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20% Wind Energy by 2030 20% Wind Energy by 2030
20% Wind Energy by 2030
20% Wind Energy by 2030
Presentation and Objectives Overview
Background 20% Wind ScenarioCostsBenefitsChallengesSummary
The 20% Technical Report
Explores one scenario for reaching 20% wind energy by 2030 and contrasts it to a scenario in which no new U.S. wind power capacity is installedIs not a prediction, but an analysis based on one scenarioDoes not assume specific policy support for wind Is the work of more than 100 individuals involved from 2006 - 2008 (government, industry, utilities, NGOs)Analyzes wind’s potential contributions to energy security, economic prosperity and environmental sustainability
The 20% Wind Scenario
The 20% Wind Scenario
The 20% Wind Energy Scenario
Primary Assumptions:• U.S. electricity consumption grows 39% from 2005 to 2030 --
to 5.8 billion MWh (Source: EIA)• Wind turbine energy production increases about 15% by 2030• Wind turbine costs decrease about 10% by 2030• No major breakthroughs in wind technology
Primary Findings:• 20% wind electricity would require about 300 GW (300,000
MW) of wind generation• Affordable, accessible wind resources available across the
nation• Cost to integrate wind modest• Raw materials available • Transmission a challenge
WindPowerClass
ResourcePotential
Wind PowerDensity at 50 mW/m2
Wind Speedat 50 mm/s
a Wind Speedat 50 mmph
a
34567
FairGoodExcellentOutstandingSuperb
300 - 400400 - 500500 - 600600 - 800800 - 1600
6.4 - 7.07.0 - 7.57.5 - 8.08.0 - 8.88.8 - 11.1
14.3 - 15.715.7 - 16.816.8 - 17.917.9 - 19.719.7 - 24.8
a Wind speeds are based on a Weibull k value of 2.0
Wind Power Classification
U.S. Wind Resource Maps
Copyright © 2008 3TIER, Inc. All Rights Reserved. For permission to reproduce or
distribute: [email protected]
2010 Costs w/o PTC, w/o Transmission or Integration costs
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,0000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Quantity Available, GW
Leve
lized
Cos
t of E
nerg
y, $
/MW
h
Onshore
Class 6
Class 4
Class 7
Class 5
Class 3
Offshore
Class 6
Class 4
Class 7
Class 5
Class 3
Onshore
Shallow Offshore
Deep Offshore
Resource Potential Exceeds Total Electricity Demand
- 200 400 600 800 1,0000
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Quantity Available, GW
Leve
lized
Cos
t of E
nerg
y, $
/MW
h
Onshore
Class 6
Class 4
Class 7
Class 5
Class 3
Offshore
Class 6
Class 4
Class 7
Class 5
Class 3
10% of existing transmission capacity available to wind
2010 Costs w/o PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, w/o Integration costs
Cost of Wind and Transmission: Economically Available
Installed Capacity as of January 2008 = 16,904 MW
305 GW
20% Wind Scenario
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Annual GW Installed
Actual installations 2007: 5,329 MW Projected installations
2008: 7,500 MW*
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
Ann
ual I
nsta
lled
Cap
acity
(GW
)
Annual Installed Capacity vs. Current Installed Capacity
Capacity additions in 20% Scenario
Source*: AWEA, 2008
46 States Would Have Substantial Wind Development by 2030
Need for New Transmission: Existing and New in 2030
Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of the 20%
Wind Scenario
Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of the 20%
Wind Scenario
$0
$500
$1000
$1500
$2000
$2500
$3000
Billio
ns o
f 200
6 D
olla
rs
20% WindNo New Wind
Wind O&M Costs
Transmission CostsWind Capital Costs
Fuel CostsConventional O&M CostsConventional Capital Costs
Economic Costs of 20% Wind Scenario
2% investmentdifference between
20% Wind and No New Wind
Incremental investment cost of 20% Wind Scenario
Electricity Sector Costs
Incremental economic costs reflect:• Capital costs of wind projects relative to other
projects• Incremental transmission investment
No New Wind scenario costs over $2 trillion in new investment in net present value terms by 203020% Wind Scenario requires only 2% more investment ($43 billion in net present value)50 cents per month on average household bill
20% Wind Scenario Impact on Generation Mix in 2030
Reduces electric utility natural gas consumption by 50% Reduces total natural gas consumption by 11%Natural gas consumer benefits: $86-214 billion*
Reduces electric utility coal consumption by 18% Avoids construction of 80 GW of new coal power plants
U.S. electrical energy mix
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
No New Wind 20% Wind
Natural GasCoalNuclear
HydroWind
Source *: Hand et al., 2008
20% Wind Cost Increment Compared to Savings from Reduced Natural Gas Price Pressure
The benefits from reduced pressure on natural gas prices across all gas users would be $150 billion (NPV), by itself exceeding the incremental cost of investing in the 20% Scenario.
*NPV
Source: Hand et al., 2008
Billi
ons
of D
olla
rs*
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
IncrementalCost
Natural Gas Savings
Most area available
for farming or grazing
Total area required:
15 million acres
Anchorage, AKAnchorage, AK1,961 mi1,961 mi22
Actual footprint only 2-5% of area,
~ 618,000 acres: slightly less than area
of Rhode Island or half the size of
Anchorage, Alaska
Total Area Required for 20% Scenario
02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050
CO
2Em
issi
ons
in th
e E
lect
ric S
ecto
r(m
illio
n m
etric
tons
)CO2 Emissions from the Electricity Sector
Annual CO2 Emissions Reductions
CO2 emissions reductions by 2030= ~825 million metric tons annually
Could avoid ~$98 billion*
CO2 regulation cost
Source *: Hand et al., 2008
Ann
ual R
educ
tion
in C
O2
Emis
sion
s (m
illio
n m
etric
tons
)
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 20262028 20300
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Annual Reductions
Wind Power Avoids Other Negative Impacts
Wind power avoids the negative impacts of generated fossil fuels:• Air emissions of mercury
or other heavy metals • Emissions from
extracting and transporting fuels
• Lake and streambed acidification
• Production of toxic solid wastes, ash, or slurry
Photo courtesy: NREL
Significant Water Use Savings
Cumulatively, the 20% Wind Scenario would avoid the consumption of 4 trillion gallons of water through 2030.
The 20% Wind Scenario cuts electric sector water consumption by 17% in 2030.
Manufacturing Jobs Supported by State
Jobs (in person-years)
Manufacturing location information from REPP Report by Sterzinger & Svrcek (2004)> 30,000
1,000 - 5,000
5,000 - 10,000
10,000 - 20,000
20,000 - 30,000
300 - 1,000
Major component assumptions: 50% of blades are manufactured in U.S. in 2007 increasing to 80% by 2030, 26% of towers are from the U.S. in 2007 increasing to 50% by 2030 and 20% of turbines are made in the U.S. increasing to 42% by 2030.
Jobs Supported by 20% Scenario
Over 500,000 jobs supported by wind in 20% Scenario
Approx. 180,000 supported by wind in 20% Scenario
Challenges to Achieving the 20%
Wind Scenario
Challenges to Achieving the 20%
Wind Scenario
Transmission
Enhancement of electrical transmission system required in all electricity-growth scenariosTransmission is needed to:• Relieve congestion in existing system• Improve system reliability for all
customers• Increase access to lower-cost energy• Access new and remote generation
resources Wind requires more transmission than some other options as best winds are often in remote locations
Photo courtesy: NREL
Continued Evolution of Commercial Wind Technology is Needed
Examples of Technology Improvements in Support of 20% Scenario
Increase capacity factors• Pursue larger rotors and taller towers• Continue improvements to blades, rotors, drive-train
components and controls • Enhance reliability of major components
Reduce capital costs• Reduce aerodynamic and mechanical loads through
advanced blade and rotor concepts• Reduce turbine weight through judicious use of newer, high-
strength maters• Improve component manufacturability and manufacturing
processesMitigate risks• Evaluate performance to enable early identification of issues• Track O&M needs to enhance experience base for turbines
and components • Conduct testing and certification activities
Project Siting
Project siting often raises local concerns about:• Visual impacts• Property value impacts• Impacts on local wildlife/habitats• Turbine or rotor noise• Land use
Wind generation is responsible for 0.003% of human-caused avian mortality (National Research Council, 2007)
Bat mortality has been higher than expectedNo site or cumulative impacts on bird or bat populations have been demonstrated, to date
Photo courtesy: US Fish and Wildlife
Siting Processes
SummarySummary
20% Wind Scenario
Explores one scenario for reaching 20% wind energy by 2030 and contrasts it to a scenario in which no new U.S. wind power capacity is installedIs not a prediction, but an analysis based on one scenarioCritically examines wind’s roles in energy security, economic prosperity and environmental sustainabilityWould require about 300 GW (300,000 MW) of wind generationShows that affordable, accessible wind resources available across the nation
Incremental direct cost to society$43 billion
50 cents/month/household
Reduction in emissions of greenhouse gasses and avoided carbon regulation costs
825 million tons of CO2
$50 to $145 billion
Reduction in water consumption8% through 2030
17% in 2030
Jobs supported and other economic benefits
500,000 total with 150,000 direct jobs
$2 billion in local annual revenues
Reduction in nationwide natural gas use and likely savings for all gas consumers
11%$86-214 billion
Summary: Costs & Benefits
Sources: DOE, 2008 and Hand et al., 2008 Note: All dollar values are in NPV
References
U.S. Department of Energy. 2008. 20% Wind Energy by 2030. DOE/GO-102008-2567. Washington, DC. AWEA. 2008. Wind Power Outlook 2008. Washington, DC.Black & Veatch. 2007. 20% Wind Energy Penetration in the United States: A Technical Analysis of the Energy Resource.Walnut Creek, CAHand et al. 2008. Power System Modeling of 20% Wind-Generated Electricity by 2030. National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Conference Paper NREL/CP-500-42794. Golden, CO. National Research Council. 2007. Environmental Impacts of Wind-Energy Projects. Washington DC: National Academies Press.Wiser, R. and M. Bolinger. 2007. Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installations, Cost, and Performance Trends: 2006.DOE/GO-102007-2433. Golden, CO: NREL.
