2003 Real World Outage Planning

8/13/2019 2003 Real World Outage Planning

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Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.

2003 Primavera User Con ference

Real World Outage

Planning and Control

presented by

Mike Stonew/ Professional Project Management Services



2/58


Session Rules

Ask questions when confused.

Only one person can talk at a time.

Everyone participates.

No such thing as a dumb question.


3/58


Heres What Were Going to Tell You!

Define your work in detail

Estimate resources and durations

Assign work to individuals not groups

Track hours and cost

Work every minute that is available


4/58


Your Job is Not Simple!

1styoure going to plan how youre going

to develop your plan

Then, you have to plan the outage

Manage and control the work

Report the status to your bossMost importantly, you have to manage

peoples expectations


5/58


Defining Phase Objectives /

Goals

You have to know the real objectives for

this seasons outage.

Absolute shortest time? Absolute lowest cost?

Maximum production?

Best economic advantage to the plant?


6/58


Outage Economics 101

Everysystem has an economic value.

Everyproject can be accelerated.

Nominally, the marginal daily profit of a

system is the maximum acceleration

cost you should be willing to expend

for a day of acceleration.


7/58Copyright 2003 Primavera Systems, Inc.

Maximize Benefits

Time vs. money

Faster projects increase cost of work.

Faster projects decreases lost productionrevenues.

You must find the equilibrium betweenthe speed and the additional cost.



Construction Cost vs. Time

Project Cost

All jobs have a point where the

lowest possible cost has a time

associated with that cost.$

Time

Cost



Cost Benefit Analysis

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Long Outages Cost More

Total Cost of Long

DurationGoal is to work

in this area!!!

Out of Pocket

Costs

Opportunity

Costs

Lowest

Cost



Real Life Example

13,734

4,578

2,671

1,717

1,259954

736572 483 412 354 305 264 229 206 186 168 153 133 120 10 9 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 10 1 11 1 11 1 11

-$3,000,000

-$2,000,000

-$1,000,000

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Time

Value

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

No.

Men

Cummulative

Labor Cost

OpportunityCost

Number ofPeople

Real Costof Outage

Break Even Point



Shorten Outage by Eliminating Work

There are three work phases to every

outage: Work that can be done pre-outage

Work that can only be done during the outage

And work that can be done post-outage

Eliminating any work that can be done in

a non-outage situation is critical.



Simplify Scope Definition w/ Excel

WBS for Construction of a Small Building OBS / Responsibility

1 Foundations

1.1 Clear Site

1.2 Excavate for Foundations

1.3 Pour Concrete

1.3.1 Piers

1.31.1 Survey locations for piers A-1 Surveying

1.3.1.2 Drill piers - place steel - pour Real Deep Drilling Co.

1.3.1.3 Tie steel cages for piers Bob's Re-Bar Service1.3.2 Footings

1.3.3 Slab



Estimating

For every task-identified estimate: Resources required

Equipment

Materials

For every task, estimatethe duration



Duration = Work / Productivity

You can not estimate durations without

making assumptions about which resources

will be available and their productivity

period!

Work To Be Performed

Productivity Rate = Duration

Productivity per Man x No. of Men = Productivity Rate


15/58


Estimating

Develop a

worksheet for

each activity

identified

No exceptions

Task : Remove Brick From Kiln 4/18/2002 Task No. 001

Scope : Quantity : 2,187.0 SFProductivity : 550.0 SF / Day

Duration : 4.0 D ays

Work Day : 10.0 Hours

LABOR

Qty Description Days Hours Rate Total Unit Cost

1 Foreman 4 40.00 28.75 1,150.00 0.53Machinist 4 22.50Welder 4 26.00

6 Laborers 4 240.00 16.00 3,840.00 1.7644

44

7 Totals. 280.00 17.82 4,990.00 2.28

LABOR BURDEN Total Labor $$ Burden Rate Total Unit Cost

Burden = Taxes, Fringes, Insurance, HOOH, etc. 4,990.00 43.50% 2,170.65 0.99

EQUIPMENT

Qty Description Days Hours Rate / Price Total Unit Cost

0.5 Forklift 4 20.00 45.00 900.00 0.41

1 Air Compressor 4 40.00 45.00 1,800.00 0.820.2 Front-end loader 4 8.00 45.00 360.00 0.161 Dump Truck 4 40.00 45.00 1,800.00 0.82

4 45.00

2.7 Totals. 108.00 45.00 4,860.00 2.22

MATERIALS

Qty Description Rate Qty Unit Price Total Unit Cost

Totals.

TOOLS / SUPPLIESQty Description Rate Qty Unit Price Total Unit Cost

1 Cutting torch 40 40.00 8.00 320.00 0.15

1 Totals. 40.00 8.00 320.00 0.15

SUBCONTRACTORS

Qty Description Days Hours / Qty Rate Total Unit Cost

44444

Totals.

TOTAL COSTS .. $12,340.65 $5.64

Remove brick from kiln; approximately 58' of brick from the burning zone.Diameter = 12' x 3.142857 x 58 = 2187 sf of brick to be demo'd - includes removalthrough loading wasted bricks into dump trucks for disposal.


16/58


Scope / Productivity =

Duration

Task or Activity

Name

Date estimate

was made

Schedule ID

Number

Task : Remove Brick From Kiln 4/18/2002 Task No. 001

Scope : Quantity : 2,187.0 SF

Productivity : 550.0 SF / Day

Duration : 4.0 Days

Work Day : 10.0 Hours

Remove brick from kiln; approximately 58' of brick from the burning

zone. Diameter = 12' x 3.142857 x 58 = 2187 sf of brick to be

demo'd - includes removal through loading wasted bricks into dump

trucks for disposal.

Detailed scope

information

Qty / Productivity /

Duration Basis


17/58


LaborThe Biggest Variable

LABOR

Qty Description Days Hours Rate Total Unit Cost

1 Foreman 4 40.00 28.75 1,150.00 0.53Machinist 4 22.50

Welder 4 26.00

6 Laborers 4 240.00 16.00 3,840.00 1.76

4

4

4

4

7 Totals. 280.00 17.82 4,990.00 2.28

LABOR BURDEN Total Labor $$ Burden Rate Total Unit Cost

Burden = Taxes, Fringes, Insurance, HOOH, etc. 4,990.00 43.50% 2,170.65 0.99

Crew make-up Crew costsDays / hours


18/58


Sequence the Activities

Place the activities in the most logical

sequence Only consideration is physical constraint

Dont worry about who will do the work

Dont worry about rolling crews, etc.


19/58


CPM Schedule

If you are not scheduling using a CPM

scheduleyoure not scheduling


20/58


Does Anyone Know What This Is?


21/58


Topological Construction Schedule

24 July 1957


22/58


Sequencing

The right sequence is much more

important than the planned dates


23/58


If You Have a Good Sequence!

A schedule with good logic has a very

good chance of working properly, evenif all of the estimated durations are

wrong.


24/58


If You Have a Bad Sequence!

A schedule with bad logic has virtually

no chance of working correctly, nomatter the accuracy of duration

estimates!


25/58


Some Simple Rules

Every activity (except the first and last)

MUSThave a predecessor andsuccessor activityperiod.


26/58


Keep Activities Small

Activities need to be broken into small

enough portions that they can besequenced in relation to other tasks

and areas of the project easily.


27/58


Accountability

Activities need to be broken into small

enough pieces so that only one personis responsible for the activity.

C iti l R d


28/58


Critical Resources and

Resource Leveling

Critical resources are not craftsman or

equipment.You can get more with a phone call and

money!


29/58


Critical Resources

SUPERVISORS

The most critical resource is the number

of responsible people that can be

assigned and held accountable to

complete tasks


30/58


Assign Every Task to a Responsible Person

Accountable for Its Completion

When you run out of names, youve

reached the limit of what will get done in

that day.

On most outages, a lead person or

foreman can not oversee more than

about three tasks per day.


31/58


Resource Leveling

Reassign activities to

uniformly spread the

work for each lead

person over the

outage and eliminate

non-work periods

and over subscribedperiods.

Bob

BobDont Stack Activities

Do String Activities


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Band by Person

Band by person

Color by person

Look for blankspace or for

stacked activities

2001 2002

DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY

31 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 4 11 18 25 1 8 15 22 29 6

Mike N. Ooopsie 0181 4,51

MOTOR GROUNDSAND INSPECTIONS

0149 2,57

MOTORGROUNDS

0150 1,57

KILN HOODCAMERA

0151 2,58

KilnThermocouples

Nunzio O. Pokieman 0155 4,59

CALIBRATESWITCH GEAR

0172 1,69

OXYGENANALYZER

Paul Q. Redowork 0154 2,39

WARMUP KILN

0143 0,37

EMPTYFEED TANK

0144 0,37

BURNKILN OUT

Quincy R. Sleepsonthejob

0187 10,71

COAL MILL ROLLSAND INTERNALS

Raul S. Takeabreak 0173 1,66

INSPECTFEED TANK

0185 2,44

DRAGCHAIN

0174 1,66

DUSTELEVATOR

0175 2,66

FEEDSCREW

0171 1,63

DUSTSCREWS

0176 1,63

FEEDTANK D.C.

0178 0,65

EMERGENCYAIR DAMPERS

Steve T. Unmotivated 0184 3,38

CLINKERBREAKER

0182 2,54

COOLERFANS

0145 1,37

PULLKILN HOOD

0191 1,71

TRIPLEGATE VALVES

0056

#2 COOLERDRAG

0166 6,62

REPLACE BAGS -3 COMPARTMENTS

0152 6,57

REPLACE CHAINAS NEEDED

0153 0,39

CLOSE HOOD &INSTALL BURNER PIPE

0147 3,60

REPAIR HOODSEALS SHROUD

0168 3,64

FLUIDDRIVE

0167 1,69

I.D.FAN

0170 1,69

MULTICONES

0169 1,64

REVERSEAIR FAN

0177 1,64

FEEDBLOWERS

0180 9,39

GRATES AND BEAMS

0183 3,53

COOLERDRIVE

0146 1,37

REPLACE NOSECASTINGS

0148 2,62

KILNREPAIRS

Tommy U. Viaduct 0192 0,89

MOTOR GROUNDSAND INSPECTIONS

0188 4,71

COALMILL FAN

0189 2,71

REPAIR COALMILL CYCLONE

0190 1,71

COAL MILL CYCLONETIPPING GATE

Xenia Y. Lazyone 0157 1,37

TEAR OUTBRICK

0159 2,37

BRICK KILN -contractor

0160 2,37

REFRACTORYPATCHES IN KILN

0158 1,37

CLEANOUT KILN

0164 3,59

BRICKMATERIAL COSTS

0161 1,37

POURNOSE

0163 1,37

REFRACTORYPATCHES IN KILN

0162 2,38

POUR REFRACTORYIN COOLER

P l ot D at e 1 8FEB02D a t a D a t e 1 3 J AN 0 2Project Start 5JAN02Project Finish26APR02

(c) Primavera Systems, Inc.

Activity Bar/Early Datesa c t id r d t f

Critical ActivityProgress BarMilestone/Flag Activity

Date ApprovedCheckedRevision

Lead Person

Q u in c y R. S le e ps o nt h ej o b R a ul S . Ta ke a br e ak

T omm y U . V iad uct Mi ke N. Ooop sie

N un zi o O . P ok ie ma n P au l Q . R ed ow or k

X en ia Y. La zy on e S te ve T. Un mo ti va te d

TL-01 Lead Person on Kiln 2

Lone98

Lone Star IndustriesLS 03 S hee t 1 of 1


33/58


Band by Person (cont.)

Band by person

Color by person

Look for blankspace or for

stacked activities

JA N5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3

0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 18 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 18 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 18 0 6 1 2 18 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 1 8 0 6 1 2 18 0

T e s t S a f e t y V a l v

O p e n I n s p e c t i o n D o o r s

C h a n g e O i l i n P r e h e a t e r B e a r i n g

S c a f f o l d R e h e a t e r S e c t i o

L u b r ic a t e V a l v e s a n d R e p a i r G a s V a l

L u b r i c a t e A i r S h a f t

C h e c k B u r n e r s

R e p a c k V a l v e

F i r e B o i l e r

C o n n e c t A c i d P i p i n g a n d A c i d C l e a n B o i

I n s p e c t A i r D u c t

R e p a i r R e h e a te r T u b e s a n d P e e p h o l e G a s

R e m o v e a n d C l e a n P i p i n

I n s p e c t A i r P re h e a t e r s a n d F a n B e a r i

R e p a i r B l o w d o w n L i n e

r e c t S a n d b l a s t S t r u c t u

R e m o v e L a g g i n

R e m o v e E x h a u st H D .

R e m o v e E x h a u s t H o o d a n d I n n e r S h e l l B o l t i

R e m o v e I n n e r S h e

S a n d b l a s t S p i n d l

C l e a n B o l t s a n d S h e l l J o i n

M a g n a f l u x S p i n d l

B o i l e r U n i t

Wil l iam F . S imon - B o i ler maker /Mech S uper visor

K ath leen M. B lack - O per at ions Manage r

Micha el S . R eese - P ipef i tt er S upe r visor

John R . D aly - Welder S uper in tendent

T u r b i n e G e n e r a t o r

Wil l iam F . S imon - B o i ler maker /Mech S uper visor

P ri m a v e r a S y s t e m s , I n c .

Sta rt Da te 0 5 J AN 0 0 0 0 :0 0

F i n i s h Da te 2 2 JAN 0 0 1 2:5 9

Da ta Da te 0 8 J AN 0 0 0 0 :0 0

Ru n Da te 2 6 FEB 0 2 0 4 :3 8

E a r l y B a r

P r o g re s s B a r

C ri t i c a l A c t i v i t y

O UTG

Northeast Utilities Co.

Demons trationOutage Project

Grouped by Subproj&&Responsibility

Sheet 1of 3

Da te Re vis io n e ck Ap pro ve d


34/58


Work All of the Time!

168 hours in a week

Most projects, even

acceleratedprojects, use less

than 40% of the

available time.

5x8s 40 hrs 24%

5x10s 50 hrs 30%

6x12s 72 hrs 43%

7x12s 84 hrs 50%


35/58


Night Shift Syndrome

Poor productivity

Caused by least skilled workforce

Caused by poor supervision


36/58


Night Shift Solutions

Solve by assigning more senior

supervisors and craftsmen to night

shifts

Be prepared to pay a shift differential

Project managers have to work nights,

too!


37/58


Anticipate Productivity Loss

Only 75% productivity 1st

week of 7x12s

Only 70% productivity

2

nd

week of 7x12s

Only 65% productivity 3rd

week of 7x12s

7x12s will produce less

than hours of productive

work by week 6


38/58


Anticipate Non-Work Periods

Dont plan outages that will go through

major holidays

If you must, anticipate loss in

productivity or a loss in attendance

Also high probability of non-delivery by

suppliers


39/58


Plan on multiple shifts

Increase critical resources

Means more supervision Assistant project managers

Superintendents

Foreman

Lead craftsmen


40/58


Bag and Tag

Pre-package nuts/bolts/gaskets for

particular tasksminimize time

looking for parts Palletize parts

Use bins

Piles as a last resort


41/58


Organize Laydown Areas by Task

B2

B4

B6

B8

B10

B1

B3

B5

B7

B9

A2

A4

A6

A8

A10

A1

A3

A5

A7

A9

O i L d A b F


42/58


Organize Laydown Area by Foreman

or by Equipment / System

Crusher

PH Twr

Clinker Dome

Silos

Conveyors

Kiln

Cooler

Pan Conv

Finish

Mill

Raw Mill

Bob

David

Frank

Hank

Jack

Andy

Charles

Ed

George

Inez


43/58


Walkdowns

Prior to finalizing schedule and duration

estimates, have each responsible

person walk down their list of items.


44/58


Negotiations with Lead People

After walkdowns have been completed,

get 100% buy-in from each person.

I can depend upon you to complete

your tasks in the assigned time

correct?


45/58


Negotiations with Lead People (cont.)

If there is any hesitation, negotiate to

supply more resources, lengthen the

duration, or make other changes

beforeyou finalize the plan.

Do notgo into the outage without 100%

buy-in from every lead person for

his/her portion of the work.


46/58


Resource and Cost Loading

Only two resources are necessary to

measure status and progress Cash value

Hours

Everything else is just extrakeep it

simple.


47/58


Earned Value

If youre not measuring progress and

performance using earned value

youre not measuring progress or

performance.


48/58


Earned Value (cont.)

Cash allows earned value measurements

on the dollar values Can be skewed by major equipment deliveries

Can be skewed by materials / erection equipment

Project managers often dont have control over the

price of materials, etc.


49/58


Earned Value (cont.)

Hours allows earned value measurements

on the actual effort plus provides a

basis for job population counts.

Project managers have control over Labor

Amount of labor available

Application of labor


50/58


Performance Measurement and Reporting

If it seems to complicated, simplify it to fit

your projects.

Remember, during an outage updates

and progress reporting must be done

daily or even with every shift change.


51/58


Earned Value

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Days

Manhours

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP


52/58


HoursDaily amd Cumulative

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Days

Daily

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Cummulative

Daily Plan

Cumm Act

Daily Act

Cumm Plan


53/58


One Page Status Summaries

Consider multiple

small graphs all

using the sametime scale

Allows reviewer

to get the bigpicture quickly

Competitor Cement - Michigan Day 8 of 17Annual Maintenance Outage Status Summary - Spring 2002

Number of Men

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 2 1 2 3

Days

Men

Planned

Actual

Raw Manhours Planned vs Expended

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Days

Daily

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Cummulative

Planned

Act. Daily

Cumm. Plan

Act. Cumm.

Completed Work Orders

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Days

Daily

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Cummulative

DailyPlan

DailyAct.

Cumm. Plan

Cumm. Act.

WORK ORDERS ARE

TAKEN TO STATUS 90 AND

HELD TO FACILITATE ANY

ADDITIONAL PARTS TO BE

ORDERED!!!!!!!!!!!

NO MEASUREMENT!!!!!!

Schedule Tasks Completed

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23Days

Daily

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Cummulative

Daily Plan

Daily Act.

Cumm. Plan

Cumm. Act.

Earned Value - Manhours

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 1 5 17

Thousands

Days

Manhours

BCWS

BCWP

ACWP

Performance Indices

0.0000

0.2500

0.5000

0.7500

1.0000

1.2500

1.5000

1.7500

2.0000

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 1 5 1 7 1 9 21 2 3

Days

CPI

SPI


54/58


Heres What We Told You!

Define the work

Plan your work

Assign every task to someonePerform walkdowns in advance


55/58


Heres What We Told You! (cont.)

Negotiate for 100% buy-in

Measurereport by person

Organize parts / materials logically


56/58


Two Most Important Points

Most critical resource is supervision

Work all of the time that is available


57/58


Questions?


58/58

Contact Us!

Mike Stone

Professional Project Management Services

P.O. Box 546

Richmond, TX 77406

281 / 343-0712

[email protected]

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2003 Real World Outage Planning

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