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January 2002 1 Printed in Austria by Ueberreuter Print and Digimedia Publishers Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Obere Donau- strasse 93, 1020 Vienna, Austria. Telephone: +43 1 211 12/0; Telefax: +43 1 216 4320; Public Relations & Information Department fax: +43 1 214 9827. E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: OPEC News Agency: [email protected] Web site: http://www.opec.org. Hard copy subscription: $70/12 issues. Membership and aims OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental Or- ganization, established in Baghdad, September 10–14, 1960, by IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Its objective is to co- ordinate and unify petroleum policies among Member Countries, in order to secure fair and stable prices for petroleum producers; an effi- cient, economic and regular supply of petro- leum to consuming nations; and a fair return on capital to those investing in the industry. The Organization comprises the five Founding Members and six other Full Mem- bers: Qatar (joined in 1961); Indonesia (1962); SP Libyan AJ (1962); United Arab Emirates (Abu Dhabi, 1967); Algeria (1969); and Nigeria (1971). Ecuador joined the Organiza- tion in 1973 and left in 1992; Gabon joined in 1975 and left in 1995. Secretariat officials Secretary General Dr Alí Rodríguez Araque Director, Research Division Dr Adnan Shihab-Eldin Head, Energy Studies Department Dr Rezki Lounnas Head, Petroleum Market Analysis Department Javad Yarjani Head, Data Services Department Dr Muhammad A Al Tayyeb Head, PR & Information Department Farouk U Muhammed, mni Head, Administration & Human Resources Department Senussi J Senussi Head, Office of the Secretary General Karin Chacin Legal Officer Dolores Dobarro Web site Visit the OPEC Web site for the latest news and information about the Organization and its Member Countries. The URL is http://www.opec.org This month’s cover ... shows an Orimulsion plant in Venezuela, which is building a new unit to produce the power plant fuel for supply to China (see Newsline beginning on page 9). Photo courtesy PDVSA. 2 NOTICEBOARD Forthcoming conferences and other events 3 COMMENTARY La grande illusion The failure of the Enron collapse to rattle energy markets shows that efforts to promote stability are on track 4 FORUM The outlook for international crude oil demand and supply By Dr Alí Rodríguez Araque, OPEC Secretary General 2 7 INTERVIEW Former Director of OPEC’s Research Division, HE Dr Shokri Ghanem, is appointed Libyan Minister of Trade 2 9 NEWSLINE Energy stories concerning OPEC and developing countries 17 MARKET REVIEW Oil market monitoring report for December 2001 34 MEMBER COUNTRY FOCUS Financial and development news about OPEC Countries 39 OPEC FUND NEWS Recent loans and grants made by the OPEC Fund 41 GENERAL INDEX 2001 Subject index 43 Authors’ index 45 45 SECRETARIAT NOTES OPEC Secretariat activities 47 ADVERTISING RATES How to advertise in this magazine 48 ORDER FORM Publications: subscriptions and single orders Indexed and abstracted in PAIS International Vol XXXIII, No 1 ISSN 0474-6279 January 2002
Transcript
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January 2002 1

Printed in Austria by Ueberreuter Print and Digimedia

P u b l i s h e r sOrganization of the PetroleumExporting Countries, Obere Donau-strasse 93, 1020 Vienna, Austria.

Telephone: +43 1 211 12/0;Telefax: +43 1 216 4320;Public Relations & InformationDepartment fax: +43 1 214 9827.E-mail: [email protected]: OPEC News Agency: [email protected] site: http://www.opec.org.Hard copy subscription: $70/12 issues.

M e m b e r s h i p a n d a i m sOPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental Or-ganization, established in Baghdad, September10–14, 1960, by IR Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, SaudiArabia and Venezuela. Its objective is to co-ordinate and unify petroleum policies amongMember Countries, in order to secure fair andstable prices for petroleum producers; an effi-cient, economic and regular supply of petro-leum to consuming nations; and a fair returnon capital to those investing in the industry.

The Organization comprises the fiveFounding Members and six other Full Mem-bers: Qatar (joined in 1961); Indonesia (1962);SP Libyan AJ (1962); United Arab Emirates(Abu Dhabi, 1967); Algeria (1969); andNigeria (1971). Ecuador joined the Organiza-tion in 1973 and left in 1992; Gabon joined in1975 and left in 1995.

S e c r e t a r i a t o f f i c i a l sSecretary General Dr Alí Rodríguez Araque

Director,Research Division Dr Adnan Shihab-Eldin

Head,Energy Studies Department Dr Rezki Lounnas

Head, Petroleum MarketAnalysis Department Javad Yarjani

Head, Data ServicesDepartment Dr Muhammad A Al Tayyeb

Head, PR & InformationDepartment Farouk U Muhammed, mni

Head, Administration &Human Resources Department Senussi J Senussi

Head, Office of theSecretary General Karin Chacin

Legal Officer Dolores Dobarro

W e b s i t eVisit the OPEC Web site for the latest news andinformation about the Organization and itsMember Countries. The URL is

http://www.opec.org

T h i s m o n t h ’ s c o v e r . . .shows an Orimulsion plant in Venezuela, which isbuilding a new unit to produce the power plant fuel forsupply to China (see Newsline beginning on page 9).Photo courtesy PDVSA.

2 N O T I C E B O A R DForthcoming conferences and other events

3 C O M M E N T A R YLa grande illusionThe failure of the Enron collapse to rattle energy markets showsthat efforts to promote stability are on track

4 F O R U MThe outlook for international crude oil demand and supplyBy Dr Alí Rodríguez Araque, OPEC Secretary General

27 I N T E R V I E WFormer Director of OPEC’s Research Division, HE Dr ShokriGhanem, is appointed Libyan Minister of Trade

29 N E W S L I N EEnergy stories concerning OPEC and developing countries

17 M A R K E T R E V I E WOil market monitoring report for December 2001

34 M E M B E R C O U N T R Y F O C U SFinancial and development news about OPEC Countries

39 O P E C F U N D N E W SRecent loans and grants made by the OPEC Fund

41 G E N E R A L I N D E X 2 0 0 1Subject index 43Authors’ index 45

45 S E C R E T A R I A T N O T E SOPEC Secretariat activities

47 A D V E R T I S I N G R A T E SHow to advertise in this magazine

48 O R D E R F O R MPublications: subscriptions and single orders

Indexed and abstracted in PAIS International

Vol XXXIII, No 1 ISSN 0474-6279 January 2002

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2 OPEC Bulletin

N O T I C E B O A R D

Forthcoming events

Dubai, UAE, March 4–5, 2002, Middle Eastship repair. Details: Conference ConnectionAdministrators Pte, 212A Telok Ayer Street,Singapore 068645. Tel: +65 226 5280; fax:+65 226 4117; e-mail: [email protected];www.cconnection.org/iogchome.htm.

Houston, Tx, USA, March 4–8, 2002, train-ing course on Horizontal & directional drill-ing. Details: GSM Training Services, PO Box50790, Amarillo, Tx 79159-0790, USA. Tel:+1 806 358 6894; fax: +1 806 358 6800;e-mail: [email protected]; Web site: www.gsm-inc.com.

Houston, Tx, USA, March 11–15, 2002,training course on Introduction to drilling(non-technical). Details: GSM Training Serv-ices, Inc, PO Box 50790, Amarillo, Tx 79159-0790, USA. Tel: +1 806 358 6894; fax: +1806 358 6800; e-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.gsm-inc.com.

Prague, Czech Republic, March 17–22, 2002,training course on The gas chain — fromreservoir to burner tip. Details: Kate Wright,Alphatania, EconoMatters Ltd, RodwellHouse, 100 Middlesex Street, London E17HD, UK. Tel: +44 (0)207 650 1430/1402;fax: +44 (0)20 7650 1431/1401; e-mail:[email protected]; Web site:www.alphatania.com.

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, March 18–19, 2002,2nd annual conference on Latin gas 2002: gasbusiness opportunities & LNG-GTL strategies up-stream & downstream. Details: Global Pacific& Partners. Tel: +27 11 778 4360; fax: +2711 880 3391; e-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.petro21.com/events.

Cambridge, UK, March 18–22, 2002, train-ing course on Economics of the oil supply chain.Details: Kate Wright, Alphatania,EconoMatters Ltd, Rodwell House, 100 Mid-dlesex Street, London E1 7HD, UK. Tel: +44(0)207 650 1430/1402; fax: +44 (0)20 76501431/1401; e-mail: [email protected];Web site: www.alphatania.com.

Tbilisi, Georgia, March 19–21, 2002,GIOGIE 2002, 1st Georgian international oil,gas, energy and infrastructure exhibition andconference. Details: Dan Coberman, ITEGroup PLC, 105 Salusbury Rd, London NW66RG, UK. Tel: +44 (0)207 596 5000; fax:+44 (0)207 596 5111; e-mail: [email protected]; www.ite-exhibitions.com.

Tehran, IR IranMay 18–19, 2002

4th Iranpetrochemical forum

Details: IICIC SecretariatTel: +9821 2048859Fax: +9821 2044769E-mail: [email protected] sites: www.nipc.net www.iicic.com

Houston, Tx, USA, March 19–21, 2002,training course on Aviation jet fuel. Details:QinetiQ Fuels and Lubricants Centre,Building 442, QinetiQ Pyestock, CodyTechnology Park, Ively Road, Farnborough,Hants. GU14 0LX. Tel: +44 (0)1252374772; fax: +44 (0)1252 374791; e-mail:[email protected]; Web site:www.qinetiq.com.

Amsterdam, the Netherlands, March 20–21,2002, 8th annual event, Flame 2002: Euro-pean gas — strategies for survival in a changingenergy market. Details: Flame 2002, Confer-ence Administrator, ICBI, 8th floor, 29Bressenden Place, London SW1E 5DR, UK.Tel: +44 (0)20 7915 5103; fax: +44 (0)207915 5101; e-mail: [email protected];Web site: www.icbi-flame.com.

London, UK, March 25–28, 2002, trainingcourse on Introduction to petroleumgeoengineering. Details: NexT, Prof PatrickCorbett, Heriot-Watt University, e-mail:[email protected].

Bahrain, April 9–10, 2002, Gulf investmentforum. Details: Melinda Addison, LogisticsManager. Tel: +44 (0)20 7779 8571; fax: +44(0)20 7779 8795; e-mail: [email protected]; www.euromoneyplc. com.

London, UK, April 17–18, 2002, interna-tional conference on Top ten targets 2002.Details: Global Pacific & Partners. Tel: +2711 778 4360; fax: +27 11 880 3391; e-mail: [email protected]; Web site: www.petro21. com.

Moscow, Russia, April 23–25, 2002, G & O2002, international gas & oil exhibition.

London, UKMay 2–3, 2001

Oil and gas investments inNigeria 2002

Details: CWC Associates3 Tyers GateLondon SE1 3HX, UKTel: +44 (0)20 7089 4200Fax: +44 (0)20 7089 4201E-mail: bookings@ thecwcgroup.comwww.thecwcgroup.comwww.ibcenergy.com/eq1090

Details: SV Congrès, 28 rue Massena 06000nice, France. Tel: +33 493 870308; fax: +33493 821537; e-mail: [email protected].

London, UK, May 23–24, 2002, 4th annualconference on Angola oil and gas summit.Details: IBC UK Conferences. Fax: +44 (0)207436 8377; e-mail: [email protected].

Lisbon, Portugal, May 14–15, 2002,Lusophone oil & gas 2002: exploration oppor-tunities, development & energy investments.Details: Global Pacific & Partners. Tel: +2711 778 4360; fax: +27 11 880 3391; e-mail:[email protected]; Web site: www.petro21.com/events.

Paris, France, May 21–22, 2002, interna-tional conference on Sanctioned oil states 2002:strategies, conflicts, legalities, investments &issues, sanctioned, marginalized & impactedstates. Details: Global Pacific & Partners. Tel:+27 11 778 4360; fax: +27 11 880 3391; e-mail: [email protected]; Web site:www.petro21.com/events.

Darussalam, Brunei, May 27–30, 2002,Gasex 2002: powering sustainable growth. De-tails: RAI Group, 226/36-37 Bond Street,Riviera Tower 1, Muang Thong Thani,Bangpood, Pakkred Nonthaburi, 11120Thailand. Tel: +662 960 0141; fax: +662960 0140; e-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.gasex2002.com.

Baku, Azerbaijan, June 4–7, 2002, Caspianoil & gas 2002 — new focus on opportunity forcontracting and supply companies. Details:Spearhead Exhibitions, Coombe Hill House,Beverley Way, London SW20 0AR, UK. Tel:+44 (0)20 8949 9222; fax: +44 (0)20 89499868; e-mail: [email protected];www.caspianoilgas.co.uk.

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January 2002 3

C O M M E N T A R Y

La grande illusionThe failure of the Enron collapse to rattle energy markets

shows that efforts to promote stability are on track

E d i t o r i a l p o l i c yOPEC Bulletin is published by the Public

Relations & Information Department. The

contents do not necessarily reflect the official

views of OPEC or its Member Countries.

Names and boundaries on any maps should not

be regarded as authoritative. No responsibility

is taken for claims or contents of advertise-

ments. Editorial material may be freely repro-

duced (unless copyrighted), crediting OPEC

Bulletin as the source. A copy to the Editor-in-

Chief would be appreciated.

C o n t r i b u t o r sOPEC Bulletin welcomes original contribu-

tions on the technical, financial and environ-

mental aspects of all stages of the energy indus-

try, including letters for publication, research

reports and project descriptions with support-

ing illustrations and photographs.

E d i t o r i a l s t a f fEditor-in-Chief Farouk U Muhammed, mni

Editor Graham Patterson

Assistant Editor Philippa Webb

Production Diana Lavnick

Design Elfi Plakolm

Circulation Damir Ivankovic

A d v e r t i s e m e n t sOPEC Bulletin reaches the decision-makersin Member Countries. For details of its rea-sonable advertisement rates see the appropri-ate page at the end of the magazine. Ordersfrom Member Countries (and areas not listedbelow) should be sent directly to the Editor-in-Chief at the Secretariat address. Other-wise, orders should be placed through thefollowing Advertising Representatives:

North America: Donnelly & Associates,PO Box 851471, Richardson, Texas 75085-1471, USA. Tel: +1 972 437 9557; fax: +1 972437 9558.

Europe: G Arnold Teesing BV, Molenland32, 3994 TA Houten, The Netherlands. Tel:+31 30 6340660; fax: +31 30 6590690;e-mail: [email protected].

Middle East: Imprint International, Suite3, 16 Colinette Rd, Putney, London SW156QQ, UK. Tel: +44 (0)181 785 3775; fax:+44 (0)171 837 2764.

Southern Africa: International MediaReps, Pvt Bag X18, Bryanston, 2021 SouthAfrica. Tel: +2711 706 2820; fax: +2711 7062892.

For most of the economic boom of the1990s, the US energy giant Enronwas the darling of investors. Out of

a traditional and somewhat unexciting en-ergy company, a colossus was created — aninnovative firm that believed almost any-thing could be traded. Enron, which wascredited with creating a whole new para-digm for the energy trading business, roseto become America’s seventh-largest com-pany, making billions of dollars for its insti-tutional shareholders and top executives inthe process.

It turned out, however, that the giantEnron had feet of clay. The spectacularprofits it recorded year after year were pos-sible only because a complicated system oftransferring loss-making items off the bookshad been set up, effectively concealing thetrue state of the company’s business. Enron’sremarkable profitability was nothing morethan an illusion on a grand scale. When thewhistle was blown, the company’s shareprice fell like a rock, and the decline couldnot be halted. In December, Enron was leftwith no choice but to file for Chapter 11bankruptcy.

Many of the fallen giant’s long-servingand dedicated employees, who had investedheavily in Enron stock and/or had com-pany pensions, were left literally pennilessby the collapse. They reacted angrily, sell-ing off whatever Enron memorabilia cameto hand on online auction sites such aseBay. In the ultimate irony, one of the mostpopular items was the company’s code ofethics. It had taken just a few months forEnron to be transformed from stock marketWunderkind into the world’s biggest garagesale. And a note of tragedy was added whenone former manager took his own life.

What can we learn from all this, andhow can similar scandals be prevented inthe future? It goes without saying that theenergy sector is big business, and whereverlarge amounts of money are involved, hu-

man nature often manifests itself in theform of greed. The countries of the devel-oping world are often accused of corrup-tion, but the Enron scandal has remindedus that this is not limited to poor nations.Even in countries with a strong legal frame-work and institutional checks and balances,those who are determined to enrich them-selves at the expense of others will find waysto do so.

There is, however, some good news tobe found: despite Enron having been amajor energy trader, the international en-ergy markets were barely affected by thecollapse of one of their biggest players. Enronwas a big gas and power trader, so instabil-ity triggered by its collapse might have beenexpected in those markets. However, thatdid not happen. Other firms moved rap-idly to fill the gaps and maintain the bal-ance. This is remarkably similar to the roleplayed by OPEC in 1990–91, which —when several million barrels/day of oil wereremoved from the market at the outbreak ofthe Gulf crisis — stepped in to fill the gapand restore stability.

What this tells us is that internationalenergy markets are bigger than any oneplayer, OPEC included. As the Organiza-tion has noted on many occasions, it needseverybody to work together to continue thedevelopment of market structures that arestable, transparent and at the same time,flexible and resilient enough to bounce backfrom any knocks — whether from collaps-ing companies or collapsing oil prices.OPEC acknowledges that no market canever be perfect, which makes it all the moreimportant that all parties should all worktogether to further develop the level of co-operation required to deliver market stabil-ity. In this way, we can help ensure that,although it will never be possible to elimi-nate destabilizing events like the collapse ofEnron altogether, their impact on energymarkets can be minimized.

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4 OPEC Bulletin

F O R U M

But has the market itself really changed?Or are we witnessing a case of — to borrowan expression from the French — plus çachange, plus c’est la même chose, which canbe translated as ‘the more things change,the more they remain the same’?

The oil market developments of thepast few months might suggest that therehas been a false dawn to this millennium.The new century began on an optimisticnote, as we witnessed encouraging progressin such important areas as co-operation,pricing and, let us say, perceptions ofrealities in the market.

This was happening at a time when theindustry was undergoing a process of radi-cal restructuring, with the mega-mergersof major oil companies and the openingup to foreign investment in the upstreamsectors of many oil-producing countries.Energy markets were being liberalised,particularly in Europe and America, lead-ing to a new era of enhanced competition,investment and innovation.

Moreover, this was at the height of theinformation revolution and the huge stridesthat were being made on the technologicalside of the industry. Let us therefore exam-ine the two areas of perceived progress towhich I have just referred: co-operationand pricing.

The issue of co-operation is one wherewe believe there have been real advances atthree important levels since January 1,2000: within OPEC, between OPEC andnon-OPEC producers, and between pro-ducers and consumers. There is a growingrecognition throughout the world of oilthat progress is best achieved in a spirit ofconsensus. Let us look at some examples.Within OPEC, we held our Second Sum-mit of OPEC Heads of State and Govern-ment, in the Venezuelan capital Caracas in

The spirit of consensus andco-operation is likely to playa vital role in oil industrydevelopments in the years tocome, notes OPEC SecretaryGeneral, HE Dr AlíRodríguez Araque, in thisarticle.*

* Based on Dr Rodríguez Araque’s address tothe Oil, Gas & Electricity Conference on ‘Thelatest developments in the energy sector,’ Ath-ens, Greece, January 30–31, 2002.

The first year of this millenniumshone fresh light on the new reali-ties of the global marketplace. The

economy was still susceptible to the dy-namic influences of various factors, whichsometimes strengthen and sometimesweaken it. Despite the various theories,policies and plans to counterbalance orreduce the negative effects of the eco-nomic cycle, such disruptive phenomenaremain stubbornly present.

September 2000, where our eleven Mem-ber Countries undertook a fundamentalreview of the guiding principles of ourOrganization and reaffirmed their com-mitment.

A shining example of improved OPEC/non-OPEC co-operation can be found inthe active role leading non-OPEC pro-ducers played in helping OPEC raise pricesfrom unreasonably low levels in 1998 andearly 1999, and then moderate them fromunreasonably high levels in the year 2000.Such co-operation was demonstrated againat the end of 2001, when five non-OPECproducers again agreed to join with OPECin stabilising the market.

Improved co-operationAnd an important example of improved

producer/consumer co-operation can befound at the Seventh International EnergyForum in Riyadh in November 2000,which was attended by representatives fromconsuming countries of higher levels thanever before.

After a period of confrontation be-tween producers and consumers this dia-logue was established — or re-established— in 1991. In the past we have gonethrough some extreme situations, causingunreasonable hardship for one or anotherof the parties concerned; but it seems thatwe are hopefully approaching a new bal-ance, a situation we all are able to cope, andto live, with.

At this point I would like examine theissue of the ownership and property rightsof all countries regarding their naturalresources, in this particular case — oil,which will bring us to the issue of prices. Ingeneral these rights are acknowledged, es-pecially regarding exhaustible natural re-sources, in different UN resolutions, and

The outlook for internationalcrude oil demand and supply

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January 2002 5

F O R U M

in Article XX (g) of the General Agree-ment on Tariffs and Trade (GATT/WTO)of 1994.

Legitimate entitlementNevertheless, more recently there has

been a trend to diminish these rights as, forexample, regarding the right to a reason-able patrimonial remuneration in the caseof hydrocarbons. It has been argued thatthe contribution has to be limited to theincome tax or others of the same nature,that is, taxes based on net revenues, whereasroyalty and similar gross-value based levieshave been qualified — or should I saydisqualified? — as ‘regressive’ taxes.

As a matter of fact, these kinds of levyare no tax at all but a patrimonial remu-neration, to which the natural resourceowner is entitled as such, legitimately, aslegitimately as the investor is entitled to aprofit. Oil prices have to provide for enoughroom to accommodate both. We thinkexplicitly acknowledging this fact wouldput the dialogue between producers andconsumers on a solid basis, and bring uscloser to the major goal to stabilize marketsand prices.

This is why we introduced our priceband mechanism in the year 2000. Itprovides enough breathing space for themarket, at the same time as setting limits,which are acceptable to the natural re-source owners, investors, and consumers.It is within these limits that highly com-petitive markets will respond to the pres-sure of the different interests concerned.This is, after all, the world of business. Butat least all parties can operate in an envi-ronment, which reasonably protects themagainst damaging and excessive variationsin prices.

Relative stabilityLet us now have a look at the real

development of prices. As we all know, aperiod of relative price stability in the mid-1990s came to an abrupt end in 1998,when prices collapsed, after the severeeconomic downturn in south and south-east Asia. The OPEC cuts of March 1999— which were made jointly with non-OPEC producers, as outlined above — ledto a dramatically improved situation, whichlasted well into 2001.

Much of the credit for this, in the latterstages, must go to OPEC’s price band

mechanism, which was introduced in theyear 2000 and sought to keep prices withina realistic range, while at the same time,allowing for sufficient flexibility to absorbthe short-term price fluctuations, whichare characteristic of all markets. Prices inthe first eight months of 2001 averaged afraction under $25/barrel, which was ontarget.

Hence, co-operation and pricing weretwo areas where remarkable progress wasachieved at the dawn of the 21st century.Unfortunately, however, much of thisprogress came unstuck after the sudden,

unexpected, tragic events of September 11.Within a fortnight, prices had plunged byaround $5/b below those of the periodimmediately before the attack. Not evenOPEC’s production agreements couldprovide a timely solution to this momen-tous problem.

At the same time, there were also somelonger-term and structural factors at work.The global economy had already beenweakening steadily during the precedingmonths, spearheaded by diminishing pros-pects in much of the industrialised world,notably the United States, Germany andthe long-suffering Japan.

The terrorist attacks exacerbated theeconomic downturn, as well as havingadverse consequences of their own, such asthe huge drop in demand for jet fuel.At the same time, the fall in energy de-mand highlighted the fact that non-OPECcrude oil supply had been rising during the

year 1999 by around 600,000 barrels/day.In 2000, the increase was over onemillion b/d.

OPEC has given much thought to theway the market is evolving. On balance,we believe that, in spite of the recentsetbacks, there has been a significant changein attitude and, hence, behaviour in the oilmarket over the past few years. We areoptimistic that this will continue in thefuture. If we set aside the horrors of theevent itself, September 11 was probably ofshort-to-medium-term significance, whenit comes to energy economics.

Fundamental trendAs was noted earlier, it accelerated

existing downward trends and created someimpacts of its own. But, in the longer term,these are likely to weaken and, eventually,to vanish, and to give way again to themore fundamental trend in line with theimprovements we have noticed over thepast two years in co-operation and pricing.This is a trend which will prevail, andwhich will help to lay the foundations of amore stable market, creating the environ-ment for a flourishing industry.

Our forecast shows that oil will remainthe world’s frontline primary energy source.The reference case from OPEC’s WorldEnergy Model (OWEM) predicts that theshare of oil in world energy demand willdecline slightly, from 41.0 per cent in2000 to 38.8 per cent in 2020. In the sameperiod, the share of gas will rise from 22.7to 29.1 per cent, overtaking that of solids,which will fall from 25.9 to 23.6 per cent,as shown in Table 1.

In terms of quantity, world oil de-mand is projected to rise from around 76million b/d now to 106m b/d in 2020.With non-OPEC oil production remain-ing relatively stable over this period, OPECwill produce 53m b/d in 2020, with amarket share of about 50 per cent (seeTable 2 for details).

These projections are based on likelyscenarios. Of course, they will be fre-quently revised according to the ongoingevolution of the situation. Particularly, wewill have to take into account the evolu-tion of negotiations regarding climatechange and other environmental develop-ments, the world trade talks, regionalism,globalisation, new legislation and the in-formation revolution.

‘The prevailingtrend will helpto lay thefoundationsof a morestable market.’

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F O R U M

Excessive competition among produc-ers for foreign capital could drasticallyreduce the level of rents and royalties thesecountries receive for the exploitation oftheir finite hydrocarbon reserves. The eco-nomic rent would then swing away fromthem. It may go to investors, the multina-tional companies or other external parties;or it may be eaten up by higher costs, dueto the inefficient design and regulation ofupstream contracts.

In OPEC, we believe that the oil rev-enues should be shared in an equitablemanner, and the different interests con-cerned should be properly aligned. In otherwords, the different parties — naturalresource-owners, investors and, ultimately,consumers — should look for arrange-ments according to which they alwaysprosper together.

In the final analysis, the guarantee ofsteady, reasonable income is more impor-tant to oil producers than the impositionof limits on production volumes. Puttingproduction volumes before income is likeputting the cart before the horse.

Summing up, we now have plenty ofopportunity for us to make our presencefelt. We can do this by ensuring that theinternational oil market performs in areasonably stable manner, with secure sup-ply, steady demand, reasonable prices andfair returns.

Who knows, perhaps some futureGreek scholar may review this era in thenext millennium and describe it as ‘thegolden age of petroleum.’ Let us hope so.This would then vindicate the efforts of allof us in these opening years of the 21st

century.

Table 1: World energy fuel shares in the reference case (per cent)

2000 2010 2020

Oil 41.0 39.9 38.8Solids 25.9 25.1 23.6Gas 22.7 25.5 29.1Hydro/nuclear 10.4 9.5 8.6

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Souce: OWEM Scenarios Report, March 2001.

Table 2: World oil production outlook in the reference case (m b/d)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

OPEC (incl NGL) 30.0 34.0 38.6 45.9 53.4Non-OPEC 45.9 49.3 52.4 52.5 52.4

Total world 75.8 83.4 91.0 98.4 105.8

OPEC market share (per cent) 39.5 40.8 42.4 46.7 50.5

Souce: OWEM Scenarios Report, March 2001.

In order to meet the ever-increasinglevels of demand, heavy investment —estimated at tens of billions of dollars peryear over the next couple of decades — isrequired. Therefore, many oil-producingcountries are opening up their upstreamsectors to foreign investment. Since OPECMember Countries possess three-quartersof the world’s proven oil reserves, andsince these include most of the low-costoil, it is only logical that a very significant

part of upstream investment will have tobe directed towards our countries.

At the same time, however, caremust be taken that private foreign invest-ment is properly accommodated. Aftera quarter of a century of having theirpetroleum industries controlled by na-tional oil companies, many producingnations have lost some expertise in negoti-ating and handling contracts with foreigninvestors.

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January 2002 7

I N T E R V I E W

Former Director of Research Divisionis appointed Libyan Minister of Trade

The former Director of OPEC’sResearch Division, HE Dr ShokriGhanem, has been appointed as

the SP Libyan AJ’s new Minister of Tradeand Economic Affairs.

In an interview with the OPEC NewsAgency, Dr Ghanem said that the greatestchallenge facing him in his new post wasthe integration of his country’s economicactivities into the global economy.

This would involve encouraging theprivate sector to lead the economic ad-vancement of the country, while the gov-ernment played an active supervisory roleand provided a conducive climate for in-vestment.

Dr Ghanem was speaking after attend-ing a reception held in his honour byOPEC Secretary General, HE Dr AlíRodríguez Araque, and attended by staffof the Secretariat in Vienna.

He added that he saw his appointmentas a great challenge and service to his coun-try and he hoped to bring his wealth ofexperience to bear in his ministerial duties.

“We shall mobilize our natural andhuman resources, as well as promote activeprivate sector participation in the taskahead,” he said on an optimistic note.

Libya would retain its strategic role inpromoting regional economic co-opera-tion within the Maghreb countries, as wellas integrating into the African economyand the rest of the developing world.

Dr Ghanem stressed that he wouldpursue a liberal economic policy globally,particularly in the ongoing negotiationswith the World Trade Organization.

However, he asserted that his countrywould remain careful “not to compromiseLibya’s legitimate interests,” as no nationcould afford to be an island.

Despite attempts in the past to isolateLibya economically, he added, the coun-try had proven its ability to integrate withits immediate neighbours, through thedevelopment of viable economic relationsand co-operation.

He hoped to strengthen such economicties, improve infrastructure, and eliminateartificial and physical trade barriers.

Dr Ghanem, who was Head of Re-search Division for eight years from 1993-2001, said the opportunity to serve OPEChad impressed on him the need for theOrganization’s Member Countries to pro-mote “the integration of the oil sector intotheir economies.”

In view of the significant role that theoil sector played in the respective OPECMember Countries’ economies, this issuewould form part of his immediate priori-ties, he said.

Dr Ghanem (left)listens as OPECSecretary General,Dr Alí Rodríguez Araque,addresses the receptionheld in his honour.

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N E W S L I N E

January 2002 9

N E W S L I N E

aracas — Chinese and Venezue-lan state oil industry executives

have signed an agreement to builda new plant to produce Venezuela’s trade-mark power plant fuel, Orimulsion, whichwill be supplied to the Chinese market.

The new production unit will have acapacity to produce about 125,000 bar-rels/day of Orimulsion and will be locatedin the Cerro Negro and Morichal areas ofMonagas State in eastern Venezuela.

In addition, an emulsifying plant willbe built at the industrial complex in Jose,Anzoategui State, also in the east of thecountry.

The agreement was signed last monthby the Managing Director of Bitumenesdel Orinoco (Bitor), Alfredo Riera Lozada.Bitor is the subsidiary of state oil corpo-ration Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA),which is responsible for the productionand marketing of Orimulsion.

From the Chinese side, the accord wassigned by Zhou Ji Ping, a senior officialof the China National Oil and Gas Ex-ploration and Development Corporation(CNOGEDC), and the President ofPetrochina Fuel Oil Company, WuGuozhi. CNOGEDC is a subsidiary of theChina National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC).

Attending the signing ceremony wereVenezuelan President, Hugo Chávez,Deputy Energy and Mines Minister,Bernardo Alvarez, and PDVSA President,Guaicaipuro Lameda.

“There are no limits to our will forintegration with China,” said Chávezduring a speech at the signing ceremony,held at the Miraflores presidential palace.

“We have had to work hard to makeOrimulsion the flagship product withinthe strategy of Venezuelan energy diversi-fication,” he added.

Bitor has been trying to marketOrimulsion to China since 1995. During1996 and 1997, Bitor placed some 1.6million tonnes of the fuel on the Chinesemarket through CNPC.

As a result of the favourable outlookfor growth in Orimulsion demand in

Venezuela’s President Chávez sees “no limits”on co-operation with China as deal is signed

to build new Orimulsion production unitChina, Bitor signed a memorandum ofunderstanding in 1997 with CNPC for astudy to determine the feasibility of anassociation agreement between both com-panies to build a new Orimulsion produc-tion unit, whose output would be sold onthe Chinese market.

Due to the strengthening of politicaland economic ties between Venezuela andChina at the beginning of 2000, a seriesof agreements were signed by the twocountries, including an accord betweenPDVSA and CNPC to promote theOrimulsion deal.

That led to an Orimulsion co-opera-tion agreement signed in April 2001 byBitor and CNOGEDC. In the samemonth, a contract for the purchase andsale of Orimulsion was signed by Bitor andPetrochina Fuel, involving between 1.2m–1.5m t/y of Orimulsion.

According to PDVSA, the Orimulsionproject with China would allow Venezuelato export the equivalent of some $200mworth of the fuel annually to China.

At the same ceremony, governmentofficials also signed documents coveringcloser bilateral co-operation for the devel-opment of public works infrastructure inseveral areas of Venezuela.

Representatives of Chinese company,the Yang Qang Group, and the state-runVenezuelan Railroad Institute signed anagreement covering specific railroad ven-tures in the Latin American country.

Nigeria signs new dealon production-sharingwith Italian firm AgipAbuja — The state-owned Nigerian Na-tional Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)last month signed the second of its pro-duction-sharing pacts with the Italian oiland gas firm Agip.

The deal was inked between Agip inconjunction with an NNPC subsidiary,the Nigerian Petroleum DevelopmentCompany (NPDC), and the NNPC for

the exploration of deep-water oil blocks214 and 318.

The accord was signed by the ChiefOperations Officer of the Nigeria Agip OilCompany, Stephano Cao, and the Chair-man of the NPDC, Malam Abba Dabo.Under the terms of the deal, Agip has a 90per cent stake in the venture, while theNPDC holds the remainder.

Cao said after the signing that Agipwould start the lease with a seismic surveyand two exploration wells and that workon the first well would commence by2003.

He added that Agip wanted to improveits operations in Nigeria because the coun-try constituted a major part of the Italianfirm’s operations. The firm was planningto raise its production from 1.0 millionbarrels/day to 1.5m b/d by the end of2002.

Another deal was signed last monthbetween the Brazilian oil firm, Petrobras,local firm Horizon Oil, and the NNPC,which covered the exploration of oil block324.

This accord was signed by the Man-aging Director of the Nigerian unit ofPetrobras, Samir Awad, and the GroupManaging Director of the NNPC, JacksonGaius-Obaseki.

Speaking at the signing ceremony,Gaius-Obaseki said that oil blocks 214 and318 were initially awarded to ExxonMobiland Phillips Petroleum, but the two firmscould not sign the agreements becausetheir contractor, Petronas of Malaysia,had withdrawn, and the responsibility ofexploring the block thus fell on theNNPC.

Contracts for the remaining deep-water blocks would commence soon, henoted, stating that contracts would beawarded as soon as all logistics had beenput in place.

“We are working round the clock toensure that the remaining logistics arefinalized and we shall announce biddingfor the remaining oil blocks in thedeepwater offshore,” the NNPC Headadded.

Gaius-Obaseki also noted that that theNNPC was planning to enter into part-nerships with investors for the establish-ment of refineries.

“We are going to be involved in part-nerships with investors when it is time for

C

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N E W S L I N E

10 OPEC Bulletin

11 and 12 of the South Pars field wouldbe carried out on the basis of both financeand buy-back schemes.

He added that the company preferredto conclude contracts for stages nine and10, before studying proposals for stages 11and 12, noting that TotalFinaElf, ENI ofItaly, BP of the UK, and Statoil of Nor-way had delivered proposals for theseprojects.

Salehiforouz said that studies wereunder way for stages 13 and 14 of the field,which was estimated to have 463 trillioncu ft of gas reserves, according to IRNA.

Qatar Petroleum signsmajor gas developmentdeal with Dolphin EnergyDoha — Qatar Petroleum, representingthe government of Qatar, and DolphinEnergy, the Abu Dhabi-based joint-ven-ture development company responsible forimplementing the ambitious Dolphin gasscheme, have signed the development andproduction-sharing agreement (DPSA) forthe $3.5 billion project.

The agreement was signed in Doha byQatar’s Minister of Energy & Industry andChairman of Qatar Petroleum, AbdullahBin Hamad Al Attiyah; the Chairman ofDolphin Energy, Ahmed Ali Al Sayegh;and TotalFinaElf ’s Vice-President of Ex-ploration and Production, Christophe deMargerie.

The United Arab Emirates OffsetsGroup owns a 75.5 per cent stake inDolphin, with TotalFinaElf possessing theremaining 24.5 per cent.

Complementing the DPSA was anagreement to construct pipelines that willtransport gas from Qatar to the UAE, alsosigned by the Qatari government andDolphin.

The 25-year agreement covers thedevelopment of upstream facilities for theproduction of sufficient quantities ofnatural gas and its transportation to a gas-gathering and processing plant at RasLaffan to extract condensate, ethane, sul-phur, and liquefied petroleum gas from thewet gas.

It also involves the transportation of2.0 billion cubic feet/day of methane-richlean, sweet gas through a 440-km under-

water pipeline to Taweelah in Abu Dhabiand on to Jebel Ali in Dubai.

The gas for the project, which is ex-pected to be completed by the end of2005, will come from Qatar’s North field.The latter is reputed to hold the world’slargest single non-associated gas reservoir.

Indonesian governmentagain delays increasein domestic fuel pricesJakarta — The Indonesian governmenthas decided to delay a scheduled 30 percent increase in domestic fuel prices fromJanuary 1, 2002, citing its impact on theeconomic sectors and weaker internationaloil prices.

The Energy and Mineral ResourcesMinister, Dr Purnomo Yusgiantoro, saidthat a number of issues were being con-sidered in relation to the increase in fuelprices.

The prices were due to be raised as partof moves to cut subsidies and reduce theburden on the 2002 state budget, in linewith the agreement with the InternationalMonetary Fund, which is helping Indo-nesia rebuild its economy.

The Indonesian House of Representa-tives had lowered the fuel subsidy to 30.37trillion rupiahs (just over $3 billion) in the2002 budget, from the original estimateof more than 56tr rupiahs for 2001.

However, no firm date had yet beenset for increasing fuel prices and reducingthe subsidy, although the public had gen-erally assumed it would be from the be-ginning of 2002, according to a report inthe Jakarta Post newspaper last month.

A hike in fuel prices had become apolitically sensitive issue, as it wouldimpact on the country’s inflation rate, withthe price of basic goods and the cost oftransportation surging.

Purnomo disclosed that the govern-ment was still working on the size of acompensation fund to be allocated to thepoor, who would be hardest hit by theincrease in fuel prices.

The fuel price hike was based on anassumption of an average international oilprice of $22/barrel, but the price had beenaveraging $19/b in recent weeks, due toshrinking global petroleum demand.

us to establish refineries. This is part ofefforts at liberalization. We have to openthe market so that there will be products,”he said.

Second and third stagesof Iran’s South Pars fieldto be on stream soonTehran — The Managing Director ofIran’s Pars Oil and Gas Company,Asadollah Salehiforouz, said last monththat the second and third stages of theSouth Pars gas field extraction projectwould be on stream from February 2002.

He told a press conference that in theearly period of commissioning of the sec-ond and third stages of the South Pars field,an extra 500 million cubic feet of gaswould be channelled into the national gasnetwork.

Salehiforouz said a consortium com-prising TotalFinaElf of France, Petronas ofMalaysia, and Gazprom of Russia wasworking on the development of the sec-ond and third stages of the field.

Under the field’s implementationtimetable, the two stages and three otherprojects should have been on stream lastOctober, according to the official IslamicRepublic News Agency (IRNA).

Salehiforouz said a number of factorshad combined to cause the five-monthdelay, adding that the company wouldstudy to what extent the contractors wereresponsible for this development.

He noted that since the executiveworks of the project were making eight percent progress every month, the two stageswould become operational in February.Extraction of gas from the two stageswould reach 2 billion cu ft by the end of2002, along with 80,000 barrels of gasliquids.

Asked about the winner of the tenderfor stages nine and 10 of the South Parsfield, Salehiforouz said foreign companiesbidding for the project were required tolodge their proposals by December 22,2001.

Technip of France, Sunfire of Iran, LGof South Korea, and the Marine Indus-tries Company of Iran had already deliv-ered their proposals for the scheme.

Salehiforouz said that stages nine, 10,

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N E W S L I N E

January 2002 11

In briefIndonesia’s fuel consumption was ex-

pected to average 52.77 million kilolitresin 2002, compared with an estimated54.60m kl used in 2001.

Japan’s Arabian Oil Cosigns new deal on Khafjioil field with KuwaitTokyo — Japan’s Arabian Oil Company(AOC) said last month that it had signeda memorandum of understanding with theKuwaiti government for an agreementcovering continued output from the Khafjioil field.

The MOU was signed by the Japanesefirm’s President, Keiichi Konaga, and theKuwaiti Oil Minister, Dr Adel K Al-Sabeeh, according to a statement fromAOC.

The final agreement would allow AOCto continue producing oil from the Ku-waiti side of the field beyond January2003, when the current deal expires.

“Our company intends to make theutmost efforts to strike an agreement asspeedily as possible, to secure our involve-ment in the drilling of oil in the dividedfield beyond January 2003,” said the AOCstatement.

The Khafji field straddles the borderbetween Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. AOC,which is Japan’s largest crude producer, lostthe concession rights to the Saudi Arabianside of the field in February 2000.

Japan, which is heavily dependent onimported crude from the Middle East, hasbeen trying to maintain a strong footholdin overseas oil-producing basins, especiallythe Middle East.

Algeria signs new gaspipeline accord withItaly and GermanyAlgiers — Algerian state oil and gascompany Sonatrach, Italy’s Enel, andthe German firm Wintershall have setup a joint venture to carry out feasibilitystudies for the construction of another gaspipeline to link Algeria and Italy.

The $2.0 billion project would becarried out by the joint company, whose

capital would be held by Sonatrach (50per cent), Enel (35 per cent), Wintershall(15 per cent).

The 1,500-km line would be con-structed in four sections, the first of whichwould cross Algerian territory for 640 km,from the Hassi R’mel gas field to the north-eastern port of El Kala.

The second stage would link El Kalato Cagliari in southern Sardinia, a stretchof some 310 km. The third and fourth sec-tions would link Cagliari to Olbia innorthern Sardinia (about 300 km onshore)and Olbia to Pescaia.

In the first phase, the scheme wouldconvey about 10 billion cubic metres/yearof natural gas to Italy. It was expected thatlater an extension of the line would alsosupply gas to Germany.

Algeria is already linked to Europe bytwo other gas pipelines — the Maghreb-Europe line, which annually transports8bn cu m/y of gas to Spain and 2.5bn cum/y to Portugal, and the trans-Mediterra-nean line, supplying Italy with about 20bncu m/y of gas.

Meanwhile, Algerian and Spanishauthorities are also considering the con-struction of a second pipeline linking thetwo countries — from Arzew in the north-west of Algeria to Almeria, in southernSpain.

Iraqi oil exports intenth phase put at300 million barrelsUN, New York — United Nations oiloverseers said last month that Iraqi oilexports under phase 10 of the oil-for-foodprogramme totalled 300 million barrels.

Of the total, 69.4 per cent of the ex-ports went to the United States market,27.5 per cent to Europe, and 3.1 per centto the Far East.

The tenth six-month phase ended onNovember 30, 2001. Phase 11 runs fromDecember 1, 2001 until May 29, 2002.

During the first week of the newly-started eleventh phase, some 6m b of Iraqioil were exported, earning an estimated$98m in revenue, based on current pricesand the rate of exchange.

This represented the lowest amount ina long time. The exports usually vary

De Palacio praises “responsible” OPECBRUSSELS — The European Commission’s(EC) top energy official has thanked OPEC“for its responsible attitude in the aftermathof the September 11 terrorist attacks” on theUnited States and has called for oil price sta-bility. EC Vice-President and Energy &Transport Commissioner, Loyola de Palacio,in a meeting with OPEC Secretary GeneralDr Alí Rodríguez Araque, said: “It is essen-tial to act against erratic price trends and eve-rything must be done to guarantee stability.”She maintained that a reasonable target pricefor crude should be $20/barrel. “It is not morein Europe’s interests to have prices which aretoo low, than prices which are too high,” dePalacio pointed out. During their meeting,de Palacio and Rodríguez Araque discussedthe current oil market situation and agreedthat dialogue between producers and con-sumers would help to stabilize oil prices.

UK plans to reduce nuclear dependenceBRUSSELS — Leaked plans showing that theUnited Kingdom aims to reduce its depend-ence on nuclear power and increase the useof rival energy sources, have raised concernsfrom those in the nuclear power industry.However, industry sources said that the plans,are part of the government’s forthcomingenergy review, had been praised by environ-mentalists. James Hann, a former Chairmanof Scottish Nuclear Power, said: “We are fac-ing burgeoning demand for energy, ever-in-creasing dependence on imports of oil andgas, and the related issues of security of sup-ply and the longer term effect of global warm-ing, which the market alone cannot hope toanswer at this time.” He urged the review notto rule out civil nuclear power as a viable partof the UK’s future energy mix. According tothe review, some 20 per cent of UK energywould be generated from renewables by 2020.

Ecuador mulls US crude dealsQUITO — Ecuador is negotiating crude oildeals with three companies for the sale of itscrude oil in the United States from Januarythis year, it was reported last month. The threefirms involved are Noble Americas, Petrotrin,and Oil Tex Petroleum. According to govern-ment sources in Quito, Petrotrin and Oil TexPetroleum had accepted an offer made byNoble Americas of a differential of $4.49/bin the price of the oil with the US bench-mark crude, West Texas Intermediate (WTI).State oil company PetroEcuador will main-tain the contracts with the three companiesup until March 2002. The sources noted thateach of the firms would sell two lots of 12,000barrels/day of Oriente crude, with the hopethat the WTI price would improve next year.

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12 OPEC Bulletin

In briefbetween 14m and 18m b a week, accord-ing to the UN Office of the Iraq Pro-gramme (OIP).

The OIP noted in its weekly updatethat although these exports were alreadyscheduled during phase 10 of the pro-gramme, they were completed in the newphase.

It added that at the request of the IraqiState Oil Marketing Organization andcontract-holders for the purchase of Iraqicrude, 27 outstanding approved contractsfrom phase 10 of the programme wereextended into phase 11.

In a related story, Iraqi Minister ofTrade, Mohamed Mahdi Saleh, said lastmonth that Iraq has generated revenuesof $50bn since the start of the UN oil-for-food programme, which began inDecember 1996.

The Minister was quoted by the IraqiNews Agency as saying that the UN haddeducted $18bn of the amount to coverits expenses and reparations for the Gulfconflict, while Iraq had received $15bnworth of commodities.

The remaining funds included$6.36bn in suspended contracts, besidesother UN-endorsed deals under imple-mentation.

The UN allows Iraq to export oil undersanctions imposed after the start of theGulf crisis in August 1990.

Iraq sells its oil through contracts thatmust be approved by a committee of theUN Security Council. The proceeds areused to pay for food, medicine and spareparts for Iraq’s oil industry.

Saudi Aramco makesanother natural gasand condensate findRiyadh — Saudi Arabian Minister ofPetroleum and Mineral Resources, Ali INaimi, announced last month that SaudiAramco has discovered large quantities ofgas in the area of Almazaleej.

The new find is situated about 150 kmsouth-east of Riyadh, and some 90 kmwest of Haradh, in the Ghawar field.

The Minister pointed out that theexploration well (Alghazal 4) had pro-duced gas at a rate of 21.9 million cubicfeet/day, as well as 3,470 barrels/day of

condensate, at a wellhead pressure of 1,370pounds per square inch.

Naimi was quoted by the Saudi PressAgency (SPA) as saying that the well wasfirst drilled on September 13, 2001, andtested at a depth of 13,758 ft in December.

He noted that initial estimates indi-cated that the non-associated gas reservesin the new field would double in the fu-ture, reported SPA.

Finance deal reached fornew water and powerproject in Abu DhabiAbu Dhabi — Abu Dhabi’s third inde-pendent water and power project, theShuweihat power and desalination plant(Shuweihat S1), has achieved financialclosure with the signing of a landmark$1.28 billion loan between joint develop-ers CMS Energy and International Power,and a consortium of 25 financial institu-tions.

The entire financing has been under-written and hence the deal will not go togeneral syndication. The complex finan-cial structure is a combination of conven-tional banking and Islamic financing.

Significantly, there will be an equitybridge loan of about $351 million, inaddition to the $1.28bn loan, represent-ing the equity portion of the project, whichis estimated to cost some $1.6bn.

“It is the largest project financing inthe region and demonstrates not only thesignificance of the capital raised, but theconfidence in the region,” said AbdullaSaif Al Neaimi, Shuweihat S1 ProjectDirector.

“Abu Dhabi remains committed toprivatization as bidding for anotherproject, the Umm Al Nar complex, willbegin in 2002,” he said.

The $1.28bn deal includes a $250mIslamic tranche. The conventional facilitywas lead arranged by Barclays Capital andCitibank.

Other arrangers in the consortiuminclude the Abu Dhabi Investment Com-pany, the National Bank of Abu Dhabi,the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, Credit-anstalt für Wiederaufbau, and the RoyalBank of Scotland. Several other banks arepart of the consortium.

Russia’s Putin backs firmer pricesLONDON — Russia is in favour of higher crudeoil prices, in order to attract investment inthe country’s increasingly important oil in-dustry, Russian President Vladimir Putin saidin an interview with the Financial Timesnewspaper last month. “The fair oil price inour understanding would be between $20/band $25/b,” he said, adding: “We have a lotof oil fields that are explored, that are new,and we are going to develop this area further.”Putin said that in carrying out its policy, Rus-sia would do its best to maintain what hecalled a “price corridor that will be fair, bothfor producers and consumers.” With regardto the fall in crude oil prices following theSeptember 11 attacks on the United States,the President said that Moscow was “not es-pecially happy about it, but nor are we espe-cially concerned. Unlike some otheroil-producing countries, for us the oil sectoris important, but it is not the only source ofour profit.”

EU records drop in coal productionBRUSSELS — Coal output in the EuropeanUnion (EU) last year fell by 13.5 milliontonnes to 86m t, according to the EU’s sta-tistics bureau, Eurostat. Looking at individualmember states, output from German minesfell by 6.5m t (14.8 per cent), productionfrom the United Kingdom decreased by 5.7mt (15.8 per cent), while Spain and France sawdecreases of 0.5m t and 0.9m t, respectively.The union’s total colliery stocks fell by 4.6mt to a total of 10.6m t in 2000. Imports ofhard coal from non-EU countries during thesame period stood at 162.2m t, showing anincrease of 11.6m t from 1999. Productionof hard coke in the EU during 2000 stood at37.2m t, which was 1.0m t more than in theprevious year.

Study says MTBE poses no health riskNEW YORK — The scheduled phase-out ofthe gasoline additive methyl tertiary butylether (MTBE) in California now appears bothunnecessary and economically risky, follow-ing the findings of an important new Euro-pean study. The report, published in the OfficialJournal of the European Communities, has ef-fectively cleared the additive of allegationsthat it posed a significant risk to health, orthe environment. The MTBE phase-out be-comes even more questionable when consid-ering new statistics compiled by the State ofCalifornia, indicating that detections of theadditive in drinking water have largely beeneradicated. The comprehensive study of theeffects of MTBE on health concluded that itposed very limited risks, which could be miti-gated by existing control mechanisms.

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January 2002 13

In briefThe Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, lead

arranger of the Islamic tranche, has un-derwritten $100m, along with the DubaiIslamic Bank ($100m), and the KuwaitFinance House has underwritten $50m.

Dr Ranald Spiers, Regional Director,International Power, described the deal asheroic and complicated. “We worked to-gether closely in persuading the banks andit was an arduous process, most compli-cated. We look forward to more projects,”he added.

Albert Brantley, Executive ManagingDirector of the newly-formed ShuweihatCMS International Power Company, saidShuweihat S1 was another first in theregion, not only because of its financing,but because of the size of the project andits location.

Stolt Offshore awardedrefurbishment contract foroffshore Nigerian platformNew York — Stolt Offshore of theUnited States has announced the awardof a contract from the Shell Petroleum De-velopment Company (SPDC) in Nigeriafor the Forcados Yokri offshore develop-ment in the Niger Delta.

The $245 million deal has beenawarded to a consortium of Stolt Offshoreand the Nigerian company, Suffolk, whichis part of the Adamac Group. The StoltOffshore share of the contract is $110m.

The Forcados Yokri project includesthe expansion and refurbishment ofexisting shallow water oil and gas produc-tion and process facilities and the fabrica-tion and installation of a new productionplatform with a 250-tonne jacket and1,300-t topsides.

Stolt Offshore will be responsible forall the engineering, procurement and fab-rication work, while its partner will becarrying out most of the installation ofsome 220 km of flow line and umbilicalconnections in a maximum water depthof 15 metres.

A new pipeline from the ForcadosYokri development will take gas which iscurrently being flared, into the offshoregas-gathering system to be installed nextyear under a separate contract, also inpartnership with Adamac.

Paragon Litwin, Stolt’s engineeringcompany in Paris, will carry out 150,000hours of engineering work for the project,the largest item being the detailed designof the production platform and topsides.

Stolt’s Chief Executive Officer,Bernard Vossier, said: “This importantaward adds considerably to our currentbacklog for Shell in Nigeria, where wealready have the Bonga, EA and offshoregas-gathering system contracts.

“This contract also provides valuablefabrication work for our yard at Warri,which this year has completed theAmenam fabrication work for TotalFinaElfwith a safety and quality performanceequal to the highest international stand-ards.” he added.

Venezuela’s Citgocompletes purchaseof Cit-Con Oil CorpCaracas — The Citgo Petroleum Cor-poration has completed the purchase ofConoco’s 35 per cent interest in the joint-venture Cit-Con Oil Corporation, it wasannounced last month.

The purchase of the stake in Cit-Con,which is located at Lake Charles, Louisi-ana, brings Citgo’s interest in the firm to100 per cent, effective from January 1,2002.

The Cit-Con facility includes a lubri-cant and wax refinery with a capacity of9,600 barrels/day of base oil and 2,000b/d of wax. As an extension of Citgo’s LakeCharles manufacturing site, the facility willbecome the lubricants area of the complex.

“We are pleased to complete this trans-action and bring the entire Cit-Con or-ganization into the Citgo family,” saidCitgo’s Senior Vice-President, Refining &Petrochemicals, Adolph Lechtenberger.

“Our focus now is to work towardsincreasing the operational efficiencies ofthe lubricants area to enhance Citgo’sposition as a major, international supplierof quality lubricants and waxes,” he con-cluded.

Citgo Petroleum, based in Tulsa,Oklahoma, is a refiner, transporter andmarketer of transportation fuels, lubri-cants, petrochemicals, refined waxes, as-phalt and other industrial products.

US energy demand set to increaseNEW YORK — As the US economy grows, en-ergy demand is projected to increase by 32per cent from 2000, reaching 131 quadril-lion British thermal units by 2020, assumingno changes in federal laws and regulations,according to the Energy Information Admin-istration in its Annual Energy Outlook 2002.In the reference case, the energy intensity ofthe US economy, measured as energy usedper dollar of GDP, is projected to decline at anaverage annual rate of 1.5 per cent through2020 as more efficient energy-using technolo-gies become available and penetrate the mar-ket. A high consumption-side technology caseassumes more rapid improvement in the cost,efficiencies, and adoption of advanced, energy-using technologies than in the reference case.

Ecuador, Peru negotiate joint projectsQUITO — Ecuador is negotiating the execu-tion of joint projects between its national oilcompany, PetroEcuador, and the Chileanstate company, Ancap, it was reported lastmonth. According to government sources,one of the schemes involved an associationbetween the two state companies for import-ing liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for domes-tic use. The two sides were also studying thepossibility of entering into a joint biddingprocess. Ecuador has already signed a con-tract with one company, Trafigura, to pro-vide LPG to Chile, a deal that would expire atthe end of 2002. Chile also imported quan-tities of gas and this contract would also fin-ish next year, the sources said. BetweenJanuary and October 2001, Ecuador im-ported 17.3 per cent more LPG than it did inthe corresponding period the previous year.

US petroleum demand still fallingNEW YORK — Total US petroleum productdeliveries in November (a measure of con-sumer demand) declined for the sixth out ofthe past seven months, compared with year-ago levels, according to the American Petro-leum Institute (API) in its latest MonthlyStatistical Report. Despite this, gasoline de-liveries increased by 2.2 per cent, stronglyinfluenced by retail prices, which were some23 per cent below their levels a year ago. Thereport noted that the overall decline repre-sented the most rapid fall for any Novemberin the past 10 years. It cited a number of fac-tors for the continuing product downslide,including the weak US economy, unseason-ably warm weather, fuel switching to thecheaper natural gas by utilities and manufac-turers, and the lacklustre state of the petro-chemical industry. On the supply side,Alaska’s crude oil production bounced backwith 1.02 million barrels/day.

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14 OPEC Bulletin

In briefIt is owned by PDV America Inc, an

indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of stateoil corporation Petroleos de Venezuela.

Indonesian delegationsubmits bid for LNGsupplies to ChinaJakarta — A high-level Indonesian del-egation has submitted a bid to supply liq-uefied natural gas (LNG) to China’sGuangdong industrial province.

The bid was tabled as five IndonesianMinisters, including the Energy and Min-eral Resources Minister, Dr PurnomoYusgiantoro, flew to China to meet Pre-mier Zhu Rongji, according to a JakartaPost report.

“This tender is very important for theTangguh LNG project and the developmentof the eastern Indonesian province of IrianJaya, so we must fully support it,” said theDirector General of Oil and Gas at theIndonesian Energy and Mines Ministry,Dr Rachmat Sudibjo.

Trade & Industry Minister, RiniSoewandhi; Minister of State Enterprises,Laksamana Sukardi; Maritime Affairs &Fisheries Minister, Rokhmin Dahuri; andResettlement & Regional InfrastructureMinister, Soenarno, all flew to Beijing insupport of the contract.

If successful, Pertamina and its produc-tion-sharing contractor BP would supplythe LNG from the Tangguh project in IrianJaya. Both Pertamina and BP have beenjointly marketing the gas from Tangguh.

The bid included a proposal byPertamina and BP to purchase Chinese-made products as a counter trade, shouldthe Tangguh project win the contract, saidthe Vice-President for Government Affairsat BP Indonesia, Satya W Yudha.

The winner of the bid, to supply 3.0million t/y of LNG from 2005, would beselected in three months’ time, he said.

The deal was vital for the greenfieldTangguh project, which would cost be-tween $3bn–4bn. Its construction wouldcommence once a firm LNG supply orderwas signed, officials stated.

Indonesia is fiercely competing withLNG exporters in Qatar, Malaysia andAustralia for the Guangdong contract, thefirst for China.

Sonatrach, Cypriot firmsign new explorationand production accord

Algiers — Algerian state oil and gas firmSonatrach and the Paris-based CypriotMedex Petroleum Company have signedan exploration and exploitation deal worth$23 million, it was announced last month.

The contract involves a 2,842 sq kmarea in block 221, in the Bordj Omar Idrissregion, in southern Algeria. The five-yearaccord covers a work programme that willbe implemented in three phases.

The programme includes the drillingof five wells, as well as 2-D seismic acqui-sition, and the reprocessing of other data.Under the terms of the contract, MedexPetroleum will fully finance the explora-tion work.

The Cypriot firm, which is alreadyinvolved in the Tunisian and Libyan oilsectors, is to set up a subsidiary in Algeriacalled Medex Petroleum Algeria.

The contract signed with Medex wasthe tenth concluded in 2001 by Sonatrachwith foreign partners. The deals amountto about $200m worth of investment.

Qatari Minister signsdebottlenecking deal forQatarGas LNG plantDoha — Qatari Minister of Energy andIndustry, Abdullah Bin Hamad Al Attiyah,signed a contract last month with Japa-nese and Italian companies covering thedebottlenecking of the QatarGas liquefiednatural gas (LNG) plant.

The $90 million contract is part of a$200m expansion scheme, which is ofstrategic importance to Qatar since it aimsto increase LNG production at theQatarGas company to 9.2m tonnes/yearby the year 2005. The firms involved areJapan’s Chiyoda and France’s Technip.

The completion of the project wouldbe a milestone in the QatarGas businessplan and would contribute towards thecompany’s vision of becoming the world’sleading supplier of LNG.

“Besides our traditional markets inAsia, we will be going west of the Suez in

Texaco sells refining, marketing interestsNEW YORK — The Texaco Alliance Trust hassigned definitive agreements to sell its inter-ests in refining, pipeline and retail fuel out-lets to the Shell Oil Company and SaudiRefining Inc (SRI, which is a subsidiary ofAramco Services Company) for $3.86 billion.The businesses being sold are Texaco’s formerdownstream interests, which were conductedin partnership with Shell and SRI, under thenames Equilon and Motiva. The two venturesown eight refineries, as well as 48,000 km ofpipeline, a trading enterprise, and marketproducts in about 23,000 branded servicestations in the United States. The Trust cur-rently owns 44 per cent of Equilon (with Shellholding 56 per cent), and 35 per cent ofMotiva (with Shell possessing 30 per cent andSRI the remaining 35 per cent). Upon com-pletion of the transaction, Shell will own 100per cent of Equilon and Shell and SRI willeach hold a 50 per cent interest in Motiva.

IEA still sees low demand growthPARIS — Global oil demand growth in 2001is not expected to exceed 140,000 barrels/day,to reach an average of 76.0 million b/d, butthis figure does not take fully into accountthe impact of the September 11 attacks onthe United States on oil consumption, accord-ing to the International Energy Agency (IEA).In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, theParis-based Agency maintained a forecaststeady from the previous month’s estimatesfor demand in 2001 and 2002. “The assess-ment of global oil demand growth for thisyear and next remains steady from last month,as oil statistics do not yet show a clear impactof the September terrorist attacks on con-sumption patterns,” the report observed.Moreover, the IEA said that certain forecastsof a faster-than-expected economic recoveryin the US also “fail to clearly rule out a pro-tracted global downturn.”

Mideast still EU’s main oil supplierBRUSSELS — The European Union’s (EU)main suppliers of crude oil remain the coun-tries of the Near and Middle East, althoughtheir share fell from 33.4 per cent in 1999 to31.1 per cent in 2000, according to the EU’sstatistics bureau, Eurostat. Imports from Af-rica went up from 21.4 per cent in 1999 to22 per cent in 2000, while Norway increasedits share in 2000 to account for 22.9 per centof EU crude imports, as opposed to 22.5 percent in 1999. The EU’s imports of petroleumproducts last year rose by 6.2 per cent from1999 figures to total 212.5 million t. EU oilimports from Iran fell in 2000 to 35.4m t,from 41.8m t in 1999, marking a drop of15.1 per cent.

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N E W S L I N E

January 2002 15

In briefa big way. Trains 4 and 5 will be launchedshortly,” Al Attiyah said.

In October, a memorandum of under-standing was signed between QatarGasand two other companies, Repsol of Spainand Italy’s Enel, for a feasibility study forsetting up train 4.

This train, to be fully operated byQatarGas, is planned to produce 4.4mt/y of LNG. Repsol and Enel would marketthe gas in the European market.

QatarGas owns and operates the firstLNG plant in Qatar, which currently hasan annual capacity of about 7m t/y fromthree trains.

It now sells LNG to Japan’s ChubuElectric Company under a sales-and-pur-chase agreement for 25 years. It also sup-plies gas to Spain, Turkey and the UnitedStates. In addition, QatarGas has estab-lished six additional country markets forspot sales.

QatarGas Vice-Chairman and Manag-ing Director, Faisal Al-Suwaidi, said thatQatarGas trains 4 and 5 were being builtwith an eye on the LNG market in Europe.

“We are also studying the long andmedium-term markets in the USA, theworld’s largest energy consumer,” he added.

QatarGas already has a significantpresence in the European market, after itstruck a deal with the Spanish company,Gas Natural, for delivery of up to 12.6mt/y of LNG by the year 2012.

Al-Suwaidi said that a portion of theadditional LNG produced by the debottle-necking of the QatarGas plant would besupplied to Gas Natural.

Kuwait’s KUFPEC beatsexpectations to makeprofit of $88 millionKuwait — The Kuwait Foreign Petro-leum Exploration Company (KUFPEC)has recorded a profit after tax of about $88million, exceeding the budget estimate by$15m, a top company official has disclosed.

The Chairman & Managing Directorof the company, Bader Al-Khashti, said thefirm entered an intensive phase of explo-ration operations with expenditure reach-ing $344m, which was 33 per cent morethan originally estimated by the compa-ny’s budget.

The year had been exceptionally goodfor the company with regard to theamount of oil produced, which increasedby 32,150 barrels/day, an increase of nineper cent, compared with the previous year,he was quoted by the Kuwaiti NewsAgency as saying.

Al-Khashti said the company expecteda decrease in expenditure and an increasein profit with the company’s involvementin new oil field development projects.

KUFPEC, which is a subsidiary of theKuwait Petroleum Corporation, hasprojects in Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, China,Malaysia, Tunisia and Australia, in addi-tion to new exploration schemes in Alge-ria, Libya and Thailand.

Turkey to start importsof natural gas from Iran,says Energy MinisterAnkara — Turkish Energy Minister,Zeki Cakan, said last month that his coun-try would very soon start importing gasfrom Iran.

The daily Zaman quoted Cakan assaying that Iranian and Turkish technicalexperts had reached an agreement on thetechnical preparedness of a gas gaugingstation on the Bazargan border point andthat imports were set to start.

He stressed that gas imports from Iranwere of great importance to Turkey becausethey would meet the country’s householdand industrial fuel demands in the east ofthe state.

Turkey’s oil and gas pipelines companyhad earlier announced that the countrywas to start importing Iranian gas fromlate November, once the gauging stationon the border point was completed.

Officials from the Turkish companynow said that from December, Turkeywould import 9.13 million cubic metres/year of gas from Iran. This figure wouldrise to 3.3bn cu m/y. They added thatIranian natural gas would reach 57 Turk-ish cities by 2003, once related gas supplyprojects were finalized.

Under the terms of an agreementsigned by Iran and Turkey in 1996, Tur-key is to import up to 10bn cu m/y of gasfrom Iran for 25 years.

In a related move, Iran has established

ASEAN gas pipeline plan revisedSINGAPORE — The master plan for the trans-ASEAN gas pipeline (TAGP) has been revisedwith proposed routes changed and the costbrought down to $7 billion from the $15bnoriginally estimated in 1996. The revised TAGP

blueprint had changed some of the routes ofthe proposed pipeline link between south-eastAsian countries and cut the length to 4,000km from 7,000 km, according to the Execu-tive Director of the ASEAN Centre for En-ergy in Manila, Dr Guillermo R Balce. Amemorandum of understanding would besigned by ASEAN nations on implementingthe amended TAGP plan during a meeting inBali, Indonesia, in July 2002, he noted.ASEAN governments were supporting theTAGP project, to be completed by 2020, withseven new pipeline links, to be built between2002 and 2016.

US oil industry pleased with OCS saleNEW YORK — The American Petroleum In-stitute (API) has said here that the successfulcompletion of OCS lease sale 181 “sends astrong signal” that the United States and theoil and natural gas industry were committedto developing secure domestic energy sources.The lease sale — the first such sale in the east-ern Gulf of Mexico since 1988 — was con-ducted in New Orleans by the US MineralsManagement Service. “We are pleased by therobust interest in this sale demonstrated bythe oil and natural gas industry,” said the API’sUpstream General Manager, Betty Anthony.“Its success is extremely important to ournation’s efforts to achieve greater energy in-dependence, particularly in the light of re-cent events. It sends a strong signal thatAmerica — and our industry — are commit-ted to developing secure domestic energysources to help meet the country’s energyneeds,” she added.

Major expansion planned for EkofiskBRUSSELS — A major expansion worth be-tween $1.7 billion and $2.2bn is being con-sidered by Phillips Petroleum’s Norwegianunit at the Ekofisk oil field in the North Sea,it was reported last month. The plans includedthe construction of three new platforms andthe removal of some old installations and re-mote control capabilities from onshore facili-ties. Under the plan, Phillips aimed to raiseEkofisk production from the current level ofaround 400,000 barrels/day to around425,000 b/d. Phillips Petroleum Norway’sPresident and Managing Director, Lars Takla,said: “We are going to inform the other li-cence holders and we estimate that we willsubmit a plan for the expansion and opera-tions to the authorities by the end of 2002.”

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N E W S L I N E

16 OPEC Bulletin

In briefa national gas export company, accordingto a report in the Tehran Times last month.

Majid Qasemi, who is the formerManaging Director of the Iran Steel Com-pany, and Isfahan’s Zobahan Company,will head the newly-formed firm.

The newspaper said that Iran had beenrelatively inactive in its exports of naturalgas and the establishment of the companylooked to mark the official start of a na-tional enterprise.

Saudi Crown Prince saysmore steps will be takento encourage investorsRiyadh — Saudi Arabian Crown PrinceAbdullah has said that the governmentwould undertake more steps to promoteforeign investment in the Kingdom.

“Be assured that, God willing, ourgovernment will continue to boost andfacilitate investment,” he told a large groupof businessmen during a reception at hispalace, the Arab News reported last month.

Saudi Arabia has stepped up its cam-paign to attract domestic and foreign in-vestment, in its bid to diversify the coun-try’s sources of revenue.

Riyadh opened up to foreign invest-ment in 2000, after establishing the SaudiArabian General Investment Authority.

In the last 18 months, Sagia has given583 projects worth more than $9.3 bil-lion to foreign and local investors, and isplanning more in the near future.

Earlier in 2001, Riyadh signed amemorandum of understanding witheight international oil companies for themulti-billion dollar gas initiative, givingthem exploration rights in three major gasfields in the Kingdom.

Jordanian Cabinetokays new Iraqi crudeoil pipeline projectAmman — The Jordanian Cabinet hasapproved a pipeline project that wouldextend from Iraq to Jordan and wouldsupply more than 5 million tonnes/yearof Iraqi crude oil to Jordan, it was an-nounced last month.

The Ministry of Energy and Mineralssaid earlier it had completed documentsrelated to the specification and conditionsof the pipeline project bid and would lodgeit with the Cabinet for approval.

Both Iraq and Jordan consider theproject strategic since it would supplyJordan with its future needs of crude oil.The pipeline would be operational in2005.

The 700-km pipeline, costing an es-timated $300m, would be built in twophases — the first starting from the Iraqi-Jordanian border to the Jordanian oil re-finery near Al-Zarqa town, and the sec-ond from the border to the Al-Hadithaarea in Iraq.

The two countries have also agreed thatIraq would supply Jordan with 5.5m t ofcrude oil and products over the next year.

UAE bank forecasts 28per cent drop in OPECrevenues for year 2001Dubai — The total revenues of OPECMembers (not including Iraq) will prob-ably drop by around 28 per cent in 2001to $197 billion, down from $275bn in2000, according to a new report by theUAE-based Emirates Industrial Bank.

It noted that the average crude oil priceof $22/barrel for 2001 was 24 per centlower than the average of $29/b for 2000.

The report added there had recentlybeen fears of a further drop in oil pricesto the levels of 1998, if OPEC entered intoprice competition with non-OPEC.

However, these fears were alleviated inDecember when OPEC confirmed itwould reduce production by another 1.5million b/d, after five non-OPEC nationspledged cuts totalling 462,500 b/d, not faroff the proposed 500,000 b/d.

The bank report went on to say thatthe future was not so bleak, and referredto positive factors that could help in sta-bilizing price levels, including an improve-ment in the situation in Afghanistan.

Other factors that could help boost de-mand for oil and thus support prices in-cluded a possible upturn in the tourismand air transport sectors, both of whichwere badly hit by the September 11 at-tacks on the United States.

Malaysia remains exporter until 2008KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia is not expectedto start importing crude oil until after 2008,when domestic petroleum consumption ex-ceeds production, according to the country’sDeputy Minister responsible for Energy Af-fairs, Tengku Adnan Tengku Mansor. He toldparliament last month that, as of January2001, Malaysia had 3.39 billion barrels ofcrude oil reserves, which could last for 16years, if output was consistent at 650,000b/d. He added that the nation’s natural gasreserves stood at 82.52 trillion cubic metres,almost four times those of crude. TengkuAdnan said several steps had been taken tominimize the need to import petroleum, in-cluding encouraging investors to increase ef-forts to look for other sources of crude oil inMalaysian waters.

TotalFinaElf says Angolan field onstreamPARIS — French oil company TotalFinaElfsaid last month that the Girassol field in theAngolan deep offshore had been broughtonstream, more than three years after the de-cision to develop the field was made. Girassolis operated by the French firm, under a con-cession granted by the Angolan national oilcompany, Sonangol. TotalFinaElf has 40 percent of Girassol and works in a partnershipwith Esso (20 per cent), BP (16.67 per cent),Statoil (13.33 per cent), and Norsk Hydro(10 per cent). The field is the largest deepoffshore development to be brought onstreamworldwide. It is located in a water depth of1,350 metres, some 150 km from the Angolancoast. A spokeswoman for TotalFinaElf saidit was hoped to soon reach plateau produc-tion of 200,000 b/d by the 1Q of 2002.

UK output again falls below 2m b/dLONDON — United Kingdom oil productionfrom the North Sea fell for the second timethis year to below 2.0 million barrels/day inSeptember, according to the latest report fromthe Royal Bank of Scotland. It recorded Brit-ish average daily oil production during themonth at 1.98m b/d, some 1.7 per cent downfrom August output and 13 per cent lowerthan the same month last year. The fall re-sulted in the UK’s daily oil revenue for theNorth Sea declining to $50m, compared witha daily $76m in September 2000, when pricesaveraged $33.7/b. “With production fallingbelow 2m b/d for the second time this year,recovery in output following the oil pricecollapse of 1998-99 has still to occur,” saidSenior Economist, Tony Woods. He sug-gested that further weakness in prices lookedlikely over the coming months, but added thatwhile this was not of immediate concern, asustained period of lower prices would be.

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January 2002 17

M A R K E T R E V I E W

Table A: Monthly average spot quotations of OPEC Reference Basket and selectedcrudes including differentials $/b

Year-to-date averageNovember 01 December 01 2000 2001

Reference Basket 17.65 17.53 27.60 23.12Arabian Light 17.82 17.99 26.81 23.06Dubai 17.62 17.60 26.25 22.83Bonny Light 18.92 18.78 28.49 24.50Saharan Blend 19.00 19.08 28.77 24.74Minas 18.29 17.64 28.74 24.11Tia Juana Light 15.28 14.89 26.31 20.35Isthmus 16.61 16.73 27.80 22.22

Other crudesBrent 18.80 18.58 28.44 24.46WTI 19.49 19.40 30.37 26.00

DifferentialsWTI/Brent 0.69 0.82 1.93 1.54Brent/Dubai 1.18 0.98 2.19 1.63

M A R K E T R E V I E W

Crude oil price movements

The monthly price of OPEC’s ReferenceBasket2 weakened for the fourth con-secutive month in December, when it lost12¢/b to average $17.53/b; however, thefall was less than in the previous months.Compared with December 2000, theBasket has lost more than 27 per cent ofits value. At the disaggregated level, someof the Basket’s components posted gains,while others finished lower. Leading therise were Arabian Light and Isthmus, whichincreased by 17¢/b and 12¢/b, respec-tively, closely followed by Saharan Blend,which gained 8¢/b. On the other hand,Minas and Tia Juana Light posted thebiggest losses, falling by 65¢/b and 39¢/b,respectively. Brent-related Bonny Lightand Dubai were 14¢/b and 2¢/b lower,with respect to November (see Table A).

On a weekly basis, the Basket startedthe month with a solid recovery during thefirst week, but then it reversed the trend,to plunge to its lowest level for the year,averaging $16.76/b during the secondweek. It changed its course again andposted solid gains during the third week,consolidating its strength in the last weekof December. Crude oil markets wereprimarily influenced by news and specu-lation that preceded the OPEC/non-

OPEC agreement to curb production andbring fundamentals into balance. Crudeprices displayed a great deal of volatility,responding to the back-and-forth negotia-tions and announcements that were aprelude to the final agreement in Cairo onDecember 28. During the first week ofDecember, crude prices strengthened,following the announcement by Russiathat it was prepared to cut exports by150,000 b/d; however, the market wasconcerned about the fate of the OPEC/non-OPEC agreement, as conflicting newsreports started to emerge. Meanwhile, Iraqsigned a memorandum of understandingwith the United Nations, dissipating con-cern about a disruption to its exports.Bearish fundamentals and rising crudeand product inventories contributed tothe price collapse in the second week. Adelay in finalizing non-OPEC’s side of theproduction agreement, with regard to theproposed 500,000 b/d cut, and the pos-sibility of a Meeting of the OPEC Con-ference late in December increaseduncertainty and bearish sentiment. Oman’sannouncement of a cut of only 25,000b/d, instead of the pledged 40,000 b/d,and concern that Russia could side-stepthe agreement by increasing refined prod-uct exports, brought scepticism into themarket. Prices recovered during the thirdweek, on the expectation that OPEC and

December1

1. This section is based on the OPEC MonthlyOil Market Report prepared by the ResearchDivision of the Secretariat — published inmid-month and containing up-to-date analy-sis, additional information, graphs andtables. Researchers and other readers maydownload the publication in PDF formatfrom our Web site (www.opec.org), providedOPEC is credited as source for any usage.

2. An average of Saharan Blend, Minas, BonnyLight, Arabian Light, Dubai, Tia JuanaLight and Isthmus.

non-OPEC production/export cuts wouldbe announced during the OPEC Co-ordination Meeting in Cairo on Decem-ber 28. The market received more positivenews during the week, with Oman an-nouncing that it would cut production by40,000 b/d and positive comments by theRussian Prime Minister, MikhailKasyanov, on an official visit to Ven-ezuela. Adding to the bullish sentimentwas the statement by Venezuela’s Ministerof Energy and Mines, Alvaro SilvaCalderon, that an agreement on produc-tion cuts was expected to be reached soon.On December 28, the Consultative Meet-ing, after reviewing announcements bynon-OPEC producers regarding theircombined pledged reduction of 462,500b/d, confirmed its decision to implementthe previously announced production cutof 1.5m b/d for six months, effective fromJanuary 1, 2002.

US and European marketsCrude oil markets in the USA were

undermined by weak refiners’ margins,limited demand, as a consequence of thesluggish economy, and rising crude andproduct inventories in December. Duringthe second week of the month, the weakestrefiners’ margins in more than two yearsprompted cuts in refinery runs. The refin-ery utilization rate dropped to 91.4 per

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18 OPEC Bulletin

M A R K E T R E V I E W

cent during the first week and 90.0 percent in the second, but rose slightly to 90.2per cent in the third. Meanwhile, crude oilstocks grew consistently throughout themonth, rising by almost 21m b, comparedwith December 2000. Relatively weakprices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI)kept the transatlantic arbitrage closed toa large extent, making shipments of NorthSea crudes, as well as West African crudes,to the US East Coast generally unfeasible.There was speculation that a number ofcargoes would move to Europe. Venezuelaquickly placed some cargoes of Mesa atvery strong levels in Europe, with Argen-tina following suit. Later efforts by Ecua-dor to divert some Oriente volumes werecapped by a shortage of prompt vesselavailability. Prices firmed towards themonth’s end in North-West Europe, es-pecially for sour crudes, partly due to thecontinued delay in Urals loading at theBlack Sea port of Novorossiysk. The WTI/Brent differential was almost non-exist-ent, closing any prospect of a demandimprovement in the USA; meanwhile,refiners’ margins remained weak, improv-ing slightly towards the last week of themonth.

Far Eastern marketsSentiment was bullish during the first

week of the month, since this is the timewhen trading for January cargoes is in fullswing. The market drew support fromhealthy Taiwanese demand, which ac-quired 4m b of regional oil in its monthlyimport tender, twice the usual amount.Market activity diminished, after mostJanuary volumes had found outlets, leav-ing activity confined to partial cargoes andtrading optimization. Typically thin mar-ket activity, in the interval between monthstrading, led to a weakening of crude prices.This situation was aggravated by concernover the OPEC/non-OPEC production/export cuts. Benchmark medium-sourOman slid into a discount to its officialselling price, due to discussions about earlyFebruary deliveries. Earlier in the month,cargoes had traded at a 15–20¢/b pre-mium. Towards the month-end, tradingin the February loading of light sweetgrades started at firmer levels. However,demand was relatively thin, as end-userswaited to hear the final word on the OPEC/non-OPEC production/export cuts.

margins. Accordingly, a lower US refineryutilization rate, at 91 per cent, reduced thesupply of the main refined product, gaso-line, which lagged behind the sustainedstrong trend in apparent demand; this ledto a 4.4m b draw on gasoline stocks duringthe month. These were the first stock-draws since August. Consequently, gaso-line enjoyed a modest gain of 37¢/b, afterthree months of huge losses. Unusualarbitrage of heating oil and fuel oil fromthe US market to Europe failed to supportthe former and other distillate derivativeprices, but boosted the latter’s squeezedmarket. Therefore, gasoil plunged by$1.10/b, undermined by rising stocks amidunseasonably warmer weather. Fuel oil,on the other hand, soared by $1.06/b; thisreflected the already tight market, due to

Table C: Refinery operations in selected OECD countries

Refinery throughput (m b/d) Refinery utilization (%)1

Oct 01 Nov Dec 01 Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01

USA 15.33 15.10 15.03 92.7 91.3 90.9France 1.77 1.81 1.74 93.2 95.6 92.0Germany 2.05R 2.26R 2.24 90.7R 100.2R 99.0Italy 1.77R 1.78R 1.79 74.9R 75.3R 75.9UK 1.62R 1.61R 1.67 91.8R 90.7R 94.4Eur-162 12.21R 12.32R 12.24 88.8R 90.3R 89.7Japan 3.79 4.15 na 76.4 83.7 na

1. Refinery capacities used are in barrels per calendar day. na Not available.2. European Union plus Norway. R Revised since last issue.Sources: OPEC Statistics, Argus, Euroilstock Inventory Report/IEA.

Product markets andrefinery operations

Distillate markets were exceptionally weakin December, in contrast to their usualseasonal peaks, indicating rising stocksand a slow-down in demand. Refiners’margins in the Atlantic basin remainednegative, resulting in sustainable refineryrun cuts (see Table B).

US Gulf marketProduct markets exhibited divergent

trends, as both gasoline and fuel oil rose,but gasoil maintained its downward direc-tion in December, which was character-ized by slashed refinery runs, similar to theprevious month, in response to poor profit

Table B: Selected refined product prices $/b

Change Oct 01 Nov 01 Dec 01 Dec/Nov

US GulfRegular gasoline (unleaded) 23.63 20.99 21.35 0.37Gasoil (0.2%S) 25.42 22.13 21.02 –1.10Fuel oil (3.0%S) 15.59 13.62 14.68 1.06

RotterdamPremium gasoline (unleaded) 23.50R 20.20 19.30 –0.90Gasoil (0.2%S) 27.41 23.03 21.35 –1.68Fuel oil (3.5%S) 16.07 14.67 14.95 0.28

SingaporePremium gasoline (unleaded) 22.23 20.75 22.61 1.86Gasoil (0.5%S) 25.53 21.87 20.11 –1.76Fuel oil (380 cst) 18.72 15.46 16.44 0.98

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In the second week, prices were vola-tile, as the market was unsure about theaction OPEC might take. After the cus-tomary weekend short-covering on Fri-day, which took prices higher, weakproduct prices, that led to narrowing re-finery margins, pulled crude lower. Bear-ish API data, showing a build in crude,gasoline and distillate stocks, caused pricesto move further down; however, DoE datapublished the next day showed a contra-dicting draw on crude oil and gasoline anda lesser build in distillate stocks, therebylifting some of the pressure on prices. Acut in refinery runs and anticipation ofcolder weather at the end of Decemberalso helped; shortly after, prices slipped to$18.12/b.

A recurrence of weekend short-cover-ing took place in the third week, this timeignited by refinery glitches and WTImoving to $19.23/b. Norway’s announce-ment that it would cut 150,000 b/d of itsproduction in solidarity with OPEC sus-tained prices, and a high US distillatedemand figure of 4.6m b/d, shown by APIstatistics, gave them a further push. How-ever, since the market was still unsure ofOPEC’s intentions, floor traders andspeculative paper started selling, pushingthe price down once more.

Again in the fourth week, a short-covering rally occurred, pushing WTI to$21.27/b. Providing most support to therally was the record number of non-com-mercial shorts of 71,928 contracts aheadof the OPEC Meeting. After OPEC an-nounced its decision, the market was pres-sured by concern that demand was so weakthat even the pledged cuts would notremedy the situation. WTI finished theyear at $19.84/b.

The tanker market

OPEC area spot-chartering declined forthe third consecutive month in Decem-ber, falling by a sharp 3.00m b/d to amonthly average of 7.82m b/d, the lowestlevel in the last three years. There wereseveral reasons for this reduction. Amongthem were the significant improvement inOPEC’s compliance level, in response tofalling oil prices, and the decline in Iraqioil exports, under the UN oil-for-foodprogramme. Compared with the corre-

the increased amount of processed fuel oiland cargo movements from the USA andsome parts of Latin America to Europe,particularly to the Mediterranean basin.

Refiners’ margins in the US Gulf re-mained negative, almost equal to the pre-vious two months’ levels (see Table B).

US refinery throughput continued thedownward trend it had sustained in thesecond half of 2001, falling by a slight70,000 b/d to 15.03m b/d. This corre-sponded to a utilization rate of 90.9 percent, which was 2.7 percentage pointsbelow the December runs a year earlier(see Table C).

Rotterdam marketUnlike the firm fuel oil price, light

product markets in Rotterdam were ham-pered by stubbornly abundant supply,where the gasoil value led product priceslower for the second consecutive month,contrary to its typical seasonal peak anddespite the cold weather which dominatedEurope most of the month. Gasoil fell by22 per cent, compared with its averageOctober level, undermined by sufficientend-user stocks in Germany and subduedbarge activity on the Rhine river, due tohigh freight rates from Rotterdam toEurope’s main land. Gasoline decreasedby only 18 per cent below its Octobervalue, assisted by modest activity inarbitrage trading. Strong bunker demandduring the first part of December, whichwas characterized by scarce availability,together with elevated crude prices, whichoccurred in the final part of the month, inaddition to healthy buying from Mediter-ranean basin utilities in the wake of theextremely cold weather, were cited as themain reasons for a modest rise of 28¢/bin the fuel oil price.

Refiners’ margins moved deeperinto negative territory, resulting largelyfrom light product price weakness (seeTable B).

Refinery throughput in Eur-16 (EU +Norway) declined by 80,000 b/d to12.24m b/d, reflecting refinery run cutson weakened refiners’ margins. The equiva-lent utilization rate was 89.7 per cent,which was two per cent lower than in thecorresponding period of 2000 (see Table C).

Singapore marketThe light and the heavy ends of the

barrel surged in December, erasing someof the falls of the previous two months,while gasoil continued the losses that hadprevailed since September. Gasoline soaredby $1.86/b, bolstered by continued strongIndonesian demand, reduced exports fromChinese refineries and large purchases fromVietnam and, to a lesser extent, Sri Lanka.Although large volumes of gasoil wereshipped to Europe and the usual destina-tions like Latin America, its market fun-damentals remained weak amid abundantsupply, and thus it fell by a substantial$1.76/b, amid sluggish regional demand.Fuel oil soared by 98¢/b, on a combina-tion of supporting factors which occurredmainly in the first two weeks of the month.One was healthy buying from China, whilethe other was the fact that fuel oil’s pre-mium in Singapore was too small to prompteast-bound arbitrage from the tight Medi-terranean market.

The refiners’ margin for Dubai wasbarely positive in December, boosted bythe resurgence in the gasoline and fuel oilmarkets (see Table B).

Refinery throughput in Japan re-bounded by 360,000 b/d in November,which equated to an 83.7 per centutilization rate, a rate that was 4.2 percent lower than in November 2000 (seeTable C).

The oil futures market

Nymex WTI started December on a strongnote, as the violence in the Middle Eastcreated a wave of short-covering in a heav-ily shorted market. However, the senti-ment soon changed after the API weeklydata showed a big build in crude oil,gasoline and distillate stocks. The USDepartment of Energy (DoE) came upwith even more bearish data, when distil-late stocks were shown to be 15 per centabove last year’s levels and nearly 9m babove the five-year average. This, com-bined with a build of 4.2m b in crude oilstocks caused by higher imports, put heavypressure on storage in the US East Coastand caused product prices to collapse.Even the announcement by Russia that itwould cut 150,000 b/d from its produc-tion could not stop the price decline thatcontinued during the week, when WTIreached $18.54/b.

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sponding month last year, current OPECfixtures were 540,000 b/d lower. Non-OPEC spot-chartering declined in De-cember by 1.03m b/d to 6.53m b/d, inco-operation with OPEC’s efforts to sta-bilize the oil market. Thus, global spotfixtures decreased by 4.03m b/d to 14.35mb/d, which was 440,000 b/d below lastyear’s level. The OPEC area’s share ofglobal spot-chartering decreased by 4.37percentage points to 54.52 per cent, andthis level was 2.01 percentage points be-low the previous year’s share.

Spot fixtures from the Middle East onthe eastbound long-haul route declined by1.27m b/d to 2.49m b/d, while, on thewestbound route, they rose by 80,000b/d to 1.16m b/d. Therefore, the share ofMiddle East eastbound fixtures of OPEC’stotal fixtures decreased by 2.91 percentagepoints to 31.86 per cent, while the west-bound share improved by 4.87 percentagepoints to 14.77 per cent; together, theyaccounted for 46.63 per cent of totalchartering in the OPEC area, and this was1.95 percentage points higher than in theprevious month. Preliminary estimates ofsailings from the OPEC area declined by1.32m b/d to 21.73m b/d, which was 5.72percentage points below the previousmonth’s level. Sailings from the MiddleEast declined by 1.66m b/d to 14.44mb/d, which was about 67 per cent of totalOPEC sailings. Arrivals in the US GulfCoast, East Coast and the Caribbean roseby 530,000 b/d to 8.30m b/d, while ar-rivals in North-West Europe and Euromedmoved 270,000 b/d higher to 6.52mb/d and 640,000 b/d to 5.75m b/d, re-spectively. Estimated oil-at-sea on De-cember 30 was 452m b, which was 21mb below the level observed at the end ofthe previous month.

Despite the sizable reduction in thevolumes of global chartering, the VLCCmarket in the Middle East and the Suezmaxmarket in West Africa and North-WestEurope enjoyed positive trends in Decem-ber. Monthly average freight rates edgedhigher, assisted by a surge in activity at thebeginning of the month, causing tankersupply to be slightly tighter, especially formodern tonnage, but not actually short.The rates for VLCC tankers trading fromthe Middle East on eastbound and west-bound long-haul routes gained three pointseach to Worldscale 40 and W38, respec-

tively. Suezmax freight rates on the routesfrom West Africa and North-West Eu-rope to the US Gulf Coast firmed duringthe first half of the month, amid higherfixtures ahead of the year-end holiday;but, afterwards, they declined slowly, av-eraging monthly increases of four pointsand eight points to W72 and W83, respec-tively. Meanwhile, it was not a good monthfor Aframax tankers trading on the short-haul routes, since the market suffered froma lack of enquiries and ample tonnageavailability that weighed heavily on freightrates. Thus, monthly average freight rateson the routes across the Mediterraneanand to North-West Europe lost 24 pointseach to W117 and W114, respectively,while they dropped by 30 points to W100on the route from the Caribbean to the USGulf Coast. Freight rates for 70–100,000dwt tankers on the route from Indonesiato the US West Coast improved by amarginal six points to W105.

Product tanker markets, which wereweak in November, retreated again inDecember in most trading areas, under-mined by accumulated tonnage resultingfrom lower demand, and this drove freightrates further down. In the Middle East,monthly average freight rates for voyagesto the Far East decreased by 29 points toW146 on lower trading activity. Rates onthe routes from North-West Europe andthe Caribbean to the US Gulf Coast de-clined by 15 points to W178 and 16points to W201, respectively. For the short-haul voyages from Singapore to Japan,rates dropped by 14 points to a monthlyaverage of W173. The exceptions were theroutes across the Mediterranean and fromthe Mediterranean to North-West Eu-rope, where the rates rose by a slight fivepoints to W190 and four points to W175,respectively.

World oil demand

Historical dataDemand in developing countries has

been revised up by nearly 130,000 b/d for2000, compared with the last report, asfurther data on current consumption inthose countries has become available, ei-ther through direct communications orfrom secondary sources. As a result, totalworld consumption in 2000 is now esti-

mated at 75.83m b/d, compared with thepreviously mentioned 75.70m b/d.

Estimate for 2001

WorldSignificant modifications have been

made to 1Q, 2Q and 3Q figures, duemainly to adjustments to the data relatingto developing countries. The upward re-vision to 4Q estimates is largely the resultof adjustments to estimated demand in theformer Soviet Union (FSU) and China.Consumption for 2001 is, therefore, esti-mated to average 75.86m b/d, nearly thesame as in 2000. On a regional basis,demand is seen to decrease by 190,000b/d in the OECD and by 30,000 b/d indeveloping countries. However, demandis expected to rise by 240,000 b/d in theformer centrally planned economies(CPEs), mainly because of increases inFSU consumption.

On a quarterly basis, compared withthe year-earlier figure, world demand grewby 0.93 per cent, or 700,000 b/d, toaverage 76.61m b/d in 1Q. It is estimatedto have grown by 0.83 per cent, or 610,000b/d, to average 74.67m b/d in 2Q. The3Q and 4Q, however, are expected toexperience negative growth. The reasonsare the decelerating economic growth in3Q and 4Q and the declining jet fuelconsumption in 4Q. Demand in 3Q01 isnow estimated at 75.70m b/d, which isabout 530,000 b/d, or 0.69 per cent, lessthan that of 3Q00. Likewise, 4Q demandin 2001 is expected to be 76.45m b/d,nearly 650,000 b/d, or 0.85 per cent, lessthan that of the year 2000.

OECDHaving grown by as little as 0.3 per

cent last year, OECD product deliveriesare expected to post a decline of 190,000b/d, or 0.4 per cent, to average 47.65mb/d in 2001. This drop is the sum of a110,000 b/d decline, a 30,000 b/d rise anda 100,000 b/d decline in North America,Western Europe and the OECD Pacific,respectively. The declines in 3Q and, es-pecially, 4Q have contributed to the yearlydrop in demand in the OECD in 2001.In addition to the weakening GDP growthrate prospects in OECD Europe and,especially, in the OECD Pacific, the esti-mated lower jet fuel consumption, nota-

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bly in the USA, will be responsible for theoverall lower demand in the region.

The total OECD oil requirement inOctober 2001 witnessed a 358,000 b/d,or 0.75 per cent, decline, compared withthe same period last year. This was theresult of drops of 0.60 per cent in NorthAmerica, 0.75 per cent in Western Europeand 1.19 per cent in OECD Pacific de-mand. However, the total OECD oil re-quirement during the first ten months ofthe year was nearly the same as in thecomparable period last year. On a sub-regional basis, 118,000 b/d growth inOECD Europe was totally offset by dropsof 16,000 b/d in North America and103,000 b/d in OECD Pacific demand inJanuary–October 2001.

Developing countriesOil demand in developing countries is

now expected to experience a minor dropof 30,000 b/d, or 0.1 per cent, to average18.75m b/d for the year. The estimatedgrowth rate in consumption has beenrevised up slightly for the Asian group ofcountries from the previous –0.1 per centto 0.2 per cent. The fundamental factorbehind the lack of growth in demand isthat Asian regional GDP is expected to growat a lower-than-anticipated rate. Theseeconomies are highly export-dependentand are extremely reliant upon the healthof their trading partners. The demandgrowth rates for Latin America and Africahave also been revised down.

Other regionsApparent demand in the former CPEs

is estimated to grow by 240,000 b/d, or2.6 per cent, to average 9.46m b/d in2001; this is higher than the previousfigure of 9.37m b/d. Revisions to the tradeand production data for 1Q show that

apparent FSU demand grew by 7.4 percent, or 273,000 b/d, compared with theyear-earlier figure. The latest assessmentsindicate that there has been growth of 3.4per cent, or 124,000 b/d, in 2Q. Weestimate a significant rise of 6.19 per cent,or 218,000 b/d, in apparent consumptionin 3Q, coupled with a minor increase of1.32 per cent, or 550,000 b/d, in 4Q.During 1Q and 2Q, net exports were318,000 b/d and 513,000 b/d higher thanin the corresponding quarters of 2000.The 3Q and 4Q could register substantialgains of 337,000 b/d and 441,000 b/d,respectively. Reasonably favourable oilprices and the need for more revenue, inorder to service international loans, seemto be the motives behind consistently ris-ing exports. Indigenous production andtrade data for the first three months of theyear shows a considerable drop in Chineseapparent consumption. According to thelatest figures, apparent demand declinedby 7.5 per cent during 1Q. Even thoughthe decline seems huge, one should notforget that this comparison is made with1Q00, when demand surged by recordlevels. Second quarter apparent demand,however, demonstrated a significant riseof 12.26 per cent. This is in line with theconsiderable recovery in total imports,which registered an impressive 44.46 percent rise in 2Q. Third quarter consump-tion is expected to show a 4.49 per centdecline, to be countered by a healthy 8.61

per cent gain in 4Q. Due to the size andthe importance of China in the overalldemand picture, we shall continue tomonitor closely further developments.

Forecasts for 2002Although all quarterly averages have

been adjusted, the average world demandforecast for 2002 has remained almost thesame, 76.25m b/d, compared with theprevious issue’s forecast of 76.23m b/d.However, the average yearly incrementnow stands at 390,000 b/d, or 0.5 per cent,which is nearly 110,000 b/d lower than the500,000 b/d (0.7 per cent) given in theprevious report. This is due to the upwardrevision to the 2001 average.

The estimated growth level for 2002is significantly higher than that that of2001. However, this assessment is subjectto further adjustment, as more informa-tion becomes available on such majorfactors as the economic growth outlook,the trend in air travel and jet fuel con-sumption, prices and the weather.

World oil supply

Non-OPEC

Figures for 2001The 2001 non-OPEC supply figure

has been revised down by 30,000 b/d to46.49m b/d, compared with the last re-

Table D: FSU net oil exports m b/d

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Year

1998 2.77 3.02 3.18 3.20 3.041999 3.12 3.62 3.52 3.49 3.442000 3.97 4.13 4.47 4.01 4.1420011 4.28 4.65 4.86 4.45 4.5620022 4.86 5.20 5.00 4.98 5.01

1. Estimate.2. Forecast.

Table E: OPEC crude oil production, based on secondary sources 1,000 b/d

Dec 01/2000 3Q01 Nov 01* Dec 01* 4Q01 2001 Nov 01

Algeria 808 831 809 813 810 820 4Indonesia 1,279 1,209 1,169 1,185 1,181 1,216 16IR Iran 3,671 3,706 3,481 3,460 3,478 3,665 –21Iraq 2,551 2,487 2,787 2,072 2,571 2,388 –715Kuwait 2,101 2,014 1,942 1,949 1,950 2,032 8SP Libyan AJ 1,405 1,366 1,302 1,302 1,307 1,361 0Nigeria 2,031 2,087 2,086 2,110 2,114 2,097 24Qatar 698 691 629 620 632 683 –9Saudi Arabia 8,247 7,898 7,525 7,499 7,540 7,915 –25UAE 2,252 2,122 2,030 2,021 2,029 2,162 –10Venezuela 2,897 2,801 2,704 2,693 2,701 2,830 –11

Total OPEC 27,942 27,212 26,463 25,725 26,314 27,169 –738

* Not all sources available.Totals may not add, due to independent rounding.

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port. The quarterly distribution figure for4Q remains unchanged at 47.06m b/d,while those for the 1Q, 2Q and 3Q havebeen revised down by 30,000 b/d, 30,000b/d and 50,000 b/d to 46.24m b/d, 46.01mb/d and 46.63m b/d, respectively. Theyearly average increase is estimated at710,000 b/d, compared with the 2000figure.

Expectations for 2002Our 2002 non-OPEC supply forecast

has been revised down by 190,000 b/d to47.36m b/d, which is an increase of870,000 b/d, compared with the figureestimated for 2001. The quarterly distri-bution is estimated at 47.10m b/d, 46.88mb/d, 47.51m b/d and 47.95m b/d, respec-tively. The downward revisions have takeninto consideration the pledges by somenon-OPEC suppliers to co-operate withOPEC in balancing the market.

The FSU’s net oil export forecast for2001 has been revised down by 20,000 b/dto 4.56m b/d, while the 2000 figure re-mains unchanged at 4.14m b/d, comparedwith the last report. The forecast for 2002also remains unchanged, at 5.01m b/d;however, as more data becomes available inlight of Russia’s pledge, this number maybe revised down accordingly (see Table D).

OPEC natural gas liquidsOPEC NGL figures for 1998–2001 have

been revised up by 230,000 b/d, 200,000b/d, 250,000 b/d and 230,000 b/d to3.01m b/d, 3.07m b/d, 3.23m b/d and3.24m b/d, respectively, compared withthe last report’s figures. The forecast for2002 has also been revised up, to 3.26mb/d. These revisions have been based onrecent data released by some OPECMember Countries.

OPEC NGL production — 1998–2002m b/d

1998 3.011999 3.072000 3.231Q01 3.242Q01 3.243Q01 3.244Q01 3.242001 3.24Change 2001/2000 0.022002 3.26Change 2002/2001 0.02

either up or down, remaining on balanceat around the previous month’s levels.Total oil stocks were 6.8m b below lastyear’s level (see Table G).

JapanIn November, commercial oil stocks

experienced a considerable seasonal drawof 13.9m b, or 460,000 b/d, to 197.8mb, after three months of continued build.Crude oil was the main contributor, fall-ing by 11.8m b to 117.5m b, on anincrease of 430,000 b/d in refinerythroughput. Distillates also decreased, by2.1m b to 46.2m b, on improved demanddue to the cold weather. Gasoline was theexception, moving up by 500,000 b to14.1m b on sluggish demand. The overalllevel was 6.0m b above the year-earlierlevel (see Table H).

Balance of supply/demand

For 2001, both world oil demand andnon-OPEC oil supply have been revisedup since the last report, by 100,000 b/dand 200,000 b/d to 75.9m b/d and 49.7mb/d, respectively. These revisions have re-sulted in a yearly average difference of26.1m b/d, down by 100,000 b/d fromDecember’s issue. The quarterly distribu-tions are 27.1m b/d, 25.4m b/d, 25.8mb/d and 26.2m b/d, respectively. Thebalance for 1Q has been revised down by100,000 b/d to 1.0m b/d, while, for 2Q,it has been revised up by 400,000 b/d to1.7m b/d; 3Q remains unchanged at 1.4mb/d, and 4Q appears for the first time, at200,000 b/d. The 2000 balance has beenrevised up by 100,000 b/d to 1.1m b/d.

There are no changes to world oildemand and total non-OPEC supply for2002. They are forecast at 76.2m b/d and50.6m b/d, respectively, resulting in anexpected annual difference of around25.6m b/d, which remains unchanged,compared with the last report. The quar-terly distribution is 26.4m b/d, 24.7mb/d, 25.2m b/d and 26.3m b/d, respec-tively (see Table I).

OPEC crude oil productionAvailable secondary sources indicate

that, in December, OPEC output was25.72m b/d, which was 740,000 b/d lowerthan the revised November level of 26.46mb/d. Table E shows OPEC production, asreported by selected secondary sources.

Stock movements

USAUS commercial onland oil stocks dis-

played a moderate seasonal draw of 20.0mb, or 710,000 b/d, to 1,009.2m b duringNovember 30–December 28. The drawwas largely confined to one of 14.8m b to181.5m b on ‘other oils’ and 4.2m b to207.9m b on gasoline, due to healthydemand.

Crude oil also witnessed a slight draw,of 1.6m b to 309.9m b, on reduced im-ports, as well as a marginal increase inrefinery runs, as refiners’ margins displayedsome improvement, benefiting from thehigher gasoline demand. Other majorproduct inventories remained almost atthe previous period’s levels. Total oil stockswere 78.3m b, or about eight per cent,higher than the level observed a year ago.

During the same period, the US Stra-tegic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increasedslightly further by 1.7m b to 549.0m b (seeTable F).

Western EuropeCommercial onland oil stocks in Eur-

16 in December compensated for theprevious month’s draw, when they expe-rienced a contra-seasonal build of 15.7mb, or 510,000 b/d, to 1,064.1m b. Mostof the build occurred in crude oil stocks,which rose by 9.1m b to 436.5m b, thehighest end-December level in three years.This build was attributed mainly to re-duced refinery runs, on poor refiners’margins and, to a lesser degree, the closedAtlantic arbitrage.

Gasoline also contributed to this build,when it increased by 5.9m b to 152.4mb. Other major products moved slightly

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Table F: US onland commercial petroleum stocks1 m b

ChangeJune 29, 01 Oct 5, 01 Nov 30, 01 Dec 28, 01 Dec/Nov Dec 28, 00

Crude oil (excl. SPR) 310.7 307.4 311.5 309.9 –1.6 285.6Gasoline 221.6 206.1 212.1 207.9 –4.2 196.2Distillate fuel 112.8 124.6 138.0 137.6 –0.4 118.3Residual fuel oil 42.5 36.7 40.0 40.9 0.9 36.6Jet fuel 43.0 44.0 40.6 40.7 0.1 44.2Unfinished oils 90.4 88.9 90.6 90.6 0.0 87.2Other oils 191.4 219.7 196.3 181.5 –14.8 162.8Total 1,012.4 1,027.4 1,029.2 1,009.2 –20.0 930.9SPR 543.3 544.8 547.3 549.0 1.7 541.6

1. At end of month, unless otherwise stated. Source: US/DoE-EIA.

Table G: Western Europe onland commercial petroleum stocks1 m b

ChangeJune 01 September 01 November 01 December 01 Dec/Nov December 00

Crude oil 438.5 436.6 427.4 436.5 9.1 422.6Mogas 155.6 144.6 146.5 152.4 5.9 154.2Naphtha 25.1 26.0 26.8 26.4 –0.4 24.7Middle distillates 331.4 323.4 329.4 329.7 0.3 342.9Fuel oils 122.2 121.0 118.3 119.1 0.8 126.5Total products 634.3 615.0 621.0 627.6 6.6 648.3Overall total 1,072.8 1,051.6 1,048.4 1,064.1 15.7 1,070.9

1. At end of month, and includes Eur-16. Source: Argus Euroilstocks.

Table H: Japan’s commercial oil stocks1 m b

ChangeJune 01 September 01 October 01 November 01 Nov/Oct November 00

Crude oil 127.3 118.0 129.3 117.5 –11.8 110.8Gasoline 14.3 13.8 13.6 14.1 0.5 14.2Middle distillates 33.6 45.7 48.3 46.2 –2.1 46.9Residual fuel oil 19.8 19.9 20.5 19.9 –0.6 19.9Total products 67.7 79.5 82.4 80.3 –2.1 81.0Overall total2 195.1 197.5 211.7 197.8 –13.9 191.8

1. At end of month. Source: MITI, Japan.2. Includes crude oil and main products only.

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Table I: World crude oil demand/supply balance m b/d

1998 1999 2000 1Q01 2Q01 3Q01 4Q01 2001 1Q02 2Q02 3Q02 4Q02 2002

World demandOECD 46.8 47.7 47.8 48.8 46.5 47.5 47.8 47.7 48.7 46.4 47.3 48.5 47.7

North America 23.1 23.8 24.1 24.2 23.7 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.1Western Europe 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.2 14.8 15.4 15.1 15.1 15.2 14.6 15.3 15.3 15.1Pacific 8.4 8.7 8.7 9.4 8.0 8.1 8.7 8.6 9.4 7.9 8.0 8.9 8.6

Developing countries 18.2 18.6 18.8 18.7 18.8 19.1 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.2 18.8 18.9FSU 4.3 4.0 3.8 4.0 3.8 3.7 4.3 3.9 3.9 3.7 4.1 4.2 4.0Other Europe 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8China 3.8 4.2 4.7 4.4 4.9 4.7 5.1 4.8 4.5 5.0 4.6 5.1 4.8(a) Total world demand 73.8 75.2 75.8 76.6 74.7 75.7 76.5 75.9 76.7 74.8 76.0 77.5 76.2

Non-OPEC supplyOECD 21.8 21.3 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.8 22.2 21.9 21.9 21.7 21.9 22.2 21.9

North America 14.5 14.1 14.3 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.5Western Europe 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.5 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.5 6.6 6.8 6.7Pacific 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8

Developing countries 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.0 10.8 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.0 11.2 11.2 11.2FSU 7.3 7.5 7.9 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.7 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.2 9.0Other Europe 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2China 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3Processing gains 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7Total non-OPEC supply 44.5 44.6 45.8 46.2 46.0 46.6 47.1 46.5 47.1 46.9 47.5 47.9 47.4OPEC NGLs 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3(b) Total non-OPEC supply and

OPEC NGLs 47.5 47.6 49.0 49.5 49.3 49.9 50.3 49.7 50.4 50.1 50.8 51.2 50.6

OPEC crude oil production1 27.8 26.5 27.9 28.1 27.1 27.2 26.3 27.2Total supply 75.2 74.1 76.9 77.6 76.3 77.1 76.6 76.9Balance2 1.5 -1.1 1.1 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.2 1.0

Closing stock level (outside FCPEs) m bOECD onland commercial 2698 2446 2527 2523 2595 2648OECD SPR 1249 1228 1210 1210 1207 1203OECD total 3947 3675 3737 3733 3803 3851Other onland 1056 983 999 998 1017 1030Oil on water 859 807 876 913 834 864Total stock 5861 5465 5612 5645 5653 5744

Days of forward consumption in OECDCommercial onland stocks 57 51 53 54 55 55SPR 26 26 25 26 25 25Total 83 77 78 80 80 81Memo itemsFSU net exports 3.0 3.4 4.1 4.3 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.0[(a) — (b)] 26.3 27.6 26.8 27.1 25.4 25.8 26.2 26.1 26.4 24.7 25.2 26.3 25.6

Note: Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.1. Secondary sources.2. Stock change and miscellaneous.

Table I above, prepared by the Secretariat’s Energy Studies Department, shows OPEC’s current forecast of world supply and demand foroil and natural gas liquids.

The monthly evolution of spot prices for selected OPEC and non-OPEC crudes is presented in Tables One and Two on page 26, whileGraphs One and Two (on pages 25 and 27) show the evolution on a weekly basis. Tables Three to Eight, and the corresponding graphson pages 28–33, show the evolution of monthly average spot prices for important products in six major markets. (Data for Tables 1–8 isprovided by courtesy of Platt’s Energy Services).

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Graph 1:Evolution of spot prices for selected OPEC crudes,

September to December 2001

10

15

20

25

30

35

OPEC Basket

Tia Juana Light

Dubai

Arab Heavy

Arab Light

Bonny Light

BregaKuwait Export

Iran Light

Minas

Saharan Blend

DecemberNovemberOctoberSeptember11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44

$/barrel

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1. Tia Juana Light spot price = (TJL netback/Isthmus netback) x Isthmus spot price.2. OPEC Basket: an average of Saharan Blend, Minas, Bonny Light, Arabian Light, Dubai, Tia Juana Light and Isthmus.Kirkuk ex Ceyhan; Brent for dated cargoes; Urals cif Mediterranean. All others fob loading port.Sources: The netback values for TJL price calculations are taken from RVM; Platt’s Oilgram Price Report; Reuters; Secretariat’s calculations.

Table 1: OPEC spot crude oil prices, 2000–2001 ($/b)

2000 2001Member Country/ Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Decembertype of crude (API°) 4Wav 5Wav 4Wav 4Wav 4Wav 5Wav 4Wav 5Wav 4Wav 4Wav 5Wav 4Wav 1W 2W 3W 4W 4Wav

AlgeriaSaharan Blend (44.1) 26.11 26.08 27.80 24.82 25.65 28.47 28.16 24.82 25.96 26.13 20.65 19.00 19.51 18.41 19.22 19.18 19.08

IndonesiaMinas (33.9) 24.87 24.03 25.62 25.64 27.64 28.21 27.86 25.32 24.82 24.59 19.53 18.29 18.29 16.96 17.33 17.99 17.64

IR IranLight (33.9) 22.66 22.63 24.65 23.58 24.05 25.58 25.80 23.78 24.68 24.54 20.04 17.64 17.92 16.86 17.71 18.28 17.69

IraqKirkuk (36.1) — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — —

KuwaitExport (31.4) 21.11 21.08 23.10 22.03 22.50 24.03 24.25 22.47 23.13 22.99 18.49 16.09 16.37 15.31 16.16 16.73 16.14

SP Libyan AJBrega (40.4) 25.40 25.93 27.79 24.69 25.54 28.85 28.18 24.96 25.73 25.91 20.62 19.00 19.20 18.00 18.60 19.45 18.81

NigeriaBonny Light (36.7) 25.47 25.43 27.40 24.35 25.43 28.51 28.06 24.81 25.41 25.98 20.60 18.92 19.38 18.02 18.86 18.88 18.78

Saudi ArabiaLight (34.2) 22.65 22.31 24.82 23.77 24.24 25.77 26.17 24.03 24.92 24.73 20.16 17.82 18.22 17.17 17.99 18.57 17.99Heavy (28.0) 20.83 20.74 23.32 22.57 23.15 24.60 24.88 22.61 23.77 23.63 19.36 17.00 17.37 16.42 17.24 17.82 17.21

UAEDubai (32.5) 22.27 22.56 24.79 23.67 24.06 25.40 25.86 23.45 24.70 24.37 19.93 17.62 17.73 16.74 17.67 18.27 17.60

VenezuelaTia Juana Light1 (32.4) 23.11 23.18 22.79 21.08 20.79 22.77 22.30 20.55 21.54 20.72 17.66 15.28 14.97 14.14 14.80 15.64 14.89

OPEC Basket2 24.13 24.06 25.41 23.70 24.38 26.25 26.10 23.73 24.46 24.2924.2924.2924.2924.29 19.64 17.65 17.85 16.76 17.50 18.01 17.53

Table 2: Selected non-OPEC spot crude oil prices, 2000–2001 ($/b)

2000 2001Country/ Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Decembertype of crude (API°) 4Wav 5Wav 4Wav 4Wav 4Wav 5Wav 4Wav 5Wav 4Wav 4Wav 5Wav 4Wav 1W 2W 3W 4W 4Wav

Gulf AreaOman Blend (34.0) 22.76 22.43 24.29 23.26 23.82 25.55 25.53 23.61 24.44 24.49 19.93 17.67 18.21 17.07 17.84 18.38 17.87

MediterraneanSuez Mix (Egypt, 33.0) 21.11 22.09 22.61 19.73 21.58 24.56 23.83 21.37 22.48 23.11 17.75 16.09 16.75 15.95 16.60 17.40 16.68

North SeaBrent (UK, 38.0) 25.07 25.60 27.30 24.42 25.37 28.35 27.96 24.66 25.78 25.84 20.54 18.80 19.12 17.87 18.62 18.73 18.58Ekofisk (Norway, 43.0) 25.50 25.51 27.49 24.34 25.38 28.45 27.59 24.55 25.70 25.73 20.35 18.70 19.14 17.73 18.56 18.63 18.51

Latin AmericaIsthmus (Mexico, 32.8) 24.40 24.80 24.63 22.60 22.86 24.62 24.25 22.67 23.86 23.49 18.94 16.61 16.82 15.89 16.64 17.58 16.73

North AmericaWTI (US, 40.0) 28.39 29.42 29.48 27.27 27.37 28.60 27.67 26.53 27.41 26.40 22.20 19.49 19.77 18.40 19.20 20.25 19.40

Others

Urals (Russia, 36.1) 24.06 24.40 24.78 21.72 23.60 26.46 25.60 23.08 24.46 25.05 19.80 17.83 18.70 17.63 18.56 18.60 18.37

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Graph 2:Evolution of spot prices for selected non-OPEC crudes,

September to December 2001

10

15

20

25

30

35

OPEC Basket

Urals

West Texas

Isthmus

Ekofisk

Brent

Suex Mix

Oman

DecemberNovemberOctoberSeptember11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44

$/barrel$/barrel

55

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Table 3: North European market — bulk barges, fob Rotterdam ($/b)regular gas premium gas fuel oil

1999 naphtha unleaded 87 unleaded 95 gasoil jet kero 1%S 3.5%SDecember 24.73 28.41 28.93 28.18 33.07 19.69 18.672000January 27.41 27.81 28.23 28.96 32.24 19.85 18.83February 29.87 31.63 32.32 29.85 32.72 21.52 19.81March 31.06 35.71 36.27 30.28 34.01 22.67 22.12April 24.83 32.90 33.42 28.23 32.81 19.44 18.12May 28.39 37.01 38.99 29.87 32.07 20.02 18.70June 30.41 40.57 44.28 31.40 34.40 23.79 21.23July 29.89 36.51 37.67 33.02 36.07 24.13 19.79August 29.79 34.82 36.20 36.46 38.69 21.47 19.69September 33.28 36.87 37.70 42.09 43.84 24.29 23.04October 33.15 34.72 35.28 40.06 43.64 27.06 23.82November 32.51 32.72 33.46 40.68 43.61 25.61 22.18December 29.27 27.77 28.05 34.25 37.50 23.24 18.312001January 27.36 29.44 29.85 30.15 32.03 20.54 15.48February 29.23 32.11 32.49 30.88 33.41 20.48 18.21March 27.19 30.69 31.52 29.38 31.72 20.56 17.58April 27.86 36.47 37.57 30.37 32.45 20.49 17.05May 29.71 37.93 39.09 31.18 34.17 20.48 18.21June 27.21 30.27 31.73 31.06 33.69 19.23 17.97July 22.28 27.06 27.82 29.33 31.55 17.97 17.19August 22.51 27.93 29.36 30.18 31.58 18.18 18.40September 23.19 28.49 29.88 30.87 32.18 19.84 19.23October 19.72 23.35 23.27 27.41 28.53 16.50 16.07November 16.88 19.27 20.20 23.03 24.38 15.49 14.68December 17.48 18.41 19.16 21.35 23.11 14.98 14.95

Sources: Until September 2000 Platt’s Oilgram Price Report & Platt’s Global Alert; as of October 2000 Reuters. Prices are average of available days.

Graph 3: North European market — bulk barges, fob Rotterdam

2000 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

fuel oil 3.5%S

fuel oil 1%S

jet kero

gasoil

premium

regular

naphtha

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan

$/barrel

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Table 4: South European market — bulk cargoes, fob Italy ($/b)gasoline fuel oil

1999 naphtha premium unleaded 95 gasoil jet kero 1%S 3.5%SDecember 23.83 28.82 27.86 32.52 18.23 17.442000January 26.26 27.55 28.06 31.43 20.48 17.85February 28.57 32.11 29.97 31.28 22.12 19.05March 29.65 36.27 29.63 32.31 22.40 21.27April 23.41 32.77 26.69 31.16 19.28 17.09May 27.01 38.38 29.15 29.67 20.52 16.51June 28.93 44.06 30.14 31.99 24.50 19.95July 28.26 38.25 32.92 34.18 23.20 18.76August 28.14 36.67 36.09 36.60 20.85 17.85September 31.58 37.87 41.97 41.89 25.00 21.49October 32.48 37.20 41.53 41.85 27.16 23.58November 32.47 33.57 40.44 40.33 24.71 19.47December 27.74 27.79 34.92 35.99 23.46 17.962001January 26.35 28.76 27.32 28.73 20.13 14.35February 26.04 31.89 31.32 29.11 18.80 16.86March 24.13 30.53 27.55 27.89 18.39 16.28April 27.07 36.43 29.00 28.28 19.23 14.96May 29.54 39.45 29.37 29.72 19.39 15.84June 27.15 32.21 30.98 29.40 17.71 15.89July 21.95 25.55 27.77 27.15 17.73 15.59August 22.26 26.60 27.58 27.74 18.20 16.93September 23.46 29.93 27.58 29.36 18.99 17.44October 19.14 23.55 27.58 23.61 15.61 15.07November 16.22 19.41 27.58 20.54 13.61 12.48December 16.91 19.11 27.58 19.16 15.15 13.15

Sources: Until September 2000 Platt’s Oilgram Price Report & Platt’s Global Alert; as of October 2000 Reuters. Prices are average of available days.

Graph 4: South European market — bulk cargoes, fob Italy

0

10

20

30

40

50

fuel oil 3.5%S

fuel oil 1%S

jet kero

gasoil

premium

naphtha

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan

$/barrel

2000 2001

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Table 5: US East Coast market — New York ($/b, duties and fees included)gasoline fuel oil

1999 regular unleaded 87 gasoil jet kero 0.3%S LP 1%S 2.2%SDecember 29.35 27.91 30.92 24.88 19.21 18.702000January 29.41 34.21 39.42 30.08 21.76 20.42February 33.91 34.64 35.50 31.74 22.90 21.22March 37.10 32.01 34.31 27.07 21.06 20.87April 30.35 30.16 32.20 26.81 20.98 19.85May 37.17 31.39 33.26 28.66 24.59 21.86June 40.12 32.62 33.69 30.69 27.11 23.20July 36.04 32.53 34.42 29.28 24.44 22.20August 36.33 37.17 38.59 29.48 24.50 21.57September 39.90 41.25 43.80 37.21 29.42 25.39October 39.83 41.04 42.86 36.86 29.51 25.96November 39.56 43.46 45.52 35.43 28.66 25.26December 30.96 39.52 40.97 34.59 25.63 22.042001January 34.81 35.51 36.03 33.09 25.40 22.34February 34.68 32.99 34.90 31.51 23.38 19.73March 32.96 31.12 32.91 27.61 23.31 20.30April 39.78 32.83 33.92 27.82 22.80 17.47May 39.06 32.48 35.60 27.84 23.09 18.58June 30.07 31.74 32.92 24.89 20.22 17.64July 28.69 29.31 30.10 23.71 19.33 16.72August 32.56 30.80 32.88 23.69 20.14 18.23September 31.61 30.71 31.77 24.02 20.24 19.80October 25.15 26.40 26.84 20.70 17.91 16.97November 21.68 22.97 23.63 20.28 15.98 14.97December 21.73 21.90 22.52 20.01 16.52 15.28

Sources: Until September 2000 Platt’s Oilgram Price Report & Platt’s Global Alert; as of October 2000 Reuters. Prices are average of available days.

Graph 5: US East Coast market — New York

0

10

20

30

40

50

fuel oil 2.2%S

fuel oil 1%S

fuel oil 0.3%S LP

jet kero

gasoil

regular

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan20002000 20012001

$/barrel

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Table 6: Caribbean cargoes — fob ($/b)fuel oil

1999 naphtha gasoil jet kero 2%S 2.8%SDecember 25.96 27.38 29.93 18.20 17.872000January 28.17 30.61 32.85 19.82 18.46February 33.52 31.85 32.95 20.57 19.36March 32.74 30.82 33.01 20.17 19.70April 28.25 29.44 30.74 19.15 18.50May 32.59 31.11 31.84 21.16 19.39June 36.24 32.27 32.78 22.27 21.40July 31.06 32.35 33.38 20.84 19.67August 32.92 36.63 37.80 19.78 18.54September 35.32 41.01 42.78 23.59 20.46October 34.77 39.90 41.32 23.95 21.71November 34.37 40.93 43.64 22.96 17.96December 29.73 34.63 36.40 19.89 16.902001January 34.10 35.56 36.17 20.21 16.48February 29.87 31.85 32.42 18.14 16.31March 28.63 28.97 30.11 18.26 17.16April 33.60 30.51 31.37 15.81 15.03May 29.65 32.07 34.46 17.50 17.10June 25.85 31.58 32.13 16.64 16.27July 25.06 28.84 29.57 15.54 14.45August 29.04 30.49 31.68 17.20 17.11September 26.30 30.10 30.28 18.70 18.71October 19.86 25.47 25.83 16.28 16.23November 18.74 22.07 22.44 14.26 14.11December 19.32 21.10 21.26 14.35 13.88

Sources: Until September 2000 Platt’s Oilgram Price Report & Platt’s Global Alert; as of October 2000 Reuters. Prices are average of available days.

Graph 6: Caribbean cargoes — fob

20002000 20012001

$/barrel$/barrel

0

10

20

30

40

50

fuel oil 2.8%S

fuel oil 2.0%S

jet kero

gasoil

naphtha

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan

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Table 7: Singapore cargoes ($/b)gasoline fuel oil

1999 naphtha premium unleaded 95 gasoil jet kero 0.3%S 180C 380CDecember 25.03 25.46 25.63 29.53 21.47 20.47 20.982000January 25.02 28.36 28.14 31.30 21.58 19.66 19.95February 27.09 31.16 29.90 31.14 23.43 20.76 21.15March 29.08 32.58 32.94 32.37 25.85 24.66 24.69April 25.01 28.01 26.73 27.99 24.54 22.13 22.39May 27.27 31.90 28.12 29.09 26.62 23.62 23.60June 28.13 33.08 30.69 31.23 26.78 25.30 25.31July 27.80 36.05 31.86 33.25 25.45 22.00 22.09August 30.19 38.31 37.46 37.98 27.08 21.57 21.64September 34.53 35.05 40.13 42.21 28.44 24.81 24.87October 33.50 33.03 38.96 43.30 26.77 26.35 26.55November 30.43 32.96 34.85 39.88 26.50 24.36 24.49December 25.52 29.97 29.61 32.92 24.45 19.78 19.742001January 25.50 30.02 28.41 29.70 22.54 18.37 17.99February 27.83 31.33 27.57 30.48 22.68 19.91 19.69March 27.43 29.88 26.83 28.72 22.43 20.08 20.04April 28.14 32.76 29.80 30.25 22.60 20.48 20.47May 28.89 32.64 30.79 30.74 23.72 22.02 22.07June 27.57 26.89 30.00 30.84 25.11 20.26 20.16July 24.38 24.36 28.54 28.93 24.08 19.03 19.19August 24.33 26.68 28.71 29.37 21.03 20.70 20.94September 24.67 29.47 29.44 31.05 20.38 21.74 21.85October 20.58 22.23 25.53 25.92 19.10 18.53 18.72November 18.15 20.75 21.87 22.40 15.84 15.47 15.46December 18.36 22.61 20.11 21.77 15.78 16.15 16.44

Sources: Until September 2000 Platt’s Oilgram Price Report & Platt’s Global Alert; as of October 2000 Reuters. Prices are average of available days.

Graph 7: Singapore cargoes

0

10

20

30

40

50

fuel oil 380C

fuel oil 180C

fuel oil 0.3%S

jet kero

gasoil

premium

naphtha

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan20002000 20012001

$/barrel$/barrel

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Table 8: Middle East— fob ($/b)fuel oil

1999 naphtha gasoil jet kero 180CDecember 24.85 24.34 28.30 19.412000January 24.62 26.63 29.87 18.47February 26.75 28.32 29.64 19.59March 28.42 31.28 30.79 23.40April 24.42 25.01 26.36 20.66May 26.84 26.39 27.46 22.06June 27.63 28.76 29.40 23.60July 27.07 29.73 31.24 20.27August 29.12 35.24 35.88 19.49September 33.03 37.79 40.01 22.98October 31.51 36.62 40.97 24.39November 28.88 32.42 37.38 22.05December 24.19 26.46 29.73 17.062001January 24.29 25.05 26.38 15.68February 26.86 24.40 27.31 17.58March 26.28 24.31 26.41 17.93April 27.42 28.05 28.49 18.83May 28.57 29.11 29.02 20.74June 26.95 28.08 28.93 18.92July 23.53 26.77 27.16 17.65August 23.49 27.15 27.78 19.28September 24.07 28.00 29.64 20.57October 20.47 24.05 24.42 17.51November 18.24 20.91 21.44 14.55December 17.61 19.33 20.48 14.61

Sources: Until September 2000 Platt’s Oilgram Price Report & Platt’s Global Alert; as of October 2000 Reuters. Prices are average of available days.

Graph 8: Middle East — fob

0

10

20

30

40

50

fuel oil 180C

jet kero

gasoil

naphtha

DecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJan2000 2001

$/barrel

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34 OPEC Bulletin

M E M B E R C O U N T R Y F O C U SM E M B E R C O U N T R Y F O C U S

opecna news desk ... from the opecna news desk ... from the opecna

Foreign direct investment inIndonesia falls by 51 per cent

Jakarta — Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia fellby a hefty 51 per cent in the first 10 months of 2001 to $6.47billion, down from $13.14bn in January-October 2000, theJakarta Post reported last month.

Quoting experts, it said that without a considerable amountof FDI, the Indonesian economic recovery process would not besustainable, and would risk keeping millions of people therejobless for an even longer period.

The paper expressed concern that the flow of investmentmight continue to dry up in 2002, or even the following year,amidst the global economic downturn and the growing attrac-tion of China, India, Thailand and Vietnam as new investmentdestinations.

According to the paper, the value of inward investment hadbeen on the decline for the past four years, dropping from $33bnin 1997 to $13bn in 1998 and to $10.9bn in 1999. However,it improved to $15.4bn in 2000.

Indonesia would have to secure around $20bn of FDI a yearto pull out of the current economic crisis, said Economist at theCentre for Strategic and International Studies in Jakarta, DjismanSimanjuntak.

“Indonesia desperately needs to seek foreign investment torehabilitate and expand the country’s infrastructure,” said thereport, quoting the Chairman of the American Chamber ofCommerce in the Indonesian capital, James Castle.

Meanwhile, a new investment bill, which would ensureequal treatment for local and foreign investors, was beingprepared and would soon be tabled in the Indonesian Houseof Representatives for approval, the Chief of the Investment Co-ordinating Board, Theo Toemion disclosed.

The bill was designed to attract foreign investment andremove conditions which stipulate that projects owned by overseasinvestors should be diversified, allowing an Indonesian stakeafter some years of operation, he added.

Venezuela sees active role oninternational stage in 2002

Caracas — Venezuela’s diplomatic agenda for next year willbe intense as a result of the country’s leadership role in majorinternational organizations, such as the Group of 15, the Groupof 77, and OPEC, according to Foreign Minister, Luis AlfonsoDavila.

“An extraordinarily intensive job awaits us next year by virtueof the leadership Venezuela holds in OPEC, the G-15 and theG-77,” Davila told reporters in the Venezuelan capital.

The Minister said those three international organizations

had placed Venezuela in the extraordinarily important role ofactive foreign policy. He noted that in January 2002, Venezuelawas scheduled to take over the presidency of the G-77.

Davila noted that Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez, andhis Iranian counterpart, Mohammad Khatami, might co-ordi-nate the formal handing over of the G-77 presidency during ameeting that may be held either in Iran or at the United Nationsheadquarters in New York in early January.

He added that on January 28, the Foreign Ministers, alongwith Production, Trade and Finance Ministers of the AndeanCommunity of Nations (CAN), were scheduled to meet inBolivia to set guidelines for the establishment of a free trade zoneinvolving all CAN members and Mercosur.

The Minister also underlined that Venezuela would be incharge of putting together all opinions and positions of G-15and G-77 member countries, since it would serve as the spokes-man for both groups in talks with the Group of Eight indus-trialized states.

He announced that the G-15 and G-77 groups were sched-uled to hold a meeting in October 2002 in Johannesburg, whileVenezuela would host a G-15 summit in July 2002.

“There will also be intense work next year involving theWorld Trade Organization (WTO), in which the G-77 and theG-15 will put forth common positions at the new round ofnegotiations in that organization,” he added.

Davila also noted that Russian President, Vladimir Putin,was preparing an official visit to Venezuela sometime in 2002.

Iran, Saudi Arabia recordimproved trade in 2000

Riyadh — A report by the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Com-merce said last month that trade between Iran and the Kingdomhad increased by 40 per cent in 2000, compared with thepreceding year.

The report, released during the visit of Iranian CommerceMinister, Mohammad Shariatmadari, to the Kingdom, saidbilateral trade, which exceeded a value of $132 million in 2000,was less than $100m the year before.

It also said that the two sides had invested in joint projectswith a total investment of $1bn, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA)reported.

The Ministry, according to the report, said the cumbersomenature of the Iranian banking system remained a major obstaclein boosting trade ties between the two countries.

This, it said, was responsible for Iranian traders favoringbarter deals in their commercial transactions with their Saudicounterparts. The report expressed hope that financial andbanking reforms would assist in alleviating such problems.

It noted that Shariatmadari and his Saudi counterpart,Usama Ibn Jafaar Ibn Ibrahim Faqih, had worked out a blue-

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print of areas of economic co-operation for the upcomingTehran-Riyadh joint economic commission session.

The two sides were looking to finalize agreements on cus-toms tariffs, the environment, and establishing industrial stand-ards.

Algeria and Italy examine newunderwater power connection

Algiers —Algeria’s state electricity and gas company, Sonelgaz,and the Italian power firm GRTN, were due to sign an accordlast month for a feasibility study on providing an underwaterpower cable between the two countries.

According to a Sonelgaz statement, the study would becarried out in two stages, the first of which would be devotedto the technical and economic feasibility of the project.

The second stage would consist of listing the different phasesrelated to providing the connection, said the statement from theAlgerian company.

With a minimum capacity of 1,000 megawatts, the schemewould permit free access to the power networks of both coun-tries, and also enable the export of electricity produced in Algeriato Italy.

Nigerian government set toprivatize power firm, ports

Abuja — Nigeria’s Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE), thecountry’s privatization body, has set up a team to handle theupcoming sales of the National Electric Power Authority (NEPA)and the Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA).

The BPE’s Director General, Nasir El-Rufai, told reportersin Abuja that the move was in compliance with a directive fromPresident Olusegun Obasanjo.

The 15-man team would work with advisers, the Ministryof Power and Steel, and the NEPA management on variousaspects of the Authority’s “corporate restructuring, unbundlingand the eventual sale of some of its business units to core groupinvestors,” said El-Rufai.

He noted that the team had already started the review of acomprehensive project work plan that would determine, amongother things, the number of advisers and the composition of theadvisory consortia required for the assignment, as well as theirschedule of duty and sub-tasks.

Meanwhile, the team has held preliminary meetings anddiscussions with other stakeholders in Nigeria’s power sector andhas drawn up a tentative time-table for the privatization ofNEPA.

El-Rufai said the determination of a comprehensive projectwork plan had been scheduled for January 2002, while the repealof the existing laws covering the sector and their replacementwith the Electric Power Sector Reform Act would be carried outin the first quarter of 2002.

The establishment of the Nigerian Electricity RegulatoryCommission would take place in mid-2002, he added, as wouldthe presentation of the implementation plan of action byPriceWaterhouseCoopers, to determine the number of compa-nies to be created from NEPA and those to be privatized.

He said the actual sale of some of its business units wouldbe conducted between December 2002 and the first quarter of2003.

Regarding the privatization of the NPA, El-Rufai noted thatthere was an ongoing study being conducted by the World Bankon the modernization of the country’s ports.

The NPA would be sold through a concession option, as thishad proved to be a viable method, he said, adding that the outlineof the privatization plan would be determined by an act of theNational Assembly.

Indonesian team to draft bill ongeothermal energy development

Jakarta — The Indonesian House of Representatives hasformed a team to draft a bill on geothermal energy development,covering more than 244 fields with the potential to produce20,000 megawatts of electricity.

The House had taken an initiative to propose the bill to thegovernment because it deemed geothermal as a sustainablealternative energy source, said the Head of the House Commis-sion on energy, mineral resources, environment, science andtechnology, Irwan Prayitno.

The government said it would withdraw from the geothermalbusiness, leaving it to private sector investors. It had alreadytransferred the supervisory rights on geothermal resources to theregions from the state oil and gas enterprise, Pertamina, in May2000.

Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, DrPurnomo Yusgiantoro, has also called for a new law to boostthe development of geothermal energy.

Most of the 22 geothermal power projects approved beforethe 1997 Asian economic crisis had been shelved or delayed,according to a report in the Jakarta Post newspaper last month.

The current combined geothermal power generating capac-ity averaged 747.5 mw, according to the Indonesian GeothermalAssociation.

Construction of new Iranianpetrochemical unit starts soon

Tehran — The National Iranian Petrochemical Company hasawarded the construction contract for a light polyethylene unitto the German firm Lurgi and the Iranian company Sazeh, itwas announced last month.

According to a report in the Tehran Times newspaper, thecompanies won the joint contract in a bidding round thatincluded a highly competitive international field.

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The project included both basic and detailed engineering,furnishing equipment, as well as construction and providingtechnical services.

The unit will be established as part of the Marun Petro-chemical Company (olefin 7) complex, in the petrochemicalspecial economic zone.

The complex will provide the polyethylene for the 300,000tonnes/year unit, which will be the largest of its kind outsideEurope. It has been estimated that the project will take 29months to complete.

Algerian parliament passes lawopening up electricity sector

Algiers — The Algerian parliament last month passed a newlaw, opening up the country’s electricity sector to private localand foreign investment.

Under the terms of the legislation, the power sector will beopened up in stages, while the national electricity and gas firm,Sonelgaz, will become a joint stock company.

This will result in the opening up of the capital of Sonelgazsubsidiaries to private participation, although the parent com-pany will remain state property.

However, Sonelgaz will loose some of its prerogatives to anew regulatory authority, to be set up soon, which will be incharge of the control of the electricity market and the regulationof competition.

With the passing of the new law and the adoption earlierlast year of a new bill on mines, Algeria’s parliament is to examineshortly a new law governing the hydrocarbons sector.

This will mark the final reforms in the country’s energy andmines sector, which were initiated two years ago by the Energyand Mines Minister, Dr Chakib Khelil.

Indonesian products may beexempt in free trade area

Jakarta — With exports sliding, Indonesia is expected to have27 commodities excused from the Association of South-EastAsian Nations (ASEAN) free trade area (AFTA) tax structure,which takes effect from 2002.

While the government has acknowledged that its exportshave weakened to a value of $42bn-45bn in 2001, comparedwith $47bn in 2000, the Indonesian Chamber of Commerceand Industry said products from 27 industries were not readyto compete under the AFTA regime.

Coffee, steel, pipes, sugar, rice, industrial machinery, elec-trical appliances, aluminum foil, cables, oil and gas products,paints and varnish products would not be able to compete inthe free trade market environment, maintained the Chamber,which recently surveyed 80 business associations in the country.

Under the move, import tariffs in ASEAN’s six foundermembers would be cut to between five and zero per cent.

Indonesia, together with Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand,Brunei, and the Philippines are the founding members of theAssociation. Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar and Vietnam, whichjoined later, were being allowed to delay opening up theirmarkets under the AFTA structure until between 2006 and2010.

The main cause of the poor competitiveness of local productswas their high dependence on imported raw materials, saidChamber official, Soy Pardede.

He said the government’s aggressive tax policy, which im-posed a higher level of value added tax and luxury tax on locallymade products, was also not helping industries.

A weak legal environment, the poor implementation of theregional autonomy policy, and an uncertain business climate,were other internal factors hurting industries, said the Chamber,which has been organizing a series of meetings and conferenceson Indonesia’s participation in AFTA.

Saudi Arabia rules outborrowing to meet deficit

Jeddah — Saudi Arabia will not resort to foreign borrowingto meet the $12 billion deficit projected in its 2002 budget, inwhich revenues are forecast at $41.9bn and expenditure at$53.9bn.

The Kingdom’s Finance and National Economy Minister,Dr Ibrahim Al-Assaf, has ruled out any foreign borrowing,saying local financial institutions and national reserves werecapable of meeting the deficit.

There was sufficient capacity to cover the budget deficit,either through issuing bonds, or through internal borrowing,he was quoted by the Arab News as saying last month.

“Saudi financial establishments and national reserves arecapable of meeting the shortfall. The position of our banks isexcellent,” Al-Assaf pointed out.

The projected deficit for 2002 is the largest since 1998 whenthe average price for oil was just over $12/barrel and theKingdom’s output stood at 8.3 million barrels/day.

The sharp drop in revenues from a projected $57.3bn for2001 follows a major decline in oil prices after the September11 attacks on the United States, coupled with new cuts in OPECproduction.

The Minister said the new budget had been prepared “underextreme conditions, marred by difficulties and challenges, as aresult of the direct decline in oil prices,” which led to lowerrevenue and expenditure projections than in 2000.

He estimated internal debt at the end of 2001 at in excessof $168bn, just under the country’s gross domestic product of$178bn.

The debt, obtained from local Saudi banks and financialinstitutions, was tipped to rise next year as the deficit increased.

“Looking at the current budget, we note that it was in goodshape during the first quarter of the year, regarding both rev-enues and expenditure,” the Minister observed.

“However, during the second half, there were developments

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in the world economy which affected the oil market and thisreflected on revenues. Despite the difficulty, there is continuityin next year’s budget in approving projects in various sectors,which are vital to citizens’ living,” the Minister added.

He stressed that the Kingdom would continue with itsprivatization plans, especially for electricity, telecommunica-tions, the national carrier Saudi Arabian Airlines, sewage, waterdesalination, and other sectors.

The Minister said revenues in the current year’s budget wereestimated at $61.3bn, seven per cent more than the projected$57.33bn. Expenditure was estimated at $68bn, about 18.6 percent higher.

The balance of payments surplus for 2001 was estimated at$8.35bn, down from the previous year’s $14.32bn.

Nigeria receives IFAD loanfor agricultural programme

Abuja — Nigeria has received loans totalling $102 millionfrom the International Fund for Agricultural Development(IFAD), according to the Fund’s President, Lennart Bage.

Speaking after the signing of an agreement last month forthe sixth such loan, worth $29.9m, Bage noted that Nigeria wasnow IFAD’s largest beneficiary in West Africa.

The loan is part of a $68.5m community-based agriculturalprogramme in northern Borno, Jigawa, Kano, Sokoto, Katsina,Kebbi, Yobe and Zamfara states, where 60 per cent of theestimated 29m people live in poverty. The programme is ex-pected to help more than impoverished 2.5m people.

Bage said the loan was for financing agricultural and ruralcommunity development projects, in line with the government’sdesire to expand its social and economic development plans.

He noted that the programme would be built on experiencesgained from previously sponsored projects in Sokoto and Katsinastates, which has been judged successful by IFAD, the WorldBank, and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

The IFAD President said that while the new programmefocused on poverty reduction, the thrust of future support wouldbe to enhance capacity to identify, implement and evaluateprojects, according to accepted priorities and criteria.

He stressed the need for participation by people at thegrassroots level and expressed the hope that the fund wouldenhance local capabilities in functional literacy, primary healthfacilities, and food production.

The Nigerian Finance Minister, Adamu Ciroma, added thathis country was determined to improve its food productioncapacity.

“Nigeria must be large-hearted enough to produce food forits people and for its neighbours, to prevent those who are notecologically endowed from coming into the country to eat upwhat is meant for Nigerians,” he observed.

He said the Nigerian government had liberalized the importof agricultural implements and the production and sale offertilizer because it appreciated the importance of food tomeaningful development.

Iranian steel production,exports show increase

Tehran — Iran’s total production and exports of steel haveincreased by seven per cent and two per cent, respectively, theManaging Director of the National Iranian Steel Company(NISC), announced last month.

“Different units affiliated to the NISC produced over 4.6million tonnes of steel during the first eight months of thecurrent Iranian year (starting on March 21, 2001),” MostafaMo’azzenzadeh was quoted by the Islamic Republic NewsAgency (IRNA) as saying.

He noted that 1.1m t of the products, valued at $185m, wereexported, most of which had been produced at the Mobarakehsteel complex, the Isfahan steel mill, and the Ahvaz steel plant.

Mo’azzenzadeh pointed out that the NISC welcomed anyprivate sector presence in the steel industry, voicing the com-pany’s readiness for delivering various technical and researchinformation to the sector.

According to statistics released by the firm, Iran ranked firstand twenty-first in the Middle East and the world, respectively,in terms of steel and iron production. China is currently theworld’s largest producer of iron and steel.

The NISC covers a wide range of steel-producing plants,which include the 1945 Russian-built Isfahan steel mill, theMobarakeh steel complex at Isfahan, and the Ahvaz steel plantat Khuzestan.

Together, these three plants are the leading producers andexporters of steel products in the country.

Saudi Arabian industrial sectorposts impressive growth

Riyadh — Industrial and foreign trade activities in SaudiArabia recorded considerable growth during the first half of2001, according to a recent report.

Ten new domestic factories with total combined capital of$23.73 million went into production during the period, furtherboosting the country’s drive towards diversifying its economy.

The report, by the Eastern Province Chamber of Commerceand Industry, noted that the 10 units also created 467 jobs. Thefactories, which produced automatic metal doors, mufflers,fertilizers, and chemicals, were situated in Tabuk, Buraydah andTaif.

The Eastern Province and Jeddah region were the largestbeneficiaries, as they accounted for seven of the 10 units. Theirshare of total investment added up to 80 per cent.

Meanwhile the boom which the country witnessed in itsforeign trade during the year 2000 continued unabated duringthe first quarter of 2001, as both exports and imports madefurther headway.

Saudi imports jumped by 12 per cent to a value of $9 billionin the quarter, compared with the same period in 2000, rep-resenting an all-time high for quarterly imports.

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Predictions made around the middle of the year indicatedthat average imports for the whole of 2001 would reach a recordvalue of $35.73bn. In 2000, imports rose strongly to a valueof $30bn, the second highest level since 1992, when they stoodat $33.33bn.

Algeria signs co-operationdeal with European Union

Algiers — Algeria and the European Union (EU) last monthsigned a Euro-Mediterranean co-operation accord, it has beenannounced.

The endorsement of the agreement, which was signed in thepresence of Algerian President, Abdelaziz Bouteflika and thePresident of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, marksthe end of a series of extended negotiations between the twosides.

The accord is scheduled to come into force in the first halfof 2002, after its final signing and ratification by the parliamentsof Algeria and those of the 15 member states of the EU.

Once the accord is adopted and ratified, the two sides willset up an institutional organization to oversee the implemen-tation of the clauses of the agreement. This is due to lead to thesetting of a free trade area between the two sides in 2010.

Under the terms of the agreement, Algeria and the EU arejointly committed to the liberalization of bilateral trade. Theywill also seek to progressively remove customs barriers onimports of European industrial products.

The EU will apply a liberalization policy to a large numberof Algerian agricultural products, while the two sides also agreedto reduce taxes applied to farm produce, as well as to fishproducts.

Indonesian government neartarget on fiscal tax revenue

Jakarta — The Indonesian government had met 91.45 percent of its fiscal tax revenue target by the end of November,according to the Director General of Tax in the Finance Min-istry, Hadi Purnomo.

Tax revenue from January through to the end of Novemberhad reached in excess of 143 trillion rupiahs (over $14 billion),compared with the budget target of 157tr rupiahs for the wholeyear.

Income tax in foreign currencies amounted to 2.4tr rupiahs,while the oil and gas sector stood at 774.7bn rupiahs. The valueadded tax and luxury tax totalled 193.7bn rupiahs.

Hadi said income tax revenue from the non-oil and gas sectoramounted to 865.7bn rupiahs, while revenue from land andbuilding tax, as well as acquisition fees, stood at 30.3bn rupiahs.

The government’s tax revenue target for the year 2002 washigher than that for 2001, having been set at 184.7tr rupiahs,he noted.

Nigeria gets UNDP fundsfor fight against poverty

Abuja — The United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) has pledged $700 million naira (about $6.25m) as itscontribution to the Human Development Fund, a new initiativeto create a coalition of development partners in the fight againstpoverty in Nigeria.

The Fund is designed to sensitize and mobilize additionalresources for community development activities from the privi-leged strata of society, to complement government efforts atimproving the living conditions of the poor.

The UNDP’s Representative in Nigeria, Professor MbanyaKankwenda, said in Lagos that the funds raised would be usedto provide clean water and sanitation, basic healthcare, jobcreation opportunities for youths in rural communities, func-tional literacy, and micro-credit facilities, among others.

He expressed regret that, in spite of Nigeria’s enormouswealth, more than two-thirds of its people lived below povertylevels, with organizations more concerned about the interests oftheir shareholders, rather than their stakeholders.

Kankwenda described the Fund as creating a “win-winsituation” for the private sector partners, the government, andthe UNDP, saying: “We cannot leave out the people in theprocess of development. Paying attention to the interests ofstakeholders is a way by business owners to secure their invest-ments.”

He explained that the UNDP’s contribution would com-prise funds for development projects in each state, as well asfinancing for schemes at the national level.

The UNDP, he noted, had development projects in morethan 400 communities across the country, with a presence in10-16 communities in every Nigerian state.

Priority areas of human development under, he added,would be integrated community development projects, skillsacquisition and development, capacity building, and micro-credit.

Kankwenda stressed the need for the government to harnessthe country’s vast human and material resources for rapid andsustainable improvement in the quality of life of the people.

Iran-China trade recordsstrong increase in 1H01

Beijing — Iran and China exchanged $1.62 billion worth ofgoods in the first half of last year, according to statistics issuedby the Chinese Customs Administration.

The figures indicate an increase of 47.8 per cent over thetotal value of bilateral trade recorded for the correspondingperiod in 2000.

The Administration noted that Iran ranked second amongMiddle East nations and twenty-fourth in the world, in termsof the value of goods transacted with China.

It predicted that the value of bilateral trade between the twocountries for the whole of 2001 would exceed $3 billion.

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porting the development of local capitalmarkets. Under the Facility, loans are madeto financial institutions for on-lending tosmall, medium and micro-enterprises, aswell as directly to specific projects. Equityparticipation in private enterprises is alsoundertaken, either directly or throughcountry or regional investment funds. Asa pre-condition to such investment, theFund requires signature of a standardagreement with the country concerned forthe encouragement and protection of in-vestment. The agreement accords theOPEC Fund the same privileges as thosenormally given to international develop-ment institutions in which the countryholds membership.

Morocco has a total population esti-mated at 28.7 million in 2000 and a GNP

per capita of $1,180. The services sectoraccounts for 54 per cent of GDP, whereasindustry contributes 33 per cent and ag-riculture 13 per cent, although the latteremploys some 40 per cent of the total laborforce compared to 35 per cent and 25 percent respectively for the first two sectors.The country’s economy is relatively open,with exports and imports amounting toabout 65 per cent of GDP. A privatizationprogram was implemented in 1993 andhas since proceeded steadily, and aroundhalf of the projected privatizations havetaken place to date. These and othermeasures have greatly enhanced opennessand competitiveness, and have helped

create a hospitable enabling environmentfor the promotion of enterprises in thecountry’s private sector, a sector regardedby government as critical to the economicdevelopment of the country.

No 91/2001Vienna, Austria, December 6, 2001

OPEC Fund receivesChairman of the G-77The OPEC Fund for International Devel-opment was today honored to receive toits premises HE Ambassador Bagher Asadi,Chairman of the Group of 77 (G-77). TheAmbassador met with the Fund’s Direc-tor-General, HE Dr Y Seyyid Abdulai,and members of Senior Management foran exchange of views on matters of com-mon interest.

The discussions focused on issues ofconcern to countries of the South, as wellas the role of the OPEC Fund in the areaof development assistance, and its co-operation with other development institu-tions, especially those of the UnitedNations System.

Since its inception in 1976, the Fundhas co-financed a wide and varied numberof development schemes in conjunctionwith, among others, the United NationsDevelopment Program (UNDP), theUnited Nations Fund for PopulationActivities (UNFPA), the United NationsChildren’s Fund (UNICEF) and theWorld Food Program (WFP). ThroughUNDP the Fund has sponsored activitiesin the areas of energy, agriculture, health,vocational training and research. WithUNFPA, the focus has been on projectsrelating to maternal and child health, whilethose financed in co-operation withUNICEF have involved primarily immu-nization programs and rural water supplyand sanitation schemes. In 1981, the Funddonated $25 million to the InternationalEmergency Food Reserve, jointly admin-istered by the WFP and the Food andAgriculture Organization of the UnitedNations, and established to ensure theavailability of emergency food reserves forthe benefit of low-income developingcountries.

The G-77 was established in June 1964

OPEC Fund for International Development,Parkring 8, PO Box 995, 1011 Vienna, Austria.Tel: +43 1 515640; fax: +43 1 513 9238; tx: 1-31734 fund a; cable: opecfund; e-mail:[email protected]; Web site: http://www.opecfund.org.

Chairman of Group of 77developing countries visits

OPEC Fund’s headquarters in ViennaIn December 2001, the OPEC Fund for International Development hadthe honour of a visit from the Chairman of the Group of 77 developingcountries. In the same month, the Fund signed two agreements, one to protectand encourage investment with Morocco, and the other to enhance co-operation with the Economic and Social Development Bank of Venezuelaand the Association of Caribbean States. Details can be found in the followingpress releases.

No 90/2001Vienna, Austria, December 4, 2001

OPEC Fund andMorocco signinvestment agreement

An agreement for the encouragement andprotection of investment has been signedbetween the OPEC Fund for Interna-tional Development and Morocco. Drawnup within the framework of the Fund’sPrivate Sector Facility, the convention wasinitialed by HE Fathallah Oualalou, Min-ister of Economy, Finance, Privatizationand Tourism of the Kingdom of Morocco,and by HE Dr Y Seyyid Abdulai, Direc-tor-General of the OPEC Fund.

The Fund’s Private Sector Facility is afinancing window, endowed with its ownresources, through which the Fund chan-nels support directly to the private sectorin developing countries. The objectives ofthe Facility are to promote economicdevelopment by encouraging the growthof productive private enterprise and sup-

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by the 77 developing country signatoriesof the Joint Declaration of the Seventy-Seven Countries, which was issued at theend of the first session of UNCTAD inGeneva. It was created as a means to ar-ticulate and promote the collective eco-nomic interests of its members and enhancetheir joint negotiating capacity on all majoreconomic issues in the UN System. Begin-ning with the first ministerial meeting ofthe G-77 in Algiers in 1967, a permanentinstitutional structure gradually developed.Although the membership of the G-77 hasincreased to 133 countries, the originalname has been retained because of itshistorical significance.

No 92/2001Vienna, Austria, December 20, 2001

Co-operation agreementsigned between the Fund,BANDES and the ACS

A Co-operation Agreement has been en-tered into between the OPEC Fund forInternational Development, the Economicand Social Development Bank of Ven-ezuela (BANDES) * and the Associationof Caribbean States (ACS). The signaturetook place at the Third Summit of Headsof State and Government of the States andTerritories of the ACS that was held inPorlamar, Margarita Island, BolivarianRepublic of Venezuela from December11–12, 2001.

Within the framework of the agree-ment, the OPEC Fund, BANDES andACS will, to the fullest extent practicable,encourage, develop and facilitate jointactivities through lending and other formsof investment activity. In furtherance ofthis objective, these institutions will coor-dinate their financial assistance in supportof development programs and projects ineligible ACS member countries and insuch priority sectors as identified by theACS countries. The agreement was signedby HE Dr Jorge Giordani, President (Ag)

of BANDES, HE Prof Norman Girvan,Secretary-General of ACS, and by HE DrY Seyyid Abdulai, Director-General of theOPEC Fund.

Addressing the meeting of ACS Headsof State and Government, Dr Abdulaireferred to some of the unique featurescharacterizing the OPEC Fund. He em-phasized that his institution had beenestablished by a few developing countrieswhich, while oil producers, were in theirmajority borrowers of capital needed fortheir own development, and whose com-bined gross national income (GNI) did notmatch the GNI of any one of the majorOECD countries. He also indicated thatthe member countries of the OPEC Fundwere not eligible for its assistance; theFund extends its assistance to non-mem-ber developing countries who do notcontribute to its resources. Dr Abdulaitouched upon the Fund’s permanent questfor relevance in a continuously changingworld, while at the same time “adheringto basic values which transcend techniquesand methodologies of particular moments.”

Dr Abdulai paid tribute “to the in-creasing aid efforts of the Bolivarian Re-public of Venezuela, a co-founder of allthe OPEC organizations. Venezuela hasgenerously contributed to the develop-ment of its neighboring as well as far awaycountries, bilaterally and multilaterally.”

The OPEC Fund’s Director-Generalacknowledged “the remarkable efforts ofHE President Hugo Chávez Frías in fa-vour of stronger OPEC organizations andin favor of constructive dialogue with theirpartners.”

He referred to the decisions of theSummit aimed at eradicating abject pov-erty, ridding the world of diseases of pastages, and combating illiteracy, and em-phasizing the need for sustainable devel-opment, international co-operation, andthe reform of economic, trade and finan-cial mechanisms with a view to ensuringa fair and equitable treatment for theunderprivileged countries.

In the Final Declaration signed by 26countries — The Margarita Declaration— the participants of the Third ACSSummit committed themselves to theprinciples and objectives enshrined in theconvention establishing the ACS. Theyreiterated “the need to work jointly toconsolidate a broad economic space for

trade and investment, and (to) encouragethe reduction of obstacles to trade in theGreater Caribbean.”

The heads of state and governmentalso indicated their appreciation of theefforts of Venezuela in conducting thenegotiations leading to the creation of aProtocol of Co-operation between theOPEC Fund, BANDES and the ACS. APlan of Action was also adopted at theSummit, which will be completed withina two-year period.

Cartagena ConventionACS is an intergovernmental organi-

zation, which was launched with the sign-ing of the Convention in Cartagena deIndias, in Colombia, July 1994. It com-prises 25 member states and three associ-ate members. The ACS full members areAntigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Bar-bados, Belize, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba,Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Sal-vador, Grenada, Guatemala, Guyana,Haiti, Honduras, Mexico, Jamaica, Nica-ragua, Panama, St Kitts and Nevis, StLucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines,Suriname, Trinidad & Tobago, and Ven-ezuela. The associate members are Aruba,France on behalf of French Guiana,Guadeloupe and Martinique, and theNetherlands Antilles. In 1996, ACS estab-lished a Special Fund to finance activitiesthat help strengthen development co-op-eration among its members and facilitatethe integration process within the region.Priority is accorded to projects in areassuch as transportation, tourism, trade,natural disasters, environmental protec-tion, promotion and development of smalland medium-sized enterprises, and infor-mation systems. ACS full members repre-sent 71 per cent of all the countries inLatin America and the Caribbean; its 222million people constitute nearly one-halfof the region’s population and its $700billion GDP is one-third of the GDP of LatinAmerica and the Caribbean.

The OPEC Fund has since its incep-tion been active in the region of theACS and has extended development as-sistance to 20 ACS member countries, inthe form of concessional project, programand balance of payment support loans, aswell as grants to finance a number oftechnical assistance schemes and emer-gency relief.

* BANDES is successor to the Venezuelan In-vestment Fund and operates under the aegis ofthe Venezuelan Ministry of Planning andDevelopment.

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January 2002 41

G E N E R A L I N D E X 2 0 0 1

This general index covers all themain articles published in theOPEC Bulletin from January–December 2001 (Volume XXXII,Nos 1–12, 2001). An alphabeti-cal list of authors follows. Annualindices for previous years can befound in the final issue of eachvolume.

Commentary: Acting in anticipation —The recent decision to trim output by 1.5mb/d is evidence of OPEC’s more proactiveapproach to market stability. January 2001,p3.

Forum: OPEC: maintaining oil marketstability while facing the future with con-fidence. By HE Dr Rilwanu Lukman,former OPEC Secretary General. January2001, p4.

Conference Notes: 113th Meeting of theOPEC Conference. OPEC Press Releasesnos 1–2/2001. January 2001, p8.

OPEC Secretariat Reception: OPEC Sec-retariat hosts reception for the incomingand outgoing Secretaries General. Janu-ary 2001, p18.

Russian Federation Reception: RussianFederation holds reception for DrRodríguez Araque and Dr Lukman. Janu-ary 2001, p28.

OPEC/US DoE meeting: OPEC and USEnergy Secretary hold informal meeting.January 2001, p33.

Millennium Party: OPEC/OPEC FundSocial Committee’s Millennium Party.January 2001, p34.

Environment Notebook: COP 6. Janu-ary 2001, p51.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 86–87/2000. January 2001, p77.

Commentary: A matter of facts — OPEC’smore proactive information policy opensthe way to a greater understanding of theOrganization and its aims. February 2001,p3.

Forum: What should developing coun-tries do to benefit from their oil wealth?By HE Alí Rodríguez Araque, OPEC Sec-retary General. February 2001, p4.

Secretariat Notes: Rodríguez Araque meetsMembers of the Austrian Government.President Klestil honours Dr RilwanuLukman. February 6, 2001, p6.

Iranian Concert: OPEC Secretariat hostsOriental Percussion Ensemble of Tehran.February 2001, p10.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 1–5/2001. February 2001, p45.

Commentary: Kyoto: the way forward —The US President’s recent remarks on Kyotohave highlighted the need for a fresh ap-proach to the environmental debate. March2001, p3.

Forum: Are the world’s oil resources lim-ited? An OPEC point of view. By DrShokri Ghanem, Director of OPEC’sResearch Division. March 2001, p4.

Forum: California dreaming? Speakingthe unspeakable about electricity deregu-lation. By Professor Ferdinand E Banks,Uppsala University. March 2001, p7.

Conference Notes: 114th OPEC Confer-ence agrees to cut production by 1m b/d.OPEC Press Releases Nos 3–4/2001.March 2001, p12.

OPEC Press Release No 5/2001: OPECSecretary General urges broader perspec-tive on global warming. March 2001, p9.

Secretariat Notes: Secretary General payscourtesy call on Austrian President. March2001, p20.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 6–16/2001. March 2001, p56.

Commentary: The importance of invest-ment — Healthy oil prices are not justbeneficial to OPEC nations: they are vitalfor the long-term future of the oil industry.April 2001, p3.

OPEC Press Releases Nos 6–7/2001: USCongress bill against OPEC violates most

basic legal principles. Resolutions of the114th Meeting of the Conference. April2001, p4.

Forum: Challenges facing the oil-produc-ing countries in the 21st century. By HEDr Alí Rodríguez Araque, OPEC Secre-tary General. April 2001, p6.

Secretariat Notes: OPEC Secretary Gen-eral meets Austrian Chancellor Schüsseland Foreign Minister Ferrero-Waldner.April 2001, p9.

Egyptian Concert: OPEC Secretariat hostsconcert of traditional Egyptian music bythe group Banat El Nil. April 2001, p10.

Interview: OPEC: confronting new reali-ties and meeting the environmental andtechnological challenges of the 21st cen-tury. HE Dr Alí Rodríguez Araque, OPECSecretary General. April 2001, p11.

Environment Notebook: US PresidentBush rejects Kyoto Protocol and IPCCreleases its summary for policy makers.April 2001, p26.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 17–27/2001. April 2001, p49.

Commentary: Building a better future —The Third UN Conference on LDCshas adopted admirable goals, but positiveaction will be needed to realize them. May2001, p3.

OPEC Press Release No 9/2001: OPECSecretary General expresses sympathy overUS refinery problems. May 2001, p4.

Forum: OPEC and the geopolitics of theinternational oil and gas industry. By HEDr Alí Rodríguez Araque, OPEC Secre-tary General. May 2001, p5.

Forum: Future challenges for OPEC andits Members in the global petroleum sector.By Dr Shokri Ghanem, Director of OPEC’sResearch Division. May 2001, p8.

Commentary: A forum for co-operation— The formation of the Gas ExportingCountries Forum offers an opportunity tostrengthen co-operation between producersand consumers. June 2001, p3.

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42 OPEC Bulletin

G E N E R A L I N D E X 2 0 0 1

Forum: World oil: scarce or abundant? ByProfessor Ferdinand E Banks, UppsalaUniversity, Sweden. June 2001, p4.

Conference Notes: 115th (Extraordinary)Meeting of the OPEC Conference. OPECPress Releases Nos 10–11/2001. June2001, p8.

OPEC Press Release No 12/2001: Infla-tionary pressure not linked to oil prices —Rodríguez Araque. June 2001, p13.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 28–39/2001. June 2001, p46.

Commentary: Drop the autopilot —OPEC’s proactive decision to cut output byone million b/d just three weeks after the116th Conference is a sign of strength. July2001, p3.

Forum: The global oil market: what liesahead? By Javad Yarjani, Head of OPEC’sPetroleum Market Analysis Department.July 2001, p4.

Conference Notes: 116th (Extraordinary)Meeting of the OPEC Conference. OPECPress Releases Nos 13–14/2001. July2001, p8.

OPEC Press Release No 15/2001: OPECsees oil demand growth at 850,000 b/d in2001. July 2001, p17.

Secretariat Notes: Director of ResearchDivision completes term of office. Ven-ezuelan soprano gives concert of operaarias at OPEC Secretariat. July 2001,p18.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 40–50/2001. July 2001, p53.

Commentary: Towards a fairer world —The world’s industrialized nations mustshoulder their responsibilities in the battleagainst global poverty. August 2001, p3.

Forum: OPEC and the international oilmarket in the near future. By HE Dr AlíRodríguez Araque, Secretary General ofOPEC. August 2001, p4.

Venezuelan Concert: Coral Aequalis givesconcert of choral music. August 2001, p7.

Profile of Nigeria: Nigeria: a nation witha rich history, a vibrant oil and gas indus-try and a highly promising future. ByFarouk U Muhammed, mni, Head ofOPEC’s PR & Information Department.August 2001, p8–48.

Profile of Nigeria: Nigeria: making maxi-mum use of its oil and gas resources forthe benefit of the West African region.Interview with HE Dr Rilwanu Lukman,Nigerian Presidential Adviser on Petro-leum and Energy and former OPEC Sec-retary General. August 2001, p12.

Profile of Nigeria: Steering the NigerianNational Petroleum Corporation towardsthe future in a democratic Nigeria. Inter-view with Jackson Gaius-Obaseki, GroupManaging Director at the NNPC. August2001, p16.

Nigeria: Profile of NPDC: The NigerianPetroleum Development Company: adomestic firm making an upstream im-pact. August 2001, p24.

Nigeria: Profile of IDSL: Integrated DataServices Ltd: leading the search for oil andgas. August 2001, p26.

Nigeria: Profile of PPMC: The Pipelines& Products Marketing Co: transportingpetroleum to Nigerians. August 2001,p28.

Nigeria: Refineries: Nigeria’s oil refiner-ies: striving towards self-sufficiency. Au-gust 2001, p31.

Nigeria: Profile of RDD: Research andDevelopment Division: driven by innova-tion and quality. August 2001, p32.

Nigeria: Profile of GHRDD: GroupHuman Resources Development Dept:committed to achieving excellence. Au-gust 2001, p34.

Nigeria: Profile of NGC: The NigerianGas Company: harnessing a clean energysource. Interview with E A Olukoga,Director, NGC. August 2001, p35.

Nigeria: Profile of NLNG: Nigeria Lique-fied Natural Gas: monetizing the nation’sgas reserves. August 2001, p38.

Nigeria: Profile of EPCL: Eleme Petro-chemicals Company Ltd: a world-scalepetrochemical complex. August 2001,p39.

Nigeria: Profile of the DPR: The Depart-ment of Petroleum Resources: overseeingNigeria’s petroleum industry. August2001, p42.

Nigeria: The Ministry of Environment:aiming for zero gas flaring by 2008. Au-gust 2001, p44.

Nigeria: Demonstrating environmentalresponsibility. Address by Chief Dr ImeTitus Okopido, Minister of State forEnvironment. August 2001, p46.

Nigeria: striving for peace, equity, tech-nology and economic development. Au-gust 2001, p47.

Environment Notebook: COP6 signshistoric agreement. August 2001, p58.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 51–55/2001. August 2001, p84.

Commentary: Forging new alliances —The global economy will recover from thehorrific events of September 11, but it willrequire international co-operation on a grandscale. September 2001, p3.

Forum: The impact of oil price fluctua-tions on the world economy. By HE DrAlí Rodríguez Araque, Secretary Generalof OPEC. September 2001, p4.

Conference Notes: 117th Meeting of theConference agrees to keep oil outputunchanged. OPEC Press Releases Nos 19–20/2001. September 2001, p8.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 56–63/2001. September 2001, p50.

Commentary: Harnessing global synergy— With the threat of a worldwide recessionlooming ever larger, the poorer members ofthe global community should not be forgot-ten. October 2001, p3.

Forum: The outlook for world oil pricesand the impact on the gas industry. ByJavad Yarjani, Head, OPEC’s Petroleum

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January 2002 43

G E N E R A L I N D E X 2 0 0 1

Market Analysis Department. October2001, p4.

Presidential Visit: Venezuelan PresidentHugo Chávez visits OPEC and OPECFund. October 2001, p8.

OPEC Seminar: OPEC and the GlobalEnergy Balance. October 2001, p12.

OPEC Seminar: Opening address byOPEC Secretary General, HE Dr AlíRodríguez Araque. October 2001, p12.

OPEC Seminar: Opening address by Al-gerian Minister of Energy & Mines andPresident of the Conference, HE DrChakib Khelil. October 2001, p13.

OPEC Seminar: a quest for unity. By DrAbdulrahman Al-Kheraigi, OPEC’s Me-dia Relations Officer. October 2001, p19.

OPEC Press Release No 21/2001: Reso-lutions of the 117th Meeting of the OPECConference. October 2001, p20.

OPEC Press Release No 18/2001: OPECcommitted to ensuring adequate oilsupplies — Rodríguez. October 2001,p21.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 64–65/2001. October 2001, p53.

Commentary: Strength in unity — Theattachment of conditionality by OPEC to itslatest agreement to cut output by 1.5m b/dwill help to promote market stability. No-vember 2001, p3.

Forum: Assessing today’s supplies to fueltomorrow’s growth. By Robert Priddle,Executive Director of the IEA. November2001, p4.

OPEC Press Release No 22/2001: State-ment by Dr Alí Rodríguez Araque, Secre-tary General, OPEC to the 7th Conferenceof the Parties to the UNFCCC. Novem-ber 2001, p7.

Conference Notes: 118th (Extraordinary)

113th Meeting of the OPEC Conference.January 2001, p8.

114th OPEC Conference agrees to cutproduction by 1m b/d. March 2001, p12.

115th (Extraordinary) Meeting of theOPEC Conference. June 2001, p8.

116th (Extraordinary) Meeting of theOPEC Conference. July 2001, p8.

117th Meeting of the Conference agrees tokeep oil output unchanged. September2001, p8.

118th (Extraordinary) OPEC Conference.November 2001, p8.

A forum for co-operation — The forma-tion of the Gas Exporting Countries Forumoffers an opportunity to strengthen co-opera-tion between producers and consumers. June2001, p3.

A matter of facts — OPEC’s more proactiveinformation policy opens the way to a greaterunderstanding of the Organization and itsaims. February 2001, p3.

Acting in anticipation — The recent deci-sion to trim output by 1.5m b/d is evidenceof OPEC’s more proactive approach to marketstability. January 2001, p3.

Are the world’s oil resources limited? AnOPEC point of view. March 2001, p4.

Assessing today’s supplies to fuel tomor-row’s growth. November 2001, p4.

Building a better future — The Third UNConference on LDCs has adopted admirablegoals, but positive action will be needed torealize them. May 2001, p3.

California dreaming? Speaking the un-speakable about electricity deregulation.March 2001, p7.

Challenges facing the oil-producing coun-tries in the 21st century. April 2001, p6.

Co-operation in Cairo — The historic cityof Cairo is the setting for a landmark agree-ment between OPEC and non-OPEC na-tions. December 2001, p3.

COP6, January 2001, p51; COP6 (PartII), November 2001, p26; COP6 signshistoric agreement, August 2001, p58.

Drop the autopilot — OPEC’s proactivedecision to cut output by one million b/d justthree weeks after the 116th Conference is asign of strength. July 2001, p3.

Forging new alliances — The globaleconomy will recover from the horrific eventsof September 11, but it will require inter-national co-operation on a grand scale.September 2001, p3.

Forging towards a new order in the petro-

OPEC Conference. OPEC Press ReleasesNos 23–24/2001. November 2001, p8.

Environment Notebook: COP6 (Part II).November 2001, p26.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 66–81/2001. November 2001, p52.

Commentary: Co-operation in Cairo —The historic city of Cairo is the setting fora landmark agreement between OPECand non-OPEC nations. December 2001,p3.

Forum: Forging towards a new order inthe petroleum industry: the challengesahead. By Dr Alí Rodríguez Araque, OPECSecretary General. December 2001, p4.

OPEC Press Release No 27: ConsultativeMeeting of the OPEC Conference in Cairo,Egypt. December 2001, p7.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 82-89/2001. December 2001, p41.

SUBJECT INDEX

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44 OPEC Bulletin

G E N E R A L I N D E X 2 0 0 1

leum industry: the challenges ahead.December 2001, p4.

Future challenges for OPEC and itsMembers in the global petroleum sector.May 2001, p8.

Harnessing global synergy — With thethreat of a worldwide recession looming everlarger, the poorer members of the globalcommunity should not be forgotten. Octo-ber 2001, p3.

Kyoto: the way forward — The US Presi-dent’s recent remarks on Kyoto have high-lighted the need for a fresh approach to theenvironmental debate. March 2001, p3.

Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas: monetizingthe nation’s gas reserves. August 2001,p38.

Nigeria: a nation with a rich history, avibrant oil and gas industry and a highlypromising future. August 2001, p8–48.

Nigeria: Demonstrating environmentalresponsibility. August 2001, p46.

Nigeria: Eleme Petrochemicals CompanyLtd: a world-scale petrochemical complex.August 2001, p39.

Nigeria: Group Human Resources Devel-opment Dept: committed to achievingexcellence. August 2001, p34.

Nigeria: Integrated Data Services Ltd:leading the search for oil and gas. August2001, p26.

Nigeria: making maximum use of its oiland gas resources for the benefit of theWest African region. August 2001, p12.

Nigeria: Refineries: Nigeria’s oil refiner-ies: striving towards self-sufficiency. Au-gust 2001, p31.

Nigeria: Research and Development Di-vision: driven by innovation and quality.August 2001, p32.

Nigeria: Steering the Nigerian NationalPetroleum Corporation towards the fu-ture in a democratic Nigeria. August 2001,p16.

Nigeria: striving for peace, equity, tech-nology and economic development. Au-gust 2001, p47.

Nigeria: The Department of PetroleumResources: overseeing Nigeria’s petroleumindustry. August 2001, p42.

Nigeria: The Ministry of Environment:aiming for zero gas flaring by 2008. Au-gust 2001, p44.

Nigeria: The Nigerian Gas Company:harnessing a clean energy source. August2001, p35.

Nigeria: The Nigerian Petroleum Devel-opment Company: a domestic firm mak-ing an upstream impact. August 2001,p24.

Nigeria: The Pipelines & Products Mar-keting Co: transporting petroleum toNigerians. August 2001, p28.

OPEC and the geopolitics of the interna-tional oil and gas industry. May 2001, p5.

OPEC and the Global Energy Balance.October 2001, p12.

OPEC and the international oil market inthe near future. August 2001, p4.

OPEC Fund Press Releases: Nos 86–87/2000, January 2001, p77; Nos 1–5/2001,February 2001, p45; Nos 6–16/2001,March 2001, p56; Nos 17–27/2001,April 2001, p49; Nos 28–39/2001, June2001, p46; Nos 40–50/2001, July 2001,p53; Nos 51–55/2001, August 2001,p84; Nos 56–63/2001, September 2001,p50; Nos 64–65/2001, October 2001,p53; Nos 66–81/2001, November 2001,p52; Nos 82-89/2001, December 2001,p41.

OPEC Press Releases: Nos 1–2/2001,January 2001, p8; Nos 3–4/2001, March2001, p12; No 5/2001, March 2001, p9;Nos 6–7/2001, April 2001, p4; No 9/2001, May 2001, p4; Nos 10–11/2001,June 2001, p8; No 12/2001, June 2001,p13; Nos 13–14/2001, July 2001, p8;No 15/2001, July 2001, p17; Nos 19–20/2001, September 2001, p8; No 21/2001, October 2001, p20; No 18/2001,

October 2001, p21; No 22/2001, No-vember 2001, p7; Nos 23–24/2001,November 2001, p8; No 27, December2001, p7.

OPEC Seminar: a quest for unity. Octo-ber 2001, p19.

OPEC: confronting new realities andmeeting the environmental and techno-logical challenges of the 21st century. April2001, p11.

OPEC: maintaining oil market stabilitywhile facing the future with confidence.January 2001, p4.

Strength in unity — The attachment ofconditionality by OPEC to its latest agree-ment to cut output by 1.5m b/d will help topromote market stability. November 2001,p3.

The global oil market: what lies ahead?July 2001, p4.

The impact of oil price fluctuations on theworld economy. September 2001, p4.

The importance of investment — Healthyoil prices are not just beneficial to OPECnations: they are vital for the long-termfuture of the oil industry. April 2001, p3.

The outlook for world oil prices and theimpact on the gas industry. October 2001,p4.

Towards a fairer world — The world’sindustrialized nations must shoulder theirresponsibilities in the battle against globalpoverty. August 2001, p3.

US President Bush rejects Kyoto Protocoland IPCC releases its summary for policymakers. April 2001, p26.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez visitsOPEC and OPEC Fund. October 2001,p8.

What should developing countries do tobenefit from their oil wealth? February2001, p4.

World oil: scarce or abundant? June 2001,p4.

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January 2002 45

S E C R E T A R I A T N O T E S

Al-Kheraigi, Dr Abdulrahman, OPEC’sMedia Relations Officer. October 2001,p19.

Banks, Professor Ferdinand E, UppsalaUniversity. March 2001, p7; June 2001,p4.

Gaius-Obaseki, Jackson, NNPC GroupManaging Director. August 2001, p16.

Ghanem, Dr Shokri, Director of OPEC’sResearch Division. March 2001, p4; May2001, p8.

Khelil, HE Dr Chakib. Algerian Ministerof Energy & Mines and President of theConference. October 2001, p13.

Lukman, HE Dr Rilwanu, former OPECSecretary General. January 2001, p4;August 2001, p12.

Muhammed, mni, Farouk U, Head of

AUTHORS’ INDEX

OPEC’s PR & Information Department.August 2001, p8–48.

Okopido, Chief Dr Ime Titus, Ministerof State for Environment. August 2001,p46.

Olukoga, E A, Director, NGC. August2001, p35.

Priddle, Robert, Executive Director of theIEA. November 2001, p4.

Rodríguez Araque, HE Alí, OPEC Secre-tary General. February 2001, p4; April2001, p6; April 2001, p11; May 2001,p5; June 2001, p13; August 2001, p4;September 2001, p4; October 2001,p12; October 2001, p21; November2001, p7; December 2001, p4.

Yarjani, Javad, Head of OPEC’s Petro-leum Market Analysis Department. July2001, p4; October 2001, p4.

Secretary General’s diary

A dinner speech was delivered to the Eu-ropean Energy Foundation, Brussels, Bel-gium, December 3, 2001.

An address was delivered to the FrenchInstitute of International Relations, Paris,France, December 4, 2001.

The III Summit of Heads of State of theAssociation of Caribbean Countries wasorganized by the Ministry for ForeignAffairs, Venezuela, and held in Caracas,Venezuela, December 11–12, 2001.

Secretariat missions

The Ninth Session of the General Confer-ence of United Nations Industrial Develop-ment Organization (UNIDO), was held inVienna, Austria, December 3–7, 2001.

A conference on Crown Resources/ArthurAndersen Proposal Regarding the Reorgani-zation of Russian Petroleum Exports wasorganized by Crown Resources, London,and held in Moscow, Russian Federation,December 10, 2001.

A Meeting of Russian Oil Producing andExporting Companies was organized by theFederal Foundation of Appraising, Mos-cow, and held in Moscow, Russian Fed-eration, December 11, 2001.

The 5th Annual Roundtable on Refiningand Petrochemicals in Russia and the CISRepublics was organized by the WorldRefining Association (WRA), and held inVienna, Austria, December 11–13, 2001.

OPEC Meetings

The 119th Meeting of the Conference will beheld at the OPEC Secretariat, Vienna,Austria, on March 15, 2002.

December

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46 OPEC Bulletin

O P E C F U N D N E W S

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January 2002 47

A D V E R T I S I N G R A T E S & D A T A

Reach decision-makers through OPEC BulletinThe OPEC Bulletin is distributed on subscription and to a selected readership in the following fields: oil and gas industry; energyand economics ministries; press and media; consultancy, science and research; service and ancillary industries. Recipients includeOPEC Ministers, other top-level officials and decision-makers in government and business circles, together with policy advisersin key industrial organizations.

The magazine not only conveys the viewpoints of OPEC and its Member Countries but also promotes discussion and dialogueamong all interested parties in the industry. It regularly features articles by officials of the Secretariat and leading industry observers.Each issue includes a topical OPEC commentary, oil and product market reports, official statements, and the latest energy andnon-energy news from Member Countries and other developing countries.

General termsOrders are accepted subject to the terms and conditions, current rates and technical data set out in the advertising brochure. Thesemay be varied without notice by the Publisher (OPEC). In particular, the Publisher reserves the right to refuse or withdraw advertisingfelt to be incompatible with the aims, standards or interests of the Organization, without necessarily stating a reason.

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48 OPEC Bulletin

O P E C F U N D N E W S

OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2000This 144-page book, including colour graphs and tables, comes with a 3.5" diskette featuring all the data in the book and more (forMicrosoft Windows only). The book plus diskette package costs $85.

❐ Please send me ................. copies of the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2000 (book plus diskette)

OPEC Bulletinis published monthly and a subscription costs $70 for 12 issues. Subscription commences with the current issue (unless otherwiserequested) after receipt of payment.

❐ I wish to subscribe to the OPEC Bulletin for a one-year period

OPEC News Agencyprovides a twice-daily news service on energy developments within Member Countries as well as reports from the key world energycentres. OPECNA also carries up-to-date data and reports prepared by the OPEC Secretariat. Charges depend on the mode oftransmission (e-mail, telefax or post) and location of subscriber.

❐ I would like information on subscription prices to OPECNA

OPEC Monthly Oil Market ReportPublished monthly, this source of key information about OPEC Member Country output also contains the Secretariat’s analyses of oiland product price movements, futures markets, the energy supply/demand balance, stock movements and global economic trends.$525 per year (including airmail delivery) for an annual subscription of 12 issues.

❐ I wish to subscribe to the MOMR for a one-year period ❐ Please send me a sample copy

OPEC Reviewcontains research papers by international experts on energy, the oil market, economic development and the environment. Availablequarterly only from the commercial publisher. For details contact: Paula O’Connor, Blackwell Publishers Journals, PO Box 805,108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1FH, UK. Tel: +44 (0)1865 244083; fax: +44 (0)1865 381381; e-mail:[email protected]; www.blackwellpublishers.co.uk. Institutional subscribers £177/yr (North/South America $274);Individuals £67/yr (North/South America $104).

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Please mail this form to:PR & Information Department or telefax to:OPEC Secretariat PR & Information DepartmentObere Donaustrasse 93, A-1020 Vienna, Austria +43 1 214 98 27

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