement in liquidity
conditions. Nevertheless, residential and commercial real estate prices are stabilizing
-100-75-50-250255075100
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jun
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
Dec-1
5
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Jun
-16
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Dec-1
6
Feb
-17
Ap
r-1
7
y-o-y
Net hiring (wage earners, monthly flow, ERGANI, right axis)
Employment growth (LFS data, left axis)
thousand
persons
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
H2
:2008
H1
:2009
H2
:2009
H1
:2010
H2
:2010
H1
:2011
H2
:2011
H1
:2012
H2
:2012
H1
:2013
H2
:2013
H1
:2014
H2
:2014
H1
:2015
H2
:2015
H1
:2016
H2
:2016
Office prices (Athens, y-o-y) Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y)
House prices (total, y-o-y)
y-o-y
Real estate prices (y-o-y)
30 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Sources: EL.STAT., Bank of Greece, EU Commission, SETE & NBG estimates
60
65
70
75
-16
-11
-6
-1
4
9
14
Mar-
10
Jul-
10
No
v-10
Mar-
11
Jul-
11
No
v-11
Mar-
12
Jul-
12
No
v-12
Mar-
13
Jul-
13
No
v-13
Mar-
14
Jul-
14
No
v-14
Mar-
15
Jul-
15
No
v-15
Mar-
16
Jul-
16
No
v-16
Mar-
17
Capacity utilization (right axis)
Manufacturing production (y-o-y, 3m m.a., left axis)
% index
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
-50-40-30-20-10
01020304050
No
v-14
Dec-14
Jan-1
5Feb
-15
Mar-
15
Apr-
15
May-15
Jun
-15
Jul-
15
Aug
-15
Sep
-15
Oct-
15
No
v-15
Dec-15
Jan-1
6Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Apr-
16
May-16
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Aug
-16
Sep
-16
Oct-
16
No
v-16
Dec-16
Jan-1
7Feb
-17
Transportation (y-o-y, 12m m.a., left axis)
Other services (y-o-y, 12m m.a., left axis)
Tourism receipts (y-o-y, 12m m.a., right axis)
Exports of goods (excl. oil, y-o-y, 12m m.a., right axis)
Capital
controls
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7f
Tourist arrivals (excl. cruises, y-o-y) Tourism receipts (excl. cruises, y-o-y)
y-o-y y-o-y
-85
-75
-65
-55
-45
-35
-25
-15
-5
5
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Jun
-12
Aug
-12
Oct
-12
Dec-
12
Feb
-13
Apr-
13
Jun
-13
Aug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec-
13
Feb
-14
Apr-
14
Jun
-14
Aug
-14
Oct
-14
Dec-
14
Feb
-15
Apr-
15
Jun
-15
Aug
-15
Oct
-15
Dec-
15
Feb
-16
Apr-
16
Jun
-16
Aug
-16
Oct
-16
Dec-
16
Feb
-17
Apr-
17
Industrial (left axis) Services (left axis)
Retail (left axis) Construction (right axis)
Greece: Business confidence indicators
Healthy, export-oriented corporate activity is gaining traction, with manufacturing and services
outperforming, supported by favorable prospects for tourism and goods exports
Manufacturing production and capacity utilization Tourism: Arrivals & Revenue (excluding cruises)
Goods and services exports (y-o-y)
Appendix
7
32 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Special Asset (Corporate) and Retail Collections Units
Corporate NPL Management
Special Assets Unit (“SAU”) is a centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility for the
management of corporate NPLs with:
− Vertically integrated management to ensure single point accountability and efficient
decision making
− Dedicated SAU RMs and separate Credit Committees
− Clear prioritisation strategy based on ageing, size, collateralisation levels and legal
status
− Internally developed tools to prioritise alternative strategies and assess debtors’
viability
− Short-term and longer-term target setting and RM productivity monitored monthly
− Certain corporate exposures are managed by the business unit
Overview of Portfolio
Retail Collections Unit
Retail Collections Unit (“RCU”) is an independent unit focused on management of
retail NPLs and collections
− Centralised unit with end-to-end responsibility
− Strategy differentiated by customer segmentation: collecting in early buckets,
restructuring subsequently, legal actions according to selection criteria, and
settlements for >360dpd
− New restructuring products designed to ensure solution sustainability based on
PTI and on client’s disposable income after subtracting reasonable living
expenses
− Tight performance monitoring of internal collection center and external
agents and lawyers through comprehensive KPIs
− Champion/challenger tactics frequently employed to test new segment strategies
based on cohort attributes (profession, income, dpd, collateral)
Retail Balance (€bn) Treatment Clients (‘000) FTE
Mortgages 8.8 Collections 117 227
Consumer 3.0 Restructuring 44 147
Micro-SBL 1.4 Legal/ 228 353
Settlements
Total 13.1 390 727
Branches (execution) 867
Various support functions 130
c. 2,000 FTEs deployed in
collections and NPL
management
Source: NBG
Notes: all NBG figures refer to domestic Greek business, data as of 31.12.16
(1) SME: small & medium enterprises
(2) SBL: small business loans
(2)
Asset quality
(3) & (4)
Corporate Balance (€bn)of which
(denounced)#Clients FTEs
Large Corporates 1.9 0.4 424 27
SMEs 2.5 1.2 4,063 73
SBL 1.1 0.5 6,547 77
Denounced (Admin.) n.a n.a. 5,562 53
Legal, Control & Operational 58
Total 5.7 17,111 288
(1)
(3) Denounced: legal procedures have been initiated.
(4) Clients with all contracts denounced
33 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Balance Sheet | Group
Group Balance Sheet & P&L
P&L | Group
€ m 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16
Cash & Reserves 1 571 1 501 1 485 1 569 1 616
Interbank placements 2 108 2 227 2 773 2 803 2 651
Securities 19 075 20 934 22 244 23 338 24 525
Loans (Gross) 46 374 46 927 47 701 48 375 48 743
Provisions (11 325) (11 457) (12 021) (12 207) (12 420)
Goodwill & intangibles 134 137 133 135 136
Tangible assets 1 291 1 286 1 282 1 285 1 286
DTA 5 076 5 078 5 076 5 082 5 089
Other assets 7 468 8 174 9 030 9 029 8 582
Assets held for sale 3 785 3 725 4 034 4 502 31 531
Total assets 75 557 78 531 81 737 83 911 111 738
Interbank liabilities 16 548 18 188 17 778 20 224 24 975
Due to customers 39 663 40 459 39 607 39 292 39 352
Debt securities 560 673 1 514 1 272 1 260
Other liabilities 8 168 8 625 10 014 10 087 9 593
Hybrids - - - - -
Liabilities held for sale 3 015 3 000 3 018 3 272 26 696
Minorities 689 680 708 701 735
Equity 6 914 6 906 9 099 9 064 9 128
Total liabilities and
equity75 557 78 531 81 737 83 911 111 738
Appendix
€ m 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16
NII 445 440 451 448 443
Net fees 63 58 54 49 31
Insurance income 22 23 12 23 18
Core Income 529 522 516 520 492
Trading & other income1 0 104 (22) (53) (14)
Income 529 626 494 467 478
Operating Expenses (270) (291) (296) (296) (287)
Core Pre-Provision Income 259 231 220 224 205
Pre-Provision Income 259 336 198 171 191
Provisions (236) (219) (166) (190) (140)
Operating Profit 24 117 32 (20) 51
Other impairments (7) (28) (20) (12) (34)
PBT 17 89 12 (31) 17
Taxes (12) (16) (6) (7) (5)
PAT (cont. ops) 5 73 6 (38) 12
PAT (discount. ops) 17 (1) 16 (3 013) 85
Minorities (9) 1 (7) (10) (10)
Attributable PAT2 13 73 15 (3 062) 87
1. 4Q16 includes €150m gain from the sale of Astir Pallas, 2. Group attributable income includes a loss of €3,095m in 2Q16 which reflects the recycling of losses recognized in other comprehensive income in previous periods and relates
mainly to foreign currency translation differences from the translation of Finansbank’s assets and liabilities in Euro, in accordance with IFRS. This loss has already been recognized in the Group’s equity and CET1 capital in prior periods,
therefore has no impact on the Group’s equity and CET1 capital
34 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Greece
Regional P&L: Greece, SEE & other
Appendix
SEE & Other
€ m 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16
NII 398 393 403 400 396
Net fees 52 47 44 37 20
Insurance income 21 21 10 22 16
Core Income 471 461 457 459 432
Trading & other income 1 99 (25) (52) (19)
Income 472 560 432 407 413
Operating Expenses (227) (245) (252) (251) (244)
Core Pre-Provision Income 244 216 205 208 188
Pre-Provision Income 245 315 181 155 169
Provisions (232) (200) (162) (188) (134)
Operating Profit 13 115 19 (32) 35
Other impairments (6) (29) (20) (11) (34)
PBT 7 86 (0) (44) 1
Taxes (10) (14) (4) (5) (3)
PAT (cont. ops) (3) 72 (5) (49) (2)
€ m 1Q17 4Q16 3Q16 2Q16 1Q16
NII 46 48 47 48 48
Net fees 11 11 11 11 11
Insurance income 1 3 1 1 2
Core Income 58 61 59 61 60
Trading & other income (1) 5 3 0 5
Income 57 66 62 60 65
Operating Expenses (43) (46) (44) (45) (43)
Core Pre-Provision Income 15 15 15 16 17
Pre-Provision Income 14 21 17 16 22
Provisions (4) (18) (4) (3) (6)
Operating Profit 11 2 13 13 16
Other impairments (1) 0 (1) (1) (0)
PBT 10 3 13 12 15
Taxes (2) (2) (2) (2) (2)
PAT (cont. ops) 8 1 11 11 13
35 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Name Abbreviation Definition
Common Equity / Book Value BVEquity attributable to NBG shareholders less minorities (non-controlling interests) and contingent convertible
securities (CoCos)
Core Equity Tier 1 Ratio CET1 ratio CET1 capital, as defined by Regulation No 575/2013 and based on the transitional rules over RWAs
Core Equity Tier 1 Ratio Fully Loaded CET1 ratio, CRD IV FL CET1 capital as defined by Regulation No 575/2013, without the application of the transitional rules over RWAs
Core Income CI Net Interest Income (“NII”) + Net fee and commission income + Earned premia net of claims and commissions
Core Operating Result (Profit / (Loss)) - Core income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)
Core Operating Margin - Core operating profit / (loss) annualized over average net loans
Core Pre-Provision Income Core PPI Core Income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)
Core Pre-Provision Margin Core PPI margin Core PPI annualized over average net loans
Cost of Risk / Provisioning Rate CoR Credit provisions of the period annualized over average net loans
Cost-to-Core Income Ratio C:CI Operating expenses over core Income
Cost-to-Income Ratio C:I Operating expenses over total income
Deposit Yields - Annualized interest expense on deposits over deposit balances
Forborne -Exposures for which forbearance measures have been extended according to EBA ITS technical standards on
Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures
Forborne Non-Performing Exposures FNPEsExposures with forbearance measures that meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according to EBA
ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures
Forborne Performing Exposures FPEs
Exposures with forbearance measures that do not meet the criteria to be considered as non performing according
to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-Performing Exposures and forborne exposures under
probation period
Funding cost - The blended cost of deposits, ECB refinancing, repo transactions and ELA funding
Gross Loans -Loans and advances to customers before allowance for impairment, excluding the loan to the Greek State of
€6.2bn
Loan Yield - Annualized loan interest income over gross performing loan balances
Loans-to-Deposits Ratio L:D Net loans over total deposits, period end
Definition of financial data & ratios used
36 National Bank of Greece 1Q17 results
Name Abbreviation DefinitionNet Interest Margin NIM NII annualized over average interest earning assets
Net Loans - Loans and advances to customers, excluding the loan to the Greek State of €6.0bn
Net Profit / (Loss) - Profit / (loss) for the period attributable to NBG equity shareholders
Non-Performing Exposures NPEs
Non-performing exposures are defined according to EBA ITS technical standards on Forbearance and Non-
Performing Exposures as exposures that satisfy either or both of the following criteria:
a) Material exposures which are more than 90 days past due
b) The debtor is assessed as unlikely to pay its credit obligations in full without realization of collateral, regardless
of the existence of any past due amount or of the number of days past due.
Non-Performing Exposures Coverage Ratio NPE coverage Stock of provisions (allowance for impairment for loans and advances to customers) over non-performing
exposures, period end
Non-Performing Exposures Ratio NPE ratio Non-performing exposures over gross loans, period end
Non-Performing Loans NPLs Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more
90 Days Past Due Coverage Ratio 90dpd coverage Stock of provisions over loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more, period end
90 Days Past Due Formation 90dpd formationNet increase / (decrease) of loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more, before write-offs and
after restructurings
90 Days Past Due Ratio 90dpd ratio Loans and advances to customers in arrears for 90 days or more over gross loans, period end
Operating Expenses OpEx, costsPersonnel expenses + General, administrative and other operating expenses (“G&As”) + Depreciation and
amortisation on investment property, property & equipment and software & other intangible assets
Operating Profit / (Loss) - Total income less operating expenses and provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)
Pre-Provision Income PPI Total income less operating expenses, before provisions (credit provisions and other impairment charges)
Profit / (loss) after tax PAT (cont. ops) Profit / (loss) for the period from continuing operations
Risk Weighted Assets RWAsAssets and off-balance-sheet exposures, weighted according to risk factors based on Regulation (EU) No
575/2013
Tangible Equity / Book Value TBV Common equity less goodwill & intangibles (goodwill, software and other intangible assets)
Total deposits - Due to customers
Definition of financial data & ratios used
Contact details
Paul Mylonas
Deputy CEO
+30210 334 1521
Greg Papagrigoris
Head of IR
+30210 334 2310
This presentation is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy. No part of
this presentation may be construed as constituting investment advice or recommendation to enter into any transaction. No representation or warranty is given with
respect to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, and no claim is made that any future to transact any securities will
conform to any terms that may be contained herein. Before entering into any transaction, investors should determine any economic risks and benefits, as well as
any legal, tax, accounting consequences of doing so, as well as their ability to assume such risks, without reliance on the information contained in this presentation.
Ioannis Kyriakopoulos
Group CFO
+30210 334 3051
Maria Kanellopoulou
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1537
Ilias Katsikalis
Investor Relations
+30210 334 1401
