2

The electric grid is a complex system with unique characteristics

Physically Never holistically designed, grid developed

incrementally in response to local load growth Today, there are

30,000 Transmission paths; over 180k miles transmission line

14,000 Transmission substations Distribution grid connects these substations

with over 100 million loads Fragmented industry w/o a common voice

3,170 traditional electric utilities 239 investor-owned, 2,009 publicly owned,

912 consumer-owned rural cooperatives, and 10 Federal electric utilities.

Technically

Electricity flows within three major interconnections along paths of lowest impedance (at the speed of light); yet the grid is operated in a decentralized manner by over 140 control areas

Demand is uncontrolled; electricity is the ultimate “just-in-time” production process.

Uniqueness

Two things make electricity unique:

Lack of flow control

Electricity storage requirements

Change either of these and the grid delivery system will be transformed

3

Why is Grid Modernization Important?Outages and Power Quality Disturbances Cost the U.S. $79B Annually

Source: NERC Systems Disturbance Reports, 1992-2003.

Source: LaCommare, Kristina Hamachi and Eto, Joseph H. Understanding the Cost of Power Interruptions to U.S. Electricity Consumers. (Accessed May 19,2005).

Frequency of Outages and Disturbances LBNL Base-Case Estimate of the Cost of Power Interruptions by Types of Interruption

Productivity of businesses and industry Costs to states and local governments

Reliable electric service Costs of manufactured goods

Public Interest at Risk

4

Business-as-usual will not adequately address growing demands & emerging trends

Policy is needed to promoteinstallation of new transmission lines Strategically diverse generating resources need to be

connected Challenges to install required transmission lines will

continue

Additional Technology options, beyond installing transmission lines, will be needed for the future grid Increase power density down existing transmission

pathways Grid management & better utilization of existing

infrastructure to address peak load

5

More lines can not address transmission congestion in certain regions In certain highly populated regions of

the country, transmission lines alone will not be able to meet load growth

Atlantic coastal area from Metropolitan New York southward through northern Virginia,

Southern California

California state law on “Loading Order” is shifting the resource planning

Other alternatives must be considered Increased power density through

existing corridors Peak load reduction

Urban areas with high-speed communication infrastructure can enable available technologies

The challenge is to find a balance between upgrades and other actions that are urgently needed in the near term, and the need to develop realistic concepts for the future grid.

It will be important to ensure that near-term initiatives are robust “no regrets” projects, suitable to a wide range of possible futures.

-Transmission Congestion Study

William Street & Fulton Street, NY City (2003)

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Preparing the Grid Now to Meet Future Scenarios

• Interdependencies of electric and energy systems

20% renewable40% nuclear10-20% natural gas20-30% clean coal

50% Demand growthLoad curves – increased peakingPlug-in hybrids (25% increase demand) More electrically sensitive equipment

smart control areasEnergy Mgt Systems (70%)Additional 30,000 miles needed~ 22 million DG units (2.5x increase)Rerouting of power and self-healing

Infrastructure protection and securityIncreased globalizationMaterials and resource limitationsAll-hazard risks will continue to increase

Blackouts Aging InfrastructureVulnerability of assets

140 control areasEnergy Mgt Systems (<1%)180,000 miles wires~10 million DG units

1,000 GW capacityHybrids, No PHEVsElectrically-sensitive equipment (8 hrs/yr )

1% renewable20% nuclear30% natural gas49% coal

Changing Supply Mix • Requires increased margins• Requires additional transmission• Requires control/communications

Demand Transformation• Expanding Digital Economy• Power quality needs• Demand growth

2006 2035

Complexity of Grid

• Expanding footprint, overlay of markets, “closer to the edge”

Vulnerability of Energy Infrastructure

7

Benefits of Investing in Electric Infrastructure Technologies Increases grid reliability Reduces grid congestion Improves power quality Reduces system vulnerability Increases grid efficiency because inserting newer, more

efficient equipment Reduces costs associated with outages and power

disturbances Creates local jobs for installation, operation and

maintenance Supports competitive electricity market structure

8

Tomorrow’s Technology Examples

High Temperature Superconductivity Wires Cables

Visualization and Controls Real-time monitoring Smart Meters

Distributed Energy Resources Plug-In Hybrids and Vehicles to Grid Power Electronics Energy Storage

9

High Temperature Superconductivity (HTS)

Cable Configuration

Benefits: Increased grid reliability and security by

providing efficient power interconnections with high capacity

Minimal environmental impact: HTS cables can be readily permitted and installed in dense urban areas

Reduced right-of-way requirements (smaller footprint)

Has a 150x increase in power capacity compared with copper

10

Superconductivity vs Conventional Technology Comparison

HTS Motor for Navy

Conventional Motor

HTS Transformer

Conventional Transformer

Power Cables

11

Visualization and Controls Includes developing next generation system control and data acquisition

system with: GPS-synchronized grid monitoring Secure data communications Custom visualization and operating cuing Advanced control algorithms

Helps detect disturbances and prevent widespread outages Provides real-time information during energy emergencies

12

Grid monitoring and operations

Situational Awareness

Visualization and Controls

Benefits

Improves reliability Improves system efficiency and

energy efficiency Increases utilization of assets Reduces vulnerabilities

13

Distributed Energy Resources• Distributed energy resources are electric

generation systems located at or near the site where they are to be used.

• Examples include:• Reciprocating internal combustion engines • Combustion turbines (Simple Cycle or

Combined Cycle)• Microturbines• Fuel Cells• Small Wind Turbines• Photovoltaic Panels

• Distributed energy resources provide energy solutions for utilities, customers, and local energy systems such as district energy, power parks, and microgrids

Benefits

Increases grid reliability Addresses vulnerability of

critical infrastructure Helps manage peak loads Lowers emissions Helps customers manage energy

costs

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Customer Efficiency

Central Generation

Today's Today's Central UtilityCentral Utility

Tomorrow's Tomorrow's Distributed Utility?Distributed Utility?

RemoteLoads

Wind

PV

Genset

Fuel Cell

Battery

Customers

Central Generation

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Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs)

Source: Electric Power Research Institute

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PHEV Roll-Out Scenario (Per U.S. EPA)

In 2030: Annual sales reach 2.7 million

PHEVs 27 million PHEVs on the road (9% of the nearly 300 million

vehicles)

By comparison: Conventional hybrids

represented 1.2% of all U.S. sales in 2005 (~ 5% by 2010)

Passenger vehicle fleet: PHEVs start penetrating in 2011 and grow to 15% of passenger vehicle sales by 2030

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030Ne

wV

ehic

leS

ale

s(m

illio

ns)

..

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

In-U

seV

ehic

leP

op.(

milli

ons)

Passenger Cars Light Duty Trucks

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2nd Generation PHEV -- Vehicle to Grid

Time of Day

MW

Lo

ad

Off peak charging

Load leveling during extreme load events

Source: Prometheus Institute

Benefits: Load leveling; off peak

charging 24/7 grid services take

advantage of the 90%+ time that vehicles are not in use

Potential added revenue for utilities and consumers

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Power ElectronicsBenefits:

Allow precise and rapid switching of electric power to support long distance transmission.

This speed and precision will allow the system to more rapidly respond to system disturbances and allow the system to operate with lower margins and fewer constraints, thereby reducing the need for additional infrastructure

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Energy Storage

PumpStorage

1 MW1 kW 100 kW 10 MW 100 MW

Min

ute

sH

ou

rs

Max

imu

m D

isch

arg

e T

ime

High Energy Fly Wheels

Power Rating

CompressedAir

Flow Batteries

NAS Battery

Metal-Air Batteries

Advanced Batteries

Lead-Acid Batteries

Super Capacitors

Sec

on

ds

10 kW

Low Energy Fly Wheels SMES

Benefits

Increases grid reliability

Reduces system transmission

congestion

Helps manage peak loads

Makes renewable electricity sources

more dispatchable

In the electricity sector, supply is relatively fixed, at least in the short term, while demand will fluctuate

Developing technology to enable storing electrical energy so it can be available whenever needed and would represent an important breakthrough

Some of the energy storage technologies include: batteries, flywheels, and supercapacitors

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Source: Energy Storage Council

Benefits of Energy StorageAlong the Electricity Value Chain

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Conclusions The electricity grid is aging and reliability is a concern There are policy and technology options that will help to modernize

the electric grid. Some of the technology options include: High Temperature Superconductivity Visualization and Controls Distributed Systems Vehicle to Grid Power Electronics Energy Storage

Public-Private partnerships are key to making this happen

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Questions?

Energetics Incorporated

www.energetics.com

Peggy Welsh

Senior Consultant

pwelsh@energetics.com

202-406-4108