2002 Regional Growth Forecast 2000 2030

7/29/2019 2002 Regional Growth Forecast 2000 2030

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26 Castilian Drive

P.O. Box 8208

Goleta, CA 93118-8208

Phone: 805-961-8900

Fax: 805-961-8901

www.sbcag.org

RegionalGrowth Forecast2000-2030

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Santa Barbara County 70555 98220 173600 264324 298694 369608 399347 461900 504400 521000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

POPULATION

HOUSING

EMPLOYMENT


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2002 MEMBERSHIP ROSTER

SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS

SUPERVISORS Member Supervisorial District

NAOMI SCHWARTZ FIRST DISTRICT

SUSAN ROSE SECOND DISTRICT

GAIL MARSHALL THIRD DISTRICT(Chair)JONI GRAY FOURTH DISTRICT

TOM URBANSKE FIFTH DISTRICT

CITIES Member Alternate

BUELLTON RUSS HICKS DIANE WHITEHAIRCouncilman Mayor Pro Tem

CARPINTERIA RICHARD WEINBERG DONNA JORDANCouncilman Councilwoman

GUADALUPE KENNETH WESTALL SAM ARCACouncilman Mayor

LOMPOC DICK DEWEES JANICE KELLERCouncilman Councilman

SANTA BARBARA GREGG HART DAN SECORDCouncilman Councilman

SANTA MARIA LAURENCE LAVAGNINO BOB ORACH(Vice-Chair) CouncilmanCouncilman

SOLVANG ED ANDRISEK KEN PALMERMayor Mayor Pro Tem


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TECHNICAL PLANNING ADVISORY COMMITTEE

2002 MEMBERSHIP ROSTER

JURISDICTION MEMBER ALTERNATE

BUELLTON RAY SEVERN LINDA REIDDirector Planning TechnicianPlanning Department

CARPINTERIA PAUL KERMOYAN DAVE DURFLINGERDirector City ManagerCommunity Development

GOLETA EDWARD WOHLENBERGInterim City Manager

GUADALUPE SAM ANGULO JEREMY KROUT0 Director Planner

Public Works Department Planning Department

LOMPOC ARLEEN T. PELSTER PEGGY WOODSDirector Associate PlannerCommunity Development

SANTA BARBARA LIZ LIMON (Chair) JOHN LEDBETTERSenior Planner II Principal PlannerCommunity Development Community Development

Department Department

SANTA MARIA JIM STERN BILL SHIPSEY (Vice-Chair)Assistant Director Planner IICommunity Development

Department

SOLVANG GEORGE HANSEN JEFF EDWARDSDirector Deputy City Engineer

Planning Department

COUNTY OF SANTA BARBARA

JOHN CUYKENDALL DEV VRATPlanner Supervising PlannerComprehensive Planning Comprehensive Planning


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2002 TPAC Membership Roster

SPECIAL DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVES

MEMBER ALTERNATE

AIR POLLUTION CONTROL DISTRICT

RON TAN BOBBIE BRATZAir Quality Specialist, Air Quality Specialist,Supervisory Supervisory

SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS

MICHAEL G. POWERSDeputy Director, Planning


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PROJECT STAFF

Bill DerrickExecutive DirectorMichael G. Powers.Deputy Director, Planning

Brian Bresolin..Regional Analyst, Author

March 2002

The preparation of this report was financed in part by the Federal HighwayAdministration and Federal Transit Administration planning funds.


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I

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PageTABLE OF CONTENTS ILIST OF TABLES IIILIST OF FIGURES V

DIAGRAM IXLIST OF MAPS IX

GROWTH FORECAST SUMMARY 1-11

CHAPTER I OVERVIEWIntroduction 1Purpose of Growth Forecast 1Resource Constraints 1Structure of Forecast Model 2Geography 5

CHAPTER II POPULATION FORECASTIntroduction 7Births and Mortality 7State and County Birth Trends 7Historical Trends 11Birth and School Enrollment 14Births by Ethnicity 16Birth Rates by Jurisdiction 17Mortality Rates 18Forecast Births and Mortality 21Migration 25Age Structure 28

Components of the Population Forecast 33Total Population Forecast 33Group Quarters Forecast 42Household Population Forecast 43

CHAPTER III EMPLOYMENT FORECASTIntroduction 45Overview of Employment 45Forecast of Countywide Employment Growth 46Employment by Economic Sector 48Allocation of Existing and Forecast Employment to Subregions 53


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II

CHAPTER IV CONSTRAINTSIntroduction 64Development Potential 64Rate of Residential Construction 69Non-Residential (Employment based) Land Use Consumption 74Household Size Density 80

Household Size Trends 82Forecasting Change in Household Size 83Workers Per Household 93

CHAPTER V JOBS HOUSING RELATIONSHIPIntroduction 96Existing Jobs Housing Relationship 97Future Jobs Housing Relationship 100

CHAPTER VI FORECAST COMPARISONSAND GROWTH POLICYIntroduction 103State Population Projections 103

DOF Methodology Overview 105City Population Forecasts by SBCAG 106Current City Population Estimates by DOF 108County Planning 2030 Projections 108Household Size 109Births Deaths and Migration 109Regional Growth Policy 110

APPENDIX I FORECAST OVERVIEW FOR THE NEWLYINCORPORATED CITY OF GOLETA 112

APPENDIX II PUBLIC AND TECHNICAL REVIEW PROCESS 116

APPENDIX III REFERENCES 117


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III

LIST OF TABLESPage

TABLE

2-1 Births by Zip Code Areas 112-2 School Enrollment Grades K-12, 1989-1999 and 2000 14

2-3 Age Specific Birth Rates 172-4 1996 Mortality By Zip Code 192-5 Births and Mortality For Cities, 2000-2030 222-6 Births and Mortality For Unincorporated Areas,

2000-2030 232-7 Total Population Forecast, Subregions, Cities, and

Unincorporated Areas, 2000-2030 342-8 Numerical Change for Forecast Periods, Subregions,

Cities, Unincorporated Areas, 2000-2030 352-9 Percent Change, 2000-2030, Subregions, Cities and

Unincorporated Areas 362-10 Historical and Forecast Total Population Change, For Cities

And Unincorporated Areas, 1980-2030 412-11 Group Quarters, 2000-2030 422-12 Household Population Forecast, 2000-2030 432-13 Change in Household Population, 2000-2030 443-1 Self Employed Workers, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000

(Estimated) 463-2 Countywide Economic Growth by Sector, 2000-2030 523-3 Subregion Employment, 2000-2030 563-4 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector,

2000 and 2005 573-5 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector,

2010 and 2015 58

3-6 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector,2020 and 2025 59

3-7 County Jobs by Subregion and Employment Sector,2030 60

3-8 Job Distribution by Sector, South Coast and Santa Ynez,2000-2030 61

3-9 Job Distribution by Sector, Lompoc and Santa Maria,2000-2030 62

3-10 Countywide Job Distribution 2000-2030 634-1 Theoretical Potential Additional Residential Units at Buildout 654-2 Potential For Future Industrial, Commercial, and Retail Dev. 674-3 Assumed Maximum Five Year Increment, Housing

Construction Ceiling, 2000-2030 704-5 Potential Residential Units, 2000-2030 714-6 Summary of Remaining Housing Unit Capacity After the

2030 Forecast Period 724-7 Percentage of Total Employment Forecast That Requires

New Land 744-8 Existing and Forecast Employment Densities 794-9 Census 2000 Household Size Estimates 804-10 Influence of Household Size on Population Growth 81


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IV

4-11 Percent Spanish Origin in Cities, Places, 1990 and 2000 854-12 Department of Finance Housing Unit Composition for 2000 874-13 Household Size Matrix 904-14 Household Size Forecast 914-15 Household Forecast 924-16 Workers Per Household, 2000-2030 93

4-17 Increase In Workers, 2000-2030 944-18 Increase In Workers, Five Year Periods, 2000-2030 956-1 Population Growth, Department of Finance

And RGF 2000 Comparison 1056-2 Department of Finance Numerical/Percent Population Change

for Tri-Counties and State of California 1066-3 Comparison of Previous Forecasts with 1990 and 2000

Census Data 1086-4 RGF 94 and Department of Finance Household Size

Comparison for 2000 1106-5 Annual Demographic Changes RGF 2000 and Department

Of Finance 110

LIST OF FIGURES

FIGURE 1-1 Elements of the Forecast Model 41-2 Santa Barbara County, Subregions 62-1 Births for Santa Barbara County, and the State of California 82-2 Distribution of Births by Subregion, 1999 92-3 1999 Births for Cities and Unincorporated Total 102-4 Age of Mothers Giving Birth 1970-1995 122-5 Births to Teenage Mothers in 1999, For Cities and Total

Unincorporated 132-6 Births by Mothers of Hispanic Origin, Santa Barbara County

1982-1996 162-7 Mortality for Santa Barbara County, and State of California,

1970-1996 182-8 Mortality and Race/Ethnicity, Santa Barbara County, 1995 202-9 Department of Finance, Statewide Births 1970-2005 212-10 Countywide Births and Mortality from 2000-2030 242-11 DOF Components of Population Growth,

For Santa Barbara County, Births, Deaths and Migration 262-12 RGF Components of Population Growth,

For Santa Barbara County, Births, Deaths, Migration 272-13 Santa Barbara County Age distribution, 2000 282-14 Santa Barbara County Age Distribution, 2030 29

2-15 Santa Barbara County Age Distribution, 2000-2030 302-16 Santa Barbara Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 312-17 Carpinteria Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 312-18 Santa Maria Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 322-19 Lompoc Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 322-20 Santa Ynez Subregion Age Distribution, 2000-2030 33


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V

2-21 Population Growth for Subregions, Cities,and Unincorporated Areas 37

2-22 Total Population Distribution, Subregions 382-23 Countywide Population Growth, 1940-2030 382-24 Large City Population Growth, 1940-2030 392-25 Small City Population Growth, 1950-2030 40

3-1 Countywide Wage and Salary Employment 1972-2030 473-2 Santa Barbara County, Non-farm Private Employment,

1970-1995 493-3 Santa Barbara County, Government Employment,

1970-1995 493-4 Employment By Sector, 1983, 1999 and 2030 50,514-1 Distribution of Housing Unit Theoretical Buildout Capacity,

By Subregions, (33,000 Residential Units) 664-2 Distribution of Non-Residential Theoretical Buildout Capacity,

by Subregion (32 million square feet) 684-3 Countywide Theoretical Housing Unit Constraints 69

4-4 Housing Units Developed From 2000-2030, vs. Buildoutby Subregion 73

4-5 Employment Based Lane Use Requirements 2000-2030,South Coast 75

4-6 Employment Based Land Use Requirements, 2000-2030,Santa Maria and Lompoc Valley 76

4-7 Employment Based Lane Use Requirements 2000-2030,Santa Ynez Valley 77

4-8 Employment Based Lane Use Requirements 2000-2030,by Subregion 78

4-9 Forecast Use vs. Buildout of Available Land,For Commercial, Industrial, and Retail, by Subregion

2000-2030 794-10 Historic 1960-1990 and Forecast 1990-2015 Household Sizes 824-11 Overcrowded Units For Santa Barbara County Jurisdictions

In 1990 834-12 Household Size for Hispanic, and Total Population in

1990 844-13 Santa Barbara County Births of Hispanic Origin, 1982-1996 854-14 Housing Type Composition, 1990 864-15 Components of Family Households, In Santa Barbara

County, 1990 884-16 Components of Non-Family Households,

In Santa Barbara County, 1990 89

5-1 Inter-County Workers, 1990 Census 975-2 Workers, Jobs, and Housing in 2000, by Subregion 985-3 Workers, Jobs, and Housing in 2030, by Subregion 995-4 Workers, Jobs and Housing growth 2000-2030, By Subregion 1005-5 Workers, Jobs, and Housing, Existing, 2000-2030,

And Buildout Combined, by Subregion 1015-4 Worker Job and Housing Growth, Countywide, 20002030 102


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VI

6-1 RGF and Department of Finance 2040 Population 1046-2 Year 2000 Forecast Comparison, From RGF 1985,

1989, 1994 and 2000 Census 1066-3 Census 2000, RGF 2030 and

Department of Finance 2040 Age Distributions 108

LIST OF DIAGRAMS

2-1 Components of the Cohort Survival Model 20

LIST OF MAPS

2-1 Santa Barbara County Subregions 82-1 Santa Barbara County School Districts 15


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1 Forecast 2000-Summary

Forecast Structure

Santa Barbara County Association of Governments

The purpose of the forecast is to

provide a set of consistent,

countywide forecasts to the year

2030 for use in long range

comprehensive planning. The

forecast will serve as input

towards development of:

Traffic forecasts

Air quality plans

Regional housing needsestimates

Growth policy

A long range forecast is arequirement of the Federal Highway

Administration for long range

transportation planning.

Forecast ofPopulationEmployment

Land Use2000-2030

Regional Growth Forecast 2000

(RGF 2000) presents forecasts

between 2000 and 2030 for

Santa Barbara County its major

economic and demographic

re g io n s a n d i t s e ig h t

incorporated cities. The

population forecast is prepared

for all the incorporated cities

and the unincorporated areas

surrounding them such as

Santa Maria City and the Orcutt

Valley. A population forecast

for the City of Goleta is also in-

cluded. The employment

forecast is prepared for larger

regions which include both the

cities and unincorporated areas

together.


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A forecast is a complex

process. To simplify the process

it is divided into three distinct

sections.

The population forecast startswith the 2000 Census toestimate population by agegroup. Birth rates are appliedto women of childbearing age toestimate new births while deathrates by age group result inpopulation reduction. Duringeach five year period womengive birth and people die and

the population as a whole agesover time so a person born inthe year 2000 will be 30 yearsof age in 2030.

The employment forecastextends a countywide historicaltrend of wage and salary jobs.New jobs are distributed tosubregions in future forecastperiods using existing known

proportions. The forecast is bymajor job classifications such asconstruction and services.

The constraints section limitsthe potential rate and availabilityof new housing by assessingthe potential number of newunits based on local land useplans. The constraints categoryalso converts population growth

from the population forecast intohousing demand by assuming apersons per household densityfactor. These factors changeover time accounting forincreased density. Theconstraints category limits thepopulation forecast through theavailability of housing.


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Population Forecast

Population over the 2000-2030 period is forecast to increase by 121,000 persons or 30% countywide.

The South Coast is forecast to experience an increase in population of 39,500 or 20%. The North

County is forecast to experience an increase of 82,000 persons or 41%. The Unincorporated areas

of Orcutt and the Goleta valley

(including the new City of Goleta) are

forecast to increase 65% and 25%

respectively. The City of Goleta popu-

lation forecast is also addressed in the

appendix. Population in the north

county is forecast to surpass the South

Coast by 2005.Lompoc Valley

14%

South Coast47%

Santa Ynez

Valley

5%

Santa Maria/Cuyama Valley

34%

Jurisdiction 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

South Coast Subregion 201,000 208,900 216,800 224,900 232,100 236,300 240,500

City of Carpinteria 14,200 14,800 15,000 15,300 15,500 15,800 16,000

City of Santa Barbara 89,600 90,500 92,700 94,900 97,200 99,400 101,700

City of Goleta 27,500 29,900 32,300 33,000 33,400 33,900 34,300Carp - Uninc. 4,900 5,200 5,600 5,900 6,200 6,600 6,900

SB - Uninc. 64,900 68,500 71,200 75,800 79,700 80,500 81,400

Lompoc Subregion 58,300 65,500 68,600 71,100 72,300 73,700 75,100

City of Lompoc 41,100 43,500 44,900 46,100 47,200 48,500 49,900

Lompoc - Uninc. 17,200 22,000 23,800 25,000 25,100 25,200 25,300

Santa Maria Subregion 116,800 134,200 148,400 162,800 171,600 174,100 176,200

City of Santa Maria 77,400 87,900 96,800 105,900 110,800 112,700 113,700

City of Guadalupe 5,700 5,900 6,000 6,200 6,400 6,500 6,700

SM - Uninc. 33,300 39,500 44,700 50,200 53,600 54,200 54,900

Guad. - Uninc. 400 700 700 800 800 800 900

Santa Ynez Subregion 21,800 25,300 27,100 27,200 27,200 27,300 27,400

City of Solvang 5,300 5,900 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300 6,300

SY - Uninc. 12,700 14,000 15,000 15,100 15,100 15,100 15,200

City of Buellton 3,800 5,400 5,800 5,800 5,800 5,900 5,900

Cuyama Subregion 1,400 1,300 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,500 1,600

County Total 399,000 436,000 462,000 488,000 505,000 513,000 521,000

Total Unincorporated 162,000 181,000 195,000 207,000 215,000 218,000 221,000

Total City 237,000 255,000 268,000 281,000 289,000 295,000 300,000

2030 Population Distribution521,000 Total


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South Coas t c i t ies o f

Carpinteria, Santa Barbara andGoleta are forecast to increasein population over the 2000-2030 period by 13, 15 and 24percent respectively. NorthCounty city growth is greater asillustrated below:

Santa Maria 47%Buellton 55%Guadalupe 17%Lompoc 21%

Solvang 22%

Since 1940, the 1950-1960 period was the decade of the greatest population increase, a substantial 77%increase in population. The increase for 1990-2000 was substantially less at 8% for the ten year period.The growth rate is forecast to fall further still, approaching just 3% between 2020-2030.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Population

Santa Maria Lompoc Santa Barbara Goleta

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Population

Carpinteria Solvang Buellton Guadalupe

Population Forecast

Historical andForecast Growth

Rates

1940-1950 39%1950-1960 77%1960-1970 52%1970-1980 13%1980-1990 24%1990-2000 8%2000-2010 15%2010-2020 9%2020-2030 3%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

Santa Barbara County 70500 98000 174000 264000 299000 370000 399000 462000 505000 521000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030


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Population Forecast

The map below shows the year 2000 population proportions (in the black pie section) as well as thepopulation change from 2000-2030 (shown in the white pie section) for cities and unincorporated areas.The 2030 total population number is also provided adjacent to each pie figure. The newly incorporatedCity of Goleta population forecast is discussed in Appendix l.

City of Guadalupe

6,700 Total

City of Santa Maria

113,700 Total

UnincorporatedSanta Maria Valley/Orcutt

56,000 Total

UnincorporatedLompoc Valley

25,300 Total

City of Lompoc

49,900 Total

City of Buellton5,900 Total

City of Solvang

6,300Total

UnincorporatedSanta Ynez Valley

15,200 Total

UnincorporatedCuyama Valley

1,600 Total

Unincorporated South Coast 88,300

City of Goleta 34,300

City of Santa B arbara101,700 Total

City of Carpinteria

16,000 Total

Population in 2000--black sectionPopulation change--2000-2030--white sectionSize of pie reflects proportion of countywidepopulation in 2030


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0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

Year

Employment

2000-2009

UCSB Economic Forecast

Data1972-1999

Historical Wage and Salary Employment

2010-2030

SBCAG Forecast Employment

Employment ForecastHistoric employment data from the State Employment Development Department from 1972-1999 andthe short term 2000-2009 forecast provided by the local UCSB Economic Outlook provides the basisfor the 2010-2030 forecast employment trend.

Year Employment Percent Change

2000 178,000

2005 193,000 2000-2005.8.4%

2010 205,000 2005-2010.6.2%

2015 218,000 2010-2015.6.3%

2020 231,000 2015-2020.6.0%

2025 244,000 2020-2025.5.6%

2030 257,000 2025-2030.5.3%

2000-2030 79,000 ..44.0%

In North County, Vandenberg AFB will continue in its importance as new commercial space ventures areimplemented in the early part of the forecast. The Santa Maria region will retain its importance as aregional retail-service center and increase its share of total county employment.

Lompoc economic development efforts resulted in several major retail centers opening attractingLompoc Valley residents who previously shopped out of the city and also attract customers from theSanta Ynez Valley increasing sales tax revenue. However, Lompoc is assumed to have only limitedsuccess in attracting new industry to its Central Avenue Industrial Park. Lompoc will likely serve as asource of affordable housing for those who work in the South Coast and Santa Ynez Valley, at the sametime stimulating the local retail and service economy with these long distance commuters.

An estimated 2 million visitors visit Solvang annually and with additional tourist serving facilities more

tourists can be accommodated. The city's general plan recognizes potential for additional growth in thetourism industry and allocates ample space to accommodate new growth. The City of Buellton is alsopoised for additional commercial and retail growth. The county had not issued any new permits inBuellton for several years so there exists some latent demand. The Chumash Casino expansion willlikely draw additional day trippers to the Valley.

Limited vacant land, and Measure E restrictions will limit the potential for nonresidential development inthe Santa Barbara city limits (which includes the Municipal Airport). However, employee densities indowntown Santa Barbara will likely increase due to high rents and maximization of available space. TheGoleta area will also experience some growth limits due to the Goleta Growth Management Ordinance

State and national economicinfluences on the county will likelyresult in a slower short and longterm employment growth rate.Slower employment growth isforecast over the long term.


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Employment Forecast

The countywide employment forecast isallocated to subregions using current zip codelevel employment estimates from theDepartment of Commerce. This allocation ismodified over time based on anticipated majoradditions or reductions in employment such asa potential expansion of prison facility inLompoc City or reduction in launches ofsatellites from Vandenberg AFB.

Employment by SIC in 1999

178,000 Total

Manufacturing

10%

Transportation &

Public Utilities

3%

Wholesale

Trade

3%

Retail Trade

19%

Services

28%

Government

19% Construction

4%

Finance,

Insurance &Real Estate

4%

Mining

1%

Agriculture

9%

Employment by SIC in 2030

257,000 Total

Manufacturing11%

Retail Trade

17%

Services

30%

Government

16%

Finance,

Insurance &

Real Estate

3%

Wholesale

Trade

4%

Transportation &

Public Utilities

2%

Construction

9%

Mining

0%

Agriculture

8%

The employment forecast also includes major jobcategories (Standard Industrial Classification Codes (SIC))

which change over time based on trends and anticipatedchanges in the economy. The service sector increases inshare of employment over time, amounting to 30% of allregional jobs by 2030.

Employment by economic sector describes the types ofjobs for each county subarea. Agriculture is a major em-ployer in the Santa Maria and Santa Ynez Valley reflectingthe growing importance of the wine industry. Mining isbecoming less significant countywide as oil and gasdevelopment and production decrease. Manufacturinghas slowly been recovering from the recession in the early

1990s and is predominantly in the South Coast andLompoc region. Wholesale and retail trade is alsopredominant on the South Coast with the recent additionof several big box outlets. Services which includesemployment in tourism is the largest sector in the SouthCoast.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Subarea

Employment

South Coast Santa Ynez Lompoc Santa Maria


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Employment Forecast

The map below shows the 2000 forecast employment proportions (in the black pie section) as well as theemployment change from 2000-2030 (shown in the white pie section). The pie size shows the countywideproportion of employment in each subregion for 2030.


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L imi ta t ions on landavailability can effect newresidential and employmentd e v e l o p m e n t . T h e s elimitations are used in theforecast model to simulatethe effects of local

jurisdictions general planson population growth. Theland use data consists ofresidential land which hasnot yet been developed andas such, is available for new

development.

Discussions among techni-cal staff during the prepara-tion of this forecast illus-trates the difficulty of quanti-fying total buildout. Theseestimates are subject tochange and are not preciseestimates. Buildout consistsof new units on currently va-

cant land that has residentialpotential, and, reuse or re-development of existing landat higher densities.

Maximum

AdditionalResidential

Subregion Units

South Coast Subregion 10,070

City of Carpinteria 670

City of Santa Barbara 3,200

Carp. Unincorp. Area 800

SB Unincorp. Area 5,400

Lompoc Subregion 3,790

City of Lompoc 2,200

Lompoc Unincorp. Area 1,590

Santa Maria Subregion 15,070

City of Santa Maria 7,770

City of Guadalupe 550

SM. Unincorp. Area 6,500

Guad. Unincorp. Area 250

Santa Ynez Subregion 1,940

City of Solvang 450

SY Unincorp. Area 790

City of Buellton 700

Cuyama Subregion 1,900

County Total 33,000

Maximum residential unit estimatesare constrained in each five yearperiod by a construction rate ceilingthat does not allow additional newhousing beyond the average of unitspermitted between 1990 and 2000.This rate gives a more realisticsimulation of the potential forresidential unit growth, reflectinghistoric permitting activity, localpolicies, interest rates, and marketdemand. Over 33,000 units areinitially available; however, the

assumed construction rate limits thetotal to 29,600 units over the fore-cast period.

Land Use Forecast

Residential ConstructionCeiling

49,000 Units

Maximum Residential UnitsCapacity

33,000 Units

Total Available2000-2030 Period

28,500 Units

The forecast of new residential unitscompared to the buildout estimates

derived from the local land use plansfor each subregion shows that thereis not much potential for additionalunits at the end of the forecast pe-riod. Several individual jurisdictionsnot shown in the figure such as thecities of Santa Maria and Buelltonreach buildout over the 30 yearforecast period as do most unincor-porated areas.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

S. Coast S. Ynez Santa Maria Lompoc

Housin

gUnits

Buildout Developed


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Land Use Forecast

The forecast of commercial, industrial,

and retail employment compared tothe ultimate theoretical buildoutreveals that the South Coast andLompoc Subregions may havedeficiencies in available space towardthe end of the forecast period resultingin higher employment densities,increasing land costs and potentialreduction in future job growth. In theCity of Santa Barbara Measure E ex-pires in 2010 and presumably addi-tional space may become available. It

is assumed that employment densitieswill increase in deficient areas andadditional capacity can be generatedthrough redevelopment. For example,in the Santa Barbara airport businesspark and the lower State Street areahigh land costs, increased demand,and appropriate zoning has made itfeasible to build higher densityprojects. With a 20% increase inexisting densities for the SantaBarbara Subregion an additional

26,000 jobs can potentially beaccommodated.

Additional employees will require morehousing. In general, household size,which is the number of persons livingin a housing unit, is expected to in-crease, reflecting higher housing costsand demographic changes in ethnicity

for example. More workers may livetogether to afford the cost of housing.Because there are more workers in ahousing unit, population may increasewithout an increase in the overall num-ber of housing units.

SubregionExisting

Jobs

Developed

Land inAcres

EmployeesPer Acre

South Coast 121,800 2,240 54.0

Santa Ynez 10,700 580 18.0

Lompoc 21,900 560 39.0

Santa Maria 46,100 4,820 9.6

Total County 200,500 8,190 24.5

Forecast Compared toAvailable Space

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

South

Coast

Santa

Ynez

Lompoc Santa

Maria

SquareFeet

Forecast Available


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Births and Mortality

The birth and mortality evaluation in the RGF shows the following:

The highest proportion of births is in north county and the proportionis increasing.

Santa Maria City has the largest percentage of countywide births.

Births to women of Hispanic Origin are increasing.

Women over 30 years old are giving birth in increasing numbers.

Overall mortality rates are in decline.

Infant mortality rates are in a decline.

Births rates have leveled off but are forecast to increase slightlyover the forecast period.

Mortality rates are forecast to continue to decline over the forecastperiod.

Countywide birth and mortality rates are remarkably similar to staterates.

Carp. 4%

Santa Barbara 23%

Lompoc 13%

Santa Maria 28%

Guad. 2%

Solv. 2%Buell. 1%

Uninc. 28%

The City of Santa Maria has the highest proportion of countywide births at 28% but it represents only 16%of the countywide population. The City of Santa Barbara has 23% of the births and 23% of the population.The unincorporated area as a whole has 28% of births and 42% of the population.

Percentage of Countywide Births in1996, 6,000 Total


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Births and Mortality

Ethnic change will be an important element of ourdemographic future. Births by mothers of HispanicOrigin have dramatically increased from 32 to 55%of total births between 1982-1996. The influenceof Hispanic births can be seen in thecorresponding increase in the number andproportion of Hispanic students enrolled in thevarious school districts which increased from 30 to40% from 1985 1997.

Births eventually lead to enrollment of young children in school. By tracking births one can anticipatefuture enrollment in local schools. This helps provide information for developing additional educationalfacilities and infrastructure. From 1989 to 1999 there has been an enrollment increase of 26%, or 13,700students in K-12 public schools. Enrollment increase varies throughout the county but north countyschools experienced the greatest numerical growth (8,200 students) compared to south county with 5,500more students over the 1989-1999 period. The school district with the largest numerical increase is SantaMaria-Bonita with 2,700 new students. Recently however some school districts within the south coasthave seen a decline in enrollment which some attribute to the inability of some families to afford the highcost of housing.

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2005

2000-

2010

2005-

2015

2010-

2020

2015-

2025

2020-

2030

2025-

Mortality Births

Time Period Births Mortality Net change2000-2005 34,000 13,000 21,0002005-2010 39,000 17,000 22,0002010-2015 42,000 19,000 23,0002015-2020 43,000 20,000 23,0002020-2025 44,000 22,000 22,0002025-2030 44,000 24,000 20,000


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Migration

Migration is another component of population growth. It is considered a longdistance move which completely changes a persons activity network. Shortermoves between cities in close proximity are considered residential mobility notmigration. Migration is a difficult component to forecast because it varies sodramatically depending on employment opportunities, housing costs andavailability etc. In addition, migration data is limited and often does not capture theentire migrant population. The RGF model assumes that because of limited housingand an estimated persons per household density there is a net positive in-migration of

approximately 2,000 persons annually until 2005 and 1,000 persons until 2010. From2010 to 2015 there is no net migration. After 2015 there is a net out-migration patterncontinuing through 2030. The forecast beyond 2015 indicates there is not enoughhousing to accommodate the existing population, the natural increase (due to birthsminus deaths) and new in-migrants combined.

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

Year

NumberofPersons

Births Deaths Net Migration


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Age

The age distribution ofthe population is getting

older following similarnational trends of theaging of the babyboomer population(those born between1947 and 1964).

Countywide theproportion of thoseaged 60+ increasesfrom 17% in 2000 to25% in 2030.

Those aged 20-44d e c r e a s e i nproportion from 36%in 2000 to 30% in2030.

Those aged 45-58d e c r e a s e i nproportion from 19%in 2000 to 14% in2030.

The change in agedistribution can haveimplications such as ahigher demand forhealth care services forthe growing proportionof those aged 60 andover, and for the laborforce with the decline ofthose aged 20-58 whichmake up the majority of

the working population.

Census 2000 Countywide

Age Distribution

399,347 Total Population

Age 0-19

28%

Age 60+

17%

Age 45-59

19%

Age 20-4436%

Year 2030 Countywide

Age Distribution

521,000 Total Population

Age 20-4430%

Age 45-59

14%

Age 60+

25%Age 0-19

31%


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Forecast Comparisons

The Department of Finance (DOF) population projections from 2000-2040 show some dramatic growth.Population projections are prepared by the DOF under mandate of Government Code, Sections 13073 and13073.5. In addition, the State Administrative Manual sets the general policy of using the same populationprojections and demographic data provided by the States Demographic Research Unit for state planning.

Therefore, it is important to evaluate these projections in the context of SBCAGs own RGF for consistencyof assumptions and results.

The DOF 2020 population forecast is 552,600 compared to the RGF forecast of 504,000.

From 2000-2030 the DOF projection shows an increase of 246,000 persons or 60 percent, while theRGF 2000 forecast increases by 119,000 persons, or 30 percent.

The DOF projection to 2040 shows an increase of 274,000 persons for a county total of 779,000,almost doubling the current 2000 countywide population of 399,000.

Year Santa Barbara Ventura San Luis Obispo California

2000-2010 13.5% 13.0% 27.0% 14.0%

2010-2020 18.0% 15.0% 20.0% 13.7%

2020-2030 18.9% 14.8% 18.0% 14.0%

2030-2040 18.3% 13.0% 16.0% 13.0%

2000-2040 89.0% 69.0% 110.0% 69.0%

Department of Finance Percentage Population Change forTri-Counties and California

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1940

1947

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Po

pulation

Population Rgf 94 RGF 89 RGF 85 RGF 2000

Department of Finance

Projection

RGF 94

RGF 85

RGF 89

Historical

RGF 2000


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Forecast Comparisons

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 100,0

City of Carpinteria

City of Santa Barbara

Carp-Uninc

SB-Uninc

City of Lompoc

Lompoc-Uninc

City of Santa Maria

City of Guadalupe

SM-Uninc

Guad.-Uninc

City of Solvang

City of Buellton

SY-Uninc

PopulationRFG 85 RGF 89 RGF 94 Census 2000

A comparison of previous Regional Growth Forecasts from1985, 89, and 94 with Census 2000 shows that for manyareas each successive forecast has been revised higher forthe year 2000.

Recently, the Santa Barbara County Planning and Development Department released areport titled Santa Barbara County 2030 Land and Population: The Potential Effects ofPopulation Growth on Urban and Rural Lands, November 2000. Their trend projectshistorical 1990-2000 population growth to the year 2030 which is unconstrained byhousing availability or economic conditions. Their 2030 countywide population of close to576,000 persons is higher than the draft SBCAG 2030 forecast of 521,000 persons by10% or about 55,000 persons.

Because it was recently incorporated the City of Buellton was only included in the Re-gional Growth Forecast 1994.


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Is there a regional growth policy addressing some of the challenges outlined in the growth forecast? Cur-rently, no. What should SBCAGs role be in addressing a topic that is complex and controversial and anarea that is historically the primary responsibility of local jurisdictions? While land use decisions are theprimary responsibility of local cities and the county, many of them have regional consequences. Whilesome of these regional impacts are positive, some can be detrimental to the region. Should SBCAG takea more active role in promoting a dialogue on growth policy to identify and address the regionally signifi-cant issues? Perhaps yes.

The 2030 regionwide forecast prepared by SBCAG identifies challenges facing the region. To address thechallenges discussed throughout this report it is recommended that SBCAG and its member agenciesconsider and adopt regional growth policies. The recommended policies are identified below.

1. The Regional Growth Forecast 2000-2030 should be endorsed and used by SBCAG and localjurisdictions as a baseline forecast, subject to review and revision as necessary.

2. This baseline growth forecast will respect existing general plans to illustrate the implications ofregional growth assumptions on population growth.

3. SBCAG should take a more active role in facilitating discussion of regional growth forecasts, itsissues, and if desired, policies.

4. Local agencies with excess commercial and industrially zoned land should evaluate their GeneralPlans to consider the correspondence of local job development potential with regional and localresource capacity, e.g., water and housing sites, to support job growth.

5. The Cities of Santa Barbara and Carpinteria, UCSB, and the County should continue to addressthe regional implications of additional employment in the South Coast area on the regional housingmarket and cities in the South Coast and north county area. The region needs to examine theimpacts of high housing costs and aging workforce on the ability to sustain employment growth and

accommodate increasing long distance commutes.

6. Due to the long term jobs-housing imbalance local and state jurisdictions in the South Coast shouldconsider concurrent phasing of new commercial, retail, industrial development with residentialdevelopment to be consistent with a balance of jobs and housing.

7. The County should study the implications of winery and greenhouse agricultural development onthe housing needs of cities and unincorporated areas.

8. Local agencies are encouraged to use techniques to improve inter-jurisdictional coordination. Suchtechniques may include, but are not limited to joint city-county planning commission meetings, jointcity-county specific plans, and regular referral of environmental reports and plans to adjoining

agencies.

9. The ability of local government to accommodate forecast growth has recently become moreproblematic due to income shifts between the state, local government, and special districts. Theseincome shifts result in reduced incentives to approve development which does not generate salestax. This may result in increased competition for those uses which generate sales taxes. TheSBCAG Board should consider addressing these growing fiscal inequities on a regional basis andrange from simply monitoring state legislative proposals to mediation of disputes between memberagencies such as jobs housing balance issues.

Regional Growth Policy


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According to forecasts prepared by the State of California and the Southern California Association ofGovernments, significant increases in the population of Hispanics is anticipated. It is likely these

changes will also affect the socioeconomic characteristics of Santa Barbara County.

Birth rates for women under 30 years of age remain constant while those between 30 and 40 willcontinue to rise slightly.

Mortality rates for all age groups will decline slightly. Total deaths, however, generally increase asmore of the population becomes elderly and the population as a whole is larger.

A growing proportion of the population may reside in multifamily units, due to the high cost of housing.

Even with sufficient land for urban use, pressures will always exist for the conversion of certainagricultural parcels to more intensive uses. However, local agency general plans and the Coastal Act

have policies to preserve agriculture as both an important contribution to the economy and to provideregional open space. Because of these policies, this growth forecast presumes no conversion of landswith a general plan designation of agriculture. However, land currently in agriculture, but designatedresidential, is included in the buildout estimate.

In the South Coast region the business community will likely experience increased difficulty inrecruiting workers due to lack of affordable housing in the area.

The cities of Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, and Carpinteria are assumed to be successful inimplementing downtown redevelopment projects. Reuse of existing parcels will play an important rolein satisfying demand for commercial-retail lands in Santa Barbara, Carpinteria and Lompoc

Improvements to access from the beach to downtown Santa Barbara will encourage reuse andintensification of commercial and industrial property between the Freeway and the ocean.

In the Santa Ynez Valley the economy will continue to be largely based on tourism and agriculture,however, the increased cost of housing will result in more workers commuting from Lompoc and SantaMaria.

In the Lompoc region local economic growth will still be largely dependent on activities at VandenbergAFB. Forecast 2000 assumes that future moderate size commercial space/defense programs will bedeveloped at VAFB but the programs will be much smaller than the Space Shuttle program.

Santa Maria City is assumed to be successful in capitalizing on its role as a regional economic center

serving northern Santa Barbara County and southern San Luis Obispo County. However, there will beincreased competition for retail development from San Luis Obispo County and other areas.

Substantial growth is projected for all northern Santa Barbara County resulting in a continued shift inthe population to North County. This will also help sustain Santa Marias role as the largest city in northcounty as a regional shopping center.

Forecast Assumptions


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Forecast 20001

Chapter 1Overview

IntroductionSanta Barbara County, Regional Growth Forecast 2000 presents a forecast of population,employment, and land use to the year 2030 for Santa Barbara County, its major economic and

demographic regions, and its seven incorporated cities. Hereafter it is referred to as the RegionalGrowth Forecast, or the RGF 2000.

Purpose of Growth ForecastThe purpose of the Regional Growth Forecast is to provide a consistent countywide forecast to theyear 2030 for use in long range comprehensive planning. The forecast will serve as input towards thedevelopment of: traffic forecasts, air quality impact analysis, housing demand for Housing Elements ofGeneral Plans, and demand estimates for sewer treatment plants and other facilities. In addition, theforecast assists in making the State Department of Housing and Community Development regionalhousing needs allocations to the subcounty level. The housing needs by income level are required aspart of each jurisdictions housing element of their general plan. Also important is the use of theforecast as a database for social service agencies, marketing studies, and for analysis of growth

related issues. Particular attention should be given to the changing demographics of the county andits effect on public services such as education, childcare, health care, labor force availability, andhousing.

The SBCAG board adopted previous Regional Growth Forecasts in 1985, 1989 and 1994. Theforecast is updated as new data or policy changes occur to ensure it provides the most accurateassessment of future growth. For example, the current RGF 2000 will integrate updated data fromthe recent census as available. Local jurisdictions modify and revise land use plans and growthmanagement policies that also impact long-range forecasts. Periodic review of these land use andpolicy changes is conducted to determine if revisions to the forecast are necessary. A reviewoccurred in 1997 of the previous RGF 1994 focusing on land use revisions by local general planupdates. In addition, the California State Department of Finance provides estimates of currentpopulation in May of each year that helps track the short-term accuracy of the forecast.

Resource ConstraintsA forecast of employment, population, and housing for Santa Barbara County must recognize a seriesof limitations to growth that include land and resource constraints. The lack of available land forresidential, commercial, retail, and industrial uses can act as a constraint to development and growth.The integrity of the local comprehensive land use plans is respected in the growth forecast althoughthey may be subject to change over the forecast period. Later sections discuss how these limitationsare quantified and incorporated into the forecast as constraints to new housing and employment.

Since the last forecast was adopted in 1994, the recent abundance of rainfall, and the access to statewater have reduced the existing and anticipated water supply constraints to urban residentialdevelopment. However, the overall picture is far from clear.

On the South Coast, in 1992, the City of Santa Barbara adopted a Long Term Water Supply Programand EIR that identified adequate supplies to serve residential and commercial buildout under theGeneral Plan. However, concerns exist in regions such as Goleta where users were taking more outof ground water basins than was being naturally recharged. However, with the arrival of State Waterthere is an adequate supply to meet existing and approved development as well as future demand.


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Forecast 20002

The Montecito Water District has secured supplemental water supply via the State Water Project andimplemented long-term water efficiency programs. The nearly 25-year water shortage emergencyand water moratorium and associated restrictions were officially terminated.

Water supply in North County is also limited, although the problems are different. Overdrafting of

groundwater basins occurs in North County where agriculture represents the majority of the demand.Even with the availability of imported State Water, overdrafting is expected to continue. It representsa major policy issue affecting the future economic and environmental health of the County. Becausethe effects of water supply constraints are uncertain, this forecast does not limit maximum potentialdevelopment based on water supply since staff was unable to predict the specific impact of watershortages on new development.

It is both conceptually and technically infeasible to incorporate many variables in a forecast. In thiseffort some are omitted from quantitative examination. One such example is the direct examination ofthe cost of housing versus the ability of new in-migrants and existing resident renters to pay this cost.Other factors such as sphere of influence determinations by LAFCO, local and regional circulation

problems, and deficient public facilities and services can also affect the rate and amount of growth.

These individual factors were not evaluated in the forecast.

The RGF 2000 assumes that no major natural, or man made disasters, e.g., catastrophicearthquakes, will significantly disrupt the area during the forecast period. While our seismic historysuggests that a significant seismic event could occur during the forecast period of 30 years, it isbeyond the ability of the forecaster to foresee the magnitude and impacts of such an event.

Structure of Forecast ModelForecasting population, employment and land use is a complex process. To simplify this process theforecast is disaggregated into three submodels; 1) population, 2) employment, and 3) constraints. Theconstraints model links the population and employment models.

The population model provides population forecasts for Santa Barbara County, each of fivesubregions, and each of the seven cities within the county. Chapter II describes in detail the resultsof the population forecast. The forecast spans the period 2000 to 2030. It uses 1990 census data asa baseline, and is calibrated using 1990 to 2000 population, housing and demographic estimates fromthe Department of Finance and other sources such as the State Department of Health for birth andmortality rates. For each 5 year forecast period and geographic region, the model forecasts male andfemale population by five-year age groups (0-4, 5-9, etc.).

Another variable in the population model is net migration. The model receives input in the form ofmigrants coming Santa Barbara County. In-migrants may arrive in search of a new job, education, orother reasons. Out-migrants leave due to lack of housing or employment. Migrants are either addedor subtracted from the existing population that age over time. The population model also adds new

births and subtracts out deaths to the population by applying age specific birth and mortality rates.Every 5 years the age group is advanced, or aged, so that over time someone born in 2000 will be 30years of age in 2030.


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Forecast 20003

The population model also contains a separate assessment of the "fixed aged" population residing atinstitutions such as the University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB). This institution generallycycles people in-and-out of school on a rotating basis so that the population does not generally age,as does the population that stays in the area for a longer period. The "group quarters" population isalso forecast separately since it contains a special population, e.g., correctional facilities, dormitories,

and group care homes. This group quarters population does not utilize conventional housing units.They are not considered part of the household population that requires a housing unit.

The employment model forecasts the number and type of jobs for each subregion by five-yearincrements (2000, 2005, etc.). Chapter III describes in detail results of the employment model. Thecountywide employment forecast is based on an assessment of economic trends and historicalemployment data. The countywide forecast is then allocated to subregions and economic sectorsbased on zip code level employment data. There is no employment forecast for individual cities andunincorporated areas. Commercial, retail and industrial land availability, as derived from the localcommunity land use plans, is taken into consideration as a potential limiting factor. The forecast alsoestimates the potential increase in the workforce, due to more women entering the labor force etc.

The constraints model limits the potential rate and buildout of residential development and maytherefore limit new housing available for those in-migrants who arrive to take new jobs or personswho are born in the area and wish to stay. Chapter III describes in detail the results of the constraintsmodel. The constraints model places a limit on the rate at which new housing is developed and aceiling on the "ultimate" buildout of each jurisdiction. This ultimate buildout is based on the potentialfor additional housing as allowed by the community land use plans of each jurisdiction. Discussionsbetween technical staff during the preparation of this forecast illustrate the difficulty of quantifying totalbuildout. These estimates are subject to change and are not precise estimates. Buildout consists ofnew units on currently vacant land that has residential potential, and, reuse or redevelopment ofexisting land at higher densities.

As population (from the population model) increases (due to new births minus deaths and net

migration), they are converted into households by assuming a certain number of persons perhousehold. The constraints model limits new housing supply. For areas where the supply falls shortof demand, population is allocated elsewhere to other jurisdictions within Santa Barbara County or toVentura or San Luis Obispo County.

The constraints model links the employment model to the population model by the generation of newworkers who are able to fill the new jobs estimated in the employment model. New workers occurdue to a variety of factors such as more women entering the labor force, new in-migrants, and anatural increase of younger workers while some workers retire and leave the labor force. Theconstraints model balances the available housing units, with the workers (using a workers perhousehold density), and population (using a household size density).

Figure 1-1 describes the characteristics of the population, employment, and constraints models.Each of the factors relies on a considerable amount of data and assumptions to produce a 30-yearforecast. Much of the accompanying texts in the following chapters describe these assumptions aswell as the forecast results.


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Forecast 20004

Figure 1-1

Elements of the Forecast Model

POPULATION

Component Methodology

CONSTRAINTS


EMPLOYMENT


Aging Population for Cities and UnincorporatedAreas.

Group Quarters: Vandenberg AFB, UCSBDorms, U.S. Penn.

Births, Deaths, Net Migration, for each 5year period.

Program changes and constant proportion.

Number of jobs for subregions and economicsectors.

Trend for countywide employment allocatedto areas by type using zip code levelemployment data.

Provide a ceiling on total new development.

Limit new residential construction for every fiveyear forecast period.

Potential increase in housing, population andemployment limited by buildout of GeneralPlans and persons/workers per household.

Historical permit activity or policy basedlimits.


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Forecast 20005

GeographyThe county boundaries are identical to the Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc MetropolitanStatistical Area (MSA), including the Channel Islands, comprises nearly 2,750 square miles of landand inland water area. Approximately rectangular in shape, Santa Barbara County is bordered on thenorth by San Luis Obispo County, on the east by Ventura County, and on the south and west by 107miles of Pacific coastline. Much of the county is mountainous. The Santa Ynez, San Rafael and

Sierra Madre mountains extend in a predominately east-west direction. Within the county there arenumerous fertile agricultural areas, including the Santa Maria, Cuyama, Lompoc, and Santa YnezValleys, and the southeast coastal plain. These areas, which include most of the developed land,also accommodate the majority of the population. Los Padres National Forest, in the eastern part ofthe county, covers approximately 44 percent of the total county area.

The population forecast is prepared for five subcounty areas referred to as the South Coast, Lompoc,Santa Maria, Santa Ynez, and Cuyama subregions. Vandenberg Air Force Base is in the Lompocsubregion. The Santa Maria subregion includes the Santa Maria and Guadalupe valleys. The SouthCoast subregion includes the Carpinteria and Santa Barbara\Goleta valleys. Forecasts are preparedfor both the cities and unincorporated areas. The new City of Goleta is addressed in the Appendixsince the necessary data was not available to include it in the forecast model.

Figure 1-1 identifies the boundaries of each area. The area names are as follows;

South Coast Subregion Santa Maria Subregion Cuyama SubregionCity of Carpinteria City of Santa Maria

City of Santa Barbara City of Guadalupe

Carp. Valley Uninc. SM Valley - Uninc.

SBUninc. Guad. Valley - Uninc.

City of Goleta

Lompoc Subregion Santa Ynez SubregionCity of Lompoc City of Solvang

Lompoc Valley Uninc. SY Valley Uninc.City of Buellton

The employment forecast uses similar geographic areas although it is not disaggregated into citiesand unincorporated areas. Employment forecasts use zip code level data that does not correspond tocity or unincorporated area boundaries. In addition, employment forecasts for small areas areinherently less accurate than for larger regions. For this reason the employment forecast is done forsubregions only. Note that the Santa Maria Subregion also includes the Cuyama Valley becauseemployment in that area is negligible. The subregions are as follows:

South Coast

Subregion

Santa Ynez

Subregion

Lompoc

Subregion

Santa Maria

Subregion

North County refers to the area west and north of Gaviota and includes the Santa Ynez, Lompoc,Santa Maria, and Cuyama valleys. The South Coast refers to the Goleta, Santa Barbara, Carpinteriacoastal plain.


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Forecast 20007

Chapter 2Population Forecast

IntroductionThis chapter describes the components of population, its forecast growth to 2030 and its

distribution to the cities and unincorporated areas. It also compares historical growth trends withforecast growth. Births, mortality, migration and other components of population growth are

discussed first.

Births and MortalityThe number of births in a region impacts population growth and the demand for services such as

schools, recreational facilities, childcare, and medical care. Historical data on births are used to

develop birth rates in the population model. The model applies these rates to the female population

in each jurisdiction to generate births by various age groups for each city and unincorporated area.

This is an essential part of the tool used in forecasting population called the cohort survival model.

The model ages the population by the various age groups (cohorts) by adding in births to the

baseline population (1990 Census population). The following Diagram 2-1 shows all the

components of the cohort model. Births are only one component of natural population change.Deaths are subtracted from the population group to complete the natural aging of the population.

The forecast provides population estimates for every five-year period by adding in new births and

subtracting out deaths.

This discussion will review historical, current, and forecast birth and mortality data. It will also review

some of the factors influencing births to aid in estimating future birth rates. Findings of this birth and

mortality evaluation have shown the following:

Countywide births have leveled off at approximately 6,000 annually.

The highest proportion of births is in North County and the proportion is increasing.

Santa Maria City has the largest percentage of countywide births.

Births to women of Hispanic Origin are increasing.

Women over 30 years old are giving birth in increasing numbers.

Overall mortality rates are in decline.

Infant Mortality rates are in decline.

Births rates have leveled off but are forecast to increase slightly over the forecast period.

Mortality rates are forecast to continue to decline over the forecast period.

Countywide birth and mortality rates are remarkably similar to state rates.

State and County Birth TrendsThe number of annual births in the county has for the last 25 years ranged from 3,500 to over 6,000

per year, according to data from the California State Department of Health, Statistics Branch. There

were 4,800 births In 1982 and by 1998 there were 5,700 births, an increase of 20 percent. The

countywide population increased by a similar percentage in the same period. Figure 2-1 shows the

number of births for the state and the county. Historically, on both a statewide and local level, births

have fluctuated from an unusually low rate during the depression and World ll years, to the post war

baby boom, and a subsequent decline that started in the sixties. An increase in births occurred in

the 80s due in part to the age progression of the baby boomer women enter their prime child

bearing ages of 20-30. We are now experiencing a leveling off and slight decline as these women

age past their prime childbearing years.


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Forecast 20008

Diagram 2-1

Components of the Cohort Survival Model

Base Data Population Distribution

of Males and Females

Multiply by male and femaleage specific

mortality rates

New population distribution

every five year period

Multiply by female age specificfertility assumptions

Subtract total number ofdeaths every 5 years

Add total number ofbirths every 5 years

Figure 2-1

Births for Santa Barbara County,

And the State of California

7071

7273

7475

7677

7879

8081

8283

8485

8687

8889

9091

9293

9495

960

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

County Births State Births


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Forecast 20009

Births are not evenly distributed throughout the county. There is a trend of more births in Santa

Maria Valley and fewer in the South Coast. In part, this is due to the increasing proportion of the

population located in Santa Maria. In 1982 the South Coast had 47 percent of the 4,800 total births

and by 1999 its share declined to 43 percent of the 5,400 total births. The Santa Maria area

(includes both the incorporated and unincorporated areas of the Santa Maria Valley) increased over

the same time period from 29 percent to 37 percent of countywide births. The Santa Ynez and

Cuyama Valleys well as the Lompoc Valley have remained relatively stable in their proportion of

countywide births

Figure 2-2

Distribution of Births by

Subregion

Total Births in 1999 = 5,400

South Coast

43%

Santa Maria

37%

Lompoc

16%

Santa Ynez

4%


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Forecast 200010

Figure 2-3 shows the proportion of births for the cities and the unincorporated areas of the county in

1999. The City of Santa Maria has the highest proportion of births at 35 percent but represents only

16 percent of the countywide population. The City of Santa Barbara has 26 percent of the births and

23 percent of the population. The unincorporated area as a whole has 18 percent of births and 42

percent of the population.

Figure 2-3

1999 Births for Cities and Unincorporated Total

Total Births in 1999 = 5,400

Carp

4%

Santa Barbara

26%

Guadalupe

2%

Lompoc

13%

Santa Maria

35%

Solvang

1%

Buellton

1%

Unincorporated

18%


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Forecast 200011

Historical Trends

Table 2-1 shows the number of births by postal zip code for 1982, 1996, and 1999. Births by zip

codes were then allocated to cities and unincorporated areas, although, in most cases the

correlation is not 100% accurate. For example, the Cities of Guadalupe and Carpinteria each have

only one zip code that covers both the city and the unincorporated area surrounding it. In these

instances the unincorporated areas are allocated a proportionate number of births based on 1990

population distribution. For the purpose of developing rough birth rates, this zip code allocation

method is sufficient. These birth rates are used in the forecast model to calculate the number of

births for women in various age groups.

The largest increases in births are for the Goleta, Guadalupe, and Santa Maria Zip code areas with

over 50 percent increase in births between 1982 and 1996. Zip code areas with decreases in births

between 1982 and 1996 occurred in the Santa Barbara 93109 zip code area, Montecito, and VAFB.

The most recent 1999 data is also shown. In most zip code areas the number of births has dropped

between 1996 and 1999 reversing the earlier trends showing a leveling off of the increasing birth

rates. This is consistent with statewide trends and the RGF.

Table 2-1

Births by Zip Code Areas,

Santa Barbara County, 1982, 1996, 1999

Zip Code Zip Code Area 1982 1996

1982-1996

Percent Change 1999

93013 Carpinteria 216 230 13% 230

93067 Summerland 9 10 11% 13

93101 Santa Barbara 488 625 28% 561

93103 Santa Barbara 310 322 4% 328

93105 Santa Barbara 243 280 15% 255

93108 Montecito 74 67 -9% 73

93109 Santa Barbara 133 124 -7% 11593110 Goleta 98 151 54% 148

93111 Goleta 153 161 5% 170

93117 Goleta/Isla Vista 532 533 0% 435

93427 Buellton 38 50 32% 61

93429 Casmalia 6 6 0% 6

93434 Guadalupe 87 132 52% 127

93436 Lompoc 638 769 21% 704

93437 VAFB 279 169 -39% 181

93440 Los Alamos 32 35 9% 13

93441 Los Olivos 20 19 -5% 7

93454* Santa Maria 1,049 1,676 60% 1,07093455 Orcutt 284 414 46% 309

93460 Santa Ynez 48 62 29% 65

93463 Solvang 64 94 47% 72

93458* 509

Total 4,800 5,960 24% 5,400The new Zip Code for 1999 is 93458. It subdivides 93454 Zip Code in the Santa Maria region.


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Forecast 200012

It is also apparent that the age distribution of the mothers giving birth is also shifting (Figure 2-4). In

1970 approximately 20 percent of total county births were attributed to the 30 and over age group.

By 1995 this had changed, almost 40 percent of total births were attributed to women in this same

age group. Women are waiting longer to have their first child while focusing on their careers or other

activities. The younger age groups (less than 29) have declined in their percentage share of births.

Figure 2-4

Age of Mothers Giving Birth,

1970-1995

From Sacramento Department of Health Services

70 75 80 85 90 950%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Age of Mother

< 19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40+

The proportion of births to younger mothers is highest in Santa Maria. The city has only 20 percent


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Forecast 200013

of females less than 20 years of age, and 46 percent of the total countywide births to mothers in that

age group. The unincorporated areas of the county have 42 percent of this age group but only 10

percent of the births. Figure 2-5 shows these proportions.

Figure 2-5

Births to Teenage Mothers in 1999,

For Cities and Total Unincorporated

100,500 Persons Under 20 Years of Age

600 Total Births for Mothers Under 20 Years of Age

Unincorp.42%

S.M.

20%

S.B.

18%

Lomp.

12%

Guad\Solv\Buell

4%

Carp.

4%

Unincorp.

10%

S.M.

46%S.B.

20%

Lomp.

17%

Guad\Solv\Buell

4%

Carp.

3%


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Forecast 200014

Births and School EnrollmentBirths eventually lead to enrollment of young children in school. By tracking births one can anticipate

future enrollment in local schools and to help provide information for developing additional

educational facilities and infrastructure. The California Basic Educational Data System (CBEDS)

collects student enrollment data for all the school districts in California. In Santa Barbara County,

from 1989 to 1999 enrollment increased by 26 percent, or 13,700 students. This trend is particularly

notable for elementary school grades 1-8 which increased from 37,600 students in 1989 to 47,000

students in 1999, a 25 percent increase. Enrollment increase varies throughout the county with

North County schools experiencing the greatest numerical growth (8,200 students) compared to

south county with 5,500 more students over the 1989-1999 period. Table 2-2 shows enrollment for

each Santa Barbara County School District in 1989 and 1999. (Student enrollment in county private

schools has been fairly constant at approximately 6,000). Year 2000 enrollment data is also

included to show that for some districts (shown in bold) enrollment has declined slightly between

1999 and 2000. Perhaps the cost of housing in the South Coast is impacting families with children

and causing them to relocate to other areas.

Table 2-2

School Enrollment Grades K-12, 1989-1999 and 2000

School Districts 1989 1999 1989-1999 1989-1999% Change 2000

Ballard 65 141 76 116% 141

Blochman Union 142 110 -32 -22% 97

Buellton Union 495 588 93 19% 634

Casmalia 28 22 -6 21% 27

Cold Spring 186 223 37 20% 239

College 620 674 54 9% 583

Goleta Union 3,741 4,515 774 20% 4,455

Guadalupe Union 994 1,110 116 12% 1,120

Hope 837 1,328 491 58% 1,312

Los Alamos 166 243 77 46% 247

Los Olivos 234 283 49 21% 316Montecito Union 407 514 107 26% 504

Orcutt Union 3,820 4,871 1,051 27% 5,013

Santa Barbara 5,004 6,094 1,090 22% 6,008

Santa Maria 8,377 11,109 2,732 33% 11,312

Solvang 491 664 173 35% 657

Vista Del Mar 78 133 55 70% 117

High School

Santa Barbara 7,443 9,841 2,398 32% 10,076

Santa Maria 4,257 6,101 1,844 43% 6,107

Santa Ynez 826 1,108 282 34% 1,105

Unified DistrictsLompoc 9,887 11,384 1,497 15% 11,584

Carpinteria 2,558 3,161 603 23% 3,118

Cuyama 288 321 33 11% 331

Total 51,660 65,410 13,750 26% 66,047Total includes 870 Special Education Students in 1999.


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Forecast 200015

Map 2-1 shows the location of school districts to correlate school district information from the

previous table with county areas.

Map 2-1

Santa Barbara County School Districts


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Forecast 200016

Births by EthnicityThe Department of Health classifies the mothers race/ethnicity into seven mutually exclusive

groups, which are Native American, Asian/Pacific Islander, Black, Filipino, Hispanic, White, and

Other. All mothers who indicated they were of Spanish/Hispanic Origin, regardless of their race,

were enumerated in the Hispanic group. Births by mothers of Hispanic Origin have dramatically

increased from 32 to 55 percent of total births between 1982-1996 (Figure 2-6). The influence of

Hispanic births can be seen in the corresponding increase in the number and proportion of Hispanic

students enrolled in the various school districts that increased from 30 to 40 percent from 1985

1996.

Figure 2-6

Births by Mothers of Hispanic Origin,

Santa Barbara County 1982-1996


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Forecast 200017

Birth Rates by Jurisdiction

Table 2-3 shows 1990 births for each jurisdiction developed from the California Department of

Health zip code birth data and the number of females in the respective age groups from the 1990

census. This data is used to calculate birth rates. They are calculated for each five-year age group

(15-19, 20-24, 25-29, etc.). In the forecast model, birth rates combined with the number of females

in that age group are used to calculate the number of births for each five year forecast period. Note

how the number of births varies by age with the 20-24, 25-29, and 30-34 age groups having the

highest annual birth rate.

Table 2-3

Age Specific Birth Rates

Females Number Annual Females Number Annual Females Number AnnualAge of Birth Age of Birth Age of Birth

Jurisdiction 15-19 Births Rate 20-24 Births Rate 25-29 Births Rate

South Coast Subregion 7,841 261 0.033 12,059 692 0.057 8,076 827 0.102

City of Carpinteria 421 26 0.062 493 55 0.112 555 61 0.110City of Santa Barbara 2,223 162 0.073 4,118 427 0.104 4,322 443 0.102Carp. VALLEY/City 497 38 0.076 632 81 0.128 735 89 0.121SB VALLEY/City 7,344 223 0.030 11,427 611 0.053 7,341 738 0.101

Lompoc Subregion 1,645 133 0.081 1,898 358 0.189 2,994 413 0.138City of Lompoc 1,131 117 0.103 1,216 272 0.224 1,837 326 0.177Lompoc VALLEY/City 1,645 133 0.081 1,898 358 0.189 2,994 413 0.138

Santa Maria Subregion 3,442 311 0.090 3,107 625 0.201 4,338 699 0.161City of Santa Maria 2,032 259 0.127 2,524 530 0.210 2,933 529 0.180City of Guadalupe 238 27 0.113 213 37 0.174 245 38 0.155SM VALLEY/City 3,172 281 0.089 2,919 584 0.200 4,071 657 0.161Guad. VALLEY/City 270 30 0.111 188 41 0.218 267 42 0.157

Santa Ynez Subregion 503 24 0.048 450 71 0.158 619 78 0.126City of Solvang 142 12 0.085 132 33 0.250 149 19 0.128City of Buellton 81 4 0.049 78 8 0.103 138 23 0.167SY VALLEY/Cities 503 24 0.048 450 71 0.158 619 78 0.126

Cuyama Subregion 14 0 0.000 25 8 0.320 32 4 0.125

County Total 13,445 729 0.054 17,539 1,754 0.100 16,059 2,021 0.126

Females Number Annual Females Number Annual Females Number Annual Females Number AnnualAge of Birth Age of Birth Age of Birth Age of Birth Total30-34 Births Rate 35-39 Births Rate 40-44 Births Rate 45-49 Births Rate Births

7,948 757 0.095 7,426 348 0.047 6,045 76 0.013 5,178 2 0.000 2,963611 54 0.088 631 27 0.043 523 5 0.010 348 0 0.000 2283,979 368 0.092 3,645 189 0.052 2,886 45 0.016 2,004 1 0.000 1,635737 79 0.107 844 39 0.046 636 7 0.011 560 0 0.000 3337,211 678 0.094 6,582 309 0.047 5,409 69 0.013 4,618 2 0.000 2,630

3,006 229 0.076 2,006 70 0.035 1,503 14 0.009 1,408 0 0.000 1,2171,811 181 0.100 1,348 59 0.044 1,040 14 0.013 873 0 0.000 9693,006 229 0.076 2,006 70 0.035 1,503 14 0.009 1,408 0 0.000 1,217

4,348 420 0.097 3,700 152 0.041 3,003 24 0.008 2,560 1 0.000 2,2322,691 312 0.116 2,123 108 0.051 1,587 16 0.010 1,354 0 0.000 1,754218 19 0.087 175 7 0.040 129 4 0.031 93 1 0.011 1334,098 399 0.097 3,482 144 0.041 2,859 20 0.007 2,433 0 0.000 2,085250 21 0.084 218 8 0.037 144 4 0.028 127 1 0.008 147

981 95 0.097 853 32 0.038 862 8 0.009 626 0 0.000 308158 26 0.165 191 9 0.047 195 2 0.010 137 0 0.000 101178 32 0.180 168 6 0.036 91 4 0.044 81 0 0.000 77981 95 0.097 853 32 0.038 862 8 0.009 626 0 0.000 308

26 5 0.192 33 2 0.061 34 1 0.029 72 0 0.000 20

16,309 1,506 0.092 14,018 604 0.043 11,447 123 0.011 9,844 3 0.000 6,740


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Forecast 200018

Mortality RatesThe California Department of Health Services provides mortality data. Countywide the total number

of deaths ranged from approximately 2,000 annually in 1970 to between 2,800-3,000 by the mid

1990s. Statewide the trend shows similar increases over time as the population ages and there are

a larger proportion of persons in the older age groups.

Figure 2-7

Mortality for Santa Barbara County,

And State of California, 1970-1996

7071

7273

7475

7677

7879

8081

8283

8485

8687

8889

9091

9293

9495

96

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

50

100

150

200

250

County Deaths State Deaths


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Forecast 200019

The Department of Health data also portrays residents death by zip code. The data is obtained

from death certificates registered in California. Table 2-4 shows mortality by zip code area. The zip

code area with the highest number of deaths is in Santa Maria (93454) with 484 or 17.5 percent of

the countywide deaths in 1996. Santa Barbara zip code 93105 has the highest percent of deaths for

zip code areas at 1.4 percent. The zip code areas with the lowest percent of deaths are in

Summerland (93067) and Isla Vista (93117).

Table 2-4

1996 Mortality Rates By Zip Code

Zip Code Zip Code Area Mortality Population

Mortality

Rate

93013 Carpinteria 125 16,553 .75%93067 Summerland 5 1,344 .37%93101 Santa Barbara 232 29,792 .70%93103 Santa Barbara 126 18,199 .69%93105 Santa Barbara 344 23,135 1.40%93108 Montecito 113 12,898 .87%93109 Santa Barbara 71 11,020 .64%93110 Goleta 167 15,293 1.00%93111 Goleta 131 17,781 .74%93117 Goleta/Isla Vista 146 46,017 .31%93427 Buellton 28 3,821 .73%

93434 Guadalupe 41 6,030 .68%93436 Lompoc 309 49,889 .62%93454 Santa Maria 484 60,247 .80%93455 Orcutt 290 32,779 .88%93460 Santa Ynez 34 5,795 .59%93463 Solvang 98 8,287 1.18%

Total 2,778 360,371 .70%


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Forecast 200020

Mortality varies by race. The difference in Santa Barbara County, however, is due to the age

distribution of the specific racial group. For example, the Hispanic Origin population is younger than

the population of the county as a whole and therefore has fewer deaths in the older 65+ age groups.

Note that in Figure 2-8 the Hispanic population accounts for 10 percent of the deaths but 27

percent of the population while the white population account for 85 percent of the deaths while

comprising 66 percent of the population.

Figure 2-8

Mortality and Race/Ethnicity,

Santa Barbara County, 1995

Asian/Other 3.0%Black 2.0%

Hispanic 10.2%

White 84.8%

Asian/Other 5%

Black 3%

Hispanic 27%

White 66%

Deaths by Race/EthnicityPopulation Distribution

by Race/Ethnicity


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Forecast 200021

Forecast Births and MortalityIn development of the cohort model it is necessary to forecast future birth and mortality rates. As

discussed earlier these rates are applied to the various age cohorts and geographical areas of the

county in the forecasts age cohort survival model. The model provides estimates of births and

deaths in five-year increments from 2000 to 2030.

Changes in the number of births result from several factors. The population of women in the

childbearing age groups is expected to grow slower. Another issue of importance is the number of

women entering the work force and continuing to delay childbearing until later. These factors have a

tendency to reduce births. On the other hand the large proportion of Hispanic families would tend to

increase birth rates. Hispanic females had 47 percent of 1990 births but the Hispanic population as

a whole constituted 27 percent of the total county population.

Figure 2-9 shows a Department of Finance forecast to 2005 of statewide births. Beyond 2000 there

is an increase of births for the following age groups: 15-19, 20-24, 25-29, and 40-44 year olds. In

general there is a leveling off of birth rates overall. The RGF also levels off the rate of births for

future forecast periods.

Figure 2-9

Department of Finance,

Statewide Births 1970-2005

The RGF age cohort model results are presented in Table 2-5 and 2-6. The 2000 Census baseline

population is aged in five-year increments to 2030. Birth rates increase slightly after the year 2000

due to the higher proportion of Hispanic and older women giving birth. Mortality rates are reduced

over the forecast period following national trends. The last column shows the countywide 1990-

20030 annual average natural net increases that range from 4,000 to 5,000 persons.


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Forecast 200022

Table 2-5

Births and Mortality,

For Cities, 2000-2030

Births

2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- Annual

City 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Change

Carpinteria 1,059 1,083 1,144 1,192 1,292 1,297 304

Santa Barbara 6,378 5,740 6,152 7,212 8,169 8,316 1,931

Solvang 578 547 595 645 696 792 156

Lompoc 4,420 4,830 5,126 4,958 5,037 5,656 1,204

Santa Maria 9,957 10,386 11,776 12,816 13,877 14,551 2,895

Guadalupe 499 679 756 774 763 748 180

Buellton 308 431 490 507 487 476 112

City Total 23,198 23,696 26,039 28,104 30,322 31,837 6,781

Mortality for Cities

Average

2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- Annual

City 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Change

Carpinteria 373 406 455 525 592 684 131

Santa Barbara 3,505 3,519 3,663 4,045 4,526 5,197 1,028

Solvang 210 268 276 273 264 244 67

Lompoc 852 1,037 1,135 1,189 1,228 1,375 289

Santa Maria 2,333 2,744 3,235 3,667 3,736 3,536 767

Guadalupe 92 142 145 155 159 166 38

Buellton 120 241 285 294 304 312 61

City Total 7,485 8,356 9,196 10,148 10,810 11,513 2,381

Net Change Births - Deaths

Average

2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- Annual

City 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Change

Carpinteria 686 677 689 667 700 613 174

Santa Barbara 2,873 2,221 2,488 3,167 3,643 3,120 903

Solvang 368 279 320 372 432 548 90

Lompoc 3,568 3,793 3,991 3,769 3,809 4,280 914

Santa Maria 7,624 7,642 8,541 9,149 10,141 11,016 2,127

Guadalupe 406 538 610 619 604 582 142

Buellton 188 190 205 212 183 164 51

City Total 15,713 15,340 16,844 17,956 19,512 20,324 4,401

Table 2-6

Births and Mortality,


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Forecast 200023

For Unincorporated Areas,

2000-2030

Unincorp.

Number of Births

Average

Unincorp. 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- Annual

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Change

Carpinteria 419 481 466 499 491 540 107

Santa Barbara 6,980 8,646 8,181 6,437 5,190 5,295 1,544

Santa Ynez 1,103 1,480 1,897 2,043 1,940 1,703 399

Lompoc 785 1,413 1,751 2,279 2,125 1,412 376

Santa Maria 1,995 3,783 4,353 4,892 4,733 4,378 940

Guadalupe 230 (63) (123) (98) (52) 48 8

Cuyama 100 108 129 148 153 160 34

Unincorp. Total 11,613 15,847 16,654 16,200 14,580 13,537 3,408

Unincorp.

Number of Deaths

Average

Unincorp. 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025- Annual

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Change

Carpinteria 314 587 491 516 561 589 111

Santa Barbara 3,071 4,236 4,542 4,816 5,521 6,066 1,138

Santa Ynez 859 1,269 1,431 1,539 1,637 1,771 325

Lompoc 269 792 911 1,072 1,231 1,286 213

Santa Maria 1,179 2,420 2,323 2,365 2,655 2,969 535

Guadalupe 454 219 163 129 120 123 41

Cuyama 79 78 82 89 96 102 22

Unincorp. Total 6,224 9,601 9,944 10,525 11,821 12,906 2,384

Unincorp.

Net Change Births-Deaths

Average

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2002 Regional Growth Forecast 2000 2030

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