2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

SWIMIC: Solar Wind Monitoring and Induction Modelling for Induced Currents

SDA Objectives

To build on service developed for Scottish Power plc in 1999:

GIC monitoring data

Magnetic Activity Forecasts

To add new relevant functions for grid management

Solar Wind shock monitor (as geomagnetic storm precursor)

Model GIC flow everywhere in the Scottish power grid (in addition to measurements made at 4 sites)

Alan Thomson, Allan McKay, Ellen Clarke, Sarah Reay, Orsi Baillie

2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

SWIMIC: User Needs

Questionnaire sent to Scottish Power- to add to knowledge built up from existing contract

- engineers backed planned development

Main Needs: ‘Big Picture’Real-time geomagnetic monitoring data for GIC confirmation. At 15 minute update.

Daily magnetic activity forecast to 3 days ahead. Existing service basically OK.

Solar wind shock monitor for warning of magnetic storm onset. Since any accurate and advance warning is ideal. Would prefer to know hours ahead of storms.

Scottish Power grid network model and estimated GIC in the grid. Keen to know what’s happening anywhere in the grid at any time. What’s the long term risk?

Measured and Grid Modelled GIC

2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

SWIMIC: User Satisfaction

1. Based on discussions and a questionnaire completed by Scottish Power and National Grid engineers:SWIMIC is easy to use, intuitive.

Would like more science background

Would like a complete UK grid

Would like ‘forensic analysis’ rapidly on-line for major storms in progress

2. Science Benefit: BGS ViewAllowed construction of a ‘state of the art’ system, complete with model accuracies and with identification of limitations or potential for users.

Papers, presentations, public profile. Real Time Geomagnetic Monitoring Data

2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

SWIMIC: Service Sustainability and Business Plan1st YearAdapt to recent UK power market changes.

Make minor adjustments in service (NB: SWIMIC benefits from existing real time processing set up for observatories, development work ~100keuro).

Interface with

Subsequent YearsUse SWIMIC as an industry ‘state of art demonstrator’ of capability?

Would like an ‘industry champion’ to promote within power industry.

Possibly need European consortium of users to share costs of service. Since …

Single user for current system ~20-30keuro (because need quality, real time, observatory data).

NB: UK government supports UK magnetic observatory operations ~150keuro, and BGS is not-for-profit government institute.

Real Time Shock Detector

2nd European Space Weather Week, November 2005

© NERC All rights reserved

SWIMIC: Prospects for ImprovementsMidterm ReviewIn ~18 months

Update models: e.g. new grid layout

Check model accuracy statistics

Sustainability in Longer TermAny developments will depend on other studies/contract work.

Add a predictive element to service, giving more advance warning of GIC. Difficult!

Extend grid across UK for new grid operator.

Or, integrate with European wide grid model?

Add rapid “forensic analysis” of storms/GIC

Build an online historical database.

Higher level of quality controlled solar wind data for shock monitor would increase reliability. Real Time GIC Estimates