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Summary of study results
Stuttgart, September 2011
The Rare Earth challenge: How companies reactand what they expect for the future
1The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
• Rare Earth (RE) are a group of 17 metals which are required for many high tech applications – And they are not really "rare"
• Due to skyrocketing prices, RE have developed from a rather small and widely neglected market of ~2.4 bn in 2010 to a multi-billion business of top strategic importance (market volume of ~27 bn estimated for 2011)
Management summary
2The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
• This threatens the profitability and even the existence of many high tech companies. Affected companies are taking action:
– In all surveyed companies, RE are now a management/board level issue
– Companies prepare/apply several different strategies to tackle the RE challenge, especially "secure supplies" and "reduce usage"; applied levers vary
• We have applied our proven scenario technique to forecast the RE price development
– Prices for LIGHT RE are expected to decrease in the short to medium term depending on the behavior of China and the extent/timing of substitution
– Prices for HEAVY RE are expected to increase in the short term and stay constant/gradually decrease in the long term
This study is based on extensive research by Roland Berger as well as the feedback from ~30 interviewees
• Identification and analysis of ~150 documents related to RE
Roland Bergerresearch
Expert interviews with affectd companies
• Completion of ~20 interviews with experts from affected companies (mostly with the
• Completion of ~10 interviews with contacts from different areas
Otherexpert interviews
Sources of the study
3The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
to RE– Studies– Press releases– Speeches/presentations– Governmental programs– Company publications
– Analyst reports
• Development of databases, e.g. on mines/mining projects outside of China including details on their reserves
companies (mostly with the head of purchasing)
from different areas– Associations, e.g. VDA
(German Association of the Automotive Industry))
– Government institutions, e.g. Deutsche Rohstoff-agentur in der Bundes-anstalt für Geowissen-schaften und Rohstoffe
– Universities, e.g. Institute for Electrical Engineering
– Other, e.g. Asian Metal
28%
18%
54%
Other high techindustries e.g. lighting
Wind power
Automotive (OEMs &suppliers)
Source: Roland Berger
Study contents
THE CHALLENGE: Rare Earth prices are skyrocketing, many high tech companies are affectedA.THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at B.
4The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at affected companies, three strategies can be differentiatedB.THE OUTLOOK: Factors in four dimensions will influence the future price developmentC.OUR COMPANY: We are supporting several clients in finding adequate responses to their Rare Earth challengeD.
Rare Earth Description
• Umbrella term for 17 elements, e.g. Neodymium or Dysprosium
• RE are not really "rare", but evenly spread over the Earth's crust. Rare are only economically exploitable reserves
Rare Earth are a group of 17 metals which are requi red for many high tech applications – And they are not really "ra re"
5The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
economically exploitable reserves
• RE can only be extracted jointly, the volume of single RE thus depends on the composition of the natural mineral deposit
• RE are used in numerous high tech applications, e.g.
– Permanent magnets used in e-motors or generators of wind turbines
– Phosphors used in LEDs, lighting or flat screens
– Automotive catalysts or batteries
Source: Roland Berger Research
A total of ~137 k tons of Rare Earths will be deman ded by various high tech industries in 2011e
Share of Rare Earth applications in 2011e
Magnets
Glass/Polishings/CeramicsE.g. glass additives, polishing powder
Polishingpowder (19.0)
Glass additives (8.2)
Magnets (26.8)
La Ce Pr Nd Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Other
6.0 12.4 0.7
2.0 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.3
5.9 18.8 0.5 0.1 1.5
2.3 1.6 0.8 1.6
OXIDE USAGE ['000 tons]
Ceramics (13.6)
TOTAL DEMAND [137 k tons]Y
0.2
7.2
BACKUP
6The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
5%7%
18%
20% 20%
30%
MagnetsE.g. electric vehic-les, consumer elec-tronics, renewable power generation
Metal alloy/batteriesE.g. hybrid/ electric vehicles, energy storage
Phosphor/luminescenceE.g. LEDs, lighting, flat screens
Others
CatalystsE.g. automotive catalysts, fluid cracking
Magnets (26.8)
Auto catalysts (9.5)
FCC1) (19.0)
5.9 18.8 0.5 0.1 1.5
0.5 8.6 0.2 0.3
7.5 5.0 0.5 1.5 0.5
2.5 5.0 0.5 1.6
0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.4
1.3 2.7 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.1
39.9 43.5 9.0 25.0 0.6 0.80.5 0.5 1.5 0.3
17.1 1.9
Batteryalloy (14.9)
Metallurgyex. batt. (9.6)
Phos-phors (9.5)
Others (6.8)
Total (137.0)
Source: Kingsnorth (IMCOA); CIBC; REITA; Öko-Institut; Roland Berger
1) Fluid catalytic cracking - conversion process used in petroleum refineries
6.6
1.3
15.3
Kutessay II
Kyanefjeld
Benjamin River
HoidasLakeThor Lake (Nechalecho)
Bokan Mountain
Bear Lodge
Pea Ridge
Deep SandsMountain Pass
DouglasRiver
KarratSarfartoq
Kringlerne
StrangeLake
Misery Lake
Elk Creek
Wicheeria
LemhiPass/
Clay HowellsArchie Lake
EdenLake
Vale de CavalosKizilcaden
Aksu Diapras
StofkwitzNorra Kärr
Verschiedene in Skandinavien
Kola Peninsula Tomtor (Burannyi)
SeligdarskoveStepogorsk Khalzan Burged
Mushgai Khudag
Khotgor Bayan OboUlba
Sichuan
There are numerous mines / deposits worldwide – Few, however, can be expected to start production before 2015
Selected RE mines / deposits (2011)
BACKUP
7The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
Planned (projects)
Deposits
In use
Mines / deposits
Ionic clay regionsVarious in Vietnam
Browns RangeNolans Bore
DubboMount Weld
Wigu Hill
ZandkopsdriftSteenkampskraal
Pea RidgeMountain Pass
Chavara/Manivalakurichi
Iron Hill
Pass/DiamondCreek
Archie LakeElliot Lake/Eco Ridge
Pitinga
Salitre
Buena Norte
Catalao
AraxáTapira
Morro DosSeis LagosRodeo
Los Molles
Lofdal
QMM
TantalusNkombwa Hill
Kangan-kunde
Mrima HillNigualia
GhurayyanAksu Diapras
Amba Dongar
AluvaPerak
Cummins Range
Yangibana Olympic DamWIM150
e.g. Dong PaoOrissa
Production before 2015 (announcement)
Sichuan
China
19
Russia USA India
3,155 13 22
Australia
1,6
Other
Estimated global reserves[m tons]
Globally, ~270 projects are known in 28 countries; <10% are expected to make it
Source: Deutsche Rohstoffagentur
Financial and
economic crisis
Financial and
economic crisis
Following a period of dumping prices, RE prices are skyrocketing –Example: Neodymium & Dysprosium used for permanent magnets
Price development Neodymium & Dysprosium metal – 01/05 to 08/11
400
450
500
[USD/kg]ExportFOB China
[USD/kg]
3,500
3,000
ExportFOBChina
8The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptxSource: Asian Metal
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20122011201020092008200720062005
+5,799% Chinalocal
Neodymium metalDysprosium metal
500
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
0
20122011201020092008200720062005
+5,916%
Chinalocal
China
The skyrocketing RE prices threaten the existence o f some companies – Example automotive supply chain
Example automotive supply chain: RE1) share of total value add [%]
89.0%
Comment
• RE account for a significant share of the value add of compa-
Tier 3: Magnet supplier
Tier 2: E-motor supplier
Tier 1: Steering system supplier
AutomotiveOEM
9The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptxSource: DIW; Roland Berger
RE magnet E-motor Steering system Hybrid car
1.4%0.1%5.2%
0.5%
41.0%
6.0%
89.0%
45.0%
value add of compa-nies at early stages of high tech value chains
• Recent price increases have exploded this share – threatening the existence of these companies if they cannot pass on the price increases
• Strong dependencies in value chains also affect OEMs
Average July 2011Average 2010
1) Neodymium and Dysprosium (used for permanent magnets)
For other companies, the skyrocketing RE prices sev erely cut their profits – Example lighting industry
Example lighting industry: Cost impact of RE price increases
0.50.512.50.2 0.3
16.3
360
Resulting cost for RE [EUR m]
Share oflighting revenue 2010 [%]
0.8% 4.8%
Top-down RE demand estimation (REO) ['000 tons]
10The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
15.3
Lighting
3.7
3.3
0.2 0.2
Non-lighting1)
12.0
0.2 0.2
0.11.0 0.1
Lighting manu-facturer
Other lighting manufacturers
1.9
Demand 2010
2.5
0.8
YttriumEuropiumTerbium
5
150
120
2011 (based on Q2 prices)
360
90
2010
55
2525
2010 [%]
Source: Roland Berger Research
1) Non-lighting includes usage for LCD-TVs 2) Assumption based on market share
What was once a rather small and widely neglected m arket, has turned into a multi-billion business of top strateg ic importance
RE market volume estimate / extrapolation
Comments
• Due to skyrocketing RE prices, the annual market volume of RE metal has grown more than 10x to
Global annual market volume RE [EUR bn]
Global RE demand ['000 t]
+10%125 ~137
11The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
metal has grown more than 10x to EUR ~27 bn in 2011 (extra-polation)
Main assumptions
• Demand 2008 and forecast 2011 per RE element
• Average prices 2008 for RE metal based on Asian Metal
• Average prices June/July 2011 based on Asian Metal assumed for full year 2011
+1,029%
2011e
~27.1
2008
2.4
Source: Asian Metal; Kingsnorth; Roland Berger
China has understood the strategic importance of RE already long ago – Today, they almost completely dominate the sup ply
Selected quotes
"The Middle East has its oil, China has its Rare Earths."
Deng Xiaoping 1) (1992)
Supply chain for RE magnets
Current market share China
RE extractionand cracking
(RE concentrate)>95%
12The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
1) De facto leader of the PR China 1979-1997 2) President of the PR China 1993-2003 3) Premier of the State Council of the PR China 2003-today; PhD-awarded geologist
"In the beginning of the 80's we sold Rare Earths at the price of salt. But they deserve the price of gold. We are just starting to protect our natural interests."
"The idea is to develop the resource advantage into economic superiority."
Deng Xiaoping 1) (1992)
Wen Jiabao 3) (7/2010)
Jiang Zemin 2) (1999) during a visit of a mining area in Inner Mongolia Smelting
(magnet alloy powder)
>95%
~80%
~80%Magnet production(e.g. NdFeB)
Separation and beneficiating(e.g. Nd, Dy)
Source: Roland Berger Research
Study contents
THE CHALLENGE: Rare Earth prices are skyrocketing, many high tech companies are affectedA.THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at B.
13The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at affected companies, four strategies can be differentiatedB.THE OUTLOOK: Factors in four dimensions will influence the future price developmentC.OUR COMPANY: We are supporting several clients in finding adequate responses to their Rare Earth challengeD.
Affected companies are reacting – In all surveyed co mpanies, RE are now a management/board level issue
• Last year, RE were dealt with on working level in most companies, e.g. typically by purchasing
CommentsOn which hierarchical level is the RE challenge tac kled?
Top management/CEO
100%100%
11%
14The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
• Most companies only had limited transparency on the use of RE in their products
• Now, RE are a top management issues in most affected companies
• Several companies have installed cross-functional, company-wide task forces to tackle the RE challenge
Working level
Middle management
August 2011
22%
78%
August 2010
56%
33%
Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger
Companies typically apply more than one strategy to tackle the RE challenge – Depending also on their perception of th e challenge
Strategies to tackle the RE challenge Application [% of surveyed companies]1)
I "Securesupplies"
II "Reduce
• Secure RE supplies/RE products at competitive prices
• Typical levers: Renegotiation, supplier development, investment, hedging
• Substitute RE through different techni-
22%11% 78%45%
15The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
1) More than one strategy possible per company
II "Reduceusage"
III "Relocateproductionto China"
IV "Weather the storm"
• Substitute RE through different techni-cal solutions or reduce usage of RE
• Levers: Substitution, material efficiency
• Relocate production to China• Lever: Benefit from Chinese local RE
prices (typically lower / without export taxes) and more reliable supply
• No measures initiated – Assumption that RE situation will be back to normal in the short-/mid-term
Very criticalCriticalNot critical
45% 67%11% 11%
0%
22%
Company perception of RE challenge:
Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger
There are many concrete examples for these strategi es – Some of them have received significant attention in the pre ss
Strategy
I "Secure supplies"
Company
Siemens
Measures
• Announcement of a JV with Lynas Corp. (Siemens 55%, Lynas 45%) to establish an end-to-end supply chain from "mine to magnet (to application)"
• Extraction of RE at Mount Weld, Australia (official
Application
Generators for wind power plants, high-tech products
Selected company examples
16The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
II "Reduce usage"
III "Relocate production to China"
Automotive supplier
• Extraction of RE at Mount Weld, Australia (official opening 08/2011) and separation/processing in Malaysia
• Systematic evaluation of RE substitution possibilities for all products− Identification and technical evaluation of substitutes− Commercial evaluation (business cases)− Decision based on evaluations & customer feedback
• Program to increase material efficiency across products, e.g. reduce use of Dysprosium (heavy RE)
tech products for automotive applications
E-motors used for automotive applications
Hitachi Metals
• Announcement to start manufacturing of Neodymium-based magnets in China from 2013 onwards1)
Permanent magents
1) In addition, Hitachi will form a JV with Molycorp for the production of RE alloys and magnets in the U.S.
Source: Roland Berger Research
To implement the strategies, companies apply a vari ety of levers –Substitution and higher material efficiency are app lied most
Companies' strategies correlated with perceived criticality [%]
Strategy Timing Lever/application [% of surveyed companies]
I "Secure supplies" 56%
56%
Renegotiation (existing suppliers)
New suppliers (identification/development)
Short-term
Mid-/long-term
17The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx17
II "Reduce usage"
III "Relocate prod. to China"
Further levers
33%
44%1)
67%
0%
67%
0%
JV/direct investment (mining projects)
Physical/financial hedging
Substitution
Material efficiency
Adjustment of product portfolio
Relocate production to China
Passing on prices to customers
Recycling of products
Long-term
Short-/mid-term
Mid-/long-term
Mid-/long-term
Mid-/long-term
Short-term
Long-term 22%
44%
Mid-/long-term
Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger
1) Including companies that are not yet applying this lever but consider it
Study contents
THE CHALLENGE: Rare Earth prices are skyrocketing, many high tech companies are affectedA.THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at B.
18The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at affected companies, four strategies can be differentiatedB.THE OUTLOOK: Factors in four dimensions will influence the future price developmentC.OUR COMPANY: We are supporting several clients in finding adequate responses to their Rare Earth challengeD.
To get an understanding of the likely future develo pment of RE prices, we have applied our proven scenario techniq ue
Identification of factors influencing RE prices
Clustering of "critical uncertainties"
Derivation of pricing scenarios
Critical uncertainties
Trends
Hig
h
A
Criticaluncertainties
Trends
Hig
h
B
Cluster/axis A
I II III
Roland Berger scenario planning – Approach
19The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
Secondary factors
Impa
ct
Probability
Low
Low High
• Identification of factors influencing RE prices
• Evaluation of factors (impact / probability based on expert interviews as well as research)
• Clustering of the critical uncer-tainties to differentiate scenarios
• Trends as the basis for scenarios• Elimination of secondary factors
A
Impa
ct
Probability
Low
Low High
B
Secondary factors
• Selection of the two most important clusters among the "critical uncertainties"
• Derivation of pricing scenarios based on these clusters (matrix)
Cluster/ axis B
S1 S2
S3 S4
Source: Roland Berger
Factors in four dimensions influence the future pri ce development of RE – China as currently monopolistic player most important
SUPPLY DEMAND• Sufficient worldwide reserves
2 3
1. STRATEGY CHINA
• Use of RE in almost all high
• Early awareness of the relevance of RE • RE policy with clear strategic goals :
– Put pressure on high-tech companies to move their production to China
– Competitive advantage for Chin. companies• Systematic implementation of the strategy
(develop a monopoly throughout the entire value chain; currently: exploit monopoly)
I FACTORS INFLUENCING RE PRICES
20The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
Reaction of other countries and big industry players
• Sufficient worldwide reserves• 1965-1990 dominated by Mine
Mountain Pass (USA), meanwhile China monopoly (>95% in 2010)
• Opening of a new mine requires 5-10 years ; in addition, separation and processing capacities are required (radioactivity!)
• Roland Berger prediction : Even in case of a significant demand growth for light RE, no/little undersupply for light RE ; However, depending on extent/timing of substitution undersupply for heavy RE
4
• Use of RE in almost all high tech fields such as e-mobility, green tech. Examples: – Permanent magnets for
e-motors/generators– Fluid cracking catalysts– Phosphors for LED etc.– Batteries
• Future demand primarily influen-ced by growth in these fields as well as extent/timing of substi-tution/increase of material efficiency
value chain; currently: exploit monopoly)
• Late awareness of the relevance of RE• Other countries: Forceful reaction of USA
and especially Japan (JOBMEC) , Europe cautious
• Big industry players : Several strategies (mostly "secure supply " & "reduce usage ")
Factors influencing RE prices
Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger
>20 factors relevant for the price development of R E were identified and assessed – Differentiation of light a nd heavy RE
1. Opening of new mines with primarily light RE (volume growth 10-20% p.a. until 2016)
2. Opening of new mines with significant share of heavy RE not until 2015 (volume growth <10% p.a.)
3. Preparation / processing capacities are
Supply Demand
5. Worldwide growth of relevant demand industries (8-15% p.a. growth)
6. Light RE: Significant substitution
7. Heavy RE: Significant substitution and increase in 1
27
1617
20 21
6
Price-influencing factors and their assessment
Hig
h Critical uncertainties Trends
I FACTORS INFLUENCING RE PRICES
21The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
3. Preparation / processing capacities are not a significant bottleneck
4. Significant disruptions of the RE-value chain e.g. by political conflicts (4.1), natural catastrophes (4.2), strikes in mines (4.3), etc.
10. Exertion of political pressure on China (WTO etc.)
11. Increase of process costs due to compliance/increase of environ-mental specifications (laws)
12. Discovery of new reserves13. Significant advancements in
extraction/processing technology14. Intensification of legal regulations
(e.g. Dodd-Frank-Act)15. Significant increase of exploration
cost share of RE-cost
substitution and increase in material efficiency
8. Increase in industry cooperations, JVs, etc.
9. Implementation of product recycling
Reaction of the RoW
16. Keeping/further reduction of export quota
17. Relaxation of export quota18. Keeping/further increase of ex-
port tariffs (today 25% on RE)19. Reduction of export tariffs20. Further consolidation of the RE
industry and direct government influence (e.g. Baotou Steel)
21. Closure of all illegal mines (especially south China)
China's strategy
Impa
ct
Probability
Secondary factors
5
4.1
1
11
4.2
4.312
13
18
10
8
14
15
6
19
3
9
Low
HighLow
Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger
Factors with relevant impact on RE prices were clus tered– Critical uncertainties form the basis for the pric e scenarios
16. Keeping/further reduction of export quota17. Relaxation of export quota18. Keeping/further increase of ex-port tariffs (today 25% on RE)19. Reduction of export tariffs
More liberal Chinese RE policy
12
6
20 21More liberal
RE policy Signif. substi -
Critical uncertainties Trends
71617
II CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES
Categorization of influential factors
Hig
h
22The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
1. Opening of new mines with primarily light RE (volume growth 10-20% p.a. until 2016)
2. Opening of new mines with significant share of heavy RE not until 2015 (volume growth <10% p.a.)
3. Preparation / processing capacities are not a significant bottleneck5. Worldwide growth of relevant recipient industries (8-15% p.a.
growth)20. Further consolidation of the RE industry and direct government
influence21. Closure of all illegal mines (especially south China)
Trends
No further consideration of secondary factors
5
136RE policy
Chinasubsti -tution
Significant substitution
6. Light RE: Significant substitution7. Heavy RE: Significant substitution & increase in material efficiency
1819
Impa
ct
Probability
Low
HighLow
Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger
On this basis four schematic price scenarios can be differentiated- Light RE less critical, heavy RE more critical
III PRICE SCENARIOS
App
lies Light RE: Mid-term relaxation
Heavy RE: Mid-term relaxationLight RE: Short-term relaxationHeavy RE: Mid-term relaxation
Schematic price scenarios light/heavy RE (metal export FOB China)
23The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
Color gradient: Increasing uncertainty
Source: Expert interviews, Roland Berger
Doe
s no
t app
lyS
igni
fican
t sub
stitu
tion
Does not apply AppliesMore liberal Chinese RE policy (export quota, tarif fs)
Light RE: Mid-term relaxationHeavy RE: No relaxation
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Light RE: Short-term relaxationHeavy RE: No relaxation
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Study contents
THE CHALLENGE: Rare Earth prices are skyrocketing, many high tech companies are affectedA.THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at B.
24The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at affected companies, four strategies can be differentiatedB.THE OUTLOOK: Factors in four dimensions will influence the future price developmentC.OUR COMPANY: We are supporting several clients in finding adequate responses to their Rare Earth challengeD.
We have successfully supported various companies in finding adequate responses for their RE challenge/comparabl e issues
Selected references 2010/2011
Company
Automotive supplier
Project objectives Main recommendations/ results
• Company-wide, cross-functional project to comprehensively tackle the Rare Earth challenge
• Scope included a long-term strategy as well as securing supply, passing on additional cost to clients and identifying technological substitutes
• Long-term strategy defined based on price scenarios• Transparency created on RE volumes/ profit risk• Customer strategies developed and implem. initiated• Supplier strategy defined and implementation initiated• Substitutes identified and roughly evaluated
25The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptxSource: Roland Berger
Specialty chemicals manufacturer
Automotive manufacturer
Wind turbine manufacturer
Photovoltaiccompany
• Setup of an agent based model for the worldwide supply and demand of specialty chemicals
• Analysis of different scenarios by varying pricing, raw material price, new capacity ramp-up time, etc.
• Price drivers identified and impact quantified• Increase of prices downstream• Ramp-up of new production plant
• Securing supplies for critical materials in the electronics supply chain (e.g. magnetic metals , polymers, electrolytes )
• Scenario planning for future forecasts• Introduction of risk mitigation in development phase
• Material risk management including tools and systems established
• Extension of supply chain monitoring from tier-1 to tier-n anchored
• Modular, repeatable levers to secure supply defined
• Identification of risks associated with Rare Earth usage in power generation assets
• Validation of alternative solutions to ensure material supply in critical value streams (plan B)
• In depth analysis of the possibilities and impact of material replacements
• Business cases
• Setup of a model for the worldwide supply and demand development of highly purified Silicon
• Analysis of different scenarios by varying pricing, raw material price, new capacity ramp-up time, etc.
• Price drivers identified and impact quantified• Hedging strategies developed• Recommendations on alternative technologies developed
Depending on the client' s business situation, a ta ilored approch is necessary
IMP
AC
T
High PRIORITY II PRIORITY I
4
26
Necessity of tailored solutions – Client example
Key QUESTIONS Program design – Client example
• How much am I affected? What substances, which part of the BOM, which volumes, which financial effects?
• What will happen? What are possible scenarios? How much will it affect my future results, my financing, my
26The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
Transparency1
Allocation/ Supplier management2
Hedging3
Downstream pricing4
Regulatory intervention5
Volume and production relocation6
Joint ventures/ partnerships7
Redesign/ substitution8
IMPLEMENTATION TIMESlow Fast
IMP
AC
T
Low PRIORITY III
3
5 1
26
78
Source: Roland Berger
much will it affect my future results, my financing, my stock price?
• What is already ongoing in my organization? Do I have the right processes and people in place? Do I come to decisions fast enough?
• Do I already address all possible levers? What do competitors, industry associations, governments do?
• What has been effective and efficient levers in similar, former situations? How is the situation different? What can I learn?
• How successful can the measures be? How long will they take? What effort will they need? What are trade-offs?
• What is suitable to my business model? To my culture? To my customers? To my stakeholder?
We propose a two-step approach to systematically ad dress the supply chain risks arising from skyrocketing RE pri ces
1
• Analyze current situation– Demand for each
RE element– Importance for
• Create project modules for identified levers
• Set up project controlling to constantly monitor ov erall status
• Implement selected measures– Short-term e.g. hedging
Lever implementation and monitoring
2
Transparency
27The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptxSource: Roland Berger
– Importance for business model
– Impact of increased prices on P&L
– Supply structure, i.e. suppliers and contracts
• Identify critical REs
• Identify and prioritize suitable levers/ measures
– Short-term e.g. hedging– Long-term e.g. joint ventures, direct investment
3-4 weeks
…
MODULE 2
MODULE 3
MODULE 1
Several months
We are the ideal partner for clients to drive such a project
We combine broad industry expertise in high tech fields with in-depth functional know-how in Operations Strategy to understand your bill of material's technical and business needs
Why Roland Berger?
From our procurement project experience we deduct the necessary frameworks and tools. Our global research centers have access to the data relevant to current and future exploration sites
28The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
global research centers have access to the data relevant to current and future exploration sites and the expected costs
We develop leading edge functional methodologies such as scenario planning together with our academic network and clients. This allows us to develop recommendations under the high uncertainties given in the Rare Earth demand, supply and price development
With our strong market position in China , we have access to decision makers in China to get more realistic and upfront information on future market and regulatory developments
With our global, cross-industry network of experts , we have detailed knowledge about the demand for the relevant raw materials
Source: Roland Berger
Your contacts
Thomas
Rinn
PARTNER
Löffelstraße 4670597 Stuttgart
Tel.: +49 (711) 3275 7349
Dr. Thomas
Schlick
PARTNER
Bockenheimer Landstraße 2-860306 Frankfurt
Tel.: +49 (69) 29924 6202
Dr. Sebastian
Durst
PROJECT MANAGER
Löffelstraße 4670597 Stuttgart
Tel.: +49 (711) 3275 7216
29The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
Dirk
Kohlen
PRINCIPAL
Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 680807 München
Tel.: +49 (89) 9230 8478Mobile: +49 (160) 744 2142
Dr. Guido
Hertel
PARTNER
Mies-van-der-Rohe-Strasse 680807 München
Tel.: +49 (89) 9230 8580Mobile: +49 (160) 744 8580
Tel.: +49 (711) 3275 7349Mobile: +49 (160) 744 7349
Dr. Michael
Alexander
Mies-van-der-Rohe-Strasse 680807 München
Tel.: +49 (40) 37631 4233Mobile: +49 (171) 558 6308
Tel.: +49 (69) 29924 6202Mobile: +49 (160) 744 6202
Tel.: +49 (711) 3275 7216Mobile: +49 (160) 744 7216
SENIOR ADVISOR