Social Cleavages and Consolidation of Democracy in

Serbia 2000-2007

extended (but not improved) version

IUC, 2009

Social cleavages

• Long-lasting division within society, based on fundamental issues

- ideology

- political organization

- socio-demographic group• Lipset and Rokkan freezing hypothesis• National and industrial revolutions• Center-periphery, land-industry, state-church,

owners-worker

Lipset-Rokkan hypothesis

Ideological, identity-based

oppositions

Interest opposiotns

Opposition within National elites

Local-regional oppositions

Functional axe

Terit

oria

l ax

e

Critics and inovations…

• materialist vs. postmaterialsts

• What is less than social cleavege? (Barolini, Mair, Deegan-Krause)

- ideology

- political organization

- socio-demographic group

Cleavages and postCommunism

• Elites project, not connected with social bases (Attila Agh)

• Not based as class conflicts (Offe, Preuss)

• missing middle approach, modernization approach, comparative approach (Evans, Whitefield)

• Kitschelt communists legacy study

New ideas on PostComm Cleaveges

• Fon Beyme:

-ancient regime - transformational regime

- centralization – decentralization

- nationalism – Occidentalism

(traditionalism-modernism (Markus), “return to ourselves or return to Europe”

east-west, pre modern- modern –postmodern, Inglehart)

The main line of party grouping

Market allocation

Political allocation

Libertarno-cosmopolit.

Autoritharian particularists

Consolidation meets cleaveges

• Ideological vs interest based

- competition vs cooperation

- zero sum game vs bargaining (consensus)

- Constellation – cross-cutting ,overlapping, reinforcing

- Hierarchy of cleavages

Serbian case – history via cleavages

• 1990 – president of Serbia

• 1996/97 – local elections defeat

• 1999 – NATO bombing

History via cleavages 2

2000 – founding elections

Ancient regime – New regime cleavage

2002

traditionalists – modernists

2003 - Djindjic assassination

2004.

Transitional losers – winners

Ancient regime – New regime?

2006 – same cleavages

(Milosevic dies)

2008- Kosovo independence?

radicals - Serbian democrats - democrats

Ancient regime - new regime (democratic)

Cleavages in Serbia - summary

- Ancient regime – new regime

- Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism)(pre modern, modern and postmodern - Croatia)

- Transitional losers - transitional winners

- Center – periphery

- Materialism – post materialism

Consolidation and cleavages in Serbia

Ideological conflicts

Interest opposition

National elite competition

Local and regional conflicts

1.2.

3.

4.5.

1. Traditionalism – modernism (Occidentalism)2. Ancient regime – new regime3. Transitional losers - transitional winners4. Center – periphery5. . Materialism – post materialism

Conse q uences – 2008.

• Reinforcing cleavages – divided society

• Democracy is not the only game in the town – consensus across cleavages?

• Social exclusion and frustration

• We vs them

Nightmare continues…

• 2007- new elections and new government

• Democrats (stronger) and Serbian democrats

• Kosovo independence/”independence”

• Riots in Belgrade (feb 2008), and break up of coalition

New elections – may 08

• circumstances? • Kosovo - international perspective• Economy – middle class (investments,

development)• Kosovo vs. European Union • Two block – weak middle (Serbian Dems)• New Government - democrats and Socialists

Long term consequences

• Europe, not Kosovo (veeery long term)

• Changing type of party system – from polarized pluralism toward moderate pluralism (Sartori) – Division among radicals – new “less” radical

party – 20% percent and more

• Better prospects for democracy

Short and mid term consequences

• Europe not Kosovo, but how?

(incl. EU foreign policy )

• Independence recognition – how to react?

• Nationalistic Rhetoric (or “just” strategy)

• International court of Justice – UN Assembly (Macedonia, Montenegro)

To be continued…

• Serbian identity and belonging?

Is there a real choice? Identification based on what (lack of mobilization force)? Cant be too happy about EU (regulations)

• Region – Dear Ivo Sanader

• EU?

• NATO? (officially neutral, not recognized)

• SEKA

What cleaves Serbia?

• Economy - still not clear position, just matter of redistribution within narrow space (still transitional economy, Krastev)

• Big ideological cleavage – narrowed space (antidiscrimination law)

• no ancient regime cleavage any more

• center- periphery (Vojvodina case)

The main line of party grouping – future?

Market allocation

Political allocation

Libertarno-cosmopolit.

Autoritharian particularists