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MASTER PLAN UPDATE | Nashville International Airport

FORECASTS OF AVIATION DEMAND | 2‐1

2 ForecastsofAviationDemand

Projecting future aviation activity at an airport is one of the most important and vital steps in

the Master Planning process. All Master Plan recommendations for facility needs, both airside

and landside, will, in one form or another, be directly impacted by the projected aviation

activity levels presented in this chapter. In order to develop the most realistic forecasts

possible, a solid understanding of current and historic Airport operations, industry trends, and

socio‐economic conditions within the Airport’s primary catchment area (i.e., market) is vital.

These variables must be detailed and factored into individual forecast scenarios that will

comprise the Master Plan forecast.

The set of aviation demand forecasts in this Master Plan use multiple FAA‐approved

methodologies and growth scenarios to predict future levels of aviation activity at the Airport.

Each individual scenario is then evaluated for its applicability to the Airport, representation of

actual and anticipated market conditions, and its relative resemblance to the FAA provided BNA

Terminal Area Forecast (TAF). From this effort, a recommended “preferred forecast” is

presented which will serve as the basis for conducting subsequent demand/capacity analysis

and identification of future facility requirements.

The assumptions, methodologies, and data used to create the forecast scenarios are presented

and analyzed in the following sections. The specific activity elements to be forecasted include:

Air Carrier Activity

o Operations

o Fleet Mix

o Enplaned Passengers

o Load Factors

Air Cargo Activity

o Operations

o Fleet Mix

General Aviation Activity

o Based Aircraft/Fleet Mix

o Operations



Military Aviation Activity

o Based Aircraft

o Operations

Peak Month Average Day/Peak Hour

o Enplaned Passengers

o Operations

Terminal Surface Transportation Activity

o Terminal Curb Vehicles

2.1 BaselineForecastData

To derive the annual operations, enplanements, and based aircraft forecasts required for this

Master Plan Update, it was first necessary to identify the forecast baseline on which future

activity levels are developed. Metropolitan Nashville Airport Authority (MNAA) data for

Calendar Year 2011 will serve as the baseline, or base year, for the 20‐year forecast. Aircraft

operations by activity type (passenger carrier, air cargo, general aviation [GA], and military),

passenger enplanements, fleet mix, and based aircraft counts are established and confirmed

from several reliable sources in order to ensure a solid foundation on which the forecasts will

be built. The MNAA data and the 2010 FAA TAF for BNA are used as the starting point for this

data‐gathering effort. In addition to the MNAA data and the TAF, the following sources are used

to verify and provide additional clarity to the 2010‐2011 baseline data:

BNA Noise Exposure Map (NEM) Forecast, 2011‐2016

FAA Air Traffic Activity System (ATADS)

FAA Enhanced Traffic Management System Counts (ETMSC)

BNA Carrier Schedules

FAA Form 5010 Data (Airport Master Record)

The NEM forecasts prepared in 2010 provide detailed operations and fleet mix forecasts

through 2016. The operations and fleet assumptions used in the NEM forecast will be applied to

this forecast, with particular overlap in the commercial carrier fleet mix and load factor

projections. However, the base data for Airport operations, socioeconomic trends, and forecast

factors in the NEM forecast use a 2009 baseline year. Though assumptions are applicable to

both forecasts, and anticipated airline industry trends have not changed significantly since the

NEM forecast was completed, updated base year data is used in the Master Plan Update

forecasts. Updated baseline data includes 2011 operations, enplanements, and based aircraft,



2011 FAA forecast factors, and updated socioeconomic data provided by Woods & Poole

Economics. For this reason, the NEM forecasts through 2016 will not exactly match those in the

Master Plan forecast.

The TAF for BNA will serve as the forecast of future aviation activity against which all

subsequent forecasts presented in this chapter will be compared. The TAF is prepared by the

FAA and includes historical and forecast data for passenger enplanements, Airport operations,

TRACON operations, and based aircraft, and as such serves as the benchmark against which the

FAA compares all airport activity forecasts. It is important to note that the 2010 forecasts are

the most recent available. The 2010 forecasts cover the years 2010‐2030 and projects activity

for the four major users of the air traffic system; air carriers, air taxi and commuters, GA, and

military, as well as annual enplanements and based aircraft.

Table 2‐1 provides a summary of the 2010 BNA TAF, showing historic data from 2000 to 2010

and projected data from 2011 through 2030. Note that in this summary table, local and

itinerant operations for GA and military are combined; in the full TAF tables, each is presented

independently. Also within the TAF, the “Air Taxi & Commuter” category includes scheduled air

carrier operations provided by commuter airlines, as well as unscheduled GA charter

operations. To accurately gauge commercial operations in comparison to GA operations when

examining TAF data, it is necessary to split GA air taxi operations from the commercial air

carrier operations. This was accomplished by calculating the scheduled commercial air carrier

commuter operations based on MNAA‐reported commercial carrier operations and

reclassifying those operations as commercial. This exercise is discussed in greater detail, and

the adjusted TAF presented, in the commercial carrier forecast section of this document.



Table 2‐1 – 2010 BNA Terminal Area Forecast

Year Enplanements Air Carrier Operations

Air Taxi & Commuter Operations

GA Operations

Military Operations

Total Operations

Based Aircraft

Historic

2000 4,471,162 129,455 36,756 78,520 4,414 249,145 172

2001 4,359,287 130,262 41,301 65,522 4,195 241,280 185

2002 3,979,509 118,936 50,242 60,293 3,921 233,392 191

2003 3,953,056 120,899 47,501 56,301 3,092 227,793 193

2004 4,219,890 114,631 58,661 57,905 4,095 235,292 153

2005 4,479,213 108,594 68,309 50,461 3,863 231,227 146

2006 4,700,818 98,014 66,829 44,109 3,332 212,284 143

2007 4,920,702 101,580 66,637 42,617 3,132 213,966 143

2008 4,725,071 98,804 60,243 36,440 3,305 198,792 119

2009 4,381,508 89,848 53,358 27,916 3,985 175,107 112

2010 4,446,988 84,541 58,596 27,481 3,948 174,566 114

Projected

2011 4,602,897 89,892 53,629 25,440 3,948 172,909 117

2012 4,752,085 91,150 54,969 25,998 3,948 176,065 119

2013 4,906,752 92,426 56,343 26,567 3,948 179,284 123

2014 5,067,125 93,720 57,751 27,149 3,948 182,568 125

2015 5,233,443 95,032 59,195 27,744 3,948 185,919 127

2016 5,405,952 96,363 60,675 28,352 3,948 189,338 130

2017 5,584,908 97,713 62,192 28,973 3,948 192,826 133

2018 5,770,586 99,081 63,747 29,608 3,948 196,384 136

2019 5,963,268 100,468 65,341 30,256 3,948 200,013 138

2020 6,163,250 101,874 66,974 30,919 3,948 203,715 141

2021 6,370,845 103,300 68,648 31,596 3,948 207,492 145

2022 6,586,376 104,747 70,364 32,288 3,948 211,347 148

2023 6,810,184 106,214 72,123 32,995 3,948 215,280 151

2024 7,042,620 107,701 73,926 33,718 3,948 219,293 154

2025 7,284,062 109,209 75,774 34,457 3,948 223,388 157

2026 7,534,897 110,738 77,668 35,211 3,948 227,565 160

2027 7,795,535 112,289 79,610 35,982 3,948 231,829 163

2028 8,066,399 113,861 81,600 36,770 3,948 236,179 166

2029 8,347,936 115,455 83,640 37,575 3,948 240,618 169

2030 8,640,618 117,071 85,731 38,397 3,948 245,147 172

2031* 8,931,826 118,710 87,874 39,238 3,948 249,770 176

*Estimate based in 2011‐2030 AAGR. Source: FAA TAF.



2.1.1 BaselineOperations

Table 2‐2 details the MNAA‐reported 2011 baseline operations data that will serve as the

foundation for the operations forecasts. The operations data is presented by category,

(passenger carrier, air cargo, general aviation, and military) in order to correspond with the

individual forecasts that were developed for each activity type.

Table 2‐2 – 2011 Baseline Operations

Aircraft Category Operations Percent of Total

Passenger Carrier 123,972 70.8%

Cargo Carrier 2,640 1.6%

General Aviation 44,804 25.6%

Military 3,578 2.0%

Total 174,994 100%

Source: MNAA, 2012.

In comparison to both TAF reported operations and ATADS operations, the 2011 MNAA

baseline operations totals are nearly identical (within 500 operations). The totals are as follows:

MNAA Baseline Operations: 174,994

TAF Reported Operations: 174,556

ATADS Reported Operations: 174,622

2.1.2 BaselineEnplanements

The simple definition of an enplanement is a revenue‐paying passenger boarding an aircraft at a

given airport. In addition to being an important trend tracking tool for airport management and

a key driver of future airport needs, an airport’s reported annual enplanements is also used by

the FAA to calculate AIP passenger entitlement funding through its apportionment formula. For

the purposes of a Master Plan, forecasted enplanements will serve as the basis for numerous

facility requirements, as well as financial projections. These include:

Check‐in positions Terminal lobby and circulation areas

Concessions Baggage claim, sort, and make‐up area

Security – passenger screening and baggage screening Aircraft gates and hold room size/seating

Surface transportation – terminal access and parking

PFC revenue projections



Table 2‐3 presents the historic five‐year monthly BNA enplanements from 2007 through 2011.

The 2011 enplanement figure of 4,806,092 passengers will be used as the baseline for

subsequent forecasts.

Table 2‐3 – Historic BNA Enplanements by Month Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

January 353,693 346,332 302,510 314,417 338,375

February 342,528 351,727 295,740 296,572 313,423

March 424,995 415,692 374,657 375,893 411,686

April 407,680 405,083 371,842 373,612 397,492

May 460,371 442,692 402,494 394,387 452,284

June 468,447 444,645 427,324 424,451 449,005

July 457,623 437,475 436,164 434,190 437,850

August 420,572 385,286 376,724 383,918 400,428

September 378,651 342,672 355,753 370,553 391,426

October 430,157 407,614 407,496 424,035 436,385

November 400,487 348,954 360,321 374,529 393,242

December 386,669 364,394 371,546 375,484 384,496

Total 4,931,873 4,692,566 4,482,571 4,542,041 4,806,092

Source: MNAA, 2012.

The majority of BNA enplanements are origin and destination driven traffic with limited transfer

activity. This is mostly driven by Southwest Airlines connecting passengers.

Furthermore, at the beginning of the 2008‐2009 recession, BNA experienced a drop in

enplanements. Recent enplanements, however, have been steadily rebounding from that

reported in 2007.

2.1.3 BaselineBasedAircraft

General aviation aircraft based at the Airport will be forecast for the purposes of determining

GA facility needs, anticipated GA operations, as well as projected revenue derived from fuel

sales. Military aircraft based at the Airport are also counted in the based aircraft total, but are

not actively forecast in the same manner as GA aircraft. This reasoning is discussed in greater

detail in the GA and military forecast section of this document.

Table 2‐4 provides the breakdown of 2011 BNA based aircraft by category. Note that Jet and

Turbo‐prop aircraft account for over 50 percent of total based aircraft (inclusive of military

aircraft), and over 55 percent of based GA aircraft. This number is a much higher percentage

than is seen at typical GA airports and is indicative of a high level of corporate, business, and air

taxi activity at BNA.



Table 2‐4 – 2011 Based Aircraft

Aircraft Category Aircraft Count

Percent of Total

Single Engine 18 16.2%

Multi‐Engine Piston 25 22.5%

Turbo‐Prop 15 13.5%

Jet 41 36.9%

Rotorcraft 2 1.8%

Military 10 9.0%

Total 111 100%

Source: MNAA, 2012.

2.1.4 AppliedForecastFactors

As with the baseline operations data, the forecast factors (i.e., the annual growth rates to be

applied to baseline activity), are collected from multiple sources and adjusted as necessary

based on specific Airport, market, and industry conditions. The following are the primary

sources of the growth factors used in this forecast:

FAA Terminal Area Forecast

FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years 2011‐2031 Boeing Current Market Outlook 2011‐2030

Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2010‐2011

Woods & Poole Economics, Inc.

The following provides a brief overview of each source of the forecast factors and how they will

be applied to the aviation activity forecasts:

As discussed previously, the BNA TAF activity estimates are derived by the FAA from

national estimates of aviation activity. These estimates are then assigned to individual

airports based upon multiple market and forecast factors. The FAA looks at local and

national economic conditions, as well as trends within the aviation industry, to develop

each forecast.

The National TAF is a cumulative total of all U.S. airports and provides the anticipated

national growth in enplanements, operations, and GA aircraft. The national growth rates

and forecasts will differ from the Airport‐specific BNA TAF forecast since the BNA TAF is,

as is each individual airport’s TAF, based on assumptions of local growth and market

demand.



The FAA Aerospace Forecast, Fiscal Years (FY) 2011‐2031 provides an overview of aviation

industry trends and expected growth for the commercial passenger carrier, cargo carrier,

and GA activity segments. National growth rates in enplanements, operations, fleet

growth and fleet mix for commercial fleets and the GA fleet are provided over a 20‐year

forecast horizon. For the purposes of this forecast, the FAA Aerospace Forecasts will be

used as the basis for determining the growth of the BNA GA fleet and its composition by

aircraft type (i.e., GA fleet mix), as well as cargo operations growth.

The Boeing Current Market Outlook 2011‐2030 provides insight into future commercial

carrier fleet growth and anticipated fleet mix of both domestic and foreign airlines. These

insights will be used to assist in developing and confirming the validity of future BNA

commercial carrier fleet mix assumptions.

The biennial Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast 2010‐2011 provides anticipated growth

factors in the domestic air cargo market, as well as growth factors for international trade

lanes (e.g., U.S.‐Asia Pacific traffic). These factors will be used to gauge potential air cargo

growth at the Airport.

Woods & Poole Economics, Inc. provides historic and projected socioeconomic data used

to verify and modify, as necessary, the FAA factors based on local market conditions in the

Nashville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). Woods & Poole Economics specializes in

developing long‐term economic and demographic projections on a county, MSA, state,

and national basis.

As a basis for defining the economic health and growth potential of BNA’s catchment area, an

analysis of the socioeconomic conditions expected to be prevalent in the Nashville MSA is

necessary. To this end, the Woods & Poole Economics provided socioeconomic factors for the

MSA, State, and nation are presented in the following section.

2.2 SocioeconomicTrendsAffectingAviationDemand

There are multiple variables and factors that can affect the aviation activity of a particular

airport. Commercial service airports are typically influenced by national and regional trends in

population, per capita income, employment, tourism, airport prominence, and air service

options. Airports that offer superior facilities, more services, greater airline and route choices,

and competitive costs will generally attract greater passenger levels and activity. The route

structure and number of airlines serving an airport has a strong influence on the demand at a

commercial service facility, with passengers attracted to airports offering multiple scheduled

flights to numerous destinations. Finally, the airport’s prominence (location and size of its



catchment area in relation to competing airports) has the potential to drive the aviation

demand of an airport.

However, on a macro scale, the factors that have the greatest impact on the growth prospects

of an airport are its catchment area’s socioeconomic characteristics; population, income, and

employment. Catchment area population growth, or decline, has the potential to directly

influence an airport’s aviation demand. Per capita income is deemed a strong indicator of a

community’s discretionary income and ability to afford travel. Employment levels, coupled with

per capita income, are indicators of the overall strength of an area’s economy.

The ultimate determinants of the future number of passengers and operations at a commercial

service airport are the catchment area’s population profile and economic characteristics,

coupled with the continued availability of air service at comparable levels and cost through the

forecast period. Consequently, a clear understanding of local demographic trends and

economic forces is important for developing an accurate aviation activity forecast. For planning

purposes, the socioeconomic conditions in the Nashville MSA will serve as a proxy for the BNA

primary catchment area. As detailed in the Inventory chapter, the Nashville MSA consists of the

following 13 counties:

Cannon County

Cheatham County

Davidson County

Dickson County

Hickman County

Macon County

Robertson County

Rutherford County

Smith County

Sumner County

Trousdale County

Williamson County

Wilson County

Though the MSA forms the primary Airport catchment area that is used to define the

socioeconomic and growth conditions for BNA, a secondary catchment area extends beyond

the core MSA counties. This secondary catchment area includes areas in southern Kentucky,

Tennessee counties to the south and extending into northern Alabama, as well as areas to the

west between BNA and Memphis and to the east between BNA and Knoxville.



2.2.1 Population

The historic and projected populations and corresponding average annual growth rates (AAGR)

for the Nashville MSA, the State of Tennessee, and the United States for years 2000 through

2010 (historic) and 2011 through 2031 (projected) are shown in Table 2‐5. For the years 2000

through 2010, the population for the Nashville MSA, the State of Tennessee, and the United

States, had an average annual growth rate of approximately 2.0 percent, 1.1 percent, and 0.9

percent, respectively. These trends show that Nashville MSA population growth has far

outpaced the total U.S. population.

Table 2‐5 – Population Trend Comparison (000)

Year Nashville MSA AAGR Tennessee AAGR

United States AAGR

2000 1,317.6 ‐ 5,703 ‐ 282,172 ‐

2005 1,450.5 1.9% 5,996 1.0% 295,753 0.9%

2010 1,613.3 2.1% 6,368 1.2% 310,009 0.9%

AAGR 2000‐2010

2.0%

1.1%

0.9%

2011 1,644.2 1.9% 6,439 1.1% 313,010 1.0%

2016 1,801.4 2.2% 6,805 1.3% 328,488 1.2%

2021 1,961.3 1.7% 7,181 1.1% 344,480 1.0%

2026 2,122.9 1.6% 7,564 1.0% 360,765 0.9%

2031 2,284.8 1.5% 7,947 1.0% 377,087 0.9%

AAGR 2010‐2031

1.7%

1.1%

0.9%

Note: AAGR ‐ Average Annual Growth Rate. Source: Woods & Poole Economics.

For the forecast period years, 2011 through 2031, the population of the Nashville MSA, the

State of Tennessee, and the United States are projected to grow at an AAGR of approximately

1.7 percent, 1.1 percent, and 0.9 percent, respectively. This continues the historic trend of

Nashville MSA population growth outpacing the State of Tennessee and the United States as a

whole. Strong population growth in the BNA market (i.e., the Nashville MSA), should be

considered as a significant driver of growth at the Airport, both historically and into the future.

Figure 2‐1 illustrates the historic and projected growth rates of the respective population

groups.



Figure 2‐1 – Historic and Projected Population Growth Rates

Source: Woods & Poole Economics.

2.2.2 PerCapitaPersonalIncome

The historic and projected per capita income for the Nashville MSA, the State of Tennessee, and

the United States are shown in Table 2‐6. The 2010 per capita income for the MSA was

$37,954, which is $1,109 below the U.S. average and $3,932 above the Tennessee average. The

average annual growth rate in per capita income from 2000‐2010 for the Nashville MSA,

Tennessee, and United States was approximately 1.8 percent, 2.5 percent, and 2.6 percent

respectively. These trends show that the income growth of the Nashville MSA was slower than

the State and nation as a whole, yet the Nashville MSA is still near parity with the national

average and stronger than the State average.

For the years 2011‐2031, the per capita income for the Nashville MSA, Tennessee, and the

United States are projected to grow annually at an equal AAGR of 4.9 percent. These trends

show that the projected income growth for the Nashville MSA is comparable to the national

and State levels, and will remain at near parity with national levels. Figure 2‐2 illustrates the

historic and projected per capita income for each region.



Table 2‐6 – Per Capita Income Trend

Year Nashville MSA ($) AAGR

Tennessee ($) AAGR

United States ($) AAGR

2000 31,662 ‐ 26,691 ‐ 30,318 ‐

2005 36,052 2.6% 31,294 3.2% 35,424 3.2%

2010 37,954 1.0% 34,022 1.7% 39,063 2.0%

AAGR 2000‐2010

1.8%

2.5%

2.6%

2011 39,478 4.0% 35,441 4.2% 40,668 4.1%

2016 49,163 5.3% 44,191 5.4% 50,520 5.3%

2021 62,181 4.8% 55,911 4.8% 63,695 4.7%

2026 79,749 5.1% 71,712 5.1% 81,455 5.0%

2031 102,982 5.2% 92,583 5.2% 104,910 5.2%

AAGR 2010‐2031

4.9%

4.9%

4.9%

Note: AAGR ‐ Average Annual Growth Rate. Source: 2012 Woods & Poole Economics.

Figure 2‐2 – Historic and Projected Per Capita Income




2.2.3 TotalEmployment

The historic and projected number of persons employed and percent of population group

employed (i.e., persons employed divided by total population) for the Nashville MSA,

Tennessee, and the United States for years 2000 to 2010 (historic) and 2011 through 2031

(projected) are shown in Table 2‐7. From 2000 through 2010, the employment levels for the

Nashville MSA were above that of the State and the nation. The rate at which employment

grew also outpaced the State and the nation; employment for the MSA grew 0.8 percent

annually, while the State and United States grew at an AAGR of 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent,

respectively.

Through the forecast period, employment growth in the Nashville MSA is expected to outpace

the State and the nation. Though the gap is expected to narrow by the end of the forecast

period, Nashville will maintain an edge in the share of its population that is actively employed.

Figure 2‐3 illustrates the historic and projected percent of each population group that is

employed.

Table 2‐7 – Employment Levels

Year Nashville MSA (000)

Percent Employed

Tennessee (000)

Percent Employed

United States (000)

Percent Employed

2000 913.0 69.3% 3,471 60.9% 165,371 58.6%

2005 977.9 67.4% 3,597 60.0% 172,551 58.3%

2010 986.0 61.1% 3,557 55.9% 174,063 56.1%

AAGR 2000‐2010

0.8%

0.2%

0.5%

2011 1,015.1 61.7% 3,653 56.7% 178,646 57.1%

2016 1,095.7 60.8% 3,891 57.2% 189,138 57.6%

2021 1,182.8 60.3% 4,142 57.7% 200,138 58.1%

2026 1,276.9 60.2% 4,408 58.3% 211,663 58.7%

2031 1,378.7 60.3% 4,690 59.0% 223,728 59.3%

AAGR 2010‐2031

1.5%

1.3%

1.1%

Note: AAGR ‐ Average Annual Growth Rate. Source: 2012 Woods & Poole Economics.



Figure 2‐3 – Percent of Population Employed


2.2.4 SocioeconomicConditionsSummary

Socioeconomic data shows the Nashville MSA to be a rapidly growing, relatively affluent market

area. Key indicators of future Airport use, population growth, and income, all score well for

BNA, outpacing both the State and the U.S. in population growth maintaining a 10.4 percent

advantage in per capita income compared to the State average, and keeping pace with the

national income average. Employment levels in the MSA also outpace both the State and the

nation, again adding to the relative economic strength of the Airport’s market area.

Consideration and inclusion of these metrics in the aviation activity forecast requires an

analysis of the socioeconomic growth factors discussed above to insure that the anticipated

growth in BNA’s market area is accurately reflected in the Airport’s TAF rates.

Due to the Nashville MSA’s higher projected population growth, strong employment profile,

and competitive per capita income (both historic and projected), it is likely that BNA will

experience growth above the national average.



2.3 ForecastofCommercialPassengerActivity

To determine the types and size of facilities necessary to properly accommodate present and

future airline activity, annual enplaned passengers and annual aircraft operations must be

forecast. Of these, the number of annual enplaned passengers is the most basic indicator of

demand for commercial service activity. It is the number of forecast enplanements that will

drive passenger terminal requirements, and to a lesser extent, commercial carrier operations

and fleet mix. Commercial aircraft operations will dictate the requirements for passenger

terminal and airside infrastructure.

In order to gauge future levels of operations and enplanements, multiple FAA‐approved

forecast methodologies and statistical analysis are presented in order to provide a base range

of passenger activity levels.

From these forecasts, a preferred forecast will be selected on which additional air service

scenario forecasts will be presented. These scenarios will examine the potential changes in

Southwest Airlines’ activity due to their recent merger with AirTran. Additionally, increased

charter service and international activity levels will be examined. As with all forecasts presented

in this chapter, each commercial service forecast will be presented with the BNA TAF for

comparison purposes.

2.3.1 CommercialCarrierTAF

As previously discussed, there are two types of commercial service aircraft operations

addressed in the TAF; “Air Carrier” operations and “Air Taxi and Commuter” operations. For the

purposes of the commercial carrier forecasts presented in this document, the two categories

are combined into a single category of “commercial carrier operations.” However, within the

TAF, Air Taxi and Commuter operations counts include both air carrier regional jet operations

and GA charter operations.

In order to accurately gauge true commercial air carrier operations when comparing forecast

scenarios to the BNA TAF, it becomes necessary to split the commercial carrier operations from

the GA charter operations. This is accomplished by calculating the total commercial carrier

operations based on 2011 MNAA‐provided data and subtracting that total from the combined

Air Carrier Operations and Air Taxi and Commuter Operations in the TAF. Through this exercise,

commercial carrier operations can be quantified, with the remainder of the non‐airline air taxi

operations moved to the GA operations totals. The revised air carrier operations total is then

grown annually at a rate equal to that of the base BNA TAF to provide an estimate of the

forecast commercial carrier operations at BNA. Table 2‐8 shows the BNA TAF with the revised

air carrier numbers.



Table 2‐8 – BNA TAF with Revised Commercial Carrier Operations

Year TAF

Enplanements Air Carrier Operations

Commuter Carrier

Operations* Total Carrier Operations

2011 4,602,897 89,892 34,080 123,972

2012 4,752,085 91,150 35,695 126,845

2013 4,906,752 92,426 36,720 129,146

2014 5,067,125 93,720 37,771 131,491

2015 5,233,443 95,032 38,852 133,884

2016 5,405,952 96,363 39,961 136,324

2017 5,584,908 97,713 41,100 138,813

2018 5,770,586 99,081 42,269 141,350

2019 5,963,268 100,468 43,470 143,938

2020 6,163,250 101,874 44,702 146,576

2021 6,370,845 103,300 45,967 149,267

2022 6,586,376 104,747 47,266 152,013

2023 6,810,184 106,214 48,600 154,814

2024 7,042,620 107,701 49,969 157,670

2025 7,284,062 109,209 51,374 160,583

2026 7,534,897 110,738 52,816 163,554

2027 7,795,535 112,289 54,298 166,587

2028 8,066,399 113,861 55,818 169,679

2029 8,347,936 115,455 57,379 172,834

2030 8,640,618 117,071 58,981 176,052

2031** 8,640,618 117,071 62,079 179,150

*Estimated FAA TAF air carrier operations based on MNAA 2011 actuals. **Estimate based on TAF AAGR. Source: FAA TAF, MNAA, RW Armstrong, 2012.

2.3.2 EnplanementForecasts

The following passenger enplanement forecast scenarios for BNA were evaluated and

compared to the FAA TAF. The results of these analyses are presented in Table 2‐9.

Historic Trend: A historic trend forecast is a simple time‐series model that relies on

extrapolating historic enplanements and operations growth, specific to the Airport, into the

future. Examining the historic growth rates and projecting them forward provides a picture of

growth should the market area and the state of the commercial passenger airline industry

reflect past trends through the forecast period. For the historic trend scenario, the historic data

is pulled directly from MNAA provided records and projected forward through the forecast

horizon.



Market Share: The market share forecast assumes that BNA will maintain its current 2011 level

of commercial enplanements and operations relative to current and forecast national activity

throughout the planning period. This methodology uses a reliable, larger aggregate forecast to

derive forecasts for the Airport based on the assumption of a constant future share. The FAA

produces a cumulative national TAF, inclusive of all U.S. airports, whose growth rates and

assumptions will constitute the aggregate forecast on which BNA growth will be predicated.

The market share forecast essentially applied nationally forecasted growth rates to the BNA

market, assuming that BNA retains its current ratio (i.e., market share) of national

enplanements through the forecast period.

Adjusted Market Share: While the market share forecast assumes that BNA will maintain its

current 2011 level of commercial enplanements and operations relative to the national forecast

activity throughout the planning period, the adjusted market share scenario was developed by

adjusting the growth factors of the previous scenario to account for the Nashville MSA’s above‐

average population growth compared to the projected growth of the U.S. as a whole.

Regression Analysis Forecasts: A regression‐based forecast examines aviation and passenger

activity through the prism of current and historic activity levels, and seeks to find a relationship

between the activity levels and the socioeconomic conditions prevalent during that time

period. Casual relationships between population, employment, and income are examined to

determine if there is a statistically valid relationship that may assist in projecting future activity.

The first step is to conduct a regression analysis that will determine if there is a relationship

between any of the socioeconomic factors addressed earlier in the chapter (i.e., population,

employment, and income) and the historic level of enplanements. The output of a regression

analysis is the “coefficient of determination”, or R2, which ranges from 0 to 1.0. If the R2 of an

analysis is a 0.8 or higher, there is a statistical correlation. In other words, the higher the R2

value, the stronger the correlation between the two variables. The following single‐ and

multiple‐regression analyses were performed to forecast passenger activity throughout the

planning period:

Population‐based regression Income‐based regression

Population‐Employment‐based regression

Population‐Employment‐Income‐based regression



Population‐Based Econometric: The population‐based econometric forecast adjusts the market

share forecast to account for expected incremental growth driven by above‐average population

growth within BNA’s primary catchment area. The growth rate that accounts for incremental

growth in passenger activity was developed by adjusting the BNA TAF AAGR based on MSA

population growth projections relative to national growth projections. This exercise yielded an

adjusted enplanement AAGR of 3.6 percent; a rate slightly above the TAF‐predicted 3.4 percent

AAGR (compared to an AAGR of 2.8 percent at the national level, as predicted by the TAF). It is

important to note that the population growth rate for the Nashville MSA is nearly double the

national average (1.7 percent compared to 0.9 percent).

Although the historic demographic analyses show a stronger correlation between BNA

passenger enplanements and Nashville MSA employment, the regression forecast based on the

employment variable yields an enplanement projection that is nearly 18 percent below what is

predicted in the TAF at the end of the planning horizon. Population growth is typically a better

indicator of aviation activity than employment growth due to the fact that employment

generally lags population as a result of an aging population rapidly exiting the workforce. An

additional consideration is that the historic period contains the years 2008 and 2009 in which

the U.S. experienced a severe economic slowdown. During this time, unemployment increased

and demand for air travel decreased, as is evidenced by the sharp drop in enplanements and air

carrier operations at BNA. The recession can be viewed as an anomaly that has broken an

upward trend in enplanements; a trend that will eventually return to its trajectory as the

economic recovery strengthens. If the period prior to the 2008‐2009 recession is evaluated

(2003 to 2007), the regression analyses yield a population correlation that is stronger than the

employment correlation (R2 result of 0.996 compared to 0.988).



Table 2‐9 – Enplanement Forecast

TAF*

2011*

4,602,897

4,806,092

2012

4,752,085

4,815,500

2013

4,906,752

4,918,900

2014

5,067,125

5,024,000

2015

5,233,443

5,130,900

2016

5,405,952

5,239,500

2017

5,584,908

5,350,000

2018

5,770,586

5,462,500

2019

5,963,268

5,576,800

2020

6,163,250

5,693,200

2021

6,370,845

5,811,500

2022

6,586,376

5,931,800

2023

6,810,184

6,054,200

2024

7,042,620

6,178,600

2025

7,284,062

6,305,300

2026

7,534,897

6,434,100

2027

7,795,535

6,565,100

2028

8,066,399

6,698,400

2029

8,347,936

6,833,900

2030

8,640,618

6,971,800

2031

8,931,826

7,112,100

2011‐2031

Growth

94%

48%

101%

80%

90%

83%

74%

83%

58%

9,346,700

7,610,300

8,373,600

8,782,300

9,129,800

8,807,400

8,633,200

9,658,600

7,437,400

8,148,600

8,516,700

8,908,500

8,577,900

8,412,600

8,750,200

7,268,400

7,929,600

8,263,400

8,687,500

8,350,700

8,194,500

9,043,700

7,103,300

7,717,200

8,017,700

8,466,500

8,126,300

7,979,100

8,190,000

6,941,900

7,511,100

7,779,300

8,245,400

7,904,200

7,766,000

8,465,700

6,784,200

7,311,200

7,548,000

8,025,000

7,684,900

7,555,700

7,663,900

6,630,100

7,117,200

7,323,600

7,804,700

7,468,000

7,347,800

7,922,800

6,479,500

6,929,000

7,105,900

7,585,100

7,253,800

7,142,400

7,166,800

6,332,300

6,745,400

6,893,500

7,366,300

7,042,100

6,939,700

7,411,800

6,188,400

6,566,700

6,686,700

7,147,800

6,833,000

6,739,500

6,699,000

6,047,800

6,393,200

6,486,000

6,930,000

6,626,500

6,541,800

6,929,300

5,910,400

6,224,800

6,291,200

6,712,700

6,422,400

6,346,500

6,254,300

5,776,100

6,059,200

6,099,600

6,496,200

6,220,800

6,153,600

6,473,400

5,644,900

5,898,200

5,913,400

6,280,500

6,021,700

5,963,300

5,835,700

5,516,600

5,741,800

5,732,500

6,065,500

5,825,200

5,775,400

6,041,800

5,391,300

5,589,900

5,556,800

5,851,700

5,630,800

5,589,700

5,422,300

5,268,800

5,442,300

5,386,000

5,638,900

5,439,200

5,406,600

5,635,600

5,149,100

5,280,200

5,198,500

5,427,400

5,250,000

5,225,900

5,007,500

5,032,100

5,114,900

5,007,300

5,215,600

5,063,400

5,047,800

5,207,600

4,917,800

4,962,100

4,830,500

5,038,700

4,880,300

4,872,900

Population‐

Employm

ent

Regression

Population‐

Employm

ent‐

Income

Regression

Population

Based

Econometric

4,806,092

4,806,092

4,806,092

4,806,092

4,806,092

4,806,092

4,806,092

Year

Historic

Trend

Market Share

Adjusted

Market

Share

Population

Based

Regression

Income

Based

Regression

*Figures not rounded

.

Source: M

NAA, FAA TAF, W

oods & Poole Economics, RW Arm

strong, 2012.



2.3.3 RecommendedCommercialAirCarrierForecast

It is highly likely that BNA enplanements will grow at a rate higher than the national average,

which is acknowledged in the FAA TAF. Commercial carrier operations growth will also likely

outpace the national average, despite the gradual shift to larger aircraft. As detailed in the

socioeconomic section of this chapter, the population and economic profile of the Nashville

MSA shows the Airport’s catchment area to be a rapidly growing and relatively affluent market.

Key indicators of future Airport use (population growth and income) score well for the MSA,

and employment levels are expected to remain high.

For planning purposes, it is recommended that the population‐based econometric forecast be

used as the preferred commercial passenger service forecast in the Master Plan Update. This

forecast uses the FAA provided growth rates for enplanements and operations, which are

modestly adjusted to reflect the socioeconomic conditions in the primary catchment area. The

assumptions used in this forecast methodology are based upon projected trends in market area

population and reinforced by strong income and employment indicators.

The econometric forecast also reflects anticipated future fleet mix considerations and

operational conditions of the airlines operating at BNA (i.e., anticipated shift to larger aircraft).

To calculate BNA commercial operations, a similar incremental growth approach is used in

predicting enplanement growth. Based on incremental population growth in the Airport’s

catchment area, the national operations growth rate, which is slightly below what is predicted

in the national TAF (1.8 percent AAGR compared to 1.9 percent AAGR, as shown in Table 2‐10),

is adjusted. This exercise yields a 2.4 percent AAGR in operations.

Table 2‐10 – Nashville and U.S. Projected AAGR

(Population, Enplanements, 2011‐2031)

Growth Category AAGR

2011‐2031

Nashville MSA Population 1.7%

BNA TAF Operations 1.8%

National Population 0.9%

National TAF Operations 1.9%

Table 2‐11 provides the econometric forecast using the population adjusted FAA growth factors

applied to the MNAA 2011 baseline enplanements and operations. As detailed in the table,



enplanements are expected to double during the forecast period, while operations will increase

by nearly 60 percent over the forecast period.

Table 2‐11 – Econometric Forecast

Year Annual

Enplanements Annual Growth

Annual Operations

Annual Growth

2011 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 ‐

2016 5,835,700 3.6% 140,990 2.3%

2021 6,929,300 3.4% 158,020 2.3%

2026 8,190,000 3.4% 176,980 2.3%

2031 9,658,600 3.3% 198,270 2.3%

2011‐2031 Growth 101.0% 59.9%

Source: MNAA, FAA TAF, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Table 2‐12 compares the econometric forecast with the BNA TAF. By the end of the forecast

period, projected enplanements are expected to be 8.1 percent above what is predicted in the

TAF, while operations are projected to be 10.7 percent above what is predicted in the TAF.

Table 2‐12 – Econometric Forecast vs. TAF

Enplanements Operations

Year TAF Econometric Forecast

Forecast vs. TAF TAF*

Econometric Forecast

Forecast vs. TAF

2011 4,602,897 4,806,092 4.4% 123,972 123,972 ‐

2016 5,405,952 5,835,700 7.9% 136,324 140,990 3.4%

2021 6,370,845 6,929,300 8.8% 149,267 158,020 5.9%

2026 7,534,897 8,190,000 8.7% 163,554 176,980 8.2%

2031 8,932,412 9,658,600 8.1% 179,150 198,270 10.7%

AAGR 2011‐2031

3.4% 3.6% 1.9% 2.4%

*2011 enplanements based on BNA actuals. Source: FAA TAF, RW Armstrong, 2012.

The econometric forecast is believed to reflect the growth and economic conditions anticipated

for the Airport’s primary catchment area through the forecast period. This forecast scenario

captures the incremental population growth of the Nashville MSA, and directly quantifies the

growth’s impact in terms of projected enplanements and operations.



2.3.4 AlternateForecastScenarios

The following forecast scenarios predict the enplanement and operations impact of potential

air service developments at BNA. The impacts of air service increases are applied to the

econometric forecast, thus taking into account the natural growth of commercial carrier activity

based on catchment area growth, as well as scenario specific service increases.

2.3.4.1 Southwest‐AirTran Merger Traffic Gains

The Southwest‐AirTran merger has the potential to divert AirTran traffic to BNA as Southwest

winds down hub operations at Hartsfield‐Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL). Southwest

states that they will focus on large‐market point‐to‐point service with their ATL operations. This

will free current AirTran capacity to operate in other Southwest markets. Since BNA is a

Southwest focus airport, it is reasonable to assume that BNA will absorb anticipated excess ATL

capacity. AirTran currently operates 195 daily departures at ATL, many of which serve smaller

markets in support of their hub operations.

For forecasting purposes, it was assumed that BNA will gain one percent of AirTran ATL

operations as Southwest begins to “unwind” ATL hub operations. This is expected to begin in

2013; since the merger is not final, the airlines must continue to operate independently until

regulatory agencies grant them a joint certificate.1 It is estimated that 2014 and 2015 will also

see an additional one percent of AirTran ATL operations move to BNA as Southwest completes

the unwinding of ATL hub operations. Table 2‐13 shows the Southwest‐AirTran Merger growth

scenario.

Table 2‐14 compares the Southwest‐AirTran Merger forecast with the preferred forecast. By

the end of the forecast period, projected enplanements are expected to be 5.1 percent above

what is predicted in the preferred forecast, while operations are projected to be 2.2 percent

above what is predicted in the preferred forecast.

1 Bloomberg, Southwest Sees $1 Billion Atlanta Revenue Gain on AirTran Merger, October 6, 2011



Table 2‐13 – Southwest‐AirTran Merger Growth Forecast

Year Annual


Annual Operations

Annual Growth

2011 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 ‐

2012 5,007,500 4.2% 127,640 2.4%

2013 5,364,200 7.1% 132,330 3.7%

2014 5,735,500 6.9% 137,210 3.7%

2015 6,109,600 6.5% 142,060 3.5%

2016 6,309,700 3.3% 145,260 2.3%

2017 6,515,800 3.3% 148,530 2.3%

2018 6,732,600 3.3% 151,860 2.2%

2019 6,951,700 3.3% 155,270 2.2%

2020 7,177,300 3.2% 158,750 2.2%

2021 7,407,600 3.2% 162,290 2.2%

2022 7,649,400 3.3% 165,910 2.2%

2023 7,894,400 3.2% 169,610 2.2%

2024 8,146,500 3.2% 173,400 2.2%

2025 8,409,600 3.2% 177,280 2.2%

2026 8,676,800 3.2% 181,250 2.2%

2027 8,956,800 3.2% 185,320 2.2%

2028 9,241,300 3.2% 189,480 2.2%

2029 9,534,800 3.2% 193,740 2.2%

2030 9,842,100 3.2% 198,100 2.3%

2031 10,154,000 3.2% 202,540 2.2%

2011‐2031 Growth 111.3% 62.6%

Source: MNAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Table 2‐14 – Southwest‐AirTran Merger Growth vs. Preferred Forecast


Year Preferred SW Growth Forecast

Forecast vs. Preferred Preferred

SW Growth Forecast

Forecast vs. Preferred

2011 4,806,092 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 123,972 ‐

2016 5,835,700 6,309,700 8.1% 140,990 145,260 3.0%

2021 6,929,300 7,407,600 6.9% 158,020 162,290 2.7%

2026 8,190,000 8,676,800 5.9% 176,980 181,250 2.4%

2031 9,658,600 10,154,000 5.1% 198,270 202,540 2.2%

AAGR 2011‐2031

3.6% 3.8% 2.4% 2.5%

Source: RW Armstrong, 2012.



2.3.4.2 Charter Activity Growth

The growth of scheduled and non‐scheduled charter activity has the potential to drive

additional air carrier activity at BNA. Scheduled charter airlines such as Allegiant and Sun

Country provide point‐to‐point service for leisure travelers to popular tourist destinations such

as Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, Las Vegas, Miami, as well as destinations in Mexico and the

Caribbean. Likewise, Nashville itself is considered a popular tourist destination with the ability

to attract leisure traffic and has a history of passenger charter operations. Between 2008 and

2009 there were nearly 40 international charter operations enplaning over 2,800 passengers.

Though that level has decreased in 2010 and 2011 to 14 operations and just over 1,200

enplanements, the number is expected to rebound as the global economy recovers.

For the purposes of this forecast, it is assumed that charter activity at BNA will begin to see

increases beginning in 2012 with a return to 2008‐2009 levels, and that scheduled charter

operations will begin in 2013 at three flights per week (a typical activity level for scheduled

charter carriers entering a new market). These operations will gradually increase until an

average of seven flights per week is reached by 2018. Table 2‐15 provides the charter growth

forecast; charter operations and enplanement growth assumptions are applied to the

econometric forecast to arrive at this forecast scenario.

Table 2‐16 compares the charter growth forecast with the preferred forecast. By the end of the

forecast period, projected enplanements are expected to be 0.5 percent above what is

predicted in the preferred forecast, while operations are projected to be 0.4 percent above

what is predicted in the preferred forecast.



Table 2‐15 – Charter Growth Forecast

Year Annual


Annual Operations

Annual Growth

2011 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 ‐

2012 5,007,500 4.2% 127,640 3.0%

2013 5,229,400 4.4% 131,220 2.8%

2014 5,450,000 4.2% 134,760 2.7%

2015 5,669,100 4.0% 138,270 2.6%

2016 5,875,100 3.6% 141,550 2.4%

2017 6,087,000 3.6% 144,910 2.4%

2018 6,305,400 3.6% 148,320 2.4%

2019 6,524,500 3.5% 151,730 2.3%

2020 6,750,100 3.5% 155,210 2.3%

2021 6,980,400 3.4% 158,750 2.3%

2022 7,217,900 3.4% 162,370 2.3%

2023 7,462,900 3.4% 166,070 2.3%

2024 7,715,000 3.4% 169,860 2.3%

2025 7,973,900 3.4% 173,740 2.3%

2026 8,241,100 3.4% 177,710 2.3%

2027 8,516,800 3.3% 181,780 2.3%

2028 8,801,300 3.3% 185,940 2.3%

2029 9,094,800 3.3% 190,200 2.3%

2030 9,397,800 3.3% 194,560 2.3%

2031 9,709,700 3.3% 199,000 2.3%

2011‐2031 Growth 102.0% 60.5%

Source: MNAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2011‐2031, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Table 2‐16 – Charter Growth vs. Preferred Forecast


Year Preferred

Charter Growth Forecast


Charter Growth Forecast


2011 4,806,092 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 123,972 ‐

2016 5,835,700 5,875,100 0.7% 140,990 141,550 0.4%

2021 6,929,300 6,980,400 0.7% 158,020 158,750 0.5%

2026 8,190,000 8,241,100 0.6% 176,980 177,710 0.4%

2031 9,658,600 9,709,700 0.5% 198,270 199,000 0.4%

AAGR 2011‐2031

3.6% 3.6% 2.4% 2.4%

Source: FAA TAF, RW Armstrong, 2012.



2.3.4.3 Domestic High‐Growth Forecast

The domestic high‐growth forecast assumes that BNA will see added gains from both the

Southwest‐AirTran merger, as well as gains from increased charter activity (both international

and domestic). The gains in enplanements and operations presented in the previous two

scenarios are applied to the econometric forecast and presented in Table 2‐17.

Table 2‐17 – Domestic High‐Growth Forecast

Year Annual


Annual Operations

Annual Growth

2011 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 ‐

2012 5,007,500 4.2% 127,640 3.0%

2013 5,386,000 7.6% 132,640 3.9%

2014 5,763,200 7.0% 137,610 3.7%

2015 6,143,100 6.6% 142,540 3.6%

2016 6,349,100 3.4% 145,820 2.3%

2017 6,561,000 3.3% 149,180 2.3%

2018 6,783,700 3.4% 152,590 2.3%

2019 7,002,800 3.2% 156,000 2.2%

2020 7,228,400 3.2% 159,480 2.2%

2021 7,458,700 3.2% 163,020 2.2%

2022 7,700,500 3.2% 166,640 2.2%

2023 7,945,500 3.2% 170,340 2.2%

2024 8,197,600 3.2% 174,130 2.2%

2025 8,460,700 3.2% 178,010 2.2%

2026 8,727,900 3.2% 181,980 2.2%

2027 9,007,900 3.2% 186,050 2.2%

2028 9,292,400 3.2% 190,210 2.2%

2029 9,585,900 3.2% 194,470 2.2%

2030 9,893,200 3.2% 198,830 2.2%

2031 10,205,100 3.2% 203,270 2.2%

2011‐2031 Growth 112.3% 64.0%

Source: MNAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2011‐2031, RW Armstrong 2012.

Table 2‐18 compares the domestic high‐growth forecast with the preferred forecast. By the end

of the forecast period, projected enplanements are expected to be 5.7 percent above what is

predicted in the preferred forecast, while operations are projected to be 2.5 percent above

what is predicted in the preferred forecast.



Table 2‐18 – Domestic High‐Growth vs. Preferred Forecast


Year Preferred

Domestic High‐growth Forecast


Domestic High‐growth Forecast


2011 4,806,092 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 123,972 ‐

2016 5,835,700 6,349,100 8.8% 140,990 145,820 3.4%

2021 6,929,300 7,458,700 7.6% 158,020 163,020 3.2%

2026 8,190,000 8,727,900 6.6% 176,980 181,980 2.8%

2031 9,658,600 10,205,100 5.7% 198,270 203,270 2.5%

AAGR 2011‐2031

3.6% 3.8% 2.4% 2.5%


2.3.4.4 International Traffic Growth

The international traffic growth forecast assumes an increase in international traffic resulting

from the Southwest‐AirTran merger and the increased international charter activity discussed

in the previous two scenarios. This scenario adjusted the domestic high‐growth scenario to

account for AirTran operations to international destinations. For planning purposes, two daily

AirTran departures to international destinations was assumed for the period 2016‐2021,

increasing to four daily international departures for the remainder of the forecast period. Table

2‐19 presents the results of this scenario.

Table 2‐20 compares the international traffic growth forecast with the preferred forecast. By

the end of the forecast period, projected enplanements are expected to be 7.8 percent above

what is predicted in the preferred forecast, while operations are projected to be 4.0 percent

above what is predicted in the preferred forecast.



Table 2‐19 – International Traffic Growth Forecast

Year Annual


Annual Operations

Annual Growth

2011 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 ‐

2012 5,007,500 4.2% 127,640 3.0%

2013 5,386,000 7.6% 132,640 3.9%

2014 5,763,200 7.0% 137,610 3.7%

2015 6,143,100 6.6% 142,540 3.6%

2016 6,451,300 5.0% 147,280 3.3%

2017 6,663,200 3.3% 150,640 2.3%

2018 6,885,900 3.3% 154,050 2.3%

2019 7,105,000 3.2% 157,460 2.2%

2020 7,330,600 3.2% 160,940 2.2%

2021 7,560,900 3.1% 164,480 2.2%

2022 7,904,900 4.5% 169,560 3.1%

2023 8,149,900 3.1% 173,260 2.2%

2024 8,402,000 3.1% 177,050 2.2%

2025 8,665,100 3.1% 180,930 2.2%

2026 8,932,300 3.1% 184,900 2.2%

2027 9,212,300 3.1% 188,970 2.2%

2028 9,496,800 3.1% 193,130 2.2%

2029 9,790,300 3.1% 197,390 2.2%

2030 10,097,600 3.1% 201,750 2.2%

2031 10,409,500 3.1% 206,190 2.2%

2011‐2031 Growth 116.6% 66.3%

Source: MNAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2011‐2031, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Table 2‐20 – International Traffic Growth vs. Preferred Forecast


Year Preferred

Int'l Traffic Growth Forecast


Int'l Traffic Growth Forecast


2011 4,806,092 4,806,092 ‐ 123,972 123,972 ‐

2016 5,835,700 6,451,300 10.5% 140,990 147,280 4.5%

2021 6,929,300 7,560,900 9.1% 158,020 164,480 4.1%

2026 8,190,000 8,932,300 9.1% 176,980 184,900 4.5%

2031 9,658,600 10,409,500 7.8% 198,270 206,190 4.0%

AAGR 2011‐2031

3.6% 3.9% 2.4% 2.4%




2.3.4.5 Other High‐Growth Scenario Considerations

In addition to the aforementioned alternate forecast scenarios, other factors that were

determined to have the potential to result in traffic gains at the Airport were evaluated and

ultimately dismissed. These factors include the recent American Airlines bankruptcy, the closing

of the Opryland USA Theme Park in 1997 and scheduled opening of the new amusement park,

and the opening of the Music City Center in downtown Nashville. The following subsections

address these considerations.

American Airlines Bankruptcy: In November 2011, American Airlines filed for Chapter 11

bankruptcy protection. In spite of this, according to American Airlines, load factors and aircraft

operations have increased since the previous year. As with most airlines, regional carriers are

the most susceptible to market fluctuations and fallout from bankruptcy. It is anticipated that

the greatest impact to American Airlines would likely result in cutbacks to its 35‐50 seat

regional aircraft operated by American Eagle. However, American Eagle has reported that

recent passenger activity has increased by more than ten percent. Due to the outcome

uncertainty of the recent Chapter 11 filing, and the subsequent gains in passenger activity

reported by American Airlines and American Eagle, it is difficult to properly gauge how this

bankruptcy may affect the airlines at this time.

The Opening of the Planned Amusement Park: In early 2012, during the preparation of this

Master Plan Update forecasting exercise, Gaylord Entertainment Company and Dollywood

Company announced their joint plans to open an approximate $50 million water and snow

park. The park will be located on Briley Parkway near the Gaylord Opryland Resort and

Convention Center, and is scheduled to open by the summer of 2014. Projections indicate that

as many as 500,000 people will visit the park during the first year of its opening. Consequently,

a potential increase in passenger activity resulting from the opening of the planned amusement

park was considered in this analysis. For comparative purposes, historic BNA passenger activity

was evaluated to identify if a discernible decline in BNA passengers could be attributed to the

closing of the Opryland USA Theme Park at the end of 1997. This evaluation was conducted to

determine if an increase in annual passengers at BNA related to the planned opening and

operation of the water and snow park could be reasonably assumed for forecasting purposes.

The evaluation of BNA passenger activity data from 1975 through 2000 revealed no noticeable

fluctuations in activity that can be attributed to the operation or the closing of the Opryland

USA Theme Park, thus indicating that Park visitors who arrived in Nashville via commercial air

carrier service at BNA comprised a negligible portion of total annual passengers. With no direct

indication that the planned amusement park will result in substantial, measureable increases in

BNA passenger activity, this scenario was dismissed from further consideration.



The Opening of Music City Center: At the time that this forecast was prepared, Nashville’s new

convention center, Music City Center (MCC), was under construction and expected to open in

early 2013. This new venue is proposed to offer 523,500 square feet of exhibit, ballroom, and

meeting space, as compared to the nearly 150,000 square feet of exhibit and meeting space

offered by the existing Nashville Convention Center. The opening of MCC is expected to

increase event demand and attendance, which in turn will result in additional passengers using

BNA. Based on the information contained within a feasibility study prepared for MCC, total

annual attendance is expected to grow from 129,800 to 546,500 within its first four years of

operation, and then stabilize at that capacity beyond the four years. These attendance

projections account for the following categories: Conventions and Tradeshows, Consumer

Shows, Meetings and Conferences, Banquets, and Other. As part of this Master Plan Update

forecasting exercise, a national convention center research and planning expert was contacted

to ascertain the percentage of MCC visitors that can reasonably be expected to use commercial

air carrier service via BNA for event participation. According to the industry expert,

approximately 50 percent to 65 percent of the “Conventions and Tradeshows” segment of MCC

visitors can be expected to arrive via commercial air carrier at BNA. The feasibility study that

was prepared for MCC indicated that of the 546,500 annual visitors, 209,000 would be

accounted for in the “Conventions and Tradeshows” segment. Assuming that 65 percent of

these attendees will arrive in Nashville via commercial air carrier results in an additional

135,850 arriving/departing annual passengers at BNA in 2016 and beyond.

As shown in Table 2‐11, the recommended Master Plan Update forecast indicates total annual

passenger enplanements to be 5,835,700 in 2016, increasing to 9,658,600 enplanements at the

end of the forecast period. Based on these figures, when MCC is at full capacity in a stabile year

of operation, visitors who are expected to use commercial air carrier service at BNA to attend

conventions and tradeshows will account for approximately 2.3 percent of total annual

passenger traffic in 2016. This figure decreases to 1.4 percent in 2031. Therefore, since the

impact of MCC visitors who use BNA for event attendance is expected to be nominal compared

to total annual passenger traffic forecasts for the Airport, this scenario was dismissed from

further consideration.

2.4 ForecastofAirCargoOperationsandVolume

In 2011, there were approximately 2,640 all‐cargo carrier operations at BNA. These all‐cargo

carrier operations transported approximately 45,000 tons of cargo during the year. The

following is a list of the all‐cargo carriers and aircraft that operated at BNA in 2011:

ASTAR (DHL): Boeing 727, DC‐8



BAX Global: Boeing 727, DC‐8

Capital Cargo International: Boeing 727

CSA, Inc.: Cessna 208

FedEx: Airbus A‐300,310, Boeing 727,757, DC‐10, MD‐11

Mountain Air Cargo: ATR‐72

2.4.1 ForecastofAirCargoOperations

For the purposes of this forecast, two air cargo operations forecast scenarios are presented

based on growth rates provided in the FAA Aerospace Forecasts, FY2011‐2031 and the MNAA

cargo operations count. The first forecast scenario will assume BNA maintains a static market

share throughout the forecast period. This assumption forms the basis of the second cargo

operations forecast scenario. This high‐growth forecast scenario assumes a new carrier (based

on historic precedent) enters the market during the forecast period.

Table 2‐21 lists the all‐cargo carriers that operated at BNA in 2011 along with each carrier’s

operations count and total share of operations at the Airport for the year. As noted in the table,

the total all‐cargo operations count of 2,640 will be used as the baseline figure for the

subsequent cargo forecasts.

Table 2‐21 – 2011 BNA Cargo Operations

Carrier Operations Share

FedEx 1,510 57.2%

Capital Cargo International 790 29.9%

BAX Global 300 11.4%

ASTAR (DHL) 30 1.1%

Miscellaneous Cargo Carriers 10 0.4%

Total 2,640 100.0%

Source: MNAA, RW Armstrong, 2012.

2.4.1.1 Static Market Share Forecast

Based on the assumptions of constant market share and a stable route structure, combined

with capacity assumptions based on the FedEx BNA fleet mix, it is anticipated that the current

number of domestic all‐cargo carriers operating at the Airport will remain constant. Additional

required capacity for the all‐cargo carriers will likely be accommodated by upsizing the aircraft

in lieu of adding an additional flight. The fleet mix may change, but operations are expected to

grow at a modest rate throughout the forecast period consistent with national projections.



The projected growth rate applied to the 2011 baseline cargo operations is derived from the

FAA Aerospace Forecast, FY2011‐2031 for all‐cargo aircraft growth, which predicts a 2.1 percent

average annual growth rate for air cargo aircraft in the U.S. This methodology assumes

consistent utilization rates of aircraft through the forecast period, translating to a 2.1 percent

AAGR in all‐cargo aircraft operations. Table 2‐22 presents the static market forecast based on

2011 MNAA cargo operations data. As shown in the table, the static market forecast predicts

an overall 52 percent increase in air cargo operations during the forecast period.

Table 2‐22 – Static Market Cargo Operations Forecast

Year Annual

Operations Change

2011 2,640 ‐

2012 2,700 2.1%

2013 2,760 2.1%

2014 2,820 2.1%

2015 2,880 2.1%

2016 2,940 2.1%

2017 3,000 2.1%

2018 3,060 2.1%

2019 3,120 2.1%

2020 3,190 2.1%

2021 3,260 2.1%

2022 3,330 2.1%

2023 3,400 2.1%

2024 3,470 2.1%

2025 3,540 2.1%

2026 3,610 2.1%

2027 3,690 2.1%

2028 3,770 2.1%

2029 3,850 2.1%

2030 3,930 2.1%

2031 4,010 2.1%

2011‐2031 Growth 52.0%




2.4.1.2 High‐Growth Cargo Forecast

In 2009, at the height of the 2007‐2009 recession, China Airlines suspended its Boeing 747

freight service to BNA after eight years of operation. China Airlines termed the cessation of

service a “suspension of operations,” which was likely due to the economic conditions that

were prevalent at the time. Indications were given that as economic and trade activity levels

recover, there would be the possibility of a resumption of service. Recent conversations with

MNAA have revealed a high likelihood that China Airlines will resume service, a development

that will be factored into a cargo high‐growth scenario.

As with past China Airlines service, Dell Computer cargo is anticipated to drive volume; the Dell

distribution center in Nashville is currently active and being operated by CEVA Logistics. It is

assumed that China Airlines will resume operations in 2013 at a rate of four flights per week in

year two of the forecast, four flights per week in year three (2014), and six flights per week in

year four (2015). This is a typical cargo route development scenario, with the possibility for

growth to occur at a faster rate. Freight forwarders will drive volume as they divert shipments

to BNA (likely from Atlanta and Huntsville). However, the shift may be gradual and dependent

on factors such a pricing, origin and destination points within the U.S., and contracts with

current lift providers. The following details the total incremental operations added in the first

four years of the forecast:

Forecast Year 2: 208 operations Forecast Year 3: 416 operations Forecast Year 4: 624 operations

It is important to note that once China Airlines has resumed peak operations, it is assumed the

baseline cargo operations will continue to grow at the 2.1 percent AAGR used in the static

market forecast. Table 2‐23 details the high‐growth cargo operations forecast. The high‐growth

forecast predicts an overall 84.5 percent increase in air cargo operations during the forecast

period.



Table 2‐23 – High‐Growth Cargo Operations Forecast

Year Annual

Operations Change

2011 2,640 ‐

2012 2,700 2.1%

2013 2,970 10.0%

2014 3,240 9.1%

2015 3,500 8.0%

2016 3,570 2.1%

2017 3,640 2.1%

2018 3,720 2.1%

2019 3,800 2.1%

2020 3,880 2.1%

2021 3,960 2.1%

2022 4,040 2.1%

2023 4,120 2.1%

2024 4,210 2.1%

2025 4,300 2.1%

2026 4,390 2.1%

2027 4,480 2.1%

2028 4,570 2.1%

2029 4,670 2.1%

2030 4,770 2.1%

2031 4,870 2.1%

2011‐2031 Growth 84.5%

Note: Includes resumption of China Airlines operations in 2013. Source: MNAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031, RW Armstrong, 2012.

2.4.1.3 Recommended Forecast of Air Cargo Operations

According to the Airports Council International (ACI), the Asia‐Pacific and North America cargo

markets experienced a decline of almost two percent in 2011. While this may suggest a further

decline in regional markets as well, BNA cargo is anticipated to experience growth based upon

increased operations by both FedEx and other cargo carriers operating at BNA. However, due to

the uncertainty of international air carrier activity, such as China Airlines, the static market

forecast, which results in modest increases in BNA cargo operations growth, was selected as

the preferred forecast.



2.4.2 ForecastofAirCargoVolume

As discussed previously, there are a variety of all‐cargo carriers operating at BNA. Table 2‐24

presents the five year historic deplaned and enplaned cargo at the Airport.

Table 2‐24 – Historic Deplaned/Enplaned Cargo (Tons) Year Deplaned Enplaned Total

2007 44,020 31,230 75,250

2008 40,350 34,640 75,000

2009 28,620 25,430 54,050

2010 19,650 24,790 44,440

2011 20,470 24,530 45,000


Similar to the forecast of air cargo operations, assumptions presented in the FAA Aerospace

Forecast, FY2011‐2031, were utilized to developed projected volumes of cargo at BNA

throughout the forecast period. Specifically, the FAA suggests:

Existing security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place

Most shifting of air to ground cargo transportation has already occurred

Long‐term cargo activity will be tied to economic growth

For the purposes of developing a forecast of air cargo volume at BNA, projected cargo

operations were used to forecast anticipated cargo tonnage.

2.4.2.1 Static Market Share Cargo Volume Forecast

Consistent with the static market share cargo operations forecast, it is anticipated that cargo

volume at the Airport will proportionally experience an average annual growth rate of 2.1

percent. Table 2‐25 presents the static market share cargo tonnage forecast based upon the

projected cargo operations.

As shown in the table, the static market forecast results in an overall 51.6 percent increase in

air cargo volume during the forecast period.



Table 2‐25 – Static Market Cargo Volume Forecast (Tons) Year Deplaned Enplaned Total Change

2011 20,470 24,530 45,000 ‐

2012 20,900 25,050 45,950 2.1%

2013 21,340 25,580 46,920 2.1%

2014 21,790 26,120 47,910 2.1%

2015 22,250 26,670 48,920 2.1%

2016 22,720 27,230 49,950 2.1%

2017 23,200 27,800 51,000 2.1%

2018 23,690 28,380 52,070 2.1%

2019 24,190 28,980 53,170 2.1%

2020 24,700 29,590 54,290 2.1%

2021 25,220 30,210 55,430 2.1%

2022 25,750 30,840 56,590 2.1%

2023 26,290 31,490 57,780 2.1%

2024 26,840 32,150 58,990 2.1%

2025 27,400 32,830 60,230 2.1%

2026 27,980 33,520 61,500 2.1%

2027 28,570 34,220 62,790 2.1%

2028 29,170 34,940 64,110 2.1%

2029 29,780 35,670 65,450 2.1%

2030 30,410 36,420 66,830 2.1%

2031 31,050 37,180 68,230 2.1%

Total 51.6%


2.4.2.2 High‐Growth Cargo Volume Forecast

According to MNAA data, at the peak of its BNA operations in 2006, China Airlines

deplaned/enplaned approximately 32,530 tons of cargo at the Airport for the year, averaging

approximately 52 tons of cargo per operation. For this Master Plan Update, cargo volumes are

projected to gradually increase based upon historic China Airlines peak cargo operations, and

growth rates presented in the static market cargo forecast. Table 2‐26 presents the high‐

growth cargo tonnage forecast.

As shown in the table, the static market forecast results in an overall 102 percent increase in air cargo volume during the forecast period.



Table 2‐26 – High‐Growth Cargo Volume Forecast (Tons) Year Deplaned Enplaned Total Change

2011 20,470 24,530 45,000 ‐

2012 20,900 25,045 45,945 2.1%

2013 25,799 26,543 52,342 13.9%

2014 30,707 28,047 58,754 12.2%

2015 35,626 29,560 65,186 10.9%

2016 36,374 30,181 66,554 2.1%

2017 37,137 30,815 67,952 2.1%

2018 37,917 31,462 69,379 2.1%

2019 38,714 32,122 70,836 2.1%

2020 39,527 32,797 72,324 2.1%

2021 40,357 33,486 73,842 2.1%

2022 41,204 34,189 75,393 2.1%

2023 42,069 34,907 76,976 2.1%

2024 42,953 35,640 78,593 2.1%

2025 43,855 36,388 80,243 2.1%

2026 44,776 37,152 81,928 2.1%

2027 45,716 37,933 83,649 2.1%

2028 46,676 38,729 85,405 2.1%

2029 47,656 39,543 87,199 2.1%

2030 48,657 40,373 89,030 2.1%

2031 49,679 41,221 90,900 2.1%

Total 102.0%

Note: Includes resumption of China Airlines operations in 2013. Source: MNAA, RW Armstrong, 2012.

2.4.2.3 Recommended Forecast of Air Cargo Volume

Consistent with the cargo operations growth, the static market share cargo volume forecast

provides a likely scenario for cargo volume growth and is carried forward as the recommended

forecast.

2.5 ForecastofGeneralAviationandMilitaryActivity

There are a variety of aviation activities that comprise the broad definition of GA. General

aviation includes all segments of the aviation industry except commercial air

carriers/regional/commuter service, scheduled cargo, and military operations.

General aviation represents the largest percentage of civil aircraft in the U.S. and accounts for

the majority of operations handled by towered and non‐towered airports, as well as the



majority of certificated pilots. Its activities include the flight training, sightseeing, aerial

photography, law enforcement, and medical flights, as well as business, corporate, and

personal travel via air taxi charter operations. General aviation aircraft encompass a broad

range of types, from single‐engine piston aircraft to large corporate jets, as well as helicopters,

gliders, and amateur‐built aircraft.

Military aircraft and operations are simply defined as aircraft and operations conducted by the

nation’s military forces. Military aircraft are also included in the based aircraft and operations

projections, but are not forecast in the same manner as GA activity since their number,

location, and activity levels are not a function of anticipated market and economic conditions,

but are rather a function of military decisions, national security priorities, and budget pressures

that cannot be predicted over the course of the forecast period. Typically, military based

aircraft and military operations, for forecasting purposes, remain static at baseline year levels

through the forecast period.

General aviation and military operations are divided into the subcategories of local and

itinerant operations. Local operations are those arrivals or departures performed by aircraft

that remain in the airport traffic pattern, or are within sight of the airport. Local operations are

most often associated with training activity and flight instruction, and include touch and go

operations. Itinerant operations are arrivals or departures other than local operations,

performed by either based or transient aircraft that do not remain in the airport traffic pattern

or within a 20‐nautical mile radius.

The forecast of general aviation and military activity presented in this section consists of based

aircraft and operations projections through the 2031 planning horizon. As with the commercial

service aviation forecasts, the TAF is used as the baseline forecast for comparison purposes,

with a market share forecast and econometric forecast based on Nashville MSA socioeconomic

data presented as alternative scenarios.

2.5.1 GeneralAviationandMilitaryTAF

The adjusted GA and Military TAF for BNA is presented in Table 2‐27. This forecast accounts for

the removal of 2011 GA air taxi operations from the “Air Taxi and Commuter” operations (an

exercise conducted in the commercial operations forecast section) and moves those operations

into the GA Itinerant Operations total. Through the forecast period, the TAF indicates that

based aircraft growth will be robust at 2.1 percent annually, while itinerant operations will

grow at 1.9 percent annually and local operations 2.2 percent annually.

Note that local operations at BNA are minimal, accounting for only two one‐hundredths of a

percent of total Airport operations. Local operations are typically associated with high levels of



flight training and touch‐and‐go activity, which typically is not prominent at airports with high

levels of commercial activity. Since local operations do not represent a significant portion of

BNA total operations, nor are they expected to in the future, local operations will be combined

with itinerant operations and presented in total for GA and military operations.

Table 2‐27 – 2010 Adjusted General Aviation TAF

Local Operations Itinerant Operations

Year Based Aircraft GA Military

Total Local

GA Air Taxi GA Military

Total Itinerant

Total Operations

Historic

2005 146 1,582 50 1,632 28,645 48,879 3,813 81,337 82,969

2006 143 291 7 298 27,331 43,818 3,325 74,474 74,772

2007 143 575 31 606 26,177 42,042 3,101 71,320 71,926

2008 119 92 1 93 21,982 36,348 3,304 61,634 61,727

2009 112 54 0 54 15,428 27,862 3,985 47,275 47,329

2010 114 54 2 56 21,069 27,427 3,946 52,442 52,498

Projected

2011 117 34 2 36 18,931 25,406 3,946 48,283 48,319

2012 119 35 2 37 19,274 25,963 3,946 49,183 49,220

2013 123 36 2 38 19,623 26,531 3,946 50,100 50,138

2014 125 37 2 39 19,980 27,112 3,946 51,038 51,077

2015 127 38 2 40 20,343 27,706 3,946 51,995 52,035

2016 130 39 2 41 20,714 28,313 3,946 52,973 53,014

2017 133 40 2 42 21,092 28,933 3,946 53,971 54,013

2018 136 41 2 43 21,478 29,567 3,946 54,991 55,034

2019 138 42 2 44 21,871 30,214 3,946 56,031 56,075

2020 141 43 2 45 22,272 30,876 3,946 57,094 57,139

2021 145 44 2 46 22,681 31,552 3,946 58,179 58,225

2022 148 45 2 47 23,098 32,243 3,946 59,287 59,334

2023 151 46 2 48 23,523 32,949 3,946 60,418 60,466

2024 154 47 2 49 23,957 33,671 3,946 61,574 61,623

2025 157 48 2 50 24,400 34,409 3,946 62,755 62,805

2026 160 49 2 51 24,852 35,162 3,946 63,960 64,011

2027 163 50 2 52 25,312 35,932 3,946 65,190 65,242

2028 166 51 2 53 25,782 36,719 3,946 66,447 66,500

2029 169 52 2 54 26,261 37,523 3,946 67,730 67,784

2030 172 53 2 55 26,750 38,344 3,946 69,040 69,095

2031* 176 54 2 56 27,434 39,184 3,946 70,564 70,620

*Estimate based on 2011‐2030 TAF AAGR. Source: FAA TAF.



Table 2‐28 shows the 2011 based aircraft fleet mix for BNA, as provided by the MNAA. Note

that the total of 111 aircraft does not match the TAF reported 117 aircraft for 2011; for the

purposes of the forecast, the MNAA‐reported total was considered to be the most accurate and

therefore serves as the fleet mix baseline for subsequent GA and military based aircraft

forecasts.

Table 2‐28 – 2011 Based Aircraft Fleet Mix


Percent of Total

Single Engine Piston 18 16.2%


Turbo‐Prop 15 13.5%

Jet 41 36.9%

Rotorcraft 2 1.8%

Military 10 9.0%

Total 111 100%

Source: MNAA, 2012.

2.5.2 GeneralAviationandMilitaryMarketShareForecast

The market share forecast methodology assumes that BNA GA and military based aircraft and

operations will grow at the national rate, maintaining its relative share of national GA and

military fleet and operations through the forecast period. For based aircraft projections, each

aircraft type will grow at the projected rate detailed in Table 2‐29, which presents the national

GA fleet growth rates as forecast in the FAA Aerospace Forecasts, FY2011‐2031. Since each

aircraft type is forecast independently based on specific growth rates unique to the aircraft

type, a more robust fleet mix and total based aircraft count can be predicted with the FAA

Aerospace Forecast than when using the TAF as a sole source forecast (the TAF forecasts an

aggregate based aircraft number, not by specific type). The forecast factors in Table 2‐29 were

applied, unadjusted, to the 2011 BNA based aircraft count presented in Table 2‐28.

Table 2‐30 presents the market share based aircraft forecast in which the national growth rates

are applied to the 2011 BNA fleet mix. Note that projections for military aircraft are not

provided. Therefore, it was assumed for the purposes of this forecast that based military

aircraft at BNA will remain constant throughout the planning period.



Table 2‐29 – National GA Fleet Growth Rates

Period

Single Engine Piston

Multi Engine Piston

Turbo Prop Jet Rotor

2011‐2016 AAGR ‐0.4% ‐0.9% 1.3% 4.3% 2.7%

2017‐2021 AAGR 0.1% ‐0.9% 1.4% 4.3% 2.8%

2022‐2026 AAGR 0.6% ‐0.8% 1.4% 4.2% 2.6%

2027‐2031 AAGR 0.8% ‐0.8% 1.4% 4.2% 2.4%

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031.

Table 2‐30 – Based Aircraft: Market Share Forecast

Year


Multi Engine Piston

Turbo Prop Jet Rotor Military Total

2011 18 25 15 41 2 10 111

2012 18 25 15 43 2 10 113

2013 18 25 15 45 2 10 115

2014 18 24 16 46 2 10 116

2015 18 24 16 49 2 10 119

2016 18 24 16 51 2 10 121

2017 18 24 16 53 2 10 123

2018 18 23 16 55 2 10 124

2019 18 23 17 58 2 10 128

2020 18 23 17 60 3 10 131

2021 18 23 17 63 3 10 134

2022 18 23 17 65 3 10 136

2023 18 22 18 68 3 10 139

2024 18 22 18 71 3 10 142

2025 18 22 18 74 3 10 145

2026 18 22 18 77 3 10 148

2027 18 22 19 80 3 10 152

2028 19 22 19 83 3 10 156

2029 19 21 19 87 3 10 159

2030 19 21 19 91 3 10 163

2031 19 21 20 94 3 10 167

AAGR 2011‐2031

0.3% ‐0.9% 1.4% 4.2% 2.0% 0.0% 2.1%




Table 2‐31 presents the BNA market share operations forecast based on the national TAF

growth rates for GA and military operations. Note that the total of 48,380 GA and military

operations does not match the TAF reported 48,319 for 2011. For the purposes of the forecast,

the MNAA‐reported total was considered to be the most accurate and therefore serves as the

GA and military operations baseline for subsequent forecasts.

Table 2‐31 – General Aviation and Military Operations Market Share Forecast

Operations

Year Based Aircraft

GA Air Taxi GA Total GA Military Total

2011 111 15,908 28,896 44,804 3,578 48,380

2012 113 16,120 29,120 45,240 3,579 48,820

2013 115 16,350 29,340 45,690 3,580 49,270

2014 116 16,600 29,570 46,170 3,580 49,750

2015 119 16,840 29,800 46,640 3,581 50,220

2016 121 17,050 30,030 47,080 3,582 50,660

2017 123 17,270 30,260 47,530 3,583 51,110

2018 124 17,490 30,500 47,990 3,584 51,570

2019 128 17,720 30,740 48,460 3,585 52,050

2020 131 17,950 30,980 48,930 3,586 52,520

2021 134 18,190 31,230 49,420 3,587 53,010

2022 136 18,430 31,480 49,910 3,588 53,500

2023 139 18,680 31,740 50,420 3,590 54,010

2024 142 18,930 32,000 50,930 3,591 54,520

2025 145 19,190 32,260 51,450 3,592 55,040

2026 148 19,450 32,530 51,980 3,593 55,570

2027 152 19,720 32,800 52,520 3,595 56,110

2028 156 19,990 33,080 53,070 3,596 56,670

2029 159 20,270 33,360 53,630 3,598 57,230

2030 163 20,560 33,650 54,210 3,599 57,810

2031 167 20,850 33,940 54,790 3,601 58,390

AAGR 2011‐2031

2.1% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.0% 0.9%


Table 2‐32 compares the market share forecast to the BNA TAF forecast. By the end of the

forecast period, projected based aircraft will be 5.1 percent below what is predicted in the TAF,

while operations are expected to be 17.3 percent below the TAF estimates.



Table 2‐32 – Market Share Forecast vs. TAF

Based Aircraft Operations

Year TAF Market Share

Forecast vs. TAF TAF

Market Share

Forecast vs. TAF

2011 117 111 ‐5.1% 48,319 48,380 0.1%

2016 130 121 ‐6.9% 53,014 50,660 ‐4.4%

2021 145 134 ‐7.6% 58,225 53,010 ‐9.0%

2026 160 148 ‐7.5% 64,011 55,570 ‐13.2%

2031 176 167 ‐5.1% 70,620 58,390 ‐17.3%

AAGR 2011‐2031

2.1% 2.1% 1.9% 0.9%


The difference in based aircraft can be partially attributed to the difference in the 2011 baseline

aircraft count, with the actual based aircraft count being five percent below that of the TAF

estimate. However, the 17.3 percent difference in operations between the market share

forecast and the TAF can be attributed to a slighter higher GA actual count, and FAA

acknowledgement that the BNA market is expected to grow at a higher rate than the national

average.

2.5.3 GeneralAviationandMilitaryEconometricForecast

The GA and military econometric forecast adjusts FAA growth factors provided in the FAA

Aerospace Forecast, FY2011‐2031 and the FAA National TAF to arrive at adjusted forecasted

factors for the based aircraft and operations forecasts. As with the commercial air carrier

econometric forecast, it is believed that the BNA TAF in relation to the national TAF does not

exhibit the strong market growth characteristics suggested by local demographic conditions. A

similar incremental growth adjustment to the BNA TAF growth rates were deemed necessary.

The based aircraft AAGR of 2.1 percent provided in the BNA TAF is well above that of both the

national TAF and the FAA Aerospace Forecast AAGR of 0.9 percent. This, however, may be a

function of BNA’s current fleet mix which currently skews heavily toward the fastest growing

segments of GA aircraft; jet and turbo prop aircraft. Excluding military aircraft, these types

currently make up over 55 percent of the Airport’s based aircraft, compared to a mere nine

percent representation in the national GA fleet. Jet and turbo prop aircraft are forecast to grow

at an AAGR of 4.2 and 1.4 percent, respectively, over the forecast period. This is strong growth

when compared to the nearly static projections for piston‐powered aircraft during the same

period.



Despite being higher than the national rate (likely due to fleet mix considerations), the BNA TAF

AAGR may not be sufficient to adequately account for the expected incremental aircraft

growth. Therefore, a growth rate that accounts for the primary catchment area’s incremental

population growth, coupled with the Airport’s turbine‐heavy fleet mix, must be developed.

Again, MSA growth characteristics will be used as a proxy for the Airport’s primary GA

catchment area which encompasses the 13 north‐central Tennessee counties listed previously.

Within the MSA, there are currently only two airports (John C. Tune Airport and Smyrna

Airport) that offer a precision instrument approach as well a runway long enough to support jet

activity. However, due to superior services and infrastructure, coupled with its central location

within the Nashville metropolitan area, BNA is expected to draw from a larger catchment area

than its GA counterparts.

Adjusting the FAA Aerospace Forecasts for the GA fleet requires determining the percentage of

incremental MSA population resulting from above average growth, and applying the difference

to the FAA national growth factors. It is through this methodology that BNA‐specific growth

rates for based aircraft are derived and applied to the based aircraft forecast. The adjusted BNA

GA fleet growth factors are provided in Table 2‐33.

Table 2‐33 – Adjusted GA Fleet Growth Rates

Period


Multi Engine Piston

Turbo Prop Jet Rotor

2011‐2016 0.3% ‐0.2% 2.0% 5.1% 3.4%

2016‐2021 0.9% ‐0.2% 2.1% 5.1% 3.6%

2021‐2026 1.2% ‐0.2% 2.1% 4.9% 3.3%

2026‐2031 1.6% ‐0.2% 2.1% 4.8% 3.1%

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

In addition, the Tennessee Air National Guard recently announced that in July of 2012, BNA

military facilities will begin supporting Tennessee Army National Guard operations. As a result

of this change in mission, the fleet of C‐130 aircraft currently based at BNA will be transferred

to other military installations. The Tennessee Army National Guard, however, has indicated that

one turbo‐prop (C‐12) aircraft and 19 rotorcraft (four Lakotas and 15 Blackhawks) will be based

at BNA. Furthermore, the Tennessee Army National Guard anticipates an approximate total of

11,000 annual operations (10,000 local and 1,000 itinerant) by 2014 as a result of the based

rotorcraft. In sum, the mission change is anticipated to result in an increase in both based

military aircraft and operations.



Table 2‐34 presents the based aircraft econometric forecast along with an adjustment for

increased based military aircraft. As shown in the table, the BNA based aircraft count is

expected to increase to 201 by the end of the forecast period; an increase of approximately 81

percent.

Table 2‐34 – Based Aircraft: Econometric Forecast

Year Single Engine

Multi‐Engine Piston


2011 18 25 15 41 2 10 111

2012 18 25 15 43 2 15 118

2013 18 25 15 45 2 17 122

2014 18 25 16 47 2 20 128

2015 18 25 16 50 2 20 131

2016 18 25 17 52 2 20 134

2017 18 25 17 55 2 20 138

2018 19 25 17 58 3 20 141

2019 19 25 18 61 3 20 145

2020 19 25 18 64 3 20 148

2021 19 25 18 67 3 20 152

2022 19 25 19 71 3 20 156

2023 20 24 19 74 3 20 160

2024 20 24 20 78 3 20 165

2025 20 24 20 82 3 20 169

2026 20 24 20 86 3 20 174

2027 21 24 21 90 3 20 179

2028 21 24 21 94 4 20 184

2029 21 24 22 99 4 20 189

2030 22 24 22 103 4 20 195

2031 22 24 23 108 4 20 201

AAGR 2011‐2031

1.0% ‐0.2% 2.1% 5.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.0%

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031, MNAA, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Following the same methodology used to determine the based aircraft forecast factors, the

adjusted AAGR for air taxi and GA itinerant operations were calculated and compared to the

national and BNA TAF rates. Table 2‐35 compares the national TAF (i.e., market share), the BNA

TAF, and the econometric forecast growth rates for air taxi and GA itinerant operations.



Table 2‐35 – Aircraft Operations: Econometric Forecast

Growth Category

AAGR 2011‐2031

National Population 0.9%

National TAF Air Taxi Ops 1.4%

National TAF GA Ops 0.8%

BNA TAF


BNA TAF Air Taxi Ops 1.9%

BNA TAF GA Ops 2.2%

Econometric


Adjusted BNA TAF Air Taxi Ops 2.1%

Adjusted BNA TAF GA Ops 1.5%

Source: FAA TAF, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

The BNA TAF predicts GA operations to grow at a rate well above that of the national average

for both air taxi and GA itinerant operations. When the MSA adjustment factors are applied to

the national TAF to arrive at the econometric forecast factors, the AAGR for Air Taxi operations

is only slightly above that in the TAF (2.1 percent compared to 1.9 percent), and the AAGR for

GA operations is below by a third (1.5 percent compared to 2.1 percent). Simply put, the BNA

TAF already adjusts the national growth rates for GA operations to levels that reflect the high‐

growth predicted in the Airport’s primary catchment area. For this reason, it was concluded

that no direct adjustment is needed for the GA operations forecast factors presented in the

BNA TAF; the existing growth rates in the TAF already reflect the socioeconomic conditions in

the Airport’s catchment area. The econometric forecast will use TAF‐based growth factors

applied to actual 2011 operations.

Table 2‐36 provides the TAF‐based econometric forecast for air taxi and GA operations along

with a military operations forecast based upon information provided by the Tennessee Air

National Guard and Tennessee Army National Guard. Specifically, the forecast includes a

gradual increase to 11,000 annual military operations as a result of the National Guard mission

change.



Table 2‐36 – General Aviation and Military Operations: TAF Based Econometric Forecast

Operations

Year Based Aircraft

GA Air Taxi GA Total GA Military Total Ops

2011 111 15,908 28,896 44,804 3,578 48,380

2012 118 16,210 29,530 45,740 6,000 51,740

2013 122 16,510 30,180 46,690 9,600 56,290

2014 128 16,820 30,840 47,660 11,000 58,660

2015 131 17,130 31,520 48,650 11,000 59,650

2016 134 17,450 32,210 49,660 11,000 60,660

2017 138 17,780 32,920 50,700 11,000 61,700

2018 141 18,110 33,640 51,750 11,000 62,750

2019 145 18,450 34,380 52,830 11,000 63,830

2020 148 18,800 35,130 53,930 11,000 64,930

2021 152 19,150 35,900 55,050 11,000 66,050

2022 156 19,510 36,690 56,200 11,000 67,200

2023 160 19,880 37,490 57,370 11,000 68,370

2024 165 20,250 38,310 58,560 11,000 69,560

2025 169 20,630 39,150 59,780 11,000 70,780

2026 174 21,020 40,010 61,030 11,000 72,030

2027 179 21,410 40,890 62,300 11,000 73,300

2028 184 21,810 41,790 63,600 11,000 74,600

2029 189 22,220 42,710 64,930 11,000 75,930

2030 195 22,640 43,650 66,290 11,000 77,290

2031 201 23,060 44,610 67,670 11,000 78,670

AAGR 2011‐2031

3.0% 1.9% 2.2% 2.1% 5.8% 2.5%

Source: MNAA, FAA TAF, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Table 2‐37 compares the market share forecast to the BNA TAF. By the end of the forecast

period, projected based aircraft will be 14 percent above what is predicted in the TAF, while the

combined GA and military operations are expected to be approximately 11.4 percent above the

TAF estimates.



Table 2‐37 – Econometric Forecast vs. TAF


Year TAF Econometric Forecast

Forecast vs. TAF TAF

Econometric Forecast

Forecast vs. TAF

2011 117 111 ‐5.1% 48,319 48,380 0.1%

2016 130 134 3.4% 53,014 60,660 14.4%

2021 145 152 5.0% 58,225 66,050 13.4%

2026 160 174 8.7% 64,011 72,030 12.5%

2031 176 201 14.0% 70,620 78,670 11.4%

AAGR 2011‐2031

2.1% 3.0% 1.9% 2.5%


2.5.4 RecommendedGAandMilitaryForecast

For planning purposes, it is recommended that the TAF‐based econometric forecast be used as

the preferred forecast for based aircraft and GA/military operations. This forecast methodology

uses FAA‐provided national growth rates for based aircraft, independently provided for each

aircraft type, moderately adjusted upward based on socioeconomic growth factors in the MSA.

In addition to MSA socioeconomic factors, superior infrastructure, instrument approaches, and

services at BNA justify growth projections for jet and turbo prop aircraft (key drivers of based

aircraft growth) that are above national average forecasts (for jet aircraft, 5.0 percent AAGR

compared to 4.2 percent AAGR; turbo prop aircraft, 2.1 percent AAGR compared to 1.4 percent

AAGR). For GA operations, the BNA TAF growth rate, which is slightly above the econometrically

adjust rate, is used to forecast operations based on MNAA provided 2011 operations totals. As

discussed previously, forecast military based aircraft and operations are anticipated to increase

by 2014 and then remain static for the remainder of the forecast period.

2.6 PreferredForecastSummary

The following tables present a summary of the preferred aviation activity forecasts for

commercial air carrier activity (operations and enplanements), air cargo carrier operations, GA

activity (based aircraft and operations), and military activity (based aircraft and operations), as

detailed in the previous sections. Additionally, direct comparisons to the BNA TAF are provided

for evaluation purposes. The preferred forecasts are the recommended projections on which

future planning for the Airport will be based. Table 2‐38 presents the complete summary of the

preferred forecast for based aircraft, enplanements, and operations by type (passenger carrier,

air cargo, GA, and military).



Table 2‐38 – Preferred Forecast Summary

Based Aircraft Enplanements

Operations

Year Air

Carrier Air

Cargo GA Military Total

2011 111 4,806,092 123,972 2,640 44,804 3,578 174,994

2012 118 5,007,500 127,640 2,700 45,740 6,000 182,080

2013 122 5,207,600 130,910 2,760 46,690 9,600 189,960

2014 128 5,422,300 134,360 2,820 47,660 11,000 195,840

2015 131 5,635,600 137,790 2,880 48,650 11,000 200,320

2016 134 5,835,700 140,990 2,940 49,660 11,000 204,590

2017 138 6,041,800 144,260 3,000 50,700 11,000 208,960

2018 141 6,254,300 147,590 3,060 51,750 11,000 213,400

2019 145 6,473,400 151,000 3,120 52,830 11,000 217,950

2020 148 6,699,000 154,480 3,190 53,930 11,000 222,600

2021 152 6,929,300 158,020 3,260 55,050 11,000 227,330

2022 156 7,166,800 161,640 3,330 56,200 11,000 232,170

2023 160 7,411,800 165,340 3,400 57,370 11,000 237,110

2024 165 7,663,900 169,130 3,470 58,560 11,000 242,160

2025 169 7,922,800 173,010 3,540 59,780 11,000 247,330

2026 174 8,190,000 176,980 3,610 61,030 11,000 252,620

2027 179 8,465,700 181,050 3,690 62,300 11,000 258,040

2028 184 8,750,200 185,210 3,770 63,600 11,000 263,580

2029 189 9,043,700 189,470 3,850 64,930 11,000 269,250

2030 195 9,346,700 193,830 3,930 66,290 11,000 275,050

2031 201 9,658,600 198,270 4,010 67,670 11,000 280,950

2011‐2031 Growth

80.7% 101.0% 59.9% 51.9% 51.0% 207.4% 60.5%

2011‐2031 AAGR

3.0% 3.6% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 5.8% 2.4%


Table 2‐39 details the preferred air carrier enplanements and total operations (all activity

types) forecast, and the corresponding comparison to the TAF enplanements forecast. At the

end of the planning period, the preferred forecast predicts a level of enplanements 8.1 percent

above the BNA TAF, and total operations 12.5 percent above the TAF. This increase is attributed

to a slightly higher reported operations count by MNAA, strong socioeconomic conditions

within the Airport’s catchment area coupled with a changing fleet mix that will see a gradual

shift to larger capacity aircraft through the planning period, and increased military operations

throughout the forecast period.



Table 2‐39 – Air Carrier Enplanements and Total Operations vs. BNA TAF


Year BNA TAF Preferred Forecast

Preferred Forecast vs. TAF BNA TAF

Preferred Forecast

Preferred Forecast vs. TAF

2011 4,602,897 4,806,092 4.4% 172,909 174,994 1.2%

2016 5,405,952 5,835,700 7.9% 189,338 204,590 8.1%

2021 6,370,845 6,929,300 8.8% 207,492 227,330 9.6%

2026 7,534,897 8,190,000 8.7% 227,565 252,620 11.0%

2031 8,931,826 9,658,600 8.1% 249,770 280,950 12.5%

2011‐2031 AAGR

3.4% 3.6%

1.9% 2.4%


Table 2‐40 details the based aircraft projections for the Airport by aircraft type. This forecast

predicts a based aircraft total of 201 at the end of the forecast period, an increase of just over

81 percent.

Table 2‐40 – Based Aircraft Preferred Forecast

Year Single Engine

Multi‐Engine Piston


2011 18 25 15 41 2 10 111

2016 18 25 17 52 2 20 134

2021 19 25 18 67 3 20 152

2026 20 24 20 86 3 20 174

2031 22 24 23 108 4 20 201

2011‐2031 Growth

22.2% ‐3.6% 53.3% 163.4% 100.0% 100.0% 81.2%

2011‐2031 AAGR

1.0% ‐0.2% 2.2% 5.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.0%


As illustrated in Table 2‐41, the growth in BNA based aircraft is predicted to outpace the growth

presented in the BNA TAF, as well as the national average. Increases in BNA based aircraft will

be driven by jet and turbo prop aircraft which currently comprise the majority of the Airport’s

based GA aircraft along with increased based military aircraft. By the end of the forecast period,

the preferred forecast predicts a based aircraft count that is 14 percent above that provided in

the TAF.



Table 2‐41 – Based Aircraft: Preferred Forecast vs. BNA TAF

Year

TAF of Based Aircraft

Preferred Forecast of

Based Aircraft

Preferred Forecast vs. TAF

2011 117 111 ‐5.1%

2016 130 134 3.4%

2021 145 152 5.0%

2026 160 174 8.7%

2031 176 201 14.0%

2011‐2031 AAGR

2.1% 3.0%


2.7 CommercialAircraftFleetMix

The commercial aircraft fleet mix projections are a function of the scheduled passenger and

cargo carriers that operate (or are expected to operate) at the Airport during the forecast

period, each carrier’s anticipated future fleet mix (i.e., aircraft acquisitions and retirements),

and forecasted enplanement levels that influence a carrier’s aircraft type and level of

operations at a given airport. This data is then coupled with the forecast commercial air carrier

operations to determine the number of annual departures by aircraft type, capacity (annual

available seats), and subsequent load factors (ratio of seats to enplanements).

The following sections provide the commercial carrier fleet mix and load factor analysis, as well

as cargo carrier fleet mix projections. Note that the air cargo carrier fleet mix projections are

presented independently in this section, following the commercial carrier fleet mix and load

factors analysis.

2.7.1 CommercialAirCarrierFleetMix

The first step in determining BNA’s future commercial carrier fleet mix is identifying the overall

market trends that will drive future airline fleets, as well as aircraft mix decisions specific to

each airline operating at the Airport. Table 2‐42 depicts historic departure seats at BNA.

According to the historic figures, the overall number of departure seats has declined since the

early 2000s with an average annual change of ‐1.7 percent. It is important to note, however,

that overall passenger enplanements have increased and are forecast to maintain a positive

growth throughout the planning period. With the increase in the number of short to medium

haul, low‐cost air carriers, and the replacement of older larger aircraft, such as early versions of

the Boeing B737 and Airbus A320, the demand for smaller single‐aisle aircraft has grown within



the past decade trending the industry toward aircraft with fewer seats.2 In general, this

transition has translated to higher passenger capacity per flight.

Table 2‐42 – Historic BNA Departure Seats

Month 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

January 616,573 583,766 602,950 615,257 578,533

February 563,015 522,478 570,275 568,242 518,264

March 627,273 598,364 614,929 634,990 583,931

April 610,499 566,070 587,383 607,480 567,207

May 629,607 598,125 603,267 632,151 590,711

June 615,229 591,179 601,288 612,390 582,269

July 626,878 609,941 624,798 623,871 608,957

August 634,283 608,809 640,027 627,640 624,888

September 602,561 596,631 613,221 589,170 602,955

October 624,315 626,498 642,381 595,337 643,882

November 575,300 577,463 608,195 570,279 613,398

December 591,643 608,493 625,029 586,614 612,440

Total 7,317,176 7,087,817 7,333,743 7,263,421 7,127,435

Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

January 614,739 584,830 518,172 479,596 488,201

February 546,039 532,161 464,351 429,137 444,293

March 616,197 584,466 530,546 462,904 530,489

April 596,545 583,032 529,168 508,331 526,557

May 617,894 591,265 546,091 517,553 546,911

June 595,910 581,330 560,208 535,069 545,926

July 615,199 596,777 578,191 546,325 560,013

August 623,370 605,930 553,147 542,414 544,692

September 580,410 557,613 507,189 522,464 513,202

October 611,032 589,750 532,363 546,580 545,363

November 596,372 536,554 496,890 503,450 502,731

December 590,841 531,291 493,186 491,615 507,129

Total 7,204,548 6,874,999 6,309,502 6,085,438 6,255,507

Note: Year 2001 data not available. Source: MNAA.

2 Boeing, Current Market Outlook 2011‐2030.



According to the 2011 Boeing Current Market Outlook, domestic air carriers have begun

trending away from regional jet aircraft and retiring smaller 50‐seat aircraft at an accelerated

rate. These 50‐seat aircraft are being replaced with larger 70‐ and 90‐plus seat regional jets;

however, replacements will not keep pace with retirements. Boeing predicts that the 2030 fleet

of regional jets will consist of 760 aircraft, down from 1,780 in 2010. Single‐aisle mainline

aircraft will continue to comprise the majority of the domestic fleet and will increase market

share from 56 percent of the fleet in 2009 to 73 percent in 2030.

Consistent with the predicted national fleet shift toward newer, larger, and more efficient

aircraft, BNA specific fleet mix characteristics and trends are identified and applied directly to

the passenger carrier forecasts through 2031. In order to provide a detailed picture of future

BNA operations, the following assumptions are based upon airline‐specific fleet plans and

aircraft orders, as well as overall industry trends:

US Airways Boeing B737‐300 aircraft will be gradually phased out of service and replaced

with Airbus A320 aircraft.3 For forecasting purposes, it was assumed that this transition

will occur at a rate of 15 percent of the US Airways B737‐300 fleet per year.

Southwest Airlines Boeing B737‐300 aircraft will be gradually phased out of service and

replaced with Boeing B737‐700 and B737‐800 aircraft. For forecasting purposes, it was

assumed that this transition will occur at a rate of ten percent of the B737‐300 fleet per

year. The retirement rate of Southwest Airlines B737‐300 is less than that of US Airways

due to newer Southwest B737‐300 aircraft being retrofitted with electronic flight decks,

thus extending the service life of these aircraft.4

American Airlines McDonnell‐Douglas MD80 series aircraft will be gradually phased out of

service and replaced with Boeing B737‐800 aircraft.5 For forecasting purposes, it was

assumed that this transition will occur at a rate of 15 percent of the MD80 fleet per year.

Delta Air Lines McDonnell‐Douglas DC9 aircraft (acquired in the Northwest merger) will be

gradually phased out of service and replaced with Airbus A320 aircraft.6 For forecasting

purposes, it was assumed that this transition will occur at a rate of 15 percent of the DC9

fleet per year.

3 Airbus.com, Summary of Orders and Deliveries. 4 Boeing, Boeing to Lead Southwest Airlines 737 Flight Deck Modernization, December 22, 2008; Boeing.com, Orders through September 2010. 5 Flightglobal, American Orders 35 Additional 737‐800s, July 21, 2010; Boeing.com, Orders through September 2010. 6 Delta Museum.Org, Douglas DC‐9 Factsheet; World Airline News, Delta Retires the last DC9‐30 from Scheduled Service, September 9, 2010; Airbus.com, Summary of Orders and Deliveries.



Delta Boeing B737‐200 operations will transition to 737‐800 aircraft at an estimated rate

of 20 percent per year.

Delta Boeing B767 and B757 operations will transition to A320 aircraft. Due to the

infrequency of these operations, it is assumed that these aircraft were either diverted

flights or replacement aircraft due to flight cancelations. The Official Airline Guide (OAG)

of air carrier flight schedules lists no scheduled B767 or B757 aircraft into BNA.

Regional jet aircraft with a passenger capacity of 50 seats or under (Canadair CRJ100/200

and Embraer ERJ 135/140/145) will be gradually phased out of service and replaced with

larger 70‐seat plus regional jet aircraft (Canadair CRJ700/900 and Embraer

ERJ170/175/190).7 For forecasting purposes, it was assumed that this transition will occur

at a rate of 20 percent of the regional jet fleet per year.

A “cascading” effect will occur with 70‐seat regional jets. As 50‐seat regional jet

operations transition to 70‐seat aircraft, likewise a percentage of 70‐seat regional jet

operations will transition to larger 80‐plus seat and 99‐seat regional jets, and smaller

narrowbody aircraft. It is anticipated that 70‐seat regional jet operations will peak in

2021, and begin a gradual decline thereafter.

Using 2011 as the baseline year, the commercial air carrier fleet mix forecast for BNA takes into

account the assumptions listed above, and the projected annual departures for the Airport as

detailed in the preferred forecast. Departures are used in this exercise in lieu of operations

since a corresponding annual capacity (available seats) must be calculated to determine

projected load factors. A departure is considered a single operation, while an arrival is another.

Simply put, departures equal one‐half of total operations.

Tables 2‐43 and 2‐44 detail the forecast commercial air carrier fleet mix in terms of annual

departures and percent of operations, respectively.

7 Boeing, 2010 Boeing Market Outlook.



Table 2‐43 – Commercial Air Carrier Fleet Mix: Annual Departures by Aircraft

Aircraft Type Seats 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

A318/319 123 1,954 4,891 7,849 8,791 9,848A320/321 150 248 1,758 2,410 3,721 4,046B737‐300 (SWA) 137 10,035 5,043 ‐ ‐ ‐B737‐500 (SWA) 122 818 930 1,043 1,168 1,308B737‐700/800 (SWA) 140 15,675 24,197 32,771 36,703 41,118B737‐300 (USA) 128 226 57 ‐ ‐ ‐B737‐200 114 200 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐B737‐700/800 140 1,121 5,116 6,882 8,730 9,657B757 Series 182 73 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐B767‐300 248 11 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐DC9 Series 118 1,333 335 ‐ ‐ ‐E‐190/CRJ1000 Series 99 4,078 2,787 5,491 7,172 7,912MD80 Series 140 3,223 1,025 ‐ ‐ ‐Regional Jet < 50‐seat 40 16,814 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐Regional Jet 50‐seat 50 4,312 8,449 ‐ ‐ ‐Regional Jet 70‐seat 70 1,761 11,237 14,962 13,691 15,707Regional Jet 86/88‐seat 87 104 4,671 7,603 8,515 9,540

Total Departures 61,986 70,495 79,010 88,490 99,135


Table 2‐44 – Commercial Air Carrier Fleet Mix: Percent of Annual Operations by Aircraft


A318/319 123 3.2% 6.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9%A320/321 150 0.4% 2.5% 3.1% 4.2% 4.1%B737‐300 (SWA) 137 16.2% 7.2% ‐ ‐ ‐B737‐500 (SWA) 122 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%B737‐700/800 (SWA) 140 25.3% 34.3% 41.5% 41.5% 41.5%B737‐300 (USA) 128 0.4% 0.1% ‐ ‐ ‐B737‐200 114 0.3% 0.0% ‐ ‐ ‐B737‐700/800 140 1.8% 7.3% 8.7% 9.9% 9.7%B757 Series 182 0.1% ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐B767‐300 248 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐DC9 Series 118 2.2% 0.5% ‐ ‐ ‐E‐190/CRJ1000 Series 99 6.6% 4.0% 6.9% 8.1% 8.0%MD80 Series 140 5.2% 1.5% ‐ ‐ ‐Regional Jet < 50‐seat 40 27.1% ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐Regional Jet 50‐seat 50 7.0% 12.0% ‐ ‐ ‐Regional Jet 70‐seat 70 2.8% 15.9% 18.9% 15.5% 15.8%Regional Jet 86/88‐seat 87 0.2% 6.6% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6%

Total Departures 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%




Tables 2‐45 and 2‐46 show the same data presented in the previous tables, but organized by

aircraft class (narrowbody, large RJ, medium RJ, and small RJ) to better illustrate the anticipated

shift to larger aircraft. Note that this shift will also have a direct impact on capacity, as fewer

flights are necessary to yield greater capacity.

Table 2‐45 – Commercial Air Carrier Fleet Mix: Annual Departures by Type

Aircraft Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Narrowbody 34,917 43,350 50,954 59,112 65,977

Large RJ (over 70 seats) 4,182 7,458 13,094 15,687 17,451

Medium RJ (70 seats) 1,761 11,237 14,962 13,691 15,707

Small RJ (under 70 seats) 21,126 8,449 ‐ ‐ ‐



Table 2‐46 – Commercial Air Carrier Fleet Mix: Percent of Departures by Type

Aircraft Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Narrowbody 56.3% 61.5% 64.5% 66.8% 66.6%

Large RJ (over 70 seats) 6.7% 10.6% 16.6% 17.7% 17.6%

Medium RJ (70 seats) 2.8% 15.9% 18.9% 15.5% 15.8%

Small RJ (under 70 seats) 34.1% 12.0% ‐ ‐ ‐



As expected, the greatest increases in share of departures will come from narrowbody and

large RJ aircraft as the small RJ fleet is gradually phased‐out and their operations “cascade”

ever increasingly toward larger aircraft. By the end of the forecast period, it was assumed that

small RJs will have exited the market, medium 70‐seat RJs will have claimed less than 16

percent of commercial carrier departures, large RJs will have accounted for nearly 18 percent,

with narrowbody aircraft encompassing the bulk of departures.

2.7.2 CommercialAirCarrierCapacity

Load factors were calculated for the Airport based on forecast annual enplanements and total

available seats (i.e., capacity) derived from the forecast fleet mix presented in the previous

section. Capacity is calculated by multiplying the total number of annual departures of a given



aircraft type by the number of available seats on said aircraft. Table 2‐47 presents the current

and projected annual combined capacity of BNA’s forecast commercial air carrier activity.

Table 2‐47 – Commercial Air Carrier Capacity: Available Seats by Aircraft


A318/319 123 240,374 601,575 965,427 1,081,263 1,211,335

A320/321 150 37,165 263,753 361,516 558,187 606,888

B737‐300 (SWA) 137 1,374,792 690,823 ‐ ‐ ‐

B737‐500 (SWA) 122 99,787 113,485 127,192 142,453 159,590

B737‐700 (SWA) 140 2,194,481 3,387,524 4,587,920 5,138,400 5,756,530

B737‐300 (USA) 128 28,912 7,264 ‐ ‐ ‐

B737‐200 114 22,800 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

B737‐700/800 140 156,997 716,203 963,495 1,222,176 1,351,984

B757 Series 182 13,220 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

B767‐300 248 2,714 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

DC9 Series 118 157,336 39,530 ‐ ‐ ‐

E‐190/CRJ1000 Series 99 403,690 275,928 543,628 710,033 783,276

MD80 Series 140 451,211 143,430 ‐ ‐ ‐

Regional Jet < 50‐seat 40 672,567 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

Regional Jet 50‐seat 50 215,575 422,450 ‐ ‐ ‐

Regional Jet 70‐seat 70 123,285 786,593 1,047,322 958,364 1,099,470

Regional Jet 86/88‐seat 87 9,090 406,405 661,456 740,821 829,939

Total Departure Seats 6,203,995 7,854,961 9,257,955 10,551,699 11,799,011


Similar to the above table, Table 2‐48 shows the available seat data organized by aircraft type

(narrowbody, large RJ, medium RJ, and small RJ).

Table 2‐48 – Commercial Air Carrier Capacity: Available Seats by Type

Aircraft Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Narrowbody 4,779,788 5,963,585 7,005,550 8,142,480 9,086,327

Large RJ (over 70 seats) 412,779 682,332 1,205,084 1,450,854 1,613,215

Medium RJ (70 seats) 123,285 786,593 1,047,322 958,364 1,099,470

Small RJ (under 70 seats) 888,143 422,450 ‐ ‐ ‐

Total Departures 6,203,995 7,854,961 9,257,955 10,551,699 11,799,011




Table 2‐49 presents the available seats by type forecast in percentage terms to highlight the

vast share of BNA capacity that narrowbody and large RJ aircraft are anticipated to

accommodate by the end of the forecast period. By 2031 these two types are forecast to

account for over 90 percent of available seats, while the small and medium RJs’ share of

capacity decreases from just over 20 percent in 2011 to less than ten percent in 2031.

Table 2‐49 – Commercial Air Carrier Fleet Mix: Percent of Seats by Type

Aircraft Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Narrowbody 77.0% 75.9% 75.7% 77.2% 77.0%

Large RJ (over 70 seats) 6.7% 8.7% 13.0% 13.7% 13.7%

Medium RJ (70 seats) 2.0% 10.0% 11.3% 9.1% 9.3%

Small RJ (under 70 seats) 14.3% 5.4% ‐ ‐ ‐



2.7.3 CommercialAirCarrierLoadFactors

The projected level of air carrier capacity (available seats) based on operations and fleet mix

forecasts are combined with passenger enplanement projections to determine both future

average Seats per Departure and Average Boarding Load Factor. Table 2‐50 depicts the average

seats available per departure based upon the projected fleet mix, available seats, and forecast

enplanements. Despite a near continual increase in average seats per departure due to

increasing aircraft size, the forecast average boarding load factor is still projected to increase by

five percentage points by the end of the forecast period.

Table 2‐50 – Commercial Air Carrier Load Factor

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Average Seats per Departure 100 111 117 119 119

Annual Enplanements 4,806,092 5,835,700 6,929,300 8,190,000 9,658,600

Annual Available Seats 6,203,995 7,854,961 9,257,955 10,551,699 11,799,011

Average Boarding Load Factor 77% 74% 75% 78% 82%




2.7.4 AirCargoCarrierFleetMix

As with the commercial carrier fleet mix determination, the first step in determining the future

air cargo carrier fleet mix is identifying the overall market trends that will drive future air cargo

fleets, as well as aircraft mix decisions specific to each carrier anticipated to operate at the

Airport during the forecast period.

The 2011 aircraft fleet mix was used as the baseline for projecting cargo aircraft and operations

at BNA. The projected percentage used for cargo operations and volume (2.1 percent) was

carried forward to forecast the anticipated fleet mix. Additional assumptions used during this

forecast fleet mix exercise include:

In 2015, FedEx will begin replacing its Boeing B727F fleet with Boeing B757F aircraft.

By 2021, all remaining Boeing B727F aircraft will be replaced by Boeing B757F aircraft. The B757F offers increased fuel burn efficiency and greater capacity as compared to the B727.

Tables 2‐51 and 2‐52 present the projected air cargo carrier fleet mix for BNA in terms of

absolute numbers and relative percentages, respectively. At the end of the forecast period, the

Boeing B757F is expected to account for the most cargo operations at the Airport by a single

aircraft type at just over 66 percent of the total, followed by the A300 and A310 at just over 21

percent.

Table 2‐51 – Air Cargo Carrier Fleet Mix: Annual Operations by Type

Aircraft Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

A300/310 280 311 345 382 424

B727 275 146 ‐ ‐ ‐

B737 127 147 163 181 201

B757 609 830 1,081 1,195 1,328

DC‐8 18 21 26 28 31

DC‐10 1 2 3 4 4

MD‐10 3 3 4 4 5

MD‐11 2 3 4 4 4

Cessna 208 2 2 2 3 3

ATR‐72 3 3 4 4 5





Table 2‐52 – Air Cargo Carrier Fleet Mix: Percent of Annual Operations by Type

Aircraft Type 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

A300/310 21.2% 21.1% 21.1% 21.2% 21.2%

B727 20.8% 10.0% ‐ ‐ ‐

B737 9.6% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%

B757 46.1% 56.5% 66.3% 66.2% 66.2%

DC‐8 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

DC‐10 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

MD‐10 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

MD‐11 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Cessna 208 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

ATR‐72 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

Total Departures 100% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100%


2.8 PeakActivity

Commercial service airports experience peaks in enplanements, commercial carrier operations,

and total airport operations that will drive demand for differing areas of airport infrastructure.

For example, peak month‐average day (PMAD) airfield projections require that all aircraft

operations be considered, while passenger terminal facilities need only those operations

associated with commercial passenger activity. To properly plan, size, and design passenger

terminal facilities, an understanding of PMAD and peak hour enplanement demand is

necessary. The peak month, peak month‐average day, and peak hour forecasts are key

elements in defining the future facility requirements needed to accommodate above average

levels of utilization (i.e., peak activity). Therefore, each of these elements must be presented

separately; peak commercial carrier operations define the demand for airside facilities (gates

and ramp), while peak enplanements pose a direct impact on terminal (e.g., ticketing and

baggage claim) and landside (e.g., access roads and parking) facilities, and peak airport

operations determine runway capacity and airfield needs.

2.8.1 PeakMonth–AverageDay

The peak month is the calendar month of the year when the highest level of enplanements and

aircraft operations occur. Peak month‐average day is simply the total operations, or total

enplanements, divided by the number of days in the peak month. The projected peak month



levels of activity are a key component in the demand/capacity analysis used to determine

future capacity requirements.

In order to provide the necessary metrics for the demand/capacity analysis, PMAD is forecast

for the following:

Enplanements

Commercial Carrier Operations

Total Operations

2.8.1.1 Peak Month‐Average Day Enplanements

Terminal facilities are generally designed to accommodate enplanements on the average day

during the peak month, rather than the absolute peak level of activity. A review of historical

monthly enplanements and operations at BNA was performed in order to identify the peak

month for passenger activity. This evaluation reveals seasonal variations in passenger traffic

throughout the year, with peaks occurring during the summer months of June, July, and August,

and the strongest lulls occurring during the winter months of January and February. Using

MNAA records presented in Table 2‐53, it was determined that between 2007 through 2011,

the month of June averaged the highest level of enplanements over the five‐year period.

Table 2‐53 – Peak Month Enplanements: 2007 through 2011

Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 2007‐2011

Percent of Average

Enplanements

January 353,693 346,332 302,510 314,417 338,375 331,065 7.1%

February 342,528 351,727 295,740 296,572 313,423 319,998 6.8%

March 424,995 415,692 374,657 375,893 411,686 400,585 8.5%

April 407,680 405,083 371,842 373,612 397,492 391,142 8.3%

May 460,371 442,692 402,494 394,387 452,284 430,446 9.2%

June 468,447 444,645 427,324 424,451 449,005 442,774 9.4%

July 457,623 437,475 436,164 434,190 437,850 440,660 9.4%

August 420,572 385,286 376,724 383,918 400,428 393,386 8.4%

September 378,651 342,672 355,753 370,553 391,426 367,811 7.8%

October 430,157 407,614 407,496 424,035 436,385 421,137 9.0%

November 400,487 348,954 360,321 374,529 393,242 375,507 8.0%

December 386,669 364,394 371,546 375,484 384,496 376,518 8.0%

Total 4,931,873 4,692,566 4,482,571 4,542,041 4,806,092 4,691,029 100%

Note: June averaged a slightly greater percentage of enplanements as compared to July. Source: MNAA, RW Armstrong, 2012.



As the previous table shows, June averaged 442,774 enplanements, equating to 9.4 percent of

the total annual passengers over this timeframe. The forecast for BNA peak month and peak

month‐average day enplanements, presented in Table 2‐54, uses a constant 9.4 percent of total

annual enplanements for the month through the forecast period.

Table 2‐54 – Peak Month: Average Day Enplanement Forecast

Year Enplanements Peak Month Percent

Peak Month Enplanements

Peak Month Average Day

2011 4,806,092 9.4% 453,630 15,120

2016 5,835,700 9.4% 550,820 18,360

2021 6,929,300 9.4% 654,040 21,800

2026 8,190,000 9.4% 773,030 25,770

2031 9,658,600 9.4% 911,650 30,390


2.8.1.2 Peak Month‐Average Day Commercial Carrier Operations

The PMAD for commercial carrier operations is calculated in the same manner as PMAD for

enplanements. A review of historic monthly commercial carrier operations at the Airport is

conducted to determine the calendar month when the highest level of aircraft activity occurs.

Unlike enplanements, the analysis reveals limited variation in carrier operations, with only

February dipping below the eight percent share of annual traffic threshold. Historic monthly

operations data, displayed in Table 2‐55, shows July as the peak month for commercial carrier

operations over the five‐year period.

July averaged 11,297 operations, equating to 8.8 percent of the total average annual operations

over this timeframe. The forecast for BNA peak month and PMAD carrier operations, presented

in Table 2‐56, uses a constant 8.8 percent ratio for the month through the forecast period.



Table 2‐55 – Peak Month Commercial Carrier Operations: 2007 through 2011

Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 2007‐2011

Percent of Average

Operations

January 11,938 11,366 10,148 9,790 9,744 10,597 8.2%

February 10,680 10,413 9,334 8,700 8,826 9,591 7.5%

March 12,216 11,316 10,466 9,586 10,568 10,830 8.4%

April 11,698 11,316 10,472 10,004 10,352 10,768 8.4%

May 12,012 11,496 10,670 10,218 10,786 11,036 8.6%

June 11,528 11,252 10,934 10,592 10,626 10,986 8.5%

July 11,868 11,506 11,328 10,868 10,916 11,297 8.8%

August 12,030 11,728 10,934 10,710 10,766 11,234 8.7%

September 11,194 10,608 10,086 10,328 10,168 10,477 8.1%

October 11,774 11,202 10,668 10,762 10,736 11,028 8.6%

November 11,588 10,332 10,038 10,074 10,120 10,430 8.1%

December 11,452 10,378 10,124 9,914 10,364 10,446 8.1%

Total 139,978 132,913 125,202 121,546 123,972 128,722 100%


Table 2‐56 – Peak Month: Average Day Commercial Carrier Operations

Year Annual Airline Operations

Peak Month Percent

Peak Month Airline

Operations Peak Month Average Day

2011 123,972 8.8% 10,880 360

2016 140,990 8.8% 12,370 410

2021 158,020 8.8% 13,870 460

2026 176,980 8.8% 15,530 520

2031 198,270 8.8% 17,400 580


2.8.1.3 Peak Month‐Average Day Total Airport Operations

PMAD for all Airport operations (commercial carrier, GA, cargo, and military) are calculated in

same manner as the previous PMAD analyses. The historic monthly operations for BNA,

detailed in Table 2‐57, yields October as the peak month with 8.7 percent of total operations.



Table 2‐57 – Peak Month Total Airport Operations: 2007 through 2011

Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 2007‐2011

Percent of Average

Operations

January 17,958 16,179 14,098 13,718 13,407 15,072 8.1%

February 16,568 15,192 13,334 12,502 12,499 14,019 7.6%

March 18,602 16,457 14,695 14,099 15,023 15,775 8.5%

April 17,689 16,467 14,748 14,522 14,705 15,626 8.4%

May 18,485 16,241 14,882 14,653 15,268 15,906 8.6%

June 17,474 16,222 15,260 14,761 15,155 15,775 8.5%

July 17,386 16,520 15,535 14,971 15,134 15,909 8.6%

August 18,020 16,706 15,048 14,971 15,479 16,045 8.7%

September 16,989 15,323 14,233 14,828 14,543 15,183 8.2%

October 18,213 16,112 15,354 15,322 15,282 16,057 8.7%

November 17,623 14,569 14,590 14,335 14,388 15,101 8.2%

December 16,197 14,247 14,025 13,793 14,111 14,474 7.8%

Total 211,204 190,237 175,803 172,474 174,992 184,942 100%


The forecast for BNA peak month and PMAD total Airport operations, presented in Table 2‐58,

uses a constant 8.7 percent ratio for the month through the forecast period.

Table 2‐58 – Peak Month: Average Day Airport Operations Forecast

Year Annual Total Operations

Peak Month Percent

Peak Month Operations

Peak Month Average Day

2011 174,992 8.7% 15,193 506

2016 204,590 8.7% 17,760 590

2021 227,330 8.7% 19,740 660

2026 252,620 8.7% 21,930 730

2031 280,950 8.7% 24,390 810


2.8.2 PeakHourOperationsandEnplanements

The peak hour refers to the highest number of hourly operations and enplanements during the

PMAD. This metric is used extensively in terminal facility planning and forms the basis for

identifying any potential capacity issues. Air carrier peak hour operations and enplanements are



determined using airline schedules. Hourly GA and military operations data were extracted

from BNA ATCT data to determine peak hour operations for these categories. The peak hour for

commercial activity is between 6:30 and 7:30pm when there are 19 scheduled departures (38

total operations assuming the arrivals for the next bank of pm flights), and approximately 1,900

available seats. Assuming the average load factor of 75.5 percent in 2011, peak hour

enplanements are estimated at 1,434.

Peak hour total Airport operations are a function of peak hour commercial carrier activity

coupled with the GA/military operations conducted during the 6:60 to 7:30pm time period.

Though this time period does not directly correspond with the actual hourly peak in GA/military

activity (approximately 2:00 to 3:00pm accounting for 9.1 percent of non‐carrier operations),

the percentage of operations occurring in the 6:30 to 7:30pm period (5.6 percent of non‐carrier

operations) is sufficient to maintain that time period as the peak hour for total Airport

operations.

Table 2‐59 displays projected peak hour enplanements and operations throughout the forecast

period. Both peak hour enplanements and operations maintain their 2011 percentage of PMAD

ratio through the forecast period, while enplanements are also adjusted based on projected

increases in load factors.

Table 2‐59 – Projected Peak Hour Operations

Enplanements Commercial Carrier

Operations Total Airport Operations

Year PMAD Peak Hour PMAD Peak Hour PMAD Peak Hour

2011 15,120 1,434 360 38 506 46

2016 18,360 1,710 410 43 590 54

2021 21,800 2,040 460 49 660 60

2026 25,770 2,490 520 55 730 67

2031 30,390 3,090 580 61 810 74

Source: MNAA, OAG, BNA ATCT, RW Armstrong, 2012.

2.9 ForecastofTerminalVehicleActivity

The forecast growth in passenger enplanements impacts operational activities beyond airside

needs and passenger terminal demands. The terminal curbside (or terminal roadway) is the first

interface most passengers have with the passenger terminal, and as such, terminal roadway

volume and capacity is directly tied to projected passenger activity. Traffic levels along the

terminal roadway and entrance/exit points are forecast based on peak enplanement levels

presented in the previous section. Based on MNAA‐provided traffic counts, the relationship



between enplanements and vehicles will be defined and forecasted for annual total, PMAD, and

peak hour.

2.9.1 TerminalRoadVehicleTrafficForecast

Traffic counts for the Airport were conducted at the entrance of the terminal roadway and

comprise all Airport terminal traffic, including pick‐up and drop‐off for both private and

commercial vehicles. These annualized counts, presented in Table 2‐60, provide the ratio of

vehicles to enplanements that will be used to develop the vehicle traffic forecast. Annual

terminal curb vehicles outnumber enplanements by a ratio of 1.4 vehicles per enplanement.

Note that this number also includes vehicles picking up arriving passengers as well as any other

ancillary traffic that may be transiting the roadway. For forecasting purposes, however, all

terminal roadway traffic is deemed to be a function of enplanements and, subsequently,

enplanement levels will drive the vehicle forecast.

Table 2‐60 – 2011 Terminal Curb Traffic

Annual Vehicles: 6,704,835

Average Daily Vehicles: 18,369

Enplanements: 4,806,092

Vehicles per Enplanement: 1.4


The vehicles‐per‐enplanement ratio is applied to the BNA annual enplanement forecast to

determine the estimated annual vehicle count. The results are shown in Table 2‐61.

Table 2‐61 – Terminal Curb Annual Vehicle Traffic Forecast

Year Enplanements Vehicles per Enplanement

TerminalVehicles

2011 4,806,092 1.4 6,704,835

2016 5,835,700 1.4 8,141,200

2021 6,929,300 1.4 9,666,900

2026 8,190,000 1.4 11,425,600

2031 9,658,600 1.4 13,474,400




Finally, PMAD and peak hour vehicle traffic are forecast using the vehicles per enplanement

ratio applied to forecasted PMAD and peak hour enplanement levels. The resulting forecasts of

vehicle are presented in Table 2‐62.

Table 2‐62 – Terminal Curb PMAD and Peak Hour Vehicle Traffic Forecast

Year PMAD

Enplanements Peak Hour

Enplanements Vehicles per Enplanement

PMAD Vehicles

Peak Hour Vehicles

2011 15,120 1,434 1.4 21,090 2,000

2016 18,360 1,706 1.4 25,610 2,380

2021 21,800 2,040 1.4 30,410 2,850

2026 25,770 2,492 1.4 35,950 3,480

2031 30,390 3,092 1.4 42,400 4,310


The ultimate use of these figures will be to determine the necessary terminal curbside

infrastructure and capacity relative to peak hour enplanements. This analysis, along with

multiple other demand/capacity, throughput, and infrastructure needs analyses, based on the

anticipated demand presented in the preferred forecast, will be addressed in the facility

requirements chapter of the Master Plan Update.

2.10 JohnC.TuneAirportForecast

The following sections present a market share and econometric forecast for based aircraft and

operations at John C. Tune Airport (JWN). The forecast methodologies and assumptions follow

those used for the BNA activity forecasts; however, the catchment area for JWN consists of

Davidson, Cheatham, and Williamson counties rather than the 13‐county Nashville MSA. The

smaller, three‐county area is used to more accurately gauge the population growth factors

projected in JWN’s catchment area. Table 2‐63 and Figure 2‐4 provide the population growth

comparisons for the three‐county area, the State, and the nation.



Table 2‐63 – Population Trend Comparison (000)

Year

Davidson Cheatham Williamson

Annual Growth Tennessee

Annual Growth

United States

Annual Growth

2000 734.5 ‐ 5,703 ‐ 282,172 ‐

2005 797.7 1.7% 5,983 1.0% 295,561 0.9%

2010 867.8 1.7% 6,354 1.2% 310,063 1.0%

AAGR 2000‐2010

1.7%

1.1%

0.9%

2011 883.2 1.8% 6,423 1.1% 313,071 1.0%

2016 961.2 2.1% 6,780 1.3% 328,569 1.2%

2021 1,040.7 1.6% 7,147 1.1% 344,573 1.0%

2026 1,121.2 1.5% 7,520 1.0% 360,843 0.9%

2031 1,201.8 1.4% 7,895 1.0% 377,218 0.9%

AAGR 2011‐2031

1.6%

1.0%

0.9%

AAGR ‐ Average Annual Growth Rate.Source: 2012 Woods & Poole Economics.

As shown in the table and the following figure, the JWN catchment area exhibits strong growth

characteristics compared to the State and nation.

Figure 2‐4 – Historic and Projected Population Growth Rates




Table 2‐64 presents the JWN TAF. Note that the TAF predicts no growth at JWN and the

majority of historic data shows no growth. Therefore, the TAF is not considered to be an

accurate reflection of past or projected growth. The preferred forecast used for JWN projects is

provided within the following section.

Table 2‐64 – JWN Terminal Area Forecast


Year Based Aircraft GA Military Total GA Military Total

Total Ops

2000 131 25,975 ‐ 25,975 40,000 25 40,025 66,000

2005 131 25,975 ‐ 25,975 40,000 25 40,025 66,000

2010 165 18,916 ‐ 18,916 54,058 24 54,082 72,998

AAGR 2000‐2010

2.3% ‐3.1%

‐3.1%

3.1% ‐0.4% 3.1% 1.0%

2011 165 18,916 ‐ 18,916 54,058 24 54,082 72,998

2016 165 18,916 ‐ 18,916 54,058 24 54,082 72,998

2021 165 18,916 ‐ 18,916 54,058 24 54,082 72,998

2026 165 18,916 ‐ 18,916 54,058 24 54,082 72,998

2031 165 18,916 ‐ 18,916 54,058 24 54,082 72,998

AAGR 2010‐2031

‐ ‐

‐

‐ ‐ ‐ ‐

AAGR ‐ Average Annual Growth Rate. Source: 2011 FAA TAF for JWN.

Table 2‐65 provides the 2011 based aircraft count provided by the MNAA and will serve as the

baseline count for the forecasts.

Table 2‐65 – JWN Based Aircraft – 2011


Percent of Total

Single Engine 127 77.9%


Turbo‐Prop 8 4.9%

Jet 7 4.3%

Rotorcraft 4 2.5%

Total 163 100%

Source: MNAA.



2.10.1 MarketShareForecast

The market share forecast methodology assumes that JWN based aircraft and operations will

grow at the national rate, maintaining its relative share of the national general aviation fleet

and operations through the forecast period. For based aircraft projections, each aircraft type

will grow at the projected rate indicated in Table 2‐66, which presents the national general

aviation fleet growth rates as projected in the FAA Aerospace Forecast, FY2011‐2031.

Table 2‐66 – FAA Aircraft Growth Rate by Aircraft Type

Period Single Engine

Multi‐Engine Piston Turbo‐Prop Jet Rotorcraft

2011‐2016 ‐0.4% ‐0.9% 1.3% 4.1% 2.6%

2017‐2021 0.1% ‐0.9% 1.4% 4.3% 2.8%

2022‐2026 0.6% ‐0.8% 1.4% 4.2% 2.6%

2027‐2031 0.8% ‐0.8% 1.4% 4.2% 2.4%

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031.

The FAA forecast factors for general aviation aircraft are applied to the 2011 JWN based aircraft

count to arrive at the based aircraft market share forecast presented in Table 2‐67.

Table 2‐67 – JWN Market Share Forecast ‐ Based Aircraft

Year Single Engine

Multi‐Engine Piston Turbo Prop Jet Rotorcraft Total

2011 127 17 8 7 4 163

2016 128 16 9 9 5 167

2021 132 16 9 11 5 173

2026 137 15 10 13 6 181

2031 145 14 11 16 7 193

AAGR 2011‐2031

0.7% ‐1.0% 1.6% 4.2% 2.8% 0.8%

Source: MNAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2011‐2031, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Table 2‐68 presents the JWN AAGR market share operations forecast based on the national TAF

growth rates for general aviation and military operations. Again, the national average growth

was applied to 2011 JWN baseline operations counts to reflect a constant market share of

national activity through the forecast period.



Table 2‐68 – JWN Market Share Forecast – Operations



Total Ops

2011 163 18,816 0 18,816 54,021 24 54,045 72,860

2016 167 19,420 0 19,420 56,850 24 56,870 76,290

2021 173 20,070 0 20,070 59,750 24 59,770 79,840

2026 181 20,762 0 20,760 62,930 24 62,950 83,710

2031 193 21,363 0 21,360 65,690 24 65,710 87,070

Source: John C. Tune Airport, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2011‐2031, RW Armstrong.

Table 2‐69 compares the market share forecast to the JWN TAF forecast. By the end of the

forecast period, projected based aircraft will be 17 percent above what is predicted in the TAF,

while operations are expected to be nearly 19 percent above the TAF estimates.

Table 2‐69 – JWN Market Share Forecast compared to TAF


Year TAF Market Share

Market Share vs.

TAF TAF Market Share Market Share

vs. TAF

2011 165 163 ‐1% 72,998 72,860 0%

2016 165 167 1% 72,998 76,290 5%

2021 165 173 5% 72,998 79,840 9%

2026 165 181 10% 72,998 83,710 15%

2031 165 193 17% 72,998 87,070 19%

AAGR 2011‐2031

‐ 0.8% ‐ 0.9%

Source: 2011 FAA Terminal Area Forecast, Aerospace Forecast FY 2011‐2031, RW Armstrong.

2.10.2 EconometricForecast

When developing forecasts, the econometric forecasting methodology relies on the

examination of several area socioeconomic factors, such as population, income, and

employment, to determine a proper method for projecting growth. Based on socioeconomic

factors examined within the BNA forecast, a growth rate to account for the JWN catchment

area’s above‐average population growth was developed.

This population‐based econometric forecast adjusts FAA growth factors provided in the FAA

Aerospace Forecast, FY2011‐2031 and the FAA national TAF. This results in adjusted growth



factors for the based aircraft and operations forecasts to reflect projected growth in the JWN’s

catchment area. The FAA Aerospace Forecasts for the general aviation fleet required the

identification of the percentage of incremental population resulting from the above‐average

growth, and applying the difference to the FAA national growth factors. It is through this

methodology that JWN‐specific growth rates for based aircraft were derived and applied to the

based aircraft forecast. The adjusted JWN general aviation fleet growth factors are provided in

Table 2‐70.

Table 2‐70 – Adjusted Aircraft Growth Rate by Type

Period Single Engine

Multi‐Engine Piston Turbo Prop Jet Rotorcraft

2011‐2016 0.9% ‐0.5% 3.1% 5.9% 5.3%

2017‐2021 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 4.8% 0.6%

2022‐2026 1.3% ‐0.7% 2.7% 4.0% 4.3%

2027‐2031 1.6% ‐0.9% 2.4% 4.8% 3.6%

Source: FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

The adjusted general aviation fleet growth rates were applied to the 2011 based aircraft counts

for JWN. Table 2‐71 presents the based aircraft econometric forecast. In total, the based

aircraft count is expected to increase to 218 aircraft by the end of the forecast period,

representing a 34 percent increase.

Table 2‐71 – Based Aircraft: JWN Econometric Forecast

Year Single Engine

Multi‐Engine Piston Turbo Prop Jet Rotorcraft Total

2011 127 17 8 7 4 163

2016 133 17 9 9 5 173

2021 141 17 10 12 5 185

2026 151 17 11 14 7 200

2031 164 16 12 18 8 218

Source: MNAA, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Using the same population growth adjustments applied to the based aircraft forecast, the

national growth rates for general aviation operations were revised and applied to baseline

operations. Table 2‐72 provides the JWN econometric forecast for general aviation and military

operations.



Table 2‐72 – GA and Military Operations: JWN Econometric Forecast



Total Ops

2011 163 18,816 ‐ 18,816 54,021 24 54,045 72,860

2016 173 20,140 ‐ 20,140 58,960 24 58,980 79,120

2021 185 21,490 ‐ 21,490 63,970 24 63,990 85,480

2026 200 22,870 ‐ 22,870 69,310 24 69,330 92,200

2031 218 24,130 ‐ 24,130 74,190 24 74,210 98,340

Source: John C. Tune Airport, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY 2011‐2031, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

Table 2‐73 compares the econometric forecast to the JWN TAF forecast. By the end of the

forecast period, projected based aircraft are expected to be 32 percent above what is predicted

in the TAF, while the combined general aviation and military operations are expected to be

approximately 35 percent above the TAF estimates.

Table 2‐73 – JWN Econometric Forecast vs. TAF


Year TAF Econometric Econometric

vs. TAF TAF Econometric Econometric

vs. TAF

2011 165 163 ‐1% 72,998 72,860 ‐

2016 165 173 5% 72,998 79,116 8%

2021 165 185 12% 72,998 85,484 17%

2026 165 200 21% 72,998 92,202 26%

2031 165 218 32% 72,998 98,339 35%

AAGR 2011‐2031

‐ 1.5%

‐ 1.5%

Source: FAA TAF, FAA Aerospace Forecast FY2011‐2031, Woods & Poole Economics, RW Armstrong, 2012.

2.10.3 PreferredJohnC.TuneAirportForecastFor planning purposes, it is recommended that the econometric forecast for based aircraft and

operations be used as the preferred forecast. This forecast methodology, shown in Tables 2‐71

through 3‐73, used FAA‐provided national growth rates that were moderately adjusted to

reflect the socioeconomic conditions of the catchment area. As shown in Table 2‐73, this

methodology results in an AAGR of 1.5 percent for based aircraft and aircraft operations. This

incremental growth represents a based aircraft projection that exceeds the TAF by 32 percent

at the end of the forecast period, and an aircraft operations projection that exceeds the TAF by

35 percent at the end of the forecast period. This can be attributed to the fact that the TAF

predicts no growth at JWN and is therefore not considered to be a reliable source.

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2 Forecasts of Aviation Demand - Welcome to the Nashville ... · The NEM forecasts prepared in 2010...

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