2008 State of the Union Address Brainroom Briefing Book

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Table of Contents

Bush’s 2008 State of the Union – p. 3

Guests at 2008 State of the Union Speech – p. 6

Bush's State of Union Highlights – p. 8

Origins of the State of the Union Message – p. 9

Delivering the State of the Union – p. 9

Where and When Does the Ceremony Takes Place – p. 11

Shortest, Longest, and Average Length of the Address – p. 11

State of the Union - Delivery Time – p. 12

Most and Fewest Messages Delivered – p. 12

Milestones in Communications Technology – p. 12

Television Audience – p. 13

State of the Union Speeches Rarely Affect Presidential Support – p. 14

Name and Contents of the Address – p. 15

The Procedures Followed When the President Delivers the Message – p. 16

Precautions Taken at the Address to Assure Continuity of Government – p. 17

Opposition Response – p. 18

List of Past Opposition Responses – p. 18

Modern Reasons for Not Giving an Official State of the Union Message – p. 20

Endnotes – p. 21

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Bush’s 2008 State of the Union

• President George W. Bush is set to deliver his next State of the Union Address on January 28, 2008.

• It is widely believed that this will be his last address before leaving office on January 20, 2009, but assuming this is incorrect. Bush has the right to deliver either a written or oral State of the Union in the days immediately before leaving office in 2009. Presidents Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, Ford, and Carter chose to do this. Presidents Reagan, Bush, and Clinton, chose not to.1

• The top Democratic contenders, Sens. Clinton and Obama, are expected to be on hand Jan. 28. A leading Republican candidate, Sen. McCain, is staying in Florida, where Tuesday's Republican primary will shorten Bush's news cycle. 2

• Both the economy and Iraq will figure prominently in tonight's prime-time address, perhaps his last major opportunity to break through the din of the campaign trail and speak directly to the public.3

• The final State of the Union of the Bush presidency will be roughly split between domestic and foreign matters. The first half will focus on domestic policy and the second half on foreign policy. Expect few surprises and no big initiatives.4

Economic Stimulus

• On the economy, the president is seeking to steer the country away from a recession and has accelerated his efforts to develop economic stimulus legislation. His speech tonight will press Congress to complete work on the package, which features tax rebates and incentives for businesses to invest in facilities and equipment.5

• Bush will pressure Congress -- particularly the Senate, where he senses trouble -- to finish an economic stimulus package fast.

• He’s expected to praise the bipartisan deal that his administration brokered with House leaders. It would provide rebate checks to 117 million families and $50 billion in incentives for businesses to invest in new plants and equipment.

• Senators, however, want to add elements, like boosting food stamp or unemployment benefits, that they say will produce more meaningful change. The speech gives Bush a way to urge the Senate not to delay -- an idea that might resonate with millions of anxious families.

Earmarks

• In one new announcement, Bush will try to reduce the use of earmarks, a common Capitol Hill practice of slipping pet projects into spending bills. He will pledge to veto any spending bill that does not cut earmarks in half from levels spelled out in the current budget.

• Bush also plans to sign an executive order on Tuesday directing agencies to ignore any future earmarks that are not actually written into law, but rather tucked into obscure "report" language. The White House says the move will force Congress to make its spending more transparent.

• However, that plans leaves untouched the more than 11,700 earmarks totaling $16.9 billion that Congress approved last year.

• White House press secretary Dana Perino said Bush decided to restrict earmarks going forward -- not backward -- because Congress first deserved "a very clear indication of what he was going to do." 6

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Other Domestic Topics

• Bush also will call for housing reform, better health care and veterans' care, alternative energy development and renewal of the No Child Left Behind education law.

• The domestic section of Bush's speech will also remind the nation of his ideas on climate change, faith-based programs and stem cell research.

• Bush does not plan to turn the speech into a retrospective look at his time in office. 7

• Tonight's State of the Union address will look ahead to "unfinished business" that White House aides say can be completed with some goodwill from the Democratic-controlled Congress.8

• Perino said the speech “will identify potential areas of agreement with a Democratic Congress. And these areas of common ground include new policy proposals with realistic chances of enactment this year.”

• But Perino also made clear Bush would not bother negotiating with a Democratic Congress if he doesn’t need to, saying, “The president will mention policies that can be implemented through executive or administrative action without congressional involvement.”9

• Bush is expected to mention immigration reform, but Perino said, “he's not under any illusions that this Congress is going to actually act on comprehensive immigration reform.” 10

Terrorist Surveillance

• The president will discuss his program to permit surveillance of suspected terrorists.11

• Bush's language is expected to be tough when it comes to the extension of a law that allows surveillance of suspected terrorists. The current eavesdropping law, which allows government surveillance of phone calls and e-mails involving people in the United States, expires Friday. Bush is clashing with the Senate leadership over safeguards as well as legal immunity for telecommunications companies that helped the government spy on American citizens.

• The Senate is expected to take a key vote on the bill just hours before Bush speaks, so the White House may adjust the speech on the fly. Otherwise, the address is essentially locked down at roughly 40 minutes long, not counting interruptions for applause. 12

Iraq & Foreign Policy

• When he pivots to foreign matters, Bush will emphasize progress in Iraq, and repeat that troop withdrawals will happen when they won't undermine Iraq's success. 13

• On Iraq, his task for his final year is perhaps more daunting: After nearly five years of sectarian violence in Iraq, he wants to hand over a stable, functioning country to his successor. Aides said that Bush will tout progress over the past year in Iraq, where his troop buildup and counterinsurgency strategy helped reduce attacks by about 60 percent, even while he prepares Americans for a difficult year.

• Aides said Bush will not give answers about potential further troop reductions during the State of the Union speech, preferring to wait until he hears a recommendation from Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, this spring.14

• White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said Bush will again urge a reluctant Congress to fund the war in Iraq.

• “He will highlight recent successes in Iraq and the troops that are returning home without replacement as a result of that success,” she said. “He will call on Congress to make sure

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that our troops have what they need, when they need it, for the mission they’ve been asked to do.”15

• He will also comment on Iran, Middle East peace, the spread of democracy and the U.S.-led fight against disease and hunger in poorer nations.

Trade

• Bush will ask skeptical legislators not to spurn free trade, urging passage of a pact with Colombia.

• Winning passage of the proposed trade pact with Colombia, and also pending deals with Panama and South Korea, is a priority for Bush in his final months in office. The Latin American nation is among the U.S.'s closest allies in a region simmering with anti-American sentiments, as Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez uses his country's oil revenue to undermine U.S. influence.

• In his speech tonight, Bush is expected to portray Colombia, which is struggling to get beyond its history of narcotics trafficking and violence, as a strategic partner worthy of closer economic ties.16

Writing and Rehearsing the Speech

• Bush was not presented with a draft of the speech, Perino said, until barely two weeks before its delivery, while he was traveling this month in the Middle East -- suggesting a less-than-intensive approach by the president.17

• Tonight's State of the Union address had its origins in a conversation between the president and his small crew of speechwriters in late spring or early summer last year. As the speechwriters tell it, Bush called them into the Oval Office and told them he was interested in giving a speech about his governing philosophy.

• The theme was "trust people to make wise decisions and empower them with better options," said Marc Thiessen, a onetime aide to former senator Jesse Helms (R-N.C.). "There never was really an opportunity to give it," he added, "and when the State of the Union came around, it just seemed to fit perfectly."

• Thiessen is taking over as the chief White House speechwriter after being deputy to outgoing chief William McGurn, a onetime editorial writer for the Wall Street Journal who plans to return to journalism. The other key collaborator was Christopher Michel who will become the new speechwriting deputy, having worked his way up from being an unpaid intern after graduating from Yale five years ago.

• Planning for this year's speech began in earnest in December, and by Christmas the speechwriting shop had an outline ready for Bush. While McGurn headed off with Bush to the Middle East in early January, Thiessen and Michel came up with a draft and sent it out to the president.

• Since Bush's return, the speechwriters have often met with him twice a day to go over drafts, while also getting input from the rest of the White House staff. Last week, Bush started practicing the speech in the White House movie theater.18

• Perino said the President will have one more read through this morning at 10:30 a.m., he had one read through over the weekend on Sunday afternoon. The Monday morning read through is expect to be Bush’s last one. Perino said on Jan. 28, “The speech is locked down and he feels pretty comfortable with it.”19

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Guests at 2008 State of the Union Speech

Guests expected to sit with first lady Laura Bush during President Bush's State of the Union address on Monday

-- Jenna and Barbara Bush, the twin daughters of the president and the first lady. -- Lynne Cheney, wife of Vice President Dick Cheney. -- Lori Ball of Brookville, Ind., who has received help from the HOPE NOW alliance that helps people struggling to pay their mortgages. -- James "Jim" Barnard, the chief financial officer of Barnard Manufacturing in St. John's, Mich., a small business that stands to benefit from an economic stimulus package that the Bush administration supports. -- Staff Sgt. Craig Charloux of Bangor, Maine, who served in Iraq for 14 months and served as a leader of an Armored Reconnaissance Squadron. He was seriously wounded by two grenade blasts but was able to successfully complete the raid, in which eight al-Qaida operatives were killed. -- Former Sen. Bob Dole, R-Kan., and Donna Shalala, who served as Health and Human Services Secretary under President Clinton. The two co-chaired the commission charged with helping wounded military veterans get better health care and return to civilian life. -- Blanca Gonzalez, who lives in Miami, Fla. She is the mother of Normando Hernandez Gonzalez, a Cuban political prisoner arrested in 2003. He has been sentenced to 25 years in prison for reporting on the conditions of Cuba's state-run services and for criticizing the government's management. -- Steve Hadley, President Bush's national security adviser. -- Steve Hewitt, administrator of Greensburg, Kan., whose city was almost entirely destroyed by a tornado in May but has made progress in recovering. -- 1st Lt. Andrew Kinard of the United States Marine Corps, who was deployed to Iraq and lost both legs when he was struck by an improvised explosive device. He is an outpatient at Walter Reed Army Medical Center. -- Dr. Bill Krissoff of the United States Navy Medical Corps. He applied to the Navy Medical Corps after his oldest son, Marine 1st Lt. Nathan Krissoff, was killed in combat in Iraq. -- Tara Kunkel, an emergency room nurse in Indianapolis, Ind. One of her patients admitted herself to the hospital after reading an interview with Mrs. Bush in which the first lady described the signs and symptoms of hearts attacks in women. -- Senior Airman Diane Lopes, who entered the U.S. Army in 1991 and joined the Air Force Reserves in January 2003. Lopes was wounded by a rocket attack in Iraq and is undergoing treatment at Walter Reed Army Medical Center. -- Irvin Mayfield, a jazz musician from New Orleans, who has helped aid the city's recovery from Hurricane Katrina. -- Dan Meyer, assistant to President Bush for legislative affairs.

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-- Petty Officer Willard "Wil" Milam of the United States Coast Guard, who rescued four people in the Bering Sea in February 2007 after locating a life raft from a boat that sunk an hour earlier. His military decorations total nearly 45 awards. -- Alma Morales Riojas, president and CEO of MANA, the oldest national Latina membership organization in the United States. -- Tara D. Morrison, the superintendent of the African Burial Ground National Monument in New York City. -- Tatu Msangi, a 35-year-old single mother and registered nurse from Tanzania, and her 2-year-old daughter, Faith Mang'ehe. After discovering she was HIV-positive, Tatu enrolled in a program designed to prevent transmission from mother to child. She delivered a healthy daughter, Faith, who is HIV-free. -- Staff Sgt. Andrew Nichols of the United States Marine Corps. He has served multiple tours in Iraq and was able to return recently to the United States when his unit was successfully replaced by a division of the Iraqi army. -- Michelle Rhee, the new chancellor of the District of Columbia public school system. -- Dr. Thomas "Tom" M. Stauffer, who is president, CEO and professor of management at the American University of Afghanistan in Kabul. -- Kevin Sterne, a student at Virginia Tech, who was shot twice in the right leg during the massacre there last April. He was able to stop his own bleeding to help save his life, and he has since returned to Virginia Tech to pursue a master's degree. -- Eric Whitaker, a team leader of a provincial reconstruction team in Baghdad, Iraq.20

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Bush's State of Union Highlights

Some issues raised in President Bush's State of the Union addresses over the years and what became of them

"AXIS OF EVIL" In 2002, Bush branded Iraq, North Korea and Iran as members of an "axis of evil." Iraq: The U.S.-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, but the war goes on. About 160,000 U.S. troops are on the ground today. The current plan is to reduce U.S. forces in Iraq by roughly 30,000 troops by July. North Korea: International pressure has led North Korea to begin disabling a plutonium-producing reactor. But the North missed an end-of-2007 deadline to declare all its nuclear programs. Iran: A recent U.S. intelligence report said Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003; the U.S. and allies say Iran is still a threat and want tougher U.N. penalties against the country.

IRAQ In the run-up to the war in Iraq, Bush said in 2003 that Saddam had taken elaborate steps to build and keep weapons of mass destruction. No banned weapons were ever found in Iraq.

ECONOMY Bush said in 2002, "We will defeat this recession." Technically, the recession was over before Bush pledged to defeat it. The National Bureau of Economic Research said the last recession started in March 2001 and ended that November. Bush's $1.35 trillion in tax cuts in 2001 were credited with helping make the recession short and mild. Recession fears today are back and Bush is pushing a $150 billion economic recovery plan.

AIDS In 2003, Bush outlined a $15 billion plan for emergency AIDS relief in Africa, calling it a "work of mercy" that would save millions of lives. In May 2007, he announced plans to double that initial $15 billion commitment to $30 billion over the next five years.

SOCIAL SECURITY Bush pledged in 2005 to make changes to Social Security the top priority of his second term. His plan went nowhere in Congress.

IMMIGRATION Bush pushed Congress in several State of the Union speeches to overhaul the immigration law and set up a guest worker program for immigrants. The idea died, mostly because of opposition from Bush's own conservative base.

ENERGY Bush announced plan in 2007 to reduce dependence on foreign oil by cutting gasoline use by 20 percent by 2017. Last month, Bush signed energy legislation to bring more fuel-efficient vehicles into auto showrooms and require wider use of ethanol. Congress altered the president's proposal, but Bush applauded the measure.

Source: AP, “Bush's State of Union Highlights,” Jan. 28, 2008.

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Origins of the State of the Union Message

• The State of the Union Message is a communication from the President of the United States to Congress and the nation in which the chief executive reports on conditions in the United States and, sometimes, around the world, recommends a legislative program for the coming session of Congress, and frequently presents his views about and vision for the present and future.

• Article II, Section 3, clause 1 of the United States Constitution authorizes the State of the Union Message, stating: “He [the President] shall from time to time give to the Congress Information on the State of the Union, and recommend to their Consideration such measures as he shall judge necessary and expedient;”

• The message was generally known as “the President’s Annual Message to Congress” until well into the 20th century.

o Although some historians suggest that the phrase “State of the Union” emerged only after World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt’s 1934 message is identified in his papers as his “Annual Message to Congress on the State of the Union.”

o According to the Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives, it was known informally as the State of the Union Address from 1942 to 1946, and has been known “generally” by the same name since 1947.

Delivering the State of the Union

• President George Washington delivered the first regular annual message before a joint session of Congress, in New York, on January 8, 1790.21

o On a cold January morning, the President rode in a carriage drawn by six horses from his residence on Cherry Street in New York to Federal Hall for a joint meeting of the two bodies of Congress, the House of Representatives and the Senate.

o The President's focus, however, was on the very concept of union itself. Washington and his administration were concerned with the challenges of establishing a nation and maintaining a union.

o Aware of the need to prove the success of the "union of states," Washington included a significant detail in his speech. Instead of datelining his message with the name of the nation's capital, New York, Washington emphasized unity by writing "United States" on the speech's dateline.22

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• During the administrations of Presidents Washington and John Adams, the President customarily appeared before a joint session of Congress to deliver the address personally.

o Each house subsequently debated and approved official replies to the President’s message, which were then delivered personally to the President by delegations of Senators and Representatives.

• President Thomas Jefferson changed the procedure followed by his predecessors with his first annual message (December 8, 1801). His private secretary delivered copies of the message to both houses of Congress, to be read by clerks in the House and Senate.

o Jefferson’s change was intended to simplify a ceremony that he believed to be an aristocratic imitation of the British monarch’s Speech from the Throne, and thus unsuitable to a republic.

o Further, preparing a response in Congress consumed valuable time during short legislative sessions.

• Jefferson’s precedent was followed until April 8, 1913, when President Woodrow Wilson appeared before Congress to deliver personally a special message on tariff and bank reform.

o In 1913 Wilson let it be known that he did not expect a formal response from Congress: "I am very glad indeed to have this opportunity to address the two Houses directly and to verify for myself the impression that the President of the United States is a person, not a mere department of the Government hailing Congress from some isolated island of jealous power, sending messages, not speaking naturally and with his own voice - that he is a human being trying to cooperate with other human beings in a common service."23

o President Wilson is also widely credited with expanding the scope of the annual message, transforming it from a report on the activities of the executive departments into a blueprint for the President’s legislative program for the coming congressional session and year.

• Wilson subsequently delivered six of his annual messages in person (1913-1918); President Warren Harding, two (1921 and 1922); and President Calvin Coolidge, one (1923).

• President Herbert Hoover made no personal appearances before Congress.

• President Franklin Roosevelt established the personal appearance as a permanent tradition with his 1934 State of the Union Message, but he and several later chief executives also chose to deliver a written message in preference to a personal appearance on at least one occasion.24

o Presidents have occasionally sent a written Annual Message or State of the Union Address rather than deliver it in person.

o These include Presidents Woodrow Wilson (1919-1921), Calvin Coolidge (1924-1929), Herbert Hoover (1929-1933), Franklin Roosevelt (twice), Harry Truman (1946, 1953), Dwight Eisenhower (1956, 1961), Richard Nixon (1973), Jimmy Carter (1981), and Ronald Reagan (1989).

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Where and When Does the Ceremony Takes Place

• The State of the Union Message is now customarily delivered at the Capitol, in the chamber of the House of Representatives, before a joint session of both houses of Congress.

o A House concurrent resolution sets aside the day and time for a joint session “for receiving such communication as the President of the United States shall be pleased to make to them” and is passed by both the House and Senate.

• Prior to the move to the Capitol the Senate Chamber was often where the Annual Message was delivered by the president.

• The ratification of the 20th Amendment on January 23, 1933 changed the opening of Congress from early March to early January, affecting the delivery of the Annual Message.

o Until 1934, the Message was delivered every December.25

o Since 1934, messages have been delivered on a range of dates, between January 3 and February 2 of each year.

• Today, the annual State of the Union Message is usually delivered by the President at an evening joint session of Congress during the second, third, or fourth week of January.

o President Ronald Reagan’s State of the Union Address for 1986 was rescheduled because of the Challenger disaster that took place earlier in the day.

• Some Presidents have chosen not to deliver a State of the Union Message the year they were inaugurated, or, in some cases, in the January just prior to their departure from office.

• President Bush is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address on the evening of January 28, 2008 to Congress, the nation and a worldwide television and Internet audience.

o The 2008 address will mark the 219th Annual or State of the Union Message delivered by a President and the 75th delivered in person by the chief executive.

Shortest, Longest, and Average Length of the Address

• Most evidence on the length of State of the Union Messages is anecdotal, as comprehensive information has not been collected; for the record, however, President Washington’s first annual message was surely one of the shortest, comprising only 833 words.

o If contemporary speech delivery guidelines (which range from 115 to 175 words per minute) are used to calculate the length of time he spoke, Washington would have taken between four and seven minutes to deliver his first message.

o This estimate does not account for interruptions for any applause he may have received, although this was perhaps unlikely, given the solemnity attached to the proceedings at that time.

• According to various sources, President Harry Truman’s 1946 message was the longest to date, at over 25,000 words.

o This was a unique effort, however, as it combined both the State of the Union and Annual Budget Messages, and was not delivered personally by the President.

• Following Jefferson’s abandonment of personal delivery, annual messages tended to grow in length throughout the 19th century, often reaching more than 10,000 words, and became, in effect, an annual report from the executive branch to Congress.

o This trend was reversed by Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt’s return to the practice of personal delivery.

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• Today, the message tends to be measured in delivery time, rather than in the number of words it contains.26 (Bush’s 2007 address was 5,590 words)

State of the Union - Delivery Time

President Year Minutes to Deliver Interrupted by Applause

Bush 2007 49 minutes 61 times27 Bush 2006 51 minutes 60 times28 Bush 2005 53 minutes 61 times29 Bush 2004 54 minutes 71 times30 Bush 2003 60 minutes 77 times31 Bush 2002 48 minutes 76 times32

Clinton 2000 89 minutes 128 times33 Clinton 1999 77 minutes 95 times34 Clinton 1998 72 minutes 104 times35 Clinton 1997 60 minutes 69 times36 Clinton 1996 61 minutes 78 times37 Clinton 1995 81 minutes 96 times38 Clinton 1994 64 minutes 66 times39

Most and Fewest Messages Delivered

• The longest serving President, Franklin Roosevelt, holds the record for the most State of the Union Messages delivered—12—of which 10 were personal appearances before Congress.

• President Zachary Taylor submitted only one written annual message, in 1849.

• Two Presidents did not serve long enough to submit an annual message: William Henry Harrison, who died in 1841, 32 days after his inauguration, and James A. Garfield, who was assassinated in 1881 and served only 199 days.

o Prior to the 20th amendment, Congress did not assemble until December in most years, by which time both Harrison and Garfield had died.

Milestones in Communications Technology

• The address has gained great importance by providing a nationwide platform for the President.

• President Coolidge delivered the first annual message to be broadcast by radio, in 1923.

• President Truman’s 1947 State of the Union Message was the first to be broadcast by television.

• Free air time for the President’s message and the opposition response is currently provided as a public service by commercial, public broadcast, and cable networks.

• In a recent development, President George W. Bush’s 2002 address was the first to be made available as a live web cast on the world wide web from the White House web site.40

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Technology and the delivery of the Annual Messages and State of the Union Addresses:

First radio broadcast of Message: President Calvin Coolidge, 1923. First television broadcast of Message: President Harry Truman, 1947. First evening delivery of Message: President Lyndon Johnson, 1965. First live webcast on internet: President George W. Bush, 2002. First high definition television broadcast of Message, President George W. Bush, 2004.41 • The advent of mass electronic communications dramatically affected the format, audience,

and impact of the message.

• Commanding a steadily-growing audience of listeners and viewers, successive Presidents learned to use the occasion as an appeal to the nation: the message evolved from being a report to Congress to a direct address to the American people, a platform from which the President announced, explained, and promoted his legislative agenda for the coming year.

• President Lyndon Johnson recognized the importance of the national audience in 1965, when he changed the time for his State of the Union Message from the traditional mid-afternoon to 9:00 P.M., the better to attract the largest number of television viewers, a practice all his successors have continued.

• “As you can imagine, it's an interesting experience to walk out there and not only talk to members of Congress but, as importantly, talk to the American people.” said President George W. Bush on January 26, 2006.42

Television Audience

• Overall, 45.5 million people tuned in to the President Bush’s 2007 address, his first before a Congress in opposition-party control, compared to 41.7 million in 2006, according to Nielsen Media Research.43

• More people watched Bush speak on NBC, with 9.33 million viewers. Fox had 8.4 million, CBS 8 million and ABC 7 million, Nielsen said.44

• On cable, Fox News Channel's coverage of the speech was seen by 4.6 million people, CNN had 2.4 million and MSNBC had 1.6 million.

• Bush’s 2006 address was viewed by an estimated 41.7 million people, an increase of about 3 million from 2005.

• The combined audience of 38.4 million viewers in 2005 was down nearly 10% from the 2004 audience of 43.4 million.

• The number of viewers in more recent years has been off sharply from Bush's 2002 and 2003 State of the Union addresses -- 62.1 million in 2003 and 51.8 million in 2002.

o In 2003, 62 million people in 41 million households tuned in to watch the State of the Union during the lead-in to the Iraq war.

• The number of viewers for the State of the Union in 2005 was the smallest since President Clinton's final address in 2000 (31.5 million).45

• The largest audience recorded in recent years was 66.9 million, for President William Clinton’s 1993 speech on Administration goals (not a State of the Union Address).

• President Bush's January 10, 2007 speech calling for a surge in American troop levels in Iraq drew 42.5 million TV viewers, more than either of his previous two State of the Union addresses.46

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Total Number of Television Viewers Watching State of the Union

Year Viewers 2000 31.5 million 2001 39.8 million* 2002 51.8 million 2003 62.1 million 2004 43.4 million 2005 38.4 million 2006 41.7 million 2007 45.5 million

*Not an official State of the Union address. Source: The National Journal47 State of the Union Speeches Rarely Affect Presidential Support

• An analysis of recent Fox News/Opinion Dynamics and older Gallup polling data going back to the Carter administration shows that, amid all the pageantry and fanfare associated with the occasion, State of the Union addresses generally do little to help boost a president's ratings.

o That may be because of the fact that a president's partisan supporters are much more likely to watch the event than are supporters of the opposition party.

• The following table shows the pre-State of the Union approval ratings for each president in the Gallup Poll prior to the address, and his approval ratings in the first poll conducted after the address (this does not include addresses given by presidents in their first year in office; though many typically give such speeches, it is usually not under the rubric of a State of the Union address).

Change in President's Job Approval Ratings Pre- and Post-State of the Union Polls

Pre-speech

approval rating

Poll dates Date of speech

Post-speech approval

rating

Poll dates Change

% % pct. pts.2007 Bush 35 Jan 16-17* Jan 23 38 Jan 30-31 3 2006 Bush 41 Jan 24-25* Jan 31 44 Feb 7-8* 3 2005 Bush 50 Jan 25-26* Feb 2 51 Feb 8-9* 1 2004 Bush 58 Jan 7-8* Jan 20 53 Jan 21-22* -5 2003 Bush 63 Jan 14-15* Jan 28 59 Jan 29-30* -4 2002 Bush 83 Jan 9-10* Jan 29 81 Jan 30-31* -2 2000 Clinton 64 Jan 25-26 Jan 27 63 Feb 4-6 -1 1999 Clinton 69 Jan 15-17 Jan 19 69 Jan 22-24 0 1998 Clinton 59 Jan 25-26 Jan 27 69 Jan 30-Feb 1 10 1997 Clinton 60 Jan 30-Feb 2 Feb 4 57 Feb 24-26 -3 1996 Clinton 46 Jan 12-15 Jan 25 52 Jan 26-29 6 1995 Clinton 47 Jan 16-18 Jan 24 49 Feb 3-5 2 1994 Clinton 54 Jan 15-17 Jan 25 58 Jan 28-30 4 1992 Bush 46 Jan 16-19 Jan 28 47 Feb 6-9 1 1991 Bush 83 Jan 23-26 Jan 29 82 Jan 30-Feb 2 -1 1990 Bush 80 Jan 4-7 Jan 31 73 Feb 8-11 -7 1988 Reagan 49 Jan 22-25 Jan 25 50 Mar 4-6 1

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1987 Reagan 48 Jan 16-19 Jan 27 43 Mar 6-9 -5 1986 Reagan 64 Jan 10-13 Feb 4 63 Mar 4-10 -1 1985 Reagan 64 Jan 25-28 Feb 6 60 Feb 15-18 -4 1984 Reagan 52 Jan 13-16 Jan 25 55 Jan 27-30 3 1983 Reagan 37 Jan 21-24 Jan 25 35 Jan 28-31 -2 1982 Reagan 47 Jan 22-25 Jan 26 47 Feb 5-8 0 1980 Carter 56 Jan 5-8 Jan 21 58 Jan 25-28 2 1979 Carter 43 Jan 19-22 Jan 25 42 Feb 2-5 -1 1978 Carter 55 Jan 6-9 Jan 19 52 Jan 20-23 -3 * Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; All others (not marked with an asterisk) are Gallup Polls Source: Gallup & Fox News/Opinion Dynamics

• In the 26 cases listed here, there are 13 instances in which a president's post-State of the Union approval rating was lower than his rating before the speech, 11 when it was higher, and 2 in which there was no change.

• Only a few of these cases show differences large enough to suggest real changes in a president's job approval rating, rather than just random variation due to poll sampling.

• It is hard to get a good measurement on the impact of some of Bush's most recent State of the Union addresses.

o Bush gave his 2004 State of the Union speech on Jan. 20, the day after the Iowa caucuses and a week before the New Hampshire primary, both of which helped determine his Democratic Party challenger in the presidential election.

Note: For the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Polls the sample is 900 registered voters with a margin of error of ±3 percentage pts.

Note: Results for Gallup’s pre- and post-State of the Union approval ratings are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted between 1990 and 2005, and in-person interviews with approximately 1,500 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted between 1978 and 1988. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.48

Name and Contents of the Address

• The constitutionally-mandated presidential address has gone through a few name changes:

o It was formally known as the Annual Message from 1790 to 1934.

o It began to be informally called the State of the Union Address from 1942 to 1946.

o Since 1947 it has generally been known as the State of the Union Address.

• Earlier Annual Messages of the President included agency budget requests and general reports on the health of the economy. During the 20th century Congress required more specialized reports on these two aspects separate from the Annual Message.

o Budget Message, required by the National Budget and Accounting Act of 1921 (42 Stat. 20) to be delivered to Congress no more than two weeks after Congress convenes in January.

o Economic Report, required by the Employment Act of 1946 (60 Stat. 23), with a flexible delivery date.

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The Procedures Followed When the President Delivers the Message

• A House concurrent resolution, agreed to by both chambers, sets aside a certain date and time for a joint session of the House of Representatives and the Senate “for receiving such communication as the President of the United States shall be pleased to make to them.”

• At the appointed time, the Senators cross the Capitol to the House chamber, where seats are reserved for them at the front of the chamber.

• The Speaker and the Vice President (in his capacity as President of the Senate) occupy seats at the dais, and the Speaker presides.

• Aside from reserved places for leadership, seats in the chamber are not assigned to particular Members.

o Seats in the well of the House chamber are also reserved for the President’s Cabinet, any Justices of the Supreme Court who choose to attend (in 2004 only Associate Justice Stephen G. Breyer was present), and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Members of the diplomatic corps, who are seated in the gallery, also frequently attend.

The following officials occupy floor seating in the House Chamber during the Address:

Members and former Members of the House of Representative. Members and former Members of the Senate. The President’s Cabinet, save one secretary, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Chief Justice of the United States and the Justices of the Supreme Court. Diplomatic Corps. Seating in the gallery is by tickets only, coordinated by the Sergeant-at-Arms of the House.49

• The President is escorted to the chamber by a specially-appointed committee of Members from both houses; upon entering the chamber, he is announced by the Sergeant-at-Arms of the House of Representatives.

• The Speaker then introduces the President, who then delivers his address.

• In a more recent innovation, initiated by President Ronald Reagan, the chief executive will frequently invite citizens who have distinguished themselves in some field of service or endeavor to be his personal guests in the gallery.

o Usually, the achievements or programs for which the President publicly salutes them also serve to underscore some major element of his message.

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Precautions Taken at the Address to Assure Continuity of Government

• Customarily, one member of the President’s Cabinet does not attend.

• This precaution is taken in order to provide continuity in the presidency in the event a catastrophe were to result in the death or disablement of the President, the Vice President, and other officials in the line of presidential succession gathered in the House chamber.

Cabinet members who did not attend the State of the Union Address

(since 1984) January 23, 2007 Attorney General Alberto Gonzales January 31, 2006 Veterans Affairs Secretary Jim Nicholson February 2, 2005 Secretary of Commerce Donald Evans January 20, 2004 Secretary of Commerce Donald Evans

January 28, 2003 Attorney General John Ashcroft and Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta

January 29, 2002 Interior Secretary Gale Norton February 27, 2001* Veterans Affairs Secretary Anthony Principi January 27, 2000 Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson

January 19, 1999 Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Andrew W. Cuomo

January 27, 1998 Commerce Secretary Bill Daley February 4, 1997 Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman

January 30, 1996 Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala

January 24, 1995 Transportation Secretary Federico Pena January 25, 1994 Agriculture Secretary Mike Epsy February 17, 1993* Interior Secretary Bruce Babbitt January 28, 1992 Secretary of Agriculture Ed Madigan January 29, 1991 Interior Secretary Manuel Lujan January 31, 1990 Veterans Affairs Secretary Edward J. DerwinskiFebruary 9, 1989* No absent cabinet member January 25, 1988 Interior Secretary Donald P. Hodel January 27, 1987 Agriculture Secretary Richard Lyng February 4, 1986 Secretary of Agriculture John Block February 6, 1985 Commerce Secretary Malcolm Baldrige

January 25, 1984 Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Samuel R. Pierce Jr.

*This address before a joint session of Congress is not considered an official “State of the Union” message. Source: Senate Historical Office, “Cabinet members who did not attend the State of the Union Address (since 1984),” January 2007.

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Opposition Responses to the State of the Union Messages

• One late 20th century innovation was the opposition response to the State of the Union Message.

• The format for the opposition response varies, but it usually includes remarks by one or more party leaders (almost always Senators, Representatives, or state governors), who are nationally known, or are considered to be promising emerging political figures.50

• The first official, televised opposition response to a president’s annual message came in 1966, when Senate Minority Leader Everett Dirksen (R-IL) and House Minority Leader Gerald Ford (R-MI) offered a critique of President Lyndon Johnson’s annual message.

o The practice continued sporadically over the next decade and varied in format.

• Since 1982, members of the opposition party, usually members of Congress, have provided responses to the annual message, usually in a televised format.

• Democratic leaders in Congress have named Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius to give their party's response to the 2008 address.

• Gov. Sebelius plans to make the need for bipartisan work in Washington a theme of the Democratic party response.

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Jan. 28 that they picked the Kansas governor because she has been successful in governing a Republican-leaning state.

• Sebelius said she believes America is developing a new political majority in which people don't identify themselves with partisan labels. She noted that half of the nation's 28 Democratic governors are from states carried by the Republican president in 2004.51

List of Past Opposition Responses

• 1966: Senator Everett Dirksen (R-IL) and Rep. Gerald Ford (R-MI) offered a reaction to President Lyndon Johnson’s State of the Union Message, the first organized and televised response to the annual message.

• 1967: Everett Dirksen (R-IL) and Rep. Gerald Ford (R-MI) responded to Johnson’s address in a televised news conference later that evening.

• 1968: Republican members of Congress participated in a televised rebuttal to President Johnson’s State of the Union Message. The program included comments from eight Republican senators and nine Representatives.

• 1970: Democrats responded to President Richard Nixon’s annual message with a 45-minute televised program that included comments from Senator William Proxmire (D-WI), Rep. Donald Fraser (D-MN), Senator Mike Mansfield (D-MT), Senator Henry “Scoop” Jackson (D-WA), Senator Edmund Muskie (D-ME), Rep. Patsy Mink (D-HI), and Rep. John McCormack (D-MA).

• 1979: Republicans responded to President Jimmy Carter’s speech in a 45-minute televised response.

• 1982: Democrats responded to President Ronald Reagan’s speech with a prerecorded program, televised on major networks, offering a Democratic review of the speech.

• 1983: Democrats responded to President Reagan’s speech in a 28-minute prerecorded program.

• 1984: Speaker Tip O’Neill (D-MA) issued a written statement following President Reagan’s speech.

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• 1985: In response to President Reagan’s State of the Union address, the Democratic party provided a televised discussion of randomly selected Democratic voters.

• 1986: Senators George Mitchell (D-ME), Lt. Gov. Harriett Woods (D-MO), Gov. Charles Robb (DVA), Rep. Thomas Daschle (D-SD), Rep. William Gray (D-PA) responded to President Reagan’s speech.

• 1987: Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) and Speaker Jim Wright (D-TX) responded to President Reagan’s speech.

• 1988: Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV) and House Speaker Jim Wright (D-TX) responded to President Reagan’s speech.

• 1989: House Speaker Jim Wright (D-TX) and Senator Lloyd Bentsen (D-TX) responded to President George H.W. Bush’s first State of the Union address.

• 1990: House Speaker Tom Foley (D-WA) offered the Democratic response.

• 1991: Senator George Mitchell (D-ME) offered the Democratic response.

• 1992: House Speaker Tom Foley (D-WA) responded to President George H.W. Bush’s last State of the Union address.

• 1993: Rep. Bob Michel (R-IL) offered the Republican response to President Bill Clinton’s first annual message.

• 1994: Senator Robert Dole (R-KS) responded to President Clinton’s speech.

• 1995: Governor Christine Todd Whitman (R) responded to President Clinton’s speech.

• 1996: Senator Robert Dole (R-KS) offered the Republican critique of President Clinton’s speech.

• 1997: Rep. J.C. Watts (R-OK) offered the Republican response.

• 1998: Senator Trent Lott (R-MS) provided Republican commentary on President Clinton’s speech.

• 1999: Reps. Jennifer Dunn (R-WA) and Steven Largent (R-OK) commented on President Clinton’s speech.

• 2000: Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and William Frist (R-TN) responded to President Clinton’s final State of the Union address.

• 2001: No state of the union message.

• 2002: Rep. Richard Gephardt (D-MO) gave the Democratic critique President George W. Bush’s first State of the Union message.

• 2003: Governor Gary Lock (D-WA) offered a televised response to President Bush’s annual address.

• 2004: Senator Thomas Daschle (D-SD) and Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) offered a televised response immediately following President Bush’s State of the Union message.

• 2005: Senator Harry Reid (D-NV) and Representative Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) offered a televised response following the president’s speech.

• 2006: Governor Tim Kaine (D-VA) gave the televised Democratic response to the president’s speech.

• 2007: Senator Jim Webb (D-VA) gave the televised Democratic response to the president’s speech. 52

• 2008: Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius will give the Democratic response.

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Modern Reasons for Not Giving an Official State of the Union Message

• There have been occasional variations in presidential practices concerning the State of the Union Message since World War II.

• For instance, the past four Presidents (Ronald Reagan in 1981, George H. W. Bush in 1989, William Clinton in 1993, and George W. Bush in 2001) have chosen not to give an official State of the Union Message the year they were first inaugurated as President, having just previously delivered a keynote inaugural address.

o In each instance their first speech to a joint session of Congress closely followed their inauguration, but was not officially categorized as a “State of the Union Message.”

o For instance, President Clinton’s joint session appearance (Feb. 17, 1993) was styled “Address... on Administration Goals,” while that of President George W. Bush (Feb. 27, 2001) was identified as an address “to the Joint Session of Congress.”

• One observer noted in 1993 that by not calling such an address “State of the Union,” the President could present a more focused message, while still deriving “the benefits of a joint session; nothing competes with the pomp and circumstances of the evening....”

• Some recent Presidents have also preferred not to deliver a State of the Union Message immediately prior to their departure from office, although several have given farewell addresses in the last days of their presidencies.

o President Dwight Eisenhower’s farewell message, broadcast to the nation on January 17, 1961, became famous for its warnings against the “military-industrial complex.”

o President Reagan delivered a televised farewell address to the nation from the Oval Office on January 8, 1989, a practice followed by President Clinton on January 18, 2001.

• Conversely, outgoing and incoming Presidents have occasionally given successive State of the Union Messages within weeks of each other.

o For instance, President Truman’s final message, delivered in printed form to Congress on January 7, 1953, was closely followed by President Eisenhower’s first message, delivered in person at the Capitol on February 2 of the same year.

o President Eisenhower’s last message was delivered in printed form to Congress on January 12, 1961, and was similarly closely followed by President John Kennedy’s first State of the Union address, which he delivered personally before Congress on January 30.

• Since World War II, Presidents have occasionally chosen not to deliver a State of the Union Message in person.

• As noted previously, President Truman sent his last message only in printed form, a practice subsequently followed by Presidents Eisenhower (1961) and Jimmy Carter (1981).

o In 1956, President Eisenhower was recuperating from a heart attack, and was unable to deliver his message personally. From his Key West, Florida, retreat, he prepared a seven-minute filmed summary of the message that was subsequently broadcast nationwide.

o When President Richard Nixon sent a multi-part printed message to Congress in 1973, his staff explained that “no oral message was planned because it would follow closely on the heels of Nixon’s second inaugural address.”53

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Endnotes 1 The American Presidency Project 2 Associated Press Newswires, “Bush to Seek Support in State of Union,” 28 January 2008. 3 Washington Post, “Economy, War To Dominate State of Union,” January 28, 2008. 4 Associated Press Newswires, “Bush to Seek Support in State of Union,” 28 January 2008. 5 Washington Post, “Economy, War To Dominate State of Union,” January 28, 2008. 6 Associated Press Newswires, “Bush to Seek Support in State of Union,” 28 January 2008. 7 Associated Press Newswires, “Bush to Seek Support in State of Union,” 28 January 2008. 8 Washington Post, “Economy, War To Dominate State of Union,” January 28, 2008. 9 CQ, “State of the Union Sparring Signals Early End to Bipartisanship,” Jan. 25, 2008. 10 The White House, “Press Gaggle by Dana Perino,” Jan. 28, 2008. 11 Washington Post, “Economy, War To Dominate State of Union,” January 28, 2008. 12 Associated Press Newswires, “Bush to Seek Support in State of Union,” 28 January 2008. 13 Associated Press Newswires, “Bush to Seek Support in State of Union,” 28 January 2008. 14 Washington Post, “Economy, War To Dominate State of Union,” January 28, 2008. 15 CQ, “State of the Union Sparring Signals Early End to Bipartisanship,” Jan. 25, 2008. 16 The Wall Street Journal, “Politics & Economics: Bush to Pitch Free Trade,” 28 January 2008. 17 LA Times, “Bush plans modest final State of the Union speech,” January 27, 2008. 18 The Washington Post, “For Speechwriting Team, Bush Is Editor in Chief,” 28 January 2008. 19 The White House, “Press Gaggle by Dana Perino,” Jan. 28, 2008. 20 Associated Press Newswires, “Guests at State of the Union Speech,” 28 January 2008. 21 CRS Report for Congress, “The President's State of the Union Message: Frequently Asked Questions, “ January 23, 2004. 22 White House web site, visited on January 27, 2005, [http://www.whitehouse.gov/stateoftheunion/history.html]. 23 Clinton Library web site, visited on January 27, 2003. 24 CRS Report for Congress, “The President's State of the Union Message: Frequently Asked Questions, “ January 23, 2004. 25 Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives web site, visited on January 26, 2005, [http://clerk.house.gov/histHigh/Special_Exhibits/stateUnion.html]. 26 CRS Report for Congress, “The President's State of the Union Message: Frequently Asked Questions, “ January 23, 2004. 27 AP; USA Today 28 Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress, “The President’s State of the Union Message: Frequently Asked Questions,” Updated March 7, 2006. 29 Washington Post, “Bush Makes Case for Social Security Plan,” February 3, 2005. 30 Washington Post, “Bush Defends Iraq War, Economic Policy,” January 21, 2004. 31 Fox News, Jan. 28, 2003 cited in CRS Report for Congress, “The President's State of the Union Message: Frequently Asked Questions,“ Updated March 11, 2003. 32 The Washington Post, “Bush Vows to Defeat Terror, Recession,” 30 January 2002. 33 Associated Press Newswires, “89-minute speech sets a Clinton record,” 27 January 2000. 34 Associated Press Newswires, “Ignoring impeachment, Clinton lays out ambitious agenda,” 20 January 1999. 35 The Washington Post, “Clinton Pledges Activist Agenda,” 28 January 1998. 36 The Associated Press, “President focuses on education, balanced budget in State of Union speech,” 4 February 1997. 37 The Associated Press Political Service, “Clinton Challenges GOP to Balance the Budget, Keep Government Open,” 23 January 1996. 38 New York Times, “Clinton, With Bow to G.O.P., Reaffirms His Themes of '92 and Asks New Cooperation,” January 24, 1995. 39 USA Today, “‘Work has just begun’ // Clinton sees year of ‘renewal and reform’,” 26 January 1994. 40 CRS Report for Congress, “The President's State of the Union Message: Frequently Asked Questions,“ January 23, 2004.

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41 Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives web site, visited on January 26, 2005, [http://clerk.house.gov/histHigh/Special_Exhibits/stateUnion.html]. 42 CQ Newsmaker Transcripts, “President Bush Holds News Conference,” Jan. 26, 2006. 43 Variety, “State of the Union strong for Fox,” Jan. 24, 2008. 44 Associated Press Newswires, “More people watch Bush's State of the Union speech than last year,” 25 January 2007. 45 Daily Variety, “Speech impediment,” Feb. 3, 2005. 46 Reuters News, “Bush Iraq speech draws 42.5 million viewers,” 11 January 2007. 47 National Journal, “Cover Story: The Speech,” 21 January 2006. 48 Gallup News Service, “State of the Union Speeches Rarely Affect Presidential Support,” February 02, 2005; Gallup News Service, “Speech Watchers Give Bush High Marks,” February 03, 2005. 49 Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives web site, visited on January 26, 2005, [http://clerk.house.gov/histHigh/Special_Exhibits/stateUnion.html]. 50 CRS Report for Congress, “The President's State of the Union Message: Frequently Asked Questions, “ January 23, 2004. 51 Dow Jones International News, “Democrats To Call For Bipartisanship In Response To Bush Speech,” 28 January 2008. 52 Senate Historical Office, “Opposition Responses to the State of the Union Messages,” Jan. 2007. 53 CRS Report for Congress, “The President's State of the Union Message: Frequently Asked Questions, “ January 23, 2004.