2009 Comparison of Seamless EDSA-Monumento to EDSA Taft Project to the Disconnected EDSA-Monumento...

8/12/2019 2009 Comparison of Seamless EDSA-Monumento to EDSA Taft Project to the Disconnected EDSA-Monumento to EDSA-North Avenue Project ENT MRT3 Extension Project 11250

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EDSA CORRIDORMASS TRANSIT DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS

Project Brief for Her Excellency

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo

November 2006


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Metro Manila Urban Transport

Integration Study (MMUTIS)by Pacific Consultants Inc.

1. US$ 5.0 million JBIC study thatwas completed in 1999 became thefoundation for highway and railprojects in Metro Manila

2. MMUTIS established the 7 majortraffic corridors of Metro Manila.

3. Traffic corridors are consistentwith the location of Commercial,Business and Residential Districts

of Metro Manila.

4. EDSA Corridor is the backbone ofpassenger traffic for Metro Manilawith 600,000 bus ridingpassengers per day as per 1996-1997 surveys

North Triangle

Cubao

East Wood

OrtigasAyala

Fort Bonifacio

Major Metro Manila Transport Corridors


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North Rail

NorthEspresswayCorridor

LRT-4Commonwealth-Espana Corridor

LRT-2

Aurora Corridor

MRT-3

EDSA Corridor

South Rail

SouthExpresswayCorridor

LRT-1Extension

Aguinaldo

Corridor

LRT-1

Taft Corridor

The Metro Manila Urban

Transport Integration StudyIdentified the Following LRT /

MRT Projects forImplementation by 2015

LRT 1 Existing

LRT 1 Extension to CaviteFor development

MRT 2 Existing to beextended to Masinag

MRT 4 to BatasanNovaliches

MRT 3 Phase I Existing

MRT 3 Phase II to Caloocanfor development

Northrail - Southrail

Metro Manila Mass Transit Network (MMUTIS)


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Projects Doable to 2010

North Rail

NorthEspresswayCorridor

LRT-4Commonwealth-Espana Corridor

LRT-2

Aurora Corridor

MRT-3

EDSA Corridor

South Rail

SouthExpresswayCorridor

LRT-1Extension

Aguinaldo

Corridor

LRT-1

Taft Corridor

The following Projects if

immediately implementedcan be targeted forcompletion by 2010:

1. MRT 3 Phase II to Caloocan

2. Northrail to Malolos (Chinesefunding)

3. Southrail (to CalambaKorean

funding)


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DOTC engaged in 2006 the

services of Louis Berger forthe North Av. toCaloocan Link Project

1. Study output confirms thatEDSA corridor as mostsuitable for this Project

2. Study projects a ridership of600,000 passengers a dayfrom North Avenue toCaloocan

3. The Louis Berger dubbedEdsa North Transit followsthe exact alignment of MRT 3Phase II

4. North Rail and LRT-1 arefeeder lines to the EDSACorridor.

RooseveltBalintawakMonumentoNorth Rail

Gen. Malvar Kaingin Bansalangin

North Avenue

Agham

Quezon Avenue

North Rail West

North Ave. - Caloocan Study by Louis Berger


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Northrail Ridership Traffic

demand forecasts haveconfirmed:

1. 219,000 passengers per dayin 2009 with a completedinter-connection to aseamless EDSA corridor.

2. 80,000 (more than 63% drop)without an inter-connection toa seamless EDSA corridor

First Conclusion

The EDSA corridor trafficDemand needs to be addressed ASAPas discussed by MRT 3 Phase II(identified by MMUTIS) and / or EDSANorth Transit (identified by LouisBerger) as this will greatly affect theNorthrail traffic demand.



North Avenue

Agham

Quezon Avenue

North Rail West

Impact of North Av. - Caloocan Link to Northrail


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Main Alternatives

1. Construction of a seamlessMRT 3 Phase I to MRT 3Phase II using the original

MMUTIS concept

2. Construction of the Stand-Alone EDSA North Transitproject on the same corridoras envisioned by LouisBerger



North Avenue

Agham

Quezon Avenue

North Rail West

Technical Options for North Av.Caloocan Project


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Seamless MRT-3 Development Options

Option 1 1. All Elevated from EDSA-North Avenue to EDSA-Monumento

2. US$ 220 million project cost

3. Can be completed in 18 to 24 months

Option 2 1. All elevated from EDSA-North Avenue to Samson-North Rail

2. US$ 410 million project cost


Option 3 1. Combined Elevated and tunnel from EDSA-North Avenue to Samson-North Rail

2. US$ 490 million


Option 4 1. Combined elevated and tunnel from Quezon Blvd-Agham Road to Samson-North Rail West.

2. US$ 575 million to US$ 680 million project cost

3. Complicated additional two way double deck guideway and station on EDSA-North Avenue

4. Additional Depot required for ENT as against no addl depot for seamless

connection (US$ 40 to 50 million cost differential)

Stand- Alone ENT Project with Separate Transfer Station in EDSA-North Avenue

Comparative Analysis Seamless / StandAlone


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Seamless MRT-3 Project Construction Periodcompared to Solicited BOT Project plus ConstructionPeriod

Seamless MRT-3 Project

Implementation TimeConstraints

1. Approval of Seamless ProjectPossible under the ContiguousProject Site of the GPRA (requiresDOJ Opinion)

2. ICC-NEDA Upon submission of theDOJ Opinion approves BTContract (90 days)

3. Financial Closure 12 months

4. Project Construction Period AllElevated 18 to 36monthsdepending on variant with Phase I(North to Monumento) to beopened latest 1stQtr. 2010

Approval Process for Solicited BOT Project(estimated total processing time: 380-425 calendar days minimum)

Prepares PQ Documents

30 days each for the technical andfinancial evaluation (60 days)

Franchise shall be automatically granted.Issuance of Notice to Proceed -within 15calendar days from approval of contract.

90 to 120 days to prepare bid proposal

Private Sector Government Time Frame

Contract Award

Evaluation of Bids

(Two Envelope System)

Receipt and Opening

of Bids

Pre-Bid Conference/

Bid Preparation

Pre-qualification of

Bidders

Advertisement/Invitation

to Pre-qualify (PQ) & Bid

Approval By

Appropriate Body

Project ID and

Preparation

NEDA ICC Clearance

of Contract

Bidders given 30-45 days to submit PQ

documents from last date of advertisement

Disapproved

Approved

Prepares Bid Documents

Receives Notice of Award

Implements Project

Estimated Total ProcessingTime: 380-425 calendar days

ICC to act on the contract -15 working days (20days)

Approve Notice of Award (NOA) within 7 daysafter ICC Clearance

1 day for Bid Submission

Time frame in shaded areas are best estimates only.Working days converted to calendar days by multiplying with a factor of 1.33.

Time frame excludes allotment of compliance with conditions for contract award.

STOP OR IF WARRANTEDPROPOSAL IS RECOMMENDEDFOR NATIONAL GOVERNMENT

FUNDING

Contract Approval

Contract

Implementation

30 working days (40 days)

Once every week for 3 consecutive weeks(21 days)

Submits PQ Documents

Submits Bid Proposal & Bid

Bond

Signs contract after compliance

with all conditions of thecontract/Posts Performance Bond

Issuance of NOA to winning bidder-7 days fromdate of approval of NOA.

Contract execution -within 7 days from receipt of(NOA)/Approval of Contract which shall be within15 days from compliance with all conditions of thecontract award.

30 days to review documents from lastdate of advertisement

Decision to award 30 days from date ofcompletion of financial evaluation

BOT Approval process = 425 days plus 468days financial closure and 1080 days ProjectConstruction. Total Project Implementation

Period of 1,973 days or 6.5 years.

BOT Process and ImplementationTime Constraints for ENT Project


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Summary of the Conditions of the NEDA BoardApproval

Conditions Status

Proposed project cost may bereduced by an indicat ive amoun t of

around US$ 7.8 million.

The Total Project Cost was reducedfrom US$ 214 million to US$ 191.6million, which represents a savingsof around US$ 22.4 million

MRTCs return on equity should be aminimum of around 11 percent.

DOF has no objection and hasfavorably considered the proposedstructure of the ROE.

DOTC shall clarify to the ICCSecretariat th e MRTC evaluation

process not ing that the b idd ing

con ducted by MRTC included the

LRVs and secure DOJ Opinion in

compl iance with Execut ive Order

(EO) 109.

The compliance of the MRT-3 Phase IIProject under EO 109 is likely to be afavorable opinion with the DOJ Legal

Opinion No. 25, S 2002 and the DOJMemorandum dated November 6,2002.

In a letter to the DOTC dated October9, 2002, MRTC has clarified to theDOTC the evaluation process during

the bid for the EPC.


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Summary of the Conditions of the NEDA BoardApproval

Conditions Status

DOTC shall ensure the inclusion of thebud getary requirements of the project ,

inc ludin g the level of the subs idy

requir ed based on th e NEDA traff ic

forecast and shal l be with in DBM

prescribed ceilings.

Based on our meeting with you at theDOTC last September 23, 2002,Assistant Secretary George Esguerrainformed the DOTC panel that thisrequirement has been submitted to theICC-TWG in June 2002. In this regard,

this NEDA Board requirement has beenfully complied with.

Remove references to the acquisitionof L ight Rail Vehicles (LRVs) from th e

Supplemental Agreement. Without

prejudice however, should actual

demand exceed forecast and just i fy

therefore, addit ion al LRVs, the DOTC

may submit a new proposal for the

acquis i t ion of addi t ional LRVs for ICC

approval.

Average ridership of about 350,000passengers per day was reached inSeptember 2002.

An option for the acquisition ofadditional LRVs when ridershipreaches 350,000 passengers per day(triggering event) and finalise anagreement 90 days from the date of thetriggering event.


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The End


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Comparative Project Cost of Seamless MRT-3 Project Options andStand Alone ENT Project

(48 additional trams separate from the ongoing procurement of 48 trams)


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Cummulative Revenue Collection less Expense(PhP 17.50 and PhP 25.00 Average Fare Rate)

Average Fare PhP 17.50 Phase 1 Only Option 1Seamless MRT-3all elevated toMonumento

Option2Seamless MRT-3 all elevated toNorth Rail

Option 3Seamless MRT-3combinedelevated & tunnelto North Rail

Option 4Stand alonePhase 1 & ENT(Phase 1 & LRT1Ext to North Aveand North RailExt to North Ave)

Cumulative Total FareboxRevenue Collection less

Expenses

(1,280,998.60) (431,460.78) (691,389.62) (714,036.15) (2,149,807.89)

Average Fare PhP 25.00 Phase 1 Only Option 1Seamless MRT-3all elevated toMonumento

Option2Seamless MRT-3 all elevated toNorth Rail

Option 3Seamless MRT-3combinedelevated & tunnel

to North Rail

Option 4Stand alonePhase 1 & ENT(Phase 1 & LRT1Ext to North Ave

and North RailExt to North Ave)Cumulative Total FareboxRevenue Collection lessExpenses

(746,890.52) 490,762.80 230,833.96 208,187.43 (1,592,412.88)


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Seamless MRT-3 System and Stand alone Deficit Neutral Cashflow

(PhP 17.50 average fare rate)

Surplus/Deficit Cashflow of

the four project options:

Phase 1 as a stand alonesystem will not be adeficit neutral cash flowfor the government evenafter 2025.

Seamless MRT-3 usingoption 1, 2 & 3 will be adeficit neutral cash flowfor the Government by2020.

Phase 1 and ENTsystems will be not bedeficit neutral even untilafter 2025.

PhP 17.50 average fareis 50% less than thecomparable aircon busfare.


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Seamless MRT-3 System Deficit Neutral Financial Cashflow(PhP 25.00 average fare rate)

Surplus/Deficit Cashflowof

the four project options:

Stand alone Phase 1 willbe deficit neutral cashflow for Government by2021

Seamless MRT-3 usingoptions 1,2 & 3 will be a

deficit neutral cash flowfor Government as earlyas 2015

Stand alone Phase 1and ENT systems will bea deficit neutral cashflow for Government by2022

PhP 25.00 average fareis 20% less than thecomparable aircon busfare.


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Ridership and Financial Impact of a Seamless MRT-3 System

and Non-seamless MRT-ENT System

Historically, EDSA Corridor provides a seamless public conveyance system fromplaces of residences to the Commercial Business Districts (CBD) of Metro Manila.

MRT-3 Soft Opening from North Avenue to Buendia

A disconnected public conveyance system resulted in a maximum 6% utilization of the450,000 passenger a day line. (even after reducing average fare from PhP 18.50 to PhP12.50)

Number of passengers rose from 30,000 passengers a day to 120,000 passengers a dayafter the following month of the opening of a seamless public conveyance system fromEDSA- North Avenue of northern Metro Manila and the EDSA-Taft of southern MetroManila to the CBDs of Metro Manila.

North Rail Study in 1999

Ridership from North Rail Caloocan to Malolos of 1.5 million passenger is highly dependent

on a connection to a seamless means of conveyance from North Rail Caloocan to thecommercial business district of Metro Manila.

Without the connection to a seamless means of conveyance to the CBDs of Metro Manilathe North Rail risdership will fall to 440,000 [passengers a day.


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Legal Resolution to DOJ 10 series 2003 and DOJ 50 series 2004which does answer the Query of ICC-NEDA

Legal basis for the Classification of the Phase I as an Ongoing Project

DOJ Opinions 10 and 40 Did not consider the fact that the government and MetroRail Transit Corporation (MRTC) started negotiationsfor Phase II began lastApril 22, 1996, prior to the execution of the BLT Agreement on August 28, 1997which prior to the expiry of the 25 year BLT Agreement. The only condition fornegotiated, ongoing and contiguous project under section 4 of PD 1594 andSection 53 (d) of the GPRA is that negotiations commence before expiry oforiginal contract.

As Phase II is merely an extension of Phase I, the scope of worksof Phase II issimilar or related to that of Phase I. The technical specificationsof Phase II arethe exact same technical specifications of Phase I.

The originalcontract, the BLT Agreement, is the result of a competitive bidding.As affirmed by the Supreme Court in Tatad v. Garcia (G.R. No. 114222, April 6,

1995), the Project was validly bidded out and awarded.


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DOJ 25 series 2002 and DOJ Memorandum to Her Excellency DatedNovember 10, 2002 answers the Query of ICC-NEDA

Phase II is adjacent to an ongoing project is consistent with provisions of EO 109-A, Section 4 of

PD 1594and Section 53 (d) of the General Procurement reform Act MRT-3 Project is a Solicited and negotiated BOT design, construct and maintain project for 25 years.

Phase II is an extension of an on-going contract and owner of the ultimate design of the EDSA MRT-3 Phase I System.

DOJ Legal Opinion 25 s. 2002 and DOJ Memorandum dated November 6, 2002 to Her ExcellencyGloria Macapagal-Arroyo noted that MRT-3 Phase II can be undertaken through a Supplemental

Agreement.

Effectiveness of Section 2.6 of the BLT Agreement Section 2.6 has not expired based on the contemporaneous and subsequent acts between DOTC

and MRTC that led to the 2ndacceptance and 2ndendorsement to the ICC-NEDA by DOTC of theMRT-3 Phase II Supplemental Agreement.

This is noted by DOJ Legal Opinion 25 s. 2002 based on the BLT agreement and Article 1371 of RA386 (Civil Code).

Notwithstanding the above: PD 1594 and the GPRA states that additional works may be undertaken pursuant to an extra work

order or supplemental agreement.

BOT Law allows direct negotiation of contracts.


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Comparative South East Asian BOT Developed LRT projects

Index of

TrafficStress onNetwork

Capacity ActualRidership

Concession Type

Status of Lenders Status ofPrivate SectorInvestors

Cost (US$(million) perKilometer

Cost per

KilometerBenchmark(World Bank)

Malaysia 1.6 Monorail 200,000 60,000 BOT Updated payment Nationalized 36.00 30-75

Putra 500,000 170,000 BOT Updated payment Nationalized 53.00 33-75

Star 600,000 140,000 BOO Updated payment Nationalized 33.00 30-75

Philippines 13.11 LRT-1 350,000 350,000 GOCC Updated payment GOCC 40.00 27-66

LRT-2 450,000 200,000 GOCC Updated payment GOCC 57.00 33-75

MRT-3 450,000 450,000 BLT Updated paymentRestructuring

undernegotiation

40.00 27-66

Thailand 4.45BTSC(SkyTrain)

600,000 400,000 BOTLenders were

discounted by asmuch as 40%

Restructuringundernegotiation

155.00 60-180

BMCL(BlueLine)

600,000 250,000 BOTLenders were

discounted by asmuch as 40%

Restructuringundernegotiation

59.00 30-75

Source: Best Practices For Private Sector Investment In Railways, TERA Internatonal Group, INC. (TERA). Asian Development Bank and the World Bank Group, March 2006


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Additional Depot and a Separate North Avenue Station Additional cost of US$ 50 million for an additional depot and US$ 5 million for a separate North

Avenue Station.

No Inter-connection MRT-3 Phase I is owned by MRTC which owns the plans and rights over the whole MRT-3 Project. Projected increase in ridership and revenue collection will not be realized because of a disconnected

public means of conveyance from the places of residences and the CDBs of Metro Manila. The LRT-1 electro-mechanical system is not compatible with the electro-mechanical system of MRT-3 LRT-1 and North Rail proposed extensions to EDSA-North Avenue does not consider the DOTC

Mass Transit Master Plan, DPWH flyover projects and DENR requirements.

Higher Fares for the Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas and Valenzuela (CAMANAVA) area,Northern Quezon City, and Bulacan Residents

Riders from CAMANAVA area, North Quezon City, and Bulacan will be paying fare twice , to be ableto go to places of work in the CBDs along EDSA.

Additional ROW Requirements An independent system that will be connected to LRT-1 will require acquisition of 2,500 sq.m. or PhP

200 million ROW in the Monumento area. .

Financially and economically not feasible Financial feasibility is questionable due to low ridership, reduced revenue collection and higher project

cost (study done by LRTA,s Japanese Technical consultant and DOTCs French Technicalconsultant).

Additional Concerns Over a Disconnected MRT3-ENT, LRT-1 Extension toNorth Avenue and North Rail Extension to North Avenue Project Options

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