WB GLOBAL CITIZENSHIP ADVANCEDKEY QUESTION: SHOULD YOU BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF AN AGEING POPULATION?

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What is an Ageing population?

An ageing population is caused by a decline in birth rates, an increase in life expectancy and a decline in death rates.

The UK has an ageing population. This has led to a declining proportion of the population aged under 16 and an increasing proportion aged 65 and over.

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What is a population pyramid?• A population pyramid is a graph which is used to

show the structure of a population.They are divided up into

males and femalesThe data is sorted into different

age groupsThe

youngest people are

at the bottom

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UK

From a population pyramid it is possible to identify what stage of the demographic

transition model a country is in.

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What is the issue? Many developed nations, including Britain, are experiencing the rapid ageing of their populations.

Adapting to this trend poses  economic, social and political challenges which will raise the dependency of older citizens  on those of working age.

 Japan, Germany Italy, Spain,  Russia and China all face the beginning of a similar demographic fate over the next few decades.

There are two megatrends causing these demographic changes:1 Low / declining fertility rateWomen in Britain are having fewer children that previous generations

2 Rising longevityPeople are living longer, through improvements in health, diet and preventative care

http://www.21stcenturychallenges.org/focus/britains-greying-population/

Some ageing population driversDeclining fertility rates Increased life expectancy and falling death

rates.Knowledge empowerment - impact of improved health and education policies i.e. family planning, contraception, western society trend. How will migration help some economies facing structural decline?

General improvements in life expectancy, but still a geographic lottery. Where you live and income levels are factors. Why?

High cost of bringing up children in UK – child care, housing costs and high cost of living – “Rip-off Britain” argument.

Improvements in health care mean illness is diagnosed and treated effectively.

Issues around equality, or, lack of it, still. High standard of living e.g central heating, good diet, exercise, education.

Need for dual incomes to maintain affordable living standard.

Less arduous occupations. Can you think of any?

Less children = more disposal income Improvements in maternity care.

Dependance on parents for support because of high costs – the new working poor.

Less loss of life through natural disasters, conflict or disease.

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The Demographic Timebomb• In 2009, the global number of older

people passed 700 million. This is projected to be 2 billion by 2050. Already two-thirds live in low & middle income countries

• In the “more developed” regions over 20% of the population is 60+. By 2050, nearly 33% of the population is projected to be in that age grou

• In the “less developed” regions, older people account today for 8% of the population; by 2050 they are expected to account for over 20%

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FEWER, GREYER, OLDER – THIS IS THE FUTURE OF EUROPE

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Athough the EU’s population will continue to rise it will reach its peak around 2050.

In some countries such as Germany, Spain and Poland, the shrinking has already begun.

This is shown starkly by the age dependency ratio. Today, there are around four working-age people for every pensioner aged 65 or older, by 2060, there will be only two workers to support every senior.

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Source: European Commission

This is more bad news for policy-makers and those who dream of a prosperous European future. Two key things come from this trend: higher costs and lower tax receipts. There will be a significant increase in costs for public health systems and care. Germany is the worst affected by this, facing an extra bill of 5% of its GDP. What about the implications for Wales, and the rest of the UK?With austerity about to enter a new phase, and economic growth hard to sustain, this issue could become a major economic drag that politicians have yet to address.

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• The 21st century is the century of ageing – “The new millennium closes the first chapter in human history: when we were young”

(Paul Wallace: “Agequake”)• Life expectancy is extending

worldwide, fertility rates are falling, and ageing is accelerating. “The ageing of humanity across the world is a defining stage in history. It will change everything from business and finance to society and culture”

(Wallace)http://www.geographylwc.org.uk/GCSE/igcse/population/agepop.html

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wM0YO1uSZ_8

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Forecast for Dependency Ratios in Different Countries

Source: Dept for Work and Pensions

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The Demographic Timebomb Crippling Japan's Economy Demographics will increasingly

pile pressure on Japan’s already sluggish growth problems.

Years of improved health have produced the longest-lived people on the planet, while decades of very low birth-rates have brought dwindling young people into the workforce.

By 2030 Japan will have less than two people of working age for each retiree. Less than two workers will have to produce and pay taxes for themselves, their dependants and half a retiree. The implications are frightening!

The current retirement age is 60. This, once the most dynamic country on earth faces some hard choices.

16 | HelpAge International | Presentation title | Author’s name | November 17, 2008

Asia has the largest, fastest growing older population

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Oceania Nthamerica

Sthamerica

Africa Europe Asia

195019902025

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DEFINITIONThis is a potential crisis situation that is most pressing in developed countries, Japan and Germany being at the forefront. Its characteristics show an increasing number of older people dependent on pension schemes due to demographic shortfalls.

As the dependency ratio rises, the income of the working population ( made-up of a falling number of younger people) comes under greater pressure to provide taxes for the non-working (older and growing) segment.

In this scenario, pension schemes based on the contributions of the working population start to run out of money and may have to be replaced by schemes based on higher taxes – potentially politically explosive. You could be working way beyond current retirement ages to pay for this!!!!

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LEARNING TROUBLE SPOT – What does the term ‘demographic timebomb’ mean?

Is this cartoon being somewhat pessimistic? If so, why?

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Britain faces fiscal crunch from demographic timebombOffice for Budget Responsibility (OBR) casts doubt over George Osborne's plans to run a budget surplus in times of economic growth

a growing pensions and long-term care bill means the government will need start borrowing to plug the gap between revenues and spending from 2023-24, even if the economy grows at a steady pace of around 2.4pc a year Photo: Alamy

Source: ‘The Telegraph’ 21st September 2015

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Monday 21 September 2015China may scrap one-child policy to curb demographic time bomb

The country is dealing with an ageing population and a dwindling labour force

Source: ‘The Independent’

A woman cycles pass a billboard encouraging couples to have only one child (Image: Getty)

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/china-may-scrap-onechild-policy-to-curb-demographic-time-bomb-10409215.html

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Some issues:1) Increased strain on healthcare

services/systems2) Pensions crisis as numbers of those in

work decline3) Retirement age – longer working4) Shrinking tax base5) Economic growth and productivity6) Skills shortages in key sectors of the

economy7) Migration8) Taxation levels9) Permanent austerity10) Transport – is it fit for purpose?11) Spending patterns will change

Discuss the impact of these, and, any other factors. Present your finding to the rest of the group/class.

CRITICAL THINKINGACTIVITY

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Advantages and Disadvantages of an Ageing Society

Potential Advantages Potential Disadvantages

The elderly may have skills (including social skills) and training, that they are sometimes preferred over younger workers.

There are inadequate nursing facilities as older people are more susceptible to illness.

The elderly may look after their grandchildren and therefore allow both parents to work for example in Japan and S Africa.

There is a depletion of the labour force as older people retire, possibly compounded by the migration of industry overseas in search of larger and cheaper workforces.

In many MEDC’s the elderly are viewed as an important markets – the ‘grey economy.’ Many firms, ranging from holiday companies to healthcare providers, specifically target this market.

The high cost of funding pensions and healthcare means the tax burden falls on fewer and younger workers.

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What Choices Do the Government Have?1.With prospect of higher spending and relatively lower tax receipts, the government may have to consider some politically unpopular policies.Raise retirement age to reflect longer life spans. In 1950, average life expectancy was 75. It is now 86. But a higher retirement age will not be welcomed by people who have been planning and expecting to retire at 65. Governments may delay implementation of higher pension age for several years.2.Higher tax rates. Increasing income tax to pay for an ageing population hardly inspires. The argument is higher tax rates will reduce productivity and deter people working. The impact of higher taxes on labour productivity is less than many claim, but, it would still be an unwelcome development3.Cut spending. Making people pay for private health care and private nursing homes is one solution. But, it would inevitably require an extensive and unpopular means tested scheme to decide who can't afford. It won't please children seeing a fall in their inheritance levels.4.Immigration. Immigration of young workers will be one of the easiest solutions to the demographic time bomb. But, immigration may prove to be too controversial.

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Experts defuse demographic timebomb of ageing UK

BUT IS IT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM?The BMA argues that the impact of an ageing population has been exaggerated and the number of dependent people in the UK is actually falling.In recent years, politicians have issued stark warnings about the effect increasing life expectancy will have on public services such as the NHS and welfare system, often to justify austerity measures.

Read more: http://www.scotsman.com/news/health/experts-defuse-demographic-timebomb-of-ageing-uk-1-3186005#ixzz3mN7TnIuF

http://www.scotsman.com/news/health/experts-defuse-demographic-timebomb-of-ageing-uk-1-3186005

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Skills Knowledge: Critical Thinking

Term Definition How confident do I feel in understanding and using this term?

Very confident Somewhat confident

Not very confident

Evidence Credibility Corroboration Neutral interest

I have learnt how to: How confident do I feel in doing this?Very

confidentSomewhat confident

Not very confident

Use credibility criteria      Weigh up circumstantial evidence      Investigate vested interest      Identify sources of bias, prejudice, bias and propaganda      Determine credibility of expertise      Evaluate reputation      

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Critical Thinking: Putting Forward a Reasoned Point of View/Argument

Term Definition How confident do I feel in understanding and using this term?

Very confident Somewhat confident

Not very confident

Argument Conclusion Reason Assumption

I have learnt how to: How confident do I feel in doing this?Very

confidentSomewhat confident

Not very confident

Present arguments symbolically      Use different patterns of reasoning (simple, side by side, joint and chain)

     

Understand how to challenge arguments      Identify reason indicators      Identify conclusion indicators      Identify flaws in arguments      

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Skills KnowledgeProblem Solving

Term Definition How confident do I feel in understanding and using this term?

Very confident

Somewhat confident

Not very confident

Problem        Systematic methods

       

Trial and error        

Key terms:

I have learnt how to: How confident do I feel in doing this?Very

confidentSomewhat confident

Not very confident

Understand and apply the process of problem solving (IDEAL)      Interpret information presented in different formats      Access reliable and credible information using the internet      Be able to check if a problem has been solved