2006 NEBRASKA PROFILE

January 25, 20062006 Nebraska Profile 1

2006 NEBRASKA PROFILE

Fourth Edition State, Nine Regions, and 93 Counties Demographic Change in the State Economic Influences at Work Housing Statistics, Trends, & Forecast Summary of Findings

2006 Nebraska Profile January 25, 20062

Nine Regions and 93 Counties


Demographics: Racial Minorities still growing quickly Growth of Hispanics is strong as well

2000 2004 % Change

White 1,585,617 1,609,056 1.5% Black 70,043 74,815 6.8% All Other 55,603 63,343 13.9% Total 1,711,263 1,747,214 2.1%

Hispanic 94,425 119,975 27.1%

Nebraska Population by Race

Race

Ethnicity


Demographics: Losing population < 20 years old Seem to be gaining 20-24 and 55-64

Age 2000 Census Jul-04 % ChangeUnder 20 504,336 488,597 -3.12%20-24 120,331 136,736 13.63%25-34 223,273 229,273 2.69%35-54 489,588 493,630 0.83%55-64 141,540 167,175 18.11%65 or Older 232,195 231,803 -0.17%

Total 1,711,263 1,747,214 2.10%

Population Change by Age


Demographics: North and South declining Only urbanized counties growing:

Urban = Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy

Region 2000 Census July 2003 Est July 2004 Est Change North 390,293 385,444 383,095 -7,198 South 484,499 483,470 484,489 -10 Urban 836,471 868,561 879,630 43,159 Nebraska 1,711,263 1,737,475 1,747,214 35,951

2000 Census, 2003 and 2004 Population Estimates Regional Population Change


Demographics: Census Bureau estimates by county


Demographics: Fewer people leaving Nebraska Significant international migration

April 2000 to July 2005

Starting Population 1,711,263 Births 132,394 Deaths 80,290 Natural Increase 52,104 International Migration 22,199 Domestic Migration -26,206 Net Migration -4,007 Residual -573July 1, 2005 Population 1,758,787

CENSUS BUREAU POPULATION ESTIMATESBIRTHS, DEATHS, AND MIGRATION: 2000-2005


Demographics: IRS net migration data for Nebraska

Nebraska Net Migration by Zone2000 through 2004

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Nu

mb

er

of

Pe

rso

ns

North South Urban


Demographics: IRS returns and exemptions for Nebraska

Year Net Returns Total Returns Exemptions1998 -3,453 600,068 1,370,6211999 -2,950 608,292 1,380,3252000 -3,537 617,254 1,394,2642001 -4,111 622,009 1,399,1452002 -3,144 626,689 1,404,3272003 -1,507 630,009 1,415,0702004 -2,479 630,593 1,418,198

IRS Returns and Exemptions


Demographics: DMV data indicates otherwise

Quarterly Net Migration In NebraskaDrawn From Driver's License Exchanges 2001 - 2004

1,477

625447

1,368

865

1,5001,367

543

-359-605

-18 -180

743

274

1,8511,674

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

01.1 01.2 01.3 01.4 02.1 02.2 02.3 02.4 03.1 03.2 03.3 03.4 04.1 04.2 04.3 04.4Year and Quarter

Ne

t D

rive

r's

Lic

en

se

s


Demographics:

Positive change strong in working years

Age 2001 2002 2003 200414-25 -1,222 1,081 1,358 36226-45 251 2,400 3,303 1,34746-65 -290 514 709 64966+ 95 282 375 357

Missing 4 -2 . -1Total -1,162 4,275 5,745 2,714

Nebr. Department of Motor Vehicles - Net ExchangedIndicators of Migration


Demographics: Positive change in South and Urban Urban has most of increase

Region 2001 2002 2003 2004 North -325 614 583 -215 South -193 781 1,236 339 Urban -616 2,867 3,960 2,619 Out of State -28 13 -34 -29 Nebraska -1,162 4,275 5,745 2,714

Driver's License Net of Exchanged and Surrendered Licenses


Demographics: PUMS data shows domestic migration

Where From… 2000 2001 2003 2004 Nebraska Intrastate 234,529 234,081 224,061 212,385 Domestic Interstate 32,606 35,868 63,717 50,285Total U.S. 267,135 269,949 287,778 262,670International 11,238 8,149 3,518 10,358Total Migration 278,373 278,098 291,296 273,028

Population Migration(Place of Residence One Year Ago)PUMS 2000, 2001, 2003, AND 2004


Demographics:

PUMS data shows

where people came

from in 2004

State 2004California 7,011Iowa 6,944Texas 5,573Kansas 4,139Florida 3,538Colorado 3,004Other States 20,076Nebraska 212,385Total 262,670

Domestic Migration


Demographics: PUMS data shows international declined

over last couple of years, up in 2004

Region 2000 2001 2003 2004Europe & Eastern Europe 450 1,846 477 2,587Central & South America 6,522 1,382 1,207 1,161Africa 422 687 233 1,854Asia 3,844 3,636 1,283 3,893Middle East . 288 108 346North America/Australia . 310 210 517Total 11,238 8,149 3,518 10,358

Population Migration - International


Economics: Employment has expanded moderately

Nebraska Full and Part-Time Employment1969-2004

650,000

750,000

850,000

950,000

1,050,000

1,150,000

1,250,000

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03

Year

Em

plo

yme

nt:

Jo

bs


Economics: Nebraska business establishments

Nebraska Business Establishments1986-2003

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

50,000

52,000

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03

Year

Bu

sin

es

s E

sta

blis

hm

en

ts


Economics: Nebraska vs U.S. unemployment rates

Nebraska vs U.S. Unemployment Rates1978-2004

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Rat

e

Nebraska Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate


Economics: Nebraska unemployment rates by Zone

Nebraska Unemployment Rates by Zone2000 - 2004

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Un

em

plo

yme

nt

Rat

e

North South Urban


Economics: Income – earned income per job

Nebraska vs U.S. Real Earnings per Job2004 Dollars

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03

Re

al A

vera

ge

$

pe

r Jo

b

Earnings per Job in Nebraska Earnings per Job in U.S.


Economics: Industries with highest rates of pay Farm earnings up 154% 02-03, 8.5% 04

NAICS Categories Emp Earnings Per JobManagement of companies 14,837 1,015,771 68,462Information 23,373 1,259,267 53,877Transportation & warehousing 55,803 2,965,650 53,145Wholesale Trade 43,998 2,238,090 50,868Mining 2,520 127,575 50,625

Employment and Real Earnings per JobNebraska: BEA 2004


Economics: Per capita income keeps pace with U.S.

Nebraska vs U.S. Real per Capita Income2004 Dollars

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03

Re

al p

er

Cap

ita

Inco

me

Nebraska U.S.


Economics: Personal Bankruptcies continue upward

Nebraska Personal Bankruptcies1987 Through September 2005

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05

Pe

rso

nal

Ban

kru

ptc

ies


Economics: Nebraska Poverty Rates

Poverty RatesNebraska and U.S. - 1998-2003

8

9

10

11

12

13

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Po

ve

rty

Ra

te

U.S. Nebraska


Housing: Housing Production: SF and MF

Total Dwelling Units Permitted in Nebraska1980 through 2004

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

Year

Pe

rmit

s I

ss

ue

d

Single-family Units Total Units


Housing:With pop down, housing is up everywhere

Region 2000 2004 Change North 170,412 174,106 3,694 South 210,386 216,133 5,747 Urban 341,870 367,504 25,634 Nebraska 722,668 757,743 35,075

2000 Census and 2004 Housing Estimates Housing Unit Change by Zone


Housing: Average prices for single-family homes

Zone 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 North 66,996 67,588 72,693 74,639 78,653 83,181 South 67,630 68,191 73,377 77,460 81,279 88,307 Urban 114,143 113,358 128,058 129,124 138,363 144,876 Nebraska 91,617 91,441 102,885 105,570 113,329 119,116

Single-Family Homes by Zone and Fiscal YearAverage Sales Prices in PA&T Data


Housing: Prices by County from PA&T


Housing: Size and market values per square foot

Year Built Average $ Square feet $/Sq FtBefore 1930 56,100 1,234 45.451931-1960 79,910 1,113 71.81961-1970 103,794 1,281 81.011971-1980 114,911 1,392 82.541981-1990 141,019 1,526 92.391991-2004 174,689 1,694 103.11Average 104,114 1,351 77.05

Average Price, Size, and Unit CostSingle-Family Homes


Housing: Value of Single Family Construction

Value of Single-Family Construction1980 through 2004 $138,650

60

80

100

120

140

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04

Re

al

Va

lue

, $

1,0

00

s


Housing: Nebraska Association of Realtors

Nebraska Association of Realtors Average Home Sales Prices

1998 through August 2005

111,442

119,552

129,499131,867

139,109142,859

156,135

123,780

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

150,000

160,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Ave

rag

e N

om

inal

Pri

ce


Housing: OFHEO – Housing Price Index

OFHEO Housing Price IndexNebraska vs U.S. 1975 through 2005: 1980 = 100

251

373

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05

Pri

ce

In

de

x

Nebraska U.S.


Housing: Results from November 2005 survey Statewide vacancy rate up from 5.9%

Zone Srvys. Units 2002 2003 2004 2005 North 287 6,474 6.3 8.9 9.3 8.4 South 367 12,580 5.3 9.8 7.2 8.8 Urban 304 63,197 6.0 5.1 6.1 6.4 Nebraska 958 82,251 5.9 6.1 6.6 6.9

Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys2005 Survey Vacancy Rates


Housing: Degree of need for new construction 1 = no need; 5 = extreme need

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 North 131 43 46 21 23 South 135 54 73 33 35 Urban 164 39 40 13 13 Nebraska 430 136 159 67 71

Nebraska Rental Vacancy SurveysDegree of Need for New Units


Housing: Degree of need for new construction

Nebraska Rental SurveyNeed for New Rental Construction

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 2 3 4 5

Pe

rce

nt

Dis

trib

uti

on

2002 2003 2004 2005


Housing: Asked for need for rehab as well Extreme need occurring more frequently

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 North 32 38 74 55 27 South 53 45 90 50 56 Urban 42 18 95 36 27 Nebraska 127 101 259 141 110

Degree of Need for Rehab of Existing Units

Nebraska Rental Vacancy Surveys


Housing:Sentiment is moderate need for rehab

Nebraska Rental SurveyNeed for Rehabilitation of Existing Units

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1 2 3 4 5

Pe

rce

nt

Dis

trib

uti

on

2002 2003 2004 2005


Summary of Findings:

Population declines in rural areas Pop growth in cities and east Nebr. is more racially diverse Nebr. employment grows modestly Income rises Homeownership continues rising


Summary of Findings:

SF housing production high Homeowner prices rise everywhere Problems persist for low-income persons Emerging weakness in some rental markets


Summary of Findings:Changing characteristics and attributes

of market present opportunities to

realign housing resources - urban/rural Upgrades and preservation Lot production New construction in selected markets

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2006 NEBRASKA PROFILE

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