2008-06-14 Copyright Hallberg Independent Research The melanoma epidemic Örjan Hallberg Hallberg...

2008-06-14Copyright Hallberg Independent

Research

The melanoma epidemic

Örjan Hallberg

Hallberg Independent ResearchPolkavägen 14B

142 65 TrångsundSweden

http://hir.nu


Research

The purpose

To present facts and models that may shed light on the etiology of melanoma.


Research

Problem solving

What is the problem?When did it start?Where? (world, country, body)

How large is the problem?Can it be modeled?Can we do something about it?


Research

The number of deaths due to melanoma and lung cancer started to increase 1955

0

50

100

150

200

250

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350

400

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Me

lan

om

a d

ea

ths

pe

r y

ea

r

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Lu

ng

de

ath

s p

er

ye

ar

Melanoma Mel pre-55 Lung


Research

The accumulated melanoma risk over time is the same in the four countries analysed.

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

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0,7

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0 10 20 30 40

Time (years)

Ac

c.

inc

ide

nc

e (

%)

USA Norway Sweden Denmark


Research

Deaths, new cases, FM roll-out and Charter travels over time in Sweden

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Nu

mb

ers

re

late

d t

o r

ea

din

gs

in 1

98

8

Deaths Inc Acc FM Charter


Research

Counties with yet no FM radio continued with a stable and low melanoma mortality

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Year rel FM start

Mo

rta

lity

[1

/10

0 0

00

]

Pre FM Post FM


Research

Location of nevi and melanoma on the body

0 50 100 150

Feet

Lower legs

Thighs

Abdomen+buttocks

Chest+back

Arms

Head

Dots/unit area


Research

Melanoma incidence for women in Norway. Head and rest of body.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Inci

den

ce A

SI

(1/1

00,0

00) Women RoB Women Head


Research

Some cancers correlate with melanoma in Swedish counties while leukemia does not

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5

Melanoma incidence 1/10 000

Inci

den

ce 1

/10

000

Prostate Bladder Lung Breast Leukaemia Colon

Melanoma, diabetes and FM


Research


Research

Melanoma incidence appears to follow the FM-transmitter densities in the country


Research

Reported melanoma rates and FM transmitter power density in Norway


Research

Areas covered by 3 or more main FM transmitters are colored read to compare with the melanoma map


Research

The melanoma incidence in the 289 communes in Sweden relates to the number of covering main FM-transmitters

R2 = 0.417p<0,000001

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5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 2 4 6

Transmitter density

Me

l in

c m

(1

/10

0 0

00

)


Research

Melanoma during the first and the second half of the 20th century

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10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100

Age (years)

Inci

den

ce (

1/10

0,00

0)

Born 1960 Born 1955 Born 1950

Born 1945 Born 1940 Denmark 1943-1947

Norw ay 1953-1955 Sw eden 1958 USA 1945


Research

Model 1 - repair of annual damages

The natural repair rate is fast enough to guarantee a low melanoma rate and the survival of the population

But a reduced repair rate will allow damages to get old enough to cause an increasing melanoma risk.


Research

The reduced repair rate (R3) model was tested for 3 countries

Natural repair rate up to 1960, reduced rate thereafter

Data from Sweden, Norway and the USA were analyzed


Research

Best fit to reported age-standardized rates using the R3 model for Sweden


Research

Reported and calculated age-specific melanoma incidence in Sweden

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Calendar year

Inci

den

ce (

1/10

0,00

0)

27 37 47 57 67 77 82 87


Research

The incidence for those born 1900-1920 in Sweden. Reported and calculated data

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20

40

60

80

100

120

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Inc

ide

nc

e (

1/1

00

00

0)

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Inci

den

ce (

1/10

0 00

0)

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920


Research

Old people show increasing incidence, young people don’t!

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Inci

den

ce (

1/10

0,00

0)

27 37 77 82 87


Research

This means ...

Young age groups have stabilized since long time back

Older age groups still have about 10-20 years to go before they stabilize

The reduced repair rate model fits reported data very well


Research

Can increased sun-tanning habits explain the data?


Research

The model is used again:

Natural repair rate (as reported before 1958)

Assume increasing sun-tanning habits from 1930 to 1980, stable thereafter.

Increase sun-tanning to best fit age-standardized rates.


Research

Age-standardized rates using the sun damage model for Sweden. Best fit at 10 times increase of sun-damages.


Research

Calculated age-specific melanoma incidence does not fit reported data.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Calendar year

Inci

den

ce (

1/10

0,00

0)

27 37 47 57 67 77 82 87


Research

Melanoma and breast cancer are more common on the left side of the body - Why?

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

New

cas

es p

er y

ear

Women Right Women Left


Research

Resonance effects from FM

The body is in resonance (half wave resonance) at frequencies around 100 MHz. Half wave resonance gives a current maximum in the middle of the structure.

An incident wave and the reflected wave will cancel close to the metal springs in the mattress, max field ¼ wavelength above.


Research

So...

If you sleep to the right - you may get more cancer to the left…

And most people sleep for longer times on the right side to avoid the heart beats


Research

What about other cancers?

Sun-shine hypothesis: Sunshine -> high melanoma, D-vitamins,

and thus low rates of other cancersR3 hypothesis:

A reduced repair rate -> high melanoma and high rates of other cancers as well

Let’s take a look at breast cancer e.g.


Research

Countries with high melanoma rates also have high breast cancer rates

R2 = 0,0085

R2 = 0,5146

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0,1 1 10 100

Melanoma incidence (1/100,000)

Bre

ast

can

cer

inc

(1/1

00,0

00) 100 MHz


Research

And cancer rates in general are related to high melanoma rates

R2 = 0,3008

R2 = 0,0258

0

50

100

150

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400

450

0,1 1 10 100

Melanoma incidence (1/100,000)

Can

cer

inci

den

ce (

1/10

0,00

0)

100 MHz


Research

Current explanations on cell level

An increased production of NO-radicals due to continuous EMF exposure will reduce the efficiency of the immune and cell repair system (U Warnke, 2005)

Depletion of cellular antioxidants is a prominent feature during melanoma pathogenesis (F Meyskens, 2004)


Research

Conclusions

The etiology of melanoma can better be explained by the reduced repair rate model than by the increased sun-tanning model.

Body-resonant radiation (FM) is associated with melanoma

Other cancers to analyze are breast cancer and lung cancer


Research

Thanks for your attention

http://hir.nu


Research

The group mean incidence is strongly related to the transmitter density

R2 = 0.9755p<0.000001

0

5

10

15

20

25

0 1 2 3 4 5

Transmitters

Inc

ide

nc

e (

1/1

00

,00

0)


Research

A reduced repair rate that fits data

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 20 40 60 80

Years after cell damage

Rem

ain

ing

fra

ctio

n o

f d

amag

ed c

ells

ali

ve

Natural state Disturbed state


Research

Only two parameters were adjusted to fit reported data; dispersions of melanoma risk and the repair rate

Sweden Norway USAMelanoma 0.46 / 100 0.48 / 100 0.50 / 100Disturbed repair 0.36 / 5 0.37 / 5 0.52 / 5Natural repair 0.20 / 5 0.20 / 5 0.20 / 5Onset year 1960 1960 1965


Research

Reported and calculated age-specific melanoma incidence in Norway

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Calendar year

Inci

den

ce (

1/10

0,00

0)

27 37 47 57 67 77 82 87


Research

Reported and modeled age-specific melanoma incidence in the USA

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Calendar year

Inci

den

ce (

1/10

0,00

0)

27 37 47 57 67 77 82 87


Research

… and for the USA


Research

What about those who lived in both halves of the 20th century?

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10

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100

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Inc

ide

ns

(1

/10

0 0

00

)

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920


Research

The melanoma incidence in Finland in 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000.

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2008-06-14 Copyright Hallberg Independent Research The melanoma epidemic Örjan Hallberg Hallberg...

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