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Innovation on the Horizon for Offshore Wind Logistics
Research Note
Wind Power Sector
June 2011
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Executive Summary
2
Long term growth opportunities are spurring innovation in the nascent offshore wind market
Offshore wind power growth expected to take off in 2011
Driven by the European Unions 20% by 2020 mandates, but also impacted byincreased ambitions from China, over 26GW is due to be installed globally from2011 to 2016.
Near shore, shallow development opportunities will diminish
Analysis of the EUs project pipeline shows a clear trend of projects movingfarther offshore and into deeper waters as time passes.
New design concepts emerging for offshore logistics challenges
A rash of new turbine installation vessels and floating foundationconcepts have been emerging ahead of what is expected to be a keygrowth segment in the global wind space.
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Global Offshore Wind Demand Set for Significant Upswing
3
Global Offshore Market Outlook, 20062016Source: MAKE ConsultingQ2 Market Outlook Update
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e
Americas Asia Pacific European Union
Ample onshore resources and
premium cost of offshore wind limit
global uptake
EU offshore segment matures
China increasing offshore targets
Onshore wind dominates Americas
An
nualTurbineInstallations(MW)
Note:Annualinstallationsindicative
ofgrid
conn
ected
turbines
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Offshore vs. Onshore Wind: CAPEX comparison
4
Typical Onshore versus Offshore Wind Capital Cost Breakdown (EUR)Source: MAKE Consulting
4
Turbine
70%
Civil
11%
Electrical
8%
Substation
6%Mgt.
1%
Install &Logistics
1%
Insurance
1%Eng.
1%
Other1%
Turbine
45%
Foundations
22%
Electrical
7%
Substation
7%
Management
1%
Install &
Logistics
15%
Insurance
2%
Engineering
1%
Onshore
1.15M/MW
Offshore
3.1M/MW
Cost reduction is imperative within the offshore wind space to ensure its long term success
against alternate power generation technologies logistics will be a key focus area.
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Current and Future Offshore Project Characteristics
5
Evolution of EU Offshore Wind Power Plant Depth and Distance from ShoreSource: MAKE Consulting
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
MaxWaterDe
pth(m)
Distance from Shore (km)
Planned Operational
Offshore logistics will become even more challenging as wind power plants move farther from
shore and deeper in depth
Vessel speed and payload capacity
imperative to develop distant wind power
plants economically
Deep water offshore wind development calls for
increased use of jacketed foundations and possibly
floating technology
Near shore, shallow depth wind power
plants largely developed
NOTE: Water depths based on max water depth, not
average water depth at site
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Saturation Pushes Projects Farther, Deeper Offshore
6
Impact of Increased Project Distances and DepthsSource: MAKE Consulting
Increasing ProjectWater Depth
Need for jackets ortripods results in lessfoundations per trip
Use of jackets and tripodsincreases pile driving time
as well
Deeper waters increasejack-up time per site, may
exceed jack-up vesselcapabilities
Increasing DistanceFrom Shore
Installation vessel transittime increases
Increased export cablingtime as additional cable is
required
Increased weatherdowntime as sea
conditions often worsenfar from shore
Logistics CostDrivers
Greater depths drive need for larger, faster vessels as well as some deepwater substructure
alternatives for especially challenging sites.
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Self-Propelled Install Vessel (SPIV) Serve Todays Needs
7
New purpose built self-propelled jack-up vessels will be able to achieve install rates of less
than 2 days per site but asset owners still pushing for more
Loading Time
Transit Time
InterarrayTime
Turbine &
FoundationInstall 2400h
1000h
90h
1200h
Wind Power Plant
Installation Task Times (SPIV)Source: MAKE Consulting Loading Time:Time required to transfer wind turbine components and
turbine foundation from port loading facility to vessel
o Vessel payload capacity and port material handling drive this parameter
Transit Time:Time required f0r fully loaded vessel to travel from port to
the wind farm and back
o Vessel payload capacity defines number of round trips required from port to wind
farm while vessel speed helps define this parameter
Interarray Time: Time required for jack-up vessel to jack up & down from
service height, preload its legs and move from turbine site to turbine site
o Floating vessels will have lower time requirements as jacking and preload of
vessels jacking legs are not required
Turbine & Foundation Install Time: Time needed for upending, setting and
piling monopiles and mechanical erection of turbine and transition pieces.o Timing is strongly influenced by crew efficiency and to a lesser degree crane
capacity, as specialized lifting equipment is not prevalent in the market
Key Definitions
Note:
Latest generation SPIV employed
360MW wind farm
3.6MW turbines and monopiles
25m average project depth
20km distance from port
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New Installation Vessel Overview
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New Install Vessel Concepts Abound, but Uptake Limited
9
Vessel Industry Barriers to EntrySource: MAKE Consulting
GainingTrack
Record
CrewTraining
Huge CapitalExpenditure
Barriers exist,but can beovercome
OffshoreWind MarketUncertainty
EstablishedDeveloper &
UtilityRelations
Long VesselBuild Cycle
Size and duration of the investment are
not suitable for smaller organizations
o EUR 300 Million and 2-3yr build cycle
o Strong corporate backing like that of Swire
Pacific or Hochtief Construction is critical
Market demands purpose built vessels, but
overexposure to wind may doom a smallercompany
o Off-ramps do exist in the oil & gas industry
as well as the offshore wind O&M space
Track record and established relationships
are critical
o End users will look to reduce risk to max
extent possible, especially as project sizesand capital expenditures increase
o Gaining approval to conduct trial
operations of Unproven design concepts
may be difficult
Barriers to Entry
The dramatic increase in new offshore wind vessel investments over the past 18-24 months has been focused
on traditional self-propelled jack-up vessels from larger players like Swire and Hochtief
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Ability of vessel to reduce installation timesin excess of todays state of the art self-
propelled install vessels
Indicates ability of vessel to support
installation need s for monopiles, tripods,
tripiles and jacket foundations
Indicates ability of the vessel to support a multitude
of tasks such as transport, turbine service, oil & gas
duty, etc
Indicates the level of specialization required in
port facility to accommodate the vessels
loading/unloading mechanism
Indicates ability of vessel to support
installation activities for wind turbines of
various nameplate ratings, technology, as
well as transport orientation
3 2 1
Potential Install Time
Savings
Strong upside potential over most advanced
purpose built jackup vessels
Similar performance to soon-to-be released
vessels (MV Adventure)No advantage over existing vessel fleet
Turbine Tech FlexibilityCapable of installing all turbine types in
multiple configurations
Customized around a singular turbine type or
turbine orientation Cannot install wind turbines
Foundation Tech Flexibility Capable of installing all foundation typesCustomized around a singular foundation
typeCannot install foundations
Mission Flexibility
Can support installation, transportation and
service operations within wind while also
capable le of supporting adjacent industries
Can support installation, transportation and
service operations within wind industry
Can only support wind turbine or foundation
installation activities
Port Flexibility
Requires no port facility modification in order
to achieve benefits of chosen installation
vessel equipment
Requires minor port facility modification to
support ships transfermechanism or support
onshore turbine commissioning
Requires major port facility modification to
support ships transfermechanism and
support onshore turbine commissioning
Explanation of Analysis
Port
Flexibility
Mission
Flexibility
Potential InstallationTime Saving
Turbine
Technology
Flexibility
Foundation
Technology
Flexibility
Install times include loading/unloading ofvessel, transit times, & turbine/foundation
installation times
Analysis of New Installation Vessel Concepts
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Strabag Applying Integrated Approach to Market Entry
11
Strabag Carrier Vessel & FoundationsSource: Strabag (images) Investing in development of its own offshore wind power
plants, complements its construction competence bundled
in STRABAG Offshore Wind GmbH
Planning tightly integrated value chain engagement from
foundation design/manufacture to port assembly facility to
installation services
Massive transportation load, as foundation and fully
assembled turbine are carried out at once
Taking into account considerations of transporting
foundation and turbine elements in a single trip, the
vessels payload limitations will require a huge number of
trips from port to site
Technology Highlights
Integrated approach necessary as limited payload capacity of vessel may
not yield installation cost savings Port Flexibility Mission Flexibility
Potential Installation
Time Saving
TurbineInstallation
Flexibility
FoundationInstallation
Flexibility
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Windlifter More of a Design Exercise v. Commercial Product
12
Windlifter Vessel ConceptSource: Windlifter (images) Joint development effort of Dutch Shipbuilder Ulstein
Group and IDEA Heavy Equipment
Primary differentiator is proposed skidding mechanism to
move turbines from ships deck to turbine foundation
Lack of heave compensation and other motion
compensation is notable, especially given the top heavy
nature of wind turbines
Inability to perform foundation or turbine O&M worklimits addressable market
Method of sea fastening for turbine while in transit is
unknown, and may require specialized port equipment
Technology Highlights
Turbine transfer mechanism focused on simplicity, but may introduce
concern on stability of transfer mechanism Port Flexibility Mission Flexibility
Potential Installation
Time Saving
TurbineTechnology
Flexibility
FoundationTechnology
Flexibility
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Forward Integration of Critical Component Supplier
13
Huisman Wind Turbine ShuttleSource: Husiman (images) Huisman is a privately held supplier of heavy construction
equipment (i.e. heavy lift ship cranes)
Compensating for small payload with increased transit
speed (14 knots) and speed of turbine installation
(Huisman estimates 2 hrs/turbine)
Vessel stability requires a myriad of sophisticated motion
compensation technologies in addition to typical dynamic
positioning technology
Installation also requires a mooring concept whereby theship is directly connected to the foundation
Unknown impact to foundation design/construction
Unclear if pile driving operations are feasible
Technology Highlights
Port Flexibility Mission Flexibility
Potential Installation
Time Saving
TurbineInstallation
Flexibility
FoundationInstallation
Flexibility
SWATH style vessel built for speed and stability, but limited payload
capacity requires frequent trips
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Focused Foundation Installer from NorWind
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NorWind Foundation Vessel ConceptSource: NorWind (images) NorWind AS designs, fabricates, and installs foundations
for offshore wind turbines.
One converted DP vessel with two special handling
packages focused on reducing installation costs for
jacketed foundations
Design concept is centered upon experience gained at
Alpha Ventus
o Pre-piling and installation of jacket foundations
o Combine function of eleven vessels into a singular vessel to
increase efficiency, reduce spread
Innovative piling template with integrated monitoring and
survey technology and four winch deployment system for
jackets are main differentiators
Technology Highlights
Unclear if significant advantages will be gained over the next
generation of jack-up vessels to be delivered in 2013 timeframe Port Flexibility Mission Flexibility
Potential Installation
Time Saving
TurbineInstallation
Flexibility
FoundationInstallation
Flexibility
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Focused Foundation Installer from IHC Merwede
15
IHC Merwede Turbine Install VesselSource: IHC (images) IHC Merwede specializes in designing and building state-
of-the-art offshore and dredging vessels, and handling
equipment
Combines key success factors of a self-propelled jack-up
vessel with innovative lift/transfer systems
o Transit speed at 10knots and max operating depth of
45m falls below planned best-in-class jack-up vessels
o Rotating hydraulic lift/transfer system to reduce
turbine installation time and minimize HSE concerns
o Port equipment specialization should be minimized
Purpose built for turbine installation only, which reduces
overall utility of the vessel
Technology Highlights
An ambitious hybrid approach that can build upon existing industry
know-how and lessons learned Port Flexibility Mission Flexibility
Potential Installation
Time Saving
TurbineInstallation
Flexibility
FoundationInstallation
Flexibility
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Self-Propelled Jack-up Vessel Define New Standards
o Faster vessels capable of carrying larger payloads and installing them at greater projectdepths are being delivered and deployed to todays offshore wind farms
o End users comfortable with technology and capabilities
Advanced Installation Concepts Will Have limited Uptake
o Significant investment in SPIV installation technology adds additional challenges for new
vessel conceptso Marginal increases in installation efficiencies will not be enough to warrant investment
in unproven technologies
o Transportation of fully assembled turbines over long distances has not been
accomplished and introduces concerns over the impact of transportation loads to the
wind turbine
o Integrated approaches combining new foundation technologies and loading/installationmethods may offer enough financial benefits to be considered
Conclusions
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Floating Foundation Technology
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Increased Depth Drives Shifts in Foundation Technology
18
Gravity Monopile Tripod Jacket
Description
Re-enforced concrete Steel structure Heavy steel structure Lattice steel structure
Max Water
Depth30 meters 25-35 meters 35-40 meters 45-50 meters
Max Turbine
SizeSuitable for +5 MW turbines 3.6 MW turbines Suitable for +5 MW turbines Suitable for +5 MW turbines
Weight at Max
Water Depth (t)
1,400 300 700 700
Bigger turbines and deeper project depths drive uptake of larger
foundation technology in the long term
Expected to makeup the majority of
installations through 2020
Current industry focus
technology
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Project Depths >50m Drive Floating Foundation Research
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Key Areas of Concern for Floating TechnologySource: MAKE Consulting
Massive forces from turbine pitching, rapid acceleration/deceleration
Compensated for by pitch controls may undermine power production
Drive train bearing failure concerns
Heave, Pitch
& Roll
Servicing a pitching and bobbing platform from jack up barge
Towable platforms may be advantaged in this respect
Increases the criticality for onshore service facilities
Major
Component
Service
Understanding the weather windows required for towing fully assembled units
Blades and drive shaft are fixed, and unable to pitch to compensate loads
Distance from onshore facility a critical factor
Logistical
Concerns
Floating Foundations Have Promise, Significant Challenges
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Floating Foundations Could Unlock Additional Growth
20
Regional Offshore Wind Market NeedsSource: MAKE Consulting
Chinese offshore wind concession
projects jumpstart growth
shallow/intertidal installations in
near term
Japan and
South Korea
both in need
of deepwater
solutions toscale offshore
wind industry
effectively
Maine leading U.S.
efforts to develop
floating offshore wind
solutions
Deepwater pilot
programs in process in
Portugal, Spain, France
and Italy
UK and German offshore wind
suffices with existing foundation
technology for foreseeable future
Traditional foundation technologies
Focus regions for deepwater solutions
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Focus Markets For Floating Tech Attractiveness Varies
21
Country RE Support Deep Sea Wind Activity
Spain
Target Wind
Generation
FIT or market premium
pricing options
Premium reduced 35% in
2010 (20.13/MWh )
Target Offshore
Wind
2010 = 40,9782015 = 57,086
2020 = 78,524
2010 = 0%2015 = 1%
2020 = 10%
Azimut project for 15MW offshore wind plant ...
Foundation technology TBD
France
FIT of 82/MWh for
onshore applications
Offshore FIT =
130/MWh
2010 = 11,638
2015 = 30,634
2020 = 57,900
2010 = 0%
2015 = 27%
2020 = 31%
Vertiwind project with EDFN, Technip and Converteam
to develop large scale vertical axis floating wind turbine
system
WinFlo semi-submersible project
Italy
Green Certificates
(1 GC = 1MWh) Offshore = 1.1x
multiplier
2010 = 8,398
2015 = 13,6522020 = 20,000
2010 = 0%
2015 = 4%2020 = 12%
Blue H floating foundation prototype launched in 2007
Proposal out for 90MW farm using Blue H technology offcoast of Southern Italy
Portugal 2005 1.8GW tender
buildout through 2014
Wind FIT (73/MWh)
2010 = 10,214
2015 = 13,400
2020 = 14,596
2010 = 0%
2015 = 1%
2020 = 2%
Vestas and EDPR will launch prototype of Principle Power
semi-submersible floating wind turbine concept in 2011
U.S.
Maine State RPS of 10% RE
generation by 2017
2015 = 2GW
2020 = 3GW
2030 = 8GW
2015 = 0%
2020 = 10%
2030 = 63%
RFP out for 25MW offshore wind utilizing floating
foundations for deployment in 2016 timeframe
South
Korea
RPS Target = 5% in 2011,
11% in 2030
2X REC for offshore wind
power
2012 = 1GW
2025 = 13.5GW
(per KWEA)
2012=0.1GW
2016= 0.9GW
2019=2.5GW
Government moving forward on public/private
partnership to Invest USD 7.8 Billion in 2.5GW offshore
wind power plant
Pushing for floating foundation IEC std.
Japan National RPS of 16 TWh
(~1.5%) by 20142010 = 3GW None defined
Wide variety of university sponsored programs
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Analysis of Floating Foundation Concepts
22
Indicates seaworthiness of the foundation technology through control of pitch and heave motions
Indicates the level of complexity associated
with the transport of turbine/ foundation
from port to site
Indicates likely cost benefits/detriments based on
foundation weight (steel usage)
Indicated complexity and robustness of
anchoring/mooring concept
Indicates ease of access to the turbine
systems onboard the foundation for
scheduled and unscheduled maintenance
3 2 1
Platform StabilityPitch and heave motions minimized with
validated passive mooring system
Pitch and heave motion compensation
requires use of advanced control systems
validated at lull scale or lab level
System stability unknown/untested
Turbine ServiceTurbines easily accessed by non-specialized
service vessels on-site
Turbines are accessible by helicopter or
specialized service vessels for service on-siteTurbines must be towed into port for service
System InstallationIn-port assembly of turbine and tow to site
with 1-2 non-specialized vessels
At sea turbine installation requiring non-
specialized vessel
At sea turbine installation requiring
specialized vessel
Anchoring SystemUtilizes simple catenary line mooring system
with simple sea anchor technology
Requires use of taut line mooring system with
more elaborate sea anchor
Requires use of specialized anchoring
system unique to wind industry
Foundation WeightSteel usage on par with jacket/tripod
foundation technology
Steel usage equivalent with jacket/tripod
foundation technology
Steel usage well in excess with jacket/tripod
foundation technology
Explanation of Analysis
Anchoring
System
Foundation
Weight
Platform Stability
Turbine
Service
System
Installation
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Principle PowerAdvanced Semi-Submersible Concept
23
Principle Power Floating FoundationSource: Principle Power (images)
Portugal prototype deployment under construction
Turbine agnostic philosophy enables use of variety of
turbine technologies, thus expanding total available
market opportunity
Active ballasting control system technology and water
entrapment plates utilized for enhanced stability
o Semi-submersible design inherently has lower level of
dynamic coupling between wind and wave induced motion
o Control system cost, complexity and maintenance concerns
Port assembly and commissioning of turbine provides
advantages with respect to installation costso Typical tug dayrates stand at 2,500 EUR/day versus self-
propelled installation vessels at upwards of 135,00 EUR/day
Scale of the foundation and associated assembly operation
will likely require specialized port facilities for foundation
production and deployment
Name Principle Power PartnershipsStatoilHydro/
Siemens
Base Technology Semi-Submersible Design Depth (m) >50m
Anchor System Catenary Lines Weight (tonne) 2,500
Technology Highlights
Advanced controls and massive substructure provide stability, but drive
system cost concerns
Anchoring
System
Foundation
Weight
Platform Stability
Turbine
Service
System
Installation
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HywindFirst Full Scale Floating Turbine System
24
Hywind Floating Foundation
Source: Hywind (images) Strong partnership with industry leaders
Holds the honor of the worlds first large scale floating
wind turbine deployment
Turbine agnostic philosophy enables use of variety of
turbine technologies
o Turbine control technology may need to be adapted to aid
motion compensation, enhance turbine reliability
Spar buoy concept employs simplistic design and
fabrication, but requires a tremendous amount of steel
o Ballast stability requires no specialized control equipment
o Deep draft limits usage to water depths in excess of 100m
Foundation upending operation requires multiple vessels,
and also requires specialized offshore turbine installation
vessel to complete turbine assembly at sea
Turbine service on-site may require need of specialized
personnel access systems (Amplemann system)
Name Hywind PartnershipsStatoilHydro/
Siemens
Base Technology Spar-Buoy Design Depth (m) >100m
Anchor System
Three ballasted
catenary mooring
lines
Weight (tonne)
HywindFirst Full Scale Floating Turbine System
Anchoring
System
Foundation
Weight
Platform Stability
Turbine
Service
System
Installation
Simplest design of the floating foundation types, but offers less
installation cost advantages
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Sway - Innovative Hybrid Approach
25
Sway Floating Foundation
Source: Hywind (images)
Sway working with AREVA to modify M5000 platform fordownwind operation
o Sway is also planning on deploying its own unique 10MW
direct drive wind turbine
System employs a floating tower substructure similar to
the Hywind spar buoy, but uses a single tension rod
coupled to a suction anchor for station keeping
o Single tendon with dual U-joints allows foundation &
turbine to yaw with changing wind directions
o Subsea yaw mechanism requires a more elaborate tower
design to enable access to yaw system for maintenance
o Tension rod setup is a potential single point of failure
concern
Tower stiffening mechanism to cope with turbine loads
with lower material costs
o Spreader bars and tension lines employed in a similar
manner as a typical sailboat mast
Name Sway Partnerships
Statoil/
Statkraft/
Inocean/ Lyse
Base TechnologyHybrid spar
buoy/TLPDesign Depth (m) >100m
Anchor System Single tension leg Weight (tonne) 1,050
Technology Highlights
Hybrid approach aids in reducing weight issues of typical spar buoy, but
requires complicated system yaw device
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Blue H - Pioneering Tension Leg Platform
26
Blue H Floating Foundation
Source: Blue H (images) First floating wind turbine to ever be deployed
o 80kW turbine utilized for initial test, with plans to move to
2.5MW system in Phase II
Original plans to deploy in-house two-bladed turbine
o Turbine efforts spun off into different subsidiary
Tension leg platform rebranded as Submerged Deepwater
Platform (SDP)
o Semi-submersible floating structure is tethered to a large
ballast structure that sits on the ocean floor
o Additional thrust of platform buoyancy keeps mooring lines
taut and minimizes pitch and roll
Dynamic loading of tension legs over time requires
expensive mooring lines and introduces fatigue failure
concerns
Port assembly and commissioning of turbine provides
advantages with respect to installation costs
Name Blue H PartnershipsProgeco,
Ansaldo
Base TechnologyTension Leg
PlatformDesign Depth (m) >100m
Anchor SystemSix taut tension
linesWeight (tonne) 650
Technology Highlights
Tension leg platform offers excellent stability with low foundation
weights, but expensive mooring systemAnchoring
System
Foundation
Weight
Platform Stability
Turbine
Service
System
Installation
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WindSea - Turbine Island Concept
27
WindSea Floating Foundation
Source: WindSea (images)
Ambitious, highly integrated system designo Complex semi-submersible structure with two upwind
turbines with one downwind turbine
o Upwind turbines situated on inclined towers, while
downwind turbine elevated to minimize wake effect
o No active ballast control, but may use heave plates
Turbine Island pivots into prevailing wind with aid
of aerodynamically tailored tower on rear turbine
and detachable center turret swivel
Turbine wake issues minimized but still present (7%loss of production from three standalone turbines)
Installation and service strategy calls for entire
platform to be towed into & out of port
o Single turbine failure could take all turbines out of service
o Size of structure likely requires multiple tugs
Technology Highlights
Name WindSea Partnerships FORCE/NLI
Base Technology Semi-submersible Design Depth (m) >45m
Anchor System Six Catenary Lines Weight (tonne) 4,600
Tight control integration of three turbines for Turbine Island concept
poses significant concerns for plant wide availabilityAnchoring
System
Foundation
Weight
Platform Stability
Turbine
Service
System
Installation
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28
Conclusions
Floating Foundation Technology Has Long Term Market Potential
o Steel jackets and tripod/tripile technology will capture a majority of mid to long termmarket demand
o Saturation of offshore of developable resources in waters
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Copyright 2011 MAKE Consulting A/S. All rights reserved.Reproduction or distribution of this report in any form without prior written permission
is strictly forbidden. Violation of the above restrictions will be subject to legal action
under the Danish Arbitration Act. The information herein is taken from sources
considered reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not warranted, nor are the
opinions, analyses and forecasts on which they are based. MAKE Consulting A/S cannot
be held liable for any errors in this report, neither can MAKE Consulting A/S be liable for
any financial loss or damage caused by the use of the information presented in this
report.
MAKE Consulting
Aarhus, Denmark (Head Office)
Chicago, USA
Boston, USA
Tianjin, P. R. China
www.make-consulting.com
Reports and notes recently compiledby MAKE Consulting:
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Supply Side 2011(market report, June 3, 2011)
Cash flow issues push Chinese OEMs to reducedependency on IPPs(flash note, May 30, 2011)
U.S. Project Pipeline 2011(research presentation, May 19, 2011)
U.S. Wind Power 2011(business study, May 19, 2011
Inner Mongolia takes first step to consolidate windcapacity in China
(flash note, May 17, 2011)
Assessment of the international expansion activitiesof Chinese wind turbine OEMs(research note, May 17, 2011)
GE/Converteam deal could be catalyst for new M&A(flash note, April 7, 2011)