2010 Annual Utah

Economic Review

Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Downtown Alliance

EDCUtah

Ivory Homes

Utah Foundation

University of Utah

Utah Defense Alliance

Utah State University

Contributors

Utah State University

State Government Agencies

Department of Natural ResourcesDepartment of Workforce ServicesGovernor’s Office of Economic DevelopmentOffice of the Legislative Fiscal AnalystUtah Science, Technology, and Research InitiativeUtah State Office of EducationUtah State Tax CommissionUtah System of Higher Education

Contributors

Governor’s Office of Planning & Budget

John Nixon, Executive Director

Phillip Jeffery, Deputy Director

Mike Mower, State Planning Coordinator

Demographic & Economic Analysis Section

Juliette Tennert

Walt Busse

Peter Donner

Contributors

Peter Donner

Nancy Grisél

Effie Johnson

David Stringfellow

Contributors

Data Highlights

Important Factors

Challenges

Overview

Challenges

Stabilizing Influences

Outlook

Overview

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP: The buyer of a credit swap receives credit protection, whereas the seller of the swap guarantees the credit worthiness of the product. By doing this, the risk of default is transferred from the

holder of the fixed income security to the seller of the swap.

Sources: Investopedia & Google News

QUANTITATIVE EASING: A government monetary policy occasionally used to increase the money supply by buying government securities or other securities from the market. Quantitative easing increases the

money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity.

Sources: Investopedia & Google News

GREEN SHOOTS: A term used to describe signs of economic recovery or positive data during an

economic downturn.

Sources: Investopedia & Google News

Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payroll Employment in Utah

Employment

December 20071.27 million

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total Decline in Nonfarm Payroll Employment from post-2005 Peak to November 2009

Employment

-2.5%

-6.4%

-7.3%-4.6%

-6.8%

-1.7%

-1.2%

-4.6%

-5.8% -3.3%-11.8%

-5.3%

-4.6%-3.4%

-3.8%

-5.2%

Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

-2.6%

-6.6%

-10%

-10%

-3.6%

-4.9%

-6.4%

-5.1%

-4.7%

-2.3%

-3.2%

-3.3%

-7.3%

-6.1%

-2.9%

-2.6%

-5.7%

-6.1%

-5.1%

-2.2%

-3.7%

-5.7%

-6.2%

-6.1%-3.4%

-6.6%

-11.8%

-5.5%

-9.2%

-2.8%

-3.2%

-4.4%

-5.2%

-6.9%

-1.1%

-6.8%

-1.1% to -3.1%

-3.2% to -5.0%

-5.1% to -8.2%

-8.3% to -11.8%

Change in Utah Employment by Industry: 2008 to 2009

Employment

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Change in Utah Employment by Industry: November 2008 to November 2009

Employment

Total Government

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Federal Government

Total Ed. & Health Services

Education

State Unemployment Rates: November 2009

Employment

6.4%

5%

7.2%

7.4%

9.1%11.1%

4.1%

9.2%

8.2%

8%

8.6%14.7%

6.4%6.7%

8.8%

8.2%12.7%

Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

4.1% to 7.0%

7.1% to 9.2%

9.3% to 11.8%

11.9% to 15.9%

8%

12.3%

7.8%8.9%

7%

6.9%

7.2%

12.3%6.3%

6.3%

4.5%

9.5%

6.7%

7.4%

9.6% 10.2%

6.7%

8.5%

10.9%

10.5%

10.8%

6.6%

9.6%

10.3%

14.7%

10.6%

10.6%

12.3%

11.5%

8.4%

7.4%

9.7%

8.2%

8.5%

12.7%

8.7%

7%

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates in Utah and the US

Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Employment

Income

Annual Growth in Utah Average Annual Pay

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Income

Annual Change in Total Personal Income

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Median Existing Home Prices

Housing Market

NV

US

Source: Moody’s Economy.com

UT

US

Foreclosure Rates

Housing Market

NV 9.4%

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association

US 4.5%

UT 3.0%

Construction Employment as a Percent of Total Employment

Construction

Source: Bureau of Economic and Business ResearchSource: Bureau of Economic and Business Research

Utah Single Family Permit History

Construction

Source: University of Utah Bureau of Business & Economic Research

Inflation Adjusted Percent Change

in Combined General and School Fund Revenues

State Revenue

Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

State Revenue

365-day State Revenue Sum: Income Tax

$2.7

$2.8

$2.9

Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

$2.2

$2.3

$2.4

$2.5

$2.6

JAN2008

JUL2008

JAN2009

JUL2009

JAN2010

JUL2010

$2.339

$2.233

State Revenue

365-day State Revenue Sum: Sales and Use Tax

$1.8

$1.9

$2.0

Source: Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget

$1.2

$1.3

$1.4

$1.5

$1.6

$1.7

JAN2008

JUL2008

JAN2009

JUL2009

JAN2010

JUL2010

$1.547

$1.428

Targeted Stimulus

Hachman Index: Ten Most Diversified Economies in the Country

Industry Diversity

Source: GOPB Analysis of Bureau of Economic Analysis Data

International Trade

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Utah Components of Population Change

Population

Source: Utah Population Estimates Committee

Economic DevelopmentEconomic Development

• City Creek Center

• Ebay Computer Center

• NSA Data Center

• Federal Courthouse

• Kennecott Molybdenum Smelter

• Milford Wind Corridor

• Falcon Hill

• UTA FrontRunner South and TRAX

Outlook

Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Committee

Governor’s Office of Governor’s Office of

Planning and BudgetPlanning and Budget

Utah State Capitol ComplexUtah State Capitol Complex

350 North State Street, Suite 150350 North State Street, Suite 150350 North State Street, Suite 150350 North State Street, Suite 150

Salt Lake City, UT 84114Salt Lake City, UT 84114--22102210

(801) 538(801) 538--10271027

http://governor.utah.gov/deahttp://governor.utah.gov/dea

dea@utah.govdea@utah.gov