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Political Smackdown: Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle It Out on Social Media Presented By: Jim Reynolds j [email protected] twitter.com/jimmyrey
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Political Smackdown: Senate and Gubernatorial Candidates Battle It Out on Social Media
Presented By: Jim [email protected]
twitter.com/jimmyrey
Setup Senate Candidates from IL, CA, FL, DE, CT, KY, LA, NV, OH & PA Gubernatorial Candidates from AZ, CA, CO, FL, IL, MA, TX, PA & NY Categories
State Race (Senate or Governor) Party Affiliation (Independent, Republican or Democrat)
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis 560K social media
mentions of candidates since 3rd week of September
Volume steadily increasing leading up to elections
Conversation follows a weekly trend with decrease in chatter on weekends
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis Updated 11-3-
2010
882k total mentions of candidates with a peak yesterday of 56k mentions
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis Microblogs – 36%
Social Networks – 20%
Media Types – Other (Mainstream media) – 19.3%
Message boards – 18.8%
All Other Types – Less than 10%
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
AnalysisUpdated 11-3-2010
There was virtually no change in the percentages of social media types
The largest media type increase was Microblogs (Twitter) with an additional 116k mentions
Analysis: Microblog (Twitter) & Social Network (Facebook et al) mentions follow identical patterns Message Board / Forum has picked up volume significantly leading up to the election
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
Analysis – UPDATED 11-3-2010 Microblogs (Twitter) had the largest number of mentions on election day Public Social Network Chatter (Facebook) also followed a similar pattern on election day
Election 2010 – Senate & Gubernatorial Races
christine o'donnell
harry reid
sharron angle
rand paul
barbara boxer
chris coons
carly fiorina
charlie crist
linda mcmahon
jack conway
marco rubio
joe sestak
mark kirk
pat toomey
kendrick meek
richard blumenthal
Alexi giannoulias
david vitter
lee fisher
rob portman
charlie melancon
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
Election 2010 – Senate Races
Analysis: Christine O’Donnell has had over 100K mentions since mid-September Harry Reid & Sharron Angle, both Senatorial candidates from Nevada rank 2nd & 3rd, respectively Overall, the Republicans lead the conversation largely because of Christine O’Donnell (DE)
Democrat35%
Independent4%
Republican61%
Number of Mentions Chart
Percentage of Conversation
Democrat38%
Independent6%
Republican56%
christine o'donnell
rand paul
harry reid
sharron angle
barbara boxer
carly fiorina
chris coons
marco rubio
charlie crist
jack conway
linda mcmahon
joe sestak
kendrick meek
pat toomey
mark kirk
richard blumenthal
Alexi giannoulias
david vitter
rob portman
lee fisher
charlie melancon
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000
Number of Social Media Mentions
Election 2010 – Senate Races - Update
Analysis:– UPDATED 11-3-2010 Christine O’Donnell is still #1 with over 140k social media mentions Rand Paul jump from 4th to 2nd with nearly 100k social media mentions
Percentage of Conversation
meg whitmanjerry brown
carl paladinorick perryrick scott
andrew cuomobill white
jan breweralex sink
tom tancredodeval patrick
pat quinnbill bradytim cahill
tom emmercharlie bakertom corbett
dan maesmark dayton
terry goddarddan onorato
john hickenloopertom hornerscott cohen
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000
Democrat40%
Independent5%
Republican55%
Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races
Analysis Meg Whitman is the second most talked about candidate overall (after Christine O’Donnell) Gubernatorial races in California, New York & Texas are most discussed In the Senate races, there is more conversation about Republicans but not by a large margin
Number of Mentions Chart
Percentage of Conversation
Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races - Update
Analysis UPDATED 11-3-2010 Very minimal changes from pre election except for 2% increase for Dem overall
Number of Mentions Chart
Percentage of Conversation
meg whitmanjerry brown
carl paladinorick scottrick perry
andrew cuomobill whitealex sink
jan brewertom tancredodeval patrick
pat quinnbill brady
charlie bakertom emmertom corbett
mark daytontim cahill
dan maesterry goddard
john hickenlooperdan onorato
tom hornerscott cohen
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
Democrat42%
Independent7%
Republican52%
Delaware
Nevada
Kentucky
California
Florida
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Louisiana
Ohio
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
Election 2010 – Senate Races
Analysis Delaware is the
most talked about Senate Race since mid-September due largely to Christine O’Donnell
Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky both beat California
Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed on social media
Election 2010 – Senate Races - Update
Analysis Delaware is the
most talked about Senate Race since mid-September due largely to Christine O’Donnell
Interestingly, Nevada & Kentucky both beat California
Ohio’s Senate race is the least discussed on social media
Delaware
Nevada
Kentucky
California
Florida
Connecticut
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Louisiana
Ohio
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
California
New York
Texas
Florida
Massachusetts
Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races
Analysis Unlike the CA
Senate race, the Gubernatorial race in California is more frequently discussed than the races in NY & TX combined
New York’s race has had a major increase recently due to a controversial Carl Paladino
Surprisingly, Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last place
Election 2010 – Gubernatorial Races - Update
Analysis Unlike the CA
Senate race, the Gubernatorial race in California is more frequently discussed than the races in NY & TX combined
New York’s race has had a major increase recently due to a controversial Carl Paladino
Surprisingly, Pennsylvania ‘s Senate race is in last place
California
New York
Texas
Florida
Massachusetts
Arizona
Colorado
Illinois
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
Election 2010 – Top 5 Senate Races
Nevada:Sharron AngleHarry Reid
Kentucky: Rand Paul
Jack Conway
California: Carly Fiorina
Barbara Boxer
Delaware:Chris CoonsChristine O’Donnell
Florida:Kendrick MeekMarco RubioCharlie Crist
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
barbara boxercarly fiorina
57%
43%
Series1 89.64%
90.56%
California Senate Race
Analysis Barbara Boxer leads
Carly Fiorina in favorability*
The volume of conversation around Boxer and Fiorina is roughly the same, but their favorability ratings differ
This race appears to be leaning towards the incumbent Boxer
* Favorability is measured by diving the sum of positive and neutral mentions by the sum of positive, neutral and negative mentions
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Carly Fiorina vs. Barbara BoxerFavorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
California Senate Race
Analysis As we predicted
Barbara Boxer won kept her Senate Seat
* Favorability is measured by diving the sum of positive and neutral mentions by the sum of positive, neutral and negative mentions
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
barbara boxer
carly fiorina
65%
35%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%Carly Fiorina VS Barbara Boxer
Series1 90.30%
89.65%
44%
37%
19%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
marco rubiokendrick meekcharlie crist
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100.00%
20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%
100.00%120.00%
Marco Rubio vs. Kendrick Meek vs. Charlie Crist
Florida Senate Race
Analysis Kendrick Meek leads
all candidates in favorability while Charlie Crist is last
Interestingly, Crist has the largest volume of conversation while Meek has the least
The volume would suggest that the race is between Rubio & Crist
Series1 91.75%
92.85%
89.76%Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Series1 91.77%
92.99%
90.12%
44%
37%
19%
Florida Senate Race – Update
Analysis As we predicted the
Race was certainly between Rubio and Crist, but Rubio won in a landslide
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
marco rubio
kendrick meek
charlie crist
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Christine O'Donnell vs. Chris Coons
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
christine o'donnellchris coons
84%
16%
Series1 86.84%
88.47%
Delaware Senate Race
Analysis Chris Coons has a
slight advantage over Christine O’Donnell in terms of favorability *
O’Donnell dominates the conversation with 84% of the total posts
This race is leaning toward Chris Coons
*Negative commentary is tied to O’Donnell
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
Delaware Senate Race - Update
Analysis As we predicted
Chris Coons won this seat for the Democrats
*Negative commentary is tied to O’Donnell
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
christine o'donnell
chris coons
83%
17%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Christine O'Donnell VS. Chris Coons
Series1 85.70%
87.06%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100.00%
20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%
100.00%120.00%
Rand Paul vs. Jack Conway
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
rand pauljack conaway
74%
26%
Series1 87.05%
83.62%
Kentucky Senate Race
Analysis Jack Conway has a
4% favorability lead to Rand Paul
Rand Paul owns 74% of the conversation vs. 26% by Jack Conway
If Rand Paul continues to trend upward in favorability he could win the race.
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
Kentucky Senate Race
Analysis As we predicted
Rand Paul won this seat and overall was the 2nd most talked about candidate
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
rand paul
jack conaway
81%
19%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Rand Paul VS Jack Conway
Series1 87.89%
84.52%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100.00%
20.00%40.00%60.00%80.00%
100.00%120.00%
Sharron Angle vs. Harry Reid
sharron angle harry reid
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
0100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
sharon angleharry reid
57%
43%
Series1 86.61%
87.99%
Nevada Senate Race
Analysis Harry Reid leads
Sharron Angle in favorability
Harry Reid also has a 14% lead in volume of conversation
This race looks very good for Harry Reid
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
Nevada Senate Race
Analysis As we predicted
Harry Reid kept his seat and defeated Sharron Angle
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
500100015002000250030003500400045005000
sharon angle
harry reid
57%
43%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00% Sharron Angle VS Harry Reid
Series1
86.32%
87.31%
Election 2010 – Top 5 Gubernatorial Races
Massachusetts:Tim Cahill
Deval PatrickCharlie Baker
Texas:Rick PerryBill White
Florida: Rick ScottAlex Sink
California:Jerry BrownMeg Whitman
New York:Andrew CuomoCarl Paladino
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100.00%
10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%
100.00%
Meg Whitman vs. Jerry Brown
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
meg whitmanjerry brown
55%45%
Series1 85.05%
87.39%
Chart Title
California Gubernatorial Race
Analysis Jerry Brown leads
Meg Whitman in favorability
Whitman is beating Brown by 5% in volume of conversation
This is one of the most challenging races to predict
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%
100.00%
Meg Whitman VS Jerry Brown
meg whitman jerry brown
California Gubernatorial Race – Update
Analysis As we predicted this
race was going to be very close and it was with Jerry Brown winning out over Meg Whitman
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
meg whitman
jerry brown
55%45%
Series1 85.05%
87.39%
Chart Title
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
carl paladino
andrew cuomo
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100.00%
10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%
100.00%
Andrew Cuomo vs. Carl Paladino
55%45%
Series1 85.21%
88.81%
New York Gubernatorial Race
Analysis Andrew Cuomo
leads Carl Paladino by more than 3% in favorability
Paladino leads Cuomo by 10% in volume of conversation, due largely to a recent spike
This race appears to be in favor of Cuomo
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%80.00%90.00%
100.00%
Andrew Cuomo VS Carl Paladino
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
carl paladino
andrew cuomo
New York Gubernatorial Race - Update
Analysis As we predicted
Andrew Cuomo won over Carl Paladino
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
Series1 85.21%
88.81%
65%
35%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
rick perrybill white
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Rick Perry vs. Bill White
58%
42%
Series1 90.53%
91.49%
Chart Title
Texas Gubernatorial Race
Analysis Bill White has a
slight advantage over Rick Perry in favorability
Perry has a 16% lead over Bill White in chatter
It appears that Democrat White has a chance in the Texas race
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
Series1 90.53%
91.49%
Chart Title
Texas Gubernatorial Race - Update
Analysis As we incorrectly
predicted we felt that Bill White had a stronger chance in this race which he didn't
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Rick Perry VS Bill White
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
rick perrybill white
56%44%
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Rick Scott vs. Alex Sink
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
rick scottalex sink
64%
36%
Series1 90.68%
91.17%
Chart Title
Florida Gubernatorial Race
Analysis Alex Sink has a slight
.6% lead over Rick Scott in favorability
Rick Scott racks up nearly 30% more conversations than Alex Sink
This race appears to be in Rick Scott’s favor
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
Florida Gubernatorial Race - Update
Analysis As we predicted this
race was Rick Scott’s to win, which he did.
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Rick Scott VS Alex Sink
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
rick scottalex sink
61%
39%
Series1 90.68%
91.17%
Chart Title
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
charlie baker
deval patrick
tim cahill
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Charlie Barker vs. Deval Patrick vs. Tim Cahill
43%
30%
27%
Series1 92.30%
93.07%
91.11%
Chart Title
Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race
Analysis Deval Patrick leads
in favorability over the other 2 candidates but is followed closely by Charlie Barker & Tim Cahill
Deval Patrick is in the lead with volume of conversation as well
This race seems to be in Patrick’s favor
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
120.00%
Charlie Barker VS Deval Patrick VS Tim Cahill
43%
30%
27%
Series1 92.30%
93.07%
91.11%
Chart Title
Massachusetts Gubernatorial Race - Update
Analysis As we predicted
Deval Patrick kept his governorship.
Favorability Chart
Number of Mentions Chart
Average percent of posts
Percentage of Conversation
9/18/2
010
9/20/2
010
9/22/2
010
9/24/2
010
9/26/2
010
9/28/2
010
9/30/2
010
10/2/2
010
10/4/2
010
10/6/2
010
10/8/2
010
10/10/2
010
10/12/2
010
10/14/2
010
10/16/2
010
10/18/2
010
10/20/2
010
10/22/2
010
10/24/2
010
10/26/2
010
10/28/2
010
10/30/2
010
11/1/2
0100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
charlie baker
deval patrick
tim cahill
