2010/11 ENROLLMENT ESTIMATES

2010/112010/11ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENT

ESTIMATESESTIMATESBoard MeetingBoard Meeting

January 12, 2010January 12, 2010

LODI UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICTBusiness Services

Prepared by: Douglas Barge & Staff

Y: Business Services/Budget/2010-11/Adopted/Enrollment Projections/B1-12-10 Enrollment Projections

Y:Business Services/Budget/2010-11/Adopted/Enrollment Projections -

Executive SummaryExecutive Summary• Enrollment projections are one of the very first steps in Enrollment projections are one of the very first steps in

building the budget for the coming yearbuilding the budget for the coming year

• Our student population continued to drop in 2009/10 as was Our student population continued to drop in 2009/10 as was projectedprojected

• This trend is expected to continue into next year:This trend is expected to continue into next year: 149 fewer elementary students 37 less middle school students 99 less senior high school students For a total of 285 fewer students overall and loss of 266 Average Daily

Attendance (ADA)

• The District still needs to be mind-full of when this declining The District still needs to be mind-full of when this declining ends because it could be an abrupt turnaroundends because it could be an abrupt turnaround


Table of ContentsTable of Contents Page No.Page No.

I.I. Opening CommentsOpening Comments 1 II.II. History of EnrollmentsHistory of Enrollments

Elementary Schools 2 Middle Schools 3 High Schools 4

III.III. Enrollment ProjectionsEnrollment Projections 2010/11 Projected Enrollment by Grade 5 – 7

IV.IV. Average Daily AttendanceAverage Daily Attendance 8 – – 9

V.V. AppendixAppendix A – 1

B1 – B4

i


Opening CommentsOpening Comments• Projected enrollments are the key building block Projected enrollments are the key building block

for developing and administering a school budgetfor developing and administering a school budget

They are used to estimate:

• District income available to pay its bills

• The greatest cost elements of the budget – Staff; Supplies and Equipment

• The projected enrollments can help warn the The projected enrollments can help warn the District of financial concerns and pressures that District of financial concerns and pressures that need to be addressedneed to be addressed

• Projected enrollments can provide a tool for the Projected enrollments can provide a tool for the District to predict opportunities for making District to predict opportunities for making improvements improvements

1

The HISTORY The HISTORY OF OF

ENROLLMENTSENROLLMENTS

II


Elementary SchoolElementary SchoolEnrollment Growth HistoryEnrollment Growth History

2

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

C

2010

G

CBEDS by Year

Stu

den

ts


Middle SchoolMiddle SchoolEnrollment Growth HistoryEnrollment Growth History

3

(150)

(100)

(50)

0

50

100

150

200

250

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2010

G

CBEDS by Year

Stu

den

ts


High SchoolHigh SchoolEnrollment Growth HistoryEnrollment Growth History

4

(200)

(100)

0

100

200

300

400

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2010

G

CBEDS by Year

Stu

den

ts

2010/11 2010/11 ENROLLMENT ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONSPROJECTIONS

III


2010/11 Projected Enrollment by 2010/11 Projected Enrollment by Grade LevelGrade Level

5

10/6/2006 10/3/2007 10/2/2008 Projected 10/7/2009 Projected Projected for 2010/11GRADE Enrolled % Inc. Enrolled % Inc. Enrolled % Inc. Enrolled % Inc. Cohort Class Grade Growth Committed

ELEMENTARY Kindgarten 2,207 101.09% 2,231 97.04% 2,165 99.39% 2,176 98.89% 2,152 2,184 2,168 2,168 2,168

105.53% 103.63% 103.84% 104.05%

1st Grade 2,166 2,329 2,312 2,199 2,264 2,207 2,207 2,207 2,200 101.99% 97.12% 99.25% 99.00%

2nd Grade 2,163 2,209 2,262 2,212 2,177 2,209 2,224 2,177 2,170 100.37% 98.46% 99.49% 99.29%

3rd Grade 2,133 2,171 2,175 2,218 2,196 2,220 2,239 2,196 2,189 100.75% 96.64% 98.73% 98.37%

4th Grade 2,185 2,149 2,098 2,134 2,182 2,138 2,121 2,138 2,114 102.06% 100.79% 101.58% 101.40%

5th Grade 2,154 2,230 2,166 2,123 2,164 2,112 2,115 2,115 2,105 101.62% 97.58% 99.21% 99.07%

6th Grade 2,240 2,189 2,176 2,110 2,103 2,097 2,077 2,103 2,077

TOTAL ELEMENTARY 15,248 101.71% 15,508 99.01% 15,354 105.01% 15,172 108.71% 15,238 15,167 15,151 15,104 15,023 260 (154) (182) 66 (5) (21) (68) (149)

(4th yr - 1st yr)/3 + prior yr class = Class Straight Line Estimate

3rd Grd Cohort = 3rd Grade X 3rd Grade Cohort = 3rd Grade Cohort Projection

Grade Level Straight Line Estimate = (4th yr-1st yr)/4 + Prior Years Actual


2010/11 Projected Enrollment 2010/11 Projected Enrollment by Grade Levelby Grade Level

6


MIDDLE SCHOOLS97.01% 96.35% 96.97% 96.77%

7th Grade 2,102 2,173 2,109 2,124 2,042 2,116 2,130 2,130 2,116 100.14% 99.08% 99.78% 99.61%

8th Grade 2,213 2,105 2,153 2,098 2,116 2,078 2,069 2,069 2,069

TOTAL MIDDLE 4,315 99.14% 4,278 99.63% 4,262 98.28% 4,222 102.44% 4,158 4,194 4,199 4,199 4,185(37) (16) (40) (64) (28) (23) (23) (37)

SENOR HIGH101.31% 97.20% 98.69% 98.63%

9th Grade 2,158 2,242 2,046 2,109 2,069 2,090 2,097 2,069 2,097 100.37% 100.31% 100.04% 100.19%

10th Grade 2,155 2,166 2,249 2,041 2,113 1,997 2,012 2,113 2,042 91.18% 89.47% 89.79% 89.92%

11th Grade 1,925 1,965 1,938 2,010 1,835 1,990 2,031 1,990 1,990 87.48% 87.94% 88.11% 87.95%

12th Grade 1,692 1,684 1,728 1,702 1,768 1,634 1,705 1,634 1,634

TOTAL SENIOR HIGH 7,930 101.60% 8,057 98.81% 7,961 98.76% 7,862 99.02% 7,785 7,711 7,845 7,806 7,763127 (96) (99) (77) (151) (17) (56) (99)


2010/11 Projected Enrollment 2010/11 Projected Enrollment by Grade Levelby Grade Level

7


Special Educationand Other ProgramsSp Ed K-6 436 93.35% 407 97.54% 397 98.01% 405 97.08% 393 404 397 405 405Sp Ed 7-8 146 108.22% 158 105.06% 166 104.72% 156 105.42% 164 161 159 156 156Sp Ed 9-12 352 82.95% 292 85.96% 251 91.07% 289 88.01% 254 277 273 289 289Sp Ed All Other 44 90.91% 40 202.50% 81 151.37% 113 158.34% 179 128 130 113 113

Community Day 183 95.63% 175 106.86% 187 101.88% 170 102.50% 174 171 167 170 170Continuation 309 90.29% 279 102.87% 287 97.52% 246 98.10% 241 234 230 246 246Horizon 21 80.95% 17 82.35% 14 95.08% 26 88.48% 23 26 27 26 26

Indep. Stdy K-8 45 102.22% 46 67.39% 31 81.41% 32 80.20% 26 24 29 32 32Indep. Stdy 9-12 400 90.75% 363 99.45% 361 95.70% 380 96.12% 365 359 375 380 380

Serna Charter 284 101.76% 289 102.77% 297 103.94% 290 103.19% 299 304 292 290 290Migrant 75 62.67% 47 0.00% 38.01% 29.45% 0 (24) 19 0 0Opportunity 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 0 0 0Middle College High 232 105.17% 244 103.28% 252 103.36% 242 103.64% 251 249 245 242 242Home & Hospital 31 145.16% 45 97.78% 44 112.93% 29 113.25% 33 33 28 29 29All Others 50 0 43 63 50 50

Total Sp Ed/ Other 2,558 93.90% 2,402 98.58% 2,368 102.53% 2,428 2,402 2,389 2,396 2,428 2,428(156) (34) 60 (26) (39) (32) 0 0

LUSD GRAND TOTAL 30,051 100.65% 30,245 99.01% 29,945 99.13% 29,684 29,583 29,461 29,591 29,537 29,399194 (300) (261) (101) (223) (93) (147) (285)


2010/11 Enrollment Projections2010/11 Enrollment Projections

A. PROGRAMSPROJECTEDSTUDENTS CHANGE

2009/10CBEDS ADA

1. Regular K-6 15,172 (149)

2. Regular 7-8 (37)4,222

3. Regular 9-12 (99)7,862

15,023

4,185

(141)

(34)

(91)7,763

4. All Other Programs 2,138 2,138

5. Serna Charter School 290 290

6. Total K-12 Increases 29,399 (285)29,684 (266)

8


RecommendedRecommended

A. Elementary Schools 15,02315,172(149)(149)

B. Middle Schools 4,1854,222(37)(37)

C. Senior High Schools 7,7637,862(99)(99)

D. All Others 2,4282,428(0)(0)

E. Total Enrollment 29,39929,684(285)(285)(261)(261)

Grade Level Committed

15,104(68)(68)

4,199(23)(23)

7,806(56)(56)

2,428(0)(0)

29,537

(147)(147)

GrowthCBEDS

9


Thank you for Thank you for your Attention!your Attention!

V

APPENDIXAPPENDIX

VI


Total Enrollment Growth Total Enrollment Growth HistoryHistory

A-1

(400)

(200)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2010

G

CBEDS by Year

Stu

de

nts


Elementary SchoolsElementary Schools

14,700

15,000

15,300

15,600

07/08 Budget 07/08 Actual 08/09 Budget 08/09 Actual

09/10 Budget 09/10 Actual 10/11 Committed 10/11 Growth

B-1


Middle Schools Middle Schools

4,150

4,200

4,250

4,300

4,350

4,400

4,450

4,500

4,550



B-2


High Schools High Schools

7,500

7,700

7,900

8,100

8,300

1st W

eek

2nd W

eek

3rd W

eek

4th

Wee

k

5th

Wee

k

6th

Wee

k

7th

Wee

k

8th

Wee

k

9th

Wee

k

CEBDSNov

.

Dec.

Feb.

April

May

07/08 Budget 07/08 Actual 08/09 Budget 08/09 Actual09/10 Budget 09/10 Actual 10/11 Committed 10/11 Growth

B-3


Other Programs & Other Programs & Schools Schools

1,800

2,000

2,200

1st W

eek

2nd W

eek

3rd W

eek

4th

Wee

k

5th

Wee

k

6th

Wee

k

7th

Wee

k

8th

Wee

k

9th

Wee

k

CBEDSNov

.

Dec.

Feb.

April

May



Does not include NPS or SernaDoes not include NPS or Serna B-4

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2010/11 ENROLLMENT ESTIMATES

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