2003 WFAPMC GMO - University of Wisconsin–Madison

Economics of GMO Technologies

Joe LauerUniversity of Wisconsin

Lauer, © 1994-2003University of Wisconsin – Agronomy

O iOverview

• Describe data set used and calculations• Ranking of transgenic hybrids to the trial averageg g y g• Yield and grower return of transgenic corn hybrids

compared to the:compared to the:Trial averageNormal dent corn hybrid averageNormal dent corn hybrid averageSister lines

• Economics matrix• Economics matrix


http://corn.agronomy.wisc.edu/select/Lauer, © 1994-2003

University of Wisconsin – Agronomy

University of WisconsinyCorn Agronomy Program

2002

RhinelanderSpooner

Chippewa FallsWhite Lake

Chippewa Falls

Marshfield Seymour

ValdersHancock

Galesville

Fond du LacFond du Lac

Arlington

JanesvilleLancaster

C l l ti G R tCalculating Grower Return

PEPSCorn price ($/bu) S ($/ )Grower return = (Yield x Price) - Handling ($0.02 per bushel) - Hauling ($0.04 per bushel) - Trucking ($0.11 per bushel)

$40 $4.00 Corn price Seed price

PEPSCorn price ($/bu) Seed price ($/A)

g ( p )- Drying ($0.02 per bushel-point above 15.5%) - Storage ($0.02 per 30 day)- Seed ($10 per Acre) for Transgenic cornMarketing plan: 50% sold at harvest, 25% at 4 $30

$35

$3 00

$3.50

months, and 25% at 8 months.

gr250: Price per bushel = $2.50Livestock: $0.00 drying, $0.01 storage, $0.00 trucking $25

$30

$2.50

$3.00

On-farm: $0.02 drying, $0.02 storage

Commercial: $0.04 drying, $0.03 storage

grPEPS: Weighted Price per bushel = 50% November Average Cash price

$20 $2.00 = 50% November Average Cash price + 25% March CBOT Futures ($0.15 basis) + 25% July CBOT Futures ($0.10 basis) November Average Cash price derived from WI Ag Statistics; CBOT Futures prices derived from closing price

$15 $1.50 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Year


; p g pon first business day in December. Year

Frequency of Specialty Hybrids YieldingFrequency of Specialty Hybrids Yielding Above Average in the 2002 WI Hybrid Trials

83

100 Frequency above trial average

50

7261

cy (%

)

50 48 47 4439

2937

50

Freq

uenc

29

0

F

00

1998 (n=1611)

1999 (n=1390)

2000 (n=1361)

2001 (n=1266)

2002 (n=949)

Bt (n=420)

Bt,LL (n=58)

Bt,RR (n=104)

IMI (n=7)

LL (n=4)

RR (n=103)


Normal Dent

Frequency of “Bt” Hybrids yielding Above theFrequency of Bt Hybrids yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials

100100

69

55 57 60

70 7265

y (%

)

55 57

50

eque

ncy

Fre

01996 (n=12)1997 (n=52)1998 (n=118)1999 (n=323)2000 (n=321)2001 (n=267)2002 (n=420) Average (n=151


( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) g (

Frequency of “Gene Stack” Hybrids YieldingFrequency of Gene Stack Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials

83 83

100

6761

6671

67 6761 61

cy (%

)

4250

Freq

uenc

F

01998

(n=39)1999

(n=46)2000

(n=72)2001

(n=74)2002

(n=58)Average (n=289)

1999 (n=12)

2000 (n=18)

2001 (n=24)

2002 (n=104)

Average (n=158)

Bt LL Bt RRLauer, © 1994-2003

University of Wisconsin – Agronomy

Bt,LL Bt,RR

Frequency of “Bt” Hybrid Events yielding AboveFrequency of Bt Hybrid Events yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials

All Bt Bt YG100100

8682

96100All Bt Bt-YG

69

60

70 7265

7382

78

(%)

55 57 60

5057

50

quen

cy

Freq

0


1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Average

Frequency of “IMI” Hybrids (IT and IR)YieldingFrequency of IMI Hybrids (IT and IR)Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials

100

62

%)

3947

39 4348

3850

Freq

uenc

y (%

13

25 2530

F

0

13

01992 (n=3)1993 (n=24)1994 (n=28)1995 (n=13)1996 (n=12)1997 (n=15)1998 (n=33)1999 (n=70)2000 (n=21)2001 (n=12)2002 (n=10) Average (n=24


1992 (n 3)1993 (n 24)1994 (n 28)1995 (n 13)1996 (n 12)1997 (n 15)1998 (n 33)1999 (n 70)2000 (n 21)2001 (n 12)2002 (n 10) Average (n 24

Frequency of “Liberty Link” Hybrids YieldingFrequency of Liberty Link Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials

86100

61 6054cy

(%)

50

40

5450

Freq

uenc

0

F

00

1997 (n=18)

1998 (n=5)

1999 (n=12)

2000 (n=10)

2001 (n=7)

2002 (n=4)

Average (n=56)


(n=18) (n=5) (n=12) (n=10) (n=7) (n=4) (n=56)

Frequency of “Roundup Ready” Hybrids YieldingFrequency of Roundup Ready Hybrids Yielding Above the Trial Average in the WI Corn Trials

100

55 57 60y (%

)

5546

37

4750

requ

enc

Fr

01998

(n=55)1999

(n=42)2000

(n=47)2001

(n=1212002

(n=103)Average (n=333)


(n=55) (n=42) (n=47) (n=121 (n=103) (n=333)

Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to theRelative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to the Trial Average (through 2002)

S i lt G i G i GR GRSpecialty Trait N

Grain yield

Grainmoisture Lodging

GR$2.50

GRPEPS

Bu/A % % $/A $/ABt 1513 6 0.4 0 4.06 1.95Bt-LL 289 8 0.0 0 9.30 5.77Bt-RR 158 6 0.3 0 4.45 3.05IMI 241 -4 0.0 0 -15.44 -14.57LL 56 1 0 9 0 -8 23 -8 57LL 56 1 0.9 0 -8.23 -8.57RR 333 -2 0.3 0 -2.19 -9.71Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) – (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking)GR PEPS = $2.24/buDrying=$0.02/point bu, Handling=$0.02/bu; Hauling=$0.04/bu; Storage=$0.02/bu mo; Trucking $0.11/bu


Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to theRelative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to the Average of Normal Corn (through 2002)


Grain yield


GR$2.50

GRPEPS

Bu/A % % $/A $/ABt 1513 8 0.5 0 4.82 2.03Bt-LL 289 10 0.1 0 9.57 9.81Bt-RR 158 9 0.4 -1 8.16 5.68IMI 241 -3 0.1 0 -16.52 -15.86LL 56 2 1 0 0 -9 64 -10 23LL 56 2 1.0 0 -9.64 -10.23RR 333 0 -0.1 0 -9.09 -9.17Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) – (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking)GR PEPS = $2.24/buDrying=$0.02/point bu, Handling=$0.02/bu; Hauling=$0.04/bu; Storage=$0.02/bu mo; Trucking $0.11/bu


Relative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared toRelative Performance of Specialty Hybrids Compared to Normal Sister Lines (through 2002)


Grain yield


GR$2.50

GRPEPS

Bu/A % % $/A $/ABt 124 4 1.0 0 -5.09 -6.42Bt-LL 7 15 0.0 -3 22.13 13.79IMI 9 -17 0.6 0 -44.84 -42.18RR 28 -2 0.1 -1 -13.37 -12.36Grower return = (Yield x Corn price) – (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking)Grower return (Yield x Corn price) (Drying+Handling+Hauling+Storage+Trucking)GR PEPS = $2.24/buDrying=$0.02/point bu, Handling=$0.02/bu; Hauling=$0.04/bu; Storage=$0.02/bu mo; Trucking $0.11/bu


Grower return of “Bt” Hybrids Compared toGrower return of Bt Hybrids Compared to Normal Dent Corn Hybrids in the WI Corn Trials

250 PEPS24

22

26gr250 grPEPS

Favors BT18

15

n ($

/A)

9

542er

retu

rn

-2 -2-1-4

0

Gro

we

-9 -8-9 -10-15

Favors Normal


1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Average

Breakeven Matrix for Corn Hybrid Seed Sold atBreakeven Matrix for Corn Hybrid Seed Sold at Various Technology Fees

T h l f T h l f T h l fTechnology fee= $10 / bag

Technology fee=$20 / bag

Technology fee=$30 / bag

Yield Corn price ($/Bu) Corn price ($/Bu) Corn price ($/Bu)Yield increase (Bu/A)

Corn price ($/Bu) Corn price ($/Bu) Corn price ($/Bu)

2.00 2.50 3.00 2.00 2.50 3.00 2.00 2.50 3.00

0 4 13 4 13 4 13 8 2 8 2 8 2 12 38 12 38 12 380 -4.13 -4.13 -4.13 -8.25 -8.25 -8.25 -12.38 -12.38 -12.382 -0.13 0.87 1.87 -4.25 -3.25 -2.25 -8.38 -7.38 -6.384 3 87 5 87 7 87 0 25 1 75 3 75 4 38 2 38 0 384 3.87 5.87 7.87 -0.25 1.75 3.75 -4.38 -2.38 -0.386 7.87 10.87 13.87 3.75 6.75 9.75 -0.38 2.63 5.628 11 87 15 87 19 87 7 75 11 75 15 75 3 62 7 62 11 628 11.87 15.87 19.87 7.75 11.75 15.75 3.62 7.62 11.6210 15.87 20.87 25.87 11.75 16.75 21.75 7.62 12.62 17.62

Assume: 80 000 seeds/bag planted at 33 000 seeds/A for final population of 30 000 plants/A


Assume: 80,000 seeds/bag planted at 33,000 seeds/A for final population of 30,000 plants/A

SSummary

• Bt Bt LL d Bt RR h b id i ld d t• Bt, Bt-LL and Bt-RR corn hybrids yield and return more than the trial and normal dent corn average.

At thi ti IMI SR LL RR Bt IMI t it d t dd tAt this time IMI, SR, LL, RR, Bt-IMI traits do not add to yield or grower return.

• IMI SR LL RR and Bt-IMI corn hybrids shouldIMI, SR, LL, RR, and Bt-IMI corn hybrids should only be recommended for problem fields or difficult management situations.difficult management situations.

• “Variation for grain yield exists among commercial Transgenic hybrids sold incommercial Transgenic hybrids sold in Wisconsin.”

Care must be taken in selecting individual hybrids.


g y

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2003 WFAPMC GMO - University of Wisconsin–Madison

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