20090515-trafomarketnxpowerlite-090520042615-phpapp02

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Goulden Reports 2009 2

INTRODUCTION

SPEAKER

Mr Steve Aubertin

Managing Director of

Goulden Reports


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Goulden Reports

Goulden Reports has been in existencesince 1983 and has a history dating back

to 1970. The company specialises inpublished and private market research inthe global electrical industry and relatedsectors. The range of published reportshas been in continuous production for

over twenty years and during that timemany single client projects have been

successfully completed.


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TRANSFORMER INDUSTRY

BACKGROUN

DFor a generation until the start of this century global

transformer markets have been characterisedas:-

Excess Production Capacity Depressed (but stable) Prices Static Value/Volume (US$/kVA) Ratios Consistent (but low) Margins Stable Material Prices Capital Cost Driven Products

From 2002 demand has grown, production capacityhas been rationalised, material prices haveincreased and margins have improved.


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SURVEY

BACKGROUND

Against this background, in 2008 Goulden Reportswere commissioned by the ICA to undertake aresearch project with the key aims of establishingon a region by region basis:-

The current and future market volume (MVA)demand for transformers

The current and future number oftransformers

The current and future demand for copper in

transformers The current and future demand for Core steel

in transformers


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PROPOSED SURVEY

METHODOLOGY

The proposed methodology for the project was:-

Client Briefing

Desk and Internet Research Phase Field Interview Phase

Telephone Interviews

Personal Interviews

Analysis and Report Production

At the outset of the project the programmeenvisaged was 20 weeks from commissioning tocompletion.


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REASONSFOR MODIFICATIONS TO

THE RESEARCH PROGRAMME

The telephone and personal interviewsrevealed a great deal of very conflicting data

No respondent could provide an overall view

of a region or market segment to the level ofdetail required

A value based model did not producesufficiently sensitive data to convert tomarket demand in volume kVA terms

Because key countries have many distributionorganisations, no comprehensive data ondistribution transformers exists


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ACTUAL RESEARCH

METHODOLOGY

Client Briefing

Desk and Internet Research Phase

Field Interview Phase

Telephone Interviews Personal Interviews

Review and Analysis Email questionnaires

Telephone Interviews

Analysis and Report Production

In the event the project took 32 weeks fromcommissioning to completion.


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MODIFIED RESEARCH

The decision was taken to concentrate onreinforcing the MVA installed and marketdemand data by additional research

covering utility organisations Greater emphasis was placed on refining

conversion data and key market ratios

Particular effort was placed on developinga bottom up dis-aggregated analysis ofthe distribution transformer sector

Similarly regional data was derived fromindividual country analysis


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Market Overview

2002 to 2012

Global transformer demand was 1,172GVA in2002 and is expected to reach 2,117GVA in 2012.

CAGR 6.09%

Copper demand generated was 632 million MT in2002 and will have grown to 1,206 million MT by2012

CAGR 6.67%

Core Steel demand generated was 1.47 million MTin 2002 and will have grown to 2.56 million MT by2012

CAGR 5.71%


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Global MVA Demand by Region

2002 to 2007

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

WESTERN EUROPE 138,829 175,256 150,433 153,552 164,456 170,920

EASTERN EUROPE 17,026 20,298 18,732 22,218 37,444 39,322

FSU 38,932 63,024 46,722 60,301 123,547 129,416

AFRICA 17,699 16,693 19,858 22,922 36,271 34,312

MIDDLE EAST 29,820 44,271 56,144 44,710 65,738 61,575

INDIAN SUB CON 77,812 67,035 72,817 97,136 130,570 133,624

ASIA 382,823 400,377 439,637 459,254 530,626 601,862

SOUTH AMERICA 33,191 40,069 40,179 43,552 51,438 55,268

C AM & CARRIBEAN 9,146 6,101 6,745 9,236 10,003 8,795

NORTH AMERICA 414,782 361,386 272,010 410,714 342,176 349,045

AUSTRALASIA 11,716 12,581 6,715 13,667 18,027 19,332

TOTAL 1,171,776 1,207,090 1,129,990 1,337,260 1,510,295 1,603,472


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Global MVA Demand by Region

2008 to 2012

REGION 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 cagr

02 to 07

cagr

07 to12

cagr

02 to 12

WESTERN EUROPE 176,919 186,513 203,164 219,325 228,561 4.25% 5.98% 5.11%

EASTERN EUROPE 41,377 44,094 47,849 52,520 51,118 18.22% 5.39% 11.62%

FSU 137,337 147,196 163,051 170,882 181,413 27.16% 6.99% 16.64%

AFRICA 36,613 39,812 43,226 52,457 51,671 14.16% 8.53% 11.31%

MIDDLE EAST 66,977 73,682 80,916 91,374 94,501 15.61% 8.94% 12.23%

INDIAN SUB CON 139,180 154,208 188,008 186,572 201,537 11.42% 8.57% 9.98%

ASIA 627,769 716,080 800,210 841,823 798,693 9.47% 5.82% 7.63%

SOUTH AMERICA 58,765 63,393 68,280 67,299 65,972 10.74% 3.60% 7.11%

C AM & CARRIB 9,342 10,122 10,960 12,026 11,918 -0.78% 6.26% 2.68%

NORTH AMERICA 357,886 371,597 385,278 404,260 412,021 -3.39% 3.37% -0.07%

AUSTRALASIA 20,228 21,354 22,528 19,406 19,617 10.54% 0.29% 5.29%

TOTAL 1,672,394 1,828,052 2,013,471 2,117,943 2,117,023 6.47% 5.71% 6.09%


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Global Transformer Demand by Region

number of units 2002 to 2007

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

WESTERN EUROPE 185,086 185,708 179,021 174,048 182,629 187,625

EASTERN EUROPE 46,039 46,468 49,193 53,595 64,075 67,784

FSU 88,122 88,895 116,028 129,978 147,650 140,929

AFRICA 117,074 105,537 181,073 181,110 195,671 143,771

MIDDLE EAST 67,914 79,786 106,324 129,095 125,223 92,312

INDIAN SUB CON 550,586 565,832 585,542 634,296 575,432 695,491

ASIA 1,992,449 2,065,444 2,121,715 2,203,201 2,243,680 2,589,423

SOUTH AMERICA 126,699 129,259 133,993 149,319 174,894 199,296

C AM & CARRIBEAN 19,976 25,096 23,283 37,684 55,516 37,322

NORTH AMERICA 1,175,832 1,104,698 1,199,253 1,256,895 1,327,684 1,328,762

AUSTRALASIA 9,447 13,081 17,203 19,761 16,568 26,080

TOTAL 4,379,224 4,409,804 4,712,628 4,968,982 5,109,021 5,508,795


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Global Transformer Demand by Region

number of units 2008 to 2012

REGION 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 cagr02 - 07

cagr 07

- 12

cagr 02

- 12

WESTERN EUROPE 189,645 199,625 232,160 213,312 216,829 0.27% 2.94% 1.60%

EASTERN EUROPE 70,245 75,626 83,630 89,622 73,276 8.04% 1.57% 4.76%

FSU 144,213 153,700 166,022 172,947 168,917 9.85% 3.69% 6.72%

AFRICA 153,339 170,652 189,065 198,996 173,420 4.19% 3.82% 4.01%

MIDDLE EAST 100,287 112,446 125,380 127,140 115,652 6.33% 4.61% 5.47%

INDIAN SUB CON 737,063 764,393 793,085 821,951 828,662 4.78% 3.57% 4.17%

ASIA 2,601,109 3,012,074 3,362,342 3,491,872 3,020,851 5.38% 3.13% 4.25%

SOUTH AMERICA 210,726 230,626 251,129 251,745 220,150 9.48% 2.01% 5.68%

C AM & CARRIBEAN 39,320 43,239 47,383 48,732 44,009 13.32% 3.35% 8.22%

NORTH AMERICA 1,347,650 1,412,210 1,474,723 1,470,878 1,460,674 2.48% 1.91% 2.19%

AUSTRALASIA 26,341 27,953 29,553 29,830 27,645 22.52% 1.17% 11.34%

TOTAL 5,619,938 6,202,543 6,754,473 6,917,025 6,350,084 4.70% 2.88% 3.79%


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Global Copper Demand MT by Region

2002 to 2007

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

WESTERN EUROPE 91,177 102,403 97,027 93,824 100,028 104,847

EASTERN EUROPE 8,839 10,170 9,560 11,472 18,553 19,103

FSU 20,781 29,835 25,224 32,582 58,792 60,027

AFRICA 10,252 9,981 13,105 13,056 19,532 18,069

MIDDLE EAST 16,901 23,195 32,083 28,914 36,892 32,642

INDIAN SUB CON 58,708 56,231 59,861 73,951 79,045 93,019

ASIA 237,064 255,907 265,695 275,666 344,243 368,904

SOUTH AMERICA 14,975 17,559 18,162 20,034 24,337 25,910

C AM & CARRIBEAN 3,692 2,730 3,030 4,172 5,708 4,178

NORTH AMERICA 165,264 149,057 125,336 171,003 157,251 158,215

AUSTRALASIA 4,347 4,997 3,468 5,982 7,206 7,729

TOTAL 631,998 662,064 652,551 730,655 851,587 892,643


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Global Copper Demand MT by Region

2008 to 2012

REGION 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cagr

02 to 07

cagr

07 to 12

cagr

02 to 12

WESTERN EUROPE 107,180 115,079 130,040 133,514 139,986 2.83% 5.95% 4.38%

EASTERN EUROPE 20,416 22,129 24,471 27,116 25,524 16.67% 5.97% 11.19%

FSU 64,448 70,154 78,130 82,774 87,795 23.63% 7.90% 15.50%

AFRICA 19,245 21,286 23,302 27,499 26,497 12.00% 7.96% 9.96%

MIDDLE EAST 35,500 39,760 44,356 49,197 49,778 14.07% 8.81% 11.41%

INDIAN SUB CON 98,952 107,508 123,204 125,945 134,522 9.64% 7.66% 8.64%

ASIA 387,016 458,990 518,567 544,800 497,411 9.25% 6.16% 7.69%

SOUTH AMERICA 27,788 30,654 33,479 33,581 32,430 11.59% 4.59% 8.03%

C AM & CARRIB 4,529 5,052 5,411 5,943 5,862 2.50% 7.01% 4.73%

NORTH AMERICA 163,526 173,452 182,840 192,409 197,581 -0.87% 4.54% 1.80%

AUSTRALASIA 8,189 8,749 9,310 8,315 8,308 12.20% 1.45% 6.69%

TOTAL 936,789 1,052,813 1,173,108 1,231,091 1,205,695 7.15% 6.20% 6.67%


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Global Core Steel Demand MT by Region

2002 to 2007

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

WESTERN EUROPE 171,408 193,837 178,598 178,158 189,184 194,536

EASTERN EUROPE 23,290 25,419 25,416 29,175 42,291 44,348

FSU 45,464 61,466 57,420 70,384 115,742 118,249

AFRICA 31,462 29,850 40,944 43,076 56,800 49,476

MIDDLE EAST 39,179 51,925 69,561 72,000 85,119 69,835

INDIAN SUB CON 107,835 103,698 110,420 132,700 148,631 165,266

ASIA 609,040 638,145 678,389 710,354 767,580 890,309

SOUTH AMERICA 43,200 48,464 49,958 55,393 65,628 71,558

C AM & CARRIBEAN 10,346 8,667 9,659 14,022 16,964 13,185

NORTH AMERICA 377,253 338,664 296,849 386,527 354,416 359,721

AUSTRALASIA 9,109 10,868 9,274 13,690 14,564 16,552

TOTAL 1,467,587 1,511,003 1,526,487 1,705,480 1,856,918 1,993,036


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Global Core Steel Demand MT by Region

2008 to 2012

REGION 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cagr

02 to 07

Cagr

07 to 12

cagr

02 to 12

W EUROPE 199,542 210,633 235,035 237,596 248,714 2.56% 5.04% 3.79%

E EUROPE 46,690 50,309 55,503 60,345 55,002 13.75% 4.40% 8.97%

FSU 124,864 134,369 148,595 156,367 162,855 21.07% 6.61% 13.61%

AFRICA 53,219 59,030 65,279 74,053 68,548 9.48% 6.74% 8.10%

MIDDLE EAST 76,485 85,510 95,304 103,394 102,262 12.25% 7.93% 10.07%

INDIAN SUB CON 175,042 189,462 216,357 220,592 232,874 8.91% 7.10% 8.00%

ASIA 915,769 1,064,042 1,205,814 1,273,018 1,149,474 7.89% 5.24% 6.56%

SOUTH AMERICA 76,451 83,715 91,395 91,676 85,611 10.62% 3.65% 7.08%

C AM & CARRIB 14,086 15,564 17,165 18,388 17,490 4.97% 5.81% 5.39%

NORTH AMERICA 368,179 384,754 401,106 413,032 416,985 -0.95% 3.00% 1.01%

AUSTRALASIA 17,207 18,298 19,426 17,956 17,454 12.69% 1.07% 6.72%

TOTAL 2,067,534 2,295,687 2,550,978 2,666,418 2,557,268 6.31% 5.11% 5.71%


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Overall Copper Density kg/kVA by

Region 2002 to 2007

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

WESTERN EUROPE 0.66 0.58 0.64 0.61 0.61 0.61

EASTERN EUROPE 0.52 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.50 0.49

FSU 0.53 0.47 0.54 0.54 0.48 0.46

AFRICA 0.58 0.60 0.66 0.57 0.54 0.53

MIDDLE EAST 0.57 0.52 0.57 0.65 0.56 0.53

INDIAN SUB CON 0.75 0.84 0.82 0.76 0.61 0.70

ASIA 0.62 0.64 0.60 0.60 0.65 0.61

SOUTH AMERICA 0.45 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.47

C AM & CARRIBEAN 0.40 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.57 0.48

NORTH AMERICA 0.40 0.41 0.46 0.42 0.46 0.45

AUSTRALASIA 0.37 0.40 0.52 0.44 0.40 0.40

TOTAL 0.54 0.55 0.58 0.55 0.56 0.56


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Overall Copper Density kg/kVA by

Region 2008 to 2012

REGION 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Cagr

002 to 07

Cagr

07 to 12

Cagr

02 to 12

WESTERN EUROPE 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.61 0.61 -1.36% -0.03% -0.70%

EASTERN EUROPE 0.49 0.50 0.51 0.52 0.50 -1.32% 0.55% -0.39%

FSU 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 -2.77% 0.85% -0.97%

AFRICA 0.53 0.53 0.54 0.52 0.51 -1.89% -0.53% -1.21%

MIDDLE EAST 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.53 -1.33% -0.13% -0.73%

INDIAN SUB CON 0.71 0.70 0.66 0.68 0.67 -1.60% -0.84% -1.22%

ASIA 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.65 0.62 -0.20% 0.32% 0.06%

SOUTH AMERICA 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.50 0.49 0.77% 0.95% 0.86%

C AM & CARRIBEAN 0.48 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 3.31% 0.70% 2.00%

NORTH AMERICA 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.48 2.61% 1.13% 1.87%

AUSTRALASIA 0.40 0.41 0.41 0.43 0.42 1.51% 1.16% 1.33%

TOTAL 0.56 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.63% 0.46% 0.55%


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MVA & Copper Demand 2002 to 2012

Global MVA and CopperDemand 2002 to 2012

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MVA

andMT

Total Global

and Copper

emand


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Global Market Concentration

Total Global Demand in 2007 = 1,604GVA

Top 20 Countries account for 82% of Global Demand



Top 10 Countries In descending order of size:-China, United States, India, Japan, Russia, Canada, Germany, South Korea, Brazil,United Kingdom,


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Global Market Concentration

Top Ten Markets

Country 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012

China 21.82% 21.93% 26.99% 23.87% 23.66% 26.22% 26.20%

United States 32.02% 26.42% 19.26% 27.75% 19.28% 18.47% 16.51%

India 6.29% 4.88% 5.65% 6.68% 7.96% 7.65% 8.69%

Japan 5.45% 5.99% 5.88% 5.63% 5.73% 5.41% 4.95%

Russia 2.43% 4.23% 2.93% 3.27% 5.04% 4.99% 5.41%

Canada 1.71% 2.08% 2.58% 1.50% 2.11% 2.04% 1.80%

Germany 2.28% 2.97% 1.77% 2.54% 1.78% 1.91% 2.14%

Korea, South 1.18% 1.19% 1.34% 1.07% 1.44% 1.66% 2.04%

Brazil 1.40% 2.32% 1.89% 1.77% 1.40% 1.49% 1.29%

United Kingdom 1.74% 1.40% 2.18% 1.47% 1.56% 1.46% 1.28%

Rest of World 23.70% 26.58% 29.53% 24.44% 30.05% 28.69% 29.69%

Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%


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Global Trade in Transformers Overview

Total World Market for Transformers in2006 was estimated at $27,154 million.

Total Exports recorded in 2006 were

worth $6,043 million. 22% of demand was satisfied by imports.

78% of demand was satisfied by domesticproduction.

Trade compared with market size hasdecreased from nearly 30% in the mid1990s to current levels of 20% to 22%.


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Total Transformer Export Trends

1997 to 2006

Tot ob Transformer ExportValues by Region

0.0

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

7,000.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Value$million

W FS M

I S S m ric N r h Am ric i c M


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Power Transformer Export Trends

1997 to 2006

Glo al Power Transformer ExportVal es y Re ion

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Vales$million

Wester Eur e tal Easter Eur e & FS tal

Africa tal Mi le East tal

I ianSu n tal Asia & Australasia tal

S uth & entral America tal N rth America (Inc Mexic ) tal


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Distribution Transformer Export Trends

1997 to 2006

Glo al Distri tion Transformer ExportVal es y Re ion

0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

3,000.0

3,500.0

4,000.0

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Vale$million

Western Eur e Eastern Eur e & FS Africa Mi le East

IndianSu n Asia & Australasia S & ent America N rth America inc Mex


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Total Transformer Export Global

Shares by Region 1997 to 2006

All Transfor me rs Share of lobal Exports by Value

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Western Europe North Amer ica inc Mex Asia & Australas ia Eastern Europe & FSU

S & Cent America Indian Sub Con Africa Middle East


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Power Transformer Export Global


Power Transforme rs Share of Global Exports by Value

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Western Europe Asia & Australasia North America (Inc Mexico) Eastern Europe & FSU

South & Central America Africa Indian Sub Con Middle East


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Distribution Transformer Export Global


Distribution Transformers Share of Global Exports by Value

0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00%

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Western Europe Nor th Amer ica inc Mex Asia & Aus tralas ia Eas tern Europe & FSU

S & Cent America Indian Sub Con Middle East Africa


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Global Transformer Trade Patterns

1997 to 2006

The majority of the $6.0 billion exporttrade in transformers is within localregions.

Highest levels are in excess of 90%(Power Transformers in North America)

Lowest levels less than 5% (PowerTransformers in Indian Sub Con)

Generally levels of trade with regions inDistribution transformers is higher thanfor Power Transformers.


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Trade Within Region

All Transformers 1997 to 2006

Total Transformers 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Western Europe 54.53% 35.64% 32.78% 32.99% 35.35% 35.17% 37.00% 43.07% 40.42% 42.76%

Eastern Europe & FSU 26.35% 41.69% 31.12% 40.58% 45.32% 48.77% 44.89% 44.72% 48.66% 47.29%

Africa 91.73% 72.40% 56.99% 29.58% 23.70% 34.56% 33.23% 52.30% 21.54% 14.08%

Middle East 8.21% 16.59% 9.12% 17.94% 20.75% 19.33% 36.03% 33.02% 45.79% 82.96%

Indian Sub Con 15.70% 10.40% 13.66% 20.44% 12.77% 14.94% 21.08% 5.99% 5.84% 7.71%

Asia & Australasia 77.57% 67.61% 50.31% 48.94% 49.54% 35.26% 55.71% 49.12% 47.25% 39.01%

South & Central

America87.20% 88.64% 89.22% 47.91% 52.80% 42.06% 56.41% 46.97% 53.90% 57.92%

North America (inc Mex) 66.29% 70.41% 77.25% 82.90% 82.48% 77.83% 78.37% 81.49% 82.21% 83.70%


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Trade Within Region

Power Transformers 1997 to 2006

Power Transformers 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Western Europe 28.03% 24.11% 13.97% 14.27% 15.14% 16.87% 23.80% 30.21% 26.11% 27.13%


Africa 77.60% 87.34% 55.29% 17.87% 4.24% 11.99% 10.12% 35.78% 7.03% 4.46%

Middle East 2.57% 16.62% 3.93% 22.45% 19.89% 23.75% 32.68% 36.37% 42.91% 84.50%

Indian Sub Con 10.80% 3.97% 3.80% 24.47% 6.93% 2.08% 3.31% 2.30% 0.83% 0.91%


South & Central America 85.53% 91.53% 88.95% 33.58% 36.18% 29.35% 42.05% 36.55% 43.45% 50.08%

North America (Inc Mexico) 80.55% 89.07% 94.19% 96.96% 96.85% 95.00% 90.91% 93.35% 92.49% 95.11%


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Trade Within Region

Distribution Transformers 1997 to 2006

Distribution

Transformers

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Western Europe 68.60% 43.65% 45.83% 46.93% 51.78% 50.64% 49.26% 52.10% 52.29% 52.48%


Africa 93.04% 72.07% 58.42% 63.51% 78.28% 75.90% 68.50% 81.01% 79.67% 73.37%

Middle East 19.21% 16.56% 13.75% 13.89% 21.82% 14.78% 39.82% 27.45% 49.36% 81.03%

Indian Sub Con 20.50% 25.10% 21.95% 18.04% 17.53% 23.04% 26.72% 11.35% 13.20% 17.06%


South & Central America 92.04% 83.33% 89.86% 88.93% 88.47% 75.95% 73.69% 63.84% 70.90% 69.35%

North America (inc Mex) 64.65% 67.12% 73.15% 77.52% 74.15% 68.58% 72.73% 75.86% 77.59% 79.02%


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Trade Within Region

All Transformers 1997 to 2006

Total Transform er Exports w ithin Region by Region

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Western Europe Eastern Europe & FSU Africa Middle East

Indian Sub Con A sia & A us tralas ia South & Central A meric a North A meric a (inc Mex )


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Trade Within Region

Power Transformers 1997 to 2006

Power transformers Exports w ithin region by Region

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Indian Sub Con Asia & Australasia South & Central America North America (Inc Mexico)


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Trade Within Region

Distribution Transformers 1997 to 2006

Distribution Transformer Exports within Region by Region

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006


Indian Sub Con A sia & A ustralasia South & Central A merica North A merica (inc Mex)


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Eastern Europe & FSU Trade Within

Region 1997 to 2006

E E rope & FSU Exports within Re

ion

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Pow erTransformers Distri utionTransformers TotalTransformers


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Africa Trade Within Region

1997 to 2006

Africa Trade w ithin Re ion

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Pow erTransformers DistriutionTransformers TotalTransformers


41/60


Middle East Trade Within Region

1997 to 2006

Middle East Trade Within re ion

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006



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Indian Sub-Continent Trade Within

Region 1997 to 2006

Indian S

Con Trade Within Re

ion

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006



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Asia & Australasia Trade Within

Region 1997 to 2006

Asia & Australasia Trade w ithin Re

ion

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Pow erTransformers Distri ! utionTransformers TotalTransformers


44/60


South & Central America Trade Within

Region 1997 to 2006

S & CentAmerica Trade Within Re"

ion

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

80.00%

90.00%

100.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Pow erTransformers Distri # utionTransformers TotalTransformers


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North America (Incl. Mexico) Trade

Within Region 1997 to 2006

NorthAmerica Trade Within Re $ ion

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Pow erTransformers Distri % utionTransformers TotalTransformers


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Distribution Transformer Demand

2002 to 2012

Global Distribution Transformer demand willincrease from 580GVA in 2002 to 941GVA in2012. A cagr of 4.96%

The attendant demand for copper will increase

from 444,000 MT to 760,000 MT over the sametimeframe. A cagr of 5.53%

The percentage copper will increase from 74% to80.46% over the period.

Globally oil filled transformers will account for

93% of demand throughout the period. Utility Companies overall account for nearly 70%

of purchases; with a regional variation of between60% and 77%.


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Distribution transformer Demand in

MVA 2002 to 2012

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 Cagr

02 to 07

Cagr

07 to 12

Cagr

02 to 12

W. EUROPE 79,950 80,651 79,157 77,497 81,307 83,107 101,215 0.78 4.02 2.39

EASTERN EUROPE 8,739 8,793 9,431 10,452 12,850 13,444 15,551 9.00 2.96 5.93

FSU 17,107 17,380 22,431 25,469 28,632 28,252 37,203 10.55 5.66 8.08

AFRICA 11,686 11,466 16,346 16,080 18,769 15,844 20,131 6.28 4.91 5.59

MIDDLE EAST 13,804 16,676 22,886 28,355 28,391 21,270 29,252 9.03 6.58 7.80

INDIAN SUB CON 45,148 47,403 49,788 54,595 50,011 61,743 80,205 6.46 5.37 5.91

ASIA 269,906 282,763 293,850 308,271 317,021 370,877 467,768 6.56 4.75 5.65

SOUTH AMERICA 13,068 13,514 14,319 16,587 19,684 21,733 26,322 10.71 3.91 7.25

C AM & CARRIBEAN 2,206 2,464 2,698 4,069 5,312 3,948 5,187 12.34 5.61 8.92

NORTH AMERICA 116,113 110,249 120,717 126,898 135,117 136,039 153,510 3.22 2.45 2.83

AUSTRALASIA 2,275 3,182 4,133 4,794 3,754 4,338 4,759 13.78 1.87 7.66

TOTAL 580,001 594,541 635,756 673,068 700,848 760,594 941,104 5.57 4.35 4.96


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Distribution transformer Demand

Number of Units 2002 to 2012

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 cagr

2 to 7

cagr

7 to

12

cagr

2 to 12

WESTERN EUROPE 184,014 183,880 177,616 172,780 181,128 186,098 215,079 0.23% 2.94% 1.57%

EASTERN EUROPE 45,848 46,145 48,975 53,288 63,517 67,224 72,674 7.95% 1.57% 4.71%

FSU 87,780 88,336 115,647 129,484 146,186 139,479 167,552 9.70% 3.74% 6.68%

AFRICA 116,801 105,209 180,918 180,800 195,025 143,122 172,597 4.15% 3.82% 3.98%

MIDDLE EAST 67,444 79,046 105,590 128,582 124,138 91,220 114,424 6.23% 4.64% 5.43%

INDIAN SUB CON 549,617 564,963 584,871 633,148 573,633 694,025 827,227 4.78% 3.57% 4.17%

ASIA 1,989,660 2,063,181 2,118,828 2,200,485 2,239,937 2,585,675 3,017,145 5.38% 3.13% 4.25%

SOUTH AMERICA 126,229 128,755 133,516 148,827 174,223 198,621 219,518 9.49% 2.02% 5.69%

C AM & CARRIBEAN 19,074 24,802 22,899 37,208 55,138 36,943 43,599 14.13% 3.37% 8.62%

NORTH AMERICA 1,170,855 1,100,760 1,197,012 1,252,657 1,324,793 1,325,879 1,457,674 2.52% 1.91% 2.22%

AUSTRALASIA 9,258 12,899 17,146 19,592 16,296 25,810 27,436 22.76% 1.23% 11.48%

TOTAL 4,366,582 4,397,977 4,703,019 4,956,851 5,094,015 5,494,096 6,334,924 4.70% 2.89% 3.79%


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Distribution Transformer Copper

Demand MT 2002 to 2012

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 Cagr

02 to 07

Cagr

07 to 12

Cagr

02 to 12

WESTERN EUROPE 73,513 73,549 74,932 69,867 73,421 76,308 95,415 0.75 4.57 2.64

EASTERN EUROPE 5,938 6,086 6,212 7,178 9,453 9,398 11,297 9.62 3.75 6.64

FSU 13,142 13,631 16,479 19,868 23,674 22,090 30,111 10.95 6.39 8.64

AFRICA 8,077 8,079 11,827 10,527 13,028 11,143 14,038 6.65 4.73 5.68

MIDDLE EAST 11,295 13,394 20,108 22,943 23,073 17,527 23,684 9.19 6.21 7.69

INDIAN SUB CON 47,235 49,148 51,471 58,570 49,942 66,064 86,182 6.94 5.46 6.20

ASIA 198,953 215,924 214,490 222,274 267,932 285,180 369,359 7.47 5.31 6.38

SOUTH AMERICA 7,720 8,042 8,696 10,117 12,524 13,334 16,819 11.55 4.75 8.10

C AM & CARRIB 1,268 1,452 1,576 2,300 3,996 2,408 3,262 13.68 6.26 9.91

NORTH AMERICA 75,025 71,949 77,650 81,124 90,559 88,508 106,443 3.36 3.76 3.56

AUSTRALASIA 1,511 2,127 2,665 3,184 2,628 2,846 3,097 13.49 1.71 7.44

TOTAL 443,678 463,381 486,106 507,950 570,230 594,806 759,707 6.04 5.02 5.53


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Distribution Transformer Copper

Percentage 2002 to 2012

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012

WESTERN EUROPE 74.89% 74.53% 75.66% 74.31% 73.48% 74.62% 74.19% 80.63%

EASTERN EUROPE 67.17% 67.88% 67.23% 67.68% 70.77% 69.07% 69.47% 76.71%

FSU 65.38% 66.46% 63.66% 66.74% 69.73% 67.08% 68.03% 72.68%

AFRICA 70.66% 71.04% 72.00% 69.13% 71.81% 71.75% 71.41% 77.69%

MIDDLE EAST 75.59% 75.75% 75.81% 75.38% 74.97% 76.24% 76.31% 82.58%

INDIAN SUB CON 87.79% 86.56% 87.97% 89.02% 82.56% 86.56% 86.09% 90.32%

ASIA 77.03% 78.33% 75.85% 77.26% 81.84% 78.91% 79.69% 84.30%

SOUTH AMERICA 58.09% 58.08% 59.60% 58.44% 59.85% 59.01% 58.81% 64.88%

C AM & CARRIBEAN 58.77% 60.17% 60.22% 57.89% 69.79% 61.92% 62.89% 67.14%

NORTH AMERICA 65.25% 65.43% 65.70% 64.45% 65.88% 65.33% 65.22% 69.19%

AUSTRALASIA 60.94% 62.47% 57.92% 62.03% 67.76% 63.52% 65.08% 69.33%

TOTAL 74.00% 74.75% 73.64% 73.95% 75.81% 75.05% 75.38% 80.46%


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Percentage of Distribution

Transformers Oil Filled 2002 2012

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012

WESTERN EUROPE 90.04% 89.91% 89.82% 89.71% 89.64% 89.50% 88.96%

EASTERN EUROPE 93.25% 93.12% 93.07% 93.00% 92.75% 92.50% 91.25%

FSU 94.24% 93.78% 93.56% 93.38% 93.45% 93.38% 93.36%AFRICA 95.86% 95.59% 95.66% 95.60% 95.71% 95.56% 95.61%

MIDDLE EAST 95.42% 95.21% 95.11% 95.02% 95.02% 95.01% 95.01%

INDIAN SUB CON 98.00% 98.00% 98.00% 97.99% 98.00% 98.00% 98.00%

ASIA 95.43% 95.44% 95.42% 95.39% 95.38% 95.56% 95.61%

SOUTH AMERICA 90.88% 90.87% 91.05% 91.04% 91.17% 90.99% 91.00%

C AM & CARRIBEAN 95.41% 94.98% 94.87% 94.81% 94.86% 94.71% 94.64%

NORTH AMERICA 90.10% 89.89% 89.68% 89.44% 89.19% 88.96% 88.95%

AUSTRALASIA 93.79% 93.65% 93.35% 93.08% 92.92% 92.92% 92.97%

TOTAL 93.65% 93.66% 93.62% 93.58% 93.44% 93.62% 93.68%


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Percentage of Distribution Transformers

Owned by Utility Companies 2002 to 2012

REGION 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012

WESTERN EUROPE 61.88% 61.84% 61.87% 61.93% 61.90% 61.93% 62.27%

EASTERN EUROPE 70.63% 70.68% 70.95% 71.10% 70.81% 70.82% 70.85%

FSU 74.80% 74.77% 74.72% 74.72% 74.70% 74.82% 74.81%AFRICA 75.23% 75.19% 75.77% 75.84% 75.83% 75.52% 75.61%

MIDDLE EAST 70.13% 69.58% 69.26% 69.68% 68.68% 69.22% 69.00%

INDIAN SUB CON 77.46% 77.47% 77.47% 77.47% 77.46% 77.47% 77.47%

ASIA 71.85% 71.93% 71.90% 71.94% 71.90% 72.26% 72.30%

SOUTH AMERICA 73.21% 73.25% 73.40% 73.23% 73.34% 73.48% 73.47%

C AM & CARRIBEAN 71.90% 71.19% 72.44% 72.78% 73.37% 71.85% 71.57%

NORTH AMERICA 60.59% 60.66% 60.79% 60.81% 60.81% 60.84% 60.84%

AUSTRALASIA 60.13% 60.31% 60.36% 60.31% 60.66% 63.01% 63.50%

TOTAL 68.74% 68.94% 69.03% 69.18% 69.06% 69.54% 69.82%


53/60


Manufacturers Market Shares 2006

Company Market Share

ABB 15.6%

Siemens 10.1%

Alstom 8.8%

Mitsubishi 5.8%

GE 5.0%

Toshiba 4.2%

Hitachi 3.9%

Howard 3.1%

Waukesha 3.0%

Nissin 2.7%

Crompton-Pauwels 2.4%

Schneider 1.9%

Cooper 1.7%

Kuhlman 1.6%

Daihen 1.6%

Others 19.3%

Total 100.0%


54/60


Manufacturers Estimated Sales by

Region 2006 US$000

Company Western

Europe

E Europe

& FSU

Africa Middle

East

Asia-Pacific

S & C

America

& Carrib

North

America

Total

ABB 1,191.4 534.7 85.8 147.1 1,020.6 245.8 841.7 4,067.1

Alstom 1,056.7 294.3 105.6 106.2 399.0 105.9 242.1 2,309.8

Cooper 10.3 6.9 0.0 11.2 8.3 25.9 368.6 431.3

Crompton-Pauwels 247.4 98.5 26.6 37.3 94.9 13.6 120.8 639.1

Daihen 3.8 0.0 0.0 8.7 402.1 0.0 4.2 418.8

GE 23.9 48.6 19.9 32.0 203.5 58.3 915.6 1,301.8

Hitachi 27.3 4.8 11.8 52.7 874.7 4.9 46.8 1,023.1

Howard 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.1 16.1 764.0 804.2

Kuhlman 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 16.8 398.3 419.2

Mitsubishi 18.0 14.1 19.3 42.0 1,316.3 20.1 90.5 1,520.2

Nissin 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.1 585.6 0.0 77.9 706.6

Schneider 99.8 36.9 97.6 50.2 74.6 19.5 111.8 490.4

Siemens 1,037.6 347.8 102.2 192.0 252.6 203.2 510.3 2,645.9

Toshiba 13.7 8.4 1.0 32.2 909.0 8.4 115.2 1,088.0

Waukesha 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.8 39.6 735.7 791.0

Others 387.5 516.1 279.2 291.7 5,172.2 298.6 516.9 7,462.2

Total 4,117.4 1,911.1 749.2 1,046.4 11,357.6 1,076.8 5,860.3 26,118.8


55/60


56/60


Global Efficiency Requirements

USA has enacted the Energy Policy Act 2005 withEnergy Star ratings. Mandatory for DistributionTransformers from 2010 as does China (but to lowerrequirements).

India will have a legal requirement also by 2010. Japan has a voluntary code applying to Transformers

since 2002 Top Runner Mexico has a legal standard; as does Australia, New

Zealand, Canada, Iran, Indonesia and Israel. Several other S American countries are at various

stages of implementation including Argentina, Ecuadorand Peru.

Europe are at a less advanced stage with onlyvoluntary efficiency requirements set by purchasers


57/60


Conclusions on Efficiency

Requirements

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

WESTERN EUROPE

Voluntary only. Discussions may result in legal

requirement circa 2012

EASTERN EUROPE

Informal requirements between vendor

and user

FSU

Informal requirements between vendor and

user

AFRICA Informal requirements between vendor and user

MIDDLE EAST

Some moves generally; in Israel and Iran

mandatory

INDIAN SUB CON Non Mandatory requirements only in India Mandat ory

ASIA

Japan Top Runner

progrmamme 2002 China mandatory

SOUTH AMERICA

Informal requirements between vendor

and user Argentina, Ecuador and Peru considering

C AM &

CARRIBEAN

Mexico introduced MEPS in1999

NORTH AMERICA MEPS in Canada from 2001In USA Energy Star mandatory from

2010

AUSTRALASIA MEPS introduced in Australia as mandatory requirements in 2003; ditto New Zealand


58/60


CONCLUSIONS

Global transformer demand was 1,172GVA in2002 and is expected to reach 2,117GVA in 2012.A cagr of 6.09%

Global Distribution Transformer demand will

increase from 580GVA in 2002 to 941GVA in2012. A cagr of 4.96%

Global copper demand generated was 632 millionMT in 2002 and will have grown to 1,206 millionMT by 2012. A cagr of 6.67%

Global Distribution Transformer demand forcopper will increase from 444,000 MT to 760,000MT over the same timeframe. A cagr of 5.53%


59/60


CONCLUSIONS

Global Core Steel demand generated was 1.47million MT in 2002 and will have grown to 2.56million MT by 2012. A cagr of 5.71%

Distribution Transformer Core Steel demand

generated was 1.10 million MT in 2002 and willhave grown to 1.81 million MT by 2012. A cagr of5.11%

Globally oil filled distribution transformers willaccount for 93% of demand throughout theperiod.

Utility Companies overall account for nearly 70%of distribution transformer purchases; with aregional variation of between 60% and 77%.


60/60

END OFPRESENTATION

Thank you for your attention

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