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2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

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Summary of study results Stuttgart, September 2011 The Rare Earth challenge: How companies react and what they expect for the future 1 The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx
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Page 1: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Summary of study results

Stuttgart, September 2011

The Rare Earth challenge: How companies reactand what they expect for the future

1The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

Page 2: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

• Rare Earth (RE) are a group of 17 metals which are required for many high tech applications – And they are not really "rare"

• Due to skyrocketing prices, RE have developed from a rather small and widely neglected market of ~2.4 bn in 2010 to a multi-billion business of top strategic importance (market volume of ~27 bn estimated for 2011)

Management summary

2The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

• This threatens the profitability and even the existence of many high tech companies. Affected companies are taking action:

– In all surveyed companies, RE are now a management/board level issue

– Companies prepare/apply several different strategies to tackle the RE challenge, especially "secure supplies" and "reduce usage"; applied levers vary

• We have applied our proven scenario technique to forecast the RE price development

– Prices for LIGHT RE are expected to decrease in the short to medium term depending on the behavior of China and the extent/timing of substitution

– Prices for HEAVY RE are expected to increase in the short term and stay constant/gradually decrease in the long term

Page 3: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

This study is based on extensive research by Roland Berger as well as the feedback from ~30 interviewees

• Identification and analysis of ~150 documents related to RE

Roland Bergerresearch

Expert interviews with affectd companies

• Completion of ~20 interviews with experts from affected companies (mostly with the

• Completion of ~10 interviews with contacts from different areas

Otherexpert interviews

Sources of the study

3The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

to RE– Studies– Press releases– Speeches/presentations– Governmental programs– Company publications

– Analyst reports

• Development of databases, e.g. on mines/mining projects outside of China including details on their reserves

companies (mostly with the head of purchasing)

from different areas– Associations, e.g. VDA

(German Association of the Automotive Industry))

– Government institutions, e.g. Deutsche Rohstoff-agentur in der Bundes-anstalt für Geowissen-schaften und Rohstoffe

– Universities, e.g. Institute for Electrical Engineering

– Other, e.g. Asian Metal

28%

18%

54%

Other high techindustries e.g. lighting

Wind power

Automotive (OEMs &suppliers)

Source: Roland Berger

Page 4: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Study contents

THE CHALLENGE: Rare Earth prices are skyrocketing, many high tech companies are affectedA.THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at B.

4The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at affected companies, three strategies can be differentiatedB.THE OUTLOOK: Factors in four dimensions will influence the future price developmentC.OUR COMPANY: We are supporting several clients in finding adequate responses to their Rare Earth challengeD.

Page 5: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Rare Earth Description

• Umbrella term for 17 elements, e.g. Neodymium or Dysprosium

• RE are not really "rare", but evenly spread over the Earth's crust. Rare are only economically exploitable reserves

Rare Earth are a group of 17 metals which are requi red for many high tech applications – And they are not really "ra re"

5The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

economically exploitable reserves

• RE can only be extracted jointly, the volume of single RE thus depends on the composition of the natural mineral deposit

• RE are used in numerous high tech applications, e.g.

– Permanent magnets used in e-motors or generators of wind turbines

– Phosphors used in LEDs, lighting or flat screens

– Automotive catalysts or batteries

Source: Roland Berger Research

Page 6: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

A total of ~137 k tons of Rare Earths will be deman ded by various high tech industries in 2011e

Share of Rare Earth applications in 2011e

Magnets

Glass/Polishings/CeramicsE.g. glass additives, polishing powder

Polishingpowder (19.0)

Glass additives (8.2)

Magnets (26.8)

La Ce Pr Nd Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Other

6.0 12.4 0.7

2.0 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.3

5.9 18.8 0.5 0.1 1.5

2.3 1.6 0.8 1.6

OXIDE USAGE ['000 tons]

Ceramics (13.6)

TOTAL DEMAND [137 k tons]Y

0.2

7.2

BACKUP

6The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

5%7%

18%

20% 20%

30%

MagnetsE.g. electric vehic-les, consumer elec-tronics, renewable power generation

Metal alloy/batteriesE.g. hybrid/ electric vehicles, energy storage

Phosphor/luminescenceE.g. LEDs, lighting, flat screens

Others

CatalystsE.g. automotive catalysts, fluid cracking

Magnets (26.8)

Auto catalysts (9.5)

FCC1) (19.0)

5.9 18.8 0.5 0.1 1.5

0.5 8.6 0.2 0.3

7.5 5.0 0.5 1.5 0.5

2.5 5.0 0.5 1.6

0.8 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.4

1.3 2.7 0.3 1.0 0.1 0.1

39.9 43.5 9.0 25.0 0.6 0.80.5 0.5 1.5 0.3

17.1 1.9

Batteryalloy (14.9)

Metallurgyex. batt. (9.6)

Phos-phors (9.5)

Others (6.8)

Total (137.0)

Source: Kingsnorth (IMCOA); CIBC; REITA; Öko-Institut; Roland Berger

1) Fluid catalytic cracking - conversion process used in petroleum refineries

6.6

1.3

15.3

Page 7: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Kutessay II

Kyanefjeld

Benjamin River

HoidasLakeThor Lake (Nechalecho)

Bokan Mountain

Bear Lodge

Pea Ridge

Deep SandsMountain Pass

DouglasRiver

KarratSarfartoq

Kringlerne

StrangeLake

Misery Lake

Elk Creek

Wicheeria

LemhiPass/

Clay HowellsArchie Lake

EdenLake

Vale de CavalosKizilcaden

Aksu Diapras

StofkwitzNorra Kärr

Verschiedene in Skandinavien

Kola Peninsula Tomtor (Burannyi)

SeligdarskoveStepogorsk Khalzan Burged

Mushgai Khudag

Khotgor Bayan OboUlba

Sichuan

There are numerous mines / deposits worldwide – Few, however, can be expected to start production before 2015

Selected RE mines / deposits (2011)

BACKUP

7The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

Planned (projects)

Deposits

In use

Mines / deposits

Ionic clay regionsVarious in Vietnam

Browns RangeNolans Bore

DubboMount Weld

Wigu Hill

ZandkopsdriftSteenkampskraal

Pea RidgeMountain Pass

Chavara/Manivalakurichi

Iron Hill

Pass/DiamondCreek

Archie LakeElliot Lake/Eco Ridge

Pitinga

Salitre

Buena Norte

Catalao

AraxáTapira

Morro DosSeis LagosRodeo

Los Molles

Lofdal

QMM

TantalusNkombwa Hill

Kangan-kunde

Mrima HillNigualia

GhurayyanAksu Diapras

Amba Dongar

AluvaPerak

Cummins Range

Yangibana Olympic DamWIM150

e.g. Dong PaoOrissa

Production before 2015 (announcement)

Sichuan

China

19

Russia USA India

3,155 13 22

Australia

1,6

Other

Estimated global reserves[m tons]

Globally, ~270 projects are known in 28 countries; <10% are expected to make it

Source: Deutsche Rohstoffagentur

Page 8: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Financial and

economic crisis

Financial and

economic crisis

Following a period of dumping prices, RE prices are skyrocketing –Example: Neodymium & Dysprosium used for permanent magnets

Price development Neodymium & Dysprosium metal – 01/05 to 08/11

400

450

500

[USD/kg]ExportFOB China

[USD/kg]

3,500

3,000

ExportFOBChina

8The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptxSource: Asian Metal

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

20122011201020092008200720062005

+5,799% Chinalocal

Neodymium metalDysprosium metal

500

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

0

20122011201020092008200720062005

+5,916%

Chinalocal

China

Page 9: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

The skyrocketing RE prices threaten the existence o f some companies – Example automotive supply chain

Example automotive supply chain: RE1) share of total value add [%]

89.0%

Comment

• RE account for a significant share of the value add of compa-

Tier 3: Magnet supplier

Tier 2: E-motor supplier

Tier 1: Steering system supplier

AutomotiveOEM

9The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptxSource: DIW; Roland Berger

RE magnet E-motor Steering system Hybrid car

1.4%0.1%5.2%

0.5%

41.0%

6.0%

89.0%

45.0%

value add of compa-nies at early stages of high tech value chains

• Recent price increases have exploded this share – threatening the existence of these companies if they cannot pass on the price increases

• Strong dependencies in value chains also affect OEMs

Average July 2011Average 2010

1) Neodymium and Dysprosium (used for permanent magnets)

Page 10: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

For other companies, the skyrocketing RE prices sev erely cut their profits – Example lighting industry

Example lighting industry: Cost impact of RE price increases

0.50.512.50.2 0.3

16.3

360

Resulting cost for RE [EUR m]

Share oflighting revenue 2010 [%]

0.8% 4.8%

Top-down RE demand estimation (REO) ['000 tons]

10The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

15.3

Lighting

3.7

3.3

0.2 0.2

Non-lighting1)

12.0

0.2 0.2

0.11.0 0.1

Lighting manu-facturer

Other lighting manufacturers

1.9

Demand 2010

2.5

0.8

YttriumEuropiumTerbium

5

150

120

2011 (based on Q2 prices)

360

90

2010

55

2525

2010 [%]

Source: Roland Berger Research

1) Non-lighting includes usage for LCD-TVs 2) Assumption based on market share

Page 11: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

What was once a rather small and widely neglected m arket, has turned into a multi-billion business of top strateg ic importance

RE market volume estimate / extrapolation

Comments

• Due to skyrocketing RE prices, the annual market volume of RE metal has grown more than 10x to

Global annual market volume RE [EUR bn]

Global RE demand ['000 t]

+10%125 ~137

11The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

metal has grown more than 10x to EUR ~27 bn in 2011 (extra-polation)

Main assumptions

• Demand 2008 and forecast 2011 per RE element

• Average prices 2008 for RE metal based on Asian Metal

• Average prices June/July 2011 based on Asian Metal assumed for full year 2011

+1,029%

2011e

~27.1

2008

2.4

Source: Asian Metal; Kingsnorth; Roland Berger

Page 12: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

China has understood the strategic importance of RE already long ago – Today, they almost completely dominate the sup ply

Selected quotes

"The Middle East has its oil, China has its Rare Earths."

Deng Xiaoping 1) (1992)

Supply chain for RE magnets

Current market share China

RE extractionand cracking

(RE concentrate)>95%

12The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

1) De facto leader of the PR China 1979-1997 2) President of the PR China 1993-2003 3) Premier of the State Council of the PR China 2003-today; PhD-awarded geologist

"In the beginning of the 80's we sold Rare Earths at the price of salt. But they deserve the price of gold. We are just starting to protect our natural interests."

"The idea is to develop the resource advantage into economic superiority."

Deng Xiaoping 1) (1992)

Wen Jiabao 3) (7/2010)

Jiang Zemin 2) (1999) during a visit of a mining area in Inner Mongolia Smelting

(magnet alloy powder)

>95%

~80%

~80%Magnet production(e.g. NdFeB)

Separation and beneficiating(e.g. Nd, Dy)

Source: Roland Berger Research

Page 13: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Study contents

THE CHALLENGE: Rare Earth prices are skyrocketing, many high tech companies are affectedA.THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at B.

13The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at affected companies, four strategies can be differentiatedB.THE OUTLOOK: Factors in four dimensions will influence the future price developmentC.OUR COMPANY: We are supporting several clients in finding adequate responses to their Rare Earth challengeD.

Page 14: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Affected companies are reacting – In all surveyed co mpanies, RE are now a management/board level issue

• Last year, RE were dealt with on working level in most companies, e.g. typically by purchasing

CommentsOn which hierarchical level is the RE challenge tac kled?

Top management/CEO

100%100%

11%

14The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

• Most companies only had limited transparency on the use of RE in their products

• Now, RE are a top management issues in most affected companies

• Several companies have installed cross-functional, company-wide task forces to tackle the RE challenge

Working level

Middle management

August 2011

22%

78%

August 2010

56%

33%

Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger

Page 15: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Companies typically apply more than one strategy to tackle the RE challenge – Depending also on their perception of th e challenge

Strategies to tackle the RE challenge Application [% of surveyed companies]1)

I "Securesupplies"

II "Reduce

• Secure RE supplies/RE products at competitive prices

• Typical levers: Renegotiation, supplier development, investment, hedging

• Substitute RE through different techni-

22%11% 78%45%

15The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

1) More than one strategy possible per company

II "Reduceusage"

III "Relocateproductionto China"

IV "Weather the storm"

• Substitute RE through different techni-cal solutions or reduce usage of RE

• Levers: Substitution, material efficiency

• Relocate production to China• Lever: Benefit from Chinese local RE

prices (typically lower / without export taxes) and more reliable supply

• No measures initiated – Assumption that RE situation will be back to normal in the short-/mid-term

Very criticalCriticalNot critical

45% 67%11% 11%

0%

22%

Company perception of RE challenge:

Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger

Page 16: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

There are many concrete examples for these strategi es – Some of them have received significant attention in the pre ss

Strategy

I "Secure supplies"

Company

Siemens

Measures

• Announcement of a JV with Lynas Corp. (Siemens 55%, Lynas 45%) to establish an end-to-end supply chain from "mine to magnet (to application)"

• Extraction of RE at Mount Weld, Australia (official

Application

Generators for wind power plants, high-tech products

Selected company examples

16The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

II "Reduce usage"

III "Relocate production to China"

Automotive supplier

• Extraction of RE at Mount Weld, Australia (official opening 08/2011) and separation/processing in Malaysia

• Systematic evaluation of RE substitution possibilities for all products− Identification and technical evaluation of substitutes− Commercial evaluation (business cases)− Decision based on evaluations & customer feedback

• Program to increase material efficiency across products, e.g. reduce use of Dysprosium (heavy RE)

tech products for automotive applications

E-motors used for automotive applications

Hitachi Metals

• Announcement to start manufacturing of Neodymium-based magnets in China from 2013 onwards1)

Permanent magents

1) In addition, Hitachi will form a JV with Molycorp for the production of RE alloys and magnets in the U.S.

Source: Roland Berger Research

Page 17: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

To implement the strategies, companies apply a vari ety of levers –Substitution and higher material efficiency are app lied most

Companies' strategies correlated with perceived criticality [%]

Strategy Timing Lever/application [% of surveyed companies]

I "Secure supplies" 56%

56%

Renegotiation (existing suppliers)

New suppliers (identification/development)

Short-term

Mid-/long-term

17The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx17

II "Reduce usage"

III "Relocate prod. to China"

Further levers

33%

44%1)

67%

0%

67%

0%

JV/direct investment (mining projects)

Physical/financial hedging

Substitution

Material efficiency

Adjustment of product portfolio

Relocate production to China

Passing on prices to customers

Recycling of products

Long-term

Short-/mid-term

Mid-/long-term

Mid-/long-term

Mid-/long-term

Short-term

Long-term 22%

44%

Mid-/long-term

Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger

1) Including companies that are not yet applying this lever but consider it

Page 18: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Study contents

THE CHALLENGE: Rare Earth prices are skyrocketing, many high tech companies are affectedA.THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at B.

18The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at affected companies, four strategies can be differentiatedB.THE OUTLOOK: Factors in four dimensions will influence the future price developmentC.OUR COMPANY: We are supporting several clients in finding adequate responses to their Rare Earth challengeD.

Page 19: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

To get an understanding of the likely future develo pment of RE prices, we have applied our proven scenario techniq ue

Identification of factors influencing RE prices

Clustering of "critical uncertainties"

Derivation of pricing scenarios

Critical uncertainties

Trends

Hig

h

A

Criticaluncertainties

Trends

Hig

h

B

Cluster/axis A

I II III

Roland Berger scenario planning – Approach

19The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

Secondary factors

Impa

ct

Probability

Low

Low High

• Identification of factors influencing RE prices

• Evaluation of factors (impact / probability based on expert interviews as well as research)

• Clustering of the critical uncer-tainties to differentiate scenarios

• Trends as the basis for scenarios• Elimination of secondary factors

A

Impa

ct

Probability

Low

Low High

B

Secondary factors

• Selection of the two most important clusters among the "critical uncertainties"

• Derivation of pricing scenarios based on these clusters (matrix)

Cluster/ axis B

S1 S2

S3 S4

Source: Roland Berger

Page 20: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Factors in four dimensions influence the future pri ce development of RE – China as currently monopolistic player most important

SUPPLY DEMAND• Sufficient worldwide reserves

2 3

1. STRATEGY CHINA

• Use of RE in almost all high

• Early awareness of the relevance of RE • RE policy with clear strategic goals :

– Put pressure on high-tech companies to move their production to China

– Competitive advantage for Chin. companies• Systematic implementation of the strategy

(develop a monopoly throughout the entire value chain; currently: exploit monopoly)

I FACTORS INFLUENCING RE PRICES

20The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

Reaction of other countries and big industry players

• Sufficient worldwide reserves• 1965-1990 dominated by Mine

Mountain Pass (USA), meanwhile China monopoly (>95% in 2010)

• Opening of a new mine requires 5-10 years ; in addition, separation and processing capacities are required (radioactivity!)

• Roland Berger prediction : Even in case of a significant demand growth for light RE, no/little undersupply for light RE ; However, depending on extent/timing of substitution undersupply for heavy RE

4

• Use of RE in almost all high tech fields such as e-mobility, green tech. Examples: – Permanent magnets for

e-motors/generators– Fluid cracking catalysts– Phosphors for LED etc.– Batteries

• Future demand primarily influen-ced by growth in these fields as well as extent/timing of substi-tution/increase of material efficiency

value chain; currently: exploit monopoly)

• Late awareness of the relevance of RE• Other countries: Forceful reaction of USA

and especially Japan (JOBMEC) , Europe cautious

• Big industry players : Several strategies (mostly "secure supply " & "reduce usage ")

Factors influencing RE prices

Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger

Page 21: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

>20 factors relevant for the price development of R E were identified and assessed – Differentiation of light a nd heavy RE

1. Opening of new mines with primarily light RE (volume growth 10-20% p.a. until 2016)

2. Opening of new mines with significant share of heavy RE not until 2015 (volume growth <10% p.a.)

3. Preparation / processing capacities are

Supply Demand

5. Worldwide growth of relevant demand industries (8-15% p.a. growth)

6. Light RE: Significant substitution

7. Heavy RE: Significant substitution and increase in 1

27

1617

20 21

6

Price-influencing factors and their assessment

Hig

h Critical uncertainties Trends

I FACTORS INFLUENCING RE PRICES

21The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

3. Preparation / processing capacities are not a significant bottleneck

4. Significant disruptions of the RE-value chain e.g. by political conflicts (4.1), natural catastrophes (4.2), strikes in mines (4.3), etc.

10. Exertion of political pressure on China (WTO etc.)

11. Increase of process costs due to compliance/increase of environ-mental specifications (laws)

12. Discovery of new reserves13. Significant advancements in

extraction/processing technology14. Intensification of legal regulations

(e.g. Dodd-Frank-Act)15. Significant increase of exploration

cost share of RE-cost

substitution and increase in material efficiency

8. Increase in industry cooperations, JVs, etc.

9. Implementation of product recycling

Reaction of the RoW

16. Keeping/further reduction of export quota

17. Relaxation of export quota18. Keeping/further increase of ex-

port tariffs (today 25% on RE)19. Reduction of export tariffs20. Further consolidation of the RE

industry and direct government influence (e.g. Baotou Steel)

21. Closure of all illegal mines (especially south China)

China's strategy

Impa

ct

Probability

Secondary factors

5

4.1

1

11

4.2

4.312

13

18

10

8

14

15

6

19

3

9

Low

HighLow

Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger

Page 22: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Factors with relevant impact on RE prices were clus tered– Critical uncertainties form the basis for the pric e scenarios

16. Keeping/further reduction of export quota17. Relaxation of export quota18. Keeping/further increase of ex-port tariffs (today 25% on RE)19. Reduction of export tariffs

More liberal Chinese RE policy

12

6

20 21More liberal

RE policy Signif. substi -

Critical uncertainties Trends

71617

II CRITICAL UNCERTAINTIES

Categorization of influential factors

Hig

h

22The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

1. Opening of new mines with primarily light RE (volume growth 10-20% p.a. until 2016)

2. Opening of new mines with significant share of heavy RE not until 2015 (volume growth <10% p.a.)

3. Preparation / processing capacities are not a significant bottleneck5. Worldwide growth of relevant recipient industries (8-15% p.a.

growth)20. Further consolidation of the RE industry and direct government

influence21. Closure of all illegal mines (especially south China)

Trends

No further consideration of secondary factors

5

136RE policy

Chinasubsti -tution

Significant substitution

6. Light RE: Significant substitution7. Heavy RE: Significant substitution & increase in material efficiency

1819

Impa

ct

Probability

Low

HighLow

Source: Expert interviews; Roland Berger

Page 23: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

On this basis four schematic price scenarios can be differentiated- Light RE less critical, heavy RE more critical

III PRICE SCENARIOS

App

lies Light RE: Mid-term relaxation

Heavy RE: Mid-term relaxationLight RE: Short-term relaxationHeavy RE: Mid-term relaxation

Schematic price scenarios light/heavy RE (metal export FOB China)

23The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

Color gradient: Increasing uncertainty

Source: Expert interviews, Roland Berger

Doe

s no

t app

lyS

igni

fican

t sub

stitu

tion

Does not apply AppliesMore liberal Chinese RE policy (export quota, tarif fs)

Light RE: Mid-term relaxationHeavy RE: No relaxation

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Light RE: Short-term relaxationHeavy RE: No relaxation

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Page 24: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Study contents

THE CHALLENGE: Rare Earth prices are skyrocketing, many high tech companies are affectedA.THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at B.

24The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

THE REACTION: Rare Earth are a board level issue at affected companies, four strategies can be differentiatedB.THE OUTLOOK: Factors in four dimensions will influence the future price developmentC.OUR COMPANY: We are supporting several clients in finding adequate responses to their Rare Earth challengeD.

Page 25: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

We have successfully supported various companies in finding adequate responses for their RE challenge/comparabl e issues

Selected references 2010/2011

Company

Automotive supplier

Project objectives Main recommendations/ results

• Company-wide, cross-functional project to comprehensively tackle the Rare Earth challenge

• Scope included a long-term strategy as well as securing supply, passing on additional cost to clients and identifying technological substitutes

• Long-term strategy defined based on price scenarios• Transparency created on RE volumes/ profit risk• Customer strategies developed and implem. initiated• Supplier strategy defined and implementation initiated• Substitutes identified and roughly evaluated

25The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptxSource: Roland Berger

Specialty chemicals manufacturer

Automotive manufacturer

Wind turbine manufacturer

Photovoltaiccompany

• Setup of an agent based model for the worldwide supply and demand of specialty chemicals

• Analysis of different scenarios by varying pricing, raw material price, new capacity ramp-up time, etc.

• Price drivers identified and impact quantified• Increase of prices downstream• Ramp-up of new production plant

• Securing supplies for critical materials in the electronics supply chain (e.g. magnetic metals , polymers, electrolytes )

• Scenario planning for future forecasts• Introduction of risk mitigation in development phase

• Material risk management including tools and systems established

• Extension of supply chain monitoring from tier-1 to tier-n anchored

• Modular, repeatable levers to secure supply defined

• Identification of risks associated with Rare Earth usage in power generation assets

• Validation of alternative solutions to ensure material supply in critical value streams (plan B)

• In depth analysis of the possibilities and impact of material replacements

• Business cases

• Setup of a model for the worldwide supply and demand development of highly purified Silicon

• Analysis of different scenarios by varying pricing, raw material price, new capacity ramp-up time, etc.

• Price drivers identified and impact quantified• Hedging strategies developed• Recommendations on alternative technologies developed

Page 26: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Depending on the client' s business situation, a ta ilored approch is necessary

IMP

AC

T

High PRIORITY II PRIORITY I

4

26

Necessity of tailored solutions – Client example

Key QUESTIONS Program design – Client example

• How much am I affected? What substances, which part of the BOM, which volumes, which financial effects?

• What will happen? What are possible scenarios? How much will it affect my future results, my financing, my

26The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

Transparency1

Allocation/ Supplier management2

Hedging3

Downstream pricing4

Regulatory intervention5

Volume and production relocation6

Joint ventures/ partnerships7

Redesign/ substitution8

IMPLEMENTATION TIMESlow Fast

IMP

AC

T

Low PRIORITY III

3

5 1

26

78

Source: Roland Berger

much will it affect my future results, my financing, my stock price?

• What is already ongoing in my organization? Do I have the right processes and people in place? Do I come to decisions fast enough?

• Do I already address all possible levers? What do competitors, industry associations, governments do?

• What has been effective and efficient levers in similar, former situations? How is the situation different? What can I learn?

• How successful can the measures be? How long will they take? What effort will they need? What are trade-offs?

• What is suitable to my business model? To my culture? To my customers? To my stakeholder?

Page 27: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

We propose a two-step approach to systematically ad dress the supply chain risks arising from skyrocketing RE pri ces

1

• Analyze current situation– Demand for each

RE element– Importance for

• Create project modules for identified levers

• Set up project controlling to constantly monitor ov erall status

• Implement selected measures– Short-term e.g. hedging

Lever implementation and monitoring

2

Transparency

27The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptxSource: Roland Berger

– Importance for business model

– Impact of increased prices on P&L

– Supply structure, i.e. suppliers and contracts

• Identify critical REs

• Identify and prioritize suitable levers/ measures

– Short-term e.g. hedging– Long-term e.g. joint ventures, direct investment

3-4 weeks

MODULE 2

MODULE 3

MODULE 1

Several months

Page 28: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

We are the ideal partner for clients to drive such a project

We combine broad industry expertise in high tech fields with in-depth functional know-how in Operations Strategy to understand your bill of material's technical and business needs

Why Roland Berger?

From our procurement project experience we deduct the necessary frameworks and tools. Our global research centers have access to the data relevant to current and future exploration sites

28The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

global research centers have access to the data relevant to current and future exploration sites and the expected costs

We develop leading edge functional methodologies such as scenario planning together with our academic network and clients. This allows us to develop recommendations under the high uncertainties given in the Rare Earth demand, supply and price development

With our strong market position in China , we have access to decision makers in China to get more realistic and upfront information on future market and regulatory developments

With our global, cross-industry network of experts , we have detailed knowledge about the demand for the relevant raw materials

Source: Roland Berger

Page 29: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

Your contacts

Thomas

Rinn

PARTNER

Löffelstraße 4670597 Stuttgart

Tel.: +49 (711) 3275 7349

Dr. Thomas

Schlick

PARTNER

Bockenheimer Landstraße 2-860306 Frankfurt

Tel.: +49 (69) 29924 6202

Dr. Sebastian

Durst

PROJECT MANAGER

Löffelstraße 4670597 Stuttgart

Tel.: +49 (711) 3275 7216

29The Rare Earth challenge VF.pptx

Dirk

Kohlen

PRINCIPAL

Mies-van-der-Rohe-Straße 680807 München

Tel.: +49 (89) 9230 8478Mobile: +49 (160) 744 2142

[email protected]

Dr. Guido

Hertel

PARTNER

Mies-van-der-Rohe-Strasse 680807 München

Tel.: +49 (89) 9230 8580Mobile: +49 (160) 744 8580

[email protected]

Tel.: +49 (711) 3275 7349Mobile: +49 (160) 744 7349

[email protected]

Dr. Michael

Alexander

Mies-van-der-Rohe-Strasse 680807 München

Tel.: +49 (40) 37631 4233Mobile: +49 (171) 558 6308

[email protected]

Tel.: +49 (69) 29924 6202Mobile: +49 (160) 744 6202

[email protected]

Tel.: +49 (711) 3275 7216Mobile: +49 (160) 744 7216

[email protected]

SENIOR ADVISOR

Page 30: 2011_The Rare Earth Challenge - How companies react and what they expect for the future

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