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2005 OBP Biennial Peer Review Platform Analysis Overview Bob Wallace, NREL Integrated Biorefinery Project Date: November 16, 2005
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2005 OBP Biennial Peer Review
Platform Analysis Overview
Bob Wallace, NREL
Integrated Biorefinery Project
Date: November 16, 2005
Overview
Budget • National Laboratory Partners
• NREL (lead)
• ORNL
• PNNL
• INL
• ANL• Subcontracts
• Bioindustry Transition Modeling /The Peterson Group
• Back-casting Ethanol industry TBD
• Biorefine / John Marano
Partners
• Provide a clear path forward for research and analysis by identifying and overcoming the technical, R&D, and market barriers towards the commercialization of a bioindustry.
Integrated Biorefinery Analysis Objective
050
100150200250300
Fu
nd
ing
($K
)
2004 2005 2006(planned)
Core R&D
Integrated Biorefinery Analysis
Life Cycle Assessment
Strategic Analysis
Platforms Analysis
Tools & Methods Development
Other Studies:•Emerging Technologies
• RBAEF
• Biorefine
• Market, Risk, Policy
Feedstocks Biochemical ProductsThermochemical
R&D Platforms
Integrated Biorefinery Analysis
Integrated Biorefinery
Analysis
Life Cycle Assessment
Strategic Analysis
Platforms Analysis
Tools & Methods Development
Other Studies:•Emerging Technologies
• RBAEF
• Biorefine
• Market, Risk, Policy
Feedstocks Biochemical ProductsThermochemical
R&D Platforms
Integrated Biorefinery Analysis
Bioindustry Analysis
Integrated Biorefinery
Analysis
Life Cycle Assessment
Strategic Analysis
Platforms Analysis
Integrated Biorefinery Platform
Tools & Methods Development
Other Studies:•Emerging Technologies
• RBAEF
• Biorefine
• Market, Risk, Policy
Feedstocks Biochemical ProductsThermochemical
R&D Platforms
Working Together
Program Direction
R&DPlatform Analysis
Strategic Analysis
Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC.
Working Together
Program Direction
R&DPlatform Analysis
Strategic Analysis
Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC.
Working Together
Program Direction
R&DPlatform Analysis
Strategic Analysis
Information and programmatic direction are interlinked at NREL and in the NBC.
Strategic analysis drives the R&D through Platform Analysis and in turn, Platform Analysis drives Program
Direction through Strategic Analysis.
Strategy and Pathways –Intermediate to Long Term
ThermochemicalR&D
FeedstockR&D
BiochemicalR&D
ProductsR&D
IntegratedBiorefinery
Corn Wet Mill Improvements
Corn Dry Mill Improvements
Agricultural Residue
Processing
Energy Crops
Pulp & Paper Mill
Improvements
Forest Products Mill
Improvements
Corn
Other Grains
Corn StoverWheat StrawRice Straw
Perennial GrassesWoody Crops
Mill WastesWood
Mill WastesWood
Residual Starch ConversionFiber Conversion
New Fractionation Process
Residual Starch ConversionDDG Conversion
New Fractionation Process
Biomass Sugar Production
New Fractionation Process
Biomass Sugar Production
New Fractionation Process
New Fractionation Process for
hemicellulose removal
Fiber Conversion
DDG Conversion
Biomass & Lignin Gasification
Biomass & Lignin Gasification
Black Liquor, Biomass, & Lignin Gasification
Biomass Gasification& Pyrolysis
New Products fromC5/C6 Sugars
Products from Oils
New Products from
C5/C6 Sugars
Products from C5/C6 Sugars, Lignin, Synthesis Gas, New
Process Intermediates
Products from C5/C6 Sugars, Lignin, Synthesis Gas, New
Process Intermediates
Products from C5/C6 SugarsProducts from BL Syngas
Products from Synthesis GasProducts from Bio-oil
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve corn wet milling facilities using corn grain feedstock by
2008
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve corn dry milling facilities using corn grain feedstock by
2008
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
utilize agricultural residue feedstocks in existing or new
facilities by 2009
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
utilize perennial crops in existing or new facilities by 2012
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve pulp & paper mill facilities and/or produce
additional products from wood by 2012
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to improve forest products mill
facilities and/or produce additional products by 2012
Strategy and Pathways –Intermediate to Long Term
ThermochemicalR&D
FeedstockR&D
BiochemicalR&D
ProductsR&D
IntegratedBiorefinery
Corn Wet Mill Improvements
Corn Dry Mill Improvements
Agricultural Residue
Processing
Energy Crops
Pulp & Paper Mill
Improvements
Forest Products Mill
Improvements
Corn
Other Grains
Corn StoverWheat StrawRice Straw
Perennial GrassesWoody Crops
Mill WastesWood
Mill WastesWood
Residual Starch ConversionFiber Conversion
New Fractionation Process
Residual Starch ConversionDDG Conversion
New Fractionation Process
Biomass Sugar Production
New Fractionation Process
Biomass Sugar Production
New Fractionation Process
New Fractionation Process for
hemicellulose removal
Fiber Conversion
DDG Conversion
Biomass & Lignin Gasification
Biomass & Lignin Gasification
Black Liquor, Biomass, & Lignin Gasification
Biomass Gasification& Pyrolysis
New Products fromC5/C6 Sugars
Products from Oils
New Products from
C5/C6 Sugars
Products from C5/C6 Sugars, Lignin, Synthesis Gas, New
Process Intermediates
Products from C5/C6 Sugars, Lignin, Synthesis Gas, New
Process Intermediates
Products from C5/C6 SugarsProducts from BL Syngas
Products from Synthesis GasProducts from Bio-oil
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve corn wet milling facilities using corn grain feedstock by
2008
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve corn dry milling facilities using corn grain feedstock by
2008
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
utilize agricultural residue feedstocks in existing or new
facilities by 2009
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
utilize perennial crops in existing or new facilities by 2012
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve pulp & paper mill facilities and/or produce
additional products from wood by 2012
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to improve forest products mill
facilities and/or produce additional products by 2012
Linkage to Linkage to existing existing
biorefineriesbiorefineries
Strategy and Pathways –Intermediate to Long Term
ThermochemicalR&D
FeedstockR&D
BiochemicalR&D
ProductsR&D
IntegratedBiorefinery
Corn Wet Mill Improvements
Corn Dry Mill Improvements
Agricultural Residue
Processing
Energy Crops
Pulp & Paper Mill
Improvements
Forest Products Mill
Improvements
Corn
Other Grains
Corn StoverWheat StrawRice Straw
Perennial GrassesWoody Crops
Mill WastesWood
Mill WastesWood
Residual Starch ConversionFiber Conversion
New Fractionation Process
Residual Starch ConversionDDG Conversion
New Fractionation Process
Biomass Sugar Production
New Fractionation Process
Biomass Sugar Production
New Fractionation Process
New Fractionation Process for
hemicellulose removal
Fiber Conversion
DDG Conversion
Biomass & Lignin Gasification
Biomass & Lignin Gasification
Black Liquor, Biomass, & Lignin Gasification
Biomass Gasification& Pyrolysis
New Products fromC5/C6 Sugars
Products from Oils
New Products from
C5/C6 Sugars
Products from C5/C6 Sugars, Lignin, Synthesis Gas, New
Process Intermediates
Products from C5/C6 Sugars, Lignin, Synthesis Gas, New
Process Intermediates
Products from C5/C6 SugarsProducts from BL Syngas
Products from Synthesis GasProducts from Bio-oil
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve corn wet milling facilities using corn grain feedstock by
2008
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve corn dry milling facilities using corn grain feedstock by
2008
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
utilize agricultural residue feedstocks in existing or new
facilities by 2009
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
utilize perennial crops in existing or new facilities by 2012
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve pulp & paper mill facilities and/or produce
additional products from wood by 2012
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to improve forest products mill
facilities and/or produce additional products by 2012
Linkage to Linkage to existing existing
biorefineriesbiorefineries
11stst Generation Generation
BiorefineriesBiorefineries
Strategy and Pathways –Intermediate to Long Term
ThermochemicalR&D
FeedstockR&D
BiochemicalR&D
ProductsR&D
IntegratedBiorefinery
Corn Wet Mill Improvements
Corn Dry Mill Improvements
Agricultural Residue
Processing
Energy Crops
Pulp & Paper Mill
Improvements
Forest Products Mill
Improvements
Corn
Other Grains
Corn StoverWheat StrawRice Straw
Perennial GrassesWoody Crops
Mill WastesWood
Mill WastesWood
Residual Starch ConversionFiber Conversion
New Fractionation Process
Residual Starch ConversionDDG Conversion
New Fractionation Process
Biomass Sugar Production
New Fractionation Process
Biomass Sugar Production
New Fractionation Process
New Fractionation Process for
hemicellulose removal
Fiber Conversion
DDG Conversion
Biomass & Lignin Gasification
Biomass & Lignin Gasification
Black Liquor, Biomass, & Lignin Gasification
Biomass Gasification& Pyrolysis
New Products fromC5/C6 Sugars
Products from Oils
New Products from
C5/C6 Sugars
Products from C5/C6 Sugars, Lignin, Synthesis Gas, New
Process Intermediates
Products from C5/C6 Sugars, Lignin, Synthesis Gas, New
Process Intermediates
Products from C5/C6 SugarsProducts from BL Syngas
Products from Synthesis GasProducts from Bio-oil
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve corn wet milling facilities using corn grain feedstock by
2008
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve corn dry milling facilities using corn grain feedstock by
2008
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
utilize agricultural residue feedstocks in existing or new
facilities by 2009
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
utilize perennial crops in existing or new facilities by 2012
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to
improve pulp & paper mill facilities and/or produce
additional products from wood by 2012
Systems-level demonstration & validation of technologies to improve forest products mill
facilities and/or produce additional products by 2012
Linkage to Linkage to existing existing
biorefineriesbiorefineries
11stst Generation Generation
BiorefineriesBiorefineriesMature Mature
vision of vision of biorefineriesbiorefineries
Targets
Integrated Biorefinery Platform Targets
• Biorefinery Modeling (Task 1.1)• Estimated Completion Date: June, 2006
• Individual models nearing completion
• Back Casting current Dry Mill Industry (Task 1.2)• Completion Date: September, 2006
• Subcontract will be in place by January, 2006
• Bioindustry Transition Modeling (Task 2)• Estimated Completion Date: December, 2007
• Subcontract will be in place by December, 2005
Bioindustry Transition Model
Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D
and Analysis platforms
Bioindustry Transition Model
Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D
and Analysis platforms
Market driven model with components
analyzing distribution, end use
and oil industry drivers
Bioindustry Transition Model
Inputs from Multiple labs across all R&D
and Analysis platforms
Market driven model with components
analyzing distribution, end use
and oil industry drivers
Prototype model completed for
RBAEF project using STELLA Dynamic Modeling Software
biomass program
Validating The Model
‘Back-cast’ the historical growth of the existing corn ethanol industry to find the major contributing factors to it’s successful development
Use real data from the current ethanol industry to build the assumptions for the future
Opportunity to refine our understanding of investor
behavior
Task 1.2
Building the Future by Investigating the Past
Building the Future by Investigating the Past
biomass program
Feedstock Logistics
INL and ORNL developed strategies for emerging large-scale feedstock collection and
delivery infrastructure
Utilizes outputs from IBSAL and POLYSIS
Sophisticated modeling of an evolving feedstock collection and distribution system that
builds off existing infrastructure
Feedstock Logistics
Feedstock Logistics
OAK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORYU. S. DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
Transitional Applications for Corn
Dry Mill evolution through technology innovation and
process integration
Identify cost of introduction
Task 1.1
Interim Milestone completed March, 2005
biomass program
1st Generation Biorefineries
Lignocellulose in a Corn Ethanol Plant
Transition to lignocellulose for ethanol and fuels production
Multiple feedstock collection and delivery infrastructure
Production of biofuels, CHP
Selective Thermal Processing leading to Consolidated
Bioprocessing
Lignocellulosic Biorefineries
biomass program
Fuel Distribution and Use
Liquid Transportation-Fuels
Market Penetration
Vehicle fleet turnover dynamics
Ethanol market penetration effects on flexible vehicle demand
Ethanol distribution infrastructure
biomass program
The Oil Industry
Effect of constrained gasoline production capacity
due to the lack of new refinery capacity over the
past thirty years
20 yr oil price projections based on U.S. DOE EIA
forecasts
Relationships between cost of crude oil and cost of
gasoline
Hubbert’s Peak effect
What can we learn from the current transportation fuels industry?
subsidized
feedstock cost\ton
~
feedstock subs per ton
feedstock cost\ton
feedstock price
feedstock transport
cost\ton
Feedstock
Captive
Feedstock
Market Price
Feedstock
Free
industry input
capacity ton per yr
plant input capacity
tons per day Transport Charge
Days per Year Online
Fraction Surround
Land in SW
Miles to Plant
acres per sq mi
$ per ton mile
YPA Overall
Winding Factor
Fixed Transport $ per ton
Net Feedstock Plant Gate Cost
Modeling Platform
• Input from all Platform Analysis areas & Industry
• Prototype created in RBAEF Project• User Friendly• STELLA by ISEE Systems • Construct/Simulate/Communicate
Dynamic Systems Modeling
Future Work
The Integrated Biorefinery Platform
Bioindustry Transition Modeling
• Biorefinery Modeling will be competed in FY06
• Back-Casting the current ethanol will be completed in FY06
• Bioindustry Transition Model (BTM) will be completed near end of FY07
• The following (BTM) tasks should be completed by the end of FY06
• Fuel and End Use (5 & 6)
• Back-casting Current industry (1)
• Feedstock Supply Infrastructure (2)
biomass program
Summary• Multiple DOE Laboratories involved in Project
• Consolidates outputs from Sugar, Thermochemical, Feedstocks and Products platform analyses into a market driven decision making model
Providing the vision to a fully developed bio-liquid transportation fuels industry.
• Industry Driven
• Gov’t Support
• Academia
Working Together
