1st USP Conference in Engineering

Energy in Brazil and the world

Escola Politécnica

Prof. José Goldemberg

26/10/2011

Biogas 8%

Bioelectricity 28%

Biomass heat (CHP) 47%

Ethanol 13%

Biodiesel 4%

Biogas

Bioelectricity

Biomass heat (CHP)

Ethanol

Biodiesel

The role of modern biomass in the world`s energy

supply

OECD90 REF ASIA MAF LAC WorldOECD90 REF ASIA MAF LAC World

Primary Energy [EJ]BiomassCoalOilGasNuclearOther renewables

Final Energy [EJ]BiomassCoalOil productsGasElectricityHeat

Useful Energy [EJ]IndustryNon energyResidentialComm./Agr.Transport

496

3348140

56219

496

3348140

56219

330

22339235148

330

22339235148

169

1112412382

169

1112412382

34 7 16 4 4 66 66

9454 1903 4526 1195 1179 18256 18256

66

4416

7

34

18256

117911984526

1903

9454

TWh

EJElectricity [TWh/EJ]BiomassCoalOilGasNuclearHydroOther renewables

OECD90 REF ASIA MAF LAC World

66

4416

7

3466

4416

7

34

18256

117911984526

1903

945418256

117911984526

1903

9454

TWh

EJElectricity [TWh/EJ]BiomassCoalOilGasNuclearHydroOther renewables

Electricity [TWh/EJ]BiomassCoalOilGasNuclearHydroOther renewables

OECD90 REF ASIA MAF LAC WorldOECD90 REF ASIA MAF LAC World

Problems with the present energy system

i. Exhaustion of fossil resources

ii. Security of supply

iii. Environmental impacts

10 Fluxos de petróleo

Segurança de Abastecimento

13

A Competitividade Econômica

entre Etanol e Gasolina

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000

Ethanol Cumulative Production (thousand m 3 )

pri

ce p

aid

to

eth

an

ol p

rod

ucers

;

gaso

lin

e p

rices

(2004)

US

$ / m

3

Ethanol prices in Brazil Rotterdam regular gasoline price BR regular gasoline price

2000

1990

1980

1980

1990

2000 20052005

2000

2004

1990

1980

Av

era

ge

an

d M

in/M

ax In

ve

stm

en

t C

os

ts U

S$2

004

/kW

FF

98/k

W

1999

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

France average

US average

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

10000

500

5000

1000

2000

5000

20000

15000

10000

7500

25000

20 505

1972

1975

1985

1980

1990

1996

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

France average

US average

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

10000

500

5000

1000

2000

5000

20000

15000

10000

7500

25000

20 505

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

France average

US average

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

10000

500

5000

1000

2000

5000

20000

15000

10000

7500

25000

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

France average

US average

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

10000

500

5000

1000

2000

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

France average

US average

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

France average

US average

100

1000

10000

1 10 100

cum GW installed

20

04

$/k

W

100

1000

10000

100000

19

98

FF

/kW

10000

500

5000

1000

2000

5000

20000

15000

10000

7500

25000

20 505

1972

1975

1985

1980

1990

1996

19901985

19801977

1999

Oferta de energia - MundoEnergia Renovável: 13,3%

Hidráulica e Eletricidade

2,1% Biomassa Tradicional

10,7%

Produtos de Cana

0,5%

Gás Natural

20,9%

Nuclear

10,7%

Petróleo e Derivados

35,3%

Carvão Mineral

24,1%

Oferta de Energia - BrasilEnergia Renovável: 45,0%

Nuclear

1,6%

Gás Natural

9,6%

Carvão Mineral

6,0%Petróleo e

Derivados

37,8%

Produtos de

Cana

14,6%

Biomassa

Tradicional

15,6%

Hidráulica e

Eletricidade

14,8%

Oferta de Energia - São PauloEnergia Renovável: 49,8%

Hidráulica e

Eletricidade

16,8%

Petróleo e

Derivados

40,0%

Carvão Mineral

2,7%

Gás Natural

7,5%

Biomassa

Tradicional

5,0%

Produtos de

Cana

28,0%Ano: 2006

A evolução da matriz energética brasileira

(2010 – 2030)

Fontes 2010 2020 2030

Hidroelétricas (incluindo Itaipu) 82.90 115.1 148.6

Térmicas 17.5 28.9 42.6

Gás Natural 9.2 11.7 17.5

Nuclear 2.0 3.4 7.4

Carvão 1.8 3.2 4.9

Outras 4.5 10.6 12.88

Alternativas 9.1 27.0 40.8

PCHs (Pequenas Centrais Hidroelétricas) 3.8 6.4 9.0

Eólica 0.8 11.5 13.5

Biomassa 4.5 9.1 22.3

Total 109,6 171.1 232.0

Fontes PDE 2020

PNE 2030

EVOLUÇÃO DA CAPACIDADE INSTALADA EXCLUINDO HIDRO (MW)

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MW

Uranio Gás natural Carvão Óleo combustivel Óleo diesel Gás de processo PCH Biomassa Eólica

Relation between GDP per capita and per capita

energy use, 2008

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

- 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

GD

P (

PP

P)

pe

r ca

pit

a (

tho

usa

nd

20

00

USD

)

TPES per capita (toe)

Qatar

Iceland

Kuwait United Arab Emirates

USA

Bahrain

Canada

Hong Kong

Norway

Brunei

Trinidad and Tobago Saudi Arabia

Russia

Kazakhstan

Korea

Uzbekistan

Malta

Greece

Estonia Oman

Netherlans

Denmark

Belgium

Uruguay

Ukraine

Poland

HDI vs kWh/capita (2008)

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Hu

man

Dev

elo

pm

en

t In

dex

103 kWh per capita

Russia

Ireland

Hungary

Australia USA Canada

Congo

South Africa

Korea

Saudi Arabia

Ethiopia

United Arab Emirates Kuwait

Qatar

New Zealand

India

Brazil

Panama Slovenia