2 Kevin Stone - FIRT 2016 - Potash... · 2017. 1. 16. · 8 © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of...

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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2016

Potash OutlookKevin Stone

Natural Resources Canada

TFI Fertilizer Outlook and Technology ConferenceFort Lauderdale, FloridaNovember 16, 2016

2


Outline

Historical Consumption and Supply

Outlook for Demand and Supply

Demand Fundamentals Major Consuming Countries Major Suppliers Summary

3


Historical Potash Consumption and Supply

4


Historical Consumption

22,095 22,855 23,398

26,148 27,654

25,967 26,674

28,793

24,358

22,535

27,294 28,837 29,262

30,495

32,294 32,325

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000

tonn

es K

2O

World Potash Consumption (000 t K2O)

Sources: IFA, NRCan

5


Historical Production

25,874 25,859 26,468 27,967

31,167 32,794

29,426

33,531 32,498

19,126

31,767

34,372 32,048

33,610

38,628 38,908

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

000

tonn

es K

2O

World Potash Production (000 t K2O)

Sources: IFA, NRCan

6


Supply Exceeded Consumption

3,779 3,004 3,071

1,818

3,513

6,826

2,752

4,738

8,140

‐3,408

4,473

5,535

2,786 3,195

6,334 6,583

‐4,000

‐2,000

‐

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 tonn

es K2O

World Potash Supply/Use Balance (000 t K2O)

Sources: IFA, NRCan

7


Outlook for Demand and Supply

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Demand Outlook

32,700 33,700 34,700 35,600 36,500

6,200 6,300 6,400 6,500

6,700

‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 t K

2O

Demand Forecast (000 t K2O)

Demand for Fertilizer Demand for Industrial UseSources: IFA, NRCan

9


Supply Outlook

56,000 58,100

61,600 62,100 64,500

42,800 44,900

47,200 49,700 51,000

36,600 38,600

40,800 43,200 44,300

‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 t K

2O

Potential Supply (000 t K2O)

Capacity Supply Available for FertilizerSources: IFA, NRCan

10


Forecast Oversupply

36,600 38,600

40,800 43,200 44,300

32,700 33,700 34,700 35,600

36,500

‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 tonn

es K2O

Demand/Supply Balance for Fertilizer Use (000 t K2O)

Supply for Fertilizer Demand for FertilizerSources: IFA, NRCan

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Actual Oversupply and Forecast

3,779 3,004 3,071

1,818

3,513

6,826

2,752

4,738

8,140

‐3,408

4,473

5,535

2,786 3,195

6,334 6,583

3,900

4,900

6,100

7,600 7,800

‐4,000

‐2,000

‐

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Oversupply Forecast (000 t K2O)

Sources: IFA, NRCan

Forecast

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Demand Fundamentals

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Population Growth

2.52.8

3.03.3

3.74.1

4.44.8

5.35.7

6.16.5

6.97.3

7.88.1

8.58.8

9.29.5

9.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Bill

ion

World Population Growth (billion)

Source: UN

Forecast

14


World Arable Land

1,220

1,240

1,260

1,280

1,300

1,320

1,340

1,360

1,380

1,400

1,420

1,440

196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013

Million he

ctares

World Arable Land (million hectares)

Source: FAO

15


Arable Land Per Person

Source: World Bank

‐

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013

Hectares

Hectares of Arable Land Per Person

World Average Arable Land per Person China India Brazil USA

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Potash Use by Crop

Cereals: Wheat, Rice, Corn and Others

37%

Oilseeds: Soybean, Oil Palm and Others

20%

Fruits and Vegetables20%

Other Crops15%

Sugar Crops8%

Global Potash Use by Crops, 2010/11

Source: IFA

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Grain Production

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

mill

ion

tonn

es

World Grain Production (million tonnes)

Wheat and Coarse Grain Rice MilledSource: USDA

Forecast

18


Fruit and Vegetables Production

‐

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

196119631965196719691971197319751977197919811983198519871989199119931995199719992001200320052007200920112013

million tonn

es

World Fruit and Vegetables Production (million tonnes)

Vegetables and Melons Fruit Excluding Melons Citrus FruitSource: FAO

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Oilseeds Production

261287 295

304 314325 332

338

384 394406

392 400

447461

447475

504

537519

534

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

mill

ion

tonn

es

World Oilseeds Production (million tonnes)

Source: USDA

Forecast

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Major Consuming Countries

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China

Sources: FAO, IFA

‐

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

tonn

es K2O

Production, Imports and Consumption (000 t K2O)

Production Imports Consumption

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China – Demand/Supply Outlook

Sources: FAO, IFA

‐

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 t K

2O

Forecast: Production, Imports and Demand (000 t K2O)

Production Imports Demand

Forecast

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United States

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 t K

2O


Production Imports ConsumptionSources: FAO, IFA

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Brazil

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 t K

2O


Production Imports Consumption

Sources: FAO, IFA

25


India

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 t K

2O

Imports and Consumption (000 t K2O)

Imports ConsumptionSources: FAO, IFA

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http://www.potash4life.com/films/the‐power‐of‐potash/

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Malaysia and Indonesia

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 t K

2O

Imports and Consumption (000 t K2O)

Imports ConsumptionSources: FAO, IFA

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Major Suppliers

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Canada

8,361

9,229

10,332 10,140

8,518

11,085 10,379

4,297

9,700

10,686

8,976

10,196 10,818

11,350

8,455 8,515

9,648 9,684

8,333

10,591 10,121

4,176

9,443

10,404

8,606

9,829 10,602

10,967

‐

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e

000 t K

2O

Production and Exports (000 t K2O)

Production ExportsSources: NRCan

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Forecast Methodology:Potential production is

based on average of the actual operating rates in

the last five years.

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Canada - Supply Outlook

17,633 19,000

22,003 22,558 22,558 22,558 22,558

10,818 11,350

5,155

12,688 13,847

17,074 17,505 17,505 17,505 17,505

11,638 12,540

14,522 14,888 14,888 14,888 14,888

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 t K

2O

Capacity and Production Potential (000 t K2O)

Capacity Actual Production Capability Production Potential

65%

Sources: NRCan

32


Russia

4,432 4,653

5,599

6,266 5,724

6,373 5,935

3,691

6,128 6,526

5,460 6,000

7,260 6,840

3,227 3,732

4,570

5,325 4,989

5,403 5,159

2,643

5,021 5,460

4,382 4,815

6,221

5,493

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 t K

2O


Production Exports

Sources: IFA, NRCan

33


Russia - Supply Outlook

7,470

6,125 6,665

9,810 9,810 9,510 9,510

7,260

6,125 6,000

8,829 8,829 8,559 8,559

‐

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 t K

2O


Capacity Actual Production Production Potential

90%

Sources: NRCan

34


Belarus

37814 229

4 6124 928

4 6054 972 4 968

2 485

5 223 5 306

4 774

4 179

6 202 6 297

32833 735

4 143 4 121 3 9634 391

3 936

1 788

4 137

4 719

3 6083 418

5 685 5 513

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 t K

2O


Production ExportsSources: IFA, NRCan

35


Belarus - Supply Outlook

7,600 7,620 7,680 7,740 7,800

8,800 8,800

6,202 6,297 6,374 6,424 6,474

7,304 7,304

‐

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 t K

2O



83%

Sources: NRCan

36


ICL

1,918 1,958 2,138 2,224 2,123 2,146 2,134

2,466 2,551 2,556

2,962 3,094 3,086

2,517

1,752 1,872 1,897 1,844

1,346

2,052 1,821

1,537

3,160

2,812 2,734

2,313

2,643

2,248

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 t K

2O


Production ExportsSources: IFA, NRCan

37


ICL - Supply Outlook

3,829 3,840 3,851 3,862 3,884 3,884 3,884

3,086

2,518

2,850 2,858 2,874 2,874 2,874

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 t K

2O



74%

Sources: NRCan

38


Germany

3,626 3,565 3,626 3,665 3,616 3,619

3,285

1,789

2,962 3,106 3,056 2,968 3,053 3,055

2,868 2,981 3,025 2,980 3,015 3,033

2,523

1,585

2,443 2,502 2,730 2,784 2,642 2,715

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

000 t K

2O


Production K2O ExportsSources: IFA, NRCan

39


Germany - Supply Outlook

4,250 4,250

3,650 3,650 3,650 3,650 3,650

3,053 3,055

2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628 2,628

‐

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

000 t K

2O



72%

Sources: NRCan

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Summary

Demand is projected to grow at a slow pace of 2.3% per year between 2016 and 2020

Supply growth is projected to increase at 2.5% per year for the same period

Capacity is projected to grow at 4.5% per year between 2016 and 2020

Global operating rate is forecast to be lower than 80% per year between 2016 and 2020 (86% in 2010-15)

Oversupply is projected to follow the historical trend

Bottom line is both demand and supply will grow, but just at slower pace

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Contact

Kevin StoneSenior AdvisorMineral and Metal SectorNatural Resources CanadaTelephone: +1 343-292-8732Email: [email protected]

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2 Kevin Stone - FIRT 2016 - Potash... · 2017. 1. 16. · 8 © Her Majesty the Queen in Right of...

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