0 1 :

0 2 :

0 3 :

0 4 :

0 5 :

0 6 :

0 7 :

0 8 :

0 9 :

1 0 :

1 1 :

1 2 :

1 3 :

1 4 :

1 5 :

1 6 :

1 7 :

1 8 :

1 9 :

2 0 :

M E G AT R E N D S

D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E

I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E

H E A LT H T H R I V E S

W O M E N O N T H E R I S E

C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y

N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y

D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E

B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !

U B I Q U I T O U S I N T E L L I G E N C E

T E C H N O L O G Y C O N V E R G E N C E

G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0

K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D E C O N O M Y

B U S I N E S S E C O S Y S T E M S

C H A N G E S I N T H E W O R K W O R L D

N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S

E N E R G Y A N D R E S O U R C E R E V E R S A L

C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S

U R B A N I S AT I O N

N E W P O L I T I C A L W O R L D O R D E R

G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y

Megatrends are long-term processes of t ransformation with a broad scope and a

dramatic impact . They are considered to be powerful factors which shape future

markets. There are three characteristics in which megatrends differ from other trends:

TIME HORIZON

Megatrends can be observed over decades. Quant i tat ive, empir ica l ly unambi-

guous indicators are avai lable for the present . They can be projected – with high

probabi l i t ies – at least 15 years into the future.

REACH

Megatrends impact comprehensively on a l l regions, and result in mult id imensi -

onal t ransformations of a l l societa l subsystems, whether in pol i t ics , society, or

economy. Their precise features vary according to the region in quest ion.

INTENSITY OF IMPACT

Megatrends impact powerful ly and extensively on a l l actors, whether i t is go-

vernments, indiv iduals and their consumption patterns, or corporat ions and

their strategies.

The term “Megatrends” was coined by John Naisbi t t , who, 25 years ago, publ is -

hed a book of the same t i t le . “Megatrends” presented 10 far - reaching develop-

ments which painted a picture of our future at the turn of the mi l lennium. The

book became a bestsel ler and made Naisbi t t a t ra i lb lazer for socia l and eco-

nomic t rend research. With hindsight , one has to acknowledge graciously that

his analyses did not lack the necessary v is ion. He coined, e .g . , the expression

“Global isat ion”, recognised every indiv idual ’s increasing responsibi l i ty for his

own l i fe , envis ioned the information and mult i -opt ion society, and real ised how

decentra l , networking structures would dominate the new mil lennium.

T H E T R E N D T O W A R D S

M E G AT R E N D S

Today, megatrends have become a re levant strategic issue in many corporate

headquarters . S iemens, to name a s igni f icant example, has stressed the impor-

tance of megatrends for i ts business on var ious occasions. Driven by i ts CEO,

Klaus Kle infe ld, S iemens has started to re-a l ign i ts business f ie lds focussing on

the megatrends demographic change and urbanisat ion. Only recent ly, Z_punkt

cooperated with Siemens’ Corporate Strategy department in creat ing a corporate

management report on the megatrends crucia l for the company.

Some megatrends, such as demographic change, heal th, or mobi l i ty, have found

a place on many agendas. Exper ience a lso shows, however, that businesses di f -

fer in their evaluat ion of speci f ic megatrends – their re lat ive strategic s igni f i -

cance being determined by a company’s focus on speci f ic markets , products,

and customers. With i ts new global maxim “The Consumer Decides”, Nike is

recognis ing a megatrend which we descr ibe as a new phase of indiv idual izat ion.

General E lectr ic , on the other hand, focuses on s imi lar issues as i ts compet i tor

Siemens, showcased by i ts new “Ecomaginat ion” advert is ing campaign.

How can companies create value f rom megatrends? Valuable insights wi l l only

be gained i f information on a megatrend is t ranslated into a company’s very

own context , and into future innovat ion f ie lds, markets , and products. Not the

t rend as such is of interest , but i ts strategic impl icat ions. I f you want to prepare

yoursel f in t ime for the future markets emerging f rom megatrends, Z_punkt can

of fer a wide range of t r ied-and-tested, business-speci f ic approaches: Whether

i t ’s lectures or one-day inhouse workshops, ident i f icat ion of strategic innovat i -

on f ie lds or new business f ie lds.

T H E T R E N D T O W A R D S

M E G AT R E N D S

M E G AT R E N D S

0 1 : D E M O G R A P H I C

C H A N G E

In the West, ageing and shrinking populations

In the developing countries, a baby boom

Increasing migration streams

Demographic shifts

.

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

.

.

.

.

0 2 : I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N

R E A C H E S

A N E W S TA G E

Individualism, a global phenomenon

Changing relationship patterns: Few strong,

many loose relationships

From mass markets to micro markets

Self-sufficiency and DIY-economics

M E G AT R E N D S

0 3 : H E A LT H T H R I V E S

Increasing health awareness and higher

personal responsibility

Health tech – health style

New foodstuffs (functional food, genetically

modified food, novel food)

New converging markets (food, pharma-

ceuticals, drugs, cosmetics)

.

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

0 4 : W O M E N

O N T H E R I S E

Women are integrated into the working world

“Female” soft skills become more important

Participation as market actors: Defining

influence on product and service standards

Work-life balance

.

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

0 5 : C U LT U R A L

D I V E R S I T Y

Plural ways of life between tradition

and today

Value systems compete globally

Emergence of hybrid culture

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

0 6 : N E W P AT T E R N S

O F M O B I L I T Y

Globally, mobility increases

Barriers to mobility increase

Transport infrastructures are

upgraded/extended

New vehicle concepts – new drive technologies

.

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

0 7 : D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E

Web 2.0: New media find their way into our

everyday lives

Digital lifestyle: Virtual reality becomes real

Virtual business worlds

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

0 8 : B I O M I M I C R Y, O R ,

L E A R N I N G F R O M

N AT U R E

Biology becomes the leading science

Renaissance of bionics

Swarm intelligence: New forms of social

organisation

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

0 9 : U B I Q U I T O U S

I N T E L L I G E N C E

IT-revolution continues

Ambient Intelligence: New interfaces,

new surfaces

Neuro sciences, artificial intelligence, and

robotics

Transparent society: Surveillance and control

.

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

1 0 : T E C H N O L O G Y

C O N V E R G E N C E

Information and nanotechnology to be key

drivers of convergence

Stimuli in many areas of application (medical

science, energy, materials)

NBIC-convergence

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

.

.

.

.

1 1 : G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0

Shift to Asia and a new role for the West

Global strategies, customised to places and

regions

Emergence of a global middle class

Globalised Flow of Capital

M E G AT R E N D S

1 2 : K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D

E C O N O M Y

Education and learning as a basis

Innovation as a key driver and

competition factor

New global knowledge elite – the creative class

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

1 3 : B U S I N E S S

E C O S Y S T E M S

Open systems and networks: Limits of

industries, markets, and businesses dissolve

New value-adding chains (customer integra-

tion, coopetition)

Business Mashups: Interfaces give rise to

new markets

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

1 4 : C H A N G E S I N T H E

W O R K W O R L D

Advances in automation (from the sector of

production to the sectors of service and

knowledge)

Highly flexible working practices (anytime,

anywhere)

Flexible, interactive work structures

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

1 5 : NEW CONSUMPTION

PATTERNS

The Third World participates in economic

wealth (Bottom of the Pyramid)

Catch-up luxury in China, India, and Russia

Sustainable consumption in the West

(LOHAS, Eco Chic, Moral Commerce)

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

1 6 : ENERGY AND

RESOURCE REVERSAL

Strategic resource scarcities (fossil

fuels, freshwater, minerals, metals)

Use of alternative sources of energy and

renewable resources

Revolution in energy efficiency

Decentralised energy supply

.

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

.

.

.

.

1 7 : CLIMATE CHANGE

AND ENVIRONMENTAL

IMPACTS

CO2-discharges and global rise of temperatures

Increase of environmental problems in

emerging and developing countries

Clean technologies

Corporate responsibility increases

M E G AT R E N D S

1 8 : U R B A N I S AT I O N

Megacities grow strongly

Development of adapted infrastructure

solutions

New forms of residence, living, and

participation

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

China and India join the ranks

of world powers

Crisis of Western democracies

Russia’s renaissance

Africa awakes

1 9 : N E W P O L I T I C A L

W O R L D O R D E R

.

.

.

.

M E G AT R E N D S

2 0 : G R O W I N G T H R E AT S

T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L

S E C U R I T Y

Global risk society

Festering cultural conflicts and failed states

Global terrorism

Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction

.

.

.

.

I f you are interested in megatrends, p lease contact

Klaus Burmeister, our Managing Director (burmeister@z-punkt .de) , or

Holger Glockner, our Director Foresight Consult ing (g lockner@z-punkt .de) .

Z_punkt is a consult ing f i rm for strategy and innovat ion. We are experts in

Corporate Foresight , i .e . , in t ranslat ing trend and future research into the day-

to-day work of strategic management. S ince 1997, we have been support ing

businesses and publ ic inst i tut ions in Foresight Research and Consult ing.

Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company

Anna-Schneider-Steig 2 • Rheinauhafen

50678 Köln

0049 - (0)221 - 355 534 - 0

http://www.z-punkt .de

glockner@z-punkt .de

watkins@z-punkt .de

C O N TA C T

A B O U T Z _ P U N K T

0 1 :

0 2 :

0 3 :

0 4 :

0 5 :

0 6 :

0 7 :

0 8 :

0 9 :

1 0 :

1 1 :

1 2 :

1 3 :

1 4 :

1 5 :

1 6 :

1 7 :

1 8 :

1 9 :

2 0 :

D E M O G R A P H I C C H A N G E

I N D I V I D U A L I S AT I O N R E A C H E S A N E W S TA G E

H E A LT H T H R I V E S

W O M E N O N T H E R I S E

C U LT U R A L D I V E R S I T Y

N E W P AT T E R N S O F M O B I L I T Y

D I G I TA L L I F E S T Y L E

B I O M I M I C R Y, O R , L E A R N I N G F R O M N AT U R E !

U B I Q U I T O U S I N T E L L I G E N C E

T E C H N O L O G Y C O N V E R G E N C E

G L O B A L I S AT I O N 2 . 0

K N O W L E D G E - B A S E D E C O N O M Y

B U S I N E S S E C O S Y S T E M S

C H A N G E S I N T H E W O R K W O R L D

N E W C O N S U M P T I O N P AT T E R N S

E N E R G Y A N D R E S O U R C E R E V E R S A L

C L I M AT E C H A N G E A N D E N V I R O N M E N TA L I M P A C T S

U R B A N I S AT I O N

N E W P O L I T I C A L W O R L D O R D E R

G R O W I N G T H R E AT S T O I N T E R N AT I O N A L S E C U R I T Y

M E G AT R E N D S

Copyright Z_punkt GmbH The Foresight Company Köln Karlsruhe Berlin 2008

Graphics and Design: www.infomationdesign.de