2011 Stock Market Outlook_show

8/8/2019 2011 Stock Market Outlook_show

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2011 STOCK MARKETOUTLOOK

ACCORD CAPITAL EQUITIES CORPORATION


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QUICK REVIEW 2010: PSEI

The PSEI returned37.62% for the full year,roughly 60% of 2009srecord 63% gains.

This is the fourth best yearover the last decade

2009 = 63.0%

2006 = 42.3%

2003 = 41.6%

Market returns over 40%every three (3) years

Ranked 3rd in ASEAN 6

Click to edit Master text stylesSecond level Third level

Fourth level Fifth level


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QUICK REVIEW 2010:VOLUME/VALUE

Total volumeturnover reached423.9 B; net of block sales,399.6 B

Total value

turnover reachedphp1.187 T; netof block sales,php971.3B

December tradessaw an above

average flow toFinancials,Holding Firms,Services, Mining& Oil andProperty

Overall,Industrials got

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QUICK REVIEW 2010: FOREIGNVALUENet Foreign fund wasnegative in 4 of the 12months (July-August andNovember-December)

Sales in the last twomonths of the year hardlydented the long-term

picture, accounting for only6.8% of the aggregate netpurchases through October

Daily average netpurchases for the yearamounted to php220.3M

0123456

789

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THE BROAD ECONOMY: GDP(quarterly, yoy)

GDP in January toSeptember at 7.5%returning to pre-crisis/globalrecession levels

Worst-case scenarioof q4 at 1.5% pace,full year GDPaverage remainswithin 5.0%-6.0%target range (dotted

line) an unlikely event

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(source: WWW.CENSUS.GOV.PH)


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THE BROAD ECONOMY: GDP vs. ASEAN 6

RP ranked 3rd behindSingapore and Thailand in terms of real GDP after Q3,2010.

In 2009, Singapore,Malaysia and Thailandregistered negativeGDP growth

RPs 7.4% (through

Q3) betters the 2007pace of 7.1%

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THE BROAD ECONOMY: Inflation

Annual inflation overthe last 10 years havebeen erratic;

Slowest pace in 2007(2.8%), fastest in crisis

year 2008 (9.3%)

2010 sees a slightuptick from 2009 levels,but have remainedwithin targets set by oureconomic managers


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THE BROAD ECONOMY: Interest Rates

Philippine Lending Rates(all maturities) hasconsistently dropped overthe last 10 years;

Remains high comparedto ASEAN 6 peers, behindIndonesias 13.3%

Thailand and Malaysiahave significantly lowerrates for comparableinstruments at a littleover 5.0%

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PSEI Outlook: Technical Condition

Market @ 2ndextendedconsolidation band,4,050-4,200, withpositive bias

1st major pullback line@ 4,125

1st major breakoutpoint @ 4,220

1st consolidation bandcoincided with electionperiod with the Greece

debt-crisis coming intoplay in the later partof the range, lendingnegative volatility

Click to edit Master text stylesSecond level

Third level Fourth level

Fifth level


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PSEI Outlook: Daily RSI (14)

RSI on rising trendindicating increasedpositive momentum

Coincident RSI topswith PSEI peaks(>4,000) accompaniedby higher RSI levels,[marked as pts. 1, 2,and 3] positing aprobable positivebreak of 4,000-mark

Less encouraging aresuggestions from the

weekly and monthlycharts, with topsunsupported



Fifth level


12/25

PSEI Outlook: Daily MACD (12,6,9)

MACD broke the signal lineas the PSEI broke its ownnear-term downtrend line,settling at 4,166.04

Histogram shows anincreasing positive gapbetween the MACD and thesignal line, likewise, the line

has crossed over to positiveterritory

Despite the breakout fromthe downtrend, the indexremains within a month-long consolidation range




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PSEI Outlook: STO (10,3,3)

Market at overboughtterritory, 6 days afterrising from oversoldarea and registering abullish crossover of the trigger line;

STO has reached>95, which on twoprior instances,preceded a sell-off ranging from -4.3% to-18.3% over the next

1 to 3 weeks.



Fifth level


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PSEI Outlook: Daily MFI (14)

the Index fell in line withthe MFI suggestions,following a 2-weekdivergence,

Index break of downtrendfrom November 4thsupported by similarbreak of a longer-termdowntrend in the MFI

Breakout line insufficientto provide reliableguidance on the strengthand sustainability of thecurrent direction



Fifth level


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STOCK PICKS: PE Bargains

Six (6) countersacross the HoldingFirm, Property, andIndustrial Sectorspose bargainopporutunities

based on their 5-yrEPS growth;

Price Targetcomputed as

projected 2011 EPSx end-2010 PE

PEG of


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STOCK PICK: MPI

Price rose above10-, 50- and 150pdEMAs

10pdEMA is poisedto break above the50pdEMA,

suggesting a furtherupside momentum

Only the STOsuggests a possiblepullback as it hoversin overboughtterritory and draws apossible break belowits trigger line




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STOCK PICK: AGI

Price has met strongresistance atphp13.00 level;

MACD (2nd chartfrom top) on freshbreak of the signalline, moving intopositive territory,suggesting a build-upof strength

STO requires a near-term pullback, whichshould open a BUYwindow @ php11.20

Volume movementsstable with slightpick-up bias



Fifth level


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STOCK PICK: RLC

Price remains under a2-month downtrendbut is poised tobreakout off thephp16.40 resistance

10pdEMA suggestingan oncoming breakabove the 50pdEMA,with price consistentlyholding php15.40support

MACD draws samepossibility as the EMA

STO keeps break overtrigger line, still freshfrom oversold area



Fifth level


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STOCK PICK: DMC

Positive but gradualprice action, breakinga slight downwardbias, even as it keepsabove all EMAs

MACD still positive,build-up still slow butpositive

STO in overboughtterritory, positing abreak below triggerline, suggesting anear-term slide

AccDist Line stronglyshows accumulativebias



Fifth level


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STOCK PICK: MEG

Support building up atthe php2.38-2.44 range,with Major Support stillat php2.32

Critical price level toreverse positive moodat php2.10

STO overbought,possible near-term slidethat should hold support

MACD gradually pickingup momentum

Distributive pressurelast week of 2010 notmaking a dent on theaccumulative bias



Fifth level


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STOCK PICK: FPH

Price has movedfrom negative trendto consolidativebias betweenphp59.50 php63.00

MACD, STO on evenkeel, supporting thesideways price bias

Distributivepressure stillslightly dominant

Entry window opensas price slidestowards support line



Fifth level


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2010 Positives

Consumer & Business sentiments high

No political risks

Low interest ratesContained Inflation

Increased investments flow

Sustained and stronger global recoveries

Sustained improvement in economicfundamentals


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2010 Risks

European crisis shifting to Spain,Portugal

China monetary tightening to containinflation

Governments revenue efforts

Unforeseen events


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